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国金证券:“金九银十”旺季中行业分化的特征与逻辑
智通财经网· 2025-10-09 22:39
智通财经APP获悉,国金证券发布研报称,9月经济总体平稳运行,内需在"金九银十"旺季的带动下边 际回暖,但各行业表现冷热不均。供给侧治理与产业升级先行见效,对应上游资源品与新兴制造业、高 端装备制造业景气度先行占优;需求侧刺激与消费信心修复滞后使得传统原材料、消费板块"旺季不 旺"。展望后续,若财政支出加速、更多稳地产&促消费的需求侧配套支持政策能够落地,则传统原材 料、消费板块景气度有望回暖,行业间分化格局趋于收敛。反之,上游资源品阶段性占优的格局可能持 续。与此同时,受益于国内产业升级、海外制造业修复的制造业方向有望维持较高景气。 国金证券主要观点如下: 9月行业信息总结 回顾9月产销旺季中各行业景气度的变动,整体上旺季氛围仍在,行业间表现分化。其中,上游资源 品、中游新兴&高端设备制造业,旺季成色较浓。相较而言,上游原材料、下游消费板块旺季成色不 足。具体来看:1)上游资源与原材料行业——①上游资源品:"反内卷"政策推进与供给约束下煤炭、 工业金属旺季供给收缩、需求增加,价格延续上行,旺季成色最浓。②上游原材料:钢铁、建材在传统 投资链条景气度低位,旺季改善有限。2)中游制造环节——新兴制造业、高端装备 ...
金融工程 10月主动选股
Huachuang Securities· 2025-10-09 14:55
金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 【点评报告】 金融工程 10 月主动选股 组合回顾 9 月选股组合个股平均涨跌幅为 5.24%,胜率为 57.9%。组合的月度收益为 4.97%,相对万得全 A 跑赢 2.17%,本年度至今绝对回报 50.35%,相对万得全 A 跑赢 23.93%。 本月回顾 从通胀数据来看,PPI 同比降幅明显收窄,CPI 同比回落幅度较大。从金融数 据来看,M1 同比增长 6%,较上月抬升 0.4%。9 月制造业 PMI 指数为 49.8%, 好于前值 49.4%。汇率方面,近期人民币对美元升值。基于上述的宏观数据, 我们判断,小市值因子表现或走弱,10 月份中盘股和大盘股表现或好于小盘 股。 本月电新、有色和电子表现较好,国防军工、银行和综合金融表现较差。以中 证 500 代表的中盘股表现好于以中证 1000 和中证 2000 为代表的小盘股。从 风险因子的角度来看,beta 因子、市值因子、成长因子和波动率因子表现较为 突出,表明市场对高弹性,偏成长类的龙头股较为青睐。 10 月观点 10 月市值风格层面看好中盘,成长价值层面看好成长风格。 M1 的抬升表明流动性依然处于上行,PPI ...
沪指创十年新高 A股10月开门红 释放了什么信号?
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 13:57
Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant rise on the first trading day after the National Day holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3900-point mark, reaching a ten-year high of 3936.58 points, and closing at 3933.97 points, marking the highest level since August 2015 [1][2] - The Shenzhen Component Index also reached a new high of 13806.69 points, closing up 1.47% at 13725.56 points, while the STAR 50 and ChiNext indices hit new yearly highs, increasing by 2.93% and 0.73% respectively [2] Market Signals - The market surge indicates a significant enhancement in market sentiment and investor confidence, with foreign capital showing increased willingness to allocate funds to the Chinese market, as evidenced by a record net inflow of foreign capital in September [2][4] - The increase in financing balance suggests a signal of liquidity easing, further boosting short-term upward momentum in the market [2][4] Trading Volume and Sector Performance - The trading volume in the A-share market surged, with a total turnover of 2.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 471.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [3] - Among various sectors, rare earth and nuclear fusion indices led the gains, both rising over 7%, while the non-ferrous metals sector saw the highest increase at 7.60% [3] Factors Driving Market Growth - The market's rise is attributed to several factors, including heightened policy expectations related to the "14th Five-Year Plan," strong performance in the semiconductor and non-ferrous metals sectors, and a favorable external environment with global markets generally rising during the National Day holiday [4][5] - The market is expected to continue benefiting from long-term policy layouts and a relatively loose liquidity environment, with opportunities concentrated in the technology growth sector [5][6] Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the A-share market may continue to experience high-level fluctuations, with structural investment opportunities emerging, particularly in sectors such as AI, energy storage, and precious metals [6][7] - The market is anticipated to maintain a trend of upward movement with continued inflow of incremental capital, supported by global liquidity remaining loose and positive developments in the technology sector [6][7]
A股10月开门红,释放什么信号?
第一财经· 2025-10-09 13:18
释放了什么信号? 2025.10. 09 本文字数:2144,阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 黄思瑜 国庆长假后首个交易日,A股迎来10月开门红,沪指突破3900点,创出十年新高。 10月9日,沪指高开高走,盘中一举突破3900点关口,最高冲至3936.58点,创下2015年8月以来 的十年新高,最终收报3933.97点。距今最近的一次上证指数超过3900点,是在2015年8月18日。 "沪指创下近十年新高,具有重要的市场意义。"银河证券首席策略分析师杨超对第一财经称,这释 放了市场信心显著增强、外资增配意愿增强、流动性宽松等信号。 对于后市行情预判,多位券商分析师认为,10月是关键的政策布局窗口,也存在美联储再次降息预 期,大盘可能继续高位震荡,后续市场风险偏好有望维持积极。 9日,A股"涨声一片"。 沪指突破3900点,创出近十年新高,收涨1.32%,收报3933.97点;深证成指也创出新高 13806.69点,最终收涨1.47%,收报13725.56点;科创50、创业板指均刷新年内新高,分别上涨 2.93%、0.73%。 杨超告诉记者,这释放了三方面信号:首先,标志着市场情绪和投资者信心的提升; ...
沪指创十年新高,A股10月开门红,释放了什么信号?
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 12:16
Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a significant rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 3900-point mark, reaching a ten-year high of 3936.58 points on October 9, 2023, and closing at 3933.97 points, marking a 1.32% increase [1][2] - The Shenzhen Component Index also reached a new high of 13806.69 points, closing up 1.47% at 13725.56 points, while the STAR 50 and ChiNext indices hit new yearly highs, increasing by 2.93% and 0.73% respectively [2] Market Signals - The market's performance indicates a significant enhancement in investor confidence and market sentiment, with foreign capital showing increased willingness to allocate funds to the Chinese market, as evidenced by a record net inflow of foreign capital in September 2023 [2][4] - The increase in financing balances suggests a signal of liquidity easing, further boosting short-term upward momentum in the market [2][4] Sector Performance - The trading volume in the market surged, with a total turnover of 2.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 471.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [3] - Among various sectors, rare earth and nuclear fusion indices led the gains, both rising over 7%, while other indices such as copper and rare metals also saw significant increases [3] Factors Influencing Market Trends - The rise in A-shares is attributed to several factors, including heightened policy expectations related to the "14th Five-Year Plan," strong performance in the semiconductor and precious metals sectors, and a favorable external environment with global markets showing positive trends [4][6] - Analysts predict that October will be a critical period for policy layout, with expectations of further easing from the Federal Reserve, which could benefit both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [5][6] Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that investment opportunities in October may be concentrated in technology growth sectors, with a focus on AI, energy storage, and high-end manufacturing [5][7] - The recommended investment themes include optimizing resource cycles, structural recovery in consumption, and focusing on high-quality enterprises as competition improves [7]
10月市场观点:假期要闻概览与业绩线索指引-20251009
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-10-09 12:10
10 月市场观点:假期要闻概览与业绩线索指引 1、国庆假期要闻概览 假期居民旅游出行数据旺盛,且跨境旅游消费成为重要亮点,院线票房表现相对 偏弱;海外多国政局再添变数,美国政府时隔七年再度"停摆"、法国总理请辞、 日本首位女首相或将诞生,美、日、欧货币与财政政策走向不确定性增多。总体 看,海外政局变数与美联储降息预期波动更多主导资产定价,权益资产普遍震荡 收涨,黄金与比特币新高(详见正文)。 2、三季报业绩线索梳理 综合工业企业利润、中观数据等跟踪,预计三季报值得关注的方向主要涉及四类 (详见正文):一是受益于外部降息和新兴需求拉动的有色金属(贵金属、工业金 属、小金属),二是反内卷催化下实现价格企稳的钢铁、煤炭、化工、光伏等;三 是延续稳健量增的汽车、锂电、电力、物流等;四是海内外需求共振驱动的 AI 条 线(算力相关)。 3、月度市场回顾: 证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2025 10 09 年 月 日 投资策略 9 月以来,海外降息如期落地且连续降息预期升温,黄金重启上行并创历史新高, 港股明显补涨,A 股表现相对偏弱。月度级别看,交投情绪重返合理区间,两融入 场放缓,ETF 则 ...
A股沸腾!上证指数站上3900点,谁将顶起“红十月”
Bei Ke Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 08:43
Market Performance - On October 9, the Shanghai Composite Index broke the 3900-point mark for the first time in ten years, closing at 3933.97 points, up 1.32% [4][6][10] - The ChiNext Index and Shenzhen Component Index also saw increases of 0.73% and 1.47%, respectively, with the STAR 50 Index rising over 5% in the morning session [6][10] Sector Performance - Over 3100 stocks rose, with significant gains in the metals and technology sectors, particularly in nuclear fusion and rare earths, which surged nearly 8% [7][8] - Precious metals saw a notable increase of 9.28%, with several stocks hitting the daily limit [8][9] - Basic metals and power generation equipment rose over 5%, while sectors like real estate and tourism lagged behind [8][10] Investment Outlook - Multiple institutions are optimistic about the A-share market in October, anticipating a focus on third-quarter reports and the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" policies [5][11][13] - Key sectors expected to benefit include AI, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a strong emphasis on the economic fundamentals and continued capital inflow [14][15] - The market is expected to maintain an upward trend, driven by policy guidance and industry catalysts [14][15]
有色金属板块大涨!黄金表现最强,上涨空间还有多大?
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-10-09 06:14
东证衍生品研究院宏观策略首席分析师徐颖表示,金价上涨的核心驱动因素——美国政府债务问题,以 及去美元化交易的中长期逻辑依然存在,这决定了黄金将继续保持上涨格局。同时,美联储独立性问题 从长期来看仍有进一步发酵的可能,一旦与其他因素形成共振,将推动金价继续上扬。 今天上午,有色金属板块大涨,贵金属板块涨势最强,四川黄金、山东黄金涨停。 工业金属板块中,云南铜业、江西铜业等个股涨停。能源金属板块中,赣锋锂业、天齐锂业等个股大 涨。稀土永磁板块中,包钢股份、北方稀土等个股大涨。 国庆假期期间,现货黄金价格持续上行,屡创历史新高。10月8日,现货黄金价格首次突破4000美元/盎 司关口,引发市场热议。 国家外汇管理局10月7日发布的数据显示,9月末我国黄金储备为7406万盎司,环比增加4万盎司,为我 国央行连续第11个月增持黄金。 ...
时隔3700余天 沪指重返3900点
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-10-09 04:41
今日上午,上证指数突破3900点。上一次A股"见到"3900点,是在2015年8月18日,距今已有3700余天。 盘面上,"科技+有色金属"成为最强双主线。有色金属板块中,贵金属板块领涨,工业金属、小金属、稀土永磁等板块上涨。两大龙头股紫金矿业、洛阳 钼业联手大涨,盘中股价均创历史新高。 科技股全面发酵,存储芯片、消费电子等板块涨幅居前。通富微电"一字"涨停,晶圆代工双雄中芯国际涨超7%、华虹公司"20CM"涨停,兆易创新、澜起 科技、中微公司、拓荆科技等龙头股也大涨,这些龙头股盘中股价均创历史新高。 此外,可控核聚变、固态电池、量子科技等板块也大涨。 上午收盘,上证指数上涨1.24%,报3931.07点,深证成指上涨1.75%,创业板指上涨1.77%。市场半日成交超1.72万亿元。 科技股全面走强 今天上午,科技股全面走强,半导体产业链大涨,存储芯片、先进封装等板块涨幅居前。消费电子概念上涨,AI PC、AI手机等板块涨幅居前。算力产业 链表现活跃,PCB、光模块等板块上涨。 | 德邦科技 ■ 688035 | 63.18 | 14.56% | 89.9 Z | | --- | --- | --- | -- ...
时隔3700余天,沪指重返3900点
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-10-09 04:28
今日上午,上证指数突破3900点。上一次A股"见到"3900点,是在2015年8月18日,距今已有3700余天。 盘面上,"科技+有色金属"成为最强双主线。有色金属板块中,贵金属板块领涨,工业金属、小金属、稀土永磁等板块上涨。两大龙头股紫金矿业、洛阳 钼业(603993)联手大涨,盘中股价均创历史新高。 科技股全面发酵,存储芯片、消费电子等板块涨幅居前。通富微电(002156)"一字"涨停,晶圆代工双雄中芯国际涨超7%、华虹公司"20CM"涨停,兆易 创新(603986)、澜起科技、中微公司、拓荆科技等龙头股也大涨,这些龙头股盘中股价均创历史新高。 此外,可控核聚变、固态电池、量子科技等板块也大涨。 上午收盘,上证指数上涨1.24%,报3931.07点,深证成指上涨1.75%,创业板指上涨1.77%。市场半日成交超1.72万亿元。 科技股全面走强 今天上午,科技股全面走强,半导体产业链大涨,存储芯片、先进封装等板块涨幅居前。消费电子概念上涨,AI PC、AI手机等板块涨幅居前。算力产业 链表现活跃,PCB、光模块等板块上涨。 | | 存储芯片 1759.24 3.93% | | C | | --- | --- ...