业内早已两极分化：高盛豪言看涨至300美元/盎司，唱多者视其为"绿色革命的硬通货"；但技术派却警 告RSI指标已飙至93.8，逼近历史泡沫区间。普通投资者在"怕错过"的焦虑中蜂拥入场，有人一口气砸 30万买入银砖，却不知自己可能正站在悬崖边缘。 在此郑重提醒：白银虽有基本面支撑，但绝非稳赚不赔的"理财神器"。若真有意参与，务必三思而后行 ——优先选择银行标准投资银条或低费率ETF，严格控制仓位（建议不超过流动资产的5%），坚决远 离高溢价纪念币与高杠杆衍生品。记住，当街头巷尾都在谈论"抄底白银"时，或许正是最该冷静的时 候。 财富从不青睐盲从者，只眷顾清醒的人。 然而，狂欢之下，危机四伏。白银虽贵为"贵金属"，但其市场规模仅为黄金十分之一，波动性却是后者 的2-3倍。就在不久前，单日暴跌13%的惨剧让高杠杆投资者一夜亏掉47万元。更别提那些溢价高达15% 的纪念银币和非标银条——买时风光，卖时无人接盘，回收价甚至腰斩至7元/克，妥妥的"流动性陷 阱"。 2026年初，一场席卷全国的"白银狂潮"正悄然上演！从郑州珠宝市场到深圳水贝商圈，曾经冷清的投资 银条柜台如今人山人海，大妈们推着小车抢购15公斤银砖，金店甚 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 港股科技ETF（513020）跟踪的是港股通科技指数（931573），覆盖【互联网+半导体+创新药+新能源 车】等港股核心资产，集中体现多元化科技产业特征与港股市场核心科技企业的整体表现。 港股通科技指数相比恒生科技指数超配新能源车、创新药、半导体等行业，从业绩表现来看，从2014年 底基日开始至2025年10月底，港股通科技指数累计收益256.46%，相对恒生科技指数（96.94%）超额近 160%，长期跑赢恒生科技指数、沪港深互联网指数、恒生互联网科技业指数、恒生医疗保健指数等同 类指数。 1月16日，港股科技ETF（513020）回调0.5%，港股或将吹响反攻的号角。 西部证券指出，2026年，在美元回归走弱区间驱动国际资本增配、人民币升值吸引滞留海外的中国资本 流入以及通胀回升叠加潜在的化债政策修复中国基本面这三重因素驱动下，港股将吹响反攻的号角。对 于港股科技行业，2025年其整体相对跑输A股科技，但当前无论从估值的绝对水平还是分位数来看，港 股科技板块估值低于A股，已接近历史区间下限，具备高赔率空间。2026年，恒生科技将迎来"戴维斯 三击"，有望成为弹性最大的方向之一 ...

市场的下跌力量主要来自两个核心领域：银行和半导体。 银行股方面，富国银行以跳空低开3%开局，盘中毫无抵抗，收盘时跌幅扩大至4.61%。 美国银行 下跌3.71%，花旗集团下跌3.37%，就连巨头摩根大通也下跌了0.98%。 半导体板块同样惨淡，艾马克技术重挫6.31%，福尼克斯下跌5.87%，博通跌幅为4.13%，就连近期风光无限的英伟达也下跌了1.38%。 | く 気 | 欧美指数() | | 17 ( | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 最新 | 涨幅, | 浙 | | 道現新 | 49149.63 -0.09% -42.30 | | | | DJIA | | | | | 纳斯达完 | 23471.75 -1.00% -238.12 | | | | NDX | | | | | 标普 500 | 6926.60 -0.53% | | -3741 | | SPX | | | | | 英国富时100 10184.35 0.46% 47.00 | | | | | FTSE | | | | | 德国DAX30 25286.24 -0.53% -134.42 | | | | | GD ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate futures has experienced a rapid increase, driven by multiple factors including policy adjustments, strong downstream demand, and supply disruptions, leading to significant impacts on the entire lithium battery supply chain [1][14]. Price Trends - Lithium carbonate futures prices rose from 130,000 yuan/ton on January 5, 2026, to a peak of 174,000 yuan/ton on January 13, 2026, marking a 33.8% increase within just eight trading days [1][3]. - From a low of 60,000 yuan/ton in the second half of 2025, prices have surged over 180% [3]. Policy Impact - The adjustment of the export tax rebate for battery products, effective April 1, 2026, from 9% to 6%, and its complete cancellation by January 1, 2027, has prompted downstream battery manufacturers to accelerate their procurement of lithium carbonate [6][14]. - This policy change is expected to create a concentrated demand surge before the tax adjustment, particularly benefiting the materials used in ternary batteries and energy storage [6]. Demand Growth - In 2025, China's retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 12.809 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, with December exports soaring by 255% [8]. - Global sales of new energy vehicles are projected to reach 24.75 million units in 2026, continuing to drive demand for lithium battery materials [8]. - The new energy storage sector saw an addition of 34 GW/87 GWh in installed capacity in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a growth of over 65% [8]. Supply Disruptions - The cancellation of mining rights for 27 lithium mines in Yichun, Jiangxi, at the end of 2025 has raised concerns about short-term supply constraints, despite limited actual production capacity [9]. - Domestic lithium salt production decreased by 3.2% month-on-month in December 2025, coupled with maintenance at some enterprises, limiting supply growth [9]. Industry Chain Impact - The rise in lithium carbonate prices is expected to increase cost pressures on battery manufacturers, potentially leading to higher end-product prices for new energy vehicles [11]. - Midstream companies may enhance R&D investments to improve production efficiency and mitigate costs, while some smaller firms may face profit compression and exit the market [11]. - The overall market remains resilient, with consumer demand for new energy vehicles likely to continue growing despite price pressures [11]. Future Outlook - In the short term (Q1 2026), lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain high due to pre-export demand and post-holiday replenishment needs, with some forecasts suggesting prices could reach 180,000 to 200,000 yuan/ton [13]. - However, after the initial demand surge, prices may face downward pressure as inventory levels rise and production resumes [13]. - Long-term, the supply-demand gap is anticipated to widen due to slow new capacity releases, supporting a systemic increase in lithium prices [13].

来源：赛博AI实验室 2026年1月15日中国央行宣布下调结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点，引发市场对年内进一步宽松 的预期，同时全球降息博弈与资产价格波动加剧。 一、中国央行定向降息政策要点 结构性工具利率下调： 央行宣布自1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现利率0.25个百分点，一年期支农支小再贷款利率降至 1.25%，科技创新再贷款额度从8000亿元增至1.2万亿元，并单设1万亿元民营企业专项贷款额度。此举 重点支持科技创新、绿色低碳及中小微企业融资。 商业地产松绑： 同步下调商业用房购房贷款最低首付比例至30%，但未调整住宅房贷利率。 A股与商品分化： 股市：政策被解读为流动性利好，券商、科技板块获提振，部分观点预判明日高开。但分歧在于资金未 直接流向基建地产，大宗商品（如焦煤）可能仅获情绪支撑。 贵金属：受全球降息预期推动，黄金突破4630美元/盎司，白银创92美元历史新高，年内涨幅分别超6% 和25%。主导逻辑为地缘避险、光伏/AI工业需求激增及央行购金潮。 政策效果争议： 定向降息能否激活实体经济存疑，居民存款达165万亿元，但资金入市意愿不足。 未来政策空间明确： 央行副行长邹澜表示，当前金 ...

截至2026年1月15日 10:03，上证科创板新能源指数(000692)强势上涨，成分股先惠技术上涨10.19%，厦 钨新能上涨5.64%，骄成超声上涨5.31%，高测股份，联赢激光等个股跟涨。科创新能源ETF(588830)上 涨1.23%，最新价报1.64元。 科创新能源ETF紧密跟踪上证科创板新能源指数，上证科创板新能源指数从科创板市场中选取50只市值 较大的光伏、风电以及新能源车等领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映科创板市场代表性新能源 产业上市公司证券的整体表现。 消息面上。13日下午，节能与新能源汽车产业发展部际联席会议2026年度工作会议在京召开，会议强调 提升产业链、供应链自主可控能力，实施新一轮重点产业链高质量发展行动，加强攻关布局，加快突破 全固态电池、高级别自动驾驶等技术。此外，当前头部锂电厂商陆续开启大规模的设备招投标，部分头 部设备厂反馈已陆续收到数百GWH的头部厂商订单。据不完全统计，2026年锂电新增预计扩产已突破 1TWH，大部分锂电设备厂商在2026年整体的新增订单有望创历史新高。 有机构指出，固态方面，固态电池冲刺量产，国家标准逐步完善。国外方面，芬兰公司Donut ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,831 points, down 145 points or 0.61% [1] - The market turnover decreased to 82.799 billion HKD, with net inflows of 484 million HKD recorded in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [1] - The US stock market saw a decline for the second consecutive day, with the Nasdaq leading the drop, closing down 238 points or 1% [2] Key Companies Performance - Alibaba Health surged by 18.96% due to its strong AI medical innovation capabilities, recently winning a first prize in a smart healthcare innovation competition [1] - Haidilao rose by 9.15% as its founder returned as CEO after four years [1] - Nongfu Spring increased by 6.02%, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the company [1] Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes the continued net inflow of southbound funds into Hong Kong stocks, with a projected annual net inflow of 1,404.8 billion HKD by 2025 [3] - Key sectors to watch include AI applications, semiconductors, and industrial software, supported by the "self-reliance in technology" policy [3] - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from domestic consumption expansion, such as sports apparel and non-essential services [3] Economic Data - In the US, new home sales increased by 3.8% in September, lower than the previous 20.5% [2] - The report highlights the importance of the semiconductor industry, with expectations for significant growth in exports, particularly from South Korea, projected to reach 173.5 billion USD by 2025 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The resale value of Xiaomi cars, particularly the SU7 Ultra, has significantly declined, raising concerns among consumers and dealers about the brand's market stability and consumer confidence [1][3]. Group 1: Resale Value Decline - The Xiaomi SU7 Ultra has depreciated nearly 180,000 yuan within a year, with a current price of 368,000 yuan compared to its original price of 546,700 yuan [2]. - The SU7 Max version, which was recently purchased for 338,900 yuan, is now being sold for 273,000 yuan, reflecting a depreciation of 65,900 yuan within just one month [2]. - Overall, the average resale price of the SU7 has dropped by over 100,000 yuan from its original price, with some models experiencing declines exceeding 150,000 yuan [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Initially, the SU7 was highly sought after, with resale prices exceeding new car prices due to high demand and limited supply, but this trend reversed dramatically in the latter half of 2025 [3]. - Dealers are now adopting more cautious strategies, focusing on vehicle condition and market demand rather than speculative purchases, due to the volatility in prices [3]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Price Stability - The fluctuation in Xiaomi's car prices is attributed to industry norms where new energy vehicles often see initial price hikes due to limited supply, followed by a return to normalcy as production ramps up [3]. - Consumer confidence has been impacted by marketing discrepancies and safety incidents, including a notable accident involving the SU7 that raised concerns about its safety features [4]. Group 4: Current Market Situation - Despite previous volatility, the resale prices of Xiaomi cars have stabilized, with some dealers noting that prices are now more aligned with typical market conditions [5]. - The overall resale value of new energy vehicles has seen an uptick, with Xiaomi's SU7 achieving a one-year resale value of 80.1%, ranking second among major electric vehicles [7]. Group 5: Industry Trends - In 2025, the total transaction volume of used cars in China reached 20.108 million units, with new energy vehicles accounting for 1.6 million units, marking a 2.2 percentage point increase from the previous year [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that Hong Kong stocks are expected to outperform A-shares in 2025, but may show relative weakness in the second half of the year due to a stronger US dollar, slowing southbound capital inflows, and marginal deterioration in fundamentals [1] - In 2026, three factors are anticipated to drive a rebound in Hong Kong stocks: a return to a weaker US dollar encouraging international capital allocation to Hong Kong, appreciation of the RMB attracting Chinese capital back to Hong Kong, and a recovery in inflation alongside potential debt restructuring policies supporting the Chinese economy [1] - The technology sector in Hong Kong is projected to lag in 2025 but is expected to have high upside potential in 2026, with the possibility of a "Davis Triple Play," making it one of the most elastic sectors [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index has significantly outperformed the Hang Seng Technology Index, with a cumulative return of 256.46% from the end of 2014 to October 2025, exceeding the Hang Seng Technology Index's return of 96.94% by nearly 160% [2] - The index has consistently outperformed other similar indices, including the Hang Seng Internet Index, the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index, and the Hang Seng Healthcare Index [2] - The Hong Kong technology ETF (513020) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (931573), which covers core assets in sectors such as internet, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new energy vehicles, reflecting the diversified characteristics of the technology industry in Hong Kong [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that foreign institutions like Goldman Sachs and UBS are optimistic about the Chinese market, focusing on corporate profit growth as the main driver, replacing valuation recovery, with technology innovation and policy benefits seen as dual engines [1] Group 2 - Strong expectations for profit growth in 2026, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 20% increase in the MSCI China Index and a 12% increase in the CSI 300 Index, with a cumulative rise of 38% from 2026 to 2027, where corporate profits contribute 24% [2] - UBS forecasts a profit growth of over 14% for the MSCI China Index, with overall A-share profit growth rising from 6% in 2025 to 8%, driven by the technology sector, which accounts for 50% of the index [2] - Supporting factors include an increase in nominal GDP growth, a narrowing decline in PPI driving revenue growth, and policies optimizing supply-demand structures in industries like photovoltaics and chemicals [2] Group 3 - The MSCI China Index has a forward P/E ratio of only 12 times, significantly lower than the S&P 500 Index (22 times) and the Indian market (21 times), indicating a historical low [3] - Foreign ownership of A-shares is only 3.68%, much lower than the average of 40% in countries like Japan and South Korea, suggesting substantial room for increased allocation [3] - In the first ten months of 2025, foreign capital inflow into A-shares reached $50.6 billion, more than tripling year-on-year [3] Group 4 - Foreign investment is focusing on technology and structural opportunities, particularly in AI and its supply chain, with key areas including computing infrastructure and application scenarios in fintech and healthcare [4] Group 5 - Beneficiary sectors from policy dividends include new energy companies and high-end manufacturing leaders, with companies like CATL and Ganfeng Lithium receiving upgrades from Morgan Stanley [5] - Companies with high overseas revenue ratios in sectors like new energy vehicles and smart hardware are also targeted [5] - Structural opportunities in consumer services, particularly in dining and prepared foods, may see a rebound in the second half of the year due to PPI recovery [5] Group 6 - In the fourth quarter of 2025, northbound capital is expected to increase holdings in resource stocks while also adding to technology and financial sectors [6]