中新网武汉1月4日电 (梁婷 姜胜来)2026年湖北省科技创新大会4日在武汉启幕，会场之外，百米红毯 上"群星璀璨"，院士专家、科技企业负责人等齐亮相，分享科创故事。 1月4日， 湖北"科学之星"亮相红毯。湖北省科技厅 供图 记者注意到，今年红毯迎来多位新晋院士。中国科学院院士、华中科技大学教授尹周平，长期致力于电 子制造装备和数字制造技术领域的研究；中国科学院院士、中国地质大学教授唐辉明用科技守护山川安 澜，筑起防灾减灾的"智慧长城"；中国工程院院士、武汉大学教授刘泉声为中国深地资源开发与重大工 程建设筑牢科技根基。 红毯上，新生代创新力量"闪耀绽放"。华中农业大学高泽霞教授团队培育出无肌间刺武昌鱼和草鱼， 让"吃鱼自由"成为现实；兴发集团总工程师李书兵攻克有机硅废水处理难题，让"废物"变身"宝藏"；武 汉理工大学教授李政颖研发的传感系统，为重大工程装上"智慧神经"。 作为教育大省，湖北创新成果丰硕，近年来每次获评国家科学技术奖数量都居全国前5。2025年两院院 士增选中，湖北11位科学家当选，增选人数创下历史新高。目前，全省院士总数已突破90位。 近年来，湖北实施"尖刀"工程，一批院士专家"挂帅出征"，在 ...

华金期货品种报告 产业分类：新能源-双硅 分析师：马园园 执业资格证号： F3059193/Z0016074 华金期货有限公司 交易咨询 公楼 22 层 电话：400-995-5889 资决策的唯一参考因素，亦不 应认为本报告可以取代自己的 判断。 本报告版权仅为本公司所 明出处，且不得对本报告进行 任何有悖原意的引用、删节和 修改。 工业硅、多晶硅 2026 年策略报告 期货研究报告 双硅产能过剩，"政策"落地执行为关键变量 报告日期：2025.12.31 报告内容摘要： 工业硅： 2025 年工业硅价格经历了"下跌-反弹-震荡"行情，与其基本面 供需现况基本吻合。2026 年来看，供应端：新增产能投放&淘汰落后 产能叠加下，产能仍然过剩，供应较大程度取决于企业根据需求与利 润的动态调整，预计小增；需求端：多晶硅、有机硅在 2025 年"低 基数"基础上有所增加，而铝合金维持平稳增长。主流价格区间预计 在 7600 元/吨-9400 元/吨，价格重心或较当前有所下移。 经营范围：商品期货经纪、金 融期货经纪、资产管理、期货 地址：天津市和平区五大道街 南京路 183 号世纪都会商厦办 重点关注：成本端重点关 ...

Group 1 - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's petrochemical industry has entered a low growth phase after a concentrated release of basic product capacity, with a focus on policy support for sustainable development by 2026 [1] - The central economic work conference emphasized a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to promote domestic demand and build a large domestic market [1] - Multiple institutions, including Guosen Securities and Everbright Securities, predict that the petrochemical industry will see a cyclical turning point in 2026, with gradual recovery in industry prosperity [1] Group 2 - The domestic policy continues to guide structural optimization in the industry, including strict control of new refining capacity and promoting the elimination of outdated refining capacity [1] - On the international front, the Federal Reserve is expected to restart its interest rate cut cycle in 2025, while OPEC+ continues to adjust its production plans, reflecting a cautious attitude towards short-term energy demand [1] - The petrochemical sector is expected to benefit from a stable oil price environment in 2026, with core domestic petrochemical companies likely to see improved profit elasticity [2] Group 3 - China National Petroleum Corporation is expected to benefit from natural gas market reforms, leading to stable performance improvements [2] - Sinopec is focusing on domestic refining and chemical sectors, enhancing cost control and market share [2] - CNOOC is advancing its reserve and production increase while reducing costs and improving efficiency [2] Group 4 - The chemical industry is anticipated to experience profit restructuring opportunities in 2026, with specific sectors like fluorochemicals and potash fertilizers expected to see improved market conditions [2] - The implementation of the "one certificate, one product" policy in the pesticide sector is expected to reshape market competition [2] - Breakthroughs in catalyst technology and biobased chemical production are crucial for enhancing competitiveness in high-end materials [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall valuation of the industrial silicon industry is neutral, and there are structural opportunities in the low - valuation area [3][47] - The polysilicon industry is still policy - dominated, and its development is affected by policy implementation and dynamic adjustment [5] Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the industrial silicon industry featured "costs first decreasing then increasing, stable production growth, differentiated regional开工率, and prominent over - capacity". In 2026, the supply - demand balance will remain loose, with over - capacity as the core issue [1][3] - In 2025, the polysilicon industry was strongly affected by policies, showing characteristics of "ineffective pricing mechanism, production recovery in the second half of the year, and demand fluctuating with the photovoltaic industry chain". In 2026, it may show a situation of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: View Summary 1.1 Summary - **Industrial Silicon**: In 2025, costs first decreased due to lower raw material prices in the first half and then increased as coal prices rose in the second half. Production increased steadily, with开工率 showing regional and phased differences. Exports were weakly stable, with an estimated volume of 70 - 74 tons [1] - **Polysilicon**: In 2025, the pricing mechanism was ineffective. Production recovered in the second half, and demand was "high in the front and low in the back" affected by the "531 rush - to - install wave". After the anti - involution policy in June, profits rebounded, and the industry's production enthusiasm was boosted [2] 1.2 Future Outlook - **Industrial Silicon**: In 2026, the supply - demand balance will remain loose, with an expected supply growth rate of about 4.3% and a demand growth rate of about 5%. Attention should be paid to cost and price changes and the risk of short - term supply - demand mismatches [3] - **Polysilicon**: In 2026, it may show a "supply increase and demand decrease" situation, with a supply growth rate of about 3.7% and a demand growth rate of about - 10%. The profit transmission in the industrial chain is the key observation point, and policy implementation should be focused on [5] Chapter 2: Market Review 2.1 2025 Industrial Silicon Market Price Trend - **First Quarter**: The price declined due to weak supply - demand and pricing restructuring caused by the new delivery system. Supply increased, and demand was weak. Although there were short - term sentiment boosts, the overall supply - surplus situation remained [6] - **Second Quarter**: The price continued to decline due to high inventory, weak downstream demand, cost collapse expectations, and regional supply increases [7] - **Third and Fourth Quarters**: In the third quarter, the price rose due to the "anti - involution" sentiment, cost support, and downstream demand. In the fourth quarter, it was affected by the expected production cut in the polysilicon industry and profit - taking [7][8] 2.2 2025 Polysilicon Market Price Trend - **First Quarter**: The price fluctuated widely, driven by industry expectations and chain sentiment, with price increases at the beginning and drops after the Spring Festival [10] - **Second Quarter**: The price declined due to supply - demand deterioration, with a 14% drop in April. There were short - term rebounds but then continued to fall [11] - **Third Quarter**: The price rose significantly due to the "anti - involution" policy and market expectations [11] - **Fourth Quarter**: The price fluctuated in a range with a rising center, affected by policy expectations and supply - demand in the spot market [11] Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.1 Industrial Silicon - **Cost**: In 2025, costs decreased in the first half and increased in the second half, mainly due to raw material price changes [13] - **Supply**: Production increased steadily due to low start - stop costs and flexible production.开工率 was supported by cost collapse in the first half and profit recovery in the second half. Xinjiang had high开工率, and the Southwest had seasonal fluctuations [18][20] - **Import and Export**: Exports were affected by policies and overseas supply, and were expected to be weakly stable in 2026, with an estimated volume of 70 - 74 tons [23] - **New Capacity in 2026**: The industry was over - capacity, and the new planned capacity was about 45 tons, mainly integrated capacity [25] 3.2 Polysilicon - **Cost**: The cost was composed of electricity, silicon powder, and other auxiliary costs, and the market - based pricing mechanism was temporarily ineffective [27] - **Supply**: In 2025, production decreased in the first half and recovered in the second half after the anti - involution policy [29] - **Terminal Demand**: In 2025, demand was affected by the "531 rush - to - install wave", showing a "high - then - low" trend. In 2026, demand growth may be - 10% due to policy changes [31][5] - **Component Import and Export**: China's photovoltaic component exports were strong in 2025, with high volumes in the first half and a surge in the second half [33] - **Photovoltaic Power Generation**: In 2025, China's solar power generation reached 461.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 38.12%, providing key support for green - power supply [35] 3.3 Organosilicon - In 2025, the industry had high capacity, weak demand, and low开工率, with marginal improvement at the end of the year. In 2026, the supply - demand situation was uncertain [38] 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - In 2025, the domestic aluminum alloy industry had stable production growth, with a cumulative output of about 10.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 5.8%. In 2026, demand for industrial silicon was expected to continue to grow [40][41] Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 4.1 Valuation Feedback - **Industrial Silicon Profit**: Since May 2025, profits have increased due to lower hydropower costs and the "anti - involution" policy. The overall valuation is neutral, and attention should be paid to cost and price changes and enterprises with cost advantages or product - structure optimization capabilities [45][47] - **Polysilicon Profit**: Since June 2025, profits have rebounded rapidly, and the current profitability is good. Attention should be paid to profit transmission in the industrial chain [49][52] 4.2 Supply - Demand Outlook - **Industrial Silicon Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2026, the supply growth rate is expected to be about 4.3%, and the demand growth rate is about 5%. The over - capacity situation remains, and attention should be paid to production fluctuations caused by the hydropower season change [53] - **Polysilicon Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2026, the supply may increase by about 3.7%, and the demand may decrease by about 10%, with a slight supply - demand surplus [55]

Core Viewpoint - Silicon Bao Technology (300019) is actively engaging in the aerospace sector with its silicone materials, which exhibit excellent high and low-temperature resistance and aging performance, although current sales have minimal impact on the company's overall performance [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company has achieved limited sales of its products in the aerospace field, which currently does not significantly affect its overall performance [1] - Future business expansion will be driven by market and customer demand [1] Group 2: Industry Application - Silicone materials are widely used in aerospace due to their superior properties, including durability under extreme temperatures and resistance to aging [1]

Core Viewpoint - Silicon Treasure Technology (300019.SZ) is actively expanding its business in the aerospace sector, leveraging its superior silicone materials with excellent high and low-temperature resistance and aging performance [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company has made limited sales of its products in the aerospace field, which has not significantly impacted its overall performance [1] - Future business expansion will be driven by market and customer demand [1] Group 2: Industry Application - Silicone materials are widely used in aerospace and other industries due to their outstanding properties [1]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry in China is expected to end its downward cycle in 2026, presenting structural investment opportunities due to the recovery of downstream demand, the acceleration of domestic substitution, and the ongoing implementation of anti-involution policies [1][2]. Group 1: Traditional Chemical Sector Recovery - The core opportunity in the traditional chemical sector for 2026 arises from improved supply-demand dynamics driven by anti-involution policies, leading to a rational price recovery [2][18]. - The domestic production capacity of organic silicon has peaked, with major companies leading production cuts to stabilize prices, resulting in inventory levels dropping to a three-year low [2][4]. - PTA production capacity expansion is nearing completion, with a significant reduction in inventory levels, indicating a potential recovery in the polyester chain's profitability [4]. Group 2: Agricultural Chemicals and Price Recovery - The agricultural chemical sector is poised for growth as safety incidents have disrupted global pesticide supply chains, leading to a supply contraction that catalyzes price recovery [4][8]. - The price index for raw agricultural chemicals has shown signs of bottoming out, indicating a potential rebound in prices [4]. Group 3: Acceleration of Domestic Substitution in New Materials - The domestic substitution of chemical new materials is gaining momentum, driven by government support and technological advancements, becoming a key growth engine for the industry [9][10]. - The market for lubricating oil additives has seen a decrease in imports and an increase in exports, indicating a shift towards becoming a net exporter and enhancing domestic brands' market presence [10]. - The electronic chemicals sector is benefiting from the growth of AI and semiconductor industries, with domestic manufacturers achieving technological breakthroughs and entering major supply chains [14][17]. Group 4: Demand Recovery and Policy Support - Gradual recovery in downstream demand, particularly in the real estate and automotive sectors, is expected to support the chemical industry's growth [18][19]. - Government policies aimed at stabilizing growth and stimulating consumption are expected to bolster demand for chemical products, enhancing the industry's resilience [19]. - The implementation of anti-involution policies and regulations is expected to improve market competition and guide industry profitability back to reasonable levels [19]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Investment in the chemical industry should focus on three core areas: capitalizing on cyclical recovery opportunities in sectors like organic silicon and PTA, investing in high-growth areas such as bio-based materials and electronic chemicals, and targeting leading chemical companies with cost and scale advantages [20]. - The industry is at a critical juncture of cyclical reversal and structural upgrade, with both cyclical and growth opportunities present [20].

国内有机硅产能扩张周期已逐步落幕，2019-2024年，我国有机硅产能从151.5万吨增至344.0万吨， CAGR达17.8%，后续虽有新疆其亚、云南能投（002053）等新增产能规划在建，但具体落地层面的不 确定性或使实际投放有限，供给侧压力依然有望逐步缓解。行业产能集中度则持续提升，2025年CR4或 达54.7%，形成"一超多强"格局，为"反内卷"协同奠定基础。 2025年11月起，有机硅行业协同会议三连发，对减产规划和监督机制达成共识，带动有机硅价格从 11000元/吨低点迅速反弹至12月26日的13700元/吨。国投证券认为，本次协同减产若严格执行，不仅有 望加速对前期老旧产能的逐步汰换，同时有望使缺乏规模效应和原材料配套的边际小产能出于经济考量 主动退出，后续行业开工及产量水平或向更健康、更稳定的区间收敛，头部厂商或将受益于短期有机硅 价格提升和中长期供给格局结构性变革的双重提振。 国投证券发布研报称，2025年11月起，有机硅行业协同会议三连发，对减产规划和监督机制达成共识， 带动有机硅价格从11000元/吨低点迅速反弹至12月26日的13700元/吨。本次协同减产若严格执行，头部 厂商或将受 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is expected to end its downward cycle in 2026, presenting structural investment opportunities driven by anti-involution policies, accelerated domestic substitution, and gradually recovering downstream demand [4][19]. Group 1: Traditional Chemical Industry Opportunities - The core opportunity in the traditional chemical sector arises from improved supply-demand dynamics due to anti-involution policies, leading to a rational price recovery after years of capacity expansion [5][19]. - The domestic production capacity of organic silicon has peaked, with leading companies reducing output to stabilize prices, resulting in inventory levels dropping to a three-year low and prices showing signs of recovery [5][10]. - PTA production capacity expansion is nearing completion, with a significant reduction in inventory levels, indicating a potential recovery in the polyester chain's profitability [7][19]. Group 2: New Materials and Domestic Substitution - The domestic substitution of new chemical materials is accelerating, driven by government support and technological breakthroughs, becoming a core growth engine for the industry [11][12]. - The market for bio-based materials is expanding, supported by policies promoting green and low-carbon transitions, with domestic companies advancing in technology and production [12]. - The lubricating oil additive sector has seen a decrease in imports to 203,000 tons in 2023, while exports rose to 208,000 tons, indicating a shift towards becoming a net exporter [12]. Group 3: Downstream Demand Recovery - Gradual recovery in downstream demand is providing solid support for the chemical industry, with the real estate market expected to rebound, boosting demand for construction materials and coatings [19]. - The automotive sector is experiencing stable growth, with a 10.99% year-on-year increase in production in October 2025, further driving the demand for chemical materials [19]. - Policies aimed at stabilizing growth, including those targeting real estate and consumer spending, are expected to enhance downstream demand, while stricter energy and carbon emission regulations are leading to increased industry concentration [19][20]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment in the chemical industry in 2026 should focus on three core areas: capturing cyclical recovery opportunities from anti-involution, investing in high-growth sectors like bio-based materials and electronic chemicals, and identifying leading companies with cost and scale advantages [21][22]. - The industry is at a critical juncture of cyclical reversal and structural upgrade, with both cyclical and growth opportunities present [22].

FESTING T 2025 年 12 月 28 日 26Q1 制冷剂长协继续上扬， 硅或再迎涨价,关注商业部 张景气 -《化工周报 25/12/22-25/12/26》 相关研究 《氨纶或迎格局重塑，欧盟对华轮胎反倾 销暂不采取措施，不改企业出海优势- 《化工周报 25/12/15-25/12/19》》 2025/12/21 证券分析师 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowg@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 周超 A0230525090001 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 李绍程 A0230525070002 lisc@swsresearch.com 李彦宏 A0230125030002 liyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 马昕 ...