Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper market showed a pattern of first declining and then rising in the morning session, followed by narrow - range fluctuations around the 100,000 mark, with a decreasing position volume. The sharp decline of Shanghai silver in the morning led to a weakening of the non - ferrous metal market, but as silver rebounded, copper also rebounded. In the industrial aspect, when the copper price weakened in the morning, the downstream's willingness to purchase increased, and the spot price changed from a discount to a premium. Short - term focus should be on the support at the 100,000 mark [6]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum market hit the bottom and rebounded in the morning, maintaining a volatile trend throughout the day, with a continuous decrease in position volume. Similar to copper, the early decline of Shanghai silver affected the non - ferrous metal market, and it rebounded as silver recovered. In the industrial aspect, downstream enterprises made rigid - demand restocking, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to rise on Thursday. Technically, the aluminum price rebounded after approaching the low on Monday. Continuous attention should be paid to the support at that position [7]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price plunged in the morning and rebounded during the day, with a continuous decrease in position volume. The early decline of Shanghai silver had a significant impact on the non - ferrous metal market, and nickel also rebounded as silver recovered. In the industrial aspect, there is currently no strong short - term driving force, but the long - term expectation of supply contraction in Indonesia has reversed the supply - demand outlook. Technically, the nickel price rebounded after approaching the low on Monday. Continuous attention should be paid to the support at that position [8]. 3. Content Summaries by Sections Industry Dynamics - Copper - This week, cable enterprises mainly made batch - by - batch rigid - demand purchases. The raw material inventory increased by 1.83% month - on - month, while the finished product inventory decreased by 2.05% month - on - month as orders increased. - The weekly starting rate of SMM copper cable enterprises was 60.15%, an increase of 0.69 percentage points month - on - month. At the beginning of the week, when the copper price hit the limit down, the overall pick - up volume and new orders in the industry increased, supporting stable production. The implementation of previously won State Grid orders and the growth of equipment cable orders were the main sources of orders. - Looking ahead to the next week, the decline in the copper price effectively stimulated downstream restocking. With the concentrated release of restocking demand on Friday, the spot price changed from a discount to a premium. The supply may increase in the short term due to the arrival of some locked - in price goods. However, as downstream enterprises gradually enter the holiday period, most leading enterprises have completed pre - holiday restocking, and the actual procurement demand is expected to gradually weaken [10]. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report presents multiple charts including copper spot premium/discount, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory, and LME copper注销仓单比例, etc. These charts cover data from 2021 to 2026, providing a long - term perspective on the copper market [11][13][18]. - **Aluminum**: Charts such as aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic and overseas social inventories, and aluminum rod inventory are provided. The data in the charts mainly cover the period from 2021 to 2026, showing the historical trends of the aluminum market [23][25][33]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts on nickel basis, LME and SHFE inventories, and nickel ore port inventory. The data in these charts span from 2021 to 2026, helping to analyze the nickel market trends [35][37][43].

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Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting forecasts the market development status and competitive landscape of the non-ferrous metals industry in China from 2026 to 2032 [1] Price Trends - As of mid-January 2026, the market price for zinc ingots (0) is projected to be 24,571.4 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.57% and a month-on-month increase of 1.67% [1] - The highest recorded price for zinc ingots in the same period over the past five years was in mid-January 2022, reaching 24,850 yuan per ton [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - Copper concentrate is expected to be included in the strategic reserve scope, enhancing the status of key metals [8] - The global average copper ore grade is declining, leading to a sustained tight supply trend, which may further elevate copper's status as a critical metal [8] - The "anti-involution" policy in copper smelting remains unchanged, with expectations for copper prices and smelting fees to rise in the medium term [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The copper resource reserve system is being improved, with plans to expand the national copper strategic reserve and explore commercial reserve mechanisms. The import dependency of domestic copper concentrate has reached 75%, indicating a need for enhanced supply chain security [8] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Major copper mining companies have reported a decline in copper production due to falling ore grades. The insufficient capital expenditure by mining companies and the decreasing rate of significant copper resource discoveries suggest that supply will not increase significantly in the medium term. Meanwhile, demand from traditional sectors and emerging fields like renewable energy is expected to grow [8] Policy and Market Trends - The domestic copper smelting capacity is being strictly controlled, with over 2 million tons of copper smelting projects halted. The "anti-involution" policy is expected to gradually show effects in the next two to three years, leading to a potential upward correction in smelting fees [8] Investment Recommendations - For copper mining, it is recommended to focus on Zijin Mining (601899, Buy) due to its large resource reserves and expected production increases. Other notable companies include Luoyang Molybdenum (603993, Not Rated) and Jincheng Mining (603979, Not Rated) [8] - For copper smelting, attention is drawn to Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630, Buy), which is expected to benefit from increased copper concentrate self-sufficiency and improved spot smelting fee expectations. Jiangxi Copper (600362, Not Rated) is also mentioned [8]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Buy (maintained) [8] Core Insights - The central price of copper is determined by macroeconomic factors (β) and real demand (α), where the price "central" is not influenced by short-term supply and demand but rather by the macro environment and sustainable real demand [2] - Macroeconomic factors (β) include real interest rates, dollar liquidity, global credit expansion, and risk appetite, which act as amplifiers for all commodities, influencing market valuations [3] - Real demand (α) emphasizes long-term trends and sustainability, focusing on indicators such as grid investment, energy transition, and manufacturing capital expenditure, which are not influenced by short-term financial conditions [4] - The supply side of copper is characterized by long cycles and constraints, making it a slow variable that does not significantly affect the price central [5] Market Dynamics - Recent declines in copper prices are driven by macroeconomic factors (β) rather than real demand (α), indicating a market-wide revaluation rather than a fundamental deterioration in any specific sector [6] - The current market phase is transitioning from a period of β shocks to a phase where the impact of these shocks is expected to diminish, leading to a reassessment of real demand [11] Price Outlook - Short-term trading logic is influenced by expectations of Federal Reserve leadership changes and tightening liquidity, suggesting caution in declaring a market bottom [12] - The medium-term outlook for copper prices will depend on whether real demand (α) remains intact, with key indicators being global grid investment and capital expenditure in energy and manufacturing [12] Investment Recommendations - Current strategy should focus on structural defense under β pressure while waiting for a revaluation of α, with a preference for aluminum over copper in the short term [13][15] - For copper, patience is advised, with a focus on high-certainty domestic companies over more volatile overseas firms, and a preference for mining companies over processing firms [15]

有色金属行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 流动性预期回摆，错杀品修复可期 ——有色及贵金属周报 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 核心观点：流动性预期回摆，错杀品修复可期。近日特朗普提名沃什为下一任美联储主 席，短期贵金属乐观预期的回摆导致金属价格大幅波动，建议关注错杀品种的修复机 会。 投资标的： 相关标的：山东黄金(600547，未评级)、山金国际(000975，未评级)、中金黄金 (600489，未评级)、赤峰黄金(600988，买入)、紫金矿业(601899，买入)、洛阳钼业 (603993，未评级)、中国铝业(601600，未评级)、西部矿业(601168，未评级)、金诚 信(603979，未评级)。 风险提示 下游需求弱于预期、供给端大量释放、美联储降息进程不及预期等。 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色金属行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 02 日 看好维持 | 于嘉懿 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110005 | | --- | --- | | | yujiayi1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 兰洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing significant price fluctuations, with gold, silver, copper, aluminum, and rare earths reaching new highs in 2025, but recent market volatility has raised questions about the sustainability of this trend [2][18]. Group 1: Price Fluctuations and Market Dynamics - The recent sharp decline in metal prices has left the market confused about whether this is a peak cycle or a short-term adjustment [5][20]. - The non-ferrous metals sector saw over a 90% increase in 2025, with gold prices rising over 23% in January 2026 and silver over 60% for the year [22][6]. - Profit-taking by investors after substantial gains has triggered corrections in some metal prices [23]. Group 2: Macro and Supply-Demand Factors - Global macroeconomic changes, such as the unexpected rise in the U.S. CPI, have led to a reduction in the expected number of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which could strengthen the dollar and suppress metal prices [24]. - The supply-demand imbalance is a core driver of price strength in basic and new energy metals, with traditional metals like copper and aluminum facing supply constraints and increasing demand from energy transitions [27]. - The geopolitical climate and economic uncertainties are elevating market risk aversion, making gold a preferred safe-haven asset [28]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Market Outlook - The underlying logic for investing in non-ferrous metals remains intact, with expectations of continued demand from emerging industries and a loose monetary environment [11][28]. - Investors are advised to be cautious of high leverage in the futures market and to monitor ETF premium risks, especially when market conditions change [29][30]. - The recent downturn in non-ferrous metals does not indicate a fundamental reversal, suggesting a potential shift into a phase of structural differentiation within the sector [32].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment has fluctuated significantly, amplifying volatility in the commodity market. Short-term carbonate lithium prices have surged and then retreated, with support from inventory adjustments ahead of the holiday. There remains potential for a rebound before the holiday. In the medium term, lithium salt supply is constrained, and mining costs are rising, maintaining the upward price logic for lithium. The cobalt sector is supported by raw material costs, showing strong price resilience with limited downside [4][12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The lithium and cobalt core targets have clear investment value, suggesting active positioning. The lithium sector has seen increased price volatility, with a divergence in the rhythm between mining and salt ends. Futures contracts have dropped significantly, with the Wuxi 2605 contract down 16.65% to 149,200 CNY/ton, and the Guangxi 2605 contract down 18.36% to 148,200 CNY/ton. Lithium concentrate prices have decreased to 2,070 USD/ton, down 144 USD from the previous week. The carbonate lithium price has significantly corrected due to regulatory cooling and market fluctuations, with downstream demand stabilizing [12][13]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - Various companies have released performance signals. For instance, Pilbara is evaluating the potential for increased production capacity at its Ngungaju plant, while CATL plans to build a lithium battery manufacturing base in Yunnan. Yongshan Lithium Industry and other companies have announced significant changes in their profit forecasts, reflecting the impact of lithium price fluctuations and operational adjustments [15][16][17]. 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials - In December, domestic carbonate lithium production increased by 4% month-on-month, while hydroxide lithium production rose by 2%. The inventory showed structural adjustments, with a general increase in prices for lithium and cobalt materials. The average price for battery-grade carbonate lithium rose by 7.15% to a range of 161,000-182,000 CNY/ton, and battery-grade hydroxide lithium increased by 8.12% to 158,000-169,000 CNY/ton [18][19][67].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Upstream Cycle Products**: Benefiting from loose monetary conditions and a bottoming capacity cycle, supply-demand tight balance is driving price increases in sectors like chemicals, black chain, and real estate chain, presenting investment opportunities. Short-term market remains strong with long-term logic supporting this trend, but structural rotation and cost-effectiveness need to be monitored [1][2] Chemical Industry - **Current Situation**: The chemical industry is experiencing a hot market, with public fund holdings in large chemical sectors still underweight. Policies limiting new capacity and negative growth in capital expenditure are restricting supply, leading to an upward trend in industry prosperity [4] - **Investment Recommendations**: 1. **Oil and Petrochemicals**: Focus on companies with good resource endowments benefiting from high oil prices and potential value assessments [4] 2. **Basic Chemicals**: After a long bottoming process, current price differentials and valuations have safety margins. Key assets benefiting from unexpected demand and marginal changes in dual carbon policies should be monitored [4] 3. **Cyclical Leaders**: Attention should be given to tire companies with overseas expansion potential [4] Coal Sector - **Current Situation**: The coal sector has seen supply contraction and increased overseas demand, with inventory levels decreasing, indicating potential price increases. Many companies are undervalued from a price-to-book (PB) perspective, especially those with high spot market ratios [5][7] - **Investment Logic**: Companies with high spot ratios are expected to benefit significantly from rising coal prices. Recommended companies include Lu'an Huanneng, Jinkong Coal, and Shanmei International [6] Precious Metals - **Market Dynamics**: In the context of global turmoil, physical assets like gold are rising, with ongoing central bank purchases. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining International and Shandong Gold [10] - **Industrial Metals**: Favorable outlook for aluminum and copper, with specific recommendations for China Aluminum and Zijin Mining [10][11] Logistics and Delivery - **SF Holding**: The company shows potential for absolute returns and valuation recovery, with a projected absolute return rate of 3.8% for 2025 and 2026. The company is at a ten-year low in valuation, with significant room for EPS upgrades and PE recovery [12] - **Third-party Delivery**: SF's leading position in the third-party delivery sector is expected to enhance performance through partnerships with major internet companies [12] Insurance Sector - **2026 Outlook**: The insurance sector is expected to perform strongly due to resonance in both asset and liability sides. The demand for dividend insurance is increasing, and the long-term interest rates are stabilizing, enhancing profit elasticity for insurance companies [23][24] Construction Materials - **Investment Opportunities**: Traditional undervalued construction materials like renovation materials, glass, and cement still hold investment value. Recommended companies include Beixin Building Materials and China Liansu [25] Real Estate Sector - **Recent Trends**: The real estate sector has rebounded due to bullish market sentiment and policy expectations. Anticipated easing measures in core cities may lead to a short-term market recovery [26][27] Engineering Machinery - **2026 Prospects**: The engineering machinery sector is expected to see synchronized domestic and international demand growth. Key recommendations include SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion [29][30] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market dynamics and investment opportunities across various sectors.

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a broad increase, but there was a significant outflow of funds from stock ETFs, totaling over 717 billion yuan on January 23, indicating a trend of profit-taking among investors [2][7][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 23, the A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with total trading volume exceeding 30 trillion yuan [2]. - The total scale of stock ETFs in the market reached 4.58 trillion yuan as of January 23, 2026 [4]. - The trading volume of stock ETFs on that day was 368.61 billion yuan, an increase of over 68 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [4]. Group 2: Fund Flows - Stock ETFs experienced a cumulative net outflow of nearly 450 billion yuan over the past five trading days, with 26 ETFs seeing outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan on January 23 [8][10]. - The largest net outflows were observed in broad-based ETFs, with four ETFs experiencing single-day outflows exceeding 100 billion yuan, and one ETF exceeding 200 billion yuan [8][10]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The solar and satellite sectors led the gains among stock ETFs, with four solar ETFs and six satellite ETFs among the top ten performers [5]. - On January 23, 21 stock ETFs had an increase of over 8%, with the top performers being the Sci-Tech Innovation Board New Energy ETF and various satellite ETFs, each rising by 10% [5][6]. Group 4: Fund Inflows - Despite the overall outflow, 58 stock ETFs saw inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with the CSI 500 ETF, Sci-Tech Chip ETF, and Chemical ETF leading the inflows [8][9]. - Notable inflows were recorded for ETFs managed by leading fund companies, such as E Fund and Huaxia Fund, indicating continued interest in specific sectors [12].