Group 1 - The A-share non-ferrous metal sector has performed remarkably well this year, with the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metal Index showing an increase of nearly 77% as of December 11, and several stocks within the sector doubling in price [1] - The strong rise in the sector is driven by multiple sources of capital, including public funds, social security funds, and foreign investments [1] - The core factor behind the price increase in non-ferrous metals is the strong constraints on supply, particularly in copper and electrolytic aluminum, where production has been limited and often disrupted [1] Group 2 - The fundamental outlook for the non-ferrous metal sector is relatively stable, with major commodities remaining within a reasonable valuation range despite short-term volatility [2] - The upward trend driven by the production cycle is expected to continue in the medium to long term until a supply inflection point is reached [2] - The limited new production capacity and increasing demand for electricity, particularly for copper, suggest that the supply-demand gap may continue to widen [1]

Core Viewpoint - The SMEI index increased to 3661.59 points this week, reflecting a rise of 82.29 points or 2.30% compared to last week [1]. Price Index Summary - **Copper**: The index reported at 93876.4 points, up by 2413.4 points, a rise of 2.64% from last week [4]. - **Aluminum**: The index reported at 22037.44 points, down by 30 points, a decrease of 0.14% from last week [4]. - **Lead**: The index reported at 17032.5 points, down by 172.5 points, a decline of 1.00% from last week [4]. - **Zinc**: The index reported at 23714.6 points, up by 550 points, an increase of 2.37% from last week [4]. - **Tin**: The index reported at 331250 points, up by 15500 points, a rise of 4.91% from last week [4]. - **Nickel**: The index reported at 117842 points, down by 1573 points, a decrease of 1.32% from last week [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rise in non-ferrous metal stocks, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve due to deteriorating employment data in the U.S. [1] - Zijin Mining (601899) saw an increase of 3.51%, trading at HKD 34.24, while China Hongqiao (01378) rose by 3.32% to HKD 32.4 [1] - Other notable increases include Lingbao Gold (03330) up 3.23% to HKD 18.56, Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) up 2.8% to HKD 18.36, and Jiangxi Copper (600362) up 2.57% to HKD 34.28 [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department reported an increase of 44,000 in initial jobless claims, reaching 236,000, marking the largest rise since March 2020 [1] - Major financial institutions like JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup predict further interest rate cuts in January 2024 [1] - According to Guotai Junan Securities, global economic growth is expected to remain weak, with geopolitical tensions increasing supply chain risks, suggesting a potential super cycle for non-ferrous metals [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's interest - rate cut and expansionary signals, along with China's relatively loose policy signals, create a positive sentiment in the有色金属 market. Different metals have different price trends based on their own supply and demand fundamentals [5][8]. - For copper, short - term prices are expected to continue rising, supported by supply tightening expectations [5]. - For aluminum, prices are expected to rebound due to factors such as inventory reduction and supply disruptions [8]. - For lead, the price shows a relatively strong trend in the short - term as the social inventory of lead ingots is at a low level [10]. - For zinc, in the short - term, the price is expected to follow copper and aluminum to strengthen, but the medium - term supply surplus cycle remains unchanged [12]. - For tin, after the release of macro risks, the price may stabilize and strengthen [15]. - For nickel, the short - term price may turn to a volatile trend [17]. - For lithium carbonate, there may be no clear trend in the short - term, and price fluctuations are likely to be large [20]. - For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term as the price is approaching the cost line and the supply reduction expectation is increasing [23]. - For stainless steel, the market is waiting for effective supply - side control and the release of downstream demand to break the current deadlock [26]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the price is likely to follow the aluminum price in the short - term [29]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper Market Information - The Fed's interest - rate cut and bond - buying plan led to a 0.78% increase in the LME 3M copper contract to $11,559 per ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 91,770 yuan per ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 700 tons to 164,975 tons, and the domestic daily warehouse receipt decreased by 0.1 tons to 29,000 tons [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - Short - term prices are expected to continue rising, with the SHFE copper main contract operating in the range of 91,200 - 93,300 yuan per ton and the LME 3M copper in the range of $11,450 - $11,800 per ton [5]. Aluminum Market Information - The Fed's actions led to a 0.6% increase in LME aluminum to $2,862 per ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,960 yuan per ton. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased slightly, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 521,000 tons [7]. Strategy Viewpoint - Prices are expected to rebound, with the SHFE aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,800 - 22,200 yuan per ton and the LME 3M aluminum in the range of $2,830 - $2,900 per ton [8]. Lead Market Information - The SHFE lead index fell 0.26% to 17,121 yuan per ton, and the LME 3S lead fell $4.5 to $1,987.5 per ton. The domestic lead ingot social inventory decreased to 20,400 tons [9]. Strategy Viewpoint - The short - term price shows a relatively strong trend due to low social inventory of lead ingots [10]. Zinc Market Information - The SHFE zinc index rose 0.08% to 23,095 yuan per ton, and the LME 3S zinc rose $3 to $3,103.5 per ton. The zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 430 tons to 136,000 tons [11]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the short - term, the price is expected to strengthen following copper and aluminum, but the medium - term supply surplus cycle remains [12]. Tin Market Information - On December 10, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract rose 3.30% to 322,630 yuan per ton. The supply shortage has been slightly alleviated, but there are still concerns. The demand in traditional fields is weak, while emerging fields provide long - term support [14]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the release of macro risks, the price may stabilize and strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 300,000 - 330,000 yuan per ton and the overseas LME tin in the range of $39,000 - $42,000 per ton [15]. Nickel Market Information - The SHFE nickel main contract fell 0.64% to 116,150 yuan per ton. The nickel ore price remained stable, and the nickel iron price rebounded [16]. Strategy Viewpoint - The short - term price may turn to a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see, with the SHFE nickel price operating in the range of 113,000 - 118,000 yuan per ton and the LME 3M nickel in the range of $13,500 - $15,500 per ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index rose 0.99% to 91,969 yuan. The LC2605 contract closed at 95,980 yuan, up 3.43% [19]. Strategy Viewpoint - There may be no clear trend in the short - term, and price fluctuations are likely to be large. It is recommended to wait and see, with the LC2605 contract operating in the range of 93,200 - 98,600 yuan per ton [20]. Alumina Market Information - On December 10, 2025, the alumina index fell 2.16% to 2,541 yuan per ton. The Shandong spot price fell to 2,710 yuan per ton, and the overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price fell to $311 per ton [22]. Strategy Viewpoint - It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term as the price is approaching the cost line and the supply reduction expectation is increasing. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to operate in the range of 2,400 - 2,700 yuan per ton [23]. Stainless Steel Market Information - The stainless steel main contract rose 0.44% to 12,555 yuan per ton. The social inventory decreased to 1,080,300 tons, with a 0.54% month - on - month decrease [25]. Strategy Viewpoint - The market is waiting for effective supply - side control and the release of downstream demand to break the current deadlock [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The main AD2602 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose 0.58% to 20,930 yuan per ton. The domestic three - place inventory decreased to 49,000 tons [28]. Strategy Viewpoint - The price is likely to follow the aluminum price in the short - term [29].

11月份，居民消费持续恢复，居民消费价格指数(CPI)环比略降0.1%，同比上涨0.7%，扣除食品和能源 价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。受国内部分行业供需结构优化、国际大宗商品价格传导等因素影响，工 业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)环比上涨0.1%，同比下降2.2%。 CPI同比涨幅扩大 服务价格下降0.4%，影响CPI环比下降约0.16个百分点。其中，节后出行需求季节性回落，宾馆住宿、 飞机票、旅行社收费和交通工具租赁费价格分别下降10.4%、10.2%、6.2%和3.6%，合计影响CPI环比下 降约0.13个百分点；房屋租赁进入淡季，房租价格下降0.2%。 核心CPI上涨1.2% CPI同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点，为2024年3月份以来最高，同比涨幅扩大主要是食品 价格由降转涨拉动。 食品价格由上月下降2.9%转为上涨0.2%，对CPI同比的影响由上月下拉0.54个百分点转为上拉0.04个百 分点。食品中，鲜菜价格由上月下降7.3%转为上涨14.5%，为连续下降9个月后首次转涨，对CPI同比的 上拉影响比上月增加约0.49个百分点；鲜果价格由上月下降2.0%转为上涨0.7%；牛肉和羊 ...

国家统计局周三公布数据显示，11月工业品出厂价格（PPI）同比下降2.2%，降幅较上月扩大0.1个百分点，结束连续三个月降幅收窄进程；环比上涨0.1%， 连续两个月上涨。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟在当天发布的新闻稿中解读称，PPI同比降幅有所扩大主要是受上年同期对比基数走高影响。我国各项宏观政策不断显 效，价格呈现积极变化。 统计局提到，随着综合整治"内卷式"竞争成效显现，相关行业价格同比降幅收窄。重点行业产能治理持续推进，市场竞争秩序不断优化，煤炭开采和洗选 业、光伏设备及元器件制造、锂离子电池制造价格同比降幅比上月分别收窄3.8个、2.0个和0.7个百分点，均已连续多个月收窄。 记者 辛圆 往后看，西南证券在最近发布的研究报告中指出，随着10月底发布的"十五五"规划推进落地，一系列扩内需与"反内卷"政策的效能将持续释放，有望推动重 点行业价格企稳回升。在宏观政策支持与供需结构改善的背景下，后续价格水平预计将延续向好态势，预计PPI同比降幅将呈现收窄态势。 不过，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，"反内卷"对年底前基础原材料和工业品价格的带动作用有待进一步观察，需求不足会继续制约工业品价格上行空 间， ...

五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属日报 2025-12-10 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 美联储议息会议前美元指数反弹，国内权益市场走弱，铜价回调，昨日伦铜 3M 合约收跌 1.76%至 11470 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 91020 元/吨。LME 铜库存增加 1125 至 165675 吨，注销仓单比例 下滑，Cash/3M 升贴水下滑。国内日度仓单减少至 3.0 万吨，上海地区现货升水期货下滑至 95 元/ 吨，持货商出货意愿强，基差报价继续下调。广东地区库存增加，现货升水期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to remain high in the short - term, supported by the expected reduction in production due to tight mining supply and the tightening of spot supply. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with domestic aluminum ingot inventory declining, high US spot aluminum premiums, and continued reduction in LME aluminum ingot inventory. Lead prices are expected to run strongly in the short - term due to low domestic delivery product inventory. Zinc prices are expected to follow copper and aluminum to run strongly in the short - term, but the medium - term supply surplus cycle remains unchanged. Tin prices are likely to rise in the short - term due to supply disruptions. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Lithium carbonate prices are likely to have large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see. Alumina prices are recommended to be observed in the short - term. Stainless steel prices depend on the actual implementation of steel mill production cuts. Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to follow aluminum prices [4][6][8][10][12][15][18][21][24][27] Summary by Metal Copper Market Information - The domestic equity market was strong, the US dollar index was stable, and the copper price rose and then fell. LME copper 3M contract rose slightly by 0.09% to $11,675/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 92,400 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 2000 to 164,550 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and bonded area inventory both increased [3] Strategy Viewpoint - The Fed's interest - rate meeting is approaching, and it is likely to continue the rate - cut rhythm. The Chinese Politburo meeting released a relatively loose policy signal. The copper price is expected to remain high in the short - term, and the reference operating range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 91,500 - 93,500 yuan/ton; the reference operating range for LME copper 3M is $11,500 - 11,850/ton [4] Aluminum Market Information - The domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased slightly, and the aluminum price rose and then fell. LME aluminum closed down 0.48% to $2,886/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 22,120 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 0.3 to 725,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.1 to 68,000 tons [5] Strategy Viewpoint - The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is decreasing, the US spot aluminum premium is high, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory continues to decrease. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The reference operating range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21,900 - 22,400 yuan/ton; the reference operating range for LME aluminum 3M is $2,850 - 2,910/ton [6] Lead Market Information - The Shanghai lead index rose 0.23% to 17,338 yuan/ton on Monday. LME lead 3S fell $6 to $2,011.5/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 20,400 tons [7] Strategy Viewpoint - The port inventory of lead ore decreased marginally, and the factory inventory increased normally. The production rates of primary lead and recycled lead are rising, and the production rate of downstream battery enterprises is also rising. The lead price is expected to run strongly in the short - term [8] Zinc Market Information - The Shanghai zinc index fell 0.05% to 23,300 yuan/ton on Monday. LME zinc 3S rose $8 to $3,124.5/ton. The zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 4,300 tons to 136,000 tons [9] Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of zinc ore decreased marginally, and the zinc concentrate TC declined again. In the medium - term, the supply surplus cycle of the zinc industry remains unchanged, and the upside space is limited. In the short - term, the zinc price is expected to follow copper and aluminum to run strongly [10] Tin Market Information - On December 8, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 319,200 yuan/ton, up 0.54% from the previous day. The supply of tin concentrate imports increased significantly in October, but the conflict in the DRC and the possible suspension of mining in Nigeria may affect the supply [11] Strategy Viewpoint - Although the current demand in the tin market is weak, the supply disruption is the decisive factor for the short - term price. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 340,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is $40,000 - 44,000/ton [12] Nickel Market Information - The nickel price fluctuated narrowly on Monday. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 1,178,030 yuan/ton, up 0.20% from the previous day. The spot premiums of various brands were stable [14] Strategy Viewpoint - The nickel surplus pressure is still large, but the nickel price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the Shanghai nickel price is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for the LME nickel 3M contract is $13,500 - 15,500/ton [15] Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 90,969 yuan, up 0.33%. The LC2605 contract closed at 94,840 yuan, up 2.91% [17] Strategy Viewpoint - Due to the mining dispute in Nigeria and the repair of the risk appetite in the equity market, the lithium carbonate price rose strongly. The trend may not last, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the LC2605 contract is 92,500 - 97,500 yuan/ton [18] Alumina Market Information - On December 8, 2025, the alumina index rose 1.11% to 2,636 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price fell 15 yuan/ton to 2,725 yuan/ton [20] Strategy Viewpoint - After the rainy season, the ore shipment will gradually resume, and the ore price is expected to decline. The alumina smelting capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,450 - 2,700 yuan/ton [21] Stainless Steel Market Information - The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,510 yuan/ton on Monday, up 0.08%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets increased. The social inventory decreased to 1.0803 million tons [23] Strategy Viewpoint - Although the sales improved in November, the high inventory pressure is still significant. The focus should be on the actual implementation of steel mill production cuts [24] Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The cast aluminum alloy price fell and then rebounded. The main AD2602 contract closed down 0.26% to 21,135 yuan/ton. The domestic three - place inventory decreased by 30 tons to 49,200 tons [26] Strategy Viewpoint - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively firm, and the supply is affected by policies. The price is expected to follow the aluminum price to fluctuate [27]

| 指标 | 台金投资 | 有色金属行业均值 | 行业排名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 总市值 | 34.85亿元 | 337.16亿元 | 67 76 | | 净资产 | 2.09亿元 | 135.94亿元 | 76 76 | | 净利润 | 725.81万元 | 12.73亿元 | 66 76 | | 市盈率(动) | 360.14 | 33.14 | 66 76 | | 市净率 | 17.74 | 4.08 | 75 76 | | 毛利率 | 14.5% | 15.54% | 28 76 | | 净利率 | 3.87% | 6.97% | 41 76 | | ROE | 3.77% | 6.23% | 55 76 | | | | | | 日期 收盘价 涨跌幅 主力净流入 主力净占比 游资净点比 游资净占比 散户净占比 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-12-08 | 9.05 3.43% | | -312.20万 | -0.54% | 700.36万 | 1.2 ...

Core Points - The company has triggered the conditional redemption of its convertible bonds "中金转债" due to the stock price meeting specific criteria [6][9][23] - The redemption price is set at 100.70 yuan per bond, which includes accrued interest [7][28] - The total amount of bonds redeemed is 41,971, with a total redemption payment of approximately 4.23 million yuan [11][28] Group 1: Bond Issuance and Listing - The company issued 38 million convertible bonds with a total value of 380 million yuan, with a maturity of 6 years and a tiered interest rate structure [2][18] - The bonds were listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on August 14, 2020 [3][19] Group 2: Conversion Price Adjustments - The initial conversion price was set at 4.71 yuan per share, which has been adjusted multiple times, with the latest adjustment bringing it to 4.29 yuan [4][20][21] Group 3: Redemption Terms and Conditions - The company has the right to redeem the bonds if the stock price exceeds 130% of the conversion price for at least 15 trading days or if the remaining balance of unconverted bonds is below 30 million yuan [5][23] - The redemption was approved by the board on October 30, 2025, following the triggering of the redemption conditions [6][9][23] Group 4: Redemption Implementation - The last trading day for the bonds was November 20, 2025, and the final conversion day was November 25, 2025, with the redemption date set for November 26, 2025 [9][27] - The bonds will be delisted from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on December 4, 2025, after the completion of the redemption [12][30] Group 5: Impact of Redemption - The total face value of the redeemed bonds is 4,197,100 yuan, which represents 0.1105% of the total issuance and is not expected to significantly impact the company's financial status [12][28] - The total number of shares increased by 871,487,131 due to the conversion of the bonds, which may dilute earnings per share in the short term [12][14]