Report Summary - **Report Title**: Zheng Cotton Turns to Narrow - Range Fluctuation, Funds Flow Out Before the Festival - Guoxin Futures Cotton Weekly Report - **Report Date**: February 6, 2026 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Domestically, Zheng Cotton showed significantly reduced volatility and narrow - range fluctuations this week. With new cotton processing nearing completion, supply pressure is high. However, yarn prices remained stable or increased while cotton prices fell, and the downstream industry faced limited pressure. Zheng Cotton is expected to maintain short - term fluctuations with a limited range, and it's advisable to exit the market before the Spring Festival [56]. - Internationally, U.S. cotton export data is strong, with stable old - crop exports and record - high new - crop exports. Consumption has overall resilience. But macro factors may have some suppression, such as a weak global economy and a strong U.S. dollar. U.S. cotton is in a weak - range fluctuation, but there is strong support around 60 cents per pound, and low prices may trigger purchases [56]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: Zheng Cotton had a slight weekly decline of 0.61%, and ICE cotton had a weekly decline of 2.09% [12]. - **Spot Prices**: The cotton price index declined this week. The 3128 index dropped 171 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index dropped 158 yuan/ton [17]. - **Import Situation**: In December, 180,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons [22]. - **Inventory Situation**: - In the first half of January, the commercial cotton inventory was 5.8623 million tons, and the market entered an accelerated inventory - building phase [27]. - In December, the yarn inventory was 25.12 days, a year - on - year decrease of 3.67 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 33.76 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.33 days [32]. - **Yarn Prices**: This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S remained flat, the price of C32S increased by 25 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the price of JC40S remained flat [37]. - **Zhengshang Institute Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: This week, the total number of Zheng Cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 410. There were 10,500 warehouse receipts and 1,283 effective forecasts, totaling 11,783 [42]. - **U.S. Cotton Export Situation**: As of January 29, the net sales of U.S. upland cotton exports in the current year increased by 248,300 bales, and the net sales in the next year were 114,900 bales [50]. - **U.S. Weather Situation**: The total area in drought (D1 - D4) in the U.S. was 37.4%, with different drought - level percentages in each category [53]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - **Domestic Market**: Zheng Cotton will maintain short - term fluctuations, and it's advisable to exit the market before the Spring Festival due to high supply pressure but limited downstream pressure [56]. - **International Market**: U.S. cotton will maintain a weak - range fluctuation, but there is strong support around 60 cents per pound, and low prices may trigger purchases despite macro suppression [56].

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Overall Changes Are Minimal, Cotton Prices Range-bound [1] Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the cotton market has shown minimal changes, with cotton prices expected to range-bound. The international market anticipates weak and fluctuating trends in US cotton, while the domestic market has certain fundamental support but is also likely to experience range-bound movements in the short term [1][8][28] Summary of Each Section Part I: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: The signing situation is average, and the US cotton is expected to trend weakly with fluctuations [8]. - **US Cotton Growth**: As of January 30, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton reached 2.9618 million tons, accounting for 97.7% of the estimated annual US cotton production, 6% slower year-on-year. The inspection progress is steadily advancing but slower compared to the same period last year. The weekly deliverable ratio has significantly rebounded, while the quarterly deliverable ratio remains flat [8]. - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week of January 29, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 56,700 tons, a 23% weekly increase but a 5% decrease compared to the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly shipment volume was 53,400 tons, a 9% weekly decrease but a 25% increase compared to the average of the previous four weeks [8]. - **CFTC**: As of January 30, the number of unsold contracts on the ON - CALL 2603 contract decreased by 4,319 to 10,116, a reduction of 100,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total number of unsold contracts in the 2025/26 season decreased by 3,672 to 34,040, equivalent to 770,000 tons, a reduction of 80,000 tons compared to the previous week [8]. - **Brazil**: As of January 31, the cotton planting in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 78.6% complete, an 18 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and 22.5 percentage points faster year - on - year, 3.3 percentage points faster than the average of the past three years [8]. - **Pakistan**: As of January 31, 2026, the cumulative new cotton market volume in Pakistan's 2025/26 season reached 859,000 tons, a 0.6% year - on - year increase. Textile mills' purchases increased, and the unsold inventory decreased due to the rebound in domestic yarn consumption [8]. - **Global**: According to the latest January global cotton production and sales forecast by USDA, the changes are minimal. The global cotton production in January was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the previous month. The total production in the US decreased by 80,000 tons to 3.03 million tons. The total consumption increased by 70,000 tons to 25.89 million tons. The ending inventory decreased by 320,000 tons to 16.22 million tons [8]. Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: New cotton picking is mostly finished, and Xinjiang's ginning factories are in the final stage of processing. As of February 4, 2026, the cumulative public inspection of cotton was 7.340445 million tons, a 14.86% year - on - year increase. As of January 30, 2026, the total commercial cotton inventory was 5.6487 million tons, a 49,400 - ton (0.87%) decrease from the previous week [28]. - **Demand Side**: The market sales are good, with the cumulative sales of lint cotton as of January 29 reaching 4.772 million tons, at a high level compared to the same period in previous years. As of February 5, the operating load of mainstream textile enterprises was 60.5%, a 5.76% decrease from the previous week. The raw material inventory of textile enterprises has been slightly adjusted [28]. - **Comprehensive View**: The current market contradictions are not significant. Although the cotton sales progress is fast, considering the approaching Spring Festival, the short - term demand is expected to have minimal changes. The cotton price has certain fundamental support but is likely to range - bound in the short term [28] Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: The current market contradictions are not significant. The previous expectation of a decrease in the new - season cotton planting area has been reflected in the market. The demand side is currently strong, but considering the approaching Spring Festival, the short - term demand is expected to change minimally. The cotton price has certain fundamental support but is likely to range - bound in the short term [40]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [41]. - **Unilateral Trading**: In the short term, US cotton is expected to trend weakly with fluctuations, while Zhengzhou cotton is likely to range - bound [42]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [42] Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: Charts showing the internal and external cotton price difference and the price difference trend between September and January contracts are provided [45][46]. - **Cotton Inventory**: Data on national cotton commercial inventory, textile enterprises' industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory are presented [48]. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: Charts of the spot - futures basis of cotton, including the basis of different contract months, are provided [51]

Core Insights - Azerbaijan's cotton production is projected to reach 97,000 tons in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.6% [1] - As of January 1, 2026, cotton inventory stands at 36,000 tons [1] - Cotton yarn production is expected to reach 22,000 tons in 2025, with an 18.4% year-on-year growth, and inventory at 5,183 tons [1] Export Data - Cotton exports are forecasted at 114,000 tons in 2025, showing a decline of 4.7% year-on-year, with export revenue at $160 million, down 9.1% [1] - Cotton yarn exports are anticipated to be 15,000 tons, marking a 30.5% increase year-on-year, with export revenue of $34.02 million, up 19.2% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, non - ferrous metals led by precious metals and energy chemicals fluctuated, driving Zhengzhou cotton prices up and down. Zhengzhou cotton showed obvious resistance to decline during the general commodity price drop [5]. - There are no significant changes in the industrial aspect. The operating rate and finished - product inventory are steadily declining. The firm spot basis strongly supports cotton prices, while the high domestic - foreign price gap limits the upside. Overall, the upward and downward driving forces in the industrial aspect are both weak, and it is expected to fluctuate mainly [5]. - Attention should be paid to the macro - situation, especially the trade agreement between the US and India reached on February 2nd. The US will reduce the "reciprocal tariff" on India from 25% to 18%, and India will correspondingly reduce tariffs and non - tariff barriers on the US to zero, and promise to buy over $500 billion worth of US energy products, and may also buy oil from Venezuela. Indian officials confirmed that they will buy $500 billion worth of US goods in the next five years, and the US will revoke the 25% tariff on India [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US Cotton Situation - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US cotton was 2.9618 million tons, accounting for 97.7% of the estimated annual US cotton output, with the total volume 6% lower than the same period last year. According to the January USDA supply - demand report, this year's US cotton output decreased by 3.4% year - on - year, and there is little room for output adjustment [7]. - As of the week of January 22, the weekly signing volume of US upland cotton in 2025/26 was 46,200 tons, a 51% decrease from the previous week, a 17% decrease from the four - week average, and a 42% decrease year - on - year. Among them, Pakistan signed 11,800 tons and Vietnam 10,300 tons [27]. 3.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - As of January 29, the national new cotton sales rate was 64.9%, 22.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 27 percentage points faster than the average of the past four years. Supported by factors such as the fast sales progress of lint cotton and the expected decline in cotton planting area in the new year, the spot sales basis is firm [8]. - Since mid - to - late January, ICE US cotton prices have significantly declined. Meanwhile, domestic Zhengzhou cotton has fluctuated within a range, further expanding the domestic - foreign cotton price gap. As of Wednesday this week, the price gap between the 328 cotton price index and the port pick - up price of imported cotton under the sliding - scale duty exceeded 3,600 yuan/ton, and the gap under the 1% tariff was about 2,400 yuan/ton. The high price gap limits the upward trend of Zhengzhou cotton [8]. - As of February 2, the cotton inspection volume in the 2025/26 season was 7.29 million tons, a 14.1% increase year - on - year [44]. 3.3 Price and Basis - As of Wednesday this week, the 328 cotton spot price index increased by [missing value] yuan/ton week - on - week; the closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract increased by [missing value] yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis between them expanded by [missing value] yuan/ton week - on - week. The C32S yarn price index increased by 60 yuan/ton week - on - week; the closing price of the Zhengzhou yarn main contract increased by - 110 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis between them expanded by 170 yuan/ton week - on - week [56][57]. - On Wednesday this week, the price gap between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the port pick - up price of imported cotton under the sliding - scale duty increased by 214 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the gap under the 1% tariff increased by 156 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price gap between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port pick - up price increased by 31 yuan/ton week - on - week [61]. - On Wednesday this week, on the futures market, the price gap between the Zhengzhou yarn main contract and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was 5,915 yuan/ton, expanding by 130 yuan/ton week - on - week. The immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure cotton yarn was - 1,827 yuan/ton, and the loss margin narrowed by 15 yuan/ton week - on - week [65]. 3.4 Inventory and Position - As of Wednesday this week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 11,807; the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 7 [75].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The cotton market is expected to maintain a volatile trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2605 closed at 14,575 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.65% and a night - session close of 14,635 yuan/ton with a 0.41% increase; CY2603 closed at 20,405 yuan/ton with a 0.44% decline and a night - session close of 20,435 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase; ICE US cotton 3 closed at 62.8 cents/pound with a 0.49% decline [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: CF2605 trading volume was 599,538 lots, a decrease of 98,627 lots from the previous day, and open interest was 994,666 lots, a decrease of 16,081 lots; CY2603 trading volume was 5,807 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and open interest was 4,884 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts were 10,325, an increase of 36, and effective forecasts were 1,191, an increase of 107; cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 0, unchanged, and effective forecasts were 7, a decrease of 7 [1] - **Spot Prices**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,614 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan or 0.51%; Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 0.58%; Shandong was 16,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 124 yuan or 0.76%; Hebei was 16,162 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan or 0.49%; the 3128B index was 16,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 113 yuan or 0.70%; the international cotton index M was 0.00 cents/pound, unchanged; pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 21,455 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan or 0.12%; the arrival price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 21,396 yuan/ton, an increase of 369 yuan or 1.75% [1] - **Price Spreads**: The CF3 - 5 spread was not given, and the previous day's spread was 35 yuan/ton with a 5 - yuan increase; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was not given, and the previous day's spread was 1,040 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan increase [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: New cotton spot trading was average, with more point - price transactions for previously locked basis - difference spot. The basis was generally stable. The sales basis for 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29B with impurities within 3.5 was mostly at CF05 + 1150 or above, and a small amount was lower, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang; for 2025/26 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 3129/29B with impurities within 3 - 3.5, a small amount had a low basis at CF05 + 900 - 1000, and more had a sales basis at CF05 + 1000 or above, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure - cotton yarn was temporarily stable, and the shipment atmosphere was mostly light. Recently, some large factories reduced prices to clear inventory, while small and medium - sized factories sold at market prices. Some small factories had already taken holidays and shut down. Downstream weaving and dyeing factories were in the final stage of pre - holiday holidays, with a low operating rate. Rigid - demand procurement basically stopped, and there were few new orders in the market, with most transactions being sporadic replenishment orders [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures continued to decline yesterday. On the one hand, it was technically weak, and on the other hand, it was affected by the rising US dollar and the decline in the overall risk appetite of the commodity market [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 1, indicating a relatively neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - In the medium - to - long term, with the reduction of planting area in the new season and the positive future macro - expectations, cotton prices still have room to rise. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [9] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: As of January 24, the cotton planting rate in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 60.6%, compared with 36.3% in the previous week, 46.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 40.9%. As of the week of January 23, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.2%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The January forecast of global cotton production for the 2025/26 season was 26 million tons, an 80,000 - ton decrease from the December forecast and a 200,000 - ton increase from the previous season; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a 1.42 - percentage - point decrease from the December forecast and a 0.62 - percentage - point increase from the previous season. The January forecast of US production was 3.03 million tons, a 76,000 - ton decrease from the December forecast, with export estimates unchanged and an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 30.43%, a 2.17 - percentage - point decrease. Brazil's production estimate remained at 4.08 million tons; India's production decreased by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; China's production increased by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. From January 15 to January 22, US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, with cumulative export sales of 1.7722 million tons, a 194,900 - ton decrease year - on - year; of which, exports to China were 8,800 tons that week, with cumulative exports of 97,400 tons, a 66,000 - ton decrease year - on - year. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a 40,000 - ton increase year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a 1.56 - million - ton decrease year - on - year [9] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis was 1,485 yuan/ton with a +0.5 long - short score and a strengthening basis; the Zhengzhou cotton 5 - 9 spread was - 140 yuan/ton with a +0 score and little change; the spinning immediate profit was - 1,623 yuan/ton with a +0 score and a profit decrease; the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread was 376 yuan/ton with a +0 score and little change; the FC index M 1% was 12,485 yuan/ton and the FC index M sliding - duty was 13,664 yuan/ton, with a - 0.5 score and a relatively high domestic premium. The summary was to pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying [10] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: For the unilateral strategy, the operation suggestion was to buy on dips, with the core driving logic being the reduction of planting area in the new season and good macro - expectations [11] 3.2. Spread Trend Review - **Spot Price and Basis**: Figures showed the trends of the China Cotton Price Index and the basis of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract [27] - **Import Profit**: Figures presented the 1% tariff and sliding - duty price differences between domestic and foreign cotton [29] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Monthly Spread**: Figures showed the trends of the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 and 5 - 9 spreads [31] - **Production and Sales Area Spread and Spinning Profit**: Figures displayed the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and the spinning mill's immediate profit [33] - **Foreign Market Spread**: Figures showed the spreads between different US cotton contracts and the price differences between US and Brazilian cotton and other indices [35][37] 3.3. Domestic Market Situation - **Domestic Cotton Production**: Figures showed the processing and inspection quantity of Chinese cotton and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton [41] - **Cotton Import Volume**: Figures presented the monthly and cumulative annual import volumes of Chinese cotton [43] - **US Export Contract Quantity to China**: Figures showed the cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of the US to China [46] - **Cotton Yarn Import Volume**: Figures presented the monthly and cumulative annual import volumes of Chinese cotton yarn [48] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: Figures showed the operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills [51] - **National Sales Progress**: Figures presented the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City [54] - **Cotton Inventory**: Figures showed the weekly commercial inventory of Chinese cotton and the monthly inventory of commercial and industrial sectors [56] - **Spinning Mill Raw Material and Finished - Product Inventory**: Figures presented the cotton and yarn inventories of spinning mills [58] 3.4. International Market Situation - **US Planting Situation**: Figures showed the proportion of US cotton - planting areas without drought and the cotton good - quality rate [62] - **US Production Situation**: Figures presented the bi - weekly and cumulative processing volumes of US cotton, as well as the production estimate and planting area [64][65] - **US Export Contract Progress**: Figures showed the cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of US cotton in the current year [67] - **US Export Shipment Volume**: Figures presented the annual cumulative and weekly export shipment volumes of US cotton [69] - **US Supply and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: Figures showed the supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio of US cotton [70] - **Brazilian Production and Planting Area**: Figures presented the planting area and production of Brazilian cotton [72] - **Brazilian Export Volume**: Figures showed the export volume estimate and monthly export volume of Brazilian cotton, as well as the supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio [74][75] - **Indian Production and Planting Area**: Figures presented the planting area and production of Indian cotton [77] - **Indian Consumption and Import - Export**: Figures showed the consumption, import - export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Indian cotton [79][80]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton generally fluctuated around 14,500. After a previous rapid rise, it is currently digesting the gains, with insufficient upward momentum and support on the downside [4]. - As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream factories are shutting down for the holiday. After a round of rapid increases, downstream enterprises are reluctant to stock up in large quantities and are mainly taking a wait - and - see approach. The main 05 contract has entered a consolidation phase and may fluctuate around 14,500 in the short term [5]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the cotton market. Positive factors include the expected reduction of over 10% in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises, and a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US compared to the previous period. Negative factors include a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the large - scale listing of new cotton, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - This week, cotton fluctuated around 14,500. After a previous rapid rise, it is digesting the gains. There are expectations of a reduction of over 10% in the Xinjiang cotton planting area in 2026. According to the USDA December report, the production in the 25/26 season is 26.081 million tons, consumption is 25.823 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.541 million tons. In November, textile and clothing exports were $23.869 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.12%. In December, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 31%, and 170,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's December 25/26 season data, production is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.35 million tons [4]. 2. Daily Prompt - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream factories are on holiday. After the rapid rise of cotton, downstream enterprises are taking a wait - and - see approach. The main 05 contract may fluctuate around 14,500 in the short term [5]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the report 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In the 25/26 season, the total global production is 26.004 million tons, a decrease of 77,000 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year increase of 1% and an increase of 208,000 tons compared to the previous year. Total consumption is 25.891 million tons, an increase of 68,000 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year increase of 0.4% and a decrease of 5,000 tons compared to the previous year. Total imports are 9.527 million tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year increase of 2% and an increase of 157,000 tons compared to the previous year. Total exports are 9.53 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year increase of 3% and an increase of 300,000 tons compared to the previous year. The ending inventory is 16.217 million tons, a decrease of 324,000 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year increase of 1% and an increase of 157,000 tons compared to the previous year [11][12]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast (November 2025)**: In the 25/26 season, the area is 30.41385 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, the production is 25.39956 million tons, the beginning inventory is 15.83577 million tons, imports are 9.71442 million tons, consumption is 25.00778 million tons, exports are 9.71412 million tons, the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 0.65 [14]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: In the 25/26 season, the beginning inventory is 9.853 million tons, production is 7.278 million tons, imports are 1.1 million tons, consumption is 8.1 million tons, and the ending inventory is 10.116 million tons [16]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) fluctuated more significantly this week, following the overall trend of commodities. Driven by macro - positive factors, it rose significantly on Wednesday with obvious capital inflows, but was pressured around 15,000 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, although it is the off - season, cotton procurement still has rigid demand support. The strong basis boosts Zhengmian. The yarn and cotton prices are in a linked state, and the industrial chain is relatively healthy. The expected reduction in planting area needs to be implemented step - by - step without official confirmation. Overall, Zhengmian has short - term resistance above and support below, and is expected to maintain a volatile trend [53]. - Internationally, the drought index in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas has slightly declined but remains at a relatively high level in recent years, and drought is expected to continue in the first quarter. The India - EU Free Trade Agreement has been officially signed, and India's textile export tariffs to the EU will be reduced after months of review and approval. Indian cotton prices and the quotes of the Cotton Corporation of India are stable. India has purchased about 30% of the expected production of lint cotton this season, and the auction turnover is lower than the listing volume. The yarn price in Vietnam is stable, orders are active with price - increase expectations, the yarn in Pakistan shows a strong trend, while the Indian yarn has a large bargaining space due to weak demand. Overall, there is support at the bottom of the international market, but the rebound space is limited, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend [53]. - The operation suggestion is mainly short - term trading [54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price - Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated sharply this week with a weekly decline of 0.17%. ICE cotton futures fluctuated weakly with a weekly decline of 0.97% [9]. 3.1.2 Spot Price - This week, the cotton price index rebounded. The 3128 index decreased by 307 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index decreased by 313 yuan/ton compared with last week [14]. 3.1.3 Cotton Import - In December, 180,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons [19]. 3.1.4 Cotton Inventory - In the first half of January, the commercial inventory of cotton was 5.8623 million tons. With a large amount of new cotton on the market, the market has entered an accelerated inventory - accumulation stage [24]. 3.1.5 Downstream Inventory - In December, the yarn inventory was 25.12 days, a year - on - year decrease of 3.67 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 33.76 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.33 days [29]. 3.1.6 Yarn Price - This week, yarn prices increased. The price of OE 10S棉纱 increased by 70 yuan/ton compared with last week, the price of C32S棉纱 increased by 110 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the price of JC40S棉纱 increased by 90 yuan/ton compared with last week [34]. 3.1.7 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 223. The number of warehouse receipts was 10,243, and the valid forecast was 1,072, totaling 11,315 [39]. 3.1.8 Seed Cotton Purchase - The content only shows the price data of Xinjiang seed cotton purchase, but no specific analysis or summary information [42]. 3.1.9 U.S. Cotton Exports - According to the USDA weekly export sales report, as of January 22, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the current year increased by 203,700 bales, and the net export sales in the next year were 15,000 bales [47]. 3.1.10 U.S. Weather - The drought in the U.S. cotton - producing areas is still at a relatively high level. The total area in drought (D1 - D4) accounts for 36.0% [50]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a volatile trend with short - term resistance above and support below. Internationally, the international cotton market is also expected to maintain a volatile trend with support at the bottom and limited rebound space [53]. - The operation suggestion is mainly short - term trading [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, supported by fundamentals. The new - year market rumors of a production cut have some support for the cotton price, but short - term demand may have limited boost to the market due to the approaching Spring Festival [5][6]. - It is recommended to build long positions on dips in the unilateral trading of cotton, and to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [7][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In January, cotton futures prices were mainly volatile and slightly stronger. The short - term supply was relatively loose as new cotton processing was almost finished, and the rumor of a production cut in the new year supported the cotton price. The downstream orders were average, and the approaching Spring Festival led to limited short - term demand boost. The fundamentals of US cotton changed little, and it was expected to remain range - bound [5]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - In terms of fundamentals, the supply in the current year is expected to remain loose, but there are rumors of a production cut in the new year. The expected reduction of Xinjiang's cotton planting area by 2660000 mu (7%) in 2026 may support the market. The market had some restocking before, but due to the approaching Spring Festival, the short - term demand boost was expected to be limited [6]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The cotton fundamentals are still strong, and there is upward space in the long - run. It is recommended to build long positions on dips. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [7][11]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the first - part market review, in January, cotton futures prices were volatile and slightly stronger. The short - term supply was relatively loose, and the new - year production cut rumor supported the price. The downstream demand was average, and the Spring Festival limited short - term demand. US cotton fundamentals changed little and were expected to be range - bound [13]. 3.2.2 International Market - In the 25/26 cotton season, the global cotton production was adjusted down by 80000 tons to 26 million tons compared to the previous month, with an increase in China (220000 tons) and decreases in India (110000 tons) and the US (80000 tons). The demand was adjusted up, and the ending inventory decreased. Attention should be paid to the USDA planting plan in February [14]. 3.2.3 United States - The production of US cotton in the 25/26 season was adjusted slightly. The new - year cotton - grain ratio is not advantageous, and the planting area is likely to be reduced. As of January 15, the cumulative signing volume of US cotton was 1.6669 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.91%, and the cumulative shipment volume was 755300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.98%. China's cumulative signing volume was 82400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 46.72%, and the cumulative shipment was 32900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66.13%. As of January 23, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US cotton was 2.9374 million tons, accounting for 96.9% of the annual estimated production, with a slower progress year - on - year [16][17]. 3.2.4 Other Countries - India: The CAI's report shows that as of December 31, 2025, the production in the 2025/26 season was adjusted up by 130000 tons, domestic demand by 170000 tons, and exports down by 50000 tons, leading to an increase in ending inventory by 10000 tons compared to the previous month. As of November 30, 2025, the cumulative market volume of Indian cotton was 2.64 million tons, with a market progress of 49%, a year - on - year increase of 16%. - Brazil: As of January 10, the cotton planting progress in the 2025/26 season was 31.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 percentage points, but slower than the same period last year and the three - year average, mainly due to the stagnant planting in Bahia [18][22]. 3.2.5 Domestic Market - Supply: As of mid - January, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.86 million tons, at a high level in the same period over the years. As of January 22, the cumulative picked lint cotton was 7.407 million tons, the cumulative sold lint cotton was 4.631 million tons, a significant year - on - year increase. In December 2025, the imported cotton was 177300 tons. The current internal - external price difference is around 2900 yuan/ton, and imported cotton has an advantage. - Demand: It is currently the off - season, and the approaching Spring Festival limits short - term demand. As of mid - January, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 931400 tons, the yarn inventory was 26.35 days, and the grey cloth inventory was 31.112 days. In December, domestic demand was fair, while external demand was average [24][25][26]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 3.3.1 Market Outlook - Global: The cotton production in the 25/26 season is expected to be around 25 - 26 million tons, and in the 26/27 season, it is likely to be around 25.5 - 26.5 million tons. The demand is expected to change little. Attention should be paid to the USDA annual meeting's planting plan in February. - Domestic: In the 25/26 season, the cotton supply is expected to be sufficient in the short - term, but there may be low - inventory trading factors in June - August. The new - year planting area is rumored to decrease, and the production in the 26/27 season may decline. The demand is expected to be neutral to slightly positive, with domestic demand likely to remain stable and exports possibly improving due to the easing of Sino - US relations [50][51].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is in consolidation, waiting for new drivers [1] - The trend strength of cotton is 1, indicating a relatively neutral view [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures: CF2605 closed at 14,650 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.31%, and the night - session closed at 14,580 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.48%. CY2603 closed at 20,515 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.05%, and the night - session closed at 20,435 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.39%. ICE US cotton 3 closed at 62.94 cents/pound with a decline of 1.41% [1] - Spot: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,574 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.23% from the previous day; South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21%. The 3128B index was 15,995 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.79% [1] - Spreads: The CF3 - 5 spread was 45 yuan/ton, and the difference between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 920 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News - Domestic cotton spot: The overall trading of cotton spot was light, and the basis was mostly stable. The quotes of 2025/26 South Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3 were mostly above CF05 + 950 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang; the mainstream basis of 2025/26 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked 3130/30 with impurity within 3 in Shandong and Henan warehouses was around CF05 + 1600 - 1750 for self - pick - up in the inland [2] - Domestic cotton textile enterprises: The quotes of pure cotton yarn were mostly stable, and the market trading atmosphere was still light. As the Spring Festival approached, some downstream weaving and dyeing factories began to enter the holiday period, and terminal demand continued to shrink. The procurement of downstream was mainly for rigid demand, and the willingness for large - scale restocking was insufficient. The orders of spinning enterprises showed obvious differentiation. Some spinning enterprises had sufficient pre - holiday orders and could maintain normal production, while the new orders of some spinning enterprises declined significantly. The price of open - end spinning decreased slightly recently [2] - US cotton: The ICE cotton futures fell yesterday due to technical selling pressure. The market was still worried about the export prospects of US cotton, and attention was paid to whether the low price could attract spot buyers [2]