短线震荡， 等待回调做多 棉花周报 2026/01/24 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 国内市场情况 02 价差走势回顾 04 国际市场情况 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 行业信息：据海关总署数据显示，2025年12月份我国进口棉花18万吨，同比增加4万吨。2025年我国累计进口棉花108万吨，同比减少156万 吨。据Mysteel数据显示，截至1月16日当周，纺纱厂开机率为64.6%，环比前一周下调0.1个百分点，较去年同期增加8.6个百分点；全国棉 花商业库存569万吨，同比增加38万吨。据USDA数据显示，1月预测2025/26年度全球产量为2600万吨，环比12月预测下调8万吨，较上年度增 加20万吨；库存消费比62.63%，环比12月预测减少1.42个百分点，较上年度增加0.62个百分点。其中1月预测美国产量303万吨，环比12月预 测减少7.6万吨，出口预估维持不变，库存消费比30.43%，环比减少2.17个百 ...

第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 第一部分 国内外市场分析 目录 棉系周报：基本面有所支撑 棉价震荡为主 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分 国内外市场分析 内容摘要 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 国际市场分析 ◼ 国内市场分析 ◼ 期权交易策略 ◼ 期货交易策略 国际市场分析 68/84/105 3 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87 ...

Core Insights - The cotton production in Xinjiang has surpassed 6 million tons for the first time, reaching 6.165 million tons, accounting for 92.8% of the national total [1] - The cotton industry is evolving towards mechanization and smart technology, enhancing efficiency and stability in production [2][3] Mechanization and Efficiency - The transition to mechanized farming has significantly reduced labor costs and increased efficiency, with a single machine now able to harvest 5,000 acres in just 12 days compared to 100 acres requiring 12 workers for two months previously [2] - The comprehensive mechanization rate for cotton farming in Shaya County has remained above 95% for five consecutive years, with 54,700 agricultural machines available [2] Scientific Seed Selection - The seed selection process has become more data-driven, with farmers now relying on scientific reports and trials to choose varieties based on disease resistance and yield potential [4][5] - The coverage rate of quality cotton seeds in Xinjiang has increased to over 98%, with significant improvements in yield per acre from 285 kg in 2017 to 442 kg in 2025 [6] Extended Industry Chain - The cotton industry chain has been extended, allowing for local processing of cotton, which reduces transportation costs and time, enhancing profitability for farmers [7] - The textile industry in Xinjiang has developed a comprehensive value chain, contributing to job creation and increased income for local communities [7]

Core Viewpoint - The cotton industry in Xinjiang is experiencing significant advancements in mechanization, scientific seed selection, and an extended industrial chain, leading to increased efficiency, higher yields, and improved income for farmers [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. Group 1: Mechanization and Efficiency - The mechanization of cotton farming has transformed the industry, with farmers now using advanced machinery for planting, pest control, and harvesting, resulting in a dramatic reduction in labor costs and time [2][3]. - The comprehensive mechanization rate for cotton farming in Shaya County has remained above 95% for five consecutive years, with 54,700 agricultural machines available [2][3]. - Farmers are transitioning from manual labor to technology-driven practices, enhancing productivity and operational efficiency [2][3]. Group 2: Scientific Seed Selection - The process of seed selection has become more scientific, with farmers now relying on data and research rather than traditional methods, leading to better crop resilience and yields [4][5][6]. - Xinjiang has achieved a cotton seed coverage rate of over 98%, with significant improvements in cotton yield per acre, increasing from 285 kg/acre in 2017 to 442 kg/acre in 2025 [6]. Group 3: Extended Industrial Chain - The cotton industry in Shaya County has developed a complete industrial chain, allowing for local processing of cotton, which reduces transportation costs and time, and increases profitability for farmers [7]. - Local textile enterprises are now able to process cotton into various products, significantly increasing the added value compared to selling raw cotton [7]. - The development of the textile and garment industry in Xinjiang is creating job opportunities and contributing to the economic well-being of local communities [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the decline in cotton area in Xinjiang is a certain event, but the market doubts the actual decline, and it is difficult to confirm in the short term. Based on the area expectation and the domestic lint sales progress, there is strong support below the Zhengzhou cotton price. Meanwhile, the downstream demand is average, and factors such as the stable - to - decreasing spinning mill operation rate and poor profitability restrict the price increase. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is advisable to go long on dips. Attention should be paid to the macro - environment and downstream restocking [4]. - The USDA increased the domestic cotton production forecast in the 2025/26 season by 1 million bales to 34.5 million bales, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. As of January 11, the national cotton inspection volume was 6.7838 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.62%, and the increase has narrowed compared with the initial stage. If the gap with the USDA's 7.8% production increase does not continue to narrow, there is still a possibility of further production adjustment, but the adjustment volume is expected to be limited. In January, the USDA slightly increased the US cotton production forecast by 350,000 bales, which is in line with the conclusion of "limited adjustment space" in the previous report [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs New Cotton Area and Sales - In late December, the Xinjiang Cotton Association announced that the cotton area would decline, but did not specify the decline rate. The market expects a reduction in the cotton target price in 2026, which will affect the cotton planting willingness in Xinjiang and is bullish for cotton prices in the medium - to - long term [5]. - As of January 8, 2026, the national lint sales rate was 55.6%, 24.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 27.6 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. As of the end of December, the domestic commercial cotton inventory was 5.7843 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1 million tons, with the increase rate basically the same as that of the same period last year and a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons. Despite the significant increase in cotton production this year, there is no obvious increase in commercial inventory, and the overall inventory pressure is temporarily not large [5]. Price and Spread - Domestic Zhengzhou cotton shows a relatively strong trend due to the resonance of supply expectation tightening and market sentiment, while US cotton fluctuates narrowly due to weak continuous signing. The domestic - foreign cotton price spread has widened to a stage high. Geopolitical turmoil and uncertainties in trade policies in the international market may affect cotton demand [6]. - As of Tuesday this week, the price spread between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the port delivery price index of imported cotton under the sliding - scale duty increased by a certain amount week - on - week; the price spread with the port delivery price of imported cotton under the 1% tariff also increased week - on - week. The price spread between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port delivery price increased week - on - week [52]. Market Transaction and Inventory - According to the USDA weekly export report, as of the week ending January 1, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 22,200 tons, a 27% decrease from the previous week, a 49% decrease from the four - week average, and a 24% decrease year - on - year [21]. - As of January 12, the cotton inspection volume in the 2025/26 season was 6.819 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.42% [36]. - As of Tuesday this week, the sum of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 10,117 sheets; the sum of Zhengzhou cotton yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 77 sheets [61]. Downstream Situation - The downstream demand is average. Spinning mill operation rates are stable - to - decreasing, and profitability is poor, which restricts the increase of cotton prices [4]. - Information on downstream raw material inventories (such as cotton in yarn mills and cotton yarn in weaving mills), finished - product inventories, and operating loads is presented in relevant charts, but specific numerical summaries are not clearly given in the text [41][44][46].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton supply - demand is basically balanced but shows an overall pattern of oversupply, with main supply growth points in China and Brazil, a decline in Australian output, and a significant reduction in Chinese consumption. The inventory - to - consumption ratio remains the same as last year [1]. - The U.S. cotton has had two consecutive years of bumper harvests, leading to a loose supply - demand situation in the international cotton market and putting downward pressure on ICE cotton prices. Vietnam has become the largest importer of U.S. cotton this year, and U.S. cotton faces great export pressure due to the deteriorating global trade environment [1]. - In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton market continues to have a loose supply - demand pattern. Benefiting from the release of Xinjiang's production capacity, the surplus cotton inventory in the market has been digested, but downstream orders have not improved substantially, squeezing textile enterprises' profits. The situation is unlikely to change in 2026, and attention should be paid to policies to boost consumption and their impact on commodity prices [1]. - China's cotton imports have shifted to Brazil and Australia. Brazil's cotton output has been hitting new highs, while Australia's output has been on a declining trend in recent years. The similar weather conditions in the two southern - hemisphere countries have increased supply uncertainty [2]. - In 2026, as the gap in planting income between cotton and corn/soybeans widens and China's cotton target - price subsidy policy is to be adjusted, the planting area may be adjusted, which will support cotton prices in the long - term. The price upward drive may be stronger than the downward pressure, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes in the first half of the year and policy price regulation [3]. Summary of Each Section 1. Market Review - In 2025, the Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a bottom - oscillating trend. From January to April, the price oscillated downward due to factors such as the market's over - heating correction, low inventory levels, consumption off - season, and Sino - U.S. trade frictions [10]. - From May to August, the cotton price rose as Sino - U.S. trade talks led to a reduction in tariff rates, and China's textile and clothing exports increased, along with a decline in industrial and commercial inventories [10]. - From September to October, the cotton price peaked and declined because of issues such as high delivery premiums and a high - opening - low - going new - cotton purchase price [11]. - From November to December, the cotton price rose again as Sino - U.S. trade negotiations made progress, tariffs were cancelled or postponed, and there were positive expectations for supply and demand [11]. 2. Supply - Demand Structure Analysis (1) Global - In the 2025/26 season, global cotton output increased slightly, consumption decreased slightly, and the supply - demand structure remained basically balanced. The main supply growth points were in China and Brazil, with a decline in Australian output, and the main consumption growth point was in Pakistan, but it could not offset the significant reduction in Chinese consumption [14]. - According to the USDA's December supply - demand report, the global cotton output in 2025/26 was 26.1142 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.43%. Consumption was 25.857 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.27%. The ending inventory was 16.1615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.82%, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio remained the same as last year [14]. - The gap in planting income between cotton and corn/soybeans has been widening, and the substitution effect may continue, so global cotton output may be adjusted in the future [15]. (2) U.S. Cotton - In the 2025/26 season, U.S. cotton had a bumper harvest for the second consecutive year, leading to a loose international supply - demand situation and putting downward pressure on ICE cotton prices. The output was 3.1109 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%, and the export was estimated to be 2.659 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.52% [21]. - Affected by Sino - U.S. trade tensions, China's imports of U.S. cotton continued to decline. Vietnam became the largest importer of U.S. cotton this year. As of December 11, 2025, China had signed contracts for 60,000 tons of U.S. cotton, less than half of last year, while Vietnam had signed contracts for 430,000 tons [23]. - As of December 12, the U.S. cotton export and signing progress was slightly slower than last year, but the shipment - to - signing ratio increased by 9.46 percentage points to 41.16% [23]. (3) Brazil and Australia - In the 2025/26 season, Brazil's cotton output was expected to be 4.0875 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.29%, with an export of 3.161 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.36%. Australia's output was expected to be 981,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.64%, and the export was expected to be 1.1118 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.39% [28]. - Brazil's increasing output has increased supply liquidity and pressured import prices. Australia's output has been fluctuating and declining in recent years. The similar weather in the two southern - hemisphere countries has increased supply uncertainty [28]. (4) China - In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton output was expected to reach a record high of 7.303 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.69%, consumption was expected to be 8.393 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.28%, and imports were expected to be 1.1772 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.15% [32]. - China's state reserve has not carried out cotton rotation this year, and the domestic cotton inventory in the state reserve is estimated to be only 201,000 tons, at a relatively low level [32]. - China's cotton textile industry's PMI index has been hovering around the boom - bust line, indicating poor industry prosperity. The textile enterprises' operating rate is low, and the industry's profit is poor throughout the year [32]. - China's cotton market continued to have a loose supply - demand pattern in 2025/26. Although Xinjiang's production capacity has digested the surplus inventory, downstream orders have not improved, and it is difficult to change the situation in 2026 [33]. 3. Industry Operation Status (1) Seed - Cotton Cost, Production Enthusiasm, and Imports - In 2025, the cost of seed - cotton converted to lint was around 14,800 yuan/ton. China's cotton imports were only 900,000 tons this year, mainly from Brazil and Australia, and the proportion of U.S. cotton imports further decreased [37]. - Due to poor industry profits, the production enthusiasm of yarn and fabric enterprises was low, but the new production capacity in Xinjiang prevented a sharp increase in inventory [37]. - The current situation of low industry profits, high inventory, and low operating rates may continue [38]. (2) Domestic Demand and Export Trade - In 2025, domestic consumption was strong, with the cumulative retail sales of clothing and textile products increasing year - on - year, but export trade deteriorated, with the export of clothing and textile products decreasing year - on - year [41]. - In 2026, the international trade environment is more complex. Although the Sino - U.S. agreement to cancel a 24% tariff provides a short - term calm period, textile and clothing exports still face many difficulties [41]. 4. Future Outlook - In recent years, global cotton supply - demand has been stable but lackluster. In 2025, the supply - demand was basically balanced, and cotton prices were at a low level. In 2026, the planting area may be adjusted, which will support cotton prices in the long - term, and the market's long - short game may intensify from January to April [45]. - China's cotton textile industry has been shifting to Xinjiang, and the new production capacity in Xinjiang in 2026 will help stabilize cotton demand. Although the export of textile and clothing products will still face pressure, the short - term tariff suspension between China and the U.S. is conducive to the recovery of foreign trade [45]. - Overall, cotton prices are at a historical low, increasing price volatility. In 2026, the upward price drive may be stronger than the downward pressure, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes in the first half of the year and policy price regulation [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Affected by the expected reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang and the better - than - expected downstream operation in the off - season, the price of Zhengzhou cotton has risen significantly. After reaching a high level, the short - term price volatility may increase. It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [9] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The price of US cotton futures continued to fluctuate. As of Friday, the closing price of the March contract was 64.48 cents/pound, up 0.47 cents/pound from the previous week, a 0.73% increase. The US cotton 3 - 5 spread was - 1.48 cents/pound, down 0.14 cents/pound from the previous week. Domestically, the price of Zhengzhou cotton rose first and then fell. The closing price of the May contract was 14,675 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous week, a 0.62% increase. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,930 yuan/ton, up 374 yuan/ton from the previous week. The basis was 1,234 yuan/ton, up 277 yuan/ton from the previous week. The Zhengzhou cotton 5 - 9 spread was - 185 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [9] - **Industry Information**: Brazil exported 450,000 tons of raw cotton in December, an increase of 100,000 tons year - on - year and 50,000 tons month - on - month. Among them, exports to China were 146,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons year - on - year and 40,000 tons month - on - month. As of the week ending January 1, the US current - year cotton export sales were 23,200 tons, with cumulative export sales of 1.5425 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 239,100 tons. Among them, exports to China were 3,200 tons that week, with cumulative exports of 71,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 83,900 tons. As of the week ending January 9, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.7%, unchanged from the previous week and 7.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.57 million tons, an increase of 290,000 tons year - on - year [9] - **Viewpoint and Strategy**: Wait for a callback and then go long [9][10][11] 2. Spread Trend Review - **Spot Price and Basis**: The report presents the trends of the China Cotton Price Index and the basis of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract through charts [25][26] - **Import Profit**: The report shows the trends of the 1% tariff internal - external price difference and the sliding - scale tariff internal - external price difference through charts [27][28] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Spread**: The report displays the trends of the Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 spread and the Zhengzhou cotton 5 - 9 spread through charts [29][30] - **Production - Sales Area Spread and Spinning Profit**: The report presents the trends of the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and the spinning mill's immediate profit through charts [31][32] - **Foreign Market Spread**: The report shows the trends of the US - Brazil spread and the FCindexM1% - CotlookA Index 1% tariff through charts [36][37] 3. Domestic Market Situation - **Domestic Cotton Production**: The report shows the trends of China's cotton processing and inspection quantity and Xinjiang's seed cotton purchase price through charts [40][41] - **Cotton Import Volume**: The report presents the trends of China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton import volumes through charts [42][43] - **US Export Contract Quantity to China**: The report shows the trends of the US cumulative and weekly export contract quantities to China through charts [44][45] - **Cotton Yarn Import Volume**: The report presents the trends of China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton yarn import volumes through charts [46][47] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The report shows the trends of the spinning mill and weaving mill operating rates through charts [49][50] - **National Sales Progress**: The report presents the trends of the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City through charts [52][53] - **Cotton Inventory**: The report shows the trends of China's weekly commercial cotton inventory and the monthly inventory of commercial + industrial through charts [54][55] - **Spinning Mill's Raw Material and Finished - Product Inventory**: The report presents the trends of the spinning mill's cotton inventory and yarn inventory through charts [56][57] 4. International Market Situation - **US Planting Situation**: The report shows the trends of the proportion of US cotton planting areas without drought and the US cotton good - quality rate through charts [60][61] - **US Production Situation**: The report presents the trends of the US cotton bi - weekly processing volume and cumulative processing volume through charts [62][63] - **US Yield and Planting Area**: The report shows the trends of the US cotton yield forecast and planting area through charts [64][66] - **US Export Contract Progress**: The report presents the trends of the US current - year cumulative and weekly export contract quantities through charts [68][69] - **US Export Shipment Volume**: The report shows the trends of the US annual cumulative and weekly export shipment volumes through charts [70][71] - **US Supply and Inventory - Consumption Ratio**: The report presents the trends of the US cotton supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio through charts [72] - **Brazil Yield and Planting Area**: The report shows the trends of Brazil's cotton planting area and yield through charts [73][74] - **Brazil Export Volume**: The report presents the trends of Brazil's cotton export volume forecast and monthly export volume through charts [76][77] - **Brazil Supply and Inventory - Consumption Ratio**: The report shows the trends of Brazil's cotton supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio through charts [79] - **India Yield and Planting Area**: The report presents the trends of India's cotton planting area and yield through charts [81][82] - **India Consumption and Import - Export**: The report shows the trends of India's cotton consumption, import and export volumes through charts [84][85] - **India Supply and Inventory - Consumption Ratio**: The report presents the trends of India's cotton supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio through charts [87]

Report Summary - **Report Title**: Zheng Cotton Soars and Then Declines, Planting Area Reduction Confirmed - Guoxin Futures Cotton Weekly Report - **Report Date**: January 9, 2026 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Domestic Market**: This week, Zheng Cotton soared and then declined. After the market's digestion of the reduced planting area reached its peak, the price of Zheng Cotton exceeded 15,000 yuan/ton. However, as the price rose, the pressure for long - position holders to take profits increased. After the policy expectations were realized, the market is expected to cool down and return to fundamentals. Due to the actual contraction in supply, the adjustment space for Zheng Cotton is expected to be limited, with an overall operating range of 14,400 - 15,200 yuan/ton [53]. - **International Market**: The international market was driven by the Chinese market, with prices soaring and then declining. Brazil's cumulative cotton exports in 2025 reached 3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 9%, hitting a record high. US cotton sales weakened again. The net increase in US cotton export sales in the current market year was 98,000 bales, a 27% decrease from the previous week and a 49% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The weak export data has a certain suppressing effect on the trend of US cotton. However, the high price difference between Chinese and US cotton may still support overall exports. In general, US cotton is still under short - term upward pressure and is expected to maintain a volatile trend [53]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis - **Futures Price**: Zheng Cotton soared and then declined this week, with a weekly increase of 0.62%. ICE cotton also soared and then declined, with a weekly increase of 0.58% [9]. - **Spot Price**: This week, the cotton price index rebounded. The 3128 index rose by 393 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index rose by 345 yuan/ton [14]. - **Import Situation**: In November, 120,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons. As of the second half of November, the commercial inventory of cotton was 4.6836 million tons, and the market entered an accelerated inventory accumulation stage [19][20]. - **Downstream Inventory**: In November, the yarn inventory was 26.33 days, a year - on - year decrease of 1.13 days. The grey fabric inventory was 32.34 days, a year - on - year increase of 0.69 days [28]. - **Yarn Price**: This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S yarn increased by 130 yuan/ton compared with last week, the price of C32S yarn increased by 160 yuan/ton, and the price of JC40S yarn increased by 150 yuan/ton [32]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: This week, the total number of Zheng Cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 198. The number of warehouse receipts was 7,189, and the number of effective forecasts was 2,248, totaling 9,437 [37]. - **Seed Cotton Acquisition**: No specific acquisition situation was described in detail, only the price data chart of Xinjiang seed cotton acquisition was presented [40][41]. - **US Cotton Exports**: As of January [the specific day is missing], the net sales of US upland cotton exports in the current year increased by 98,000 bales, and the net sales of exports in the next year were 22,500 bales [43]. - **US Weather**: The proportion of abnormally dry areas in the US was 22.8%, the proportion of moderately drought - affected areas was 24.4%, the proportion of severely drought - affected areas was 11.6%, the proportion of extremely drought - affected areas was 1.6%, and the proportion of exceptionally drought - affected areas was 0.1%. The total area in drought (D1 - D4) was 37.5% [50]. 3.2后市展望 - The domestic market is expected to cool down after the policy expectations are realized and return to fundamentals, with limited adjustment space for Zheng Cotton. - The international market is affected by China. The high export volume of Brazilian cotton and the weak export data of US cotton co - exist. US cotton is under short - term upward pressure and is expected to maintain a volatile trend [53].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic cotton prices are expected to experience fluctuations and rise in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by cost support, improved demand expectations, and reduced supply pressure [3][17]. Group 1: Price Trends - In the fourth quarter, the average price of China's 3128B grade cotton was 14,570.51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46% from the third quarter but an increase of 0.03% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 [4][18]. - The highest price reached 15,077 yuan/ton at the end of December, while the lowest was 14,188 yuan/ton at the beginning of October, with a price difference of 889 yuan/ton [4][18]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The sales progress of new cotton is rapid, with cotton spinning enterprises showing strong demand and ginning factories selling cotton actively, leading to a decrease in market selling pressure [6][20]. - Following the U.S.-China trade meeting on October 30, the cancellation of certain tariffs has improved the foreign trade environment, resulting in increased operating rates for cotton spinning enterprises [7][21]. Group 3: Future Price Expectations - In the first quarter of 2026, cotton prices may rise but are expected to face risks of retreat after reaching peaks due to increased cotton imports and a significant rise in commercial inventory levels [9][23]. - The total cotton production for the 2025/26 season is projected to reach 7.46 million tons, an increase of 11.34% year-on-year, with commercial inventory expected to rise to 671.66 million tons by the end of December [11][25]. Group 4: Demand Outlook - The demand side is expected to show limited performance in the first quarter, with low profit margins for textile enterprises and weak replenishment intentions ahead of the Spring Festival [13][27]. - The overall demand may remain subdued in February due to the holiday, with a potential recovery in March as the traditional demand season begins, contingent on downstream order follow-ups [13][27].

Price Index Overview - The China Cotton Price Index is reported at 15,711 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 96 yuan [1][4]. - The national weighted average price for cotton is 16,136 yuan for the highest grade, with a daily increase of 82 yuan [1][4]. Regional Price Breakdown - Prices vary significantly across different regions, with the highest price in Shandong at 16,350 yuan and the lowest in Xinjiang at 15,772 yuan [1][4]. - Specific regional prices include: - Anhui: 16,005 yuan - Guangdong: 16,100 yuan - Henan: 16,115 yuan - Jiangsu: 16,140 yuan - Sichuan: 16,054 yuan [1][4]. Daily Price Changes - Daily price changes show fluctuations across various grades, with notable increases in the 2,129B and 3,128B categories, reflecting a market trend [1][4]. - The daily changes for different grades are as follows: - 2,129B: +8 yuan - 3,128B: +7 yuan - 4,128B: +14 yuan - 1,228B: +94 yuan - 2,227B: +103 yuan [1][4].