Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core View The report predicts that after this round of rebound, cotton prices will gradually return to a volatile pattern. Although the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, the support is limited. The global supply - demand pattern is weak, with low demand. In the domestic market, the positive macro - environment and short - term spot resource shortage support the market, and downstream rigid demand persists. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton was reported at 63.82 - 64.85 cents per pound, with a Friday closing price of 63.93 cents per pound, a week - on - week decrease of 1.2%. As of November 28, the number of unpriced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2603 contract increased by 634 to 21,716, equivalent to an increase of 10,000 tons from last week. The total number of unpriced contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season increased by 1,001 to 39,293, equivalent to 890,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from last week. The total number of unpriced contracts of ICE sellers increased to 48,920, equivalent to 1.11 million tons, an increase of 1,482 (or 30,000 tons) from last week [9]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton**: It was reported at 13,660 - 13,820 yuan per ton, with a Friday closing price of 13,750 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan. As of December 5, the number of registered warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton was 2,709, and the number of forecast warehouse receipts was 2,781, totaling 5,490, equivalent to 230,580 tons [10]. - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The price center of domestic cotton spot prices moved slightly upward and then fluctuated in a narrow range this week. The one - time price of cotton spot increased, and the sales basis of cotton spot weakened. The one - time price of 2025/26 southern Xinjiang hand - picked cotton and northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was mostly quoted at around 14,800 - 14,950 yuan per ton (gross weight), and the actual transaction was slightly discounted. [13][16] 3.2 Domestic Cotton Market - **Supply**: The China Cotton Association predicts that the total cotton output in the 2025/26 season will reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, the highest since 2013. The Xinjiang cotton region is expected to produce about 6.911 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 95.8% of the national total. In October 2025, 90,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 15,800 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 5,000 tons. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import was 770,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67.4% (or 1.595 million tons). The cumulative import in the 2025/26 season was 185,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17% (or 38,000 tons) [19][26]. - **Demand**: The demand performance is average but still shows resilience, and the operating rate remains flat [29][35]. - **Profit**: The processing profit of ginning mills this week was 722 - 762 yuan per ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills was - 1,099.6 - - 1,053.4 yuan per ton [38]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of December 8, the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.465 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 285,600 tons, higher than the same period last year by 14,680 tons. At the end of October, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 874,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 42,200 tons [44]. 3.3 International Market - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand**: According to the latest November global cotton production and sales forecast by USDA, the global output was 26.145 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 523,000 tons, mainly due to the output adjustments in China and the US. The demand increased slightly to 25.883 million tons, showing an overall bearish trend [46].

南华期货棉花棉纱周报 ——棉价震荡波动，关注上方压力 2025/12/5 陈嘉宁（投资咨询证号：Z0020097 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 * 近端交易逻辑 当前新棉加速上市，但下游存在韧性，虽处于传统淡季时期，但部分板块订单情况良好且纱厂保持一定利 润，在新棉最终产量未有超预期上调下，棉价下方空间有限，关注13800附近套保压力突破情况。 . .. 中国棉花采摘进度季节性 source： 国家棉花市场监测系统,南华研究 % 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 09/15 09/29 10/13 10/27 11/10 11/24 12/08 12/22 0 25 50 75 100 中国棉花交售进度季节性 source： 国家棉花市场监测系统,南华研究 % 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 11/01 01/01 03/01 05/01 0 25 50 75 100 中国纯棉纱厂负荷季节性 中国全棉坯布负荷季节性 截至2025年12月4日，全国新年度棉花公证检验量累计464.36万吨，近日疆棉平均日度公检 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 03 日 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 国内棉花现货概况：根据 TTEB 信息显示，棉花现货交投依旧淡，有部分套保成交。现货主流基差变 化不大，部分高基差货源略有下调，一口价报价稳中略有上涨。2025/26 北疆机采 4129/29B 杂 3.5 内主 流销售基差多在 CF01+900 及以上，31 级同品质同报价本周有所增加，不含淡点污，疆内自提；2025/26 南北疆机采 3129/29-30B 杂 3 内较多报价基差在 CF01+1400-1600，内地自提。 国内棉纺织企业概况：根据 TTEB 信息显示，纯棉纱价格局部上调 100-200，实际成交暂时未有明显 跟进。为缓解利润压力，部分大型纺企上调纱价。品类方面，近期用于高端面料的高支、精梳纱订单相对 稳定，其他品类交投偏淡。 美棉概况：昨日 ICE 棉花期货小幅波动，受降息预期影响整体金融市场风险偏好较好，逢低买盘继续 支撑 ICE 棉花。 【趋势强度】 棉花：供需双强 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数 ...

光期研究 见微知著 棉花策略月报 2025 年 1 2 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 棉花：在质疑中前行 p 2 棉花：在质疑中前行 总 结 供应端：2025/26年度全球棉花产量同比增加，当前仍是北半球棉花供应压力高峰期，且仍将持续一段时间，上方压力不容忽视。 1、USDA11月报预计，2025/26年度全球棉花产量预计值为2614.5万吨，环比增加52.3万吨，同比增加0.7%。其中美国棉花产量预计为307.4万吨，环比调增19.6万吨；巴 西棉花产量408.9万吨，环比调增10.9万吨；中国棉花产量预计值为729.4万吨，环比调增21.8万吨。2、当前国内棉花采摘、交售已经基本结束。据同花顺数据，截至11 月20日，新棉加工量为463.1万吨，同比增加140万吨，新棉加工率64.2%，同比增加4.3%。3、截至11月27日，全国棉花公检量404.89万吨，较去年同比增加53.94万吨， 其中新疆地区公检量398.38万吨。 需求端：下游新疆地区纺织企业利润较好，开机稳定，10月服装鞋帽、针、纺织品零售额 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 谢威 从业资格证号：F03087820 投资咨询证号：Z0019508 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PARTONE 主要观点及策略概述 棉花：需求阶段性改善，关注供应端潜在利多 【棉花（CF)】 需求阶段性改善，关注供应端潜在利多 国贸期货农产品研究中心 2025-12-01 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | 目前仍处于新棉加工检验集中上量期间，预计持续至四季度末，新棉集中上市对现货的卖压还在持续。市场预期明年1-2月中央一号文件将下调未来三年的 棉花目标直补价格，明年3月国内外种植意向面积也有调降可能，4月是国内产区天气季节性炒作窗口，金三银四是传统需求旺季。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 目前下游纱厂原料库存偏低，补库意愿较为积极，同时在当前期现估值偏低的大背景下，四季度末至明年一季度初的春节前，季节性节前补 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花周报（11.24-11.28） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾： 本周棉花继续震荡上行，短期走出反弹新高。 ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA11月报：25/26年度产量2614.5 万吨，消费2588.3万吨，期末库存1653.2万吨。海关：10月纺织品服装出口222.62亿美元， 同比下降12.63%。10月份我国棉花进口9万吨，同比减少15.6%；棉纱进口14万吨，同比增加 16.7%。农村部11月25/26年度：产量660万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库存845万 吨。 对美出口关税降低10%，国内新棉采摘基 ...

缺少强驱动， 单边上涨概率不高 棉花周报 2025/11/29 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 国内市场情况 02 价差走势回顾 04 国际市场情况 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 市场回顾：外盘方面，本周美棉花期货价格小幅反弹，截至周五美棉花期货3月合约收盘价报64.73美分/磅，较之前一周上涨0.8美分/磅， 涨幅1.25%。价差方面，美棉3-5月差震荡，报-1.24美分/磅，较之前一周下跌0.02美分/磅。国内方面，本周郑棉价格延续震荡，截至周五 郑棉1月合约收盘价报13725元/吨，较之前一周上涨265元/吨，涨幅1.97%。中国棉花价格指数(CCIndex)3128B报14896元/吨，较之前一周上 涨105元/吨。基差走弱，报1189元/吨，较之前一周下跌132元/吨。郑棉1-5月差震荡，报40元/吨，较之前一周上涨25元/吨。 ◆ 行业信息：据Mysteel最新公布的数据显示，截至11月28日当周，纺纱厂开机率为 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract 2601 rose, with a weekly increase of about 1.97%. The domestic cotton market has a loose supply - demand situation. The new cotton purchase is almost over, but the sales of new flowers are slow, and the port inventory remains high. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, with fewer new orders for textile enterprises and a slow - down in the shipment of cotton yarn [5]. - Future trading should focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory levels. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract 2601 rose, with a weekly increase of about 1.97% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, the new cotton purchase is near the end, and the cost is fixed with the price of seed cotton. However, the sales of new flowers are significantly slow, and the market digestion is slower than expected. The port inventory remains high. As of November 27, the inventory of imported cotton in major ports increased by 1.28% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 380,300 tons. The shipment in RMB is limited, with more imports than exports and light market trading. On the demand side, the downstream demand has not improved significantly. Textile enterprises have significantly fewer new orders, the shipment of cotton yarn has slowed down, and the overall market transaction atmosphere is weak. The current loose supply - demand situation continues. In the future, attention should be paid to whether the actual restocking willingness improves and macro - dynamics [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: As of October 7, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 70,902 lots, a decrease of 1,689 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 129,324 lots, an increase of 6,748 lots from the previous week; the net short position was 58,422 lots, an increase of 8,437 lots from the previous week. The price of the US cotton March contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 1.06% [8][11]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: For the week ending October 9, US current - year cotton export sales increased by 157,600 bales net, a decrease of 21% from the previous week and an increase of 1% from the average of the previous four weeks. The current international cotton spot price is 74.5 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.15 cents per pound from last week [15]. - **Futures Market**: The price of Zhengzhou cotton contract 2601 rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 1.97%. The cotton yarn futures contract 2601 increased by about 1.85%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 123,629 lots, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 764 lots. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,408, and that of cotton yarn futures was 14 [20][26][30]. - **Spot Market**: As of November 28, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,896 yuan per ton. The national purchase price of seed cotton 3128B was 3.15 yuan per 500 grams, and that in Xinjiang was 3.42 yuan per 500 grams. The price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,660 yuan per ton, CY index: OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 14,700 yuan per ton, and CY index: OEC10s (combed yarn) was 23,670 yuan per ton [39][42][54]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of November 27, the sliding - scale duty price of imported cotton was 13,895 yuan per ton, an increase of 52 yuan per ton from last week; the quota price of imported cotton was 12,866 yuan per ton, an increase of 82 yuan per ton from last week. As of November 26, the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C21S was 19,987 yuan per ton; C32S was 21,097 yuan per ton; JC32S was 22,870 yuan per ton [58]. - **Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit**: As of November 27, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 987 yuan per ton, an increase of 39 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,940 yuan per ton, an increase of 9 yuan per ton from last week [61]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: - **Commercial Cotton Inventory**: At the end of October, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.9306 million tons, an increase of 1.9089 million tons from the previous month, a growth rate of 186.84%, and 43,400 tons higher than the same period last year. As of the end of October, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 888,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 61,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 42,700 tons [64]. - **Imported Cotton Quantity**: In October 2025, China's total cotton imports were about 90,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons or 15.6%. In October 2025, China imported 140,000 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [70]. - **Demand Side**: - **Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory**: As of October 15, 2025, the yarn inventory days were 25.24 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.57%; the grey cloth inventory days were 31.43 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.00% [73]. - **Textile and Garment Exports**: In October 2025, China's textile and garment exports were 22.26 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.8%. Among them, textile exports were 11.258 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 9.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.9%; garment exports were 11 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 16.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.6% [78]. - **Domestic Garment Retail Sales**: As of October 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing were 864.54 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 13.90%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of clothing retail sales was 2.9%, a month - on - month increase of 20.83% [82]. 3.4 Options and Stock - related Markets - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week is presented in the relevant chart, but no specific data analysis is provided [83]. - **Stock Market**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. is shown in the chart, but no specific data analysis is provided [86].

| | | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | 二、国际市场 | | 3 | | | | 三、美国 4 | | 四、其他国家 | | 4 | | 五、国内市场 | | 6 | | 第三部分 | | 后市展望及策略推荐 9 | | | | 免责声明 10 | 棉系板块研发报告 棉系 12 月报 2025 年 11 月 28 基本面矛盾不大 棉价区间震荡 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 11 月棉花期货价格区间震荡为主，供应端随着新棉收购基本进入尾声， 收购成本区域固化，目前普遍收购价格在 6.1-6.4 元/公斤；需求端下游整 体订单表现一般，对盘面提振有限。 10 月美棉基本面变化不大，预计整体走势仍然以区间震荡为主。 【市场展望】 基本面方面，随着新花开始大量上市，供应端预计维持宽松局面，近期 盘面有所上涨，考虑到当前盘面价格接近收购成本，市场可能会有一定的卖 套保压力。需求端来看， ...

郑棉：多空交织下还能再涨吗 弘业期货农产品研究团队 2025/11/28 王晓蓓 从业资格号:F0272777 投资咨询证号：Z0010085 郑棉：多空交织下还能再涨吗 核心观点 市场对增产仍有预期，较高成本皮棉等待套保机会，较低成本皮棉可顺价出售，郑棉套保压力不集中， 不过仍有套保压力；下游需求一般，产成品累库不过整体库存压力不大。现货皮棉基差坚挺、年底下游补 库预期支撑；上方有增产及套保压力，市场暂缺新驱动，预期郑棉短期内维持震荡；长期来看或有上涨机 会。 关注：宏观、需求、政策 美棉销售进度偏慢，中国签约量少 美农周度出口报告显示，截止10月9日当周，2025/26年度美棉总签售量为106.55万吨，占年度预测总出 口量的41%，同比偏慢9个百分点，较过去三年同期均值偏慢15个百分点；累计出口装运量为31.85万吨，占 年度总签约量的30%，较去年同期偏快6个百分点，是近四年同期最快。其中，中国对本年度美棉的签约量仅 有2.8万吨。 国内新棉销售同比偏快 截至11月25日，全国新棉检验量为386.9万吨，同比增加15.88%。 郑棉：多空交织下还能再涨吗 据国家棉花市场监测调查数据显示，截至2025年 ...