Core Viewpoint - The cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to increase in 2025, leading to a significant rise in total cotton production, despite cautious purchasing attitudes from ginning enterprises due to macroeconomic fluctuations and tariff issues [1][2][5]. Group 1: Cotton Production and Growth - In 2025, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is projected to increase by 8.68% year-on-year, primarily due to poor earnings from other crops in 2024 and the stability of cotton subsidies [2]. - The overall weather conditions in Xinjiang have been favorable, resulting in improved yield expectations, with a preliminary estimate of total cotton production reaching 7.1 million tons in 2024, an increase of approximately 11.29% year-on-year [2]. - The harvesting time for cotton in both northern and southern Xinjiang is expected to be 7-10 days earlier than last year, with some areas starting to harvest by September 20 [4][10]. Group 2: Market Pricing and Expectations - The expected opening price for cotton in Xinjiang for 2025 is projected to be between 6.1-6.5 yuan per kilogram, with a significant portion of market participants anticipating this range [5][10]. - A comparison of survey results from July and August indicates a shift in market sentiment, with participants now expecting lower opening prices due to tariff pressures and increased production expectations [7]. - The survey revealed that 33% of participants expect the opening price to be in the 6.1-6.5 yuan range, while 21% remain uncertain, and smaller percentages expect prices of 5.6-6.0 yuan and 6.6-7.0 yuan [5]. Group 3: Ginning Enterprises and Cost Management - Ginning enterprises are adopting a cautious approach due to poor profitability over the past three years, leading to a decline in rental fees for production lines [8]. - To mitigate potential losses, some ginning enterprises are pre-selling cotton in a basis spot format to lock in profits, while trade companies are also securing pre-purchases to capitalize on limited resources [8]. - The estimated production cost for cotton in 2025 is projected to be between 13,900-15,100 yuan per ton, which is relatively stable compared to previous years, although the opening price for cotton seeds is expected to be slightly higher than last year [8][9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The cotton market is in an oscillating upward phase, and the price center is expected to rise in the later stage. In the short term, the macro - sentiment is improving, demand is seasonally picking up, and social inventory is continuously decreasing, providing phased support. In the medium to long term, the global cotton supply - demand pattern is improving, domestic production may remain high, demand is expected to recover, and the supply - demand situation is also expected to improve. Therefore, the short - term cotton price is supported, and the medium - to - long - term center is expected to move up. It is recommended to be long after adjustments [6]. Summary by Directory Domestic Supply and Demand - **Supply - demand balance**: From 2021/22, due to the macro - economic downturn and the pandemic, cotton consumption was affected, while production remained high, leading to inventory accumulation and a downward price center. In 2024/25, production was high, imports decreased, and demand was relatively stable. In 2025/26, production is expected to be high, demand may recover, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve. According to the August data of the Cotton Information Network, in 2025/26, production is expected to be high, consumption will slightly decrease, imports will recover, and the ending inventory will increase [12]. - **New cotton growth**: In 2024, the cotton planting area decreased slightly, but the yield per unit was good, and the national output reached a recent high. In 2025, the intended planting area increased, the weather in the producing areas was generally good, and the new cotton growth was generally in good condition. Some hand - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang has started to be harvested. Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [18]. - **Inventory situation**: The market is in a de - stocking period, and the commercial inventory has significantly decreased. However, the industrial inventory has remained at a high level, and the overall industrial and commercial inventory is not low. There are concerns about potential tightness in the phased structural supply. As of the end of July, the commercial inventory was 218.98 million tons, a decrease of 64 million tons from the previous month; the industrial inventory was 89.84 million tons, a decrease of 0.46 million tons from the previous month [24][27]. - **Import situation**: The domestic cotton production and sales have a gap, and imported cotton is needed to supplement the supply. In 2025, the sliding - scale tariff quota was issued. Recently, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has widened. In July 2025, the cotton import volume was 5 million tons, a 66.7% increase from the previous month and a 73.2% decrease from the same period last year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 52 million tons, a 74.2% decrease from the same period last year [34][37]. Downstream Demand - **Overall situation**: Overseas interest rate cuts are beneficial to demand, and the progress of China - US economic and trade consultations is expected to improve the foreign trade situation. Domestic policies are boosting the economy, and domestic demand is expected to gradually recover. However, recently, new orders for downstream gauze are insufficient, the operating load is still low, and the finished - product inventory is still at a high level year - on - year, indicating pressure in the industrial chain operation [42]. - **Export and retail data**: In July 2025, the export of textiles and clothing was 2.6766 billion US dollars, a 0.06% year - on - year decrease and a 2.01% month - on - month decrease. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export was 1.0041 billion US dollars, a 0.63% year - on - year increase. In July, the retail sales of clothing, hats, and knitted textiles were 980.1 billion yuan, a 1.8% year - on - year increase and a 24.63% month - on - month decrease. From January to July, the cumulative retail sales were 831.1 billion yuan, a 2.9% year - on - year increase [43][45]. Policy - Reserve Rotation - In 2023, the state reserve cotton rotation out started on July 31 and ended on November 14. The planned rotation out was 1.2121 million tons, the actual transaction was 0.8639 million tons, the transaction rate was 71.27%, and the average transaction price was 17,430.49 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the stabilizing effect of the state reserve cotton on the market [49]. Global Supply and Demand - **Global situation**: In the 2024/26 period, global cotton production is expected to increase, consumption will significantly recover, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will slightly rise. In 2025/26, global production is expected to decrease, demand will be stable, and the ending inventory will decrease. The new cotton in the Southern Hemisphere is in the harvest period with an optimistic yield expectation, while the major producers in the Northern Hemisphere are in the sowing and growing period. Some US cotton - producing areas are experiencing drought, and the sowing in India is behind schedule [58]. - **US situation**: In the 2024/25 period, the US cotton planting area increased, the harvest area increased significantly, but the yield per unit decreased due to drought, and production increased. In 2025/26, the planting area is expected to decrease, the yield per unit is expected to decline, but production is expected to recover. US textile and clothing demand has recovered, but future demand still needs to be tracked. The US cotton export sales progress is slow [59]. - **Other countries**: In the 2024/25 period, Brazil's cotton production is expected to increase to 3.938 million tons, a 7.2% year - on - year increase. As of August 30, 2025, India's cotton planting area in the 2025/26 period was 10.847 million hectares, a 2.9% year - on - year decrease [65]. Spread and Basis - The data on cotton spreads (such as 1 - 5, 9 - 1, 5 - 9 spreads) and basis (such as 01, 05, 09 basis) are provided, showing their historical trends and fluctuations [73][78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current downstream market consumption is still average during the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, and there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in the new domestic cotton season. However, the current domestic cotton inventory is at a historically low level, with both bullish and bearish factors intertwined. - In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton prices rose and then fell, facing significant selling pressure, and cotton prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review** - **External Market**: In August, the price of US cotton futures showed a weak oscillation. As of August 29, the closing price of the December contract of US cotton futures was 66.53 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.69 cents per pound from the previous month, a decline of 1.03%. The spread between the December and March contracts of US cotton weakened slightly, reaching - 1.9 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.52 cents per pound from the previous month. - **Domestic Market**: In August, the price of Zhengzhou cotton rose. As of August 29, the closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 14,240 yuan per ton, an increase of 400 yuan per ton from the previous month, a rise of 2.89%. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,328 yuan per ton, an increase of 3 yuan per ton from the previous month. The basis weakened, reaching 1,128 yuan per ton, a decrease of 453 yuan per ton from the previous month. The spread between the January and May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton decreased slightly, reaching 40 yuan per ton, a decrease of 25 yuan per ton from the previous month [9]. - **Industry Information** - As of the week of August 29, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.9%, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points from the same period last year; the weaving mill operating rate was 37.2%, a decrease of 8.4 percentage points from the same period last year; the weekly commercial cotton inventory was 1.55 million tons, a decrease of 360,000 tons from the same period last year. - At the end of August, the National Development and Reform Commission announced matters related to the electronic application for the processing trade import quota of preferential tariff rates outside the cotton tariff quota in 2025. The total volume of the sliding - scale duty processing trade quota for cotton imports in 2025 is 200,000 tons. - According to the August forecast data of the US Department of Agriculture, the global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season is 25.39 million tons, a decrease of 390,000 tons from the July forecast. Among them, the US production forecast was reduced by 300,000 tons to 2.88 million tons due to a 15% reduction in the planted area compared to the July forecast; the Chinese production forecast was increased by 110,000 tons to 6.86 million tons; the production forecasts of Brazil and India remained unchanged. The global consumption forecast was reduced by 30,000 tons to 25.69 million tons, and the ending inventory was reduced by 740,000 tons to 16.09 million tons. The US inventory - to - consumption ratio was reduced by 6.12 percentage points to 26.28% [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies** - Based on fundamental analysis, the short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels. The short - term assessment of various factors shows that the basis weakened slightly, the monthly spread oscillated, the spinning immediate profit remained inverted, and the marginal changes in the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and cost were not significant [9][10]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, US cotton contract spreads, and external market spreads, to show the historical trends and changes of these spreads [26][27][29]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation The report shows multiple charts related to the domestic cotton market, including domestic cotton production (processing and inspection quantity, processing volume), cotton import volume (monthly and annual cumulative), US export contract quantity to China,棉纱 import volume, downstream operating rates (spinning and weaving mills), national sales progress, cotton inventory (weekly commercial and monthly commercial + industrial), and spinning mill raw material and finished product inventories [38][40][42]. 3.4 International Market Situation - **CFTC Positions**: Charts of CFTC fund net positions and commercial net positions are presented [58]. - **US Situation**: The report shows the US cotton planting situation (proportion of non - drought - affected planting area, excellent - good rate), production situation (bi - weekly and cumulative processing volume), production and planting area forecasts, export contract progress, export shipment volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [60][62][64]. - **Brazil Situation**: Charts of Brazil's cotton planting area, production, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are presented [73][76]. - **India Situation**: The report shows India's cotton planting area, production, consumption, import and export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [81][84].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of accurate measurement in cotton purchasing in Urumqi City, Xinjiang, to ensure a fair and reliable market environment for farmers and cotton purchasing companies [1][2]. Group 1: Measurement and Regulation - Urumqi City Market Supervision Administration is enhancing the accuracy of measurement tools used in cotton purchasing by conducting inspections at various cotton processing companies [1]. - The inspection includes electronic vehicle scales, electronic scales, and electronic balances to improve measurement assurance and service levels during the cotton purchasing season [1]. - The head of the product quality and measurement testing department highlighted that measurement errors could lead to significant losses for farmers and purchasing companies [1]. Group 2: Farmer and Company Perspectives - A local farmer expressed confidence in the upcoming harvest due to government policies, including price and quality subsidies, and effective management practices [1][2]. - The head of a cotton processing company stated that the calibration of measurement tools provides assurance for both the company and farmers, promoting fair transactions [2]. - The Market Supervision Administration plans to continue its measurement supervision and enforcement efforts to protect farmers' rights and ensure compliance with measurement standards [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trading of domestic cotton spot is sluggish, with a shortage of high - quality spot inventory. Spinning mills only make purchases based on rigid demand, and most sales basis of cotton spot remain stable [2]. - The trading in the domestic pure - cotton yarn market is average. Downstream customers report insufficient new orders and mainly make rigid - demand purchases. Prices are generally stable, with most spinning mills holding firm on prices and some offering promotional discounts. The market is highly concerned about subsequent orders in September and the marginal changes in the downstream [2]. - The ICE cotton futures declined yesterday due to concerns about the listing pressure of new US cotton crops and the strengthening of the US dollar [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2601 closed at 14,045 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.14%, and its night - session closing price was the same as the previous day. The trading volume was 338,147 lots, a decrease of 347,135 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 710,163 lots, a decrease of 5,361 lots [1]. - CY2511 closed at 19,995 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decrease of 0.12%, and its night - session closing price was 20,020 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.13%. The trading volume was 9,362 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 24,498 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - ICE US cotton 12 closed at 66.05 cents/pound yesterday with a decrease of 0.72% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 6,131, a decrease of 189 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 0 [1]. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 60, an increase of 3 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 6, an increase of 54 from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,297 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.13%. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,993 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.13% [1]. - The price in Shandong was 15,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.45%. The price in Hebei was 15,412 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.28% [1]. - The 3128B index was 15,412 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.43%. The international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 74.16 cents/pound, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,780 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,766 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.15% [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF1 - 5 spread was 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Based on TTEB information, the overall trading of cotton spot is sluggish. High - quality spot inventory is scarce, and spinning mills only make rigid - demand purchases. Most sales basis of cotton spot remain stable. For example, the mainstream lower sales basis of 2024/25 Nanjiang Kashi machine - picked 3129/29B with impurities within 3.5 is in the range of CF01 + 1100 - 1200, and more sales basis are above CF01 + 1200, for inland self - pick - up. A small amount of 2024/25 Beijiang local machine - picked 4129/29 - 30B with impurities within 3 was traded at around CF01 + 1400 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: According to TTEB information, the trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is average. Downstream customers report insufficient new orders and mainly make rigid - demand purchases. Prices are generally stable, with most spinning mills holding firm on prices and some offering promotional discounts. The market is highly concerned about subsequent orders in September and the marginal changes in the downstream [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined yesterday due to concerns about the listing pressure of new US cotton crops and the strengthening of the US dollar [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, with the value range of trend intensity being an integer within the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [5].

目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年9月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC8月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA8月报：25/26年度产 量2539.2万吨，消费2568.8万吨，期末库存1609.3万吨。海关：7月纺织品服装出口267.7亿 美元，同比下降0.1%。7月份我国棉花进口5万吨，同比减少73.2%；棉纱进口11万吨，同比增 加15.38%。农村部8月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库存823 万吨。中性。 6：预期：金九银十旺季到来，市场分歧较大。考虑到刚进入旺季，哪怕短期订单不理想，毕 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the cotton industry is "oscillation", suggesting that the short - term demand is average and the supply is loose, with the market likely to fluctuate within a range [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the cotton market from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that the old - crop inventory shortage has been priced in, and the new - crop abundant harvest reality is being priced. The demand is neutral due to over - capacity in spinning and high operating rates. The inventory shows different trends in commercial and industrial aspects. The profit situation of spinning is poor, while the valuation is relatively low. Macro - policies have both positive and negative impacts. Overall, the market is expected to oscillate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish as the old - crop inventory shortage has been priced, and the new - crop abundant harvest weak reality is being priced [3]. - **Demand**: Neutral. Excess spinning capacity and high operating rates lead to strong industrial demand for cotton [3]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The national commercial inventory is depleting rapidly, while the national industrial inventory remains at a high level [3]. - **Base/Spread**: Neutral. This week, the Zhengzhou cotton basis maintained an oscillation, with the Xinjiang double 28 spot basis at 1000 - 1200, and the Zhengzhou cotton September - January spread continued to strengthen [3]. - **Profit**: Bearish. Xinjiang spinning has a slight loss, and inland spinning has a serious loss. The yarn - cotton spread is running at a low level [3]. - **Valuation**: Bullish. The current absolute price is at a relatively low level in the past four years [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. Domestically, the increasing domestic demand policies are beneficial for the long - term demand of domestic cotton, which is bullish for the far - month contracts. Internationally, the Sino - US trade negotiation is in a short - term deadlock, and the tariff exemption period is extended again, which is bearish in terms of sentiment [3]. - **Investment View**: Oscillation. The short - term demand is average, and the supply is in a loose pattern, so the market may fluctuate within a range [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For both unilateral and arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. Key risks to watch include domestic macro - policies, Sino - US trade policies, and downstream consumption [3]. PART TWO: Cotton Fundamental Data Upstream Planting - The cotton planting area is expected to increase. The first - time survey in 2025 shows that the national cotton planting area is 4159.9 million mu, and that in Xinjiang is 3678.8 million mu, with year - on - year increases of 1.88% and 3.18% respectively [8][9]. - The cotton yield per mu in 2025 is estimated to be 149.9 kg nationally and 158.5 kg in Xinjiang [10]. Mid - stream - **Inventory**: The finished - product inventory accumulation in mid - stream factories has slowed down. The inventory data of weaving mills and spinning mills are presented in the form of graphs [18]. - **Factory Load**: The operating rates of pure - cotton yarn mills and all - cotton grey fabric mills are declining [25]. - **Spinning Mill Profit**: Spinning mills are in a loss situation, as shown by the negative spinning immediate profit and low yarn - cotton spot spread [29]. Downstream - The downstream inventory is at a seasonal high, as reflected by the inventory data of textile and clothing enterprises above the designated size [34]. International Market - **US Cotton Exports**: The signing and shipment of US cotton exports are at the lowest level in the same period of history. Exports to different countries show different trends: exports to Pakistan are decreasing year - on - year and at a low level; exports to Vietnam have increased significantly year - on - year in terms of signing and shipment [41][50][56]. PART THREE: Cotton Capital - related Data - **Zhengzhou Cotton Basis**: It is oscillating at a high level. The basis of Zhengzhou cotton contracts 09 and 01 shows relevant trends [63]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Spread**: The September - January spread and January - May spread of Zhengzhou cotton are presented in the form of graphs [67]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Position**: The position of the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract is rapidly declining [69]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipt**: The virtual - to - real ratio of the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract is rapidly declining [74]. - **US Cotton Fund Position**: Data on the net long positions of management funds in US cotton futures and options, as well as the long - position ratios, are presented [82][84]. - **US Cotton Month Spread**: It shows a "Deep Contango" pattern [88].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton futures price has increased in volatility due to news [1] - The ICE cotton futures declined by about 1% last Friday, and concerns about the export prospects of US cotton continued to keep ICE cotton in a weak and volatile state [4] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of CF2601 yesterday was 14,240 yuan/ton, up 1.21%, and the night - session closing price was 14,015 yuan/ton, down 1.58%. The closing price of CY2511 yesterday was 20,140 yuan/ton, up 0.25%, and the night - session closing price was 19,960 yuan/ton, down 0.89%. The price of ICE US cotton 12 was 66.53 cents/pound, down 1.11%. The trading volume of CF2601 was 683,467 lots, an increase of 394,578 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 754,836 lots, an increase of 54,447 lots. The trading volume of CY2511 was 11,926 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 24,110 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. The number of Zhengzhou cotton warrants was 7,762, a decrease of 67, and the effective forecast was 249, unchanged. The number of cotton yarn warrants was 69, a decrease of 5, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 74 [2] - **Spot Data**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,487 yuan/ton, up 1.11%; the price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,183 yuan/ton, up 1.13%; the price in Shandong was 15,340 yuan/ton, down 0.12%; the price in Hebei was 15,308 yuan/ton, up 0.01%. The 3128B index was 15,328 yuan/ton, down 0.05%. The international cotton index M was 74.85 cents/pound, up 0.82%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 20,780 yuan/ton, up 0.10%, and the arrival price was 21,818 yuan/ton, down 0.21% [2] - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall trading of domestic cotton spot was sluggish, and the basis remained stable. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 north and south Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 was CF01 + 1150 - 1400. The freight of cotton out of Xinjiang by truck continued to rise slightly [3] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was average and slowed down compared with the previous period. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement. The C40S and low - count yarn varieties were the main ones, and the feedback on high - count yarn was average. Some large spinning mills raised prices, but there were few followers, and the overall cotton yarn price remained stable [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, and attention should be paid to the situation of new cotton crops [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2601 closed at 14,070 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.04%, and 14,270 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 1.42%. Its trading volume was 288,889 lots, an increase of 26,527 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 700,389 lots, a decrease of 8,588 lots [1]. - CY2511 closed at 20,090 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.05%, and 20,175 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.42%. Its trading volume was 6,502 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 22,701 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - ICE Cotton No. 12 closed at 67.28 cents/pound yesterday with an increase of 0.95% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 7,762, a decrease of 67 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 249, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 69, a decrease of 5 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 74 from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: - The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,317 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan from the previous day with a decline of 0.03% [1]. - The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,013 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The price in Shandong was 15,358 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan from the previous day with a decline of 0.10% [1]. - The price in Hebei was 15,306 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan from the previous day with an increase of 0.06% [1]. - The 3128B index was 15,336 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan from the previous day with a decline of 0.04% [1]. - The International Cotton Index: M: CNCottonM was 74.24 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.07 cents from the previous day with a decline of 0.09% [1]. - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,760 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,865 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan from the previous day with a decline of 0.15% [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF9 - 1 spread was - 295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall trading of domestic cotton spot was rather sluggish, with partial areas performing well, and the basis remained stable. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (3129/29 - 30B, impurity within 3.5) was CF01 + 1150 - 1400, and most of the Southern Xinjiang lint was quoted at 1150 - 1300 for inland self - pick - up. The 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang Corps machine - picked cotton (4129/29~30B, impurity within 3) was traded around CF09 + 1700 for in - Xinjiang self - pick - up [1][2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market slowed down. Spinning mills reported that orders were not as good as those in the middle of the month. The market mainly sold varieties of C40S and below, and the feedback on high - count yarn was average. Cotton yarn prices were mainly stable, and spinning mills had a certain willingness to hold prices, but high - priced transactions were difficult [1][2]. - **US Cotton**: Yesterday, ICE cotton futures rose slightly. After falling below 67 cents/pound again, commercial and technical buying pushed it to rebound. The weekly US cotton export sales data was still average. As of the week ending August 21, the net increase in US cotton export sales for the 25/26 season was 179,300 bales [1][2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, domestic cotton supply is tightening. With the arrival of the peak season and the possibility of a scramble for new cotton, Zhengzhou cotton futures may show a volatile and upward trend before the large - scale listing of new cotton. Medium - term, due to strong expectations of a bumper harvest in the new year, the futures market will face significant pressure during the centralized listing period. Attention should be paid to the actual demand during the peak season. If the peak - season demand fails to meet expectations, Zhengzhou cotton may still decline. Long - term, cotton prices are expected to be positive. After the seasonal pressure eases, it is advisable to look for opportunities to go long on dips [4]. Summary According to the Directory Tariff Policy Impact Analysis - On May 12, China and the US issued a joint statement in Geneva, canceling 91% of the mutually imposed tariffs. However, the overall tariff level on Chinese textiles in the US remains high, and there is still an additional 25% tariff on US cotton imported by China. The extension of the tariff truce for 90 days has a limited positive impact on export trade. The US - India trade friction also affects the cotton market. India's temporary cancellation of cotton import tariffs has limited positive effects due to the short time period [9][10][14]. International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Analysis Global - In August, the USDA significantly reduced the global cotton production and ending stocks for the 25/26 season in its supply - demand report, changing the supply - demand situation from loose to tight. However, this adjustment is controversial as it may not fully reflect the production potential of some countries and lacks strong support on the demand side [15]. United States - The NASS's August report shows a reduction in cotton planting and harvest areas in the US, with the 25/26 season's production dropping to 288 tons. Exports and ending stocks are also down, improving the supply - demand outlook. But some market participants think the adjustment may be too radical, and the reduction in supply needs further observation [18][19]. Brazil - The USDA predicts that Brazil's new - season cotton production will increase by 27 tons to 397 tons, with export expectations exceeding 3 million tons. Brazil has replaced the US as the world's largest cotton exporter, and its increasing production will further pressure US cotton [27][29]. India - For the 24/25 season, different institutions have different estimates of India's cotton production. For the 25/26 season, the USDA reduced India's consumption and increased ending stocks. Currently, India's new - cotton sowing progress is slower than usual, and there are uncertainties in the final planting area and output [32]. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand Analysis USDA - In August, the USDA increased China's new - season cotton production and consumption while reducing imports and ending stocks. However, it may still underestimate China's cotton production [35]. BCO - The Cotton Information Network continued to lower China's ending stocks. For the 24/25 season, production remained stable, imports decreased, and consumption increased. For the 25/26 season, production increased, imports decreased, and consumption remained stable, with ending stocks also decreasing [38]. Production - Domestic institutions' estimates of China's total cotton production are around 6.9 million tons, but the market expects a higher output, especially in Xinjiang, where a bumper harvest is likely [41]. Import - Due to limited additional import quotas and high domestic production, China's cotton imports have been low. The recent issuance of 200,000 tons of sliding - scale duty import quotas is unlikely to ease the short - term supply shortage in Xinjiang [44]. Inventory - China's domestic cotton commercial inventory has been decreasing rapidly and is at a historically low level, which strongly supports domestic cotton prices [46]. Textile Industry Chain - Since August, the demand side has improved marginally, but the improvement is limited. The peak - season demand may not be strong. Yarn mills' sales have improved slightly, but profits are still poor. Weaving mills' orders have increased slightly, and their raw - material procurement enthusiasm is limited [52]. Future Cotton Market Outlook ICE US Cotton - The new US tariffs are not conducive to global textile trade. India's temporary cancellation of cotton import tariffs has limited positive effects. The USDA's adjustment of the supply - demand situation is beneficial to cotton prices, but the reduction in production needs further verification. In the short term, ICE US cotton may be trapped in the 65 - 70 cent trading range. In the medium - to long - term, attention should be paid to the realization of the production - reduction expectation [60]. Domestic Zhengzhou Cotton - The "anti - involution" in China has ended, and the tariff truce has been extended for 90 days, but macro risks remain. The short - term supply shortage persists, and the peak - season demand improvement provides support for cotton prices. However, the large - scale listing of new cotton may bring hedging pressure. In the medium - to long - term, attention should be paid to tariff policies and the realization of the domestic production - increase expectation [61].