Macro News - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum announced significant financial opening measures, including the establishment of an interbank market trading report library, a digital RMB international operation center, and a personal credit agency [1] - The head of the Financial Regulatory Bureau stated that efforts are underway to promote pilot projects for financial asset investment companies and technology enterprise merger loans, along with a joint action plan with the Shanghai government to support the construction of an international financial center [1] - The chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the role of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board as a "testing ground," introducing a growth tier and restarting the listing standards for unprofitable companies [1] - The deputy governor of the People's Bank of China announced the upcoming release of additional investment quotas for qualified domestic institutional investors and a package of foreign exchange innovation policies in free trade pilot zones [1] Industry News - The Central Financial Committee issued opinions to accelerate the construction of the Shanghai International Financial Center, aiming for a comprehensive enhancement of its capabilities and competitiveness over the next five to ten years [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has developed opinions to enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, including the reintroduction of listing standards for unprofitable companies [3] Cross-Border Payment - The RMB Cross-Border Payment System (CIPS) held a signing ceremony with six foreign institutions, marking the first direct participation of foreign entities from Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Singapore in CIPS [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 美国通胀低于预期，国内出口存韧性 郑建鑫 从业资格证号：F3014717 投资咨询证号：Z0013223 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点 宏观：美国通胀低于预期，国内出口存韧性 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-06-16 | 影响因素 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 本周国内大宗商品继续反弹，其中，工业品多数回升，农产品大幅走高。主因是以色列和伊朗爆发大规模冲突，中东局势明显升级，国际油价大幅反弹，带动国际 | | | 大宗商品纷纷反弹。此外，中美达成框架协议、中国经济保持韧性（进出口、社融等）、美国通胀低于预期提振降息预期等，也都有助于改善市场的风险偏好。 | | 海外 | 1）中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦成功举行，双方就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致，就解决双方 | | | 彼此经贸关切取得新进展。2）美国劳工统计局公布5月CPI数据全线低于预期，总体CPI同比上涨2. ...

【环球时报报道 记者 肖震冬】第51届七国集团（G7）峰会于当地时间15日至17日在加拿大艾伯塔省卡 纳纳斯基斯举行。在美国总统特朗普再度返回G7峰会时，"他已经带领全球经济经历了一场过山车式的 起伏"，彭博社13日报道称，而这一次，美国关税政策在国内外遭遇了日益增长的反对，"再次深刻地提 醒人们贸易战的高昂代价"。 同时，美国政府的关税政策也在挑战其作为多数国家主要经济伙伴的角色，及对全球经济议程的影响 力。彭博社的研究模型显示，美国关税政策可能使其在全球贸易中的份额从22%降至16%。这在亚洲市 场尤为明显，当前中国已是该地区多数国家最大贸易伙伴。原TPP成员国（亚太地区）对华贸易占比 23%，对美贸易仅占13%，关税政策可能将美国份额压至11%。 特朗普退出TPP的后果在8年后的今天仍然体现在盟友态度的转变上。 特朗普的关税也打击了许多美国 盟友的经济。随着出口下滑，加拿大等贸易伙伴正面临陷入衰退的可能性。日本和德国标志性的汽车行 业也面临着生存威胁。目前有三个G7成员（加拿大、日本和英国）已加入TPP的"继承者"《全面与进步 跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（CPTPP）。报道援引日本内阁府前高级经济学家川崎健 ...

【重点关注】 ·人民银行：5月末广义货币（M2)余额325.78万亿元同比增长7.9% ·中土（耳其）两国央行续签双边本币互换协议并签署在土耳其建立人民币清算安排的合作备忘录 ·市场监管总局：对不履行召回责任的电子商务经营者依法责令召回并加大处罚力度 【国内要闻】 ·人民银行数据显示，5月末，广义货币（M2)余额325.78万亿元，同比增长7.9%。狭义货币（M1)余额 108.91万亿元，同比增长2.3%。流通中货币（M0)余额13.13万亿元，同比增长12.1%。前五个月净投放 现金3064亿元。 ·工信部13日公布2025年1－4月全国锂离子电池行业运行情况。数据显示，2025年1－4月，我国锂离子 电池（下称"锂电池"）产业延续增长态势。根据锂电池行业规范公告企业信息和行业协会测算，1－4月 全国锂电池总产量超过473GWh，同比增长68%。 ·工业和信息化部等八部门公开征求对《汽车数据出境安全指引（2025版）》的意见，汽车数据处理者 向境外提供汽车数据，符合以下情形之一的，应当申报数据出境安全评估：（1）向境外提供重要数 据；（2）自当年1月1日起累计向境外提供100万人以上个人信息（不含敏感个人 ...

据央视新闻报道，当地时间6月12日获悉，美国商务部宣布将 自6月23日起对多种钢制家用电 器加征关税，包括洗碗机、洗衣机和冰箱等"钢铁衍生产品"。 据悉， 对大多数国家设定50%的关税将影响这些钢铁制品的进口，可能导致消费价格上涨， 行业利益相关者正在密切关注事态发展。 来源丨央视新闻 本期编辑 黎雨桐 哪吒汽车通知：居家办公！办公室门禁已失效，董事长兼CEO被围堵讨薪 秒空！预约票溢价50000倍！百万天价Labubu"旧主"：30多万卖出，不后悔 飞天茅台持续跳水！单瓶跌破2000元 SFC 21君荐读 ...

Group 1 - China has approved a certain quantity of rare earth product export applications, indicating a shift in policy after previously imposing export restrictions [1][3] - The export restrictions on seven categories of medium and heavy rare earth elements have significant implications for various industries, including automotive, semiconductors, and military hardware [1][3] - The slow progress in issuing export licenses has led to a sharp decline in global rare earth supply, affecting multiple sectors [1][3] Group 2 - The Chinese government emphasizes that the export control of rare earths is a common international practice aimed at safeguarding national security and interests [3][4] - The recent approval of some export applications is seen as a strategic move to balance pressure from the U.S. while maintaining China's dominant position in the rare earth market [3][4] - The U.S. military could face significant production challenges if China were to completely cut off rare earth exports, highlighting the strategic importance of these materials [3][4] Group 3 - Trump's recent welcoming of Chinese students to the U.S. marks a significant shift from previous policies that were more restrictive, reflecting a potential change in U.S.-China relations [6][7] - The U.S. economy may benefit from the presence of Chinese students, who contribute to consumption and talent in various fields, despite concerns over technology transfer [6][7] - The fluctuating U.S. policy on Chinese students indicates a complex interplay between competition and cooperation in the context of U.S.-China economic relations [6][7] Group 4 - The long-term outlook suggests that both countries will continue to experience a mix of cooperation and competition across economic, technological, and educational domains [9] - China is encouraged to enhance resource management and improve domestic education quality to attract talent, while also maintaining a strategic stance in trade negotiations [9] - The evolving U.S.-China relationship will have significant implications for the global political and economic landscape, necessitating ongoing dialogue and cooperation [9]

Group 1 - Investment in high-tech industries has been surpassed by overall manufacturing investment for the first time, indicating a shift in trends after three years of low returns on investments [1][3][4] - Many sectors, including new energy and semiconductors, are showing signs of overcapacity, with rapid technological iterations leading to outdated "new" technologies [3][4] - Private investments focused on financial returns have lagged behind state-owned enterprises, highlighting a disparity in investment strategies [4] Group 2 - Corporate profits are finally showing signs of recovery, with many sectors experiencing profit rebounds, although the automotive industry continues to struggle [5][9] - The gap between fixed asset investment in manufacturing and overall profits is narrowing, suggesting a potential shift towards prioritizing shareholder returns [9][11] - Regulatory pressures in the automotive sector and tightening capital constraints are contributing to a more sustainable investment environment [11] Group 3 - The growth rate of high-tech service industries remains strong, outperforming the manufacturing sector [14] - Consumer spending on services is lagging behind goods due to supply constraints and a lack of quality offerings, impacting overall consumption patterns [17][19] - New consumption trends, particularly those with emotional and differentiated attributes, are gaining traction, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [21]

6月8日周日《新闻联播》要闻21条 智通财经6月8日电，今天《新闻联播》主要内容有： 17、美航天工业协会称美加征关税将损害美民航产业： （1）美联储系统高管称美关税政策或致通胀率 持续居高； （2）墨西哥行业协会称美关税政策破坏北美汽车供应链稳定； 2、许其亮同志遗体在京火化； 3、【锲而不舍落实中央八项规定精神】各地一体推进学查改 确保学习教育成果可感可及； 4、"两新"下乡进村 激活农村市场消费新活力； 5、我国构建起冷链物流"四横四纵"骨干通道网络； 6、因地制宜 建设美丽海湾； 7、【真抓实干 打开改革发展新天地】江西加快构建现代化产业体系； 8、【一线调研】一家小微企业的"夺冠"密码； 9、第一批全国零售业创新提升试点城市名单发布； 10、各地加快制修订住宅项目地方标准； 11、《2025中国海洋经济发展指数》今天发布； 12、中国进出口银行前5个月投放外贸领域贷款4600亿元； 13、渤海最大油气平台完成海上浮托安装； 14、新疆奇台射电望远镜项目中心塔混凝土浇筑完成； 15、俄称抵达顿涅茨克西部边界并继续推进 乌称在多方向击退俄进攻 俄乌换俘计划生变 双方各执一 词； 16、伊朗称获得大量以色 ...

财经杂志 . 文/中国社科院世经政所博士后 谢慧敏、 中国社科院世经政所研究员 杨盼 盼 、中国社科院世经政所研究员 徐奇渊 4月以来，特朗普政府的关税政策经历了剧烈波动与多次重大调整。 特 别 是 针 对 中 国 ， 美 国 先 是 施 加 " 对 等 关 税 " ， 随 后 又 多 次 提 升 关 税 ， 最 终 将 税 率 加 征 至 14 5% ， 这 可 被 视 为 一 次 极 限 关 税 的 压 力 测 试。 在如此高的关税下，4月中国对美出口同比下降21.3%，下降幅度显 著低于此前各类模拟测算的结果。其原因何在？可持续性如何？本 文尝试基于美国进口商提单层面的微观数据做逐一回答。 以下文章来源于财经杂志 ，作者谢慧敏 等 《财经》杂志官方微信。《财经》杂志由中国证券市场研究中心主办，1998年创刊，秉承"独立、独 家、独到"的新闻理念，以权威性、公正性、专业性报道见长，是政经学界决策者、研究者、管理者的 必读刊物。 抢进口在"对等关税"早期发挥作用 基于Panjiva数据，4月15日-5月13日，美国从中国海运进口货值同比下降15.5%，这与中国海关总 署公布的4月中国对美出口下降约21%较为 ...

Domestic News - The Chinese government aims to improve water efficiency, with the water consumption per ten thousand GDP decreasing by 4.4% in 2024 compared to 2023 [1] - The Ministry of Water Resources reported a slight increase in total water consumption nationwide, while unconventional water supply continues to rise, optimizing the water source structure [1] - The State Council is advancing legislative work for 2025, focusing on various financial regulations and management guidelines [2] - China has established the world's largest internet-based electricity service system, with over 400 million registered users and an online processing rate exceeding 97% [2] - In the first five months of this year, China approved 468 new national standard substances, marking a 65.9% year-on-year increase [2] - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported a warehouse index of 50.5% for May, indicating stable growth in the warehousing sector [3] - Chongqing has released a list of 42 low-altitude economic application scenarios and 40 capability lists, focusing on modern urban governance and low-altitude logistics [3] - Zhengzhou is enhancing consumer subsidies in key sectors like automobiles and home appliances, launching a gold and jewelry consumption subsidy program [3] International News - Emerging markets have seen record inflows of funds into stocks and bonds over the past eight weeks, with nearly $95 billion in cash inflows in the latest week [5] - The Bank of Thailand has revised its inflation forecast for the year to a range of 0.0% to 1.0% [5] - The Reserve Bank of India unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points, marking the third consecutive rate cut, with a total reduction of 100 basis points since 2025 [5] - The Swiss National Bank stated it does not aim to prevent trade balance adjustments or gain unfair competitive advantages for the Swiss economy [5]