1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic growth is slowing down, with drags from the real estate sector, weakening consumption support, and declining investment growth. However, policy - side counter - cyclical adjustments have been implemented, and the stock market remains strong while the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed has started a "preventive降息周期" [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the upward risk of the US dollar may be higher than the downward risk. The exchange rate may oscillate around 7.10 in the short - term, and policy signals from the RMB central parity rate should be focused on [4]. - The stock index is expected to be volatile in the short - term due to the multi - empty game and the approaching holidays [6]. - Treasury bonds should focus on central bank dynamics. There may be opportunities for long - side intervention on dips [7]. - Precious metals are expected to run strongly as the Fed's monetary policy is in a loose cycle, and gold price will continue to rise [10]. - Copper prices may oscillate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton due to tight supply in the short - term and stable demand [15]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, alumina may run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate strongly [17]. - Zinc is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern and is recommended to be under - weighted [20]. - Nickel and stainless steel are mainly affected by the macro - level, and the fundamentals provide no clear guidance [21]. - Tin prices may oscillate around 274,000 yuan per ton, with short - term supply remaining tight [23]. - Carbonate lithium prices are expected to oscillate between 72,000 - 76,000 yuan per ton before the National Day holiday [25]. - Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly during the dry season but are restricted by inventory. Polysilicon trading is complex, and high volatility requires cautious participation [28]. - Lead prices are expected to be cautiously bullish as the supply - demand contradiction lies in raw materials [29]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate before the holiday, with limited upward and downward space [30]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with support from replenishment and high molten iron production but limited upward space due to demand and high shipments [34]. - Coking coal and coke prices are supported by pre - holiday replenishment, but the rebound height is restricted by high steel inventory [35]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are supported by cost and term structure improvement, and trial long - positions are recommended [38]. - Crude oil is under fundamental pressure, and the medium - term trend is bearish, although geopolitical risks may cause short - term rebounds [40]. - LPG is expected to oscillate weakly as the overall driving force weakens [44]. - PTA - PX needs macro - level drivers to break through, and the polyester peak season is not highly expected [48]. - MEG is expected to oscillate between 4200 - 4400 yuan, and short - term downward space is limited [51]. - Methanol is recommended to reduce long - positions and hold short - put options [54]. - PP's downward space is limited, and attention should be paid to device changes and opportunities for long - positions on dips [57]. - PE is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern as the real - world situation is weak but the valuation is low [60]. - PVC is recommended to be observed temporarily due to the coexistence of weak fundamentals and macro - level expectations [62]. - Pure benzene is facing increasing surplus pressure, and its price is expected to be weakly volatile. Styrene is expected to oscillate, and the spread between pure benzene and styrene can be considered to be widened [64][66]. - Fuel oil's cracking is stabilizing, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and the short - term situation remains weak [67][69]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate weakly, with the possibility of a last - chance rise in the futures market during the demand peak season [71]. - Urea is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 yuan in the 01 contract, with support and suppression coexisting [73]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **Market Information**: There were various events such as the China - US presidential phone call, policy announcements in China (e.g., Shanghai's property tax adjustment), and overseas events like the Fed's interest - rate decision, Japan's central bank actions, and geopolitical events [1]. - **Core Logic**: The macro - economy shows a complex situation with slowing growth and policy counter - cyclical adjustments. The stock and commodity markets are affected differently, and overseas, the Fed's policy path depends on employment and inflation [2]. 3.2 RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Performance**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar declined on Friday, with the central parity rate also being adjusted downwards [3]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed faces challenges in formulating monetary policy. The US dollar index may mainly trade based on the current situation, and the RMB exchange rate may oscillate around 7.10, with policy signals from the central parity rate being crucial [4]. 3.3 Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index was volatile with reduced trading volume last Friday, and the trading enthusiasm declined but sentiment improved [6]. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a multi - empty game. With the approaching holidays, the market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [6]. 3.4 Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: Treasury bonds rebounded last week but dropped significantly on Friday, and the money market was tight due to tax payments [7]. - **Core Logic**: The economic data in August showed downward pressure, but the market paid little attention. The bond market was less affected by the stock market. The market lacks a clear right - side signal, and attention should be paid to central bank dynamics [7]. 3.5 Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - **Market Performance**: London spot gold and silver continued to rise last week, with short - term adjustments after the Fed's interest - rate cut but strong rebounds on Friday [10]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed is in a monetary policy easing cycle, and gold prices will continue to rise. Attention should be paid to the Fed's policy expectations and relevant economic data [10]. 3.6 Copper - **Market Performance**: The main futures contract of Shanghai copper declined during the week, and inventories changed differently in different markets [13]. - **Core Logic**: The decline in copper prices was due to the Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's speech. In the future, copper prices may oscillate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton due to tight supply and stable demand [15]. 3.7 Aluminum Industry Chain - **Market Performance**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different trends, and relevant trading volumes and positions also changed [16]. - **Core Logic**: For aluminum, after the interest - rate cut, the focus may shift to fundamentals, and prices may oscillate strongly. Alumina is in a state of supply surplus and may have a weak price trend. Cast aluminum alloy is supported by cost and may oscillate strongly [17]. 3.8 Zinc - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated slightly, and trading volume and positions changed [19]. - **Core Logic**: The zinc market is affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut and supply - demand fundamentals. Supply is in surplus, and demand is average. It is recommended to maintain an under - weighted position [20]. 3.9 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel declined, and relevant spot prices and inventories also changed [20]. - **Core Logic**: They are mainly affected by the macro - level, with limited fundamental adjustments. The future trend needs further observation [21]. 3.10 Tin - **Market Performance**: The main futures contract of Shanghai tin declined slightly during the week, and inventories increased [22]. - **Core Logic**: The decline was due to the Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's speech. In the short - term, supply is tight, and prices may oscillate around 274,000 yuan per ton [23]. 3.11 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The weighted index contract of carbonate lithium rose last week, with changes in trading volume, positions, and warehouse receipts [24]. - **Core Logic**: The lithium - battery industry chain performed well last week. With the expected increase in downstream demand, carbonate lithium prices may oscillate before the National Day [24][25]. 3.12 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The weighted futures contracts of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends, with changes in trading volume, positions, and warehouse receipts [26]. - **Core Logic**: Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly during the dry season but are restricted by inventory. Polysilicon trading is complex, and high volatility requires cautious participation [28]. 3.13 Lead - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated at a high level, and trading volume and positions changed [29]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut has little impact on lead prices. The supply - demand fundamentals are stable, and prices may rise cautiously [29]. 3.14 Black Metals 3.14.1 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: Steel prices were strong, and there were price adjustments in billets [30]. - **Core Logic**: The supply of steel decreased, and demand improved slightly, but inventory was still at a high level. Before the holiday, steel prices are expected to oscillate with limited space [30]. 3.14.2 Iron Ore - **Core Logic**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the market may return to fundamental trading. Supply is abundant, demand is strong, and inventory is transferring from ports to steel mills. Prices are expected to oscillate [32][33]. 3.14.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: There were relevant geopolitical and policy - related events. - **Core Logic**: Downstream pre - holiday replenishment has started, and the market's sentiment is improving. However, high steel inventory restricts the rebound height of coking coal and coke prices [35]. 3.14.4 Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - **Market Performance**: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese rose, and positions decreased [37]. - **Core Logic**: They are supported by cost and term - structure improvement. The long - term logic is related to the anti - involution expectation, and trial long - positions are recommended [38]. 3.15 Energy and Chemicals 3.15.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: International oil prices weakened, with declines in both WTI and Brent crude [40]. - **Core Logic**: The core contradiction is between fundamental pressure and geopolitical support. Fundamentals are bearish in the medium - term, while geopolitical events may cause short - term rebounds [40]. 3.15.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: LPG prices declined, and relevant spot prices also changed [42]. - **Core Logic**: The overall driving force is weakening, with supply increasing slightly and demand changing little [44]. 3.15.3 PTA - PX - **Market Performance**: The prices of PX and PTA were affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [45]. - **Core Logic**: The polyester peak season is not highly expected, and macro - level drivers are needed for a breakthrough [48]. 3.15.4 MEG - Bottle Chip - **Market Performance**: The inventory of MEG increased, and the prices were affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [49]. - **Core Logic**: MEG is under pressure from inventory expectations but has limited downward space. It is expected to oscillate between 4200 - 4400 yuan [51]. 3.15.5 Methanol - **Market Performance**: The price of methanol changed, and the inventory situation was different in different regions [53]. - **Core Logic**: The main contradiction lies in the port, and it is recommended to reduce long - positions and hold short - put options [54]. 3.15.6 PP - **Market Performance**: The price of PP declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [55]. - **Core Logic**: The downstream demand recovery is less than expected, but the profit compression may trigger device shutdowns and a potential rebound [57]. 3.15.7 PE - **Market Performance**: The price of PE declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [58]. - **Core Logic**: The real - world situation is weak, but the low valuation limits the downward space, and an oscillatory pattern is expected [60]. 3.15.8 PVC - **Market Performance**: PVC prices were at a low level, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [61]. - **Core Logic**: The industry has weak fundamentals, but macro - level expectations make short - selling less attractive. It is recommended to observe temporarily [62]. 3.15.9 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Performance**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene declined, and their inventory situations changed [63][65]. - **Core Logic**: Pure benzene faces increasing surplus pressure, and styrene may oscillate. The spread between them can be considered to be widened [64][66]. 3.15.10 Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil changed, and their supply, demand, and inventory situations were different [67][68]. - **Core Logic**: Fuel oil's cracking is stabilizing, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and the short - term situation remains weak [67][69]. 3.15.11 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: The price of asphalt declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [70]. - **Core Logic**: Asphalt is expected to oscillate weakly, with the possibility of a last - chance rise in the futures market during the demand peak season [71]. 3.15.12 Urea - **Market Performance**: The price of urea declined, and its inventory situation changed [72]. - **Core Logic**: Urea is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 yuan in the 01 contract, with support and suppression coexisting [73].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: September 19, 2025 [2] - Research analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review | Futures Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest Change | Special Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2605 | 9258 | 9198 | 9212 | 9090 | 9108 | -150 | -1.62% | 44838 | 89682 | 3604 | | P2601 | 9494 | 9408 | 9428 | 9280 | 9304 | -190 | -2.00% | 627749 | 423179 | -12824 | | Y2605 | 8132 | 8090 | 8114 | 8000 | 8022 | -110 | -1.35% | 48401 | 223676 | -982 | | Y2601 | 8422 | 8352 | 8366 | 8262 | 8284 | -138 | -1.64% | -348953 | 574844 | -13601 | | OI2605 | 9572 | 9533 | 9541 | 9462 | - | -0.80% | 14529 | 47029 | 806 | | OI2601 | 10055 | 9991 | 10010 | 9926 | 9984 | - | -0.71% | 266924 | 326231 | -10512 | [7] Basis Price Information - East China Grade 3 rapeseed oil: September - October: OI2601 + 220; November - December: OI2601 + 230 - East China Grade 1 rapeseed oil: September: OI2601 + 310; October: OI2601 + 330 - East China Grade 1 soybean oil basis price: Spot: Y2601 + 150; October: Y2601 + 160; October - January: Y2601 + 190; February - May: Y2601 + 130; April - July: Y2605 + 200 - East China 24 - degree palm oil liquid oil distribution quote basis: September: P2601 - 50; October: P2601 + 0; October - November: P2601 + 50 [7] Core View - Bullish funds left the market, and the oil and fat market continued to decline. The negative factors mainly came from the external market. The EPA proposed a supplementary rule for the renewable fuel standard to solve the exemption problem of small refineries, but it was not finalized, disappointing the market. Also, the harvest of US soybeans and Canadian rapeseed was approaching, and the harvest pressure and uncertain demand prospects under the trade - war background weighed on the market. Near - term rapeseed oil continued the de - stocking trend, with relatively concentrated supply, and traders mainly tried to sell at higher prices, leading to a continuous increase in the basis price. Attention should be paid to the China - Canada trade situation and the supply of rapeseed raw materials. Recently, the oil and fat market faced pressure on the upside but also had support on the downside. Wait for the technical correction to end. In the long - and medium - term, the oil and fat market is bullish due to the favorable biodiesel policy [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to the data released by shipping surveyor ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15 were 742,648 tons, a 2.5% increase compared to 724,191 tons in the same period of August. Exports to China were 11,000 tons, a significant increase from 8,800 tons in the previous month. - According to the data from the Southern Palm Oil Millers Association of Malaysia (SPPOMA), Malaysia's palm oil production from September 1 - 15 decreased by 8.05% month - on - month. The fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreased by 6.94% month - on - month, and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreased by 0.21% month - on - month. - According to the data released by shipping surveyor SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15 were 404,688 tons, a 24.7% decrease compared to 537,183 tons in the same period of August. Exports to China were 34,000 tons, higher than 14,000 tons in the previous month. [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as the spot price of East China Grade 3 rapeseed oil, East China Grade 4 soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The palm oil futures price declined on Wednesday due to the unclear US biofuel proposal policy, which led to a significant drop in the US soybean oil futures price and dragged down the domestic oil market. In the short term, with the interweaving of long and short factors, the market shows a volatile trend. The heavy rain in Sabah, Malaysia, has affected at least 7 counties, and as one of the main palm oil producing areas, the market is worried about its impact on palm picking and transportation. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from September 1 - 15, 2025, increased by 2.5% compared with the same period in August [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil futures main contract was 9304 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was 196 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan; the trading volume of the active contract was 423179 hands, a decrease of 12824 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume was 1570 hands, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 9011 hands, a decrease of 16510 hands; the settlement price of BMD crude palm oil was 4414 Malaysian ringgit/ton, an increase of 31 ringgit; the settlement price of NYMEX light crude oil was 64.05 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.47 dollars [2] Spot Price - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan; in Zhangjiagang was 9380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan; in Tianjin was 9440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1110 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 dollars; the CNF price was 1148 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 dollars. The basis of the palm oil main contract was - 34 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly production of Malaysian palm oil was 1685962 tons, an increase of 298531 tons; the export volume was 1102266 tons, an increase of 96719 tons; the ending inventory was 1865537 tons, an increase of 302720 tons. The monthly production of Indonesian palm oil was 528.9 million tons, an increase of 72.9 million tons; the export volume was 360.6 million tons, an increase of 94.6 million tons; the inventory was 253 million tons, a decrease of 39 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of palm oil (customs caliber) was 16 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons. The national port inventory of soybean oil was 120.3 million tons, an increase of 0.2 million tons; the weekly port inventory of rapeseed oil was 60.77 million tons, a decrease of 2.13 million tons. The import cost of Malaysian palm oil was 9746.97 yuan/ton, an increase of 39.61 yuan. The ex - factory price of first - grade bulk soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, was 8480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the ex - factory price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Xiamen, Fujian, was 10240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan. The FOB price difference between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil was 11.36 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 28.22 dollars; the price difference between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 790 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan; the price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 970 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The annual food consumption of palm oil in Malaysia was 870 thousand tons, an increase of 5 thousand tons; the industrial consumption was 3100 thousand tons, unchanged. In Indonesia, the food consumption was 7400 thousand tons, an increase of 200 thousand tons; the industrial consumption was 13750 thousand tons, an increase of 500 thousand tons. In China, the food consumption was 3600 thousand tons, a decrease of 100 thousand tons; the industrial consumption was 2300 thousand tons, unchanged [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for palm oil was 16.64%, a decrease of 0.28%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 16.63%, a decrease of 0.29%. The 20 - day historical volatility was 15.24%, an increase of 0.2%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 15.35%, an increase of 0.14% [2] Industry News - The Sabah state government in Malaysia canceled the state - level Malaysia Day celebration due to heavy rain and floods in at least 7 counties. The SPPOMA data showed that from September 1 - 15, 2025, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 8.05% month - on - month, the fresh fruit bunch yield decreased by 6.94%, and the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.21% [2]

Group 1: Oil and Fat Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Palm oil futures in Malaysia are expected to maintain strong consolidation around 4,500 ringgit, and domestic palm oil futures may follow the upward trend. For soybean oil, the domestic supply is abundant, and the spot basis quote may rise as soybean supply decreases [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Soybean Oil**: On September 17, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,690 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8,366 yuan/ton, down 0.62%. The basis of Y2601 increased by 33.88%. The inventory of soybean oil in factories increased by about 10,000 tons last weekend [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,450 yuan/ton, up 0.53%. The futures price of P2601 was 9,424 yuan/ton, down 0.61%. The basis of P2601 increased by 131.71%. The import cost increased by 1.03%, and the import profit decreased by 79.70% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of Grade - 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,110 yuan/ton, up 0.50%. The futures price of O1601 was down 0.54%. The basis of O1601 increased by 1485.71% [1]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased. The soybean - palm oil spread and rapeseed - soybean oil spread showed different trends [1]. Group 2: Corn and Corn Starch Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In the short - term, the corn market has a loose supply - demand situation, and the futures price may fluctuate weakly, with strong support around 2,150 yuan/ton. In the medium - term, it will remain weak, and attention should be paid to the new grain purchase rhythm and opening price [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Corn**: The price of corn 2511 at Jinzhou Port decreased, and the basis decreased by 10.42%. The 11 - 3 spread decreased by 150.00%. The north - south trade profit increased by 51.28%, and the import profit increased by 0.82% [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2511 increased by 0.41%. The basis decreased by 8.55%. The starch - corn spread increased by 5.42% [2]. Group 3: Sugar Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The raw sugar price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern between 15 - 17 cents/pound. The domestic sugar market has现货 pressure, and the futures price may stabilize around 5,500 yuan/ton in the short - term, but the rebound space is limited, and a high - selling strategy is recommended [6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2601 and 2605 decreased. The ICE raw sugar主力 decreased by 2.33%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 17.39%. The position of the主力 contract increased by 0.67%, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 2.48% [6]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Guosan and Kunming decreased. The Nanning basis decreased by 1.64%, and the Kunming basis increased by 2.64%. The import prices of Brazilian sugar (both quota - within and quota - outside) decreased [6]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative production and sales of sugar in the country increased year - on - year. The production and cumulative sales rate in Guangxi also increased, while the monthly sales volume in Guangxi decreased. The industrial inventory in the country increased, and the import volume increased significantly [6]. Group 4: Cotton Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In the short - term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range, and they will face pressure after the new cotton is listed [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Market**: The prices of cotton 2605 and 2601 decreased slightly. The ICE US cotton主力 decreased by 0.72%. The 5 - 1 spread decreased by 14.29%. The position of the主力 contract decreased by 0.27%, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 3.03% [8]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index of 3128B increased slightly. The difference between CC Index:3128B and FC Index:M: 1% decreased by 6.75% [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial and industrial inventories decreased. The import volume increased, and the export volume of textile products showed different trends. The downstream finished product inventory was still decreasing, but the shipment slowed down [8]. Group 5: Meal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The supply - demand situation of US soybeans is strong on the supply side and weak on the demand side. The domestic supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be sufficient, but there is uncertainty in the supply from January to February next year. Attention should be paid to the support of the 01 contract around 3,000 yuan/ton [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.65%, and the futures price of M2601 decreased by 1.28%. The basis of M2601 decreased by 100.00%. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans in November increased [10]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.91%, and the futures price of RM2601 decreased by 2.30%. The basis of RM2601 increased by 7.84%. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in November decreased [10]. - **Soybeans**: The prices of domestic and imported soybeans were stable or decreased slightly. The bases of the first and second - grade soybean contracts increased [10]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased. The oil - meal ratio and the difference between soybean and rapeseed meal showed different trends [10]. Group 6: Pig Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The spot price of pigs lacks support. The near - month futures contracts will maintain a weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Market**: The prices of pig 2511 and 2601 decreased. The 11 - 1 spread increased by 1.92%. The position of the主力 contract increased by 10.86% [12]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in various regions decreased. The daily slaughter volume decreased by 0.40%, and the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.65% [12]. - **Other Indicators**: The self - breeding profit decreased by 68.02%, and the purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 28.27%. The inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly [12][15]. Group 7: Egg Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Egg prices may rise to the annual high due to increased demand, but the high inventory and cold - storage egg release may limit the increase. After the replenishment of traders next week, the demand may weaken, and local egg prices may decline slightly [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 11 - contract increased by 0.10%, and the price of the 10 - contract decreased by 1.00%. The 11 - 10 spread increased by 147.83% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price increased by 0.23%, and the basis increased by 0.89% [17]. - **Industry Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings decreased by 13.33%, and the price of culled chickens decreased by 0.22%. The egg - feed ratio increased by 2.88%, and the breeding profit increased by 20.84% [17].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Oils and fats [1] - Report date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Market review: In the East China market, the basis price of Grade 3 rapeseed oil from September to October is OI2601 + 220, and from November to December is OI2601 + 230; the basis price of Grade 1 rapeseed oil in September is OI2601 + 310, and in October is OI2601 + 330. The basis price of Grade 1 soybean oil in the spot market is Y2601 + 150, in October is Y2601 + 160, from October to January is Y2601 + 190, from February to May is Y2601 + 130, and from April to July is Y2605 + 200. The basis price of 24 - degree palm olein in East China in September is P2601 - 50, in October is P2601 + 0, and from October to November is P2601 + 50 [7] - Market analysis: Affected by the decline of US soybean oils and fats and the Malaysian market, the domestic oils and fats sector opened high and closed low. The EPA proposed a supplementary rule for the renewable fuel standard to solve the exemption problem of small refineries. The progress of Sino - US negotiations made the market speculate that China might purchase US agricultural products, and the soybean import volume in the fourth quarter might increase, causing funds to withdraw. The near - term rapeseed oil continued the de - stocking trend, with relatively concentrated supply, and traders mainly sold at higher basis prices. It is necessary to pay attention to the Sino - Canadian trade progress and the supply of rapeseed raw materials [7] - Market forecast: It is expected that the oils and fats will fluctuate in the near term. Soybean oil has certain support around 8200, and the fluctuation range of palm oil is approximately 9000 - 9600 [7] Group 3: Industry News - Malaysian palm oil exports: From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 742,648 tons, a 2.5% increase compared to the 724,191 tons exported from August 1 - 15. Exports to China were 11,000 tons, a significant increase compared to 8,800 tons in the same period last month [8] - Palm oil production forecast: Apex Securities analysts said that palm oil production may peak again from September to October and then decline due to favorable weather conditions [8] - Indian oil imports: In August 2025, India's palm oil imports increased by 15.76% to 990,528 tons compared to July; soybean oil imports decreased by 25.27% to 367,917 tons; and sunflower oil imports increased by 28.53% to 257,080 tons [8] Group 4: Data Overview - Data charts: Include charts of spot prices of East China Grade 3 rapeseed oil, East China Grade 4 soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm olein, basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1 spreads, US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate, and US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate [10][12][20]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - After continuous upward movement, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence recently. With the shrinking market trading volume, short - term indices face adjustment pressure. However, in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the idea of buying on dips is still the main strategy [3]. - In the bond market, considering the slowdown of economic data in August, the expected easing of funds, and the need to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market is expected to oscillate and repair in the short - term [5]. - For precious metals, although the Fed's interest - rate meeting was not as dovish as expected, the market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut will rise with the appointment of a new chairman. A long - position approach should be maintained, with a focus on the upward price potential of silver [7]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to oscillate, zinc and lead are expected to be strong in the short - term, and nickel is recommended to be bought on dips in the long - term [9][11][13]. - In the black building materials sector, although the black sector is currently under pressure from weak actual demand, with the possible implementation of overseas fiscal and monetary policies and the opening of China's policy space, it may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions, with the key point around mid - October [28]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the views on different products vary. For example, crude oil is recommended for long - positions, while PVC is recommended for short - positions [41][46]. - In the agricultural products sector, the strategies for different products also differ. For example, for pigs, pay attention to the possibility of a low - level rebound and short - selling after the rebound; for sugar, maintain a bearish view [54][62]. Summaries by Catalog Macro - finance Stock Index - **Message**: From January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 14.8198 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited opinions on relevant standards for intelligent connected vehicles. CATL's sodium - new batteries will be supplied in batches next year. Dongshan Precision said the supply of optical chips is tight [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided [2]. - **Trading Logic**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors have diverged, and short - term indices face adjustment pressure. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose [4]. - **Message**: From January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 14.8198 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The central bank conducted 418.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 114.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: Considering the slowdown of economic data in August and the expected easing of funds, the bond market is expected to oscillate and repair in the short - term, but pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Gold and silver prices declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the statement was not as dovish as expected, and precious metal prices were under short - term pressure [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Powell's statement on monetary policy was neutral. The voting pattern of the interest - rate meeting implies a change in the probability of the new Fed chairman. The market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut will rise with the appointment of a new chairman. A long - position approach should be maintained, with a focus on silver [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, copper prices adjusted. LME copper inventory decreased, and the cash/3M spread was at a discount [9]. - **Outlook**: The Fed's policy was less loose than expected, but there are some disturbances in the overseas copper mine industry. In the short - term, copper prices are expected to oscillate [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, aluminum prices declined. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged, and domestic inventories increased [10]. - **Outlook**: The Fed's statement was cautious, but the downstream is in the traditional consumption season, and aluminum prices are expected to be supported [10]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices showed different trends in the domestic and overseas markets. Zinc concentrate inventories increased, and processing fees were differentiated [11]. - **Outlook**: The zinc market is expected to be strong in the short - term, and if the zinc ingot export window opens, domestic zinc prices may rise [11]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices rose. Lead concentrate inventories increased slowly, and the TC decreased. The inventory of lead batteries decreased [12]. - **Outlook**: With the improvement of industrial data and market sentiment, lead prices are expected to break through the oscillation range and be strong in the short - term [12]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices oscillated. The cost of Indonesian nickel ore decreased slightly, and the demand for nickel iron was supported [13]. - **Outlook**: Although refined nickel inventories are under pressure, in the long - term, nickel prices are expected to be supported by policies. It is recommended to buy on dips [13]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar was slow to recover, and the inventory of tin ingots increased slightly [14][15]. - **Outlook**: With a significant decrease in supply and a marginal improvement in demand, tin prices are expected to be strong and oscillate [15]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market**: The spot index of carbonate lithium increased slightly, and the futures price also rose [16]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental improvement of carbonate lithium has been reflected in the price. Pay attention to industrial information and the impact of the Fed's policy [16]. Alumina - **Market**: The alumina index declined, and the import window opened [17]. - **Outlook**: The alumina market is expected to be in a state of over - capacity in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to supply - side policies and the Fed's policy [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices declined, and the inventory decreased [18]. - **Outlook**: Due to the weak demand in the real estate industry, the overall market demand is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined slightly, and the inventory increased [19]. - **Outlook**: Although the peak season characteristics are not obvious, the cost is strongly supported, and prices are expected to remain high in the short - term [19]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different trends. The inventory of rebar increased, while the inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly [21][22]. - **Outlook**: The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively strong. If demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may decline [22]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose slightly, and the supply and demand situation changed [23][24]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and overseas macro - changes [24]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices declined slightly, and the inventory decreased. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [25]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices declined slightly, and the inventory decreased. The supply decreased slightly due to equipment maintenance, and the demand was mainly for rigid needs. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [26]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. The spot prices were stable [27]. - **Outlook**: Both are expected to oscillate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [27]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand was supported. The inventory remained high. It is recommended to pay attention to industry policies [30][31]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices declined slightly. The supply was close to the same - period high, and the inventory transfer was limited. Pay attention to capacity integration policies [32][33]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: The supply of rubber may be affected by weather, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season. The inventory decreased [35][36]. - **Outlook**: Adopt a long - position approach in the medium - term and wait and see in the short - term [39]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose. The U.S. EIA data showed changes in inventory [40]. - **Outlook**: Maintain a long - position approach for crude oil, as the fundamentals support the price, and if the geopolitical premium returns, prices may rise [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol futures prices rose slightly, and the spot price declined. The inventory was high, and the demand was expected to improve [42]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities and 1 - 5 positive spreads [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea futures prices declined, and the spot price was stable. The inventory was rising, and the demand was weak [43]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market**: Spot prices rose, and futures prices declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the inventory is decreasing [44][45]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to buy on dips for the pure benzene US - South Korea spread [44]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [46]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, but beware of upward fluctuations due to policy sentiment [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: EG prices rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was stable [47]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [48]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices rose, and the inventory decreased. The supply was affected by unexpected maintenance, and the demand was stable [49]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the improvement of the terminal and raw - material maintenance [49]. p - Xylene - **Market**: PX prices rose, and the inventory decreased. The load was high, and the downstream PTA load was low [50]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the recovery of the terminal [50]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: PE futures prices rose, and the spot price was stable. The inventory was decreasing, and the demand was expected to increase [51]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to oscillate upward [51]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: PP futures prices rose, and the spot price was stable. The supply pressure was high, and the demand was gradually recovering [52]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, there is no obvious contradiction, and prices are expected to oscillate [52]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices declined, and the supply was expected to be high in September [54]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the possibility of a low - level rebound and short - selling after the rebound, and continue the far - month reverse - spread strategy [54]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were mostly stable, and the supply was stable [55]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - term long - positions in the far - month contract when the price falls and the position increases [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: U.S. soybean prices oscillated, and domestic soybean meal prices declined slightly. The inventory was at a high level [56][57]. - **Outlook**: The soybean import cost is expected to be weak. Soybean meal is expected to oscillate within a range, waiting for a driving factor [58]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Malaysian palm oil export and production data showed changes. Domestic oil prices declined [59]. - **Outlook**: Oils and fats are expected to be strong and oscillate in the medium - term. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price stabilizes [60]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar futures prices declined, and the spot price was stable. The supply increased, and the demand was weak [61][62]. - **Outlook**: Maintain a bearish view on sugar prices, and pay attention to the Brazilian production [62]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton futures prices oscillated, and the spot price rose slightly. The downstream operating rate increased, and the inventory was low [63][64]. - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [64].

研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 9 月 17 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | | 合药 | 前结身价 : | 开盘价 : | 最高价 j | 最低价 : | 收盘价 | :流跌: | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持企业 | 特分重要化 | | --- | --- ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish in the medium to long term, recommend buying on dips for stock indices; hold a wait-and-see attitude for treasury bonds [1][5] - Black building materials: Range trading for coking coal and rebar; recommend buying on dips for glass [1][7][8] - Non-ferrous metals: Wait-and-see or hold long positions on dips for copper, with short-term trading; recommend buying on dips after a pullback for aluminum; recommend waiting or shorting on rallies for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][16][17] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, urea, and methanol are expected to trade in a range; rubber is expected to trade with a bullish bias; polyolefins are expected to trade in a wide range; recommend an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract for soda ash [1][20][23][31][33] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn, PTA are expected to trade in a range; apples are expected to trade with a bullish bias; jujubes are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][37][39] - Agricultural and livestock products: Recommend shorting on rallies for hogs and eggs; corn is expected to trade in a range; soybean meal is expected to trade in a range; oils are expected to trade with a bullish bias [1][41][43][47] Core Views - The A-share market is in a structural bull market, with the logic of the liquidity bull market remaining unchanged. The market has formed a "bull market mindset," and one should not easily use the experience and rules of a sideways or bear market as signals [5] - The bond market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and any rebound should be treated as a short-term rally [5] - The glass market is expected to strengthen in the short term, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the arrival of the peak season [9] - The copper market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by the weakening US dollar and the expected improvement in domestic demand [10] - The aluminum market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [12] - The nickel market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend in the medium to long term, due to the expected increase in supply and the weakening demand [16] - The tin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [16] - The silver and gold markets are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [17][18] - The PVC market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [20] - The caustic soda market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in demand and the reduction in supply [23] - The styrene market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the weakening demand and the high inventory [25] - The rubber market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [27] - The urea market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [28] - The methanol market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [31] - The polyolefin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [33] - The soda ash market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [36] - The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [37] - The PTA market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [38] - The apple market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [39] - The jujube market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [40] - The hog market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [41] - The egg market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [42] - The corn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [43] - The soybean meal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [46] - The oil market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [47] Summary by Category Macro-finance - Stock indices: The A-share market is in a structural bull market, with the logic of the liquidity bull market remaining unchanged. The market has formed a "bull market mindset," and one should not easily use the experience and rules of a sideways or bear market as signals. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [5] - Treasury bonds: The bond market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and any rebound should be treated as a short-term rally. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [5] Black building materials - Coking coal: The coking coal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [7] - Rebar: The rebar market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [7] - Glass: The glass market is expected to strengthen in the short term, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the arrival of the peak season. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [9] Non-ferrous metals - Copper: The copper market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by the weakening US dollar and the expected improvement in domestic demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [10] - Aluminum: The aluminum market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [12] - Nickel: The nickel market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend in the medium to long term, due to the expected increase in supply and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [16] - Tin: The tin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [16] - Silver and gold: The silver and gold markets are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [17][18] Energy and chemicals - PVC: The PVC market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [20] - Caustic soda: The caustic soda market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [23] - Styrene: The styrene market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the weakening demand and the high inventory. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [25] - Rubber: The rubber market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [27] - Urea: The urea market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [28] - Methanol: The methanol market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [31] - Polyolefins: The polyolefin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [33] - Soda ash: The soda ash market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [36] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [37] - PTA: The PTA market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [38] - Apples: The apple market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [39] - Jujubes: The jujube market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [40] Agricultural and livestock products - Hogs: The hog market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [41] - Eggs: The egg market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [42] - Corn: The corn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [43] - Soybean meal: The soybean meal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [46] - Oils: The oil market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Fats and Oils Industry - Palm oil: Malaysian crude palm oil futures may gradually rebound and reach 4,500 ringgit, and then start an upward trend. Domestic palm oil futures will remain range - bound and may follow the Malaysian trend to rise later, with a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength [1]. - Soybean oil: Analysts expect the NOPA member's soybean oil inventory in August 2025 to drop by 5.8% compared to July. In China, downstream consumption has increased, but overall demand is down year - on - year, and soybean supply is sufficient, resulting in a situation of both long and short factors. Currently, soybean oil supply is abundant, and the basis price fluctuates narrowly [1]. 2.2 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - In the short term, the corn market has a loose supply - demand situation, and the futures price will fluctuate weakly. In the medium term, it will remain weak, and investors are advised to be cautious about short - selling [2]. 2.3 Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern between 15 - 17 cents per pound. Domestic sugar futures may stabilize around 5,500 due to the raw sugar rebound, but the rebound space is limited, and a strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended [6]. 2.4 Cotton Industry - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range, and after the new cotton is listed, prices will face pressure [7]. 2.5 Egg Industry - Egg prices may rise to the annual high due to increased demand from traders, but the high inventory and cold - storage egg release may limit the increase. After traders finish restocking next week, egg prices in some areas may decline slightly [9]. 2.6 Meal Industry - The supply - weak demand pattern of US soybeans continues to suppress the price. Brazilian premiums are strong, providing cost support for the domestic market. In China, concerns about future supply are alleviated, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills has returned to a high level. The cost support for domestic meals is strong, and the 01 contract is expected to operate in the range of 3,050 - 3,150 [11]. 2.7 Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is under pressure due to increased slaughter, but the decline space is limited. Demand is slowly recovering, but it is uncertain whether it can absorb the supply. After a short - term rebound, there may be further downside potential, and both futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom - out [13][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fats and Oils Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8,610 yuan/ton; the futures price of Y2601 increased by 28 yuan to 8,076 yuan/ton, with a 0.72% increase; the basis of Y2601 decreased by 28 yuan to 534 yuan/ton, a 9.80% decline [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong remained at 9,320 yuan/ton; the futures price of P2601 increased by 112 yuan to 9,174 yuan/ton, a 1.24% increase; the basis of P2601 decreased by 112 yuan to 146 yuan/ton, a 43.41% decline [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 100 yuan to 9,940 yuan/ton; the futures price of Ol601 increased by 15 yuan to 9,511 yuan/ton, a 0.16% increase; the basis of Ol601 decreased by 115 yuan to 429 yuan/ton, a 21.14% decline [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Soybean oil inter - delivery spread 01 - 05 decreased by 4 yuan to 300 yuan/ton, a 1.32% decline; palm oil inter - delivery spread 01 - 05 increased by 14 yuan to 248 yuan/ton, a 5.98% increase; rapeseed oil inter - delivery spread 01 - 05 increased by 28 yuan to 380 yuan/ton, a 7.76% increase [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch Industry 3.2.1 Corn - The futures price of corn 2511 decreased by 30 yuan to 2,167 yuan/ton, a 1.37% decline; the basis increased by 30 yuan to 143 yuan/ton, a 26.55% increase; the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 19 yuan to - 5 yuan/ton, a 135.71% decline [2]. 3.2.2 Corn Starch - The futures price of corn starch 2511 decreased by 31 yuan to 2,443 yuan/ton, a 1.25% decline; the basis increased by 31 yuan to 117 yuan/ton, a 36.05% increase; the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 19 yuan to - 42 yuan/ton, an 82.61% decline [2]. 3.3 Sugar Industry 3.3.1 Futures Market - The futures price of sugar 2601 increased by 9 yuan to 5,517 yuan/ton, a 0.16% increase; the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at 23 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest decreased by 2,891 lots to 381,607 lots, a 0.75% decline; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 274 lots to 11,325 lots, a 2.36% decline [6]. 3.3.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The Nanning basis decreased by 9 yuan to 364 yuan/ton, a 2.41% decline; the Kunming basis decreased by 9 yuan to 329 yuan/ton, a 2.66% decline [6]. 3.3.3 Industry Situation - National sugar production increased by 119.89 million tons to 1,116.21 million tons, a 12.03% increase; sales increased by 114 million tons to 1,000 million tons, a 12.87% increase; the national sales ratio increased by 0.66 percentage points to 89.60%; the industrial inventory increased by 5.78 million tons to 116 million tons, a 5.24% increase [6]. 3.4 Cotton Industry 3.4.1 Futures Market - The futures price of cotton 2605 increased by 30 yuan to 13,850 yuan/ton, a 0.22% increase; the futures price of cotton 2601 increased by 22 yuan to 13,882 yuan/ton, a 0.18% increase; the 5 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan to - 35 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest decreased by 8,077 lots to 498,295 lots, a 1.60% decline; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 118 lots to 4,899 lots, a 2.35% decline [7]. 3.4.2 Spot Market - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 15 yuan to 15,167 yuan/ton; the CC Index: 3128B increased by 1 yuan to 15,249 yuan/ton; the FC Index:M: 1% increased by 17 yuan to 13,388 yuan/ton [7]. 3.4.3 Industry Situation - Commercial inventory decreased by 33.85 million tons to 148.17 million tons, an 18.6% decline; industrial inventory decreased by 3.19 million tons to 89.23 million tons, a 3.5% decline; imports increased by 2 million tons to 5 million tons, a 66.7% increase [7]. 3.5 Egg Industry - The futures price of the egg 11 - contract increased by 103 yuan to 3,143 yuan per 500 kg, a 3.39% increase; the futures price of the egg 10 - contract increased by 103 yuan to 3,126 yuan per 500 kg, a 3.41% increase; the basis increased by 19 yuan to 515 yuan per 500 kg, a 3.81% increase [9]. 3.6 Meal Industry 3.6.1 Soybean Meal - The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal decreased by 20 yuan to 3,030 yuan/ton, a 0.66% decline; the futures price of M2601 decreased by 37 yuan to 3,042 yuan/ton, a 1.20% decline; the basis increased by 17 yuan to - 12 yuan/ton, a 58.62% increase [11]. 3.6.2 Rapeseed Meal - The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal decreased by 50 yuan to 2,600 yuan/ton, a 1.89% decline; the futures price of RM2601 decreased by 27 yuan to 2,504 yuan/ton, a 1.07% decline; the basis increased by 23 yuan to 96 yuan/ton, a 31.94% increase [11]. 3.7 Pig Industry 3.7.1 Futures Market - The futures price of the main pig contract increased by 20 yuan to 13,275 yuan/ton, a 0.15% increase; the 11 - 1 spread decreased by 35 yuan to - 470 yuan/ton, an 8.05% decline; the main contract's open interest increased by 2,009 lots to 81,062 lots, a 2.54% increase [13]. 3.7.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Henan decreased by 150 yuan to 13,300 yuan/ton; in Shandong, it decreased by 250 yuan to 13,300 yuan/ton; in Sichuan, it decreased by 300 yuan to 13,050 yuan/ton; in Liaoning, it decreased by 200 yuan to 12,900 yuan/ton [13].

Report Overview - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **East China Third - Grade Rapeseed Oil**: From September to October, the price is OI2601 + 220; from November to December, it is OI2601 + 230. - **East China First - Grade Rapeseed Oil**: In September, the price is OI2601 + 300; in October, it is OI2601 + 320. - **East China First - Grade Soybean Oil**: The spot price is Y2601 + 150, in October it is Y2601 + 160, from October to January it is Y2601 + 190, from February to May it is Y2601 + 130, and from April to July it is Y2605 + 200. - **East China 24 - Degree Palm Oil**: In September, the basis is P2601 - 50, in October it is P2601 + 0, and from October to November it is P2601 + 50. [7] Oil and Fat Comments - The market is dominated by news such as China - Canada and China - US negotiations, showing a high - level volatile trend. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term inventory is at a high level with sufficient supply, but there are concerns about long - term soybean supply, and the cost side provides strong support, so there is limited room for price decline. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Affected by domestic tariff policies, the supply of domestic rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is expected to decrease significantly. The supply is sufficient before the end of the year based on current inventory and ship purchases, and the long - term situation depends on policies. The market trend is tangled with insufficient driving force. - **Palm Oil**: The production in the palm oil - producing areas may still increase in the third quarter, peaking in September - October and then declining. The high - frequency export data in early September is poor, and the price lacks short - term upward momentum. - **Industry Policy**: Indonesia may first increase the mandatory palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel to 45% (B45) and then to B50. - **Operation Suggestion**: For the three major oils, the strategy is mainly to buy low and go long on a single - side basis. [8] 2. Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: From September 1 - 10, the production decreased by 3.17% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area down 2.7% and the oil extraction rate (OER) down 0.09% [9]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil Exports (ITS)**: From September 1 - 10, the export volume was 476,610 tons, a 1.2% decrease compared to August 1 - 10. Exports to China were 0.8 million tons, higher than 0.1 million tons in the same period last month [9]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil Exports (SGS)**: From September 1 - 10, the export volume was 244,940 tons, a 27.8% decrease compared to August 1 - 10. Exports to China were 0.83 million tons, a decrease of 0.57 million tons from the previous week [9][10]. - **Policy News**: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng led a delegation to Spain to hold talks with the US from September 14 - 17, discussing issues such as US unilateral tariff measures, abuse of export controls, and TikTok. Indonesia may first implement a B45 transition plan before the B50 biodiesel policy, reflecting the government's caution and flexibility in promoting renewable energy use and expanding domestic palm oil demand [15]. 3. Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of East China third - grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, and the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as price spreads and exchange rates [13][14][16]