行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 12 月 23 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | | | 前结身价 : | 开盘价 : | 最高价 | | 最低价 :收盘价 :涨跌:涨跌幅 | | | : 成交堂 : | | 持企業 持企重要化: | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent performance of precious metals and energy commodities, noting that gold, silver, and copper have reached historical highs, while oil prices have also increased due to geopolitical tensions and supply dynamics [1][2][3]. Precious Metals - International gold and silver prices have reached historical highs, with gold rising over 2% and silver increasing by more than 3% [1][2]. - The U.S. November CPI was reported at 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1%, and the core CPI at 2.6%, below the anticipated 3%, which raises questions about inflation but provides room for potential interest rate cuts [2][20]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 64,000 jobs, better than the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, supporting the expectation of continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, which is bullish for precious metals [2][20]. Energy Commodities - Oil prices have seen a significant increase, with the SC night market rising by 2.01%. Saudi Arabia's average daily crude oil exports reached 7.1 million barrels in October, the highest in two and a half years, up from 6.46 million barrels in September [3][14]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding potential sanctions on Russia's energy sector, are influencing oil prices, although the overall trend remains uncertain [3][14]. Agricultural Products - The palm oil market is experiencing upward pressure due to Malaysia's reduction of export tax rates, although inventory levels remain high, and a significant improvement in the supply-demand balance is not expected until December [29]. - The soybean market is under pressure from slow export sales and strong production expectations in South America, leading to a bearish outlook for soybean prices [28]. Financial Markets - The U.S. stock indices have shown an upward trend, with significant market activity and a financing balance increase, indicating a potential long-term bullish trend supported by favorable policies and liquidity [11]. - The bond market is experiencing a general decline, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.845%, reflecting a mixed economic outlook and expectations of future monetary policy adjustments [12][13]. Shipping Index - The European shipping index has shown a strong upward movement, with a reported increase of 8.77% in the EC contract, reflecting positive market sentiment and expectations for price stability in the near future [32][33].

国际市场：据外媒报道，印尼棕榈油协会（GAPKI）周四发布数据显示，印尼 10 月棕 榈油出口量为 280 万吨，较去年同期下滑约 3%。印尼 10 月毛棕榈油产量为 435 万吨，10 月 底的库存水平为 233 万吨，低于之前一个月的 259 万吨。 国内市场（P/Y/OI）：今日棕榈油期价震荡小幅收涨。截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日（第 50 周），全国重点地区棕榈油商业库存 65.27 万吨，环比上周减少 3.10 万吨，减幅 4.53%，近 期棕榈油处于历史同期中性水平。产地报价偏稳运行，进口利润倒挂有所扩大，目前约在-200 附近。基差偏稳运行，关注后期国内买船及到港情况。短期棕榈油仍缺乏明显驱动，整体维 持震荡偏弱运行，不过目前出现技术性反弹，可考虑高抛低吸区间操作。 研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 12 月 18 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | | | | | | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | 2025/12/18 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 12 月 18 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 二、行业要闻 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 马来西亚南部棕果厂商公会（SPPOMA）数据显示，12 月 1-15 日马来西 亚棕榈油产量环比下降 2.97%，其中鲜果串（FFB）单产环比下降 2. ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The global silver market is experiencing a historic surge, with spot silver prices recently breaking through $65 and $66 per ounce, approaching $67 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of approximately 130%, which is double the increase in gold futures [1][2] - Factors contributing to this surge include supply-demand imbalance, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and increased capital inflow [1][2] - The Federal Reserve has room for further rate cuts of 50 to 100 basis points, as indicated by Governor Waller, due to a weakening job market and controlled inflation [1][5] Group 2: Key Commodities - **Silver**: The price of silver has reached new historical highs, supported by a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a $40 billion reserve management purchase, which improves market liquidity and boosts risk appetite [2][16] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market for coking coal remains stable, with slight increases in construction and hot-rolled steel production. However, there is a downward trend in iron production, and the market is expected to stabilize due to seasonal demand [2][21] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass production is in a phase of inventory digestion, with a decrease in glass inventory and a slight increase in soda ash inventory. The market is closely monitoring potential changes in industry operations [3][15] Group 3: Financial Market Trends - The U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping by 1.16%. However, the A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend supported by policy and capital flow [8] - The bond market saw a general increase, with the 10-year treasury yield falling to 1.8425%, indicating a continued loose monetary policy environment [9][10] Group 4: International and Domestic News - Internationally, the Federal Reserve's policy direction indicates a likelihood of maintaining interest rates in January, with a 77% probability of no change and a 21% chance of a 25 basis point cut [5] - Domestically, the Ministry of Finance reported a slight increase in public budget revenue, with tax revenue growing by 1.8% year-on-year [6]

研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | | | | | | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | 2025/12/17 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | 品种 | 2605收盘价 | 涨跌 | | 各品种地区现货价 | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 7822 | (50) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8332 | | | | 8382 | 8242 | | 560 | 10 | 510 | 0 | 420 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8342 | (68) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8312 | | | | 8432 | 8452 | | -30 | -1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of oils and fats. The market is in wide - range volatile operation, waiting for the US energy policy to boost the market and further news on Indonesia's B50. Due to the lack of trend drivers, short - term trading is recommended. The P05 contract may find support around 8300 yuan/ton. As the pressure in palm oil - producing areas gradually weakens, its cost - effectiveness increases, and we should wait for future improvement opportunities [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - There is a game between inventory pressure and demand growth in palm oil - producing areas. In November, Malaysian palm oil production decreased slightly, but the inventory reached the highest level in 6 years. The uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 plan persists, and there is a lack of upward momentum in quotes [1]. - The US biodiesel policy remains unclear. The final determination of US biofuel obligations, originally scheduled to be announced in November by the EPA, has been postponed, and the role of future policies in boosting the market is questionable [1]. - There is no positive trend in China - Canada talks, and there is an expectation of tight supply of rapeseed products in the future [1]. - Although the inventory of three major domestic oils and fats has declined, the overall supply is still sufficient, lacking upward momentum. Rapeseed oil continues to reduce inventory, with relatively limited pressure [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Short - term wide - range volatile adjustment, with the possibility of the price center rising in the medium term [16]. - **Price Range**: The P2605 fluctuates in the range of 8300 - 8800 yuan/ton, Y2605 in the range of 7800 - 8150 yuan/ton, and OI2605 in the range of 9000 - 9500 yuan/ton [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: Adopt a short - term weak unilateral thinking. For arbitrage, observe the weakening trend of the rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm spreads [16]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedge Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: The current basis is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. The rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm spreads are expected to weaken [17]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price of soybean oil is forecasted to be in the range of 7800 - 8150 yuan/ton, rapeseed oil 9000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and palm oil 8300 - 8800 yuan/ton [19][21]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for traders, refineries, and oil mills according to their inventory and procurement situations [21]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides the latest prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in both futures and spot markets, as well as various spreads [22][23]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: On December 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1140,000 tons, down 30,000 tons week - on - week, 50,000 tons month - on - month, and up 180,000 tons year - on - year; rapeseed oil was 340,000 tons, down 20,000 tons week - on - week, 50,000 tons month - on - month, and down 80,000 tons year - on - year; palm oil was 650,000 tons, down 30,000 tons week - on - week, 10,000 tons month - on - month, and up 110,000 tons year - on - year [24]. - **Negative Information**: The US EPA is expected to issue the final rule on the renewable fuel standard in the first quarter of 2026. The palm oil export volume of Malaysia from December 1 - 15 decreased compared with the same period last month [25]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Recent oil and fat transactions have been stable, with soybean oil transactions increasing month - on - month, and rapeseed oil and palm oil transactions decreasing slightly month - on - month [26]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data, Malaysian palm oil high - frequency production and export data, progress on the re - allocation decision of US small refinery exemptions, progress in China - Canada trade negotiations, and weather information in producing areas [28][29]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The overall oil and fat market was weak this week. There was a lack of upward driving force, and the US biodiesel policy was postponed again. The demand in the global oil and fat market was in doubt. The capital trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were all bearish [30]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of the main oil and fat contracts continued to be weak this week [32]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The oil and fat market showed a near - strong and far - weak Back structure, which became shallower this week [32]. - **Spread Structure**: The spreads of soybean - palm, rapeseed - soybean, and rapeseed - palm all rebounded slightly this week [52]. 3.3.2 Overseas Market - The overseas market was weakly volatile this week. There was a lack of positive factors, and the MPOB report on palm oil was bearish. The US energy policy guidance was unclear, and the CBOT soybean oil management fund's position decreased slightly [54]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The POGO spread rebounded slightly this week, and the cost of producing biofuel from palm oil increased slightly. The BOHO spread also rebounded slightly, but the cost of producing biodiesel from US soybean oil remained at a recent low [60]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. Recently, the import profit has changed slightly, and domestic buying has started after the basis turned positive [62]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Deduction of the Supply - Demand Balance Sheet in Producing Areas - In November, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased month - on - month, but the inventory exceeded expectations, and the supply pressure was not alleviated [64]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm Oil**: With the basis turning positive, domestic buyers have started to place orders, but the transactions are difficult to improve in the off - season. In the year - end production - reduction stage in producing areas, the willingness to sell is limited, and domestic orders are not expected to increase [66]. - **Soybean Oil**: The arrival of raw materials in December will decline, and the crushing volume may decrease, but the overall supply is still relatively loose [66]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed has arrived, the quantity is limited. The inventory will continue to decrease. If the China - Canada relationship cannot be eased, the future supply will still be tight [66]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The short - term inventory of the three major oils and fats is relatively high year - on - year, and the downstream demand is sluggish. Although the fourth quarter is the traditional consumption peak season for oils and fats, the overall terminal demand remains weak [68].

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 12 月 16 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-16） | | | | 铁矿：铁矿石"供给宽松、需求低位、港口累库"的主线 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 不变：2026 年全球矿山新增 6400–6500 万吨，增速远超 | | | | | 粗钢；当下铁水环比再降、板材库存高压，钢厂检修预期 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 升温，现实需求疲弱，铁矿价格震荡偏弱运行。钢材出口 | | | | | 实施许可证管理制度，最直接的影响就是买单出口被"限 | | | | | 制"，对于明年钢材出口的预期需要下调，同时关注是否 | | | | | 匹配粗钢产量管控政策，对于原料而言是确定性的利空。 | | | | | 策略上，依托年底成材高结转库存以及铁矿过剩预期，寻 | | | | | 找反弹抛空机会。 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 煤焦：上周四中央经济工作会议虽然再提"反内卷"，但 | | | | | 增量政策的信息太少，导致盘面有所回落。钢材出口实施 | | | | ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 船运调查机构ITS数据显示，马来西亚12月1-15日棕榈油出口量为613172吨，较上月同期出口的728995 吨减少15.89%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a table indicating the likelihood of a bullish or bearish outlook for various varieties, but it emphasizes that these are only possibilities, not definite judgments [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The social finance growth rate remains at a high level. The increase in RMB loans and social financing scale in the first 11 months of 2025 exceeded the full - year figure of the previous year. The growth rates of inclusive small and micro loans, medium - and long - term loans for the manufacturing industry, and technology loans continue to be higher than the overall loan growth rate [1]. - For precious metals, short - term fluctuations do not change the long - term upward trend. Factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit and central bank gold purchases provide solid support [2][18]. - The copper market is expected to shift to a supply - demand gap due to disruptions in ore supply. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2][19]. - The aluminum price has short - term weakening upward momentum, but a long - term optimistic outlook is still recommended, considering macro - level support and the situation of supply and demand [3][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Main News Concerns 3.1.1. International News - The Bank of Japan may maintain its commitment to continue raising interest rates next week, emphasizing that the subsequent pace of rate hikes will depend on the economy's response to each increase. The market has almost fully priced in the rate increase from 0.5% to 0.75% at the December 18 - 19 meeting [6]. 3.1.2. Domestic News - The Ministry of Finance will implement a more active fiscal policy next year to support the expansion of domestic demand, optimize supply, and promote high - quality economic development [7]. 3.1.3. Industry News - Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., jointly invested by several leading silicon material enterprises, was established, regarded as an important step in the anti - involution of the photovoltaic industry. The planned annual silicon material production capacity of relevant enterprises in the future will not exceed 1.5 million tons [7]. 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market varieties on December 11 and 12, 2025, including the S&P 500, FTSE China A50 Futures, ICE Brent Crude Oil Continuous, etc. [8]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The long - term slow - bull pattern of the A - share market is expected to be consolidated. The Fed's interest rate cut in December and positive policy signals are expected to boost market risk appetite [9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Loose policies are expected to increase, providing support for short - term treasury bond futures prices. The market funds are relatively loose [10][11]. 3.3.2. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: The overall downward trend is hard to change. The IEA has adjusted the forecast of world oil demand, and OPEC+ production has increased [12]. - **Methanol**: It may fluctuate weakly in the short term. The start - up rate of domestic coal - to - olefin plants has decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory has declined [13]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock in the short term. Overseas supply pressure exists, while domestic supply elasticity is weakening, and demand supports the stable start of all - steel tires [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Pay attention to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling and the digestion rhythm of upstream supply and demand. The downstream demand is steadily releasing [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both domestic glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. The inventory of glass is decreasing faster, while soda ash still needs time for supply - demand digestion [16][17]. 3.3.3. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Short - term fluctuations do not change the long - term upward trend. Interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion by the Fed support prices [18]. - **Copper**: The price dropped by more than 2% over the weekend. The concentrate supply is tight, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a gap [19]. - **Zinc**: The price dropped by more than 1% over the weekend. The supply of zinc concentrate is temporarily tight, and attention should be paid to the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals [20]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term upward momentum is weakening, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. The macro - level supports the price, and the supply and demand situation needs further attention [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Be cautious about the upward height in the short term. The weekly social inventory is decreasing, but potential supply increments have not been released [22][23]. 3.3.4. Black Products - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. The rigid demand is weakening, but strong policy expectations in December provide upward momentum [24]. - **Steel**: The steel price has the power to rebound in the short term, but the upward space is limited. The medium - term outlook is weak [25]. 3.3.5. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The price is expected to be weak. Brazilian soybean sowing progress is slightly behind, US soybean exports are slow, and domestic long - term supply is sufficient [26]. - **Edible Oils**: Palm oil has significant inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term due to positive news [27]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term. International factors and domestic supply and cost factors need to be considered [28][29]. - **Cotton**: The price trend is strong, supported by factors such as fast sales progress, possible reduction in planting area, and improved Sino - US relations [30]. 3.3.6. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The 02 contract may face adjustment pressure, and the 04 contract is expected to have further downward space due to supply surplus and potential Red Sea route resumption [31].