本以为关税战已经够严厉了，没想到美国将矛头指向了船运行业。2024年3月12日，五个美国工会联合 向政府投诉，指责中国在造船和海运行业过于强势，压缩了本土产业的生存空间。中国船厂的产量占全 球总量的一半以上，而美国的份额几乎微乎其微，这种情况令人不平。特朗普团队接手后，立刻启动了 301调查，表面上是为了保护美国就业，实际上则是在借此机会卡住中国货物的流通。调查拖了几个 月，工会代表们直言不讳地表示，中国的低价船只抢占了市场，导致美国船厂的工人失业率居高不下。 美国贸易代表办公室一开始提议，每艘中国造船停靠美国港口时，要交纳百万美元的费用，无论船只大 小。也就是说，一艘大集装箱船每次靠岸，就得额外支付上百万美元，运营成本随之大幅增加。农业出 口商和煤炭企业最先表示反对，称这将使美国产品在国际市场上变得更贵，订单可能流失。欧洲和亚洲 的航运公司也表示不满，认为这项政策不分青红皂白，全球供应链会因此遭到严重扰乱。面对这些反 馈，特朗普政府终于决定调整政策，避免局势彻底崩盘。 2025年4月17日，最终的政策发布，针对中国拥有或运营的船只，每净吨需缴纳50美元，三年内每年加 收30美元，到2028年这一费用将上涨到 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the transition of China's outbound strategy from "product export" to "capital export," focusing on investments in overseas resource sectors such as mining and oil and gas, which will reshape global trade patterns [7][20][25] - The report recommends prioritizing investments in three sub-sectors of the shipping industry: dry bulk shipping, which is approaching a supply-demand inflection point; the tanker sector, which is entering a strong earnings period; and regional container shipping with favorable supply-demand structures [4][7][20] Group 2 - In the dry bulk shipping sector, iron ore is the largest single commodity, accounting for 27% of shipping volume in 2024. The West African Simandou iron ore project, with a projected annual capacity of 120 million tons by 2028, is expected to significantly alter China's iron ore import landscape and drive a 2.2% increase in global dry bulk shipping demand [8][44][48] - The tanker sector is experiencing a recovery as previous demand constraints are lifted, with a projected fleet growth of only 0.5% for VLCCs in 2026, indicating a tight supply environment. Factors such as increased oil production from South America and stricter sanctions on Russia are expected to boost demand [9][70] - The container shipping industry is entering a pressure testing phase due to the end of export rush effects from trade tensions and ongoing geopolitical conflicts. However, there are still structural growth opportunities in regional markets, particularly in Asia and emerging markets [10][70] Group 3 - The report provides forecasts for the shipping industry, predicting a demand growth rate of 3.5% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027 for dry bulk shipping, while supply growth is expected to be 3.4% and 2.4% respectively, indicating a tightening market [8][62] - The report emphasizes the importance of the Simandou project and potential post-war reconstruction in Ukraine as key drivers for increased dry bulk shipping demand, with estimates suggesting an additional 1.3% demand growth from Ukraine's reconstruction efforts [52][54] - The report identifies key investment targets, including Haitong Development and China Merchants Energy, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated recovery in the shipping market [62][70]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of Hainan's full island customs closure is not about isolation but about creating a more open and efficient trade environment, positioning Hainan as a global trade hub similar to Singapore [2][3][8]. Group 1: Customs Policy Changes - "One line open" allows for easier import of goods and personnel from abroad, with 74% of products enjoying zero tariffs, expanding the tax categories from over 1,900 to more than 6,600 [4]. - "Two lines control" ensures that while Hainan is open to international trade, it prevents the indiscriminate flow of duty-free goods into mainland China, requiring certain goods to meet a 30% value-added condition to avoid tariffs when brought to the mainland [6]. - "Island freedom" facilitates the free flow of goods, capital, and personnel within Hainan, aiming to transform the island into an "international transit station" for global resources [6][8]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Competitive Positioning - Hainan's Yangpu Port has undergone significant upgrades, increasing the water depth from under 10 meters to 17.5 meters, allowing the largest container ships to dock directly [10][14]. - The port's automation and advanced systems enhance operational efficiency, reducing shipping times by 3 to 4 days and cutting transportation costs significantly [14]. - These improvements position Hainan to potentially replace Singapore as a key transshipment hub, with the ability to streamline international shipping routes [14]. Group 3: Economic and Industrial Development - The immediate benefits for consumers include lower prices and greater variety of imported goods, as transportation costs decrease and zero tariffs apply to many products [17]. - Hainan is focusing on emerging industries such as healthcare, deep-sea technology, commercial aerospace, and green low-carbon initiatives, with substantial progress already made in these areas [19]. - The province's R&D funding is projected to reach 10.961 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 22.1% increase from the previous year, indicating a strong commitment to technological innovation [19]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The competition between Hainan and Singapore is not a direct rivalry but rather a different approach to global trade, with Hainan leveraging policy innovation and infrastructure to create a comprehensive global hub [21]. - Hainan's customs closure is part of a broader strategy to reshape global trade dynamics, moving from a "lowland" of policy benefits to a "highland" driven by institutional innovation [23].

政策面上，12月18日，海南自由贸易港正式启动全岛封关，实施以"'一线'放开、'二线'管住、岛内自由"为基本特征的自由化便利化政策制度。 12月22日早盘，海南省国资、海南自贸港、三沙、海航系等概念板块集体走强，海南机场（600515）、中国中免（601888）、神农种业（300189）、海峡 股份（002320）等近20只个股涨停。 截至午间收盘，海南省国资、海南自贸港两大概念板块分别收涨10.01%、9.36%；海运、贸易等行业也涨幅居前，均收涨2.11%。下午开盘后相关板块继 续维持强势表现。 国泰海通证券交运首席分析师岳鑫也认为，"零关税、低税率、简税制"将加速区域经济与相关产业发展，有望拉动客货流动。 据三亚市商务局数据，封关首日全市免税销售额达1.18亿元；据海口海关统计，首日"一线"进口"零关税"享惠货物3.6亿元，主要为原油、航空器材 等，"二线"监管内销加工增值免关税货物1468.9万元，免征关税80.8万元，涉及医疗器械、药品、食品等品类。 "制度层面的降本增效将持续改善经营主体成本结构，提升货物贸易自由化与便利化水平，并增强市场活跃度。"开源证券分析师黄泽鹏表示，从消费端 看，政策红利将 ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-12-22 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《【中邮固收】生产热度下行，大宗商 品价格回落——高频数据跟踪 20251213》 - 2025.12.15 固收周报 生产热度持续下行，农产品价格升至近年高位 ——高频数据跟踪 20251220 核心观点 高频经济数据关注点：第一，生产端热度持续下行，焦炉、高炉、 沥青开工率持续下降，PX、PTA 开工率持续持平，半钢胎开工率小幅 下降。第二，商品房成交边际改善，土地供应面积季节性持续快速回 落。第三，物价边际回升，焦煤、铜、铝、螺纹钢价格上涨，原油价 格持续下降，农产品持续上行至近年来高位。第四，居民出行热度回 升，执行航班量、一线城市高峰拥堵指数均回升。短期重点关注总量 端增量政策落地及房地产市场恢复情况。 生产：焦炉、高炉、沥青开工率均持续下降 12 月 19 日当周，焦炉产能利用率下降 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" and is maintained [15] Core Insights - The report provides a forward-looking analysis of the transportation industry for Q4 2025, highlighting improvements in passenger demand and operational efficiencies across various sub-sectors [2][6] Aviation - The aviation sector is expected to see marginal demand improvements, with significant reductions in losses anticipated for Q4 2025. Domestic business demand is stabilizing, and international flights continue to perform well despite short-term disruptions from flight cancellations [6][23] Airports - Domestic airport traffic is projected to increase, with international flights also climbing. Revenue is expected to improve as a result of rising passenger volumes and operational efficiencies [7][26] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is experiencing a slowdown in growth but is improving profitability through price adjustments and a focus on high-value services. The net profit is expected to turn positive in Q4 2025 [8][29] Logistics - The logistics sector is stabilizing at the bottom of its performance cycle, with cross-border logistics showing signs of recovery. However, overall demand remains weak, leading to a slight decline in performance for major supply chain players [9][31] Maritime Transport - The maritime sector is witnessing a divergence in profitability among different vessel types. While container shipping faces pressure on earnings, oil and bulk shipping are expected to see improvements due to increased demand and operational efficiencies [10][32] Ports - Port operations are expected to benefit from improved handling of bulk goods and stable container throughput, supported by easing trade tensions and increased exports to ASEAN and EU regions [11][38] Highways - The highway sector is projected to see limited growth, with stable profitability expected as truck traffic shows slight improvements compared to the previous year [12][40] Railways - The railway sector is experiencing a split in performance, with passenger transport growth accelerating while freight transport growth is slowing down. The focus on expanding non-coal business is expected to impact profitability negatively [13][42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [9] Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing a slowdown in price increases, leading to accelerated differentiation among leading companies. The average price of express delivery in November has shown signs of recovery, while the growth rate of delivery volume has significantly decreased, driving faster market share differentiation. The report is optimistic about leading companies such as Zhongtong Express and YTO Express. Additionally, SF Express has initiated a "post-advantage" policy to optimize its product structure, with expectations of a profit rebound in Q4 [2][6][16] Logistics Sector Summary - In the logistics sector, the express delivery industry saw a price recovery in November, with the average delivery price decreasing by 8.3% year-on-year. The delivery volume growth rate fell to 5.0%, down 2.9 percentage points month-on-month. Major players like YTO, Yunda, and Shentong reported varying performance, with YTO's volume increasing by 13.6% year-on-year, while Yunda's volume decreased by 4.2% [15][16] - The average daily traffic volume for coal transport in Ganci Maodu was 1,388 vehicles, a decrease of 93 vehicles from the previous week, while the average price for short-distance transport remained stable [19] Passenger Transport Sector Summary - In the passenger transport sector, domestic passenger volume showed a 4% year-on-year increase, while international passenger volume increased by 9%. The average seat occupancy rate for domestic flights improved by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, and the same for international flights also increased by 0.8 percentage points [7][31] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in travel demand, with expectations of marginal revenue improvement due to tightening supply and significant cost improvements [7][29] Maritime Sector Summary - In the maritime sector, oil transportation rates have decreased, with the average VLCC-TCE rate dropping by 11.2% to $102,000 per day. The market is currently experiencing limited new cargo availability, leading to a cautious outlook. The SCFI index for foreign trade container shipping rose by 3.1% to 1,553 points, while the domestic container shipping index also saw an increase [8][55] - The report highlights the impact of the reopening of the Red Sea on long-distance shipping routes and suggests monitoring regional small and medium-sized shipping companies like Haifeng International due to changes in regional shipping patterns following the closure of Hainan Island [8][55]

本报讯（记者 郭剑烽）秘鲁的牛油果、蓝莓、葡萄，与中国的汽车、家电、日用品，正通过一条海上 新通道高效往来。"钱凯—上海"海运航线双向贯通一年来，已成为中秘贸易的"加速器"。记者从上海海 关获悉，一年来，航线累计实现进出口货值55.7亿元，货物吞吐量20.5万吨。在航线带动下，今年前11 个月，上海对秘鲁外贸进出口值同比增长40.3%。 "航线开通后，我们的水果出口更便捷，中小企业获得了更多机遇。"秘鲁驻上海商务领事木诺表示。据 了解，以往海运需一个多月，如今缩短至23天左右，不仅降低了企业综合成本，也让生鲜产品更快抵达 市场。 上海海关数据显示，今年前11个月，上海口岸进口秘鲁水果25.8亿元，同比增长117.4%，占全国该类进 口总量的七成以上。海关通过智慧监管系统，实现进境水果冷处理数据自动审核，进一步提升了通关效 率。 ...

新华社记者吴宇、陈杰 18日是"钱凯－上海"海运航线双向贯通一周年纪念日。秘鲁驻上海总领事馆商务参赞贝尔纳多·穆尼奥斯日前接受新华社记者专访时表 示："我给'钱凯－上海'海运航线第一年的表现打满分。" 上海海关数据显示，自去年12月18日至今年12月18日，"钱凯－上海"海运航线累计进出口货值达55.7亿元，进出口货物20.5万吨。在该航线带 动下，今年前11个月，上海对秘鲁进出口货值比去年同期大幅增长40.3%。 "目前，'钱凯－上海'海运航线已直接带动五六百家秘鲁水果企业对华出口，间接受益的种植园数量更多。我们预计，在中国及亚洲市场增长 的刺激下，秘鲁全国水果种植面积有望在今后两年内增加一倍。"贝尔纳多·穆尼奥斯说。 2024年12月18日，"新上海"轮在靠泊上海洋山港码头（无人机照片）。这是自秘鲁钱凯港开港后首个"钱凯－上海"正式航次。新华社记者 方 喆 摄 据上海海关统计，今年前11个月，上海口岸进口秘鲁水果货值达25.8亿元，同比增长117.4%，占中国同期进口秘鲁水果总货值超七成。"钱凯 －上海"海运航线单程时间为23天至25天，较非直航线路大幅缩短10多天，有助于葡萄、牛油果、蓝莓等拉美新鲜水果 ...

2025.12. 19 本文字数：555，阅读时长大约1分钟 作者 | 一财 阿驴 09:30 可控核聚变大幅高开，王子新材涨停，常辅股份高开超10%，爱科赛博、哈焊华通、雪人集 团等涨幅靠前。消息面上，特朗普媒体科技集团大涨超40%。据报道，特朗普媒体科技集团同意以 全股票交易方式与核聚变能源企业TAE科技公司合并，交易总价值超60亿美元。 09:25 A股开盘丨三大指数集体高开 沪指高开0.05%，深成指高开0.48%，创业板指高开0.89%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | s | 3878.23 | 1.86 | 0.05% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | 140 | 13116.19 | 62.21 | 0.48% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | Whi | 3134.80 | 27.74 | 0.89% | 睁大你们的双眼，握紧你们的手机！ 没错，你们催了八百遍的「实体周边」 它！终！于！来！了！ 你不是一个人在奋斗，阿驴都懂。 盘面上 ...