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专访黄群慧:推进产业基础高级化,加大新基建投资
21世纪经济报道· 2025-10-19 12:04
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan" in China, emphasizing the need for high-quality economic growth and the transformation of traditional industries while avoiding "involution" in emerging industries [1][5]. Economic Growth and Modernization - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for solidifying the foundation for achieving socialist modernization by 2035, requiring an economic growth rate of around 5% to reach the level of moderately developed countries [5]. - As a country approaches modernization, its potential economic growth rate tends to decline, necessitating higher growth expectations for the "15th Five-Year Plan" compared to the "16th Five-Year Plan" [2][5]. Technology and Industry Innovation - There is a pressing need to integrate technological innovation with industrial innovation, focusing on enhancing the modernization of industrial foundations, which includes key components, software, and materials [6]. - The article suggests increasing the proportion of basic research funding from 8% to around 12% by the end of the "15th Five-Year Plan" to enhance high-quality technological supply [6]. Traditional Industry Transformation - The "15th Five-Year Plan" requires a deep transformation of traditional industries, particularly through the empowerment of artificial intelligence, focusing on sectors like equipment manufacturing, electronic information, and energy [10]. - New infrastructure, particularly in computing power, should be prioritized to support the innovation and development of traditional industries [11]. Emerging Industry Development - The article highlights the need for a "反内卷" (anti-involution) approach in emerging industries, emphasizing the importance of directing industrial subsidies towards technological innovation rather than capacity expansion [12][13]. - It advocates for a shift from low-end capacity expansion to creating brand value and enhancing service experiences, thereby fostering a competitive edge based on quality rather than quantity [13]. Market and Regulatory Environment - The establishment of a robust market regulatory framework is essential to prevent monopolistic behaviors in the platform economy and ensure fair competition for small and medium enterprises [14]. - The article calls for a unified national market to facilitate resource integration and collaboration across regions, enhancing the overall business environment for manufacturing companies [14][15].
前三季度全区一般公共预算支出规模创历史同期新高
Guang Xi Ri Bao· 2025-10-18 02:09
记者10月17日从自治区财政厅获悉,前三季度,全区一般公共预算收入和支出分别完成1361.68亿 元、5049.48亿元,同比分别增长3.5%、8.3%,财政收支增速延续"双增长"势头,近6年来首次连续9个 月双增长。其中,支出规模历史同期首次突破5000亿元,持续巩固经济增长、民生改善的良好态势,为 全区经济社会高质量发展注入动能。 资金聚力做强"产"的支撑。聚力打造具有广西特色的现代化产业体系,统筹资金35.1亿元支持全面 推进新一轮工业振兴三年行动,推动产业优化升级、工业企业技术改造升级、先进制造业集群、新兴产 业培育等项目建设,对专精特新"小巨人"企业、国家级中小企业特色产业集群等给予重点支持,助力加 快推进新型工业化;筹措资金支持8个涉重金属污染治理项目建设,支持全区有色金属产业特别是关键 金属产业高端化、智能化、绿色化、规模化、园区化发展。 创新驱动培育"新"的动能。筹措数字广西建设资金7亿元、同比增长133.3%,支持人工智能基础能 力建设、人工智能场景应用、人工智能国际交流合作等,助力建设人工智能国际合作高地;安排创新驱 动发展专项和科技发展专项资金23.51亿元,支持推进科技创新和产业创新融 ...
专访黄群慧:推进产业基础高级化 加大新基建投资丨四中全会预热
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-10-17 15:32
Core Viewpoint - The transition from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan" marks a critical juncture for China's economic development, emphasizing the need for deep transformation of traditional industries and avoiding "involution" in emerging industries [1][2][3]. Economic Growth Requirements - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period will require higher economic growth expectations compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan," aiming for a growth rate around 5% to achieve a level comparable to that of moderately developed countries [3][4]. - Economic growth must align with high-quality development principles, addressing imbalances and inadequacies in China's development [3]. Industry Transformation - Traditional industries must undergo deep transformation, particularly through the integration of artificial intelligence, focusing on key sectors such as equipment manufacturing, electronic information, and energy [2][8]. - The construction of new infrastructure, particularly in computing power, is essential to support traditional industries' innovation and development [9]. Technology and Innovation - There is a pressing need for the integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, with a focus on enhancing the modernization of industrial foundations [4][5]. - The proportion of basic research funding in overall R&D investment should increase from 8% at the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" to around 12% by the end of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [5]. New Infrastructure Investment - Significant investment in new infrastructure is necessary, particularly in information, integration, and innovation infrastructure, to support the digital and green transformation of traditional industries [9]. - A unified national computing power trading market should be established to optimize resource allocation and pricing mechanisms [9]. Addressing Involution in Emerging Industries - The "15th Five-Year Plan" must focus on "anti-involution" strategies, emphasizing technological innovation and limiting subsidies that promote capacity expansion [10][11]. - A collaborative innovation ecosystem should be built, encouraging large state-owned enterprises and research institutions to focus on common technological challenges [11]. Market Regulation and Demand Expansion - A robust market regulation system is needed to prevent monopolistic behaviors in platform economies and ensure fair competition for small and medium enterprises [11][12]. - Expanding domestic demand through improved public services and social security systems is crucial to alleviate capacity issues in certain industries [12].
专访黄群慧:推进产业基础高级化,加大新基建投资丨四中全会预热
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-10-17 10:56
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan" in China, emphasizing the need for deep transformation of traditional industries and the avoidance of "involution" in emerging industries, while focusing on high-quality economic growth and technological innovation [1][4]. Economic Development Context - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is seen as a critical period for solidifying the foundation for achieving socialist modernization by 2035, requiring an economic growth rate of around 5% to reach the level of middle-developed countries [4]. - As a country approaches modernization, its potential economic growth rate tends to decline, necessitating higher growth expectations for the "15th Five-Year Plan" compared to the "14th" [2][4]. Technological and Industrial Innovation - There is a pressing need to integrate technological innovation with industrial innovation, focusing on enhancing the modernization of industrial foundations, which includes key components, software, and materials [5][6]. - The goal is to increase the proportion of basic research funding from 8% to around 12% of total R&D investment by the end of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [6]. Modern Industrial System Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system supported by the real economy, emphasizing advanced, digital, green, and integrated development [7]. - The integrity of the industrial system is crucial, with a focus on maintaining key manufacturing capabilities and ensuring a collaborative mechanism for orderly domestic industrial transfer [7]. Traditional Industry Transformation - Traditional industries must undergo deep transformation, particularly through the empowerment of artificial intelligence, focusing on key sectors such as equipment manufacturing and consumer goods [8][9]. - Investment in new infrastructure, particularly in computing power, is essential to support the innovation and development of traditional industries [9][10]. Emerging Industry "Anti-Involution" Strategies - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for a technology innovation mechanism that shifts enterprise behavior towards value creation, limiting subsidies for capacity expansion and encouraging innovation in standards and branding [11]. - A collaborative innovation ecosystem is encouraged, with large state-owned enterprises and research institutions focusing on key common technologies [11][12]. - The establishment of a market regulatory system is necessary to prevent monopolistic behaviors and ensure fair competition, particularly in the platform economy [12][13].
山东:前三季度外贸进出口同比增长5.5% 创历史同期新高
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-10-17 01:07
Core Viewpoint - Shandong Province's foreign trade in the first three quarters of the year reached a record high, with a total import and export value of 2.62 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.5%, surpassing the national average growth rate of 1.5% [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - In the first three quarters, Shandong's exports amounted to 1.6 trillion yuan, growing by 5.3%, while imports reached 1.02 trillion yuan, increasing by 5.8% [1] - Shandong ranked fifth nationally in foreign trade, with both exports and imports showing balanced growth, each exceeding 5% [1] - Exports have maintained growth for seven consecutive quarters, while imports have shown growth for three consecutive quarters [1] Group 2: Product Structure - The export product structure has improved, with electromechanical products seeing a 9.9% increase, contributing nearly 90% to the province's export growth [2] - Demand for consumer electronics has surged, with exports of electronic components, computers and parts, and gaming consoles growing by 20.4%, 13%, and 48.3% respectively [2] - Exports of ships and automobiles have also been strong, increasing by 58.5% and 11.9% respectively [2] - The influence of "Shandong Good Products" is rising, with self-owned brand exports growing by 10.9%, now accounting for 26.2% of total exports [2] Group 3: Agricultural and Mechanical Products - Shandong's agricultural exports reached 121.74 billion yuan, maintaining the top position nationally, while mechanical product exports totaled 779.88 billion yuan, ranking among the top five in the country [3] - Mechanical products accounted for 48.8% of total exports, contributing 4.6 percentage points to overall export growth [3] Group 4: Trade with Belt and Road Countries - Trade with Belt and Road countries reached 1.68 trillion yuan, growing by 9.2%, which is 3.7 percentage points higher than the overall provincial growth rate [3] - Intermediate goods accounted for 50.8% of exports to these countries, with a growth rate of 10.9% [3] Group 5: Private Enterprises - Private enterprises in Shandong reported a total import and export value of 1.98 trillion yuan, growing by 6.8%, which is higher than the overall provincial growth rate by 1.3 percentage points [4] - Exports and imports from private enterprises grew by 5.6% and 9% respectively, exceeding the provincial averages [4]
“月度前瞻”系列专题之四:经济前瞻:新旧力量交替期-20251014
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-14 14:16
Group 1: Economic Trends - The internal pressure on the economy is gradually emerging as the cyclical forces decline, with manufacturing and real estate investments likely to continue their downward trend[1] - Exports are expected to maintain high growth, driven by the industrialization of emerging countries and China's increased market share in emerging markets[1] - The GDP growth is projected to be 4.6% in Q3 and 4.8% in Q4 of 2025, indicating limited downward pressure on the economy[6] Group 2: Corporate Profitability - In August, industrial enterprise profits rebounded significantly by 21 percentage points to 19.8%, primarily due to low base effects and short-term factors[2] - The cost rate for industrial enterprises remains high at 85.6%, which continues to drag down profit growth[2] Group 3: Policy Impact - The transition from "old policies" to "new policies" may lead to a time lag in economic stimulation, with potential weakness in consumer goods and manufacturing investments[3] - The issuance of special government bonds has been completed, but the impact on manufacturing investment may still be negative due to demand exhaustion effects[3] Group 4: Inflation and Price Trends - Expectations for inflation support are declining, with upstream commodity price increases slowing down, which reduces the positive impact on the Producer Price Index (PPI)[5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to remain low due to high youth unemployment and increased supply of live pigs, which suppresses food prices[5]
非美需求叠加低基数,出口再超预期:——9月进出口数据点评
Huachuang Securities· 2025-10-14 07:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's exports in September continued to exceed expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%. The resilience of exports was mainly supported by the demand from non-US economies and emerging markets, low base effect, and the "anti-involution" effect on export prices. In the fourth quarter, although the rising base may suppress export readings, exports may still perform better than expected. [3][7] - China's imports in September had a year-on-year growth of 7.4%, reaching a new high for the year. The increase was mainly driven by price rises, and the import volume of some consumer goods remained weak. Attention should be paid to the improvement of import momentum after the accelerated implementation of wide - credit policies in the fourth quarter. [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Export: Strong Demand from Emerging Markets Supports Export Resilience - **Overall Export Situation**: In September, the export growth rate was +8.3%, 3.9 percentage points higher than that in August. The narrowing decline in exports to the US and the rising growth rate to non - US economies, along with the booming emerging markets, supported export resilience. [3][13] - **By Product Category** - **Consumer Goods**: The drag on consumer goods exports narrowed slightly but remained at a low level. In September, the year - on - year decline of four categories of consumer goods (clothing, shoes, bags, and toys) was - 12.7%, a 0.6 - percentage - point improvement from August. Price was still the main drag, with shoes and bags having year - on - year declines of - 13.0% and - 14.1% respectively. [15] - **Intermediate Goods**: The export of intermediate goods accelerated, significantly driving exports. In September, the combined year - on - year growth of five categories of intermediate goods (plastic products, steel, aluminum, integrated circuits, and general equipment) was +21.0% (compared to +12.3% in August), driving export growth by 2.4 percentage points. [18] - **Electronic Products**: Due to the low base, the drag of electronic products on exports significantly narrowed. In September, the combined year - on - year decline of mobile phones and laptops was - 1.0% (compared to - 8.1% in August), and the drag on exports narrowed to - 0.1%, the best performance since April. [23] - **Automobiles**: The contribution of automobiles declined slightly. In September, the year - on - year growth of automobile (including chassis) export value was +10.9%, a 6.5 - percentage - point decline from August, and the driving rate of export growth dropped to 0.4%. [23] - **By Country** - **Developed Economies**: In September, the decline in exports to the US narrowed slightly, with a year - on - year decline of - 27.0%, and its share in exports rose to 10.4%. The growth rate of exports to the EU continued to rise, reaching +14.2%. [24] - **Emerging Markets**: Exports to ASEAN slowed down, with a year - on - year growth of +15.6%, a 7 - percentage - point decline from the previous month, but still at a relatively high historical level. Exports to Latin America were remarkable, with the year - on - year growth turning positive to +15.2%, the highest since May. [24] 3.2 Import: Significantly Driven by Price, with the Growth Rate Reaching a New High for the Year - **Overall Import Situation**: In September, the import amount had a year - on - year growth of 7.4%, a 6.1 - percentage - point increase from August, reaching a new high for the year. The month - on - month growth was +8.5%, significantly higher than the usual 2% in the same period. Price increases were the main driver, while the import volume of some commodities remained weak, indicating that domestic demand still needed to be boosted by wide - credit policies. [29] - **By Product Category** - **Upstream Bulk Commodities**: The decline in imports of upstream bulk commodities significantly narrowed. In September, the combined year - on - year decline of five categories of upstream bulk commodities (iron ore, copper ore, coal and lignite, crude oil, and refined oil) was - 1.6%, the best performance this year, 10.5 percentage points narrower than in August. [30] - **Intermediate Goods**: The import of intermediate goods accelerated. The combined year - on - year growth of four categories of intermediate goods (primary plastics, copper materials, diodes, and integrated circuits) was +11.6%, a 6.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, also at a new high for the year. [30] - **Downstream Consumer Goods**: The decline in downstream consumer goods narrowed to single - digits for the first time. The combined year - on - year decline of three categories of consumer goods (medical materials and drugs, cosmetics, and automobiles) was - 9.9% (compared to - 25.1% previously), dragging down imports by - 0.2%. [30]
七部门联合推动服务型制造创新发展 到2028年,打造50个领军品牌,建设100个创新发展高地
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-10-12 22:01
Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments have jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Deepening the Innovation and Development of Service-Oriented Manufacturing (2025-2028)", aiming to enhance the role of service-oriented manufacturing in high-quality development by 2028 [1] Group 1: Objectives and Tasks - The plan aims to complete 20 standard formulations, create 50 leading brands, and establish 100 innovation development hubs by 2028 [1] - It identifies seven main tasks and three special actions to promote the innovation and development of service-oriented manufacturing [1] Group 2: Challenges and Solutions - Current challenges in service-oriented manufacturing include weak supply capacity of key technologies, an incomplete standard system, uneven application of typical models across industries, and difficulties in statistical monitoring [1] - The plan proposes to strengthen technological innovation by focusing on key common technology breakthroughs and model innovations, and to publish a list of key common technologies for service-oriented manufacturing [1] Group 3: Support for Productive Services - The plan emphasizes the need to cultivate and expand key productive service industries, including technology services, industrial design, software and information services, productive financial services, intellectual property services, energy-saving and environmental protection services, and quality management services [2] - It aims to promote the application of service-oriented manufacturing models across various sectors, including raw materials, equipment manufacturing, electronics, and consumer goods [2] Group 4: Infrastructure and Technology Integration - The plan calls for strengthening new information infrastructure, deepening the integration of "5G + Industrial Internet", and enhancing the supply of industrial data elements [2] - It also emphasizes the integration of artificial intelligence technology with service-oriented manufacturing to foster innovation [2] Group 5: Brand and Platform Development - The plan includes actions to enhance shared manufacturing, develop shared manufacturing platforms and factories, and promote resource sharing in inspection and testing [3] - It aims to cultivate leading enterprises and brands in service-oriented manufacturing, along with strengthening brand evaluation and promotion [3] Group 6: Policy Support and Implementation - The plan requires robust policy support to ensure the implementation of related initiatives, including incorporating key common technology breakthroughs into the scope of technical transformation support [3] - It encourages local governments to increase support for manufacturing enterprises' service businesses and guides financial institutions to enhance financial services based on market principles [3]
七部门发文推动服务深度嵌入制造业,涉及装备制造、消费品等行业
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-10-11 12:14
(原标题:七部门发文推动服务深度嵌入制造业,涉及装备制造、消费品等行业) (资料图) 21世纪经济报道记者 周潇枭 见习记者 冉黎黎 北京报道 10月11日,工业和信息化部、人力资源社会保 障部、商务部、市场监管总局、国家统计局、国家知识产权局、中国工程院等七部门联合印发《深入推 动服务型制造创新发展实施方案(2025—2028年)》(以下简称《实施方案》)。 服务型制造是以客户需求为导向、以数智技术为支撑,通过创新优化生产组织形态、运营管理方式和商 业发展模式,将服务深度嵌入制造业产品全生命周期和各环节,延伸产业链、重塑价值链、构建新生 态,实现制造与服务融合发展的新型产业形态。 《实施方案》提出目标,到2028年,服务型制造在制造业高质量发展中的作用进一步增强。完成20项标 准制定,打造50个领军品牌,建设100个创新发展高地,服务型制造典型模式广泛普及、新模式不断涌 现,产业生态持续优化,重点领域生产性服务业保持快速发展,制造与服务全方位、宽领域、深层次融 合发展格局进一步完善,有力促进制造业优化资源配置、拓展发展新空间、延伸产业链、提升价值链, 为建成具有中国特色、世界水平的服务型制造体系奠定坚实基础 ...
Trump’s 100% tariff on China threatens new supply chain shock
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-10 23:44
President Donald Trump announced Friday that the U.S. could impose tariffs of up to 100% on imports from China by Nov. 1, marking an escalation in the U.S.–China trade conflict and raising uncertainty across global supply chains. In a Truth Social post Friday, Trump said the tariffs were retaliation for China’s new export controls announced a day earlier on rare earth minerals and related technologies. Many U.S. companies that rely on Chinese manufacturing could face soaring costs and shipment delays as ...