来源：中国能源网 上周行情回顾 过去一周（12.01–12.07）主要指数涨跌幅情况：申万建筑材料行业指数（+1.55%），上证指数 （+0.37%），深证成指（+1.26%），创业板指（+1.86%），沪深300（+1.28%）。在申万31个一级子 行业指数中，建筑材料涨跌幅排名居第9位。 风险提示： 水泥：11月北方逐步进入采暖季，错峰生产政策将推动供给收缩，价格有望迎来阶段性上涨，同时短期 由于部分项目抢工，需求阶段性提升。整体来看，基建端整体受到天气干扰、需求释放节奏等因素影 响，其对需求并未完全显现，房建端，需求端仍然处于弱复苏态势。从中期维度来看，水泥行业产能有 望在限制超产政策下产能持续下降，产能利用率从而大幅提升带来利润弹性。关注：海螺水泥、华新建 材。 玻璃：行业需求端在地产影响下25年呈现需求持续下行态势。短期来看，需求传统旺季订单改善力度一 般仍承压，中间商库存相对较高。目前行业供需矛盾仍存，下游终端需求改善有限。供给端，考虑到目 前浮法玻璃行业中大部分企业已能达到环保要求，我们判断反内卷政策不会产生一刀切式产能出清，但 仍会提升环保要求及成本，加速行业的冷修进度。后续持续关注政策变化的 ...

发布时间：2025-12-08 行业投资评级 证券研究报告：建筑材料|行业周报 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 5252.51 | | 52 周最高 | 5417.39 | | 52 周最低 | 4167.51 | 行业相对指数表现 -11% -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 2024-12 2025-02 2025-05 2025-07 2025-09 2025-12 建筑材料 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:赵洋 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050002 Email:zhaoyang@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《"反内卷"下拐点渐显，关注出海及 转型机遇》 - 2025.11.26 建材行业报告 （2025.12.01-2025.12.07） 需求逐步进入淡季，期待地产及化债政策落地 投资要点 12 月 2 日，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁在《党建》杂志发布《深 入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神，以高质量发展新成效谱写中国 式现代化新篇章》署名文章。文章中提到要提高防范化 ...

2025 年钾肥市场维持紧平衡态势。最新签订的大合同价格为每吨 348 美元， 比去年上涨 3 美元。这一价格奠定了 2026 年的价格中枢，预计明年整体钾肥 价格将继续保持紧张态势。短期来看，氯化钾库存较低，截至 11 月底库存约 为 230 万吨，同比下降 25%，远低于 400 万吨的历史安全线。此外，港口新 到货有限，加上国内企业进入冬季检修期，产量环比持续下降，供给端偏紧。 北方冬储备货启动、复合肥企业开工率回升，使得短期供需强劲。中长期来看， 全球钾肥增量有限，仅老挝几家中企有新增产能，而需求在人口增长和粮食安 动力煤价格回调至 791 元/吨，产地价格指数下降。电厂补库充足，日 耗水平较低，非电企业按需采购。部分煤矿进入检修期，产量受限。煤 炭企业面临浮动长期定价机制和长协性价比不足的挑战。 30 个重点城市房地产成交环比持平，去化率持续下降。部分头部房企面 临流动性风险。核心城市二手房价格下降，新房销售压力增加。地产股 波动更多来自政策预期，年底前是较好的交易时间节点，关注超跌央企 和经营质量改善的企业。 全战略推动下稳定增长，因此明年全球市场仍将偏紧。 周期演绎到了什么阶段？20251207 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is transitioning towards a "spring rally" with potential catalysts emerging, particularly as the year-end approaches and new policies are anticipated [2][13]. Group 1: Market Trends and Strategies - The strategy for 2026 emphasizes embracing "Galloping Assets" which are global competitive leaders, indicating a shift towards value reassessment [1][12]. - The A-share market has shown a recovery with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 10% to above 3800 points [1][12]. - The current market phase is characterized by a period of observation and consolidation, with the potential for a spring rally to begin as early as December [2][13]. Group 2: Spring Rally Insights - The "spring rally" is expected to occur around the Lunar New Year, typically 1-2 weeks prior, with historical data suggesting a strong upward trend during this period [3][5]. - The likelihood of a spring rally varies based on market conditions: high during bottom-stimulus periods, moderate during continuation phases, and limited during downturns [4][6]. - Key indicators for the timing of the rally include significant new positive or negative developments, with potential early triggers in December [6][10]. Group 3: Sector and Style Preferences - The market favors smaller-cap indices like CSI 1000 and CSI 2000, which have shown a nearly 90% success rate with an average excess return of over 4% [6][19]. - Growth and technology sectors are highlighted as having an 80% success rate, also with an average excess return of over 4% [7][19]. - The top-performing industries are expected to be in the first tier: computer, communication, and electronics, with a second tier including machinery, chemicals, and military industries, all showing excess returns of over 3% [8][19]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Directions - The focus for long-term investments includes quality cyclical stocks benefiting from policy expectations in sectors like real estate, consumer goods, and resources [10][20]. - The strategy for the upcoming year includes a focus on "Galloping Assets" that align with China's economic transformation and global competition, particularly in technology, high-end manufacturing, consumption, and resource sectors [10][20].

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials industry, emphasizing the potential for growth driven by fire safety demand following recent incidents [4][6]. Group 1: Cement Industry - Cement prices have shown fluctuations, with some regions experiencing price declines while others, particularly in the south, are seeing price increases due to environmental pressures [6]. - The average number of days for staggered production among cement companies in China increased by 15 days year-on-year to 177 days in 2025, indicating a tightening supply [6]. - Long-term demand for cement is expected to stabilize, with a focus on supply-side reforms aimed at capacity control and carbon emission restrictions [6]. - The report highlights significant growth potential in overseas markets, particularly in Africa and Central Asia, where demand is driven by population growth and infrastructure needs [6]. - Companies like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement are recommended for their high dividend yield and potential for overseas revenue growth [6]. Group 2: Consumer Building Materials - The demand for fireproof materials and equipment is anticipated to rise, particularly following fire safety inspections mandated by authorities [6]. - The report outlines the classification of building materials based on combustion performance, with a focus on non-combustible and fire-resistant materials [6]. - Companies in the fire safety sector, such as Qingniao Fire Protection, are expected to benefit from increased demand for equipment upgrades and stricter regulations [6]. - The report notes that the domestic household fire safety market is poised for rapid growth, supported by increasing awareness and regulatory developments [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The overall fundamentals and performance of the building materials sector have shown signs of recovery [2]. - The real estate market is currently under pressure, with significant declines in sales and prices, but there is potential for policy support to stabilize the market [5][26]. - The industry is transitioning from a focus on high leverage and turnover to an emphasis on quality, service, and sustainability, with urban renewal expected to unlock potential [5][26]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector Overview - As of October 2025, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,268 CNY/sqm, down 0.84% month-on-month and 7.60% year-on-year [5][26]. - New residential properties averaged 16,973 CNY/sqm, up 0.28% month-on-month and 2.67% year-on-year [5][26]. - Cumulative sales area of commercial housing fell by 6.8% year-on-year, with a 9.6% decline in sales value [5][26]. - The industry is in a "bottoming" phase, with expectations for policy measures to support recovery [5][26]. Building Materials Sector Overview - The cement industry is now included in the national carbon market, with companies over 2.6 million tons of CO₂ equivalent subject to quota management [5][45]. - The overall revenue of the cement industry is under pressure, but profitability is improving, particularly for leading companies [5][45]. - The glass and fiberglass sectors are experiencing structural recovery, with supply constraints expected to improve competition in the long term [5][46]. - The building materials sector is currently at historical low valuations, with some stocks offering attractive dividend yields [5][45]. Recommendations - For the real estate sector, companies such as Poly Developments (600048), Binjiang Group (002244), and China Merchants Shekou (001979) are favored due to their stable operations and focus on first- and second-tier cities [5][26]. - In the building materials sector, companies like Conch Cement (600585), Taipai Group (002233), and Huaxin Cement (600801) are recommended for their strong fundamentals and high dividend yields [5][45]. - For glass fiber, China Jushi (600176) is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity due to its recovery in profitability [5][46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the building materials industry [12]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights an increase in expectations regarding real estate policies, suggesting a focus on high-quality consumer building materials leaders. The industry is experiencing intensified downward pressure, but the anticipated policy tools aim to reduce housing burdens, which could support residential demand [6][9]. - The report recommends focusing on quality leaders in consumer building materials, such as SanKeTree, TuBaoBao, and WeiXing New Materials, as they possess bottom value and are expected to benefit from policy changes and operational turning points [6][9]. - The report notes a slight decline in cement prices and a shift in glass inventory from decrease to increase, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [7][8]. Summary by Sections Basic Situation - Cement prices have slightly decreased, with a national average of 355.65 yuan/ton, down 1.45 yuan/ton week-on-week and down 76.77 yuan/ton year-on-year. The cement output rate is approximately 45.5%, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point decrease [24][32]. - The glass market is operating weakly, with a national average price of 61.55 yuan per weight box, down 1.84 yuan per weight box week-on-week and down 15.22 yuan year-on-year. The inventory of glass has increased, indicating pressure on the market [38][40]. Recommendations - The report continues to recommend investments in the African supply chain and existing supply chain leaders, highlighting companies like Huaxin Cement and Keda Manufacturing as key players benefiting from demand recovery and structural optimization [9]. - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on quality leaders in the consumer building materials sector, particularly those with strong business models and growth potential, such as SanKeTree and TuBaoBao [9]. Market Trends - The report indicates that the downward slope of the industry is increasing, with a focus on the expected rise in real estate policies. The core reasons for the pressure on housing prices in major cities are linked to income and inflation expectations, as well as the rental-to-sale ratio being inverted with mortgage rates [6][9].

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry is expected to see structural opportunities by 2026, driven by policies and market conditions, with three main growth engines: new energy, electronics, and computing power [1] Summary by Sections 2025 Review - The construction materials index and fundamentals showed signs of recovery, with the SW construction materials index increasing by 21.37% from the beginning of the year to November 12, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.30 percentage points [2] - Sub-industry performance was mixed, with the fiberglass manufacturing sector leading gains due to the AI computing power boom [2] - Despite a slight revenue decline of 5.74% year-on-year, the industry saw a significant profit improvement, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 21.46% [2] 2026 Outlook - Structural investment opportunities in the construction materials industry are expected to emerge due to intensified policy regulation and sustained high demand in emerging sectors [3] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to reshape the competitive landscape in traditional materials like cement and glass, improving supply-demand dynamics and gradually restoring industry profitability [3] - The growth of new energy, electronics, and computing sectors will benefit leading companies with technological barriers and production capabilities, particularly in high-performance fiberglass [3] - The demand for renovation and urban renewal in the real estate sector will favor consumer building material leaders with strong channel layouts, brands, and product quality [3] Sub-industry Outlook - **Cement**: Supply regulation effects are expected to improve profitability, with major projects supporting future demand and leading companies expanding into overseas markets [4] - **Fiberglass**: Continued high demand from the wind power and electric vehicle sectors is expected to support sales, with AI computing needs driving fiberglass demand [4] - **Consumer Building Materials**: Urban renewal is likely to boost demand for renovation and repair, while consumption upgrades will increase the demand for high-quality green materials [4] - **Glass**: Prices remain under pressure, but the "anti-involution" policy may help ease supply-demand imbalances [4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on three investment themes: 1. Traditional building materials benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, with recommended companies including Huaxin Cement, Shangfeng Cement, and Conch Cement [4] 2. Emerging sectors with sustained high demand, recommending companies like China Jushi and China National Building Material [4] 3. Consumer building material leaders with strong retail channel layouts, recommending companies such as Oriental Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, Sankeshu, and Tubao [4]

Group 1: Construction Materials Sector - The construction materials sector is currently at a low point in terms of profitability, valuation, and holdings, but some leading companies have begun to recover from this bottom, with expectations of a revival in consumer building materials driven by policy support [1] - Despite the basic fundamentals still being on the downside, the sector has experienced a four-year decline, and the supply clearing and transformation of revenue structures are benefiting some leading companies, which are showing signs of stabilization in operations [1] - The report highlights strong operational resilience among leading companies in the consumer building materials segment, with a stable long-term demand and an improving competitive landscape, indicating significant growth potential for quality leaders [1] Group 2: Cement Market - The national average price of cement has slightly decreased by 0.4% week-on-week, with the current price at 351 RMB/ton, reflecting a year-on-year drop of 77.67 RMB/ton [2] - The national cement shipment rate stands at 45.73%, showing a week-on-week decline of 0.47% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.40 percentage points [2] - The industry valuation remains at historical low levels, with a focus on companies such as Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and others [2] Group 3: Glass Market - The price of float glass has weakened, with the average price at 1154 RMB/ton, down 2.8% week-on-week and 20.6% year-on-year [3] - Inventory levels have increased, with stock days rising to 30.36 days, indicating a growing supply [3] - Leading glass companies are currently undervalued, with attention on firms like Xinyi Glass and others [3] Group 4: Fiberglass and Composite Materials - The market price for fiberglass yarn has shown slight fluctuations, with mainstream transaction prices for 2400tex yarn ranging from 3250 to 3700 RMB/ton, reflecting a 0.2% increase week-on-week [4] - Electronic yarn prices have remained stable, with G75 mainstream quotes between 8800 and 9300 RMB/ton [4] - Leading companies in the fiberglass and composite materials sector are well-positioned, with a focus on firms like China Jushi and others [4]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Coal Industry**: High prices for thermal coal are expected to persist due to increased demand for inventory replenishment in power plants, with national and coastal inventories rising. The anticipated cold winter and increased electricity consumption are likely to support strong coal prices, giving thermal power companies an advantage in year-end long-term contract negotiations [1][2][7]. - **Construction Materials Industry**: Domestic demand for construction materials is declining, prompting companies to pursue overseas expansion as a key strategy. While global cement demand has decreased, excluding China, there has been slight growth. Companies like Huaxin Cement and Western Cement are achieving performance growth through overseas operations [1][3][4]. - **Silicone Industry**: The silicone industry is experiencing a potential turning point with significant price increases following a 30% production cut announced by the industry association. The price of silicone has risen to 13,100 RMB/ton, indicating substantial upward potential as demand from sectors like renewable energy and electronics grows [5][6]. Key Points and Arguments - **Thermal Coal Market**: The price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal remains stable at 827 RMB/ton, with expectations of price increases as demand from power plants rises. The natural gas sector is also expected to see increased production and demand as winter approaches [2][7]. - **Cement and Construction Materials**: The global cement market is projected to see a slight increase in sales in 2025, with significant price differences between domestic and international markets. Companies are focusing on mergers and acquisitions to enhance competitiveness and expand their market presence overseas [3][4]. - **Silicone Industry Dynamics**: The demand for silicone is expected to grow significantly, with a 19.6% year-on-year increase in apparent demand from January to September 2025. The supply side is constrained, with no new capacity additions, which may lead to improved supply-demand balance in 2026 [5][6]. Additional Important Insights - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate sector is under significant downward pressure, with sales and investment growth rates declining sharply. There is an expectation of further policy adjustments to address these challenges, but the effectiveness of such measures remains uncertain [8][10][11]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Despite the challenges in the real estate market, there are perceived investment opportunities in low-priced stocks and defensive sectors. The current low stock prices and rising policy expectations suggest a strong relative return potential [12][13]. - **Impact of Interest Rate Policies**: Adjustments in interest rates are expected to have limited effects on the real estate market, particularly in core cities where supply-demand imbalances persist. The market is currently in a phase of policy negotiation, with high-priced sectors likely facing downward pressure [12][13].