英伟达产业链观点更新 20251228 摘要 国产替代加速：国内设备厂商能力提升，合作范围扩大，推动半导体设 备如量检测、涂胶显影及空白掩模板等领域的国产替代率显著提高，尤 其在半导体级别应用中潜力巨大。 算力需求激增：下游应用如手机、智能终端推动算力需求，液冷、电源 系统等配套设施成为关键。太空算力、新型电源结构等新兴途径为中国 在 AI 领域提供竞争优势。 海外算力产业链催化：2026 年第一季度海外算力产业链将迎来多重催 化，英伟达 COWS 流片产能预计 2026 年增长 60%-70%，2027 年增 长 50%-60%，谷歌 TPU 出货量预计 2027 年接近千万级别，同比增长 近 100%。 中际旭创盈利预测：市场预期中际旭创 2026 年利润约为 350 亿至 400 亿人民币，若英伟达和谷歌在 2027 年保持高速增长，其利润可能翻倍 至 700 亿至 800 亿人民币，估值有望达到 1 万亿至 1.2 万亿元。 大模型关注焦点：市场关注 OpenAI 的 GPT 和 XAI 的 Grok 大模型，若 基于 B 系列芯片训练的大模型在 2026 年发布后表现超预期，将验证 Scaling ...

解读此轮 PCB 钻针、液冷、发电行情及后市展望 20251228 摘要 PCB 钻针市场需求旺盛，价格坚挺，技术创新加速，Q 布等新材料应用 推动价格调整。鼎泰高科等企业积极扩充产能，应对市场需求，并计划 通过港股上市进一步提升产能。 2025 年 PCB 行业呈现寡头竞争格局，中国市场由鼎泰和荆州主导。各 公司通过产品结构升级推动 ASP 提升，而非统一调价。钨价上涨对成本 构成影响，鼎泰高科已开始与中小客户进行涨价谈判。 液冷板块迎来第二波行情，GB300 全液冷方案将使市场空间达到今年的 五倍。谷歌第七代 GPU 采用全液冷方案，需求增加，大型科技公司开始 在国内审厂并下订单。 珠三角制造业向 AI 转型，多家企业通过并购整合液冷产业链，如春秋电 子收购 STAC，中石收购迅冷，领益收购利敏达，加速产业整合与扩张。 思泉新材在台湾测试设备领域绑定独供，受益于英伟达份额落地，预计 明年测试冷板市场规模可观。同时，作为阿里链条中进展最快的柜内柜 间液冷模组供应商，有望实现显著放量。 Q&A 2025 年 PCB 钻针行业的主要发展情况和未来展望如何？ 2025 年，PCB 钻针行业经历了显著的发展，特别是 ...

大盘走出8连阳，周五放量收阳十字星，盘中出现跳水，收盘3963.68点，成交21601亿，外资继续休息。板块上海南自贸区，小金属等表现较强，次新， 消费电子，能源系列等表现较差。个股跌多涨少。 | स्टेसि | 开始时间 | 结束时间 | 天数 | 春季躁动收益率 全年收益率 | | 日均涨幅 | 期间指数走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2010 | 2010/2/8 | 2010/4/14 | 42 | 9.78% | - 6 8 | 0.23% | | | 2011 | 2011/1/25 | 2011/4/18 | રૂડે | 14.32% | -22.42% | 0.27% | | | 2012 | 2012/1/6 | 2012/3/2 | 36 | 15.20% | 4.68% | 0.42% | | | 2013 | 2012/12/4 | 2013/2/8 | 46 | 25.20% | 5.44% | 0.55R | | | 2014 | 2014/1/14 | 2014/2/19 | 22 | 9.60 ...

Group 1 - The market sentiment is positive, with the North Exchange 50 Index rising by 1.19% and a total of 76 stocks increasing in value, while 209 stocks declined, resulting in a rise-fall ratio of 0.36 [2][8][30] - Key market themes include commercial aerospace, Hainan's "closure" theme, liquid cooling, rising lithium battery material prices, and record copper prices, indicating active thematic investments in future industries such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, and nuclear fusion [8][9][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of timing in thematic investments, particularly in the context of the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" and suggests focusing on North Exchange stocks related to future industries [9][10] Group 2 - The North Exchange's new stock quality is expected to improve, with attention on changes in new stock allocation policies for 2026 and upcoming listings, including Wei Dongguang [10][21][27] - This week, one new stock, Jiangtian Technology, was listed with a first-day increase of 180.58%, bringing the total number of listed companies on the North Exchange to 287 [21][27] - The report highlights the potential for significant returns from low-valuation stocks such as Tongli Co., KAIT Co., and others, as new funds are expected to return in early 2026 [10][12][40]

Core Insights - In December, 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs, primarily in the communication, non-ferrous metals, and military (aerospace) sectors, indicating strong market consensus on these areas [2][11] - Established sectors like communication and non-ferrous metals are seen as core investment themes, while emerging sectors such as commercial aerospace are gaining traction amid market volatility [1][3] Group 1: Performance of ETFs - The communication ETFs saw an average increase of 10% since October, with an annual average increase of 91.5% [2][12] - Non-ferrous metal ETFs experienced an average increase of 20.1% since October, with an annual average increase of 95.2% [2][12] - Military and aerospace ETFs had an average increase of 18.7% since October, with satellite ETFs rising by an average of 34.5% [2][12] Group 2: Emerging Investment Themes - Commercial aerospace is viewed as an active investment choice during market fluctuations, similar to previous low-altitude themes, driven by narratives around US-China space infrastructure competition [3][4] - The commercial aerospace sector, while promising, does not match the scale of humanoid robotics or low-altitude economies, indicating a more modest growth potential [4][14] Group 3: Under-the-Radar Sectors - Sectors like chemicals and engineering machinery are quietly rising and have reached new annual highs, reflecting China's manufacturing competitiveness and pricing power [5][15] - These sectors are characterized by low media attention and fragmented industry discussions, making them susceptible to being overlooked despite their potential for profit margin improvement [5][15] Group 4: Anti-Inflation Trends - Sectors related to anti-inflation, such as new energy and steel, are showing signs of recovery, with market sensitivity to supply dynamics increasing [6][16] - Recent supply chain disruptions in the new energy sector have led to positive stock price reactions, indicating market expectations for tangible supply reductions [6][16] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The current market strategy emphasizes structural opportunities in a volatile market, focusing on sectors with low heat and concentration but increasing attention and potential for long-term ROE improvement, such as chemicals, engineering machinery, and new energy [7][17] - The strategy also includes monitoring the trend of RMB appreciation, with sectors like brokerage and insurance being positioned as both offensive and defensive choices [7][17]

Group 1 - The market sentiment is positive, with the North Exchange 50 index rising by 1.19% and the trading volume decreasing by 11.69% compared to the previous week [2][12][16] - Key market themes include commercial aerospace, Hainan "closure" theme, liquid cooling, lithium battery material price increases, and rising copper prices, indicating active thematic investments in future industries such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communication [12][13][14] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the North Exchange thematic market during the spring rally, emphasizing the importance of timing in thematic investments and highlighting specific stocks to watch, including Fujida, Xingtou Measurement and Control, and others in emerging technology sectors [13][14] Group 2 - The North Exchange saw one new stock listed this week, Jiangtian Technology, which had a significant first-day increase of 180.58% [26][7] - The report notes that the quality of new stocks on the North Exchange is expected to continue improving, with attention on the upcoming listing of Hengtong Light [14][26] - The new three-board market saw 10 new listings and 42 delistings this week, with a total of 5,956 companies currently listed [47][49]

行业人士介绍，从技术演进来看，液冷已进入规模化应用的关键节点。在英伟达体系中，2025年搭载372卡及以上的整机柜服务器已100%配置液冷，标志着 液冷技术从"可选"正式变为"必选"。与此同时，Meta、谷歌、亚马逊等科技巨头同样加速液冷布局，其中Meta2025年推出的产品基本以整机柜形式出货，液 冷渗透率预计达到100%，谷歌、亚马逊的自研芯片下一代产品也将全面采用液冷架构。 "随着英伟达GB300放量及后续Vera Rubin平台的加速落地，液冷产业正经历关键的阶段转换：从以概念和预期验证为主导的'第一发展阶段'，进入以订单确 认、产能落地和业绩兑现为核心的'第二发展阶段'。"国盛证券通信行业首席分析师宋嘉吉表示。 新华财经上海12月26日电（谈瑞 周子涵） AI产业链的热度持续蔓延至细分赛道。截至12月25日收盘，新华出海制造指数成份股快克智能（603203）股价报 收37.48元，周内累计上涨22.89%，大幅跑赢同期工控设备相关指数。 这家以精密制造设备为核心业务的企业，股价强势表现的背后，是液冷产业的加速崛起与中国企业在全球赛道上的突围进程。作为AI服务器散热的核心解 决方案，液冷技术正从"可选 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current market sentiment score is 82, categorizing it as "overheated," suggesting a high level of investor optimism and potential market risks [5][8][20] - Key themes identified include liquid cooling technology, banking stocks, and brokerage firms, each showing distinct investment opportunities [5] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment temperature indicator shows a score of 82, indicating an "overheated" market, which may lead to resistance as historical trends suggest that scores above 70 can create market pressure [5][8] - A cautious approach is recommended as the market enters a consolidation phase, with support expected when sentiment drops below 30 [8] Sector Analysis Liquid Cooling Theme - Liquid cooling technology is gaining traction due to its efficiency and lower Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE), becoming a mainstream solution for data centers [5] - Major AI companies, including NVIDIA and Google, are adopting this technology, with Google increasing its TPU chip shipment target by 50% to 6 million units by 2026 [5] - Related stocks include Invec (002837) and Feilong Co., Ltd. (002536) [5] Banking Sector - Banking stocks are highlighted for their high dividend yields, with the China Securities Banking Index yielding 6.02%, significantly above the 10-year government bond yield [5] - In a slowing economy with increased market volatility, banking stocks are seen as stable investment options for long-term funds [5] - Key banking stocks include Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Ningbo Bank (002142) [5] Brokerage Sector - The report discusses regulatory changes proposed by the China Securities Regulatory Commission aimed at enhancing the quality of development in the brokerage sector [5] - The focus is shifting from scale and speed to quality, with an emphasis on risk management and capital efficiency [5] - Notable brokerage firms mentioned include CITIC Securities (600030) and Guotai Junan Securities (601211) [5]

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 85, indicating an "overheated" market condition, which suggests a high level of investor optimism [6][9][21] - Historical trends show that when the sentiment score is below or close to 30, the market tends to find support, while scores above 70 indicate potential resistance [9] Hot Themes Tracking - **Liquid Cooling Theme**: Liquid cooling solutions are becoming mainstream in data centers due to their higher cooling efficiency and lower PUE. Major AI companies like NVIDIA and Google are accelerating the adoption of this technology, with Google increasing its TPU chip shipment target by 50% to 6 million units by 2026. Related stocks include Yingwei Technology (002837) and Feilong Co., Ltd. (002536) [6] - **Banking Theme**: Bank stocks are characterized by high dividend yields, with the China Securities Bank Index yielding 6.02%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield. In a slowing economy with increased market volatility, bank stocks are becoming important investment targets for long-term funds like insurance and social security. Related stocks include Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Ningbo Bank (002142) [6] - **Brokerage Theme**: The chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the need for differentiated regulation and support for quality institutions. The focus is shifting from scale and speed to high-quality development, encouraging smaller firms to differentiate their operations. Related stocks include CITIC Securities (600030) and Guotai Junan Securities (601211) [6] Capital Flow Analysis - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflow include Demingli (001309.SZ) with a net inflow of 955.33 million, and Tianji Co., Ltd. (002759.SZ) with 884.72 million [10] - The top ten stocks with the highest net outflow include Xinyi Sheng (300502.SZ) with a net outflow of -927.80 million, and Shenghong Technology (300476.SZ) with -438.13 million [12] - The top ten industries with the highest net inflow include the electronics sector with 236.04 million, and the non-ferrous metals sector with 140.84 million [19] Investment Strategy Recommendations - In an "overheated" market, it is advisable to consider reducing positions to avoid buying at market peaks and to be cautious of potential market bubbles [21] - The report suggests that during periods of high market sentiment, investors should be vigilant and may need to adjust their strategies accordingly to mitigate risks associated with overvaluation [21]

通信- 当前时点还有哪些标的可以配置？20151223 摘要 AI 算力板块受益于宏观环境和季节性因素，光模块行业弹性巨大，尤其 关注 800G 到 1.6T 的价格弹性以及 GB300 到 LOBIN 的配比提升，是 AI 算力细分领域中增长潜力最大的方向。 AI 并非泡沫，与 2000 年互联网泡沫相比，AI 替代的是人类工具，市场 空间更大。AI 用户增长速度快于当年互联网，OpenAI 等公司收入迅速 增长，且 GPU 利用率高，未见成本非线性下降或需求坍塌风险。 液冷产业趋势确立，鼎通科技获英伟达液冷订单，预计 2026 年液冷方 案产值达 4 亿元，实现 1.5 亿元利润。英维克受益于 Meta 全液冷链条 突破，2026 年业绩预期上修至 13-15 亿元，与谷歌合作进展良好。 中际旭创已进入 1.6T 规模交付阶段，凭借上游芯片、光源等环节优势， 稳住交付能力并提升毛利率，预计 2026 年业绩至少达到 350 亿左右。 新易盛受益于 AI 集群高速以太网渗透加速，订单和出货节奏增强，未来 几年内业绩有望达到 250 亿以上。 天孚通信深度绑定英伟达，在 800G 向 1.6T 切换过程中份额 ...