1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward potential of coking coal and coke before the Spring Festival is expected to be a weak rebound. Recent price fluctuations are mainly influenced by news rather than fundamental factors, and the sustainability of these fluctuations is questionable. - The current market trading logic focuses on several aspects: the multi - short game near the delivery date, the topic of anti - involution in the coal industry, and the expected tightening of imported coal supply, though the authenticity of the latter has not been confirmed. - Given the current supply - demand imbalance and the limited driving force of the winter storage replenishment market, sentiment can amplify price fluctuations. It is advisable to consider gradually closing out the previous 1 - 5 inverse spreads [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Weekly Outlook 3.1.1 Supply - Some domestic coal mines have reduced production and carried out maintenance after completing their annual production tasks, leading to a significant short - term decline in output. Pit - mouth coal prices are supported by strong sentiment. The market trading atmosphere is cautious, with low speculative purchasing by traders and only rigid demand from end - users. High - priced coking coal resources face significant resistance in transactions. - In terms of imports, port trading enterprises are experiencing poor sales, and downstream market inquiries are weak. There are still expectations of price cuts in the domestic coking coal and coke market. However, the Ganqimaodu port continues to operate at a high level of customs clearance, and the port inventory has exceeded 3.8 million tons [3]. 3.1.2 Demand - Pig iron production remains at a low level, with an average daily output of 2.2658 million tons this week. The winter storage market has been delayed, and the supply - demand imbalance in the coke market persists. There is still a possibility of a fourth round of price cuts [6]. 3.1.3 Inventory - This week, the total coking coal inventory increased by 909,000 tons week - on - week, with inventory accumulation in all sectors, mainly in the upstream and intermediate sectors. Near the end of the year, port customs clearance remains high, and some port inventories have been transferred to coal washing plants. The coking coal inventory of coal washing plants increased by 253,000 tons week - on - week, and the total inventory of the three ports increased by 259,000 tons [6]. 3.1.4 Market Data | Fundamental Changes | Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 8.3473 million tons (- 58,200 tons); FW clean coal 4.2769 million tons (- 43,900 tons) | Independent coking plants' daily average output 627,000 tons (- 3,000 tons); Steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average output 468,000 tons (+ 3,000 tons) | | Demand | Pig iron production 2.2658 million tons (+ 300 tons) | Pig iron production 2.2658 million tons (+ 300 tons) | | Inventory | MS total inventory + 909,000 tons; Mine raw coal - 34,200 tons; Independent coking + 34,000 tons; Mine clean coal + 17,400 tons; Steel mill coking + 17,000 tons; Port + 234,000 tons; Port + 259,000 tons | MS total inventory + 144,000 tons; Independent coking + 11,000 tons; Steel mill + 85,000 tons; Port + 47,000 tons | | Profit | Commodity coal 515 yuan/ton (- 3 yuan/ton) | Average profit of coking enterprises 34 yuan/ton (- 26 yuan/ton) | | Warehouse Receipt | Mongolian 5 coal warehouse receipt in Tangshan 1,159 yuan/ton | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt 1,600 yuan/ton | [8] 3.2 Coking Coal Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Supply - Weekly and monthly data on coking coal supply from domestic mines and Mongolian coal customs clearance are presented, including the production of raw coal, clean coal, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at various ports [10][12][14]. 3.2.2 Inventory - Pit - mouth inventory: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample mines decreased by 34,200 tons to 2.0466 million tons, while the clean coal inventory increased by 17,400 tons to 1.3489 million tons. - Port inventory: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 2.995 million tons, an increase of 133,000 tons week - on - week. - Coking plant inventory: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in coking plants are provided, including overall and regional data. - Steel mill inventory: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in steel mills are provided, including overall and regional data [23][25][28][33]. 3.3 Coke Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - Data on the capacity utilization rate and production of coke in coking plants and steel mills are presented, including overall and regional data [37][43][45][47]. 3.3.2 Inventory - Data on the inventory and available days of coke in coking plants, steel mills, and the overall sample are provided, including overall and regional data [49][50][55]. 3.3.3 Demand - Pig iron production is used as an indicator of coke demand, with an average daily output of 2.2658 million tons this week [6]. 3.3.4 Profit - Data on the profit of coke production, including the disk profit of coke futures and the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises, are presented [60]. 3.4 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices 3.4.1 Futures - Data on the futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coking coal 2601 and 2605 contracts, as well as coke 2601 and 2605 contracts, are provided, including daily price changes [64][68]. 3.4.2 Month - to - Month Spread - Data on the month - to - month spreads of coking coal and coke futures are presented [71]. 3.4.3 Spot - Spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke are provided, including the car - board price of coking coal and the ex - factory price of coke [73]. 3.4.4 Basis - Data on the basis of coking coal and coke futures are presented [76][77].

证券之星消息，12月26日焦炭板块较上一交易日上涨0.17%，宝泰隆领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3963.68，上涨0.1%。深证成指报收于13603.89，上涨0.54%。焦炭板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600725 云维股份 | | 1465.59万 | 13.28% | -662.31万 | -6.00% | -803.28万 | -7.28% | | 601015 陕西黑猫 | | 556.39万 | 5.55% | -428.39万 | -4.28% | -128.00万 | -1.28% | | 600792 云煤能源 | | -321.07万 | -5.37% | 174.70万 | 2.92% | 146.38万 | 2.45% | | 601011 | 宝泰隆 | -464.42万 | -2.42% | 186.69万 | 0.97% | 277.72万 | ...

Rebar Steel - The rebar futures contract closed at 3127 CNY/ton, down 9 CNY/ton or 0.29%, with a reduction in open interest by 15,600 contracts [3][12] - The national rebar production increased by 27,100 tons week-on-week to 1,843,900 tons, but decreased by 319,100 tons year-on-year [3][12] - The current supply-demand dynamics are neutral, with strong real demand but expectations of weakening demand as the off-season approaches [3][12] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures contract closed at 778.5 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton or 0.13%, with trading volume of 150,000 contracts and an increase in open interest by 13,000 contracts [4][13] - The total iron ore inventory at 47 ports increased by 3,944,300 tons to 166,199,600 tons, while steel mill inventories rose by 1,360,000 tons to 8,860,000 tons [4][13] - The market is expected to experience volatility due to mixed supply and demand factors, including high furnace maintenance and restarts [4][13] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract closed at 1124 CNY/ton, down 8 CNY/ton or 0.71%, with an increase in open interest by 3,115 contracts [6][14] - A coal mine accident in Yunnan has led to temporary shutdowns, exacerbating supply tightness [6][14] - Demand remains weak as steel mills continue to face profit pressures, leading to cautious purchasing behavior [6][14] Coking Coke - The coking coke futures contract closed at 1739 CNY/ton, down 7 CNY/ton or 0.4%, with an increase in open interest by 330 contracts [7][14] - The market for coking coke remains stable, with no significant price changes reported at major ports [7][14] - Demand is under pressure due to weak consumption in the market, leading to cautious purchasing strategies from steel mills [7][14] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon futures contract closed at 5846 CNY/ton, up 0.48%, with a decrease in open interest by 3,752 contracts [8][15] - Weekly manganese silicon production has decreased to a median level compared to previous years, with some factories reducing output [8][15] - Inventory levels among 63 sample enterprises increased by 2,500 tons to 384,500 tons, indicating limited demand support [8][15] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures contract closed at 5692 CNY/ton, up 0.85%, with an increase in open interest by 6,584 contracts [9][16] - Recent production data shows a 6.1% decrease in weekly silicon iron output, with both reductions and restarts occurring [9][16] - Inventory levels among 60 sample enterprises decreased by 1,550 tons to 63,610 tons, suggesting a tightening supply situation [9][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It details the current market situation, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each category, and provides corresponding trading strategies. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Copper**: High copper prices have suppressed terminal demand, leading to significant spot discounts and inventory accumulation. Upward drivers include further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations; downward drivers are weak demand. Suggest a light - position holding of a protective put option portfolio [2]. - **PP**: The basis weakens, and trading improves. Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot coal prices vary, and the upside of the futures price is limited. Switch to short - selling on rallies [3]. - **Soybean Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, but cost supports the downside. Concerns about customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [4]. - **Silver**: Supply tightness and capital drive prices to maintain a strong - side oscillation. Hold long positions, and reduce or lock positions before the Spring Festival [5]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: A - share indices rise, and the basis of the four major stock index futures contracts is repaired. The short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index rebounds [7][8][9]. - **News**: Beijing eases housing purchase restrictions, and the US raises IPO liquidity thresholds [8][9]. - **Funding**: A - share trading volume is stable, and the central bank conducts net injections [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try a bull - spread strategy on the CSI 300 index [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures decline, and short - term bonds are relatively strong [10]. - **Funding**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations result in net injections, and the funding rate is seasonally up but controllable [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider going long on the T contract on pullbacks and participate in the 2603 contract cash - and - carry arbitrage and basis - widening strategies [12]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Overseas markets are closed for holidays. Some precious metals experience price adjustments, with platinum strengthening and palladium once hitting the daily limit down [13][15]. - **Outlook**: The medium - to - long - term price of precious metals has an upward trend, but short - term fluctuations exist. Adopt a long - position strategy on dips [16]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index**: SCFIS and SCFI indices show an upward trend [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Container capacity increases, and demand in the eurozone and the US is weak [19]. - **Logic**: The futures contract is in a consolidation phase, with limited drivers, and is expected to oscillate in the short term [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High prices suppress demand, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Hold protective put options [24]. - **Alumina**: The market is oversupplied, and the price is expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line [26]. - **Aluminum**: The market is in a state of macro - positive expectations versus fundamental pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [29]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: High costs and weak demand limit price movements, and the price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [31]. - **Zinc**: TC stabilizes, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [36]. - **Tin**: Supply is improving, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [40]. - **Nickel**: The market is affected by expectations of tightened ore supply, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [42]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of strong expectations versus weak reality, and the price is expected to oscillate and adjust [46]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a state of high - level oscillation, with strong capital sentiment. The price is expected to oscillate widely [50]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is in a high - level oscillation, with demand weakness. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to production - cut implementation [55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel production is cut, and inventory is reduced. The price is expected to oscillate. Consider exiting the 1 - 5 positive spread and looking for opportunities to go long on the 5 - month iron - ore ratio [57][58]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a short - term range - trading strategy on the 05 contract [60]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply may decrease, and demand is weak. Switch to short - selling on rallies [66]. - **Coke**: The third price cut is implemented, and the price is expected to decline. Switch to short - selling on rallies [70][71]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is reduced, and demand is stable. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [73]. - **Silicon Manganese**: High inventory suppresses price rebounds, and the price is expected to run weakly. Consider short - selling when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [76]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, and customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [79]. - **Pigs**: Seasonal demand supports the market, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [81]. - **Corn**: Supply and demand are balanced, and the price is in a stalemate. Pay attention to selling sentiment and policy releases [84]. - **Sugar**: The international market is bearish, and the domestic market may have limited rebounds. Adopt a bearish - on - rebounds strategy [85]. - **Cotton**: US cotton oscillates at the bottom, and domestic cotton prices are expected to rise. The supply pressure is released, and the long - term outlook is optimistic [88]. - **Eggs**: Supply pressure is high but eases marginally. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate at the bottom [92]. - **Oils**: Palm oil may continue to rise but also faces downward risks. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have different market situations. Adopt corresponding strategies according to different varieties [93][95][96]. - **Jujubes**: The price rebounds. Pay attention to sales in the distribution areas. Consider selling call options [97]. - **Apples**: The price oscillates. Consider closing long positions [98]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: Valuation increases, and downstream feedback is negative. The upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [100]. - **PTA**: Follow PX trends, and the upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [102]. - **Short - Fiber**: Supply is high, and demand is weak. Follow raw - material fluctuations [104]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply is expected to increase, and processing fees may be compressed. Adopt the same strategy as PTA and short - sell processing fees on rallies [106]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to decrease, but the cost support is limited. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a 5 - 9 reverse - arbitrage strategy [108]. - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [109]. - **Styrene**: Supply and demand both increase, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range [111]. - **LLDPE**: Supply and demand are weak. Go long on the 2605 contract in the short term [113]. - **PP**: Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Methanol**: The market is expected to balance in the first quarter of next year. Pay attention to the contraction of MTO05 [114]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and the price is expected to decline [116]. - **PVC**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price is expected to decline after a rebound [117]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. Short - sell on rallies [120]. - **Glass**: The price is under pressure. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [120]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price is driven by macro - sentiment, but the fundamentals are weak. Try short - selling around 15700 [122]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Avoid short - selling the BR2602 contract [124][125].

| 图1、2016年以来股价与美元兑人民币汇率负相关性居前的细分行业 | | --- | 智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研究报告称，综合各行业2016年以来股价与美元兑人民币汇率的全时段相关性和滚动三个月相关性中位数，股价与美元 兑人民币汇率负相关性靠前(即人民币升值驱动股价上行)的细分行业，核心逻辑可归纳为三类：原材料进口依赖度较高、人民币升值驱动进口成本下降： 包括焦炭、钢铁、部分化工品(塑料、化学原料、农化制品、橡胶)、能源金属、造纸、航空机场、农产品加工等。 美元负债成本较高、人民币升值驱动美元负债成本下降：典型如通过海外融资降低融资成本、拓宽融资渠道的建筑地产链(房地产开发、房地产服务、专 业工程)、出于跨境业务货币匹配需求持有较高美元负债的物流、光学光电子、贸易、多元金融。人民币购买力提升带动内需/跨境消费需求：主要集中在 服务消费和高端消费领域，包括跨境电商、酒店餐饮、饰品等。 | 人民币升值受益逻辑 | 一级行业 | 二级行业 | | 股价与美元兑人民币汇率相关性 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2016年以来-整体 | 2 ...

证券之星消息，12月25日焦炭板块较上一交易日上涨0.78%，美锦能源领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3959.62，上涨0.47%。深证成指报收于13531.41，上涨0.33%。焦炭板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000723 | 美锦能源 | 4.74 | 1.72% | 67.73万 | 3.20亿 | | 600725 | 云维股份 | 4.09 | 0.99% | 26.41万 | 1.07亿 | | 601011 | 宝泰隆 | 3.48 | 0.87% | 36.85万 | 1.27亿 | | 601015 | 陕西黑猫 | 3.71 | 0.27% | 20.58万 ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺍﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻤﺘ | 7601.39万 | | 600740 | 山西焦化 | 3.83 | 0.26% | 10.13万 | 3868.33万 | | 600792 | 云煤能源 | 4.00 | 0.00% | 12.75万 | 5081.19万 | | 600408 ...

以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 从资金流向上来看，当日焦炭板块主力资金净流出699.85万元，游资资金净流出3836.2万元，散户资金净 流入4536.05万元。焦炭板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601011 | 宝泰降 | - 1586.05万 | 10.83% | -937.17万 | -6.40% | -648.87万 | -4.43% | | 000723 美锦能源 | | 869.70万 | 4.46% | -2356.02万 | -12.07% | 1486.32万 | 7.61% | | 600740 山西焦化 | | 240.51万 | 5.25% | -651.69万 | -14.24% | 411.18万 | 8.98% | | 601015 陕西黑猫 | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - After the rapid decline in the previous period, the pessimistic sentiment in the market has been released. Coupled with a slight improvement in market expectations, the price has staged a phased rebound. However, the fundamentals remain weak, resulting in a lackluster price rebound [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Report Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the prices of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated with relatively sharp price movements. In the spot market, the price of high - quality primary coking coal in Shanxi remained stable. Steel mills completed the third round of price cuts for coke, and downstream may replenish raw materials after the price drop [2] Import Data - In recent months, China's coking coal imports have remained at a relatively high level. In November, China imported 10.7315 million tons of coking coal, a month - on - month increase of 1.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.72%. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports reached 105 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.687 million tons, a decline of 5.99%. In November, Mongolia's coking coal imports were 6.2441 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.38% and a year - on - year increase of 19.65%. High - frequency data shows that Mongolia's coal clearance remained high in December, with inventory increasing in the port supervision area [2] Supply Side - In the short term, the fundamentals have not changed significantly. Last week, some coal mines in the main production areas resumed production after face - changing operations and increased production to meet the annual production targets, resulting in a slight increase in output. However, as it is the peak period for year - end coal mine maintenance, the increase in output may be limited. With downstream coke and steel enterprises starting to replenish inventory, the trading of coking coal has improved [2] Demand Side - Last week, the blast furnace hot metal output dropped to 2.2655 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 28,600 tons, which continued to suppress the rigid demand for raw materials [2] Future Focus - Pay attention to changes in steel mill blast furnace operations and coal mine复产 conditions [3]

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on coke, released on December 24, 2025, by the black team of the research center [1] Key Data Coke Prices - The latest price of Shanxi quasi - first wet quenching coke is 1485.59, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 54.61, a monthly decrease of 163.84, and a year - on - year decrease of 13.49% [2] - The latest price of Hebei quasi - first dry quenching coke is 1735.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 55.00, a monthly decrease of 165.00, and a year - on - year increase of 4.52% [2] - The latest price of Shandong quasi - first dry quenching coke is 1660.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 55.00, a monthly decrease of 165.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 12.63% [2] - The latest price of Jiangsu quasi - first dry quenching coke is 1700.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 55.00, a monthly decrease of 165.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 12.37% [2] - The latest price of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is 1180.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 50.00, a monthly decrease of 150.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 15.71% [2] Production and Utilization - The blast furnace开工率 (not translated as the term might be specific to the industry and needs context) is 84.93, with a weekly decrease of 0.99, a monthly decrease of 3.65, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.69% [2] - The daily average iron water output is 226.55, with a weekly decrease of 2.65, a monthly decrease of 9.73, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [2] - The coking capacity utilization rate is 71.92, with a weekly decrease of 0.72, a monthly increase of 0.82, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.18% [2] - The daily average coke output is 51.30, with a weekly decrease of 0.30, a monthly decrease of 1.59, and a year - on - year decrease of 3.21% [2] Inventory - The coking plant inventory is 51.90, with a weekly increase of 1.79, a monthly increase of 8.46, and a year - on - year increase of 10.19% [2] - The port inventory is 175.65, with a weekly decrease of 5.55, a monthly decrease of 17.35, and a year - on - year increase of 5.08% [2] - The steel mill inventory is 633.73, with a weekly decrease of 1.55, a monthly increase of 11.39, and a year - on - year increase of 0.34% [2] - The steel mill inventory days are 11.72, with a weekly increase of 0.06, a monthly increase of 0.67, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.24% [2] Futures Data - The latest price of the 05 futures contract is 1742.5, with a daily increase of 6.00, a weekly increase of 78.50, a monthly decrease of 36.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.18% [2] - The latest price of the 09 futures contract is 1818.5, with a daily increase of 8.50, a weekly increase of 81.50, a monthly decrease of 26.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.60% [2] - The latest price of the 01 futures contract is 1606, with a daily increase of 9.50, a weekly increase of 84.50, a monthly decrease of 21.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.72% [2] - The 05 basis is 32.32, with a daily decrease of 6.00, a weekly decrease of 137.22, a monthly decrease of 154.15, and a year - on - year decrease of 171.97 [2] - The 09 basis is - 43.68, with a daily decrease of 8.50, a weekly decrease of 140.22, a monthly decrease of 164.15, and a year - on - year decrease of 199.47 [2] - The 01 basis is 168.82, with a daily decrease of 9.50, a weekly decrease of 143.22, a monthly decrease of 169.15, and a year - on - year decrease of 74.97 [2] - The 5 - 9 spread is - 136.50, with a daily increase of 3.50, a weekly increase of 6.00, a monthly increase of 15.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 97.00 [2] - The 9 - 1 spread is - 76.00, with a daily decrease of 2.50, a weekly decrease of 3.00, a monthly decrease of 10.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 27.50 [2] - The 1 - 5 spread is 212.50, with a daily decrease of 1.00, a weekly decrease of 3.00, a monthly decrease of 5.00, and a year - on - year increase of 124.50 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][6][7] 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices rose and then fell, with stable basis. Steel production and inventory reduction continued, but the inventory structure was still differentiated. The reduction in production supported steel prices, but weak demand limited upward momentum. Steel prices were expected to maintain a range - bound trend, with rebar in the 3000 - 3200 range and hot - rolled coils in the 3150 - 3350 range. Hold 1 - 5 positive spreads for rebar, exit 5 - month coil - rebar spreads on dips, and consider long - position in the rebar - iron ore ratio on dips [1] Iron Ore Industry - In the short term, it was difficult to form a trend - based decline in iron ore supply - demand contradictions, and high inventory suppressed the price upside. With an increase in steel mill restarts, iron ore prices were expected to rebound slightly. It was recommended to trade the 05 contract within the 760 - 810 range [4][5] Coke Industry - Coke futures oscillated, and the third round of spot price cuts was implemented, with expectations of further cuts. Supply decreased due to pressure on coking profits, and demand weakened as steel mills increased maintenance. Overall inventory decreased slightly, and the supply - demand situation for coke weakened. After the third round of spot price cuts, the basis weakened, and the expected rebound was unlikely to last. It was recommended to take profit on long positions in the J2605 contract [6] Coking Coal Industry - Coking coal futures continued to rebound, and spot auction prices showed mixed trends. Supply from mines improved slightly, but production might continue to decline at the end of the year. Imported coal inventory was increasing. Demand weakened as steel mills increased maintenance and coking profits declined. Overall inventory increased slightly. It was recommended to go long on the JM2605 contract on dips [6] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon futures oscillated, with increased hedging by manufacturers driving up spot prices. Supply decreased slightly, but demand from the steel - making industry continued to contract. Inventory remained high, and the supply - demand contradiction was prominent. Prices were expected to fluctuate within the 5400 - 5650 range, and it was recommended to short on price rebounds above the Ningxia production cost [7] - Ferromanganese futures oscillated, with the market in a relatively balanced state. Manganese ore provided some support for prices. The key factors were the reduction in production and the expected restocking by steel mills at the end of the year. Prices were expected to remain weak, but the downward space was limited [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions showed various changes, with some prices increasing, some remaining stable, and some decreasing [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet and plate billet prices remained stable. Costs and profits of different steel - making processes and in different regions also had different changes [1] Production - Daily average pig iron production decreased by 1.1% to 226.6 tons, and the production of five major steel products decreased by 1.0% to 798.0 tons. Rebar production increased by 1.6% to 181.7 tons, while hot - rolled coil production decreased by 5.4% to 291.9 tons [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.8% to 1294.8 tons, rebar inventory decreased by 5.6% to 452.5 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.6% to 390.7 tons [1] Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 18.8%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.5%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 2.7%, while that for hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.4% [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased by about 0.5%, and the 05 - contract basis of different powders also decreased slightly. The 5 - 9 and 1 - 5 spreads increased [4] Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased by 0.5%, while the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price remained unchanged, and the Platts 62% Fe price increased slightly [4] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 2.8% to 2646.7 tons, and the global shipment volume decreased by 3.6% to 3464.5 tons. The national monthly import volume decreased by 0.7% to 11054.0 tons [4] Demand - The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.2% to 226.6 tons, the 45 - port daily average desilting volume decreased by 1.8% to 313.5 tons, and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel production decreased by 4.9% and 3.0% respectively [4] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.8% to 15512.63 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.2% to 8724.0 tons, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increased by 5.0% to 21.0 days [4] Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke prices in different regions and contracts showed various changes, with the 01 and 05 contracts decreasing slightly. The coking profit increased slightly on a weekly basis [6] Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal prices in different regions and contracts also had different changes, with the 01 contract increasing by 2.7% and the 05 contract increasing by 1.0%. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 1.5% on a weekly basis [6] Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.5% to 63.0 tons, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3% to 46.5 tons [6] Demand - The pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.2% to 226.6 tons [6] Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased by 0.4% to 900.5 tons, with different changes in the inventories of coking plants, steel mills, and ports [6] Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased from - 0.4 to - 0.2 tons, an increase of 88.1% [6] Coking Coal Industry Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coking coal prices in different regions showed mixed trends, with the Shanxi coking coal price remaining stable and the Mongolian coking coal price decreasing slightly [6] Overseas Coal Prices - Overseas coal prices showed various changes, with the FOB price of the same ship remaining unchanged and the ex - warehouse price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port increasing by 1.3% [6] Supply - The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 0.3% to 853.4 tons, and the clean coal production decreased by 0.1% to 438.2 tons [6] Demand - The coke production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.5% to 63.0 tons, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3% to 46.5 tons [6] Inventory Changes - The coking coal inventory showed various changes, with the clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increasing by 5.2%, and the inventories of coking plants, steel mills, and ports showing different trends [6] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese spot prices in different regions increased slightly, with price increases of 0.4% - 0.6% [7] Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions showed different changes, and the production profits also had different trends [7] Manganese Ore Supply - Manganese ore shipment volume decreased by 25.0% to 80.1 tons, arrival volume decreased by 3.4% to 74.8 tons, and desilting volume decreased by 8.6% to 59.2 tons [7] Manganese Ore Inventory - Manganese ore port inventory decreased by 0.7% to 448.3 tons [7] Production - Ferrosilicon production decreased by 6.1% to 10.0 tons, and the production rate decreased by 6.6% to 30.3%. Ferromanganese weekly production decreased by 0.5% to 188 tons, and the production rate decreased by 3.4% to 35.6% [7] Demand - Ferrosilicon demand increased by 0.5% to 18.8 tons, and ferromanganese demand decreased by 0.3% to 112 tons. The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.24%, and the blast furnace operation rate decreased by 0.24% [7] Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 16.3% to 65.7 tons, and the inventory - available days decreased by 2.5% to 15.4 days. The inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased by 0.74% to 38.5 tons, and the inventory - available days remained stable [7]