相关事件 大行评级丨大摩：上调苹果目标价至315美元，列入2026年科技硬件类股首选之一 杰富瑞：将苹果目标 价上调至283.36美元 摩根士丹利发表报告，将苹果的目标价由305美元上调至315美元，看好其在2026年具备可观的成长机 会，列入2026年科技硬件类股首选之一。 在人工智能与云端相关支出方面，该行认为，即便基础设施价格存在上行风险，苹果在云端需求上仍可 维持相对稳定。不过，随着存储器(RAM)成本大幅上扬，物料成本(BOM)压力恐成为产业共同挑战。该 行也指出，目前并未将人工智能视为苹果短期内的主要变现引擎。尽管相关布局方向正面，但尚未看到 明确的产品或服务营收爆发点。 产品动能方面，大摩看好iPhone 17周期的表现，指出该系列受惠于延长至五年的换机周期，加上核心 功能升级，以及电信商补贴与旧机换新方案改善，有助支撑销量表现。展望2027年，该行预期，苹果在 2026会计年度结束时，市面上仍将约有5.5亿台iPhone无法升级至 Apple Intelligence，随着新版Siri与第 三方大型语言模型支援逐步到位，后续升级需求可望延续。 ...

在人工智能与云端相关支出方面，该行认为，即便基础设施价格存在上行风险，苹果在云端需求上仍可 维持相对稳定。不过，随着存储器(RAM)成本大幅上扬，物料成本(BOM)压力恐成为产业共同挑战。该 行也指出，目前并未将人工智能视为苹果短期内的主要变现引擎。尽管相关布局方向正面，但尚未看到 明确的产品或服务营收爆发点。 摩根士丹利发表报告，将苹果的目标价由305美元上调至315美元，看好其在2026年具备可观的成长机 会，列入2026年科技硬件类股首选之一。 产品动能方面，大摩看好iPhone 17周期的表现，指出该系列受惠于延长至五年的换机周期，加上核心 功能升级，以及电信商补贴与旧机换新方案改善，有助支撑销量表现。展望2027年，该行预期，苹果在 2026会计年度结束时，市面上仍将约有5.5亿台iPhone无法升级至 Apple Intelligence，随着新版Siri与第 三方大型语言模型支援逐步到位，后续升级需求可望延续。 ...

12月以来，在行情短线切换剧烈的背景下，部分基金的降仓或调仓动作明显，也有基金经理旗下产品与 三季度重仓风格背道而驰，或调仓布局跨年行情。 对于后市行情，基金经理多数持乐观展望。有基金经理表示，估值偏高后的调整对市场是健康的，为后 续行情跌出新的操作空间，另外还有不少高位股通过震荡夯实了基础，也会考虑重新买入。 年末部分基金降低仓位 以广发鑫益为例，在12月16日指数重挫的交易日中，该基金跌幅仅为0.22%，拉长时间来看，这只产品 在相当长的时间里净值表现非常平稳，自从10月27日创下历史新高后至今回撤幅度仅有2.57%，与三季 报中的持仓数据并不契合。截至三季度末，该基金股票仓位超过了九成，且重仓股中包括立讯精密 （002475）、兆易创新（603986）、天孚通信（300394）以及中际旭创（300308）等高弹性个股。此 外，基金经理费逸管理的广发聚瑞、广发瑞安精选等与广发鑫益均有类似走势。 灵活配置型基金更显"灵活" 值得注意的是，前述基金多为灵活配置型基金，某公募投研人士介绍，相较于普通股票型基金需严格遵 循基金契约、维持不低于80%股票仓位的要求，灵活配置型基金在仓位管理上具备显著的灵活调整空 间 ...

Group 1 - The Central Financial Committee emphasizes the need to effectively manage financial risks related to local small and medium financial institutions, real estate companies, and local government financing platforms, while strictly controlling new risks and addressing existing ones [1] - In November, China's financial data shows an increase of 15.36 trillion yuan in RMB loans for the first 11 months, with a cumulative social financing scale of 33.39 trillion yuan, exceeding last year's total by 3.99 trillion yuan [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the People's Bank of China jointly issued a notice to support green factory construction through green finance policies, focusing on R&D, industrial application projects, and zero-carbon factory construction [1] Group 2 - The State Administration for Market Regulation is soliciting opinions on the "Compliance Guidelines for Pricing Behavior in the Automotive Industry," which aims to standardize pricing practices and address issues like failure to clearly mark prices and false promotions [2] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has released the "Supervision and Management Measures for Commercial Bank Custody Business (Trial)," which includes significant modifications such as new requirements for custodians of non-standard products and prohibitions on providing liquidity support [2] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is seeking opinions on the strictest public fund sales behavior regulations, targeting long-standing industry issues such as "heavy sales, light service" and introducing new rules for performance display and sales practices [3] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has disclosed that it will monitor stocks with significant volatility and conduct special investigations into major corporate events [3] - Reports indicate that the market for bank wealth management products has reached a historical high of approximately 33.8 trillion yuan, with a growth of about 3.43 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of the year [3] Group 4 - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has dropped below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan per bottle, marking a new low [4] - Douyin has launched a new payment feature called "Douyin Buy," allowing consumers to pay at merchant locations through the Douyin app [4] Group 5 - Moore Threads plans to use 7.5 billion yuan of idle fundraising for cash management, investing in safe and liquid principal-protected products [5] - Enjie Co. intends to acquire 100% of Zhongke Hualian's shares, with stock resuming trading on December 15 [6] - Kehua Data has launched a high-density liquid-cooled computing POD in collaboration with Muxi Co. and has engaged in business partnerships with domestic GPU chip manufacturers [6] Group 6 - The U.S. stock market saw declines across major indices, with the Dow Jones down 0.51% and the Nasdaq down 1.69%, influenced by significant drops in companies like Caterpillar and Nvidia [6] - The EU has agreed to indefinitely freeze the assets of the Russian central bank in Europe [6] - U.S. President Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia after discussions with their leaders [6] Group 7 - The Central Economic Work Conference prioritizes domestic demand and introduces a plan for increasing income among urban and rural residents, indicating a shift towards relying on domestic consumption for economic growth in 2026 [7] - The emphasis on quality investment expansion reflects a focus on urban renewal and optimizing the use of special bonds [7]

2025 年 12 月 11 日， 2025CSR 盛典暨第一财经善商业论坛在上海世博会博物馆正式举行。本 届论坛以"韧性共生：重塑可持续竞争力新范式"为主题，邀请各机构代表、企业嘉宾、学者齐聚一 堂，共同回顾过往可持续发展的经验，搭建全球可持续对话合作平台， 探讨构建 "商业 - 环境 - 社会"三位一体的韧性体系，贡献可持续发展的 思想成果。 作为论坛主办方，第一财经长期致力于打造可持续发展平台，超越传统 CSR 逻辑，重新定义"可持 续竞争力"。 第一财经 常务 副总经理杜坚 在致辞中提到， 媒体的 责任 在于洞察趋势、凝聚共 识，更在于推动实实在在的产业变革。第一财经始终以推动可持续发展为己任 ， 既是产业实践的记 录者，更是价值链接的赋能者 。 第一财经 通过专业报道与深度研究，挖掘企业创新案例，解读政 策市场趋势，搭建跨界沟通桥梁；通过 探寻 " 中国企业社会责任典范 " ，以客观标准发掘先锋样 本，让负责任的商业实践获得广泛认可 ， 通过思想碰撞，为 更多 企业破解困境提供新思路。 联合国可持续发展管理学院首席代表、联合国可持续发展目标全球协作项目工作委员会主任柳云虎 带来主题演讲 《 面向未来 ...

德银在12月10日发布的2026年欧洲科技硬件行业报告中认为，2026年科技硬件将由六大主题主导：内存短缺、AI挤压主流组件、光电子加速渗 透、先进封测升级、800V电源架构改革及边缘AI回归增长。 市场正经历剧烈的价格波动，内存短缺已从单纯的组件风险升级为宏观层面的关切。据追风交易台消息，德银分析师Robert Sanders团队在研报中 表示，过去三个月，DRAM现货价格暴涨300-400%，NAND闪存同步大涨200%，且涨势正向合约价快速传导。 与此同时，AI 支出持续挤占主流电子组件供应，光电子、先进封测、800V 电源架构等技术赛道加速爆发，边缘 AI 已在多个领域形成落地态势。 多重变量正重构行业竞争格局。 这些趋势将直接影响消费电子、智能手机、数据中心等关键终端市场，推动产品迭代延迟、配置调整与价格波动，同时为半导体设备、功率器 件、光模块等细分领域带来结构性投资机会，部分龙头企业估值有望突破历史区间。 内存短缺持续发酵，WFE 支出成核心推手 AI支出的爆发式增长加剧了关键组件的供应紧张，对低中端智能手机、PC等主流电子领域构成持续阻力。内存、无源器件、光组件及硬盘驱动器 （HDD）的供应受 ...

国债： 国债期货收盘，国债期货收盘，30年期主力合约跌1.04%，10年期主力合约跌0.35%，5年期主力合约跌 0.24%，2年期主力合约跌0.05%。中国央行12月4日开展1808亿元7天期逆回购，中标利率1.4%，上次中 标利率1.4%。据qeubee统计，公开市场有3564亿元逆回购到期，实现净回笼1756亿元。资金面来看， DR001上行0.07BP至1.30%，DR007下行0.31BP至1.44%。11月初央行买卖国债利好落地，此外MLF和买 断式逆回购继续延续净投放，资金面整体宽松，但市场对于央行降息的预期较低，债市呈现利好出尽行 情，国债收益率震荡小幅上行，收益率曲线陡峭化。年内来看，资金宽松但降息预期较弱，经济边际走 弱但整体保持韧性，通胀延续温和回升态势，预计年内延续窄幅震荡走势。 贵金属： 隔夜伦敦现货黄金先抑后扬；现货银铂钯则震荡走弱；金银比升至73.8附近。截至11月29日当周首申失 业金人数减少2.7万人至19.1万，显著低于市场预期的22万及前值21.6万，显示企业裁员意愿有限，就业 市场保有韧性。据路透社报道称，日本央行或将把政策利率从0.5%上调至0.75%，这将是自今年1 ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs reported that hedge funds' exposure to AI-related technology hardware reached the highest level since tracking began in 2016 as of October [1] Group 1 - Hedge funds have significantly increased their risk exposure to AI-related technology hardware [1] - This increase marks a notable trend in investment behavior among hedge funds [1] - The data reflects a growing confidence in the potential of AI technologies within the hardware sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2025 is experiencing a dual impact of "strong regulation + stable development," leading to a differentiated market structure, with a significant increase in share reduction and regulatory investigations affecting over 30,000 shareholders [1][2]. Group 1: Share Reduction Trends - As of October 31, 2025, a total of 1,979 listed companies announced share reduction plans, with a total reduction amount exceeding 380 billion yuan, and actual reductions reaching approximately 232 billion yuan, marking an almost 80% increase compared to the entire reduction scale of 130 billion yuan in 2024 [2]. - In October alone, there were 426 new reduction plans involving 236 companies, with a planned reduction amount of 52.1 billion yuan, indicating a concentrated effort by major shareholders to reduce their stakes [2]. - The average increase in stock prices for the 10 companies involved in the recent negative news was 18% year-to-date, suggesting that shareholders are cashing out at high price levels [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Investigations - By November 29, 2025, 100 listed companies or executives had received investigation notices, with November seeing a notable increase in the pace of investigations, including three companies disclosing investigation announcements on a single day [4]. - Among the 10 companies facing negative news, three were investigated for information disclosure violations, indicating a significant regulatory focus on compliance [4]. - The regulatory environment has intensified, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission imposing substantial penalties on individuals and companies for violations, signaling a "zero tolerance" approach to misconduct [5]. Group 3: Impact on Shareholders - The recent wave of share reductions and investigations has collectively impacted over 30,000 shareholders, with average holdings exceeding 150,000 yuan for some investors, many of whom entered the market recently and are now facing losses [7]. - Stock price volatility has been a direct source of loss for shareholders, with some companies experiencing significant price drops following negative announcements, leading to average losses of over 12,000 yuan per shareholder on a single day [7]. - Liquidity pressures are also a concern, as reduced trading activity and panic selling could lead to a situation where stocks are difficult to sell at favorable prices [8]. Group 4: Regulatory Measures and Investor Protection - In response to market challenges, the regulatory authorities have implemented several policies aimed at enhancing market order and protecting small investors, including stricter rules on share reductions and improved mechanisms for investor protection [9]. - The revised regulations require major shareholders to pre-disclose reduction plans 15 trading days in advance and prohibit reductions during ongoing investigations, thereby tightening the constraints on share reductions [9]. - New measures introduced in October 2025 aim to streamline the investor protection process, making it easier for affected shareholders to seek redress and enhancing the overall regulatory framework [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rapid response from various sectors in Hong Kong to support victims of the fire incident at Hong Fu Court in Tai Po, with significant donations and aid being mobilized for emergency relief and recovery efforts [1][2][4]. Group 1: Donations and Aid - The Hong Kong Jockey Club announced an initial aid of 100 million HKD through its "Emergency Relief Fund" to assist the injured and families of the deceased, with more support planned in the future [1]. - China Merchants Group allocated 20 million HKD to establish a special charity fund for emergency relief and post-disaster recovery efforts [1]. - The Lee Shau Kee Foundation pledged 30 million HKD for emergency relief and transitional housing for affected individuals [1]. - The Macao Ho Ying Tung Foundation, Hong Kong Ho Ying Tung Foundation, and Ho Ying Tung Group collectively donated 30 million HKD to support residents of Hong Fu Court [2]. - The Sun Hung Kai Properties and Huang Ting Fang Charity Foundation announced a donation of 20 million HKD for disaster relief [2]. - Several banks, including HSBC and Hang Seng Bank, contributed an initial 30 million HKD for post-fire recovery efforts, while Bank of China (Hong Kong) donated 20 million HKD [2]. - Lenovo Hong Kong and Lao Pu Gold each donated 10 million HKD for emergency relief, supply of living materials, medical assistance, and subsequent recovery efforts [2]. Group 2: Ongoing Support and Coordination - The Chinese Red Cross Society donated 2 million RMB to the Hong Kong Red Cross [3]. - Donations from various sectors continue to accumulate, and aid efforts are ongoing [4].