晨会纪要（2025/07/04） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.07.04） 宏观及策略研究 政策部署两大方向，短期市场强势震荡——A 股市场投资策略周报 基金研究 小盘成长风格表现突出，主动权益基金发行市场火热——公募基金 7 月月报 金融工程研究 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额小幅上升——融资融券 7 月月报 行业研究 证 国补夯实家居业绩改善基础，持续关注高景气的宠物食品行业——轻工制造 &纺织服饰行业 7 月投资策略展望 券 研 究 报 告 晨会纪要（2025/07/04） 宏观及策略研究 政策部署两大方向，短期市场强势震荡——A 股市场投资策略周报 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（6 月 2 ...

Core Insights - The latest financing balance of the ChiNext market is 360.598 billion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 1.783 billion yuan, indicating a positive trend in financing activities [1][2] - On July 3, the ChiNext index rose by 1.90%, and the total margin balance reached 361.652 billion yuan, reflecting a healthy market sentiment [1][2] Financing Balance Growth - A total of 530 stocks in the ChiNext saw an increase in financing balance, with 33 stocks experiencing a growth rate exceeding 10% [1][3] - The stock with the highest increase in financing balance is Xinling Electric, which saw a rise of 81.43% to 60.5776 million yuan, despite a 5.00% drop in its stock price [1][3] - Other notable stocks with significant financing balance growth include Jiama Clothing and Dongyue Silicon Materials, with increases of 65.73% and 40.01% respectively [1][3] Market Performance of Stocks - Among the stocks with over 10% increase in financing balance, the average price increase on the same day was 2.30%, with notable gainers including Honggong Technology, Jiangxin Home, and Tongguan Copper Foil, which rose by 15.98%, 14.79%, and 13.67% respectively [1][2][4] - Conversely, stocks like Guolian Aquatic Products and Xinling Electric faced declines of 7.57% and 5.00% respectively [1][2][4] Financing Balance Decline - A total of 403 stocks experienced a decline in financing balance, with 11 stocks showing a decrease of over 10% [4][5] - The stock with the largest decline in financing balance is Zerun New Energy, which fell by 19.89% to 41.285 million yuan [4][5] - Other stocks with significant declines include Haojiang Intelligent and Darui Electronics, with decreases of 16.92% and 15.33% respectively [4][5]

7月3日，A股市场整体上涨。 今日沪深两市主力资金开盘净流出48.18亿元，尾盘净流入4.1亿元，全天净流出24.75亿元。 | | | 沪深两市最近五个交易日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | 人提供随圆 | 超大单净买入 | | 2025-7-3 | -24. 75 | -48. 18 | 4. 10 | 36. 21 | | 2025-7-2 | -331.90 | -120. 22 | -18.91 | -157.53 | | 2025-7-1 | -231. 12 | -105.84 | -1.95 | -90. 80 | | 2025-6-30 | -39.95 | -29.38 | 12. 66 | 17.18 | | 2025-6-27 | -154. 13 | -87.80 | -22.52 | -36. 69 | 2. 沪深300主力资金净流出超60亿元 沪深300今日主力资金净流出66.99亿元，创业板净流出12.37亿元。 | | | 各板块最近五个交易日主力资金净流入数据( ...

| 综合 | | | | 中程退 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | -0.54 | 262.71 | -17.23 | 合金投资 | -6.93 | | 钢铁 | -0.94 | 69.95 | 118.77 | 盛德鑫泰 | -7.00 | | 煤炭 | -1.12 | 36.37 | 90.78 | 大有能源 | -3.02 | （文章来源：证券时报网） 证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午10:29，今日沪指跌0.12%，A股成交量505.05亿股，成交金额5863.66亿 元，比上一个交易日减少11.63%。个股方面，2554只个股上涨，其中涨停35只，2567只个股下跌，其 中跌停4只。从申万行业来看，电子、美容护理、纺织服饰等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为1.11%、1.00%、 0.96%；煤炭、钢铁、有色金属等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为1.12%、0.94%、0.54%。（数据宝） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

[Table_Info1] 锦泓集团(603518) 纺织服饰 [Table_Date] 发布时间：2025-07-02 [Table_Invest]买入 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司动态报告 先发布局，十年一剑 报告摘要： [锦泓集团为国内一线时装集团，公司旗下汇聚中国高端女装品牌 Table_Summary] VGRASS、中高端新复古学院风标志性品牌 TEENIEWEENIE 以及具有 中华文化元素特征的高端精品品牌元先，各品牌覆盖不同消费者群体， 共享产品研发资源与渠道发展优势，实现协同发展。2024 年公司实现收 入 43.95 亿元 ，其中 TW 品牌实现收入 34.77 亿元（占比 80%）， VGRASS 收入 7.8 亿元（占比 18%）。 TEENIEWEENIE 为品牌矩阵核心，线下渠道优化改革，线上渠道持续发 力，带动品牌活力。公司自 23 年以来持续推动线下渠道改革，关闭低效 直营店、推动非一线/新一线城市的直营转加盟，优化现有店态店型等以 提升单店业绩。截至 25Q1 TW 品牌直营门店 707 家，加盟门店 303 家。 2024 年新店态月均销售额突破 4 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The US Treasury market has a history of over 200 years, with significant events shaping its development, including the Civil War and the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system. The US bond market accounts for over 40% of the global market [2][3] - As of the end of 2024, the total US national debt is projected to reach $28.3 trillion, nearly doubling since 2017. The issuance of debt follows principles aimed at minimizing expected costs and providing predictable issuance guidance [2][3] - The trading of US Treasuries occurs mainly in Tokyo, London, and New York, with an average daily trading volume increasing by 1.8 times over the past decade. The investor structure is diverse, with overseas investors, the Federal Reserve, and money market funds accounting for about 60% of the market [3] - Long-term US Treasury yields are influenced by expected real rates, expected inflation, actual risk premiums, and inflation risk premiums. Recent data shows that the 10-year Treasury yield is slightly below last year's level, with a trend of first declining and then rising [3] Industry Research - The easing of US-China tariff issues is expected to support domestic exports, with a focus on companies with global layouts that will have competitive advantages [7][8] - H&M Group reported a 1% year-on-year increase in net sales for the first half of 2025, indicating resilience in the retail sector [7] - Xiaomi launched its first AI glasses, which are lighter and more suitable for Asian users compared to competitors. The Chinese smart glasses market is projected to reach 2.9 million units by 2025, with Xiaomi expected to capture 10% of the market share [8] - The light industry and textile sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.68 percentage points and 1.97 percentage points, respectively, during the week of June 23 to June 27 [7][8]

上 市 公 司 纺织服饰 2025 年 07 月 01 日 海澜之家 (600398) ——苏超官方战略合作伙伴，深度绑定现象级体育赛事 IP | 投资要点： | | --- | | | 2024 | 2025Q1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 20,957 | 6,187 | 22,313 | 24,540 | 27,004 | | 同比增长率（%） | -2.7 | 0.2 | 6.5 | 10.0 | 10.0 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,159 | 935 | 2,411 | 2,705 | 3,047 | | 同比增长率（%） | -26.9 | 5.5 | 11.7 | 12.2 | 12.6 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 0.46 | 0.21 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 0.63 | | 毛利率（%） | 44.5 | 46.6 | 45.4 | 46.7 | 47.6 | | ROE（%） | 12.7 | 5.2 | 13.8 | 15.0 | 1 ...

截至收盘，上证指数报收3457.75点，上涨0.39%；深证成指收于10476.29点，上涨0.11%；创业板指下 跌0.24%；科创50指数下跌0.86%。 | 605006 | 山东玻纤 | 7.39 | 8.15 | 710.06 | 5247.38 | 建筑材 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 料 | | 603936 | 博敏电子 | 10.37 | 11.69 | 495.73 | 5140.68 | 电子 | | 603091 | 众鑫股份 | 69.60 | 10.08 | 73.46 | 5112.57 | 轻工制 | | | | | | | | 造 | | 000900 | 现代投资 | 4.65 | 3.59 | 1098.30 | 5107.1 1 | 交通运 | | | | | | | | 输 | | 600353 | 旭光电子 | 14.67 | 12.69 | 321.23 | 4712.44 | 电子 | | 002102 | 能特科技 | 3.48 | 4.70 | 1317.38 | 45 ...

| 交通运输 | | | | 退市锦港 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 石油石化 | -0.37 | 84.91 | -7.00 | 华锦股份 | -3.77 | | 综合 | -0.60 | 16.15 | -17.30 | 中程退 | -69.77 | | 非银金融 | -0.63 | 584.08 | -39.55 | 国盛金控 | -5.43 | （文章来源：证券时报网） 证券时报·数据宝统计，截至下午13:58，今日沪指涨0.43%，A股成交量905.50亿股，成交金额12011.82 亿元，比上一个交易日减少6.02%。个股方面，3644只个股上涨，其中涨停79只，1536只个股下跌，其 中跌停3只。从申万行业来看，国防军工、传媒、纺织服饰等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为3.97%、2.14%、 1.38%；非银金融、综合、石油石化等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为0.63%、0.60%、0.37%。（数据宝） 今日各行业表现（截至下午13:58） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | ...

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 06 月 30 日 星期一 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 上周五 A 股三大指数涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指收跌 0.7%，深成指 收涨 0.34%，创业板指收涨 0.47%。沪深两市成交额 15409.36 亿元。 申万行业方面，有色金属、通信、纺织服饰领涨，银行、公用事业、 食品饮料领跌；概念板块方面，铜缆高速连接、金属锌、科创次新股 涨幅居前，跨境支付、可燃冰、数字货币跌幅居前。港股方面，恒生 指数收跌 0.17%，恒生科技指数收跌 0.07%；海外方面，美国三大指 数集体收涨，道指收涨 1%，标普 500 收涨 0.52%，纳指收涨 0.52%。 【重要新闻】 【沪深北港四大交易所相关负责人集中发声，释放多维度改革信号】 6 月 28 日-29 日，2025 上市公司论坛在温州举行。论坛上，沪深北 港四大交易所相关负责人集中发声，释放多维度改革信号。上交所副 总经理王泊表示，将扎实推进"1+6"改革举措和示范案例落实落地； 深交所副总经理李辉称，正紧锣密鼓地谋划 ...