| 图1、2016年以来股价与美元兑人民币汇率负相关性居前的细分行业 | | --- | 智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研究报告称，综合各行业2016年以来股价与美元兑人民币汇率的全时段相关性和滚动三个月相关性中位数，股价与美元 兑人民币汇率负相关性靠前(即人民币升值驱动股价上行)的细分行业，核心逻辑可归纳为三类：原材料进口依赖度较高、人民币升值驱动进口成本下降： 包括焦炭、钢铁、部分化工品(塑料、化学原料、农化制品、橡胶)、能源金属、造纸、航空机场、农产品加工等。 美元负债成本较高、人民币升值驱动美元负债成本下降：典型如通过海外融资降低融资成本、拓宽融资渠道的建筑地产链(房地产开发、房地产服务、专 业工程)、出于跨境业务货币匹配需求持有较高美元负债的物流、光学光电子、贸易、多元金融。人民币购买力提升带动内需/跨境消费需求：主要集中在 服务消费和高端消费领域，包括跨境电商、酒店餐饮、饰品等。 | 人民币升值受益逻辑 | 一级行业 | 二级行业 | | 股价与美元兑人民币汇率相关性 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2016年以来-整体 | 2 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3959.62 points, up 0.47%, with a trading volume of 785 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13531.41 points, up 0.33%, with a trading volume of 1139.5 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3239.34 points, up 0.3%, with a trading volume of 532.66 billion yuan [1] - The STAR 50 Index closed at 1349.06 points, down 0.23%, with a trading volume of 44.8 billion yuan [1] - Total trading volume for both markets reached 1924.5 billion yuan, an increase of 44.26 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Strong sectors included defense and military, light industry manufacturing, machinery equipment, insurance, automotive, textiles and apparel, computing, and food and beverage [3] - Active concepts included satellite internet, space stations, commercial aerospace, synchronous reluctance motors, humanoid robots, antibacterial fabrics, industrial mother machines, and PEEK materials [3] - Weak sectors included non-ferrous metals, precious metals, commercial retail, coal, and telecommunications [3] Fund Flow - The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 20.439 billion yuan [4] - The automotive sector saw the highest net inflow of main funds, amounting to 1.158 billion yuan [5] - Other sectors with significant net inflows included machinery equipment and food and beverage, with net inflows of 504 million yuan and 228 million yuan, respectively [5] - The electronics sector experienced the largest net outflow, totaling 5.068 billion yuan [5] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 1969 stocks saw net inflows, with 93 stocks receiving over 100 million yuan in net inflows [6] - Jin Feng Technology had the highest net inflow at 829 million yuan, followed by Yangguang Electric, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and others [7] - Conversely, 3196 stocks experienced net outflows, with 105 stocks seeing over 100 million yuan in net outflows [8] - Shenghong Technology had the largest net outflow at 1.651 billion yuan [9] Institutional Activity - Institutions had a net sell of approximately 108 million yuan, with 12 stocks seeing net purchases and 17 stocks net sold [10] - The stock with the highest net purchase by institutions was Hainan Development, with a net purchase amount of approximately 289 million yuan [10]

公司发布的三季报数据显示，前三季度公司共实现营业收入29.74亿元，同比下降17.24%，实现净利润 2.64亿元，同比增长101.90%，基本每股收益为0.8142元，加权平均净资产收益率6.24%。（数据宝） 联发股份股价创出历史新高，截至9:37，该股上涨9.62%，股价报15.96元，成交量862.08万股，成交金 额1.33亿元，换手率2.67%，该股最新A股总市值达51.66亿元，该股A股流通市值51.60亿元。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，联发股份所属的纺织服饰行业，目前整体跌幅为0.17%，行业内，目前股价 上涨的有30只，涨幅居前的有联发股份、戎美股份、欣龙控股等，涨幅分别为9.62%、6.79%、6.59%。 股价下跌的有72只，跌幅居前的有迎丰股份、万事利、棒杰股份等，跌幅分别为2.80%、2.58%、 2.53%。 公司12月22日在交易所互动平台披露，截至最新（12月20日）股东户数为21079户，较上期（12月10 日）增加4户，环比增长0.02%。 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market opened higher and closed positively, with the ChiNext Index rising over 2% [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3917.36, up 0.69%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13332.73, up 1.47% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.86 trillion, an increase of 136 billion compared to the previous trading day [4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Communication, which rose by 4.28%, and Comprehensive, which increased by 2.63% [1] - Conversely, sectors such as Media and Banking experienced declines, with drops of 0.61% and 0.52% respectively [1] - Notable concept indices that performed well included Hainan Free Trade Zone and Commercial Aerospace, while sectors like Hair Medical and Family Doctors lagged behind [2] Policy Impact - The People's Bank of China announced a one-time credit repair policy that will remove certain overdue credit information from the financial credit information database for eligible individuals [3] - The Loan Market Quote Rate (LPR) remained unchanged for the seventh consecutive month, with the one-year LPR at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50% [3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a loose liquidity environment until the first quarter of the following year, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and domestic economic policies [4] - The report suggests that the recent market pullback provides a good opportunity for investors to position themselves ahead of the upcoming spring market [4] - Recommended sectors for investment include dividends, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and consumer sectors [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests a focus on sectors with relatively low valuations such as liquor, hotels, catering, and duty-free segments, indicating a positive outlook for these areas [3]. Core Insights - The consumer sector faced a decline in the week of December 15-19, with various sub-sectors experiencing different levels of downturn, including retail and food and beverage [3]. - The launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18, 2025, is expected to significantly boost the duty-free industry, with the proportion of zero-tariff goods increasing from approximately 21% to 74%, enhancing product availability [3]. - Retail sales growth slowed in November, with total retail sales increasing by only 1.3% year-on-year, while policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are anticipated to aid recovery [3]. Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector saw a broad decline, with specific weekly changes in various segments such as retail and food and beverage [3]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - Hainan's duty-free shopping saw a significant increase in sales growth rates in September, October, and November, with respective year-on-year increases of 3.4%, 13.1%, and 27.1% [3]. - The report highlights the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic focus for the upcoming year, with the central economic work conference prioritizing this initiative [3]. - Key announcements include the IPO of Lin Qingxuan, which is expected to grow its revenue from 690 million yuan in 2022 to 1.21 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 32.7% [15].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3915.20 points, up 0.64%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.36% to 13318.80 points. The ChiNext Index increased by 1.80%, and the STAR Market 50 Index gained 1.95% [1] - Among the tradable A-shares, 3318 stocks rose, accounting for 64.33%, while 1652 stocks fell, and 188 stocks remained flat. There were 93 stocks that hit the daily limit up, and 8 stocks hit the limit down [1] Top Performing Stocks - The leading sectors for stocks hitting the daily limit up included basic chemicals, transportation, and construction decoration, with 9, 9, and 8 stocks respectively [1] - Notable stocks with the highest limit up included *ST Wanfang and ST Xifa, among 19 ST stocks. *ST Ningke achieved 8 consecutive limit up days, the highest among all [1] - HNA Holding was the most favored stock by funds, with a limit up order volume of 33,086,770 shares, followed by Shanzi Gaoke and Jiamei Packaging with 27,611,280 shares and 12,314,290 shares respectively [1] Limit Up Stocks Data - The top limit up stocks by order volume included: - Shengtong Energy: Closing price 28.75, turnover rate 0.26%, limit up order volume 3,710,940 shares, order amount 1,066.89 million [2] - Shanzi Gaoke: Closing price 3.65, turnover rate 6.85%, limit up order volume 27,611,280 shares, order amount 1,007.81 million [2] - China Duty Free: Closing price 91.09, turnover rate 4.38%, limit up order volume 998,040 shares, order amount 909.11 million [2] - Jiamei Packaging: Closing price 6.68, turnover rate 0.11%, limit up order volume 12,314,290 shares, order amount 822.59 million [2] Industry Insights - The basic chemicals sector had a strong showing with multiple stocks hitting the limit up, indicating robust investor interest [1] - The transportation sector also performed well, with significant order volumes in stocks like HNA Holding and Shanzi Gaoke, suggesting positive market sentiment towards this industry [1][2]

行业研究·行业快评 纺织服饰 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师： 丁诗洁 0755-81981391 dingshijie@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980520040004 证券分析师： 刘佳琪 010-88005446 liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980523070003 事项： 公司公告：2025年12月18日，耐克披露截至2025年11月30日的2026财年第二季度业绩：公司实现收入124 亿美元，同比+1%，不变汇率口径0%。 国信纺服观点：1）业绩和指引核心观点：FY2026Q2 业绩略好于管理层此前指引和彭博一致预期、各区 域和渠道恢复速度有差异、大中华区压力较大，Q3 指引不及彭博一致预期，管理层表示公司处于恢复 的中期阶段；2）FY2026Q2 业绩：收入整体好于管理层指引及彭博一致预期，北美地区及批发渠道引领 增长，鞋类收入降幅收窄、跑鞋引领增长、经典鞋款拖累，中国市场和 Converse 品牌持续承压，毛利 率下降幅度与管理层指引一致；3）分地区：北美表现强劲，大中华区压力显著，各地区批发渠道增长 普遍优于直营，北美、大中华区、亚太拉 ...

Core Conclusions - The overall valuation of A-shares has contracted this week, with the retail trade sector leading the gains. The Ministry of Commerce recently held a meeting to promote the "Three New" (new consumption formats, new models, new scenarios) pilot work, providing policy support for industry recovery. The concept of "reward economy" has emerged, further boosting sentiment in the consumption sector. Currently, the overall PB (LF) of the retail trade sector is at the historical 37.0 percentile, indicating significant room for valuation improvement [1][8]. Valuation Overview - This week, the overall PE (TTM) of A-shares decreased from 21.74 times last week to 21.73 times this week, while the PB (LF) remained stable at 1.77 times [10]. - The main board's PE (TTM) increased from 17.46 times last week to 17.54 times this week, and the PB (LF) rose from 1.48 times to 1.49 times [17]. - The ChiNext's PE (TTM) fell from 72.27 times to 71.32 times, and the PB (LF) decreased from 4.27 times to 4.21 times [19]. - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board's PE (TTM) dropped from 210.87 times to 205.59 times, and the PB (LF) fell from 5.17 times to 5.04 times [25]. Relative Valuation Analysis - The relative PE (TTM) of computing power infrastructure, excluding operators/resource categories, decreased from 4.47 times last week to 4.28 times this week, while the relative PB (LF) fell from 4.66 times to 4.46 times [28]. - In terms of static PE (TTM), major industries such as discretionary consumption, consumer staples, midstream manufacturing, cyclical, and midstream materials have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, with discretionary consumption and consumer staples exceeding the historical 90th percentile [32]. - From the perspective of PB (LF), industries like resources, TMT, cyclical, and midstream manufacturing have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, while discretionary consumption, midstream materials, financial services, services, and consumer staples are below the historical median [34]. Dynamic Valuation Insights - Analyzing the full dynamic PE, industries such as discretionary consumption, midstream manufacturing, cyclical, and midstream materials have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, with discretionary consumption exceeding the historical 90th percentile [41]. - The current comparison of odds (PB historical percentiles) and win rates (ROE historical percentiles) indicates that industries like agriculture, public utilities, and oil and petrochemicals exhibit characteristics of low valuation and high profitability [59]. - The comparison of odds (full dynamic PE) and win rates (25-26 consensus expected net profit compound growth rate) shows that industries such as building materials, power equipment, media, and defense industry possess both low valuations and high performance growth [62]. ERP and Yield Spread - The non-financial ERP of A-shares increased from 0.87% last week to 0.89% this week, while the equity-debt yield spread improved from -0.12% to -0.05% [63]. - The full dynamic ERP of key non-financial companies in A-shares rose from 2.77% to 2.80% this week [70].

Market Overview - On December 19, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3890.45 points, up 0.36%, with a trading volume of 738.1 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13140.21 points, up 0.66%, with a trading volume of 987.849 billion yuan. The ChiNext Index closed at 3122.24 points, up 0.49%, with a trading volume of 444.704 billion yuan. The total trading volume of both markets was 1.725949 trillion yuan, an increase of 70.462 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Sector Performance - Various sectors showed positive performance, with retail, real estate, light industry manufacturing, environmental protection, education, steel, textile and apparel, and automotive sectors leading the gains. Concepts such as duty-free, Hainan Free Trade Zone, rental and sale rights, dairy, beer, community group buying, superconductors, and controllable nuclear fusion were notably active. Conversely, banking, precious metals, and electronics sectors experienced declines [2]. Fund Flow Analysis - The main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced a net outflow of 4.444 billion yuan, with the ChiNext seeing a net outflow of 3.881 billion yuan. However, the CSI 300 index saw a net inflow of 0.988 billion yuan, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board had a net inflow of 0.925 billion yuan. Among the 31 primary industries, 12 sectors had net inflows, with the automotive sector leading at 2.348 billion yuan [3]. Individual Stock Performance - A total of 2077 stocks saw net inflows, with 83 stocks receiving over 1 billion yuan in net inflows. The stock with the highest net inflow was Xue Ren Group, with 1.379 billion yuan, followed by Shan Zi Gao Ke, Aerospace Development, N You Xun, Gan Feng Lithium, and Salt Lake Co., with net inflows of 1.059 billion yuan, 0.928 billion yuan, 0.748 billion yuan, 0.641 billion yuan, and 0.473 billion yuan respectively [5]. Major Sell-offs - There were 3085 stocks that experienced net sell-offs, with 72 stocks seeing over 1 billion yuan in net outflows. The stock with the highest net outflow was Meinian Health, with 0.942 billion yuan, followed by Saiwei Electronics, Shunhao Co., Shenghong Technology, and Xiangnan Chip, with net outflows of 0.719 billion yuan, 0.545 billion yuan, 0.500 billion yuan, and 0.481 billion yuan respectively [7]. Institutional Activity - According to the post-market data, institutional investors had a net sell of approximately 27.7851 million yuan, with 11 stocks seeing net purchases and 12 stocks experiencing net sales. The stock with the highest net purchase was Aerospace Intelligence, with 90.6183 million yuan, followed by Shan Zi Gao Ke, West Materials, and Hua Ren Health [9][10].

（文章来源：证券时报网） Choice统计显示，12月19日，沪深两市可交易A股中，上涨个股有4239只，下跌个股有858只，平盘个 股有66只。不含当日上市新股，共有84只个股涨停，7只个股跌停。从所属行业来看，涨停个股主要集 中在化工、机械设备、汽车、商贸零售、医药生物、纺织服饰等行业。 ...