贵金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 期货研究报告 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 贵金属 | 周报 · 2026 年 1 月 26 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 金价持续强势 核心观点 上周金价持续上涨，纽约金由 4600 美元上涨逼近 5000 美元关 口。周中虽然美欧地缘冲突有所缓和，金价经历了短暂的避险情绪降 温。然而，支撑金价长期上涨的多个核心驱动力并未改变，这些力量 共同作用，使得金价在短期调整后仍能持续走强，并维持在历史高位 运行。 从长周期角度，美国将关税等经济和金融工具持续"武器化"的 长期趋势，正在从根本上侵蚀美元信用体系。这一结构性支点动摇， 正加速全球范围内的 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, silver showed strong performance and reached a new historical high, with London silver breaking through the $100 per ounce mark early on Saturday. Geopolitical risks continue, and market risk - aversion sentiment remains strong, driving up precious - metal prices. The upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chairman may become a short - term market focus. In terms of commodity attributes, the silver market is in a supply - shortage state for the fifth consecutive year, and the continuous inflow of global silver ETFs and the decline in COMEX inventory indicate a long - term strong trend for silver. It is recommended to hold AG2604 long positions in the medium term [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View and Strategy 3.1.1 Weekly View - **Silver Trend**: Last week, silver oscillated at a high level and reached a new historical high on Friday. London silver broke through the $100 per ounce mark early on Saturday, closing at $103.341. Driven by the external market, the main contract of Shanghai silver reached a new high of 25,838 yuan per kilogram. The weekly gains of London silver and Shanghai silver were 14.7% and 11% respectively, and the cumulative gains in 2025 were 148% and 129% respectively [7] - **US Economy**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US in the week of January 17th was 200,000, lower than the expected 209,000. The number of continued jobless claims dropped to 1.85 million last week, lower than the expected 1.89 million, the lowest level since November. The US GDP in the third quarter had a quarter - on - quarter growth of 4.4%, the fastest growth rate in two years [7] - **Inflation**: In November, the overall PCE price index in the US increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. The core PCE price index also increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. The market is focused on the upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, which may affect expectations of the Fed's future interest - rate path [7] - **Interest Rates**: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond remained the same as the previous week, and the US dollar index weakened continuously last week [7] - **Supply and Demand**: In 2025, the global silver market is expected to have a supply - demand gap of over 100 million ounces, and the market has been in a supply - shortage state for the fifth consecutive year. As of January 23, 2026, the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, SLV, were 16,090 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1%. COMEX inventory declined continuously last week. LBMA inventory dropped to a historical low, and most of the silver is linked to ETFs and cannot be freely circulated, so the available inventory is tight [7] - **Price Difference**: The price difference between domestic and foreign silver futures narrowed last week, closing at 1,845. The gold - silver ratio in London spot market closed below 50, at 48.20 [7] 3.1.2 Strategy - It is recommended to hold AG2604 long positions in the medium term [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the price trends of COMEX silver futures, London silver spot, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver futures, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver through charts [11][15] 3.3 US Economy - The report shows the trends of US GDP, PMI, new non - farm payrolls, and unemployment rate through charts [22][23] 3.4 Inflation - It presents the trends of US CPI/PCE and core CPI/PCE through charts [28][31] 3.5 Interest Rates - It shows the trends of US Treasury bond yields (short - term and medium - long - term) and real interest rates through charts [37][39] 3.6 Fundamentals 3.6.1 Global Silver Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2025, global silver supply is expected to be 1.0306 billion ounces (a 2% year - on - year increase), and demand is expected to be 1.1482 billion ounces (a 1% year - on - year decrease), with a supply - demand gap of 117.6 million ounces (a 21% year - on - year decrease) [43] 3.6.2 Silver Demand - The report presents the trend of silver ETF holdings through a chart [44] 3.6.3 Silver Inventory - It shows the trends of COMEX silver inventory, LBMA silver inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory through charts [47][53] 3.7 US Dollar Index and Exchange Rates - It presents the trends of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, euro against the US dollar, US dollar against the Japanese yen, British pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the Canadian dollar through charts [58][64][66] 3.8 Silver Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - It shows the trends of domestic and foreign silver futures and their price differences through charts [75] 3.9 Silver Basis - It presents the trends of domestic and foreign silver basis through charts [80][85] 3.10 Gold - Silver Ratio - It shows the trends of the gold - silver ratio in SHFE and COMEX through a chart [88]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided for the industry in the report Group 2: Core Views - Gold is expected to continue its short - term oscillatory and bullish trend, while silver may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, and both should watch out for Trump's TACO risk on geopolitical issues [1][2] - The medium - to long - term upward support logic for gold remains unchanged, and the medium - to long - term bullish support for silver is still strong [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Due to the escalation of disputes between Europe and the US over Greenland, bond market volatility, and Poland's central bank's plan to increase gold purchases, the intraday gold price continued to rise and hit a new high. COMEX gold once reached $4891 per ounce, and Shanghai gold touched 1100 yuan per gram. The tense situation in Greenland and tariff threats continue to support the gold price. Trump's latest stance on Greenland has eased. The short - term bullish trend of gold is still supported, and attention should be paid to the progress of relevant US events [2] Silver - The intraday silver price fluctuated at a high level. COMEX silver fluctuated around $94 per ounce, and Shanghai silver was around 23,000 yuan per kilogram. Supported by the tense situation between Europe and the US over Greenland, the high volatility of silver, stable short - term lease rates at 4% - 6%, and the suspension of key mineral tariff increases are also having an impact. It is expected that the silver price will continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term [2] Commodity Index - The comprehensive index includes special indices such as the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index, with increases of 0.56%, 0.61%, 0.35%, and 0.20% respectively [45] Precious Metals Index - As of January 21, 2026, the precious metals index was 4531.41, with a daily increase of 2.20%, a 5 - day increase of 4.24%, a 1 - month increase of 18.59%, and a year - to - date increase of 18.49% [46]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that international precious metal prices are rising due to increased investor demand for safe-haven assets, driven by the U.S. threat to impose tariffs on several European countries [1][2] - On February 20, during the Asian trading session, the New York gold futures price briefly surpassed $4,700 per ounce, while silver futures reached a high of $94.75 per ounce, marking new historical intraday highs for both metals [1][2] - As of 13:40 Beijing time on February 20, the most actively traded February gold futures price was reported at $4,710.11 per ounce, reflecting a 2.5% increase; the most actively traded March silver futures price was at $94.42 per ounce, with a 6.64% rise [1][2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The market may be more affected by the impact of US economic data on Federal Reserve policy expectations and geopolitical situation disturbances. In general, the short - term news impact weakens, the market maintains a relatively strong oscillation, and the volatility declines. Gold long - positions above the 20 - day moving average can be held, and out - of - the - money put options can be sold to earn time value [1] - For silver, the short - term suspension of the 232 investigation tariff by the US and the exchange's position - limit measures have eased the capital sentiment. The price may enter a high - level oscillation. Unilateral trading should be cautious, and out - of - the - money options can be sold to earn volatility - reduction returns [1] - Platinum and palladium are affected by the macro and supply - demand fundamentals and follow the relatively strong oscillation of gold in the short term, but the fluctuation space narrows. Platinum futures are recommended to be traded in a high - selling and low - buying manner around the 20 - day moving average, with a fluctuation range of 587 - 640 yuan. Palladium shows relatively weaker performance than platinum, and out - of - the - money call options above 510 yuan can be sold [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2604 contract closed at 1048.88 yuan/gram on January 19, up 16.56 yuan (1.60%) from January 16 [1] - AG2604 contract closed at 23,189 yuan/10 grams on January 19, up 706 yuan (3.14%) from January 16 [1] - PT2606 contract closed at 615.10 yuan/gram on January 19, up 5.05 yuan (0.83%) from January 16 [1] - PD2606 contract closed at 477.95 yuan on January 19, up 8.60 yuan (1.83%) from January 16 [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力合约 closed at 4,601.10 dollars/ounce on January 19, down 19.40 dollars (- 0.42%) from January 16 [1] - COMEX silver主力合约 closed at 89.95 dollars/ounce on January 19, down 2.27 dollars (- 2.46%) from January 16 [1] - NYMEX platinum主力合约 closed at 2,342.90 dollars/ounce on January 19, down 72.90 dollars (- 3.02%) from January 16 [1] - NYMEX palladium主力合约 closed at 1,846.50 dollars/ounce on January 19, down 19.00 dollars (- 1.02%) from January 16 [1] Spot Prices - London gold was at 4,671.72 dollars/ounce, up 72.68 dollars (1.58%) from the previous value [1] - London silver was at 94.40 dollars/ounce, up 4.26 dollars (4.73%) from the previous value [1] - Spot platinum was at 2,374.54 dollars/ounce, up 46.09 dollars (1.98%) from the previous value [1] - Spot palladium was at 1,841.56 dollars/ounce, up 41.81 dollars (2.32%) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1,045.27 yuan/gram, up 14.18 yuan (1.38%) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 23,136 yuan/10 grams, up 495 yuan (2.19%) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 605 yuan/gram, up 3 yuan (0.45%) from the previous value [1] Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold主力: The current value was - 3.61, down 2.38 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1] - Silver TD - Shanghai silver主力: The current value was - 53, down 211 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [1] - London gold - COMEX gold: The current value was - 2.06, up 2.92 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 92.90% [1] - London silver - COMEX silver: The current value was 0.19, unchanged from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 90.00% [1] Price Ratios - COMEX gold/silver: The current value was 51.15, up 1.05 (2.09%) from the previous value [1] - SHFE gold/silver: The current value was 45.23, down 0.68 (- 1.49%) from the previous value [1] - NYMEX palladium/platinum: The current value was 1.27, down 0.03 (- 2.02%) from the previous value [1] - GZFE platinum/palladium: The current value was 1.29, down 0.01 (- 0.99%) from the previous value [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year US Treasury yield: The current value was 4.24%, up 0.09% (2.2%) from the previous value [1] - 2 - year US Treasury yield: The current value was 3.59%, up 0.08% (2.3%) from the previous value [1] - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield: The current value was 1.91%, up 0.05% (2.7%) from the previous value [1] - US dollar index: The current value was 99.04, down 0.33 (- 0.33%) from the previous value [1] - Offshore RMB exchange rate: The current value was 6.9568, down 0.0106 from the previous value [1] Inventory and Positions - SHFE gold inventory: The current value was 1,000,530 grams, down 63 grams (- 0.06%) from the previous value [1] - SHFE silver inventory: The current value was 617,760 kilograms, down 9,083 kilograms (- 1.45%) from the previous value [1] - COMEX gold inventory: The current value was 36,135,901 ounces, up 3,000 ounces (0.01%) from the previous value [1] - COMEX silver inventory: The current value was 429,156,441 ounces, down 4,225,669 ounces (- 0.98%) from the previous value [1] - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts: The current value was 18,864,397 ounces, up 40,600 ounces (0.22%) from the previous value [1] - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts: The current value was 120,632,557 ounces, down 2,571,966 ounces (- 2.09%) from the previous value [1] - SPDR gold ETF position: The current value was 1,086 tons, up 10.87 tons (1.01%) from the previous value [1] - SLV silver ETF position: The current value was 16,073 tons, up 11.28 tons (0.07%) from the previous value [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising prices of precious metals, particularly gold and silver, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [1][2]. - On January 19, 2026 gold futures rose by 1.77%, closing at $4,676.70 per ounce, while silver futures for March delivery increased by 6.49%, closing at $94.28 per ounce [1][3]. - The announcement by U.S. President Trump regarding the imposition of tariffs on goods from several European countries has heightened concerns over transatlantic trade relations, further boosting the demand for precious metals [1]. Group 2 - The World Economic Forum's latest report indicates that global economic leaders view geopolitical economic confrontation as the primary risk for the year, which may contribute to sustained strong upward momentum in precious metal prices [2]. - The market sentiment has shifted from focusing solely on growth or inflation to prioritizing policy uncertainty as a key driver, suggesting potential volatility in the precious metals market [1].

Group 1 - The international precious metals futures experienced significant gains on January 19, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.77% to $4,676.7 per ounce [1] - COMEX silver futures saw an increase of 6.49%, reaching $94.28 per ounce [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market may be more affected by the impact of US economic data on the Fed's policy expectations and geopolitical situation disturbances. In the short - term, the influence of news is weakening, the market maintains a relatively strong shock but the volatility declines. For gold, those holding long positions above the 20 - day moving average can continue to hold, and selling out - of - the - money put options can earn time value [1]. - For silver, the cancellation of photovoltaic export tax rebates by the country after April 1 may bring the "rush to export" effect again, advancing the demand for silver powder and intensifying the supply - structural shortage. Short - term fluctuations are still volatile, and it is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips with light positions, while long positions should lock in profits in time when the price is high [1]. - For platinum and palladium, due to their strong macro and supply - demand fundamentals and the fact that their prices are still undervalued compared to gold, capital promotes value reshaping. It is expected to continue to rise in the medium - and long - term. In the short - term, market speculative sentiment weakens, the volatility narrows, but it still follows the relatively strong shock of gold. It is recommended to buy platinum on dips with light positions around the 20 - day moving average [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2602 contract closed at 1035.20 yuan/gram on January 15, down 0.52% from the previous day [1]. - AG2604 contract closed at 22665 yuan/kilogram on January 15, down 0.43% from the previous day [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 609.05 yuan/gram on January 15, down 2.21% from the previous day [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 478.60 yuan/gram on January 15, down 5.25% from the previous day [1]. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4620.50 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 0.29% from the previous day [1]. - COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 92.21 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 1.05% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 2415.80 dollars/ounce on January 15, up 0.55% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 1865.50 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 0.90% from the previous day [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at 4615.52 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 0.23% from the previous day [1]. - London silver was at 92.40 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 0.65% from the previous day [1]. - Spot platinum was at 2408.00 dollars/ounce on January 15, up 0.46% from the previous day [1]. - Spot palladium was at 1812.00 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 1.79% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T + D was at 1033.92 yuan/gram on January 15, down 0.36% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T + D was at 22684 yuan/kilogram on January 15, down 0.36% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum 9995 was at 597 yuan/gram on January 15, down 0.34% from the previous day [1]. Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 1.28, up 1.73 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1]. - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was 19, up 17 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [1]. - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 4.98, up 2.82 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 87.80% [1]. - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was 0.19, up 0.37 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 90.00% [1]. Price Ratios - The ratio of COMEX gold/silver was 50.11 on January 15, up 0.77% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver was 45.67 on January 15, down 0.09% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.29 on January 15, up 1.46% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium was 1.27 on January 15, up 3.21% from the previous day [1]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.17% on January 15, up 0.5% from the previous day [1]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.56% on January 15, up 1.4% from the previous day [1]. - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.88% on January 15, up 1.1% from the previous day [1]. - The US dollar index was 99.34 on January 15, up 0.27% from the previous day [1]. - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9631 on January 15, down 0.12% from the previous day [1]. Inventory and Positions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 100152 kilograms on January 15, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 638399 kilograms on January 15, up 1.54% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold inventory was 36132901 ounces on January 15, down 0.23% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver inventory was 433382110 ounces on January 15, down 0.23% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 18838070 ounces on January 15, down 2.31% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 122741960 ounces on January 15, down 0.20% from the previous day [1]. - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1075 tons on January 15, up 0.05% from the previous day [1]. - The SLV silver ETF position was 16062 tons on January 15, down 1.11% from the previous day [1].

Market Analysis - The Fed's Beige Book shows that 8 out of 12 Fed districts reported slight to moderate economic growth, 3 reported no change, and 1 reported a slight decline, an improvement from the previous three reporting periods [1]. - Most banks reported slight to moderate growth in consumer spending during this period, mainly due to the holiday shopping season [1]. - Geopolitically, the US State Department urged US citizens to leave Iran immediately, the third such alert in five days, and the US is withdrawing some personnel from major bases in the Middle East. Iran warned it is in the highest state of combat readiness and will attack US military bases if the US strikes [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On January 14, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1028.82 yuan/gram and closed at 1040.62 yuan/gram, up 1.31% from the previous trading day's close, with a trading volume of 41087 lots and an open interest of 129725 lots. The night - session closed at 1039.72 yuan/gram, down 0.09% from the afternoon close [2]. - On the same day, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 21431.00 yuan/kg and closed at 22763.00 yuan/kg, up 8.37% from the previous trading day's close, with a trading volume of 1276402 lots and an open interest of 344654 lots. The night - session closed at 23270 yuan/kg, up 2.23% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 14, 2026, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.126%, down 4.9 BP from the previous trading day, and the 10 - year to 2 - year spread was 0.623%, down 2.4 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume - On January 14, 2026, in the Au2602 contract, long positions decreased by 6569 lots and short positions decreased by 297 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 401839 lots, up 8.37% from the previous trading day [4]. - In the Ag2604 contract, long positions increased by 4556 lots and short positions decreased by 411 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 2724888 lots, up 14.36% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1074.23 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF position was 16321 tons, down 27 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On January 14, 2026, the domestic gold premium was - 2.57 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 880.39 yuan/kg [6]. - The price ratio of the main SHFE gold and silver contracts was about 45.72, down 6.52% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 53.40, down 2.14% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On January 14, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 66216 kg, up 14.16% from the previous trading day, and the trading volume of silver was 812282 kg, up 15.99% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 450 kg [7]. Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. Market risk sentiment is rising, increasing the demand for gold investment. The price of gold is expected to be mainly oscillating and strengthening, with the Au2602 contract oscillating between 1020 yuan/gram and 1050 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: Cautiously bullish. Silver prices are rising with gold, and due to the recovery of risk sentiment, silver is slightly stronger than gold, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to narrow. The price of silver is also expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening pattern, with the Ag2604 contract oscillating between 22800 yuan/kg and 24000 yuan/kg [8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [9]. - Options: Put on hold [9]

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals futures have seen a significant rise, with gold and silver prices reaching historic highs due to geopolitical and economic uncertainties prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets, alongside expectations of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.76% to $4,633.90 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures surged by 7.93% to $93.19 per ounce [3][5]. - Spot silver briefly rose over 7%, marking the first time it surpassed the $93 per ounce threshold, and spot gold reached a new record high of $4,643 per ounce [3][5]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Allegiance Gold's COO, Alex Ebkarian, indicated that the demand from various buyers is driving the market into a structural bull phase, suggesting a strong future for gold and silver [4][7]. - Ebkarian forecasts that precious metals will maintain an upward trend throughout the first quarter, with short-term predictions for silver prices ranging between $100 and $144 [5][7].