供应格局面临重大调整 刚果（金）政府于6月21日正式宣布，将钴出口临时禁令再度延长三个月。这一决定由该国战略矿产市场监管局作出，理由是市场库存量持续维持高位。此 次延长措施适用于刚果（金）境内所有形式的钴开采活动，涵盖工业、半工业、小规模及手工开采等各个层面。 刚果（金）在全球钴供应体系中占据绝对主导地位。根据美国地质调查局数据，2024年该国钴矿储量达600万吨，占全球总储量的55%。同时，刚果（金） 钴矿年产量约22万吨，在全球28.8万吨总产量中占比高达76.4%。这种高度集中的供应结构使得该国政策调整对全球市场产生深远影响。 钴价格在过去几年经历了大幅波动。从2022年3月的57万元每吨高位，一路下跌至今年2月的16万元每吨历史低点。首轮出口禁令实施后，电解钴价格快速反 弹至25万元每吨，随后回调至23万元每吨附近震荡。 本轮禁令延长预计将对供需平衡产生更为深刻的影响。按照7个月禁令期计算，预计将影响刚果（金）约12.8万吨的钴出口量。这一数字占2024年全球钴年 产量的40%以上，足以改变整个行业的供需格局。在印尼湿法镍伴生钴增量相对有限的背景下，全球钴市场可能从供应过剩转向短缺状态。 6月23日， ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the successful trial of brain-machine interfaces for restoring paralysis, indicating advancements in domestic core technology and potential investment opportunities in related stocks such as Innovation Medical and Sanbo Brain Science [7] - The Democratic Republic of the Congo has extended its ban on raw material exports for three months, which is expected to elevate cobalt prices, presenting investment prospects in companies like Huayou Cobalt and Tengyuan Mining [7] - Huawei's patent for "four-chip packaging" has drawn attention to advanced packaging materials, with potential implications for stocks like Feikai Materials and Debang Technology [7] Industry Dynamics - The report notes the successful trial of brain-machine interfaces, which could lead to significant advancements in medical technology and related investments [7] - The extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is likely to impact global cobalt prices, creating opportunities for investment in mining companies [7] - The exposure of Huawei's advanced packaging technology may influence the semiconductor and materials sectors, highlighting potential growth areas for investors [7] Company Focus - Cangge Mining plans to sign a financial services agreement with Zijin Finance, aiming to become a member unit for three years [9] - Yipin Hong's wholly-owned subsidiary has received a registration certificate for injectable Zolpidem, indicating progress in pharmaceutical development [9] - Naipu Mining's application for issuing convertible bonds has been accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, suggesting potential capital raising for expansion [9] - Tianrongxin is involved in key infrastructure security projects for digital currencies in the financial sector, reflecting its strategic positioning in emerging technologies [9] Market Review and Outlook - On June 23, the market experienced a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index leading the gains, and a total trading volume of 1.12 trillion yuan, an increase of 549 billion yuan from the previous trading day [11] - The report notes that over 4,400 stocks rose, with significant gains in sectors such as stablecoin concepts, shipping, and solid-state batteries, indicating a positive market sentiment [11] - The outlook suggests that while the market is rebounding, the lack of substantial incremental capital may hinder a sustained upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to fluctuate between 3,410 and 3,330 [11] - Key themes to watch include shipping, oil and gas, stablecoins, and solid-state batteries, as these sectors show the best continuity in performance [11]

每经记者｜杨建 每经编辑｜彭水萍 1、美股三大指数集体收涨，标普500指数涨0.96%，纳指涨0.94%；大型科技股多数上涨，特斯拉大涨 超8%，创4月28日以来最大单日涨幅；稳定币第一股Circle涨超9%，上市以来累涨约750%。中概股多数 上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.85%；搜狐涨近10%，理想汽车涨近8%，新东方涨超5%，小鹏汽 车、再鼎医药涨逾4%。 点评：自2022年以来，供需失衡使得钴价持续下行，国内电钴价格于今年年初最低跌至约15万元/吨。 今年6月21日，刚果(金)宣布钴原料禁令延长3个月，以延长其遏制国际市场供应过剩的努力。从全年维 度来看，对钴价持乐观态度，预计国内电钴价格有望重回25万元/吨上方运行。刚果(金)可能实施钴出口 配额来提升对于钴的定价权，钴价中枢有望抬升。民生证券研报认为，刚果(金)出口禁令导致全球供应 链中断风险加剧，短期供应扰动或进一步推升价格。概念股包括腾远钴业、寒锐钴业、华友钴业等。 （三）避雷针 （一）重要市场新闻 2、国际油价大幅走低，美油主力合约报67.23美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约跌8.37%，报69.16美元/ 桶。欧洲三大股指收盘小幅下跌，德国D ...

Core Viewpoint - The temporary ban on cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has been extended for an additional three months, now lasting a total of seven months, in response to an oversupply in the global cobalt market [1][7]. Industry Impact - The extension of the cobalt export ban has led to a rise in the energy metals sector, with companies like Tengyuan Cobalt (301219.SZ) seeing a stock price increase of 15.42%, and other firms such as Hanrui Cobalt (300618.SZ) and Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH) also experiencing significant gains [1]. - Cobalt prices have increased, with the average price of electrolytic cobalt reported at 244,000 yuan/ton, up by 8,500 yuan from the previous working day [1]. Company Responses - Major Chinese cobalt producers, including Luoyang Molybdenum and Huayou Cobalt, have indicated that their operations in the DRC are not significantly impacted by the export ban extension. Luoyang Molybdenum reported a cobalt production of 114,200 tons last year, a 106% increase year-on-year, while Huayou Cobalt noted that its cobalt capacity is primarily based in Indonesia, minimizing the impact of the DRC ban [2][4]. - Analysts suggest that domestic cobalt refining companies may face pressure due to increased uncertainty in cobalt raw material supply, although they currently have sufficient inventory to continue production [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The DRC is the largest cobalt producer globally, accounting for 76% of the world's cobalt production last year [5]. - Prior to the ban, cobalt prices had already dropped nearly 70% from their peak in Q1 2022, indicating a significant oversupply in the market [6]. - The ban's extension is expected to affect 128,000 tons of cobalt exports from the DRC this year, potentially shifting the global cobalt market from oversupply to a shortage by 2025, which could drive prices up [8]. Future Outlook - Industry experts have mixed views on whether the DRC's export ban will effectively alter the global cobalt supply-demand balance. Some predict short-term price increases driven by market sentiment, while others caution that without sufficient demand, the oversupply may persist [8][9]. - The DRC's strategy may include measures to enhance its pricing power in the cobalt market, although the implications of such strategies on the overall market dynamics remain uncertain [9].

Core Viewpoint - The extension of the cobalt export ban by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to lead to a significant increase in cobalt prices, similar to past occurrences, impacting both the domestic cobalt market and related stocks. Group 1: Market Reactions - The DRC's strategic mineral market regulator announced a three-month extension of the cobalt export ban, causing a sharp reaction in the domestic cobalt product and securities markets, with companies like Hanrui Cobalt and Huayou Cobalt seeing notable stock price increases, and Tengyuan Cobalt rising over 15% [1] - On June 23, the price of 1 cobalt in the Changjiang spot market surged by 22,000 yuan to 256,000 yuan per ton, marking the largest single-day increase in nearly a decade [1] - Other cobalt products, including electrolytic cobalt and cobalt tetroxide, also experienced price increases ranging from 5,000 to 9,000 yuan [1] Group 2: Supply Chain Impact - Currently, the price increase is concentrated in the upstream of the supply chain, with no significant transmission to downstream lithium cobalt oxide battery materials, as prices remain stable and purchasing sentiment is cautious [2] - The DRC's previous export ban in February led to a rapid price rebound for electrolytic cobalt, which rose from approximately 162,500 yuan per ton to 247,600 yuan within a month [2] Group 3: Future Supply and Demand Dynamics - The extension of the export ban has prompted a reevaluation of the supply-demand relationship in the cobalt industry for the year, with the DRC expected to produce 220,000 tons of cobalt in 2024, accounting for 76% of global production [4] - According to CITIC Securities, the ban could affect the DRC's cobalt export volume in 2025 by 128,000 tons, potentially shifting the global cobalt market from oversupply to a shortage of 78,000 tons, which may trigger a new wave of price increases [4] - The three-month shipping period from the DRC to China means that the impact of the previous export ban on domestic supply will only be felt gradually, with the current extension increasing the risk of raw material shortages for domestic smelting companies [4][5] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The export ban is expected to create only a temporary supply contraction rather than a fundamental shift in long-term supply-demand dynamics [6] - Major cobalt producer Luoyang Molybdenum Co. stated that their production operations remain normal and that the extended ban is not expected to significantly impact their financial performance [7] - Even if cobalt prices rise to 300,000 yuan or 400,000 yuan per ton, the resumption of cobalt exports from the DRC would likely lead to a price decline, indicating that the DRC's export policies are a key variable influencing cobalt price trends this year [9]

23日，A股午后全线走高，沪指一度涨近1%；港股亦上扬，恒生科技指数涨近1%。 具体来看，两市股指午后在券商、银行等板块的带动下发力走高，上证50指数较为强势。截至收盘，沪 指涨0.65%报3381.58点，深证成指涨0.43%报10048.39点，创业板指涨0.39%报2017.63点，北证50指数涨 1.54%，沪深北三市合计成交11471亿元，较此前一日增加约550亿元。 场内超4400股飘红，石油板块延续强势，茂化实华连续3日涨停，准油股份7日斩获6板；航运板块爆 发，宁波海运、保税科技涨停斩获两连板，连云港、宁波远洋、南京港等均涨停；跨境支付概念强势， 四方精创涨停续创历史新高，优博讯、吉大正元等均涨停；钴金属概念等活跃，腾远钴业涨超15%，寒 锐钴业涨超9%。此外，券商、银行板块均有所表现，光大证券、中金公司等涨超2%，浦发银行、农业 银行、工商银行等均创出新高。 港股方面，香港恒生指数收涨0.67%，恒生科技指数涨1.05%。毛戈平涨超7%，百济神州涨超6%，理想 汽车涨超5%，中芯国际、华虹半导体涨超4%；博雷顿跌超4%，沪上阿姨跌超3%。 石油、航运概念强势 石油板块今日再度走强，截至收盘， ...

Market Overview - The A-share market opened lower but closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.65% to 3381.58 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 11,226 billion yuan, an increase of 549 billion yuan compared to last Friday [1] - The market showed a broad-based rally, with active sectors including innovative drugs, copper-clad laminate industry, cobalt metals, and cross-border payment concepts [1] Sector Performance - The innovative drug sector was notably active, with companies like ShenZhou Cell rising by 16.66% and Junshi Biosciences increasing by 5.15% [1] - The copper-clad laminate industry saw Huazheng New Materials increase by 6.17% [1] - The cobalt metal sector experienced significant gains, with Tengyuan Cobalt rising by 15.42% [1] - Cross-border payment concept stocks also surged, with notable increases in companies like Lakala and Sifang Jingchuang [1] Competition and Incentives - The 64th session of the "Digging Gold" competition began, with participants using simulated capital of 500,000 yuan [1][3] - Participants can earn rewards based on positive returns, with weekly and monthly cash prizes available [3][5] - The competition encourages participants to engage with market trends and investment strategies through a dedicated WeChat group [3][8] Technical Analysis - Market experts noted that the Shanghai Composite Index is currently supported by the 90-day moving average, with a resistance level at 3400 points, indicating a range-bound trading pattern [4] - A significant increase in trading volume is necessary for a potential breakout above the 3400-point resistance [4] Investment Opportunities - Experts are optimistic about high-dividend assets such as insurance, highways, and water supply [5] - There is a positive outlook on sectors like copper-clad laminates, 5G, semiconductors, and AI chips [5]

关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ -广告- 在 3 月份市场出现钴涨价预期后，下游开始疯狂备货，受成本影响最大的就是钴酸锂品种， 3-4 月份下 游备货量猛增，头部企业的锁价订单签到了 6 月，而钴酸锂的价格也较去年年底最低位反弹了近 75.2% 。但由于下游预期提前消化， 从 5 月份开始，市场的出货又回归了正常，甚至低迷，原料企业率先松动 了价格，加上下游需求受阻，钴酸锂、三元材料的价格开始出现回落。 从市场情绪面来看，今天 A 股市场一开盘，钴概念股集体走强，其中， 腾远钴业一度 20CM 涨停，寒锐 钴业涨超 13% ，华友钴业涨 7% 。 期货市场也上涨明显。 | 10:33 | | | 6 47 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | App Store | | | | | | ਣ ਛੋ | 集阳中联金 | | 中马中联金 | G | | 商品/交付月份 最新价 | | 价格变化 采购价 | | 销售价 | | 站 | 243.50 | +22 | 242 | 243.50 | | 25年06月 | | ...

6月23日，A股三大指数集体低开。截至发稿，创业板指和深证成指翻红。北证50指数涨近0.5%，科创50指数涨近1%。 盘面上，油气、航运等题材走强；机器人、短剧、IP经济、EDA、算力、稀土永磁、AI应用概念股走弱。 恒生指数和恒生科技指数低开。京东集团-SW跌近2%领跌蓝筹。油气股涨幅居前，山东墨龙（002490）、MI能源一度 涨近15%。三只新股今日上市，药捷安康-B盘中大涨逾72%，佰泽医疗涨超22%。 亚太市场方面，日经225指数、韩国综合指数、新加坡海峡指数、澳洲标普200指数下跌近1%。 油气股、航运股活跃 早盘，油气股再度活跃，茂化实华（000637）3连板，神开股份（002278）涨停，科力股份、新锦动力（300157）、通 源石油（300164）等涨幅居前。消息面上，早盘WTI原油主力期货一度涨超6%。 港股方面，航运及港口股也逆势走高,截至发稿，德翔海运涨超17%,中远海能、象兴国际涨超7%。 消息面上，据央视新闻报道，伊朗议会国家安全委员会委员库萨里表示，伊朗议会已得出结论，认为应关闭霍尔木兹海 峡，但最终决定权在伊朗最高国家安全委员会手中。 有色钴概念股拉升 有色钴概念股震荡走强，截 ...

钴行业专家会： 刚果金再延长 3 个月出口禁令，影响如何 看待？20250622 摘要 刚果金延长钴出口禁令旨在消化中国高企的钴原料库存，此前禁令曾推 动钴原料价格上涨近 100%，金属钴价格上涨约 50%，原料价格上涨速 度明显快于成品。 中国钴原料进口量在禁令前四个月并未减少，但库存仍未完全消化。预 计 7 月后，中国企业可能面临原料短缺，中小企业或率先停产，大型企 业也将降低产能。 钴价未来走势或分两阶段：短期内受刚果金政策影响，电子盘和现货市 场价格波动；7 月底至 8 月中旬，企业原料库存不足可能再次推高价格， 并引发产业链生产结构调整。 目前钴供应增速仍大于需求增速，短期内供需基本面不会显著变化。国 内厂商需应对 7 月份可能出现的进口量减少，前期库存（包括原材料和 贸易商库存）是关键。 行业库存约七八万吨，原料端占比约 50%。若无锡电子盘涨至 24-25 万元，可能出现获利了结，影响工期。原料端价格预计上涨幅度大于金 属钴。 Q&A 刚果金最近发布的政策对钴行业有哪些影响？ 刚果金政府最近发布了一项文件，主要内容包括延长禁止出口钴的禁令。这一 禁令将从 6 月 22 日开始，再延长三个月，涉及 ...