Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that the supply-demand reversal is expected to lead to an upward shift in copper prices, with a long-term price target above $10,500 per ton [6] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are expected to continue their upward trend, with gold rising by 1.89% and silver by 6.92% in the recent week [5] - The report highlights that cobalt prices are likely to maintain an upward trend due to the implementation of export policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 6752.28, with a weekly high of 6795.38 and a low of 4280.14 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals saw LME copper increase by 2.09%, while aluminum decreased by 1.01% and zinc by 0.41% [20] - Precious metals experienced significant gains, with COMEX gold up by 1.89% and silver up by 6.92% [20] - Lithium carbonate prices saw a slight increase of 0.14% [20] Inventory Changes - Global visible copper inventory decreased by 3,021 tons, aluminum by 4,929 tons, and zinc by 8 tons [36][38] - Nickel inventory increased by 990 tons [38] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Shengda Resources, Xingye Silver Tin, Chifeng Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining for potential investment opportunities [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and precious metals, indicating a high level of market activity and potential for growth in these sectors [13][16]. Core Insights - Copper prices have surged due to unexpected production cuts, leading to significant supply shortages and rapid price increases [13]. - Aluminum is showing signs of recovery with inventory levels decreasing and downstream processing rates improving, suggesting a potential for sustained high profitability [15]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to rise further due to market anticipation of continuous interest rate cuts [16]. Summary by Sections Copper - This week, LME copper price increased by 2.09% to $10,205.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper rose by 3.20% to 82,500 yuan per ton [14]. - Supply side: The import copper concentrate processing fee index rose to -$40.36 per ton; national copper inventory decreased by 4,400 tons to 140,100 tons [14]. - Consumption side: Brass rod enterprises' operating rate was 48.49%, showing a slight increase of 0.71 percentage points [14]. Aluminum - This week, LME aluminum price decreased by 1.01% to $2,649.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum fell by 0.24% to 20,700 yuan per ton [15]. - Supply side: Electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas dropped by 21,000 tons to 617,000 tons [15]. - Demand side: Downstream processing enterprises' operating rate increased by 0.8 percentage points to 63.0%, driven by pre-holiday stocking [15]. Precious Metals - This week, COMEX gold price rose by 0.23% to $3,789.80 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings increasing by 5.15 tons to 1,005.72 tons [16]. - The market is experiencing fluctuations due to U.S. tariffs and escalating geopolitical risks, contributing to a volatile trading environment [16]. Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased, while the export volume of magnetic materials saw significant growth [32]. - Domestic rare earth separation enterprises are preparing for production halts, indicating potential supply constraints [32]. Antimony - Antimony ingot price is at 174,900 yuan per ton, showing a decrease of 2.26% [33]. - The demand for antimony is expected to recover as the photovoltaic glass market stabilizes [33]. Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate price is 4,450 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease of 0.45% [34]. - The demand for molybdenum is expected to rise as major steel mills resume procurement [34]. Tin - Tin ingot price increased by 1.74% to 273,700 yuan per ton, with inventory decreasing by 6.14% [35]. - The supply-demand dynamics are favorable, supported by strong inventory levels and demand from the semiconductor sector [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market-A" for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating an expected return that will exceed the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [4]. Core Views - The copper market may enter a bull market phase due to significant production cuts at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine, disrupting the global supply-demand balance [1]. - Precious metals prices continue to rise, with silver breaking through historical highs, driven by geopolitical risks and monetary policy uncertainties [2]. - The G7 and EU are discussing setting a price floor for rare earths, which is expected to positively impact rare earth prices in the short term [1][10]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper prices have shown a week-on-week increase, with LME copper closing at $10,205 per ton (+2.1%) and SHFE copper at 82,470 CNY per ton (+3.3%) [3]. - Supply constraints are evident as Freeport announced a production cut of over 200,000 tons this year due to a landslide at the Grasberg mine [3]. - Demand remains stable, with copper rod and wire cable enterprises operating at 73.78% and 65.44% capacity, respectively [3]. - Social copper inventory as of September 19 is 140,100 tons, a decrease of 8,800 tons from the previous week [3]. Precious Metals - COMEX gold and silver closed at $3,756.8 and $46.1 per ounce, reflecting increases of 2.2% and 8.2% respectively [2]. - The U.S. core PCE price index rose by 0.2% in August, aligning with expectations, while geopolitical tensions have increased due to the U.S. Congress's actions and international recognition of Palestine [2]. Aluminum - LME aluminum closed at $2,649 per ton, down 1.0% from the previous week, while SHFE aluminum was at 20,755 CNY per ton, down 0.24% [4]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production cost is approximately 16,283 CNY per ton, with industry average profits expanding to around 4,487 CNY per ton [4]. Tin - SHFE tin futures closed at 273,600 CNY per ton, up 1.9% [9]. - Market attention is shifting back to fundamentals, with slow recovery in Myanmar and low inventory providing price support [9]. Strategic Metals - Rare earth prices have shown slight declines, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 562,500 CNY per ton and terbium oxide at 7,050,000 CNY per ton [10]. - The G7 and EU's consideration of a price floor for rare earths is expected to provide short-term support for prices [10].

Group 1 - As of the end of August 2025, the total bond custody amount in China reached 174.54 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 1.51 trillion yuan month-on-month, although this was a decrease of 0.24 trillion yuan compared to the end of July [5] - The Democratic Republic of the Congo announced an extension of the cobalt export ban until October 15, 2025, transitioning to a quota system thereafter, with the country accounting for 76.3% of global cobalt production in 2024 [5] - USAC received a five-year exclusive contract from the US Department of Defense worth up to $245 million for the supply of antimony metal ingots, highlighting the strategic value of antimony [5] Group 2 - In the first eight months of 2025, the export growth rates for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers were 1%, -5%, and 45% respectively, while forklifts, machine tools, and industrial sewing machines saw growth rates of 1%, 14%, and 16% respectively [7] - The export growth rates for major engineering machinery categories, including excavators, tractors, and mining machinery, were 14%, 25%, 30%, and 23% respectively [7] Group 3 - The global market size for brain-computer interfaces is expected to reach $7.63 billion by 2029, driven by policy support and demand from conditions like stroke and ALS [8] - The expected dividend yield for Gree Electric exceeded 7% in 2025, with a historical trend indicating a bottoming characteristic, supported by a projected profit of 33 billion yuan and a 52% cash dividend rate [8]

2025 年 9 月 24 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 | | 股指期货 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | IF2510 | 4510.20 | 0.28 | | IF2511 | 4495.40 | 0.30 | | IF2512 | 4483.80 | 0.25 | | IF2603 | 4457.60 | 0.20 | 行业研究 【有色】刚果（金）钴出口配额落地，钴价有望进入上行周期——钴行业动态点评(增 持) 刚果（金）战略矿产市场监管局 2025 年 9 月 20 日宣布将钴出口禁令延长至 10 月 15 日，10 月 16 日起改为钴出口配额制度。2024 年刚果（金）钴产量占全球产量的 76.3%。投资建议：刚果（金）出口受限，钴供给明显收缩，利好钴价上行。推荐华 友钴业、洛阳钼业，关注力勤资源。 风险提示：刚果（金）钴政策变化风险；刚果 （金）以外地区产量超预期风险；钴需求下跌风险。 公司研究 【建筑】盈利进一步减亏，现金流及收现比同比改善——中铁装配（300374.SZ）跟 踪点评报告(增持) 25H1，中铁装配收入实现稳定增长，归母净 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the recent Congo export policy for cobalt is expected to drive prices upward, with a significant reduction in export quotas leading to increased demand for replenishment from downstream enterprises [6] - The report suggests a bullish outlook for precious metals following the recent FOMC meeting, despite some market adjustments, indicating a potential slow bull market for gold [4] - Copper prices are anticipated to break through key resistance levels, supported by seasonal demand increases in China [5] - The aluminum market is expected to see price increases due to rising downstream consumption as the National Day holiday approaches [5] - Lithium demand is projected to grow significantly, driven by a major contract signed by CATL for lithium iron phosphate materials, indicating a strong outlook for lithium prices [7] - Uranium prices are expected to rise due to potential export restrictions from Russia, which could significantly impact global supply [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 6522.39, with a weekly high of 6795.38 and a low of 3912.76 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw declines: copper down 1.19%, aluminum down 1.33%, zinc down 2.88%, lead down 0.17%, and tin down 1.53%. Precious metals had mixed results with gold down 0.22% and silver up 1.13% [21] Inventory Levels - Global visible inventories increased for copper by 7945 tons, aluminum by 8010 tons, and zinc by 2724 tons, while lead saw a decrease of 4085 tons [29]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous cobalt concept is showing strong performance across the board, while the consumption electronics sector is active, and the robotics and oil & gas sectors are experiencing declines [1][3] - The A-share Apple supply chain is active at the opening, with Luxshare Precision hitting the daily limit, and several other stocks such as GoerTek, Darui Electronics, Lens Technology, and others opening high [1] - The Hong Kong stock market opened with the Hang Seng Index down 0.32% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.68%, with notable declines in Kuaishou and Anta Sports [4] Group 2 - The A-share market opened with all three major indices rising slightly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.10% [2][3] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 240.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, along with a 300 billion yuan 14-day reverse repurchase operation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests focusing on industries with real profit realization or strong industrial trends, particularly in resources, innovative pharmaceuticals, gaming, and military industries [1] Group 1: Investment Focus - The company emphasizes the importance of industries that have sustainable pricing power, driven by both supply and demand growth in China [1] - Short-term profit realization is highlighted in sectors such as rare earths, cobalt, tungsten, phosphorus chemicals, pesticides, fluorochemicals, and photovoltaic inverters [1] Group 2: Consumer Electronics - September is noted for a series of consumer electronics product launches, indicating a focus on the consumer electronics sector [1] - The report suggests paying special attention to the revaluation opportunities within the Apple supply chain [1]

Core Viewpoint - Huayou Cobalt announced that investors holding "Huayou Convertible Bonds" can either continue trading in the secondary market within the specified time or convert at a price of 34.43 CNY per share. If forced redemption occurs, investors may face significant losses [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Investment Options**: Investors can trade in the secondary market or convert bonds at 34.43 CNY per share [2]. - **Forced Redemption**: If bonds are forcibly redeemed, investors will receive 100 CNY per bond plus accrued interest of 0.8918 CNY, totaling 100.8918 CNY per bond [2]. - **Potential Losses**: The possibility of forced redemption may lead to substantial investment losses for bondholders [2].

Investment Highlights - Precious metals: Gold has reached a new historical high, with continued recommendations for investment. Recent weak economic data from the US has led to a decline in the dollar index, and gold is poised for an upward trend as it prepares for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. Even if the meeting outcomes align with expectations, there is no need to rush to take profits, as the market is likely shifting from recession trading to stagflation trading, indicating a potential slow bull market for gold [2][3] - Copper: If interest rate cuts can facilitate a soft landing, copper prices may rise. LME copper has surpassed $10,000. Despite a weakening US economy, the market appears to be pricing in future stagflation or soft landing scenarios, leading to an upward trend in copper prices. With the domestic consumption peak approaching and downstream operating rates expected to improve, copper prices are likely to rise [2][3] - Aluminum: Continued optimism for rising aluminum prices. Shanghai aluminum prices have increased, driven by significant improvements in downstream operating rates, which have risen to 62.1%. Although the real estate sector remains sluggish, demand from the renewable energy sector is providing effective support. The mid-term impact of US aluminum tariffs is expected to be limited, and the long-term outlook for electrolytic aluminum remains positive [3] - Cobalt: Prices for cobalt intermediates continue to rise, with attention on the dynamics of electrolytic cobalt and policy changes in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Cobalt product prices have increased, with weekly growth rates of 4.55% for cobalt sulfate and 2.06% for electrolytic cobalt. The market anticipates further supply constraints due to upcoming policy changes in the DRC, which could drive prices higher [3] - Tin: Price increases driven by interest rate cut expectations and supply shortages. Tin prices rose by 2.70%, with operating rates for refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces dropping to 28.48%. Supply constraints are expected to persist due to raw material shortages and seasonal maintenance [4] - Lithium: Prices under pressure due to the announcement of a resumption plan at the Jiangxi mine. Lithium prices have declined, primarily due to market expectations surrounding the resumption of production. However, supply growth is expected to slow, and demand from the energy storage sector remains strong, indicating a potential improvement in the carbonated lithium supply-demand balance [4] Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Huayou Cobalt, Zhongtung High-tech, Zhangyuan Tungsten, Hunan Gold, Huayu Mining, Shanjin International, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Shenhuo Co., and Yun Aluminum [5]