Core Viewpoint - Shandong Province's Binzhou City is advancing a people-centered new urbanization strategy, aiming for high-quality urbanization development by 2025, focusing on key areas and breakthroughs in the integration of industry, city, and population [1] Group 1: Development Achievements - The integration of industry and city is deepening, with a GDP growth of 6.1%, surpassing the provincial average by 0.5 percentage points, ranking fourth in the province [2] - The per capita disposable income for residents reached 20,743 yuan, with a growth rate of 5.8%, the highest in the province [2] - Urban residents' per capita disposable income was 25,098 yuan, growing by 5.2%, while rural residents' income was 14,789 yuan, with a growth of 6.1%, narrowing the urban-rural income gap to 1.7 [2] - A total of 20,216 new urban jobs were created, significantly enhancing population agglomeration effects [2] Group 2: Urban and Rural Quality Improvement - Significant progress in urban renewal, with 220 million square meters of new green buildings and 34 old community renovation projects initiated [3] - The rural land transfer rate reached 64.3%, and county logistics shared delivery rate was 100% [3] - Basic public service levels improved, with six county-level medical service centers established and 715 new childcare positions created [3] Group 3: Pilot Construction and Integration - The development matrix for characteristic towns is being established, with eight towns generating over 7.73 billion yuan in revenue and employing 67,000 people [4] - The urban-rural integration pilot areas are promoting coordinated development, with a platform output value of 2.3 billion yuan [4] - The capacity of county towns is being enhanced, with a focus on developing leading industries and a three-dimensional aluminum industry ecosystem in Zouping City [4] Group 4: Potential Areas Urbanization - The implementation of urbanization level enhancement actions in potential areas is underway, with a focus on tailored strategies for each county [5] - The city plans to continue promoting new urbanization and urban-rural integration, leveraging the national-level pilot in Huimin County to optimize population structure and accelerate the urbanization of agricultural transfer populations [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand, with a recommended light - position oscillatory trading strategy [2]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage of stable supply and weak demand, and light - position oscillatory trading is recommended [2]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, and light - position oscillatory trading is also recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum was 20,760 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of alumina futures was 3,427 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan. The LME three - month electrolytic aluminum quote was 2,639 US dollars/ton, down 13 US dollars [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 17,539 hands to 309,943 hands; the main contract positions of alumina decreased by 4,907 hands to 189,037 hands [2]. - The LME aluminum inventory increased by 6,350 tons to 444,800 tons; the Shanghai Aluminum SHFE inventory increased by 5,625 tons to 108,822 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,720 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 645 yuan to 65 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 100 yuan to - 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production in the current month was 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons [2]. - The import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments decreased by 4,084.65 tons to 155,616.27 tons; the export volume decreased by 8.11 tons to 64.33 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.5 million tons to 4,520.7 million tons; the production of aluminum products increased by 11.17 million tons to 587.37 million tons [2]. - The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 6 million tons to 49 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy increased by 0.16 million tons to 2.58 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.29 million tons to 61.89 million tons; the production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.1 million tons to 126 million tons [2]. - The automobile production increased by 16.66 million vehicles to 280.86 million vehicles; the national real estate prosperity index decreased by 0.11 to 93.60 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 0.04% to 10.27%; the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 0.01% to 10.09% [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 0.0082% to 11.02%; the call - put ratio decreased by 0.0580 to 1.04 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Trump proposed to impose simple tariffs of 15% - 50% on most countries and would be willing to abandon the tariff clause if major countries opened their markets to the US [2]. - The US tariff increase would reduce global demand in the short term, raise import prices, and intensify inflation. It might also lead to geopolitical economic fragmentation [2]. - The EU and the US were moving towards an agreement with a 15% tariff rate on most products, and the EU was preparing a retaliatory tariff plan [2]. 3.8 Alumina Viewpoint Summary - The main alumina contract showed an oscillatory trend, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The supply was expected to be relatively sufficient in the short term, and the demand was supported by the electrolytic aluminum project [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint Summary - The main Shanghai Aluminum contract was oscillating weakly, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak due to the off - season [2]. 3.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy Viewpoint Summary - The main cast aluminum alloy contract was oscillating weakly, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply and demand were both weak, and the inventory was gradually accumulating [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [7] - Alumina: Neutral [7] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The seasonal off - peak season for electrolytic aluminum is evident, with downstream开工率 declining and processing fees facing losses. However, the inventory accumulation is not smooth, and long - term supply is restricted while consumption has stable growth [3]. - The alumina supply is slightly in surplus, with inventory accumulation accelerating. Although the spot market doesn't show surplus and the price is short - term strong, the long - term surplus expectation remains unchanged [5]. - The aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - peak season, with the price following the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and there are cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Aluminum - Spot: On July 21, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,890 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,720 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,860 yuan/ton [1]. - Futures: On July 21, 2025, the main SHFE aluminum contract opened at 20,560 yuan/ton, closed at 20,840 yuan/ton, up 335 yuan/ton (1.63% increase) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 220,654 lots, an increase of 91,618 lots, and the position was 316,907 lots, an increase of 34,252 lots [1]. - Inventory: As of July 21, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 498,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 434,425 tons, an increase of 3,725 tons from the previous day [1]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Spot: On July 21, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,185 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,160 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,265 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton [2]. - Futures: On July 21, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 3,161 yuan/ton, closed at 3,386 yuan/ton, up 262 yuan/ton (8.39% increase) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 993,037 lots, an increase of 657,075 lots, and the position was 221,548 lots, an increase of 11,189 lots [2]. 3.1.3 Aluminum Alloy - Price: On July 19, 2025, the Baotai civil raw aluminum purchase price was 15,200 yuan/ton, the mechanical raw aluminum purchase price was 15,500 yuan/ton, and the ADC12 Baotai quotation was 19,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - Inventory: The aluminum alloy social inventory was 37,200 tons, a weekly increase of 5,800 tons; the in - factory inventory was 63,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 7,000 tons; the total inventory was 101,100 tons, a weekly decrease of 1,200 tons [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - Seasonal off - peak season: The downstream开工率 has declined, and the production of aluminum rods and aluminum plates, strips, and foils has decreased significantly. The social inventory shows a slight accumulation trend, but it's not smooth, and if the inventory doesn't exceed 600,000 tons, it's considered a bullish factor [3]. - Long - term: Supply is restricted while consumption has stable growth. The policy of eliminating backward production capacity has no impact on the supply side, but the actual impact on the consumption side needs attention [3]. 3.2.2 Alumina - Spot market: On Friday, there were three transactions in the north totaling 19,000 tons, and on Monday, a northwest aluminum plant tendered for 10,000 tons of alumina, with the delivered price 50 - 60 yuan/ton lower than the previous transaction [4][5]. - Supply - demand balance: The supply is slightly in surplus, and the inventory accumulation is accelerating, but the spot market doesn't show surplus, and the price is short - term strong. The cost of bauxite is under pressure, and the 08 and 09 contracts are still adding positions, with the 09 contract having a high position [5]. 3.2.3 Aluminum Alloy - Consumption off - peak season: The price follows the aluminum price, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and there are cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [6]. 3.3 Strategy 3.3.1 Single - side - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [7] 3.3.2 Arbitrage - SHFE aluminum positive spread, long AD11 and short AL11 [7]

Group 1: Confidence in Private Economy - The private economy in China is showing a strong development momentum, with 1.979 million new private enterprises established in Q1 2023, a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [2] - As of the end of May 2023, there are 185 million existing private economic organizations, accounting for 96.76% of total business entities, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [2] - Entrepreneurs express confidence in the private economy's future, attributing it to favorable policies and a broad market outlook [2][3] Group 2: Innovation and Transformation - Private enterprises are focusing on innovation to achieve industrial transformation and upgrading, with examples of companies responding to national green development initiatives [4][5] - The importance of passing down entrepreneurial spirit and values from previous generations is emphasized as a key factor for high-quality development [4] - Companies are adapting to technological revolutions and global industrial chain reshaping through innovative practices [5] Group 3: Social Responsibility and National Integration - Private enterprises are seen as a driving force in promoting national development, participating in initiatives like rural revitalization and green transformation [5][6] - Entrepreneurs highlight the significance of aligning corporate development with national strategies and fulfilling social responsibilities [6] - The commitment to serving grassroots healthcare and investing in digital infrastructure reflects the social responsibility of private enterprises [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings was found in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper market is affected by both macro and fundamental factors. The expected 50% tariff on US copper in late July, along with weakening demand and existing supply - side contradictions, may lead to price fluctuations. The主力 contract price is expected to be affected by the 78000 support level [1]. - **Aluminum**: For alumina, the market is in a state of small - scale surplus, with prices expected to oscillate between 2950 - 3250. For aluminum, high - level prices face pressure due to inventory accumulation, weakening demand, and macro uncertainties, with the主力 contract price expected to range from 20000 - 20800 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The regenerative aluminum market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with demand being the more prominent issue. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract running between 19400 - 20200 [4]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market has a loose supply expectation in the long - term. Although the inventory level provides some price support, the domestic social inventory may enter a stockpiling cycle. The main contract price is expected to range from 21500 - 23000 [7]. - **Nickel**: In the nickel market, the cost support for refined nickel is weakening, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference of 118000 - 126000 [10]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period. It is recommended to hold short positions from the previous high [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel market has weak demand and slow inventory reduction. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract running between 12500 - 13000 [14][15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market has short - term price support due to news and capital sentiment, but the medium - term pressure remains, and there may be a downward trend. The short - term main contract is expected to run between 63000 - 68000 [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped by 0.59% to 77995 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 155 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 35.97% to 545 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, and the import volume in May increased by 1.23% to 25.31 million tons. The domestic social inventory increased by 3.29% to 14.76 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose by 0.20% to 20510 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 110 yuan/ton. The alumina price in Shandong increased by 0.32% to 3150 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.22% to 360.90 million tons. The aluminum profile production rate remained unchanged at 49.50% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20000 yuan/ton. The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 40 yuan/ton to 90 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the regenerative aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 1.49% to 61.50 million tons, and the primary aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 2.30% to 25.50 million tons [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped by 0.14% to 22150 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss increased by 63.52 yuan/ton to - 1260 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the refined zinc production increased by 6.50% to 58.51 million tons, and the import volume in May decreased by 5.36% to 2.67 million tons. The galvanizing production rate increased by 1.81% to 58.29% [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped by 1.11% to 120400 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss decreased by 447 yuan/ton to - 2442 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the Chinese refined nickel production was 31800 tons, and the import volume increased by 116.90% to 19157 tons. The SHFE inventory increased by 0.83% to 24922 tons [10]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price dropped by 0.71% to 264600 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2508 - 2509 decreased by 120 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the tin ore import volume increased by 36.39% to 13449 tons, and the SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% to 14840 tons [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) dropped by 0.39% to 12750 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2509 - 2510 decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 companies) in April decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons, and the 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 3.39% to 52.48 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.39% to 64900 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 110 yuan/ton to - 1960 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the lithium carbonate production increased by 8.34% to 78090 tons, and the demand decreased by 0.15% to 93876 tons. The total inventory increased by 2.27% to 99858 tons [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the electrolytic copper in non - US regions shows a pattern of "looser supply expectation and weaker actual demand", and the spot contradiction will be gradually resolved. The copper price may return to macro trading, and the negotiation of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US will also disrupt the copper price. The main contract should focus on the support level of 78,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is supported by the supply tightness expectation of bauxite in Guinea and the low inventory of alumina futures warehouse receipts. However, the high - capacity operation situation remains unchanged, and the market is slightly oversupplied. The price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate widely between 2950 - 3250 this week. For aluminum, although the domestic consumption stimulus supports the price, the weakening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and tariff uncertainties are short - term negatives. The price of the main contract is expected to face pressure at high levels this week, with a reference range of 20,000 - 20,800 [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The recycled aluminum market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. The subsequent weak demand will continue to suppress the upward momentum of prices. The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract running between 19,400 - 20,200 [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the output growth rate of domestic mines in June fell short of expectations, which supports the price. The supply of refined zinc is expected to be loose, while the demand is marginally weak. In the long - term, if the mine growth rate is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock pattern; otherwise, the price center may move down. The main contract reference range is 21,500 - 23,000 [8]. Nickel - Macro uncertainties increase, and the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support of refined nickel has weakened, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. The short - term disk is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 [11]. Tin - The actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. Short - term macro fluctuations are large, and previous high - level short positions should be held [14]. Stainless Steel - There are macro uncertainties, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The low - level nickel - iron price weakens the cost support, the supply - side production cut is less than expected, and the overall demand is weak. The short - term disk will fluctuate, with the main contract running between 12,500 - 13,000 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the fundamentals still face pressure, and the excess supply may intensify. The disk is in a game between sentiment and fundamentals. The short - term disk is expected to run in a relatively strong range, with the main contract running between 63,000 - 68,000, while there is still downward risk in the medium - term [20]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 78,455 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.34%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount was - 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20,470 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.54%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium/discount was 10 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 dropped to 20,000 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.50% [4]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 22,180 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.11%. The premium/discount was 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 121,750 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.33%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium/discount dropped to 1,950 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.50% [11]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price dropped to 266,500 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.07%. The SMM 1 tin premium/discount remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose to 12,800 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.39% [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose to 64,650 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.41%. The basis (based on SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate) dropped to - 2070 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 168.83% [20]. Month - to - Month Spreads - **Copper**: The spread between 2507 - 2508 was 50 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum**: The spread between 2507 - 2508 was 140 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 was 90 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Zinc**: The spread between 2507 - 2508 was - 70 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Nickel**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 was - 120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - **Tin**: The spread between 2507 - 2508 was 130 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 was - 20 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton from the previous day [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 was 240 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [20]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In June, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1349 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%. In May, the import volume was 253,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.23% [1]. - **Aluminum**: In June, the alumina output was 7.2581 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%. The electrolytic aluminum output was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22%. In May, the import volume was 250,500 tons, and the export volume was 10,000 tons [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot output was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot output was 255,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30%. In May, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots was 97,000 tons, and the export volume was 24,200 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: In June, the refined zinc output was 585,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.50%. In May, the import volume was 26,700 tons, and the export volume was 1,400 tons [8]. - **Nickel**: In June, China's refined nickel output was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The import volume of refined nickel was 19,157 tons, a significant increase compared to the previous month [11]. - **Tin**: In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.39%. The SMM refined tin output was 14,840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37% [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April (43 companies), the output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 1.7133 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The import volume was 125,100 tons, and the export volume was 436,300 tons [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In June, the lithium carbonate output was 78,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.34%. The demand was 93,815 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease [20].

今年港股市场火热，据统计上半年港股IPO募资额高达1067亿港元，是去年同期的近8倍，重返全球第 一。据港交所披露易平台数据，截至6月12日，已有超过170家公司递交A1上市申请，状态处于港交 所"处理中"。 创新国际于今年1月13日在港交所递交上市申请，目前港交所网站显示为"失效"的状态。众所周知，A1 招股书的有效期只有半年，创新国际目前显示失效表明其正在紧锣密鼓更新数据，招股书有望于近期更 新，上市进程即将加速。 近期，伴随"A+H"上市潮加速，A股公司赴港上市热情高涨，加之科企专线的开通，港股发行市场上半 年表现十分火热，上周就有5家公司同日上市。而目前已经递交A1申请，还未过聆讯的公司亦不在少 数，面对6个月的期限，很多公司也将面临招股书失效需二次递表的情况。 创新国际作为一家铝产业集团，目前主要从事电解铝以及氧化铝及其他相关产品的生产和销售，聚焦于 铝产业链上游的高附加值环节，此次上市联席保荐人为中金公司（601995）及华泰国际。公司招股书显 示，港股上市募集资金主要将用于：拓展海外产能，包括建设电解铝冶炼厂以及购买及安装生产设备； 绿色能源项目，包括建设绿色能源发电站以及购买及安装设备；以及营 ...

盘面整体情绪有所缓和，现货贴水走阔 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 研究员：袁 棋 投资咨询号：Z0019013 第一部分 核心观点 第二部分 氧化铝-产业基本面 第三部分 电解铝-产业基本面 目 录 核心观点 宏观：美国非农就业人数大超预期，7月降息概率迅速下滑；国内以旧换新政策将继续，反内卷和供给侧改革声音出现，对盘面影响较大；美国对 外关税政策出台，比例较前期提升，但后续不确定性仍较大。 氧化铝-产业基本面总结： 电解铝-产业基本面总结： 2.1.1 氧化铝产能：6月在产产能同比增加9.14%，环比增加365万吨 据阿拉丁数据,2025年6月中国氧化铝总产能为11292万吨，同比增加8.56%，环比增加50万吨； 2025年6月中国氧化铝在产 产能为9315万吨，同比增加9.14%，环比增加365万吨。 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 6,000.00 7,000.00 8,000.00 9,000.00 10,000.00 11,000.00 12,000.00 2018-04 2018-09 2019-02 2019-07 2019 ...

1. Copper Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Macroeconomically, the expected US tariff increase on copper is 50% to be implemented at the end of July. The 232 investigation weakens the logic of LME copper squeezing and US restocking. Fundamentally, there are still contradictions in copper mine supply, and demand has weakened at high copper prices. Global visible inventory, LME inventory, and Chinese social inventory are low, except for COMEX due to US restocking. After the 232 investigation, non - US electrolytic copper shows a pattern of "loose supply expectation and weak demand". The negotiation of reciprocal tariffs will also disturb copper prices. The main contract should pay attention to the support level of 78,000 [1]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,615 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from the previous day. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 15 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous day. Other copper prices and premiums also show corresponding changes [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts such as 2507 - 2508, 2508 - 2509, etc. have decreased to varying degrees [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month. The import copper concentrate index increased by 0.56 dollars/ton week - on - week. The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod and regenerated copper rod changed, and inventories in different regions also changed [1]. 2. Aluminum Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The aluminum price broke through the recent resistance level and reached a new high due to low warehouse receipts and inventory and short - term tightening of spot supply. Fundamentally, the alumina market will remain slightly oversupplied in July - August. The current aluminum price is high, but under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectation, weak demand, and macro - disturbances, it is expected to remain under pressure in the short term. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 20,800 [3]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,820 yuan/ton, up 0.77% from the previous day. Alumina prices in different regions also increased slightly. The import profit and loss, inter - month spreads, etc. changed accordingly [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, down 0.19% month - on - month, and electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, down 3.22% month - on - month. The operating rates of different aluminum products and inventories in different regions also changed [3]. 3. Aluminum Alloy Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. It is expected to be in a weak shock, and the main contract is expected to operate between 19,200 - 20,000. Attention should be paid to the supply of upstream scrap aluminum and marginal changes in imports [4]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,100 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous day. Inter - month spreads such as 2511 - 2512 decreased [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 0.9 million tons, up 1.49% month - on - month, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.10 million tons, up 2.30% month - on - month. The operating rates of different types of enterprises and inventories also changed [4]. 4. Zinc Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The zinc ore supply is in a long - term loose trend. The supply of refined zinc is expected to be loose, but the improvement lags behind the ore end. The demand has weakened marginally. The low inventory provides price support, but the domestic social inventory may enter the inventory accumulation cycle. In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loose cycle. The main contract is expected to operate between 21,500 - 23,000. Attention should be paid to the TC growth rate and the rhythm of US tariff policies [8]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,400 yuan/ton, up 1.08% from the previous day. The import profit and loss, inter - month spreads, etc. changed [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, refined zinc production was 0.5851 million tons, up 6.50% month - on - month. The operating rates of different zinc processing industries changed, and inventories in different regions also changed [8]. 5. Nickel Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The nickel price rebounded, and the macro - sentiment eased. The nickel ore supply is relatively loose. The refined nickel cost support has loosened, and the medium - term supply is still loose, restricting the upward space of the price. In the short term, the market is expected to adjust within a range, and the main contract is expected to operate between 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [10]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 120,600 yuan/ton, up 0.37% from the previous day. The prices and costs of different nickel products and related indicators such as LME 0 - 3, import profit and loss, etc. changed [10]. - **Supply and Inventory**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month, and the import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month. Inventories in different regions also changed [10]. 6. Tin Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The actual tin ore supply remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and in the electronic consumption off - season. In the short term, there are large macro - disturbances. Hold the previous high - level short positions and pay attention to changes in US tariff policies [14]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 265,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 160.00% [14]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts such as 2507 - 2508, 2508 - 2509, etc. changed significantly [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, tin ore imports increased by 36.39% month - on - month, while SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% month - on - month. Import and export volumes of refined tin and other data also changed [14]. 7. Stainless Steel Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The stainless steel market is strong, but the spot trading is light. The nickel ore supply is relatively loose, and the nickel - iron price is weak. The steel mill's production reduction is less than expected, and the terminal demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract is expected to operate between 12,500 - 13,000. Attention should be paid to policy trends and steel mill production reduction schedules [15]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,750 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day. The inter - month spreads changed [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China decreased by 3.83% month - on - month. Inventories in different regions also changed [15]. 8. Lithium Carbonate Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The lithium carbonate futures market fluctuated narrowly. The macro - situation has uncertainties. The supply of lithium carbonate is relatively sufficient, and the demand is stable but difficult to boost significantly. The inventory is still at a high level. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the main contract is expected to operate between 60,000 - 65,000. Attention should be paid to macro - risks [17]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price is 63,650 yuan/ton, up 0.55% from the previous day. The prices and spreads of different lithium products changed [17]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts such as 2507 - 2508, 2507 - 2509, etc. decreased [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month. The demand, import, and export volumes, and inventories in different links also changed [17].

铝类产业日报 2025/7/9 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 20,515.00 60.00 | -10.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) +5.00↑ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 3,130.00 96.00 | +20.00↑ -80.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) -19098.00↓ | 250,099.00 | -4627.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 248,656.00 | | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 8,225.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 65,011.00 | -634.00↓ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） +13200.00↑ | 2,577.00 | +13.50↑ LME铝库存（日，吨） | 384,350.00 | | | | 沪铝 ...