Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Different industries have distinct market conditions and investment logics, with various factors such as import - profit, tariffs, supply - demand, and seasonal factors influencing their performance [1][2][3][6] - Attention should be paid to policy changes, supply - demand rhythm differences, and price differentials in different industries for potential investment opportunities Summary by Category Import Profit/Price Differential - On July 9, 2025, M - grade US cotton with 141% tariff had an import profit of - 19150, Brazilian soybean crush margin in March was - 4, and palm oil import profit in September was - 398 [1] - Energy products like high - sulfur had an internal - external price differential of - 10, low - sulfur had 17, SC - WTI had 4, and SC - DUBAI had 1 - For non - ferrous metals, nickel spot import profit was - 2437, zinc three - month import profit was - 1295, and copper spot import profit was - 537 - Precious metals had a gold internal - external price differential of 661 [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Understand logistics margins, major importers, and resource dependence for non - ferrous metals internal - external arbitrage - Focus on fourth - quarter internal - external reverse arbitrage for aluminum [1] Iron Ore - Proximal shipments have declined from high levels, arrivals have recovered slowly, iron - water production has decreased from high levels, and the ore price center has dropped - There are few internal - external price differential opportunities in the short term, with the core being to capture the discount of continuous iron futures - The global balance sheet is relatively surplus compared to China's [2] Oil Products - SC: Warehouse receipts increased, internal - external prices weakened, and the August OSP remained stable - FU: Maintained a weak internal - external pattern in summer, and internal - external prices weakened rapidly due to a large increase in Zhoushan delivery goods - LU: Internal - external prices oscillated at high levels, waiting for an increase in domestic production - PG: The July CP official price was unexpectedly low, the external price dropped, and the internal - external price differential strengthened significantly. With the expected increase in PDH operation, propane is strong; civil gas prices are suppressed, and a positive - arbitrage approach is recommended [3] Agricultural Products - Cotton: Due to trade wars and sanctions, the internal and external cotton markets are decoupling, and the strength relationship between US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton has reversed with tariff policy changes. Follow - up tariff policies should be continuously monitored - Oilseeds and oils: These products have a high import dependence, and attention should be paid to the difference in internal and external supply - demand rhythms [6] Precious Metals - RMB exchange - rate fluctuations support the internal - market price, causing the internal - external price ratio to decline rapidly - The silver spot discount has widened, and the import window is closed [7] PX - Domestic PX operation has rebounded to a high level, and there are still some overseas maintenance. With the subsequent restart of TA, PX is in a de - stocking state, and the valuation has been somewhat restored. Currently, it is advisable to wait and see [8]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - The gold market is stabilizing with spot gold and COMEX gold prices fluctuating around $3,300 per ounce, as risk aversion sentiment decreases [1] - Heraeus Precious Metals predicts that international gold prices will fluctuate between $3,150 and $3,500 per ounce in the short term, supported by ongoing central bank gold purchases [1][2] - U.S. economic data remains resilient, with June non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations, which has weakened the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations for July, leading to downward pressure on gold prices [1] Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks continue to support gold demand, with a net increase of 20 tons of gold in May, primarily from Kazakhstan, Turkey, and Poland [2] - Despite a slight slowdown in the pace of gold purchases, market sentiment remains optimistic, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting an increase in gold holdings [2] - The demand for gold as a hedge against geopolitical and inflation risks is rising, reflecting a structural shift in reserve management and increased diversification away from the U.S. dollar [2] Group 3: Platinum Market Dynamics - Platinum prices are maintaining strength due to demand from the jewelry sector, with prices fluctuating around $1,400 per ounce [2][3] - The platinum market is in a three-year supply-demand imbalance, with visible inventories being continuously consumed, leading to high leasing rates for platinum [3] - China's jewelry demand has significantly boosted platinum prices, with imports increasing to 12.57 tons in May, up from 11.54 tons in April, indicating strong physical demand [3]

在贵金属市场持续升温的背景下，国际投行ROTH Capital Partners近期发布了一份研究报告引发市场关注，将希尔威矿业的目标价从6.25美元大幅上调至6.75 美元，重申"买入"评级。 这一调整的核心依据，是ROTH对全球金银价格前景的全面重估——该机构将2026年白银均价预测从27.06美元/盎司提升至32.50美元/盎司，黄金均价预测则 从2300美元/盎司跃升至2863美元/盎司。 报告明确将目标价上调归因于"更高的金银价格预期推动了估值提升"，即使折现率从10%升至11%，依然难掩基本面改善带来的价值重估。 根据新模型，ROTH预计希尔威2026年营收将达3.305亿美元，较此前预测提升14.9%，2027年营收预计增长至4.066亿美元；每股收益(EPS)同步跃升，2026 年预期达0.41美元，2027年升至0.53美元，对应市盈率仅10.3倍与8.0倍。 一、风起金银：全球机构共识下的贵金属新周期 ROTH的乐观判断并非孤例。当前全球主流机构已形成对贵金属的看多共识，黄金、白银均持续走高。 今年4月，COMEX黄金达到3509.0美元/盎司，并保持高位盘整，这背后是全球黄金需求持续高涨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industry products, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector, suggesting different approaches such as buying, selling, or holding based on the specific market conditions of each commodity [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Prices are in high - level oscillation. China's central bank has increased gold holdings for 8 consecutive months. Suggest going long on gold due to the unchanged de - dollarization logic [1]. - **Silver**: It shows a rebound with good market sales recently. Long - term industrial silver demand is downward, so consider long - term short positions or going long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Prices oscillated. Trump's tariff increase affected the market. It is recommended to wait for a full adjustment and then buy at low prices [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to oscillate. It is advised to wait and see due to macro uncertainties and a consumption off - season [2]. - **Alumina**: Prices may be strong in the short term. It is recommended to buy at low prices or purchase call options [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term market sentiment is strong with high unilateral risks. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is recommended to wait and see due to expected marginal improvement and industrial information disturbances [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar Steel**: Supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is recommended to wait and see and try a reverse spread [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply and demand are neutral. It is recommended to wait and see and layout long positions on the far - month coil - ore ratio [4][5]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is relatively loose with improving fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term US soybeans are in a range - bound oscillation. Domestic soybeans follow international cost - side trends [6]. - **Corn**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate within a range due to reduced surplus grain and wheat substitution [6]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract is expected to be weak and oscillate. It is recommended to short in the futures market, sell call options, or lock in prices for end - users [6]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [7]. - **Palm Oil**: It is expected to be strong in the short term with wide - range oscillations. Pay attention to production areas and bio - diesel policies [7]. - **Eggs**: Futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate due to high supply and cost support [7]. - **Pigs**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate and adjust due to increasing supply and weakening demand [7]. - **Apples**: It is recommended to wait and see, and the market is affected by weather [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Short - term supply and demand improve. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long term [8][9]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to wait and see after gradually closing short positions [9]. - **PTA**: It is recommended to go long on PX, do a positive spread on PTA, and short processing fees in the long term [9]. - **Glass**: Fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **PP**: The short - term trend is weak and oscillating. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long term [9][10]. - **MEG**: It is expected to be weak. It is recommended to short at high prices [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The long - term trend is bearish. It is recommended to short at high prices and pay attention to inventory accumulation [10]. - **Styrene**: The short - term trend is weak and oscillating. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long term [10]. - **Soda Ash**: Fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to short at high prices [10][11].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicate that participants believe it may be appropriate to lower the federal funds rate target range this year as inflation and activity outlooks become clearer [1] - The U.S. soybean export net sales for the week ending July 3 are expected to be between 300,000 to 600,000 tons for the 2024/25 marketing year, and between 50,000 to 400,000 tons for the 2025/26 marketing year [1] - In June, the national consumer price index in China rose by 0.1% year-on-year, with urban prices up by 0.1% and rural prices down by 0.2% [1] Group 2 - The average transaction price for low-sulfur coking coal in Lishi, Shanxi, reached 1,123 yuan per ton, an increase of 123 yuan per ton compared to June 25, due to market sentiment and lack of participation from coal mines in recent auctions [1] - The sugar production in Brazil's central-south region is expected to decrease by 9.8% to 2.95 million tons, with sugarcane crushing down by 9.7% year-on-year to 44.24 million tons [1] - Malaysia's palm oil production is projected to increase to 19.5 million tons for the 2025/26 marketing year, reflecting a growth of 0.5% [1] Group 3 - The total inventory of refined oil at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE reached 20.685 million barrels, an increase of 152,900 barrels from the previous week [1] - U.S. crude oil exports rose by 452,000 barrels per day to 2.757 million barrels per day for the week ending July 4, while strategic petroleum reserve stocks increased by 23,800 barrels to 403 million barrels [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains its copper price forecast at $9,700 per ton for December 2025 on the London Stock Exchange, adjusting the U.S. copper import tariff benchmark from 25% to 50% [1] Group 4 - The photovoltaic industry is advancing a plan to "reduce internal competition and cut capacity," aiming to establish a platform company for debt acquisition of excess capacity, which will help balance supply and demand [1] - The international oil prices saw a slight decline, with U.S. oil closing at $68.29 per barrel and Brent at $70.13 per barrel, while the U.S. EIA reported an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 7.07 million barrels [1] - International precious metal futures showed mixed results, with COMEX gold rising by 0.17% to $3,322.50 per ounce, while silver fell by 0.39% to $36.61 per ounce, influenced by trade tensions prompting central banks to increase gold purchases [1]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T+D rose by 0.46% to 767.61 yuan per gram on July 10, 2023 [1] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T+D fell by 0.16% to 8854.0 yuan per kilogram on July 10, 2023 [1]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T+D closed at 766.42 yuan per gram on July 9, 2023, reflecting an increase of 0.31% [1] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T+D closed at 8840.0 yuan per kilogram on July 9, 2023, showing a decrease of 0.32% [1]

Core Insights - The global silver market is experiencing a historic breakthrough, with spot silver prices stabilizing above $36, nearing a 13-year high, and rising for six consecutive trading days [1] - The World Bank's latest report predicts a 17% increase in silver prices by 2025, driven by both industrial and financial attributes [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand gap for silver is widening due to stagnant growth in global silver mining and a high by-product silver ratio of 70%, compounded by rising ESG costs and frequent strikes in major producing countries [3] - COMEX inventory saw a reduction of 2.46 tons on June 24, while ETF holdings increased by 127.21 tons, indicating institutional recognition of silver's long-term value [3] - Demand is structurally surging, with silver usage in photovoltaic applications expected to grow at an annual rate of 5.7%, reaching 7,560 tons by 2025, accounting for 34% of industrial demand [3] - In the electric vehicle sector, silver usage per vehicle is projected to increase by 71% to 35 grams, leading to an additional demand of 1,400 tons from an annual production of 40 million vehicles [3] Group 2: Financial Attributes and Market Trends - The current gold-silver ratio stands at 91:1, significantly deviating from the historical average of 40-70:1, which has historically led to substantial price increases for silver during previous corrections [4] - The anticipated onset of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle is expected to enhance silver's holding value, with a greater than 70% probability of rate cuts by Q3 2025 [4] - Recent data shows an increase in silver options volatility, with the SVXY index rising from 35 to 48, reflecting heightened market expectations for price fluctuations [4] Group 3: Trading Platform Innovations - The company has developed a three-tiered protective system to address common industry pain points such as data fraud and slow withdrawals [5] - The trading platform offers a fully transparent trading chain, with unique transaction codes for verification and compliance with FCA transparency requirements [5] - An intelligent risk control system dynamically adjusts leverage based on market volatility, effectively managing risk during market downturns [5] - The platform's cost optimization mechanism features lower spreads and an instant rebate system, allowing high-frequency traders to save significant costs [5] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Short-term strategies focus on opportunities arising from the Fed's anticipated rate cuts, with bullish signals identified when silver prices exceed $34.5 per ounce [6][7] - Long-term strategies recommend increasing silver allocation in core asset portfolios to 10%-15%, leveraging the platform's dynamic leverage adjustments and rapid withdrawal features to manage extreme market conditions [6][7] - The strategic opportunity in the silver market is characterized by industrial demand and financial recovery, positioning the company as a reliable partner for investors navigating market cycles [6][7]

2025 年上半年，全球通胀率同比攀升至 3.5%，创三年新高，而黄金价格同期上涨 25%，两者的正向关联性再次引发市场关注。这种现象并非偶 然 —— 和讯网分析指出，当货币购买力因通胀缩水时，黄金的稀缺性与稳定性使其成为天然的 "货币锚"，历史数据显示，在高通胀周期中，黄 金年化回报率可达 18%，显著跑赢传统金融资产。然而，这一轮黄金行情已超越单纯的通胀对冲属性，正演变为全球财政、货币及地缘风险的综 合对冲工具。 一、通胀与黄金关系的底层逻辑重构 当前黄金市场呈现出三大新特征：一是定价逻辑的重塑，尽管美联储 6 月点阵图显示内部对降息分歧扩大，但 10 年期美债实际收益率仍维持在 1.2%，而黄金价格却突破 3200 美元关口，这表明地缘政治溢价和美元信用风险（美元指数较 2024 年峰值下跌 9.2%）正在重构定价模型。二是供 需结构的深层变化，2025 年一季度全球金矿产量仅增长 0.5%，但黄金 ETF 流入量达 226 吨，投资需求占比从 2024 年的 18% 跃升至 34%，推动 黄金从商品属性向金融属性加速转变。三是央行购金的常态化，全球央行连续 14 个季度增持黄金，2025 年上半年累计 ...

1. 货币属性崛起：全球央行连续 16 年增持黄金，2025 年上半年购金量达 493 吨，黄金正从避险资产向 "新货币锚" 转型。 2. 能源转型冲击：全球减碳政策削弱原油长期需求，而数字货币对黄金货币属性的挑战，正在重塑传统关联逻辑。 3. 政策博弈加剧：美联储降息预期反复与特朗普关税政策扰动，使原油与黄金的价格驱动因素更趋独立。 二、波动市场下的投资痛点与破局之道 近期国际金融市场再现戏剧性波动。据中财网 7 月 4 日报道，美国 6 月非农就业数据超预期，引发美联储降息预期降温，纽约黄金期货价格当日 下跌 0.71% 至 3336 美元 / 盎司。与此同时，OPEC + 宣布 8 月将原油产量再增 41.1 万桶 / 日，布伦特原油期货价格同步承压回落至 68.85 美元 / 桶。这种 "双杀" 行情背后，折射出原油与黄金在经济复苏周期中的复杂博弈。 一、原油黄金关联性的底层逻辑重构 传统认知中，原油与黄金因同属美元计价资产且受通胀驱动，呈现较强正相关性。例如 2002-2008 年两者相关系数高达 0.92，新兴市场需求激增 与地缘冲突成为共同推手。但 2025 年市场出现新特征：尽管 OPEC + ...