2025年，全市固定资产投资同比下降21.7%，其中，房地产开发投资下降31.0%，基础设施投资下降 1.9%。重点产业投资保持较快增长，工业技术改造投资增长19.2%，居民服务、修理和其他服务业投资 增长88.3%，信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业投资增长67.7%，科学研究和技术服务业投资增长 16.1%。 市场销售规模扩大 1月30日，深圳市统计局发布2025年经济数据。根据广东省地区生产总值统一核算结果，2025年深圳全 市地区生产总值38731.80亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.5%。其中，第一产业增加值28.04亿元， 下降4.5%；第二产业增加值14482.54亿元，增长4.1%；第三产业增加值24221.22亿元，增长6.3%。 工业生产稳步增长 高技术产品产量快速增长 2025年，全市规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.4%。分门类看，采矿业增加值同比下降1.1%，制造业增 长5.9%，电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增长3.7%。主要行业大类中，通用设备制造业增长 13.9%，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增长6.2%，专用设备制造业增长5.1%。高技术产品产量持 续快速增长，其中，3D打印 ...

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2026-02-02 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《2025 年工业利润迎正增长，高技术 制造领跑显结构活力》 - 2026.1.28 宏观研究 企业利润被动收缩趋势持续，投资止跌企稳仍需政 策呵护 核心观点 从 1 月 PMI 数据来看，（1）大宗商品价格持续上涨，原材料价 格涨幅高于产成品价格涨幅，企业利润空间被动收缩呈现趋势性特 征，既阻碍供需再平衡进程，亦可能拖累稳就业、稳预期政策成效。 （2）建筑业景气度较为明显回落，不仅受低温天气和春节临近等季 节性因素影响，也在一定程度上反映出当前地方项目建设节奏偏慢、 投资意愿尚待进一步提振的现实状况，投资止跌企稳仍需政策呵护。 我们理解，（1）短期经济基本面是利好债券市场，估计利率中枢 或将温和下行。（2）在权益市场方面，工业企业利润修复承压，盈利 驱动逻辑弱化，若无新的增量信息，估值驱动亦难有提振，短 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金十数据 英国财政大臣里夫斯（Rachel Reeves）推行的增税政策，其副作用正在显现。经济学家警告称，这 套"财政组合拳"将在未来至少一年内严重拖累英国的经济增长。 根据安永统计俱乐部（EY Item Club）发布的最新预测，2026年英国经济预计仅能实现0.9%的微弱增 长。尽管这一数字较去年11月预测的0.8%略有上调，但专家们明确指出，工党政府提高税收并削减公 共支出的决定，是造成当前经济停滞不前的主要原因之一。 "旧痛"难消 安永分析指出，预计财政大臣在今年的预算案中不会再出台新的增税措施。然而，安永首席经济顾问马 特·斯万内尔（Matt Swannell）强调，此前宣布的政策正在进入实施期，其紧缩效应将持续释放。 "虽然去年的秋季预算为政府构建了更健康的财政缓冲空间，但许多重磅措施的冲击力还需要数年才能 完全消化，"斯万内尔表示，"即便2026年不再加税，但随着既定增税措施开始'吸血'，加上政府为遵守 财政规则而必须压降借贷并维持公共支出平稳，这种财政紧缩政策叠加全球局势的不确定性，将在未来 一年左右持续拖累英国 ...

♨博时基金市场异动陪伴 市场表现： 2月2日，A股三大指数调整，跌幅均超2%。 解析： ‼今日沪深三大指数调整，背后受多重因素影响。直接导火索或在于前期领涨的有色金属板块出现剧烈 回调。该板块受美联储新任主席提名等消息冲击，市场对全球流动性边际收紧的担忧有所升温，叠加商 品多头交易结构已极致拥挤，引发资金集中获利了结。与此同时，国内最新公布的1月制造业PMI回落 至49.3%，虽生产端保持扩张，但新订单指数下滑，凸显经济内生动能"供强需弱"的结构性问题依然存 在。此外，临近春节长假，投资者风险偏好或趋于谨慎，部分资金选择离场观望，进一步放大了市场的 调整压力。 ‼此次市场波动的核心扰动源，或在于美国总统特朗普提名凯文·沃什为下一任美联储主席。沃什的政策 主张被市场解读为"降息+缩表"的鹰派组合，其过去倡导缩减美联储资产负债表的态度较为鲜明。这一 提名迅速扭转了市场此前对流动性持续宽松的预期，推动美元指数走强，并压制了以美元计价的黄金、 白银等大宗商品价格，同时通过全球资产定价锚的重估，对A股资源股及整体风险偏好形成一定冲击。 尽管沃什也曾表达支持降息的立场，但其政策框架的内在矛盾与不确定性，引发了投资者对美联 ...

一、市场表现 二、重要新闻 1、据巴基斯坦媒体《黎明报》报道，1月26日，巴基斯坦国家银行(巴央行)发表声明，将本国关键政策利率维持在10.5%不变。声明同时指出，2025年12月 巴基斯坦的总体通胀率为5.6%，核心通胀率稳定在7.4%的较高水平附近，外部经常账户出现2.44亿美元的赤字，导致2026财年上半年出现12亿美元的赤字。 2、据巴基斯坦媒体《国民报》1月26日报道，2025至2026财年上半年(2025年7月至2025年12月)，美国仍为巴基斯坦最大商品出口目的地，其次为中国和英 国。巴基斯坦国家银行(巴央行)公布数据显示，统计期间，巴基斯坦对美出口总额为31.77亿美元，对华出口总额为12.16亿美元，对英出口总额为10.96亿美 2026年2月2日 元。 3、巴基斯坦财政部1月27日发布了《2025年12月月度经济更新及展望》，报告指出2025至2026财年上半年(2025年7月至2025年12月)巴基斯坦宏观经济持续 稳定，消费者物价指数为5.2%，去年同期为7.2%；大规模制造业增长6.0%；政府总收入增长了7.8%，总开支减少6.2%；经常账户在统计期间出现了12亿美 元赤字，而去年为 ...

Economic Growth - In January, the US manufacturing PMI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 51.9, while the services PMI remained flat at 52.5, both slightly below expectations[2] - The Q3 GDP growth rate was revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, exceeding the expected 4.3%, primarily due to an upward revision in intellectual property and a narrowing drag from net exports[2] - Real personal spending in November remained flat at 0.3%, with the Redbook retail index showing high year-on-year growth in December and January[2] Financial Conditions - Goldman Sachs' financial conditions index eased by 10 basis points in January, driven by a weaker dollar, narrowing credit spreads, and rising US stock prices[3] - The S&P 500 index increased by 1.4% in January, while corporate credit spreads narrowed by 5 basis points to 0.96%[3] - The US dollar index fell by 1.2% to 97.1 as of January 30[3] Inflation - The December core CPI increased by 0.2%, which was below expectations, with a marginal rise of 0.16 percentage points from November[4] - Inflation expectations rose in January, with 2-year and 10-year TIPS inflation expectations increasing by 54 basis points and 9 basis points to 2.84% and 2.34%, respectively[4] Labor Market - December's non-farm payrolls added only 50,000 jobs, below the expected 70,000, with the unemployment rate dropping by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%[5] - The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.1% to 62.4%, while average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% month-on-month[5] - Job openings showed signs of improvement, with a notable decrease in WARN notices indicating layoffs in December[5] Risks - There are concerns regarding the speed of weakening in the US labor market and the potential for liquidity tightening to be less than expected[6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities in China first rose and then fell. Industrial products slightly declined after the rise, while agricultural products slightly increased. At the beginning of the week, supported by multiple positive factors, precious metals and non - ferrous metals rose significantly, driving the collective rise of commodities. However, with the confirmation of the nominee for the Fed Chair (the final candidate is more hawkish than expected), the market adjusted significantly, with precious metals crashing and non - ferrous metals falling sharply [3]. - The Fed suspended rate cuts as scheduled on January 28, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 3.50% - 3.75% range. The market expects a more than 60% probability of two 25 - basis - point rate cuts by the end of 2026. The new Fed Chair nominee may affect future rate - cut expectations. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, whose "hawkish" background may support the US dollar and put pressure on stocks, bonds, and precious metals [4]. - Japan's Prime Minister warned against currency speculation, and the yen continued to rise. The market speculated about US - Japan joint intervention in the foreign exchange market, and the Japanese bond market also fluctuated [4]. - In January, China's manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs both declined, and economic activities slowed down compared with the previous month. However, production remained in expansion, and positive demand - side policies provided a foundation for the economy in the first quarter. In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 0.6% year - on - year, reversing the three - year decline. The 2026 tax reform aims to balance the central - local fiscal relationship and optimize the tax structure, which may relieve local debt risks [5]. - Commodity volatility is rising, and the strength of different sectors may change. The confirmation of the Fed Chair nominee may lead to a rebound in the US dollar index, suppressing precious metals and non - ferrous metals. China's policies to expand domestic demand may benefit some commodities, and geopolitical and weather factors may support energy prices [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Market Performance**: This week, domestic commodities first rose and then fell. Industrial products slightly declined, and agricultural products slightly increased. The market adjusted after the confirmation of the Fed Chair nominee [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: The Fed suspended rate cuts, and the market expects rate cuts by the end of 2026. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, and Japan's currency and bond markets fluctuated [4]. - **Domestic Factors**: In January, China's manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined. In 2025, industrial profits increased, and the 2026 tax reform may relieve local debt risks [5]. - **Commodity Views**: Commodity volatility is rising, and sector strength may change due to factors such as the Fed Chair nominee, China's policies, and geopolitical and weather factors [6] PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Fed Policy**: The Fed suspended rate cuts on January 28, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 3.50% - 3.75% range. The market expects a more than 60% probability of two 25 - basis - point rate cuts by the end of 2026 [4]. - **Nominee for Fed Chair**: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Warsh has a "hawkish" background, and his policies may support the US dollar and put pressure on stocks, bonds, and precious metals [4]. - **Japan's Situation**: Japan's Prime Minister warned against currency speculation, and the yen continued to rise. The market speculated about US - Japan joint intervention in the foreign exchange market, and the Japanese bond market also fluctuated [4] PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **PMI Data**: In January, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, also a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease. Economic activities slowed down, but production remained in expansion [5][26]. - **Industrial Profits**: In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size was 73982 billion yuan, a 0.6% year - on - year increase, reversing the three - year decline [5][29]. - **Tax Reform**: The 2026 tax reform aims to balance the central - local fiscal relationship and optimize the tax structure, which may relieve local debt risks [5] PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial开工率**: The report shows the开工率 data of the polyester industry chain and the blast furnace开工率 in China, but specific trends and analyses are not detailed in the summary [36]. - **Commodity Prices**: The report shows the price data of fruits, agricultural products, and pork, but specific trends and analyses are not detailed in the summary [49]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article is that artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly becoming integrated into the American workplace, with a significant increase in daily usage among workers by 2025 [1] Group 1: AI Adoption in the Workplace - By the end of 2025, approximately 12% of American workers are expected to use AI tools daily, showing a notable increase compared to the previous year [1] - The adoption of AI is highly concentrated among high-skilled and highly educated white-collar workers, while its usage remains relatively low in low-skilled jobs or those at higher risk of automation [1] Group 2: Industry-Specific AI Usage - In the technology and information services sector, over 30% of workers are expected to use AI daily, indicating a strong integration of AI in this industry [1] - Conversely, in manufacturing and traditional service industries, the daily usage rate of AI is below 10%, highlighting a disparity in AI adoption across different sectors [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights the increasing domestic pressure on the U.S. government, with Trump focusing on China amidst a looming government shutdown and Supreme Court decisions, suggesting a strategy to create a sense of urgency domestically [1] - Trump's comments appear to be a self-defense mechanism aimed at delaying internal crises by portraying China as a bargaining chip in the ongoing U.S.-China rivalry [1][3] - The capital markets have begun to react to the U.S. government's challenges, with European pension funds adjusting their investments in U.S. debt, indicating a loss of confidence in U.S. financial stability [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. debt is expanding rapidly, and the burden of interest payments is becoming unsustainable, leading to a reassessment of risk in the capital markets [5][7] - The U.S. is shifting its strategy to a more aggressive financial approach, including controlling monetary policy and creating expectations for interest rate cuts to alleviate domestic pressures [7][9] - Energy has re-emerged as a critical lever for the U.S., with efforts to raise energy prices to impact other countries' costs and maintain U.S. economic stability [9][11] Group 3 - The U.S. is not seeking to completely sever ties but aims to make it more expensive for competitors, particularly China, to operate by increasing energy costs and imposing tariffs through allies [11][13] - The U.S. strategy involves targeting key logistical and financial nodes to exert pressure without direct confrontation, which may ultimately undermine U.S. credibility and international relations [13][15] - In contrast, China is adopting a long-term strategy, diversifying its trade relationships and focusing on stable and reasonable pricing, indicating a shift away from reliance on the U.S. market [15][17] Group 4 - The article notes that seemingly minor retaliatory measures in critical materials and technologies could have significant impacts, highlighting the interdependence between the U.S. and China [17][18] - Trump's preemptive actions before negotiations with China are seen as strategic positioning to create leverage, but the effectiveness of such tactics is questioned given the changing dynamics of the global landscape [18]

Group 1 - The company is nearing completion of the second phase capacity construction for its Southern Additive project, which was initially expected to be completed by early January [2] - The company confirmed that the renovation of the factory and the procurement and debugging of equipment are almost finished, and discussions with relevant customers are proceeding normally [2] - The company will comply with the regulations of the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange regarding information disclosure in case of significant developments [2]