Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The swine industry is experiencing accelerated declines in breeding stock, with a reported decrease of 0.77% in October compared to the previous month. The average price of pork in October was 11.69 yuan/kg, down 1.41% month-on-month, indicating a potential ongoing capacity reduction in the industry [5][18] - The policy direction in the industry is shifting towards protecting farmers' rights and stimulating enterprise innovation, suggesting that future growth stocks will focus more on technological content and innovative models [6][19] - The poultry sector is facing a persistent contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," leading to losses that may force breeding farms to reduce production capacity [7][19] - The feed sector is recommended to focus on Hai Da Group due to its management effectiveness and expected growth in production capacity [8][20] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - In October, the breeding stock decreased by 0.77%, with a significant increase in the culling of sows by approximately 12.41%. The industry is expected to enter a phase of active capacity reduction as prices fall below cost levels [5][18] - The government is implementing capacity control measures to stabilize pork prices, which may lead to improved profitability for listed companies as costs decline [6][19] 2. Poultry Industry - The price of chicken chicks in Yantai was reported at 3.50 yuan/chick, down 2.8% month-on-month and 20.5% year-on-year. The price of broiler chickens was 3.45 yuan/kg, also down 2.8% month-on-month and 8.7% year-on-year [7][19] - The industry is expected to see an increase in market share for integrated enterprises and contract farming due to ongoing losses [7][19] 3. Feed Industry - The report highlights a slight decline in aquatic product prices, with various fish species showing mixed performance in price changes [8][20] - Hai Da Group is recommended for its expected growth and effective management, with a focus on increasing market share and overseas growth [9][20] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry is showing an increase in sales growth compared to September, indicating a trend towards higher market concentration among leading brands [10][22] - Recommendations include focusing on companies with strong brand performance and those actively expanding their domestic market presence [25] 5. Agricultural Products - The report notes that soybean prices have reached new highs, but domestic soybean meal prices remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak downstream purchasing sentiment [14][26] - The rubber market is expected to continue fluctuating, influenced by macroeconomic factors and stable import levels [14][26] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4679, up 0.82% from the previous week, while the Agricultural and Forestry Index closed at 2970, up 0.79% [27][30] - The report indicates that the agricultural sector is experiencing a significant increase in investment value due to its unique characteristics and historical low valuations [14][26]

Core Viewpoint - New Hope's stock price has shown a positive trend, with a year-to-date increase of 11.77% and significant growth in net profit for the first nine months of 2025, indicating strong financial performance and investor interest [2][3]. Financial Performance - As of September 30, 2025, New Hope achieved a revenue of 80.50 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.27%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 760 million yuan, marking a substantial increase of 395.89% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 6.41 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 109 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - On November 10, New Hope's stock rose by 2.04%, trading at 10.01 yuan per share, with a total transaction volume of 353 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.79%. The total market capitalization stands at 45.07 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" twice this year, with the most recent occurrence on April 7 [2]. Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, New Hope had 192,600 shareholders, a decrease of 2.24% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 2.30% to 23,363 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, China Securities Finance Corporation holds 126 million shares, while Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited increased its holdings by 8.96 million shares to 87.96 million shares [3].

Core Insights - Shennong Group's stock price increased by 2.00% to 30.60 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 16.058 billion CNY as of November 10 [1] - The company reported a year-to-date stock price increase of 12.05%, but a decline of 6.65% over the past 60 days [1] - For the period from January to September 2025, Shennong Group's revenue was 3.923 billion CNY, a decrease of 3.79% year-on-year, and net profit was 462 million CNY, down 3.89% year-on-year [2] Company Overview - Shennong Group, established on August 9, 1999, and listed on May 28, 2021, is based in Kunming, Yunnan Province [1] - The company's main business includes the production and sale of feed products, pig farming, slaughtering, and pork sales, with revenue composition: 76.08% from live pigs, 18.37% from pork products, 3.72% from feed, 0.94% from deep processing products, and 0.89% from other sources [1] - The company operates in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, specifically in pig farming [1] Shareholder Information - As of October 31, the number of shareholders decreased by 1.41% to 19,200, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 1.44% to 27,033 shares [2] - The company has distributed a total of 536 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 336 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3] Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, major shareholders include Yinhua Agricultural Industry Stock Fund, which increased its holdings by 43.84% to 2.1227 million shares [3] - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited reduced its holdings by 20.89% to 1.8383 million shares, while Guotai CSI Animal Husbandry ETF increased its holdings by 67.41% to 1.7219 million shares [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Wens Foodstuff Group Co., Ltd. has shown a positive trend with a 14.23% increase year-to-date, despite a slight decline in recent trading days [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Wens achieved a revenue of 758.17 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.53%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.98% to 52.56 billion yuan [2]. - Cumulatively, the company has distributed 301.10 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 69.35 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Wens was 81,100, a decrease of 10.94% from the previous period. The average number of tradable shares per shareholder increased by 12.11% to 73,543 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 144 million shares, an increase of 5.50 million shares compared to the previous period. Conversely, E Fund's ChiNext ETF reduced its holdings by 19.09 million shares to 113 million shares [3]. Stock Market Activity - On November 10, Wens' stock price rose by 2.01% to 18.29 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 724 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.67%. The total market capitalization reached 121.7 billion yuan [1]. - The net inflow of main funds was 32.71 million yuan, with significant buying and selling activities recorded [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the need for the pig industry to overcome challenges through capacity regulation and industry self-discipline to achieve high-quality development [1] - Analysts suggest that the industry's efforts to counteract internal competition are expected to support the medium to long-term performance of pig prices [1] - The stock price of Dekang Agriculture (02419) rose over 5% in early trading, reflecting positive market sentiment, with a current price of 69.7 HKD and a trading volume of 42.34 million HKD [1] Group 2 - Guosen Securities reports that Dekang Agriculture is innovatively implementing a "company + sow breeding and fattening farm" model, which allows for lighter asset expansion and more stable cooperation with farmers [1] - The company aims to exceed a slaughter scale of 10 million heads by 2025, maintaining a rapid growth rate in output [1] - Dekang Agriculture's profitability per head is expected to be above the industry average, indicating potential for valuation recovery in the future [1]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, representing the first rise of the year [1] - The improvement in core CPI and PPI indicates a positive trend, driven by stable service consumption, rising gold prices, and higher food prices [1] Group 2: Industry Analysis - The liquor sector has underperformed significantly since 2025, with the CITIC liquor index down 4.6% year-to-date, lagging behind major indices by 22.5 and 30.9 percentage points [2] - Despite ongoing pressure on the liquor industry's fundamentals, a bottoming out is anticipated in the second half of 2025, with expectations of a recovery in 2026 as demand gradually improves [2] - The pig farming industry is currently facing weak realities and expectations, with both fat and piglet prices at yearly lows, leading to widespread losses [2] - A reduction in breeding sow inventory by 0.77% in October suggests a potential market-driven capacity reduction, which may support long-term price increases for pigs [2] Group 3: ETF Performance - As of November 10, 2025, the major consumption index rose by 2.46%, with the leading consumption ETF (560680) increasing by 2.22% [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 68.28%, with notable increases in stocks like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu [3] - The consumption ETF's price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) stands at 19.95, indicating it is at a historical low compared to the past three years [3] - The leading consumption ETF saw a scale increase of 543.94 million yuan in the past week, with significant net inflows over the last five trading days [3]

Core Insights - The pork stocks have shown strength, with notable increases in shares of companies like Luoniushan and Muyuan Foods, indicating a positive market sentiment in the pork industry [1] - The Livestock Breeding ETF (516670) has experienced significant net inflows, suggesting growing investor interest in the sector [1][4] Industry Summary - As of November 9, the average price of live pigs in China is 11.90 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.30 CNY/kg and a year-on-year decline of 4.80% [2][3] - Current breeding profits for self-bred pigs are at a loss of 89.21 CNY per head, while purchased piglets incur a loss of 175.54 CNY per head, indicating a challenging profitability landscape for pig farmers [3] - The industry is facing a potential capacity reduction due to weak prices and policy-driven initiatives, with the price of fat pigs dropping below 12 CNY/kg [3] - Short-term projections suggest an increase in piglet numbers from May to September 2025, which may lead to higher market supply and continued pressure on prices [3] - The Livestock Breeding ETF has the lowest management fee rate of 0.2% per year among ETFs tracking the livestock breeding index, making it an attractive option for investors [4]

截至9月30日，牧原股份股东户数18.56万，较上期减少11.19%；人均流通股20534股，较上期增加 12.60%。2025年1月-9月，牧原股份实现营业收入1117.90亿元，同比增长15.52%；归母净利润147.79亿 元，同比增长41.01%。 分红方面，牧原股份A股上市后累计派现265.76亿元。近三年，累计派现165.94亿元。 牧原股份今年以来股价涨37.26%，近5个交易日涨0.85%，近20日跌3.01%，近60日涨10.88%。 资料显示，牧原食品股份有限公司位于河南省南阳市卧龙区龙升工业园区,香港铜锣湾希慎道33号利园1 期19楼1920室，成立日期2000年7月13日，上市日期2014年1月28日，公司主营业务涉及生猪的养殖销 售、生猪屠宰。主营业务收入构成为：生猪98.68%，屠宰、肉食产品25.30%，饲料原料1.63%，其他 0.49%。 牧原股份所属申万行业为：农林牧渔-养殖业-生猪养殖。所属概念板块包括：猪肉概念、生态农业、合 成生物、乡村振兴、基金重仓等。 11月10日，牧原股份盘中上涨2.05%，截至10:40，报50.73元/股，成交6.08亿元，换手率0.32%， ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, despite ongoing supply pressures and potential acceleration in capacity reduction [1][5][6]. Group 1: Pig Farming - Supply pressures continue to be significant, with a reported decrease in the number of breeding sows by 0.77% month-on-month in October [5][17]. - The average price of market pigs has declined to 12.16 CNY/kg as of November 6, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.49% [5][26]. - The profitability of pig farming remains negative, with losses reported at -89.21 CNY per head for self-bred pigs and -175.54 CNY per head for purchased piglets as of November 7 [5][37]. Group 2: Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather broilers remained stable at 7.09 CNY/kg as of November 7, with a reported loss of -1.25 CNY per bird [5][38]. - The number of breeding chickens has increased significantly, with a 143.18% month-on-month rise in the number of grandparent stock updated in October [5][38]. Group 3: Animal Health - The demand for animal health products is expected to rebound, driven by a recovery in breeding cycles and an increase in inventory levels [5][47]. - The report highlights the ongoing development of vaccines, including progress in African swine fever vaccine trials, which may enhance the sector's growth potential [5][47]. Group 4: Seed Industry - The average prices for wheat, soybean meal, and corn have shown slight declines, with wheat at 2487 CNY/ton, soybean meal at 3098 CNY/ton, and corn at 2239 CNY/ton as of November 7 [5][51]. - The report emphasizes the importance of food security and the promotion of biotechnology in the seed industry [5][51]. Group 5: Pet Industry - Pet food exports amounted to 823 million CNY in September, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, while domestic sales continue to grow, with a 3% increase across major e-commerce platforms [5][56][59]. - The report suggests that companies with a lower proportion of export business may be less affected by tariff disruptions, while those focusing on domestic growth are likely to enhance their market share [5][56][59].

Core Viewpoint - The price of live pigs has dropped significantly, falling below 12 yuan/kg for the first time this year, with a year-on-year decline of over 30% [1][2] Group 1: Price Trends - In October, the average price of live pigs in the national market also fell below 12 yuan/kg, showing no clear signs of recovery [1] - The continuous decline in pig prices is primarily due to an oversupply in the market [1] Group 2: Cost and Production - Advances in large-scale production, breeding technology, and refined management have led to a decrease in overall pig farming costs [1] - Some companies have reported that their total breeding costs have fallen below 12 yuan/kg, with the best-performing farms achieving costs below 11 yuan/kg [1] Group 3: Financial Impact on Companies - The ongoing decline in pig prices has significantly impacted the revenue and profits of related pig farming companies, with many facing substantial drops in profitability [2] - Among 12 A-share listed companies in the pig farming sector, 6 reported a year-on-year decline in revenue for the first three quarters, while 9 saw a drop in net profit, with over half experiencing a profit cut by 50% or more [2] Group 4: Industry Outlook - If pig prices continue to decline sharply, widespread losses among pig farming companies may occur, negatively affecting sustainable operations and potentially impacting local employment and economies [2] - There is a need for government guidance and for companies to enhance technology and management to ensure quality and cost control, promoting high-quality development in the industry [2]