Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Zijin Mining [3]. Core Views - The acquisition of the Raygorodok gold mine project in Kazakhstan is expected to enhance Zijin Mining's resource reserves and gold production capacity, supporting the company's goal of achieving an annual gold output of 100-110 tons by 2028 [6][3]. - The projected net profit for the years 2025-2027 is estimated at 42.7 billion, 47.9 billion, and 56.5 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 12.1, 10.8, and 9.2 [6][3]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 293.4 billion CNY in 2023 to 470.5 billion CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9% [2][13]. - Operating profit is expected to increase significantly from 31.9 billion CNY in 2023 to 85.8 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.79 CNY in 2023 to 2.13 CNY in 2027 [2][14]. Shareholder Information - The major shareholder is Minxi Xinghang State-owned Assets Investment Management Co., Ltd., holding a 22.89% stake in the company [3]. Market Performance - The current share price is 19.5 CNY, with a total market capitalization of approximately 518.3 billion CNY [3].

Core Viewpoint - Ukraine's mineral resources, particularly lithium, are central to geopolitical tensions, with the U.S. attempting to secure these resources through controversial agreements, which ultimately failed due to misjudgments of the geopolitical landscape [1][5][10]. Group 1: Geopolitical Context - The U.S. President Trump's attempt to acquire Ukraine's mineral wealth through a contentious mineral agreement in 2025 was a significant miscalculation, as it underestimated the ongoing geopolitical dynamics [1][5]. - Russia's military actions have drastically altered the landscape of Ukraine's mineral resources, with the Russian military successfully taking control of the Shevchenko lithium mine, one of the largest in Europe, thereby undermining U.S. interests [3][9]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The loss of the Shevchenko lithium mine represents a critical blow to Ukraine's economy, potentially leading to its collapse, as these resources are vital for both military and economic stability [9][10]. - The ongoing conflict and the inability of Ukraine to effectively manage its mineral resources under war conditions highlight the futility of the U.S.-Ukraine mineral agreement, which was never realistically achievable [5][12]. Group 3: Strategic Resource Control - Russia's control over the Shevchenko lithium mine is not just a military victory but also a strategic acquisition of essential resources, which will bolster its economy post-conflict [9][13]. - The strategic importance of lithium and other minerals in the context of the global electric vehicle industry elevates their value, making the U.S. attempts to exploit these resources appear as opportunistic and ultimately unsuccessful [7][12].

重要的消息有哪些 7月1日（周二）申购提示 新股方面，同宇新材申购代码301630，发行价84.00元/股，申购上限1万股。 投资有风险，申购需谨慎。 1．6月30日，外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。有记者就有外媒报道称，中美俄将共同纪念中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年相关问题提问。对 此，毛宁表示，在上周举行的国新办的记者会上，有关部门介绍了抗战胜利80周年纪念活动邀请外国领导人的安排，你可以查阅。你提到的具体问题，目前没有可 以提供的信息。 2．商务部新闻发言人就加拿大政府关闭海康威视在加业务事答记者问。加方以"国家安全"为由，强行关闭海康威视在加业务，并禁止加政府部门购买或使用海康威 视产品。中方对此强烈不满、坚决反对。 3．6月30日，深交所发布《深圳证券交易所股票发行上市审核业务指引第8号——轻资产、高研发投入认定标准》（以下简称《指引》），自发布之日起施行。指 引根据创业板上市公司成长性、创新性特点明确了创业板"轻资产、高研发投入"的认定标准，有助于创业板更好服务科技创新和新质生产力发展。 4．财政部、税务总局、商务部发布关于境外投资者以分配利润直接投资税收抵免政策的公告，境外投资者 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the overall black market, it is recommended to adopt a bearish mindset and try shorting on rebounds due to weak macro and fundamental drivers, cautious market sentiment, and a supply - strong and demand - weak situation [9] - Iron ore is expected to run strongly in the short term as it has strong demand resilience. The i2509 contract price is expected to be in the range of 710 - 740 yuan/ton, and the outer - market FE08 contract price is expected to be in the range of 93 - 97 US dollars/ton [10] - Coking coal and coke may continue the oscillatory and strengthening trend in the short term as recent coal mine production cuts and import volume reduction have alleviated the supply - surplus pressure to some extent [11] - Ferroalloys are expected to run weakly in a narrow range. The supply of ferromanganese is still relatively loose with high inventory pressure, while the supply of ferrosilicon is tight and its supply - demand pattern is slightly better [12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - Futures and spot prices of various varieties in the black industry chain showed different changes from June 20 to June 27, 2025. For example, the closing price of the rebar RB2510 futures contract rose by 0.10% to 2995 yuan/ton, and the spot price of HRB400E Φ20 in Shanghai decreased by 0.32% to 3080 yuan/ton [7] 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast - **Overall Black Market**: The average capacity utilization rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills decreased slightly, while the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased slightly. The market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and it is recommended to be bearish [9] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is in a seasonal increase, but the demand is strong with high daily iron - water production. The inventory is expected to accumulate slightly, and it is expected to run strongly in the short term [10] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coal mine production cuts and import volume reduction have alleviated the supply pressure, and the market sentiment has warmed up. It is expected to run strongly in the short term [11] - **Ferroalloys**: The supply of ferromanganese is loose with high inventory pressure, while the supply of ferrosilicon is tight. Overall, it is expected to run weakly in a narrow range [12] 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Finished Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 217.84 tons, the apparent demand was 219.91 tons, the total inventory was 549.00 tons, and the inventory decreased by 2.07 tons. The basis in Shanghai and Beijing also showed different changes [14][21][33] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last week, the output was 327.24 tons, the apparent demand was 326.25 tons, the total inventory was 341.16 tons, and the inventory increased by 0.99 tons. The basis in Shanghai also changed [26][30][40] 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Imported ore port inventory in 45 ports increased by 36.07 tons to 13930.23 tons last week. The inventory and consumption of 247 steel mills' imported ore, as well as the global shipping volume, also had corresponding changes [42][53][70] 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - The total inventory of coke decreased by 12.02 tons to 940.89 tons last week, and the total inventory of coking coal decreased by 39.64 tons to 2570.76 tons. The profitability, production capacity utilization rate, and other indicators of independent coking enterprises also changed [109][116][122] 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - The spot prices of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon increased slightly last week. The production, demand, inventory, and import volume of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon also had different changes [141][145][158]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Shanghai copper price is expected to be cautiously strong due to disruptions in multiple overseas copper mine productions, low electrolytic copper inventories both at home and abroad, and the easing of mutual tariff levies between China and the US leading to export expectations. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels: for Shanghai copper, the support is around 76,000 - 78,000 and the resistance is around 80,000 - 82,000; for London copper, the support is around 9,000 - 9,300 and the resistance is around 9,800 - 10,000; for US copper, the support is around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance is around 5.0 - 5.5 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On June 27, 2025, the closing price was 79,920, up 1,030 from the previous day; the trading volume was 131,756 lots, an increase of 54,456 lots; the open interest was 215,705 lots, an increase of 24,565 lots; the inventory was 25,346 tons, an increase of 1,650 tons; the average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper was 80,125, up 1,185 [2]. - **London Copper**: On June 27, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,879, down 17 from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 91,275 tons; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 240.67, down 79.16; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 23.89, down 14.53; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.0899, up 0.12 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On June 27, 2025, the closing price of the copper futures active contract was 5.122, up 0.14; the total inventory was 209,281, an increase of 3,146 [2]. Important Information - **Macro - economic**: The US Senate's budget reconciliation bill plans to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion and make three corporate tax cuts set to expire in 2020 in the House version permanent, but no final agreement has been reached on the "state and local tax deduction" (SMLT). The US May CPI annual rate was 2.4%, lower than expected but higher than the previous value. The Trump administration's tariff policy has not triggered a rebound in consumer inflation, increasing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September or December [2]. - **Supply - side**: Ivanhoe Mines' 2025 Kanoa - Kakula copper production guidance is 370,000 - 420,000 metal tons, a 28% decrease from the initial guidance due to an earthquake at the Zakuza copper mine. Several mines had production issues, while some mines like Tongling Nonferrous' Miraado copper mine in Ecuador, Julong copper mine, and ACC Metals' Gediktepe mine have expansion plans that may increase domestic copper concentrate production (import) in June. The China copper concentrate import index is negative and has decreased from last week, and port copper concentrate out - port (in - port, inventory) volumes have changed accordingly [2]. - **Demand - side**: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) has increased (decreased) from last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventories of relevant enterprises have changed accordingly. The production start - up rate of Chinese copper wire and cable has decreased, and the raw material (finished product) inventories of relevant enterprises have changed. The order volume (capacity utilization rate) of Chinese copper liquid - coated wire has increased (decreased), and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of relevant enterprises have decreased. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese brass rods has decreased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of relevant enterprises have increased. Due to the easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US and the arrival of the traditional consumption off - season, the capacity utilization rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic steel enterprises in June may decline (increase, increase, decrease) [2]. Trading Strategy Pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper as mentioned above [2].

Group 1 - The global mining industry is undergoing a significant digital revolution, with China positioned as a major player in mineral resource production and consumption [1] - The Chinese government has set ambitious targets for smart mining, aiming for at least 60% of coal mining capacity to be intelligent by 2026, with over 30% of hazardous positions replaced by robots and a reduction of more than 10% in underground workers [1] - As of September 2024, China has established 1,642 intelligent mining faces, deployed 2,640 robots, and 1,328 unmanned vehicles, achieving significant advancements in smart mining technology [1] Group 2 - The market for smart mining is projected to reach 67 billion yuan by 2025 and exceed 120 billion yuan by 2035, with the total market size for intelligent coal and non-coal mines expected to surpass 2.3 trillion yuan by 2030 [2] - Despite notable achievements in mining intelligence, challenges remain, including insufficient technology adaptability and a talent gap in operational and maintenance roles, with a supply-demand ratio of 1:4.3 for intelligent engineers [2] - Experts recommend enhancing top-level design and policy guidance for mining digitalization, increasing financial support, and developing low-cost, modular smart solutions tailored for small and medium-sized mines [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the black - series commodities generally declined. In the second half, prices may fall again to find cost support and then gradually stabilize and rebound in the fourth quarter due to production cuts and policy expectations [2] - The cost decline is an important factor in the decline of steel prices. In 2025, the high iron - water output did not drive up steel prices because of the loose supply of upstream raw materials [3][10] - Manufacturing and exports supported steel demand in the first half of 2025. However, the demand growth rate may slow down in the second half [40][48] - The output of crude steel is expected to decline year - on - year in the second half of 2025. The iron - water output may show a pattern of first stabilizing, then declining, and then increasing [71] - Downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to actively reduce inventory. The steel industry chain will jointly seek cost support, and prices may gradually stabilize and rebound in the fourth quarter [74][78] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost and Supply - **Coal**: In the first half of 2025, domestic coking coal production increased, with the output from January to April at 156.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. Although production decreased in May due to safety inspections, it is expected to gradually recover in July. Imports remained at a high level, and the total domestic coking coal supply in the first half is expected to increase by 8.5 million tons year - on - year [14] - **Iron ore**: In February, global iron ore shipments decreased by 8 million tons year - on - year due to hurricanes. The shipments basically remained flat in the first half. The expected increase in 2025 is less than the end - of - 2024 forecast, about 11 million tons, and is expected to exceed 40 million tons in 2026 [20][33] Demand - **Manufacturing**: In the first half of 2025, the steel demand in manufacturing increased. From January to May, the production and sales of automobiles, home appliances, and machinery all increased. However, the demand growth rate may slow down in the second half [40][48] - **Export**: From January to May 2025, steel exports reached 48.469 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. Although exports to Vietnam decreased, those to other regions such as Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America increased. Indirect exports also increased, but may face pressure in the second half [44] - **Infrastructure**: From January to May 2025, the infrastructure investment growth rate was 5.6%, but it declined from April to May, especially in May. The steel demand in the infrastructure industry is facing a differentiated situation [47] - **Real estate**: From January to May 2025, the new construction area of real estate decreased by 22.8% year - on - year. The real estate data weakened again from April to May, and the new construction is expected to remain weak in the second half [63][65] Production and Inventory - **Production**: The average daily iron - water output in the first half of 2025 was around 2.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. The iron - water output in the second half may show a pattern of first stabilizing, then declining, and then increasing. The production of crude steel is expected to decline year - on - year in the second half [71] - **Inventory**: Downstream enterprises are actively reducing inventory. The iron ore inventory of steel mills and the coking coal inventory of coking plants are at low levels and tend to decline further [74] Price Trend - In the short term, the prices of raw materials have rebounded. However, from July to August, the black - series commodities may weaken again. As production cuts progress, the bottom may be gradually found, and prices may stabilize and rebound in the fourth quarter [78]

Group 1 - The "2025 China Enterprises Going Global Summit" was held in Shenzhen, focusing on providing a high-end platform for Chinese companies to address challenges in going global amidst the restructuring of global industrial chains [1] - The summit aimed to facilitate resource connections, rule dialogues, and idea exchanges among Chinese enterprises [1] Group 2 - Zhang Ping, founder and CEO of Shanhaitu, shared insights on preferred Southeast Asian countries for Chinese enterprises based on industry types, recommending Vietnam for textiles and toys, Indonesia for resource industries, Thailand for tourism and e-commerce, and Malaysia for mid-to-high-end manufacturing like semiconductors [3] - Zhang Ping highlighted the challenges faced by Chinese manufacturing companies abroad, citing an example of a Chinese firm that took years to establish a smelting plant in Indonesia, emphasizing the perseverance required to transfer Chinese technology [3]

Group 1 - The Russian military has successfully captured a lithium mining area near Shevchenkove village in eastern Ukraine, which is considered the second-largest lithium resource field in Ukraine [1][3] - The lithium deposit covers approximately 100 acres (about 40 hectares) and is classified as one of Europe's high-quality lithium mines, with lithium oxide reserves estimated at around 1.2 million tons and lithium grades between 1.3% and 1.5% [1][3] - The capture of this lithium resource poses a significant challenge to the mineral development framework agreement signed between the U.S. and Ukraine in April, which aimed to establish a fund for lithium mining development with a 50:50 profit-sharing arrangement [3][4] Group 2 - The Shevchenkove lithium mine is strategically located near the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and close to the city of Pokrovsk, which is supported by Russia, highlighting the connection between battlefield dynamics and resource economics [4] - The lithium resources are widely used in electric vehicles, electronic devices, and energy storage, indicating a rising market demand and value for these materials [4] - Analysts predict that if the situation stabilizes, Russia may quickly advance the development of the captured lithium mine, further complicating the U.S.-Ukraine agreement [3][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Vale is on the path to becoming the largest mining company globally [1] - The nickel market is facing an oversupply issue, yet the nickel business still holds strategic value [1] - Geopolitical tensions are impacting global GDP and commodity prices [1]