Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a decline in both sales volume and price, with a need for policy support to stabilize the market [2][5] - In the first half of 2025, the total sales area of commercial housing reached 460 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%, while the sales amount was 4.4 trillion yuan, down 5.5% year-on-year [2][10] - The report highlights a widening decline in real estate investment, with a total investment of 4.7 trillion yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year [3][18] - The number of cities with rising housing prices is decreasing, indicating a need for policy measures to stabilize prices [4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In June 2025, the sales area of commercial housing was 110 million square meters, with a month-on-month decline of 5.5%, and the sales amount was 1 trillion yuan, down 10.8% year-on-year [2][10] Supply Side - Real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, with residential investment down 10.4% [3] - New construction area was 300 million square meters, down 20.0% year-on-year, while completed area was 230 million square meters, down 14.8% [3][18] Funding Situation - Funds available for real estate companies totaled 5 trillion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year, with domestic loans increasing by 0.6% [3][20] Price Trends - In June 2025, new home prices in 70 cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices decreased by 0.6% [4] Policy Outlook - The report anticipates a new round of policy measures aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including potential adjustments to purchase restrictions and efforts to reduce inventory [4][5]

Macro Insights - June CPI data shows a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, marking the first positive reading since February 2023, while core inflation rose to 0.7%[4] - Manufacturing PMI stands at 49.7, indicating continued contraction, despite a recovery in export orders PMI to 47.7 in May-June[4] - Exports in June saw a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, maintaining a relatively high level despite a slight decline[4] Market Strategy - The 3400-point level is identified as a new starting point for a slow bull market, driven by the revaluation of Chinese assets and increasing institutional demand for high-dividend sectors[4] - The financial sector, particularly banks and brokerages, is expected to lead the market, with institutional funds gradually gaining pricing power[4] - The market is anticipated to maintain an upward trend, supported by active themes such as stablecoins and a shift towards value growth stocks[5] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to increase positions and actively participate in the bull market, focusing on value growth as a core strategy[6] - Short-term recommendations include non-bank financial sectors like insurance and brokerages, alongside technology sectors with strong growth potential[6] - The bond market is viewed as neutral to slightly bullish, with expectations of continued liquidity easing and a stable interest rate environment[6] Sector Performance - The banking sector is expected to see marginal improvements in mid-year earnings, with the banking index rising by 2.73% recently, outperforming the CSI 300 index[9] - Real estate sales are declining, with new home sales down 13.4% year-on-year in 30 cities, prompting calls for increased investment in urbanization initiatives[10] - The securities sector is becoming more active, with daily trading volumes rising from 1.22 trillion to 1.74 trillion CNY, indicating a recovery in investor confidence[11]

7月14日，揭阳市榕城区土地市场迎来一宗成功交易。经过近1个小时的激烈竞拍，3家企业在51轮竞价后，最终以总价4.8632亿元成功竞得榕城区编号 RC2025004地块国有住宅用地使用权。该成交价相较于2.8632亿元的起始价，溢价高达2亿元，溢价率69.85%。 此次成功出让，是揭阳市贯彻落实妥善处置闲置存量土地稳房地产市场的具体实践。记者从揭阳市自然资源局获悉，近段时间以来，该市充分利用《关于实 施妥善处置闲置存量土地若干政策措施的通知》（自然资发〔2024〕104号，简称104号文）"政府收回收购闲置存量土地"政策利好，通过分割收回用地单位 无力继续开发的闲置存量土地，整合周边存量国有用地并根据市场需求盘活出让，有效促进节约集约用地，促进揭阳市房地产市场平稳健康发展。 该宗地涉及收回企业闲置用地28.81亩，盘活国有住宅存量用地42.77亩。据悉，揭阳市榕城区人民政府积极做好宗地清拆围、招商引资、申请调整单元规划 及项目土地出让等相关工作，积极配合揭阳市自然资源局与揭阳万金置业有限公司协商分割收回万达公寓闲置宗地28.81亩并盘活利用、整合出让。经过 市、区两级合力推动，最终于7月14日完成宗地挂牌出让 ...

当一个楼盘熬成了现房销售时，购房者反而要打起12分精神——如今在青岛楼市里，盲目迷信"现房优先"，很可能让你掉进另外一个大坑！ ▲西海岸丁家河板块实景 1、 当心现房变陷阱 最近两年，开发商频频爆雷，烂尾、延期、减配……层出不穷，不少购房者谈期房色变。一时间，买房就选现房，被很多人奉为金科玉律。毕竟现房最大 的好处就是所见即所得，安全省心，不会再被开发商画大饼欺骗。然而，这条听起来稳妥的准则，在当下青岛楼市却暗藏一个认知误区。 如果一个楼盘到了现房阶段仍然卖不动，那说明它存在的硬伤，早已抵消了现房的核心优势。换句话说，真正好的房子，根本轮不到等你看现房，它早卖 光了。 想象一下：如果一个项目从开盘，熬到了盖完了、交房了，还是剩有大量房源，那很可能是因为产品本身有硬伤。现房卖不动，通常逃不出以下几种原 因：要么定价离谱，要么户型设计不行，要么地段配套有短板，要么开发商品牌口碑差。这些问题每一条都够致命，而且足以把"现房现卖、眼见为实"的 优势打个对折。 事实上，当下青岛楼市正呈现两极分化：好房子不愁卖，没亮点的房子越来越难卖。2025年上半年青岛新房成交量相比去年略有增长，市场出现企稳迹 象，但这"稳"是相对的 ...

Report Summary 1. Hot News - China's H1 GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, a 5.3% YoY increase. Q1 GDP rose 5.4% YoY, and Q2 grew 5.2%. H1 fixed - asset investment increased 2.8%, with real - estate development investment down 11.2%. In June, industrial added - value of large - scale enterprises rose 6.8% YoY, and retail sales of consumer goods increased 4.8% [3] - In June, according to 70 - city housing price data, housing prices in all tiers declined MoM, with the YoY decline narrowing. 14 cities saw new - home prices rise MoM, led by Shanghai and Changsha with a 0.4% increase. Only Xining's second - hand home prices rose MoM [3] - The EU Foreign Affairs Council failed to reach an agreement on the 18th round of sanctions against Russia due to opposition from Malta and Slovakia. The sanctions target Russia's energy revenue [3] - China adjusted the catalog of technologies prohibited or restricted for export, deleting 3 items, adding 1, and modifying 1. The newly restricted export technology is battery cathode material preparation technology [3] - US CPI in June rose 2.7% YoY, the highest since February, meeting market expectations. Core CPI rose 2.9% YoY and 0.2% MoM, both below expectations. Traders predict the Fed will start cutting rates in September, with nearly two cuts by the end of the year [4] 2. Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are urea, crude oil, PVC, hot - rolled coil, and soybean oil [5] 3. Night - session Performance - Sector performance: Non - metallic building materials 2.88%, precious metals 28.77%, oilseeds and oils 12.23%, non - ferrous metals 2.80%, soft commodities 18.96%, coal, coke, and steel ore 14.40%, energy 3.27%, chemicals 12.70%, grains 1.23%, agricultural and sideline products 2.77% [5] 4. Sector Positions - The document shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days [6] 5. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 0.42 | 1.76 | 4.57 | | | SSE 50 | - 0.38 | 1.30 | 2.33 | | | CSI 300 | 0.03 | 2.11 | 2.14 | | | CSI 500 | - 0.03 | 1.75 | 5.12 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.40 | 0.63 | 6.16 | | | Hang Seng Index | 1.60 | 2.15 | 22.58 | | | German DAX | - 0.42 | 0.63 | 20.85 | | | Nikkei 225 | 0.55 | - 2.00 | - 0.54 | | | UK FTSE 100 | - 0.66 | 2.02 | 9.36 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury futures | 0.18 | - 0.00 | - 0.03 | | | 5 - year Treasury futures | 0.13 | - 0.13 | - 0.48 | | | 2 - year Treasury futures | 0.04 | - 0.08 | - 0.54 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | - 0.23 | 1.82 | 2.02 | | | WTI Crude Oil | - 0.39 | 2.65 | - 7.23 | | | London Spot Gold | - 0.59 | 0.64 | 26.64 | | | LME Copper | 0.00 | - 2.37 | 9.82 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 0.17 | 1.86 | 15.92 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.53 | 1.92 | - 9.08 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 2.81 | - 0.86 | [8]

本次电话会议仅服务于国泰海通证券正式签约客户会因点击文字记录的内容仅供国泰海通证券客户内部学习使用不得外发并且必须经国泰海通证券研究所审核后方可留存国泰海通证券未授权任何媒体转发此次电话会议相关内容未经允许和授权转载转发均属侵权国泰海通证券将保留追究其法律责任的权利国泰海通证券不承担因转载转发引起的任何损失及责任 虽然有风险投资需谨慎提醒广大投资者谨慎做出投资决策谢谢大家在周五早上听我们关于方向的相关投资逻辑和后期判断那么我是国泰海航的方向行业分析师独立磊那么对后期的市场包括昨天的异动我们分四个维度讲一下第一块讲一下昨天波动的一个原因我们认为主要的逻辑还是在于一个补涨的大的趋势因为从2800点到3400点包括港股的大牛市氛围 地产是始终表现相对较弱的所以在各种的你可能是短期消息或者是消息层面有一些刺激和波动的时候市场容易形成较大的移动相比较而言目前地产板块是一个3D低关注度DPD第三个就是低仓链所以一旦有些分配炒作的时候包括各一型资金可能是集中向板块内去进行柔动炒作的时候容易形成较大的共识和市场掌控 化解层层债务第二个呢是银行板块的注资第三件呢就是房地产的收取工作我们会看到前两件事的落地度是比较高的层层债务现 ...

同比增长是有百分之六十几那日均也是今年是十三十四亿去年是八到九个亿所以整体增幅是比较好的那如果抛开这个数据背后的这个具体的来看今年其实整体这个五天的持销主要是续销的项目在销售还没有首开或者是加推的一些销售额的贡献 揭发的销售表现比起去年同期水平整体区化率水平是有在提升的这个是量上的一个反应从价格上面来看今年我们其实整个集团非常重要的一个核心工作就是提价因为去年确实从无论是大市场的原因或者是我们这个项目价格调整的因素确实整体价格有下行 那今年以来其实从去年十一过后十一过后我们也一直在在内部的复盘说我们现在每个项目的价值的一个情况所以后续这从去年十月底至今我们有好的项目客户讯客基础好并且能够具备提价基础的其实都在陆续提价的一个过程那今年呢一季度从 我们对于我们未售的货值进提的一个货值的金额已经是提价了10个亿以上了而且现在也陆续包括有一些新的开盘的项目能够价格去突破之前拿地的预期的项目还是有的所以今年来确实我们第一个就是要卖到量卖到价就是比较简单的这样的一个 一个逻辑那公司其实从一线我觉得今年从一线包括到集团整体的建发网去整个士气还是比较足的也是卯足的正在往前冲所以整体今年其实五一的销售我觉得对比同行其实整体销售 ...

推进城市发展与房地产市场核心政策导向相辅相成 1978-2024年我国城镇化率年均增长率 | 1978-1990年 | 0.71% | | --- | --- | | 1991-2000年 | 0.98% | | 2001-2010年 | 1.37% | | 2011-2020年 | 1.39% | | 2011-2015年 | 1.48% | | 2016-2020年 | 1.31% | | 2021-2024年 | 0.78% | 来源：新华财经、中国政法大学商学院副教授熊柴 此次会议也是2015年以来第二次以中央名义召开的城市工作会议。中指研究院政策研究总监陈文静表 示，经过十年发展，我国城市数量增加至694个，2024年有27个城市GDP超过1万亿元，城镇化率由2015 年的57.3%提升至67%，进程有所放缓；城镇人口也由2015年的7.9亿人增加至9.4亿人，每年城镇新增常 住人口超1600万人，而2021-2024年年均增加1033万人。她说，可以看出，在城市工作取得积极成效的 同时，城市发展也出现了新特征，城镇化进入了稳定发展期。 熊柴说，2015年、2025年的这两次中央城市工作会议召开的背 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The economy grew steadily in the first half of the year, with GDP up 5.3% year-on-year, showing a mild recovery. The service industry was the core of economic growth, and industrial production continued to rise in June. However, there were risks such as potential pork overcapacity and PPI deflation spreading to the consumer side [4]. - Domestic demand showed resilience, but external uncertainties increased. The economy maintained high growth in the first half, with new productive forces accelerating industrial upgrading. However, trade protectionism and geopolitical risks posed challenges [6]. Summary by Directory Growth: Steady Growth - The GDP in the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year-on-year, with the service industry contributing significantly. In June, industrial production continued to grow, and high-tech and equipment manufacturing industries maintained relatively fast growth [4][11]. Inflation: PPI Under Pressure - In June 2025, PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. The decline was mainly due to factors like loose energy and raw material supply, pressure on export - dependent industries, and international input adjustments. Some high - tech and consumer - related sectors showed positive changes [21][22]. Investment: Marginal Slowdown - From January to June 2025, national fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% year-on-year, with a slowdown in growth. Manufacturing investment was the main driver, and high - tech fields performed well. However, private investment overall declined, excluding real estate [58]. Production: Widening Differentiation - In the first half of 2025, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.4% year-on-year. There was significant industry differentiation, with high - tech sectors like the automotive and computer equipment manufacturing leading in capacity utilization, while upstream raw material industries were weak [64]. Consumption: Policy Effectiveness - In June 2025, the consumer market continued to recover, with the total retail sales of consumer goods up 4.8% year-on-year. The "trade - in" policy was effective, and online sales and service consumption showed strong growth [73]. Real Estate: Investment Under Pressure - In the first half of 2025, the real estate market was at the bottoming stage. Real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, and the sales side showed regional differentiation. Policy support was in place, but the market still faced challenges such as investment pressure and regional disparities [81]. Appendix: National Bureau of Statistics Announcement - The national economy showed a stable and positive trend in the first half of the year. GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with stable growth in production and demand, stable employment, increased resident income, and the growth of new driving forces [103].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in group buying of real estate in China, led by economist Lang Xianping, highlighting the strategies and market conditions that are driving this trend [4][12][16]. Group 1: Market Activity - Lang Xianping's group successfully purchased over 150 new homes in a recent buying spree, exceeding initial expectations of 50-60 units [4]. - The property "Hongrongyuan Jiayu Jiu Xi" has seen increased demand post-group purchase, leading to a stock shortage and plans for new product launches [6][21]. Group 2: Economic Context - The current economic climate is at a critical juncture, with expectations of imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could stimulate economic recovery [12][13]. - The stock market has already begun to reflect these expectations, with A-shares returning to 3500 points and significant gains in U.S. stocks, particularly Nvidia reaching a market cap of $4 trillion [14][15]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Lang Xianping's investment strategy emphasizes three key principles: timing, product selection, and the importance of "good housing" [12][19]. - The focus on "good housing" reflects a shift in the market towards properties that offer livability and long-term value, as seen in the success of the Jiayu project [20][23].