Group 1: Report Title and General Information - Report title: Cotton Weekly Report: Fast De - stocking, Cotton Prices Slightly Bullish in Fluctuation [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] - Futures practice certificate number: F3013727 [1] - Consulting practice certificate number: Z0014425 [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is influenced by both macro - factors and fundamentals. Considering potential increased purchases from countries like Vietnam, the US cotton price is expected to be slightly bullish in fluctuation. The Zhengzhou cotton price also has the potential to be slightly bullish in fluctuation if the current de - stocking speed is maintained [7][14][23] Group 3: International Market Analysis US Cotton Market - The US cotton market is mainly affected by macro - factors. With potential increased purchases from countries like Vietnam, the price is expected to be slightly bullish in fluctuation [7] - As of June 8, the planting rate of cotton in 15 major cotton - planting states in the US was 76%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 4 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The squaring rate was 12%, 1 percentage point slower than last year and the same as the five - year average. The good - to - excellent rate was 49%, 7 percentage points lower than last year and 1 percentage point lower than the five - year average [7] - As of the week ending June 5, the weekly signing volume of 2024/25 US upland cotton was 1.36 million tons, a 45% week - on - week decrease and a 51% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 0.82 million tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2024/25 US upland cotton was 5.36 million tons, a 25% week - on - week decrease and a 19% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks [7] - As of June 6, the number of un - priced contracts of the ON - CALL 2507 contract held by sellers decreased by 1511 to 12276, a decrease of 30,000 tons from last week. The total number of un - priced contracts of the 24/25 annual sellers decreased by 1511 to 12276, equivalent to 280,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from last week. The total number of un - priced contracts of ICE sellers increased to 51692, equivalent to 1.17 million tons, an increase of 152 from last week [7] Global Cotton Situation - According to the latest USDA June data, the global cotton production in 25/26 was revised down by 178,000 tons to 25.47 million tons, with China's production increasing by 218,000 tons, India's decreasing by 217,000 tons, and the US's decreasing by 109,000 tons to 3.048 million tons. The total consumption was revised down by 70,000 tons to 25.638 million tons, with India's consumption decreasing by 109,000 tons to 555,200 tons. The global ending inventory in June decreased by 344,000 tons to 16.721 million tons, with the US's ending inventory decreasing by 196,000 tons [7] Group 4: Domestic Market Analysis Supply Side - As of May, the national commercial cotton inventory in China was 3.4587 million tons, at a relatively low level compared to historical data. As of June 6, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 3.2092 million tons, a decrease of 128,700 tons (3.86%) from last week. The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 108,200 tons (4.49%) and that in inland areas decreased by 4,600 tons (1.02%) [14] Demand Side - It is currently the off - season for market consumption. As of the end of May, the yarn inventory days in China were 22.34, and the grey fabric inventory was 32.89, both at relatively low levels compared to historical data. As of June 12, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 72.2%, a 2.43% decrease from the previous period. The cotton sales situation is relatively fast. As of June 5, the national new cotton sales rate was 88.2%, with a cumulative sales volume of 5.889 million tons, an increase of 163,000 tons from the previous period and a decrease of 729,400 tons compared to the four - year average [14] Overall Situation - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price is affected by macro - factors such as Sino - US trade relations and China's trade policies with other countries, which bring uncertainties. From the fundamental perspective, if the current de - stocking speed is maintained, the cotton price may be slightly bullish in fluctuation [14] Group 5: Option Strategies - On June 12, 2025, relevant data of several cotton option contracts are provided, including the option contract name, underlying contract price, closing price, price change rate, implied volatility (IV), Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta, theoretical leverage, and actual leverage [19] - The 120 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton was 10.4973. The position PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract was 0.9529, and the trading volume PCR was 0.6548. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased. The option strategy is to wait and see [21] Group 6: Futures Trading Strategies - The trading logic is similar to the analysis of the Zhengzhou cotton price. The price is affected by macro - factors and fundamentals. The strategies are as follows: for single - sided trading, the US cotton price is expected to be slightly bullish in fluctuation, and the Zhengzhou cotton price is expected to be bullish in fluctuation; for arbitrage and options, the strategy is to wait and see [23] Group 7: Weekly Data Tracking - The report presents data on the price difference between domestic and international cotton, the price difference between September and January contracts, the operating load of pure - cotton spinning mills and full - cotton grey fabric mills, yarn and grey fabric inventory days, cotton inventory (including commercial, industrial, and reserve inventories), and the basis of cotton futures and spot [25][26][28]

Core Viewpoint - The rise in China's consumption capacity and its strategy to expand domestic demand are reshaping global trade and providing new opportunities for developing economies [1][4]. Group 1: China's Economic Impact - China has a population of over 1.4 billion, with nearly 500 million middle-income individuals, leading to a rapidly growing consumer market with annual retail sales exceeding $6.5 trillion [3][4]. - China has been the world's second-largest import market for 16 consecutive years, indicating its role not just as an exporter but also as a significant consumer of raw materials [4][5]. - The economic model of China, which focuses on adding value to raw materials before re-exporting, serves as a valuable reference for many developing countries, particularly in Africa [4]. Group 2: Opportunities for Developing Economies - The local value addition exemplified by Chinese projects, such as the Dangote refinery in Nigeria and industrial parks in Ethiopia, reduces reliance on imports and creates job opportunities [4][5]. - China's market opening policies, including zero-tariff access for least developed countries that establish diplomatic relations with China, provide competitive advantages for African exporters [4][5]. - Digital platforms are transforming consumption in China and offer African countries the opportunity to reach millions of consumers within hours [5]. Group 3: Strategic Partnerships - China demonstrates that enhancing economic resilience through consumption, creating jobs via value addition, and establishing long-term strategic cooperation through trade policies are viable paths for developing economies [6].

油脂产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月13日 干泽辉 Z0019938 | | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8050 | 8080 | -30 | -0.37% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7394 | 7390 | 4 | 0.05% | | 某差 | Y2509 | 656 | 690 | -34 | -4.93% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | 09+270 | 09+270 | 0 | | | 合单 | | 17552 | 17652 | -100 | -0.57% | 棕榈油 | | | 6月12日 | 6月11日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8350 | 8450 | -100 | -1.18% | | 期价 | P2509 | 7904 | 7898 | 6 | 0.08% | | 某差 | P2509 | 446 | 552 | -106 | -19.2 ...

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: June 13, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Recommendations - Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated. The latest China Cotton Price Index for Grade 328 was 14,852 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Different regions had various cotton basis quotes. The cotton yarn market had slightly better but still weak trading, with prices stable and difficult to increase. Spinning mill profits deteriorated due to strong cotton and weak yarn. The cotton grey fabric market was sluggish, with prices remaining stable and weak. After the end of the Eid al-Adha festival in Xinjiang, local weaving factories gradually resumed work, but the overall operating rate was low [7] - Overseas, the shipment progress of old - crop cotton was good, and the good - to - excellent rate was weaker than the same period last year, supporting the foreign market. In the domestic market, with a stable or slightly increasing planting area, the new - crop cotton output was expected to be stable or slightly increase. There was a high risk of high - temperature heat damage in the budding period in most cotton - growing areas in southern Xinjiang this week. The downstream yarn and grey fabric sectors continued to weaken, with weak market demand, stable or increasing finished - product inventories, and a stable or decreasing operating rate of inland spinning mills. Downstream profits gradually deteriorated. In the short term, the fundamental drivers were limited, and the Zhengzhou cotton price was in a difficult situation. Attention should be paid to the performance at the upper pressure level [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to the USDA's weekly crop growth report, as of the week ending June 8, the U.S. cotton planting progress was 76% (79% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 80%), the budding rate was 12% (13% in the same period last year), and the good - to - excellent rate was 49% (56% in the same period last year) [9] - According to CONAB, as of June 7, 2025, the cotton harvest progress in Brazil was 1.4% (0.9% last week and 1.7% in the same period last year) [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provided various data charts, including China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates such as USD/CNY and USD/INR [16][18][26]

Group 1 - The 2025 China International Cotton Conference was held in Guangzhou, focusing on sustainable cotton development and promoting new consumption trends in the industry [1] - Keynote speaker Wang Jianhong emphasized the need for the cotton industry to adapt to external challenges and enhance quality, brand influence, and market expansion [1][2] - The conference included discussions on balancing supply and demand in the cotton market, with a focus on stabilizing domestic consumption [2] Group 2 - The cotton target price policy is crucial for the sustainable development of the Xinjiang cotton industry, aiming to stabilize planting area and total output [2] - The importance of futures tools for risk management in the cotton and textile industries was highlighted, with companies increasingly recognizing their value [3] - A roundtable discussion featured insights from various industry leaders on domestic cotton pricing, consumption demand, and the use of futures for risk management [4]

Group 1: Report Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Date: June 12, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market review: Supported by macro factors, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated strongly. The latest cotton price index for Grade 328 was 14,784 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market was slightly better but still dull, and the cotton fabric market was light. After the end of the Eid al-Adha festival in Xinjiang, the local weaving mills resumed work, but the overall operating rate was low [7] - Macro situation: China and the US have reached a framework agreement in principle, with limited positive impact. Overseas, the shipment progress of old cotton was good, and the good and excellent rate was weaker than the same period last year, supporting the external market. Domestically, the market expected the new cotton output to increase steadily. The downstream yarn and fabric sectors continued to weaken, with weak market demand and increasing inventory [8] - Operation suggestion: In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate and adjust narrowly. Pay attention to the performance of the upper pressure level [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending June 8, the US cotton planting progress was 76%, the budding rate was 12%, and the good and excellent rate was 49%, all weaker than the same period last year [9] - As of June 7, 2025, the cotton harvest progress in Brazil was 1.4%, slower than the same period last year [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, China cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, etc., with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][18][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Different commodities show various import profit, price difference, and market trends, which are affected by factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and production and consumption patterns. Attention should be paid to policy changes and market dynamics for investment decisions [1][2][3] Summary by Category Metals - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For non - ferrous metals, understand logistics margins, major importers, and resource dependence. Aluminum and zinc should end their reverse spreads, while for tin, with the smooth resumption of overseas and Myanmar mines and low LME inventory, pay attention to the positive spread. Nickel, zinc, copper, and aluminum all have negative import profits [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - term shipments and arrivals are increasing, iron - water production is fluctuating at a high level. Overseas macro has strong short - term disturbances, and the domestic macro is relatively stable. The ore price center has declined, and there are few short - term opportunities for internal - external spreads, with the core being to profit from the discount of Dalian iron ore futures. In the long run, the global balance sheet is slightly in surplus compared to China's [1] - **Precious Metals**: The RMB exchange rate has an impact on the domestic price of precious metals, causing the internal - external price ratio to decline rapidly. The domestic consumption peak season has passed, while India's Diwali supports gold consumption. The silver spot discount has widened, and the import window is closed [3] Energy - **SC**: The spot discount on arrival has weakened, and the internal - external spread has also weakened [1] - **FU**: In summer, the internal - external spread maintains a weak pattern and has been fluctuating recently [1] - **LU**: The internal - external spread has widened again, and domestic production in June is relatively high [1] - **PG**: Recently, FEI and MB have declined, CP has increased. The internal - external spread has decreased, especially PG - CP. FEI - MB has changed little, FEI - CP has declined, and CP - MB has increased [1] - **PX**: Domestic PX production has declined, and there are still some overseas maintenance. As TA restarts, the PX de - stocking rate is expected to increase. The current internal - external spread has converged significantly, and the valuation is gradually neutral. It is advisable to wait and see [1] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Due to the trade war and sanctions, the internal and external cotton markets have gradually decoupled. Previously, US cotton was stronger than Zhengzhou cotton due to high US tariffs on China. Now, after tariff cuts, Zhengzhou cotton is stronger. Continuously monitor subsequent tariff policy changes [2] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Oilseeds and oils have a high degree of import dependence. The international supply - demand balance is transmitted to the domestic market through imports. Focus on the difference in internal and external supply - demand rhythms [2]

宏观 股指 市场分析：当日沪深两市成交额 1.45 万亿元，较前日放量 10.57%。银行、创新药等防御性 板块领涨，而半导体、航天航空等高波动板块承压。上证 50 主力合约 IH2506 持仓量环比下 降 2.82%，短期多空分歧加剧。中证 1000 收盘价接近压力位 6226 左右，若突破需成交量配 合；沪深 300 收盘价接近支撑位 3514 左右，短期反弹动能不足。 参考观点：中证 1000 波动率较高，建议关注 6227 附近压力位突破情况；上证 50 建议结合 持仓量变化判断趋势持续性；沪深 300 波动率处于低位，但成交额占比稳定，可作为中长期 配置参考；中证 1000 与沪深 300 的波动率比值（1.56）接近 2024 年均值（1.62），可关注 均值回归机会。 原油 宏观与地缘：上周五美国非农数据超预期，削弱美联储降息紧迫性，同时中美第二轮谈判， 市场对经贸缓和有一定预期，原油价格或偏强震荡，关注 WTI 主力 65 美元/桶关键位置。 市场分析：基本面看，OPEC 大幅调降未来两年全球需求增速，美国贸易战升级，特朗普政 府政策多变，引发市场对全球需求担忧。库存方面，美原油库存虽然下滑， ...

Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: June 11, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Macro factors boosted Zhengzhou cotton to rebound. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 14,743 yuan/ton, up 123 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market continued to weaken, entering the seasonal off - season. The grey fabric market remained sluggish, with weak trading volume and fewer orders. The raw material procurement was cautious, and the grey fabric inventory increased [7]. - **Macro and Overseas Situation**: The macro - environment was temporarily good under China - US consultations. Overseas, the old - crop shipment progress was good, and the good - quality rate was weaker than last year, supporting the foreign market. The US Department of Agriculture's June supply - demand report was to be watched [8]. - **Domestic Situation**: The domestic new - cotton output was expected to increase steadily with a stable or increasing planting area. There was a high risk of high - temperature heat damage in the budding period in most cotton areas in southern Xinjiang this week. The downstream cotton yarn and grey fabric sectors continued to weaken, and the market demand was not strong. Due to the Gurban Festival in Xinjiang, some spinning mills had holidays, and the short - term startup rate decreased. The downstream finished - product inventory increased steadily, and the grey fabric inventory pressure was greater than that of cotton yarn. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton would fluctuate within a narrow range, and the performance of the upper pressure level should be watched [8]. Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending June 8, the US cotton planting progress was 76% (last year: 79%, five - year average: 80%, previous week: 66%), the budding rate was 12% (last week: 8%, last year: 13%, five - year average: 12%), and the good - quality rate was 49% (last year: 56%) [9]. - As of June 7, 2025, the Brazilian cotton harvest progress was 1.4% (last week: 0.9%, last year: 1.7%) [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report provided multiple data charts including CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, China cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, etc., with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][18][19]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [2][4][7] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current tariff policy has high uncertainty, and there is a strong expectation of a bumper cotton harvest in Xinjiang in the new year. The domestic market has entered the consumption off - season, and Zhengzhou cotton may bottom out again after a short - term rebound. The core contradiction lies in the time when downstream demand recession spreads to the upstream [2] - Zhengzhou sugar generally follows the trend of raw sugar. The 2025/2026 global sugar supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus, and Zhengzhou sugar may continue to weaken in the medium - to - long term [4][5] - Macro - level positive factors drive the pulp price to recover from the bottom, but the tariff uncertainty is still strong. As the off - season approaches and the terminal demand outlook is pessimistic, the pulp price may continue to oscillate at a low level [7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,495 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton (+1.01%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,485 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,620 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan/ton. As of the end of May, the national commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a decrease of 693,900 tons (-16.71%) from the previous month and 315,400 tons (-8.36%) lower than the same period last year [1] Market Analysis - Macroscopically, the Sino - US trade negotiations sent positive signals, boosting the domestic cotton price. The US cotton sowing progress is slow, but the rainfall in the main producing areas has improved the drought. The international cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Domestically, the commercial cotton inventory is accelerating destocking, but the new - year planting area is increasing, and the downstream demand is in the off - season, with insufficient support on the demand side [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5734 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.02%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6080 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5900 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. In the 2024/2025 sugar - crushing season in Guangxi, the cumulative sugar production was 6.465 million tons, an increase of 283,600 tons year - on - year. As of the end of May, the cumulative sugar sales were 4.6453 million tons, an increase of 537,100 tons year - on - year [3] Market Analysis - The Brazilian sugar production in the first half of May decreased year - on - year, but the sugar - making ratio rebounded. The production in India and Thailand in the new season is expected to increase, and the global sugar supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus. Domestically, the sugar sales and production data are good, but the long - term import pressure is increasing, and Zhengzhou sugar may follow the raw sugar to weaken [4][5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5394 yuan/ton, up 114 yuan/ton (+2.16%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6160 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5325 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The import wood pulp spot market price was generally stable, with some fluctuations [5] Market Analysis - The macro - level sentiment improved, boosting the pulp market. The Arauco long - term contract price has been continuously lowered, and the supply is expected to be loose. The domestic port inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak. The pulp price is difficult to rise in the short term [6]