Core Viewpoint - Shaanxi Black Cat continues to face significant financial losses, with projections indicating a net loss of 4.9 to 5.4 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of 4.456 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Shaanxi Black Cat reported an operating income of 25.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 37.31%, and a net profit loss of 2.616 billion yuan, down 23.21% year-on-year [1] - The company’s 2023 net profit was -5.12 billion yuan, and in 2024, revenue fell by 21.58%, with net losses expanding to 11.58 billion yuan, marking the largest annual loss since its listing [1][2] - The average prices for key products in Q2 2025 showed significant declines: coke at 1221.76 yuan/ton (down 27.72%), coal tar at 2926.33 yuan/ton (down 25.32%), and crude benzene at 4269.13 yuan/ton (down 34.82%) [1] Company Background - Established in 2003, Shaanxi Black Cat is primarily engaged in coal coking and chemical product production, with key products including coke, methanol, crude benzene, and coal tar [2] - The company went public in 2014 and was once a leading player in the coking industry, achieving revenues of 18.9 billion yuan and net profits exceeding 1.5 billion yuan in 2021 [4][5] Market Dynamics - The coking industry has been adversely affected by falling coke prices, reduced steel production capacity, and declining demand, leading to a significant drop in profitability [11] - As of early 2024, coke prices had fallen over 30% from their peak in 2021, with capacity utilization rates remaining low at 60-70% [11] Strategic Developments - Shaanxi Black Cat has been expanding its operations, including a major coal chemical project in Xinjiang with an investment of 39.6 billion yuan, but these projects have not yet been completed [6][7] - The company is shifting focus towards by-products, with a reported 24.05% of revenue coming from by-products in 2024, although this is insufficient to offset the decline in core business [8] Future Outlook - Recent trends indicate a potential recovery in coal prices, with futures prices for coke doubling from 709 to 1328 points [12] - However, concerns remain regarding the sustainability of this price increase, as the steel market is expected to face declining demand in 2025, which may further impact the coking coal market [13][14]

Core Insights - The coke sector experienced a slight increase of 0.16% on August 18, with Antai Group leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3728.03, up 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11835.57, up 1.73% [1] Stock Performance - Antai Group (600408) closed at 2.23, with a rise of 1.36% and a trading volume of 261,600 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 58.28 million yuan [1] - Yunwei Co. (600725) closed at 3.33, up 0.91%, with a trading volume of 210,900 shares and a transaction value of 70.38 million yuan [1] - Meijin Energy (000723) closed at 4.62, increasing by 0.65%, with a trading volume of 694,800 shares and a transaction value of 322 million yuan [1] - Baotailong (601011) remained unchanged at 2.74, with a trading volume of 321,400 shares and a transaction value of 88.28 million yuan [1] - Shaanxi Heimao (601015) also remained unchanged at 3.57, with a trading volume of 242,000 shares and a transaction value of 87.06 million yuan [1] - Yunmei Energy (600792) closed at 3.74, down 0.27%, with a trading volume of 192,400 shares and a transaction value of 72.01 million yuan [1] - Shanxi Coking (600740) closed at 3.97, decreasing by 1.00%, with a trading volume of 279,900 shares and a transaction value of 112 million yuan [1] Capital Flow - The coke sector saw a net outflow of 12.17 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 9.70 million yuan [1] - The detailed capital flow for individual stocks shows that Yunwei Co. had a net inflow of 5.54 million yuan from institutional investors, while Antai Group had a net inflow of 4.89 million yuan [2] - Meijin Energy experienced a significant net outflow of 19.24 million yuan from institutional investors, despite a net inflow of 10.45 million yuan from retail investors [2]

Group 1 - The company, Meijin Energy, is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategy and improve its international market competitiveness [1] - Meijin Energy's main business includes the production and sale of coal, coke, natural gas, chemical products, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, with a coal production capacity of 6.3 million tons per year [1] - The company reported a total operating revenue of 19.031 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 8.55% year-on-year, and a net loss of 1.143 billion yuan, indicating a shift from profit to loss [2] Group 2 - Meijin Energy has been transitioning towards hydrogen energy, establishing a complete industrial ecosystem for hydrogen production, storage, transportation, and application, with 3,591 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles promoted by the end of 2024 [2] - The company aims to enhance its hydrogen and fuel cell technology reserves through investments in advanced manufacturing and new energy industries, focusing on innovative opportunities in areas like autonomous driving and hydrogen storage technology [3] - The company plans to continue cost reduction and efficiency improvement in its traditional business while accelerating the commercialization of the hydrogen industry chain [3]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The black market continues to be weak with a double - top pattern in technical form. Steel production remains high, and demand seasonally declines in August, leading to inventory increases. There is an expectation of production restrictions in mid - to - late August, which is beneficial for alleviating the pressure on the peak season. Prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation, waiting for clear peak - season demand. Pay attention to the support levels of around 3400 yuan for hot - rolled coils and 3200 yuan for rebar [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3360 yuan/ton to 3320 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price dropped from 3331 yuan/ton to 3302 yuan/ton. The spot price of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased from 3470 yuan/ton to 3450 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price dropped from 3461 yuan/ton to 3433 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 3060 yuan/ton, and plate billet prices remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. Profits from hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, with East China's profit dropping by 44 yuan to 226 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 0.2 to 240.7, a 0.1% increase. The output of five major steel products increased by 2.4 to 871.6, a 0.3% increase. Rebar production decreased slightly by 0.7 to 220.5, a 0.3% decrease, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.7 to 315.6, a 0.2% increase [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 23.5 to 1375.4, a 1.7% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 10.4 to 556.7, a 1.9% increase, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 8.7 to 356.6, a 2.5% increase [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The daily average building materials trading volume decreased by 0.8 to 8.4, an 8.2% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 14.7 to 831.0, a 1.7% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 20.9 to 189.9, a 9.9% decrease, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 8.5 to 314.8, a 2.8% increase [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The 2601 - contract of iron ore showed a volatile downward trend. Global iron ore shipments and 45 - port arrivals decreased. On the demand side, steel mill profit margins are at a relatively high level, and pig iron output has slightly decreased from its high level. Port inventories have slightly increased, and the shipping volume has decreased. In the future, pig iron output in August will remain high, and steel mill profits will support raw materials. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see for single - side trading, and to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore for arbitrage [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased, such as the cost of Carajás fines dropping from 808.8 yuan/ton to 797.8 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 6.5 to - 38.0, a 20.6% decrease, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 5.5 to 16.0, a 52.4% increase [4]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: Spot prices at Rizhao Port for various iron ore types decreased. For example, the price of Carajás fines dropped from 888.0 yuan/ton to 878.0 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines decreased from 784.0 yuan/ton to 771.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrivals decreased by 125.9 to 2381.9, a 5.0% decrease, and the global shipments decreased by 15.1 to 3046.7, a 0.5% decrease. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8, an 8.0% increase [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 240.7, a 0.1% increase. The 45 - port daily average shipping volume increased by 19.1 to 321, a 6.3% increase. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 220.9 to 7190.5, a 3.0% decrease, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 336.1 to 8318.4, a 3.9% decrease [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 93.8 to 13806.08, a 0.7% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.3 to 9013.3, a 0.0% increase, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 1.0 to 21.0, a 5.0% increase [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Coke futures showed a peak - and - decline trend, and there was a sixth - round price increase in the spot market, with a possibility of further increases. Coking plant profits have improved, and production has slightly increased. Pig iron output is expected to slightly decline in August. There is an expectation of a seventh - round price increase, but previous positive expectations may be over - priced. For coking coal, the futures price has declined after reaching a peak, and the spot market is generally stable. Supply has decreased, and demand has slowed down. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see for speculation, and to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore for arbitrage [5]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of first - grade wet - quenched coke in Shanxi increased by 52 to 1347, a 3.9% increase, while the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port decreased by 20 to 1460, a 1.4% decrease. The 09 - contract price of coke decreased by 24 to 1660, a 1.4% decrease [5]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 1260, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) increased by 26 to 1191, a 2.2% increase. The 09 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 35 to 1066, a 3.14% decrease [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.4, a 0.4% increase, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 46.7, a 0.1% decrease. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 2.3 to 856.6, a 0.3% decrease, and the clean coal output increased by 0.4 to 439.4, a 0.1% increase [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4 to 240.7, a 0.2% decrease. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.4, a 0.4% increase, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 46.7, a 0.1% decrease [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased by 19.7 to 887.4, a 2.24% decrease. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 7.2 to 62.5, a 10.4% decrease, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9.5 to 609.8, a 1.5% decrease. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 0.2 to 111.9, a 0.1% decrease, and the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 11.0 to 976.9, a 1.1% decrease [5]. - **Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The calculated coke supply - demand gap decreased by 4.7 to - 4.3, a 9.4% decrease [5].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement highlights a change in the shareholding structure of Shanxi Meijin Energy Co., Ltd. due to the passing of its major shareholder, which has led to a redistribution of shares among the heirs, while the actual controlling shareholder remains unchanged [1][2]. Group 1: Shareholding Structure Change - The passing of Gao Fan'e, the major shareholder of Meijin Group, resulted in the inheritance of shares by her children, leading to a change in the shareholding proportions [1]. - Before the change, Yao Junliang held 25% of Meijin Group, while Yao Junhua, Yao Junjie, Yao Sanjun, Yao Sijun, and Yao Junqing each held 12.5%. After the change, Yao Junliang's share increased to 27%, Yao Junhua's to 15%, and the others to 14.5% each [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Meijin Energy is facing continued financial losses, with a forecasted net profit loss of between 490 million and 710 million yuan for the first half of 2025, primarily due to declining coal and coke prices [1][2]. - The company maintains a credit rating of A+ with a stable outlook, reflecting its current financial situation despite ongoing losses [2]. Group 3: Rating Assessment - The rating assessment utilized general credit rating methods and models, with various scoring factors indicating the company's performance in macro environment, industry risk, and financial status [3][4]. - The scoring results show a mixed performance, with a strong score in business conditions but weaker scores in profitability and financial status [3].

Group 1 - The coke sector experienced a 1.2% increase on August 15, with Baotailong leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3696.77, up 0.83%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11634.67, up 1.6% [1] - Key stocks in the coke sector showed varied performance, with Baotailong closing at 2.74, up 1.86%, and Meijin Energy at 4.59, up 1.77% [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of main funds in the coke sector was 483,900 yuan, while retail funds saw a net inflow of 820,350 yuan [1] - Baotailong had a main fund net inflow of 10,283,300 yuan, representing 12.73% of its total, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 180,000 yuan [2] - Meijin Energy experienced a significant main fund net outflow of 9,038,800 yuan, which is -4.16% of its total [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino - US second - round trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause as scheduled, and the policy tone of the Politburo meeting was basically the same as before. The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume, and the performance of heavy - weight stocks was strong. The improvement of corporate earnings needs to be verified by mid - report data [2]. - The stock - bond seesaw continues to put pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment of the bond market has not recovered [2]. - The fluctuation of gold prices increases due to macro news, but the upward trend remains. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and the short position of the 10 - contract should be held [2]. - Steel prices are supported by limited inventory in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. Some coal prices are loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation [2]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The short - term silver price is expected to continue to rise after range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The supply - demand situation of some energy and chemical products is complex. Some products are in a weak shock, and some have price support or improvement expectations [2]. - Some agricultural products are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and some have price trends affected by supply - demand factors [2]. - Some special and new energy products are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume. It is recommended to sell put options with an execution price of around 6400 for MO2509 when the price is high, and maintain a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The stock - bond seesaw puts pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment has not recovered. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are expected to rise, and a bullish spread portfolio can be constructed through gold call options. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations, and long positions can be held or a bullish spread strategy can be constructed [2]. Black - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices are supported, and iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of some coking coal is loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coke and short on iron ore [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper and Aluminum**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The supply - side benefits for aluminum are limited, and the price has a small increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure level [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and supply - demand expectations. Some products such as PX, PTA, and styrene are in a weak shock, and some products such as bottle chips have price support [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: The prices of some chemical products such as PVC, pure benzene, and synthetic rubber are affected by various factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Agricultural - **Grains and Oilseeds**: The prices of some agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and oils are affected by supply - demand factors. It is recommended to take corresponding trading strategies such as stopping profit on long positions and shorting on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The prices of some agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, and eggs are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Products**: The prices of some special products such as glass and rubber are affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended, such as holding short positions and waiting and seeing [2]. - **New Energy Products**: The prices of some new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2].

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600725 | 云维股份 | 3.28 | -2.38% | 18.74万 | 6222.54万 | | 000723 | 美锦能源 | 4.51 | -2.38% | 60.15万 | 2.73 Z | | 600740 | 山西焦化 | 3.98 | -2.45% | 24.36万 | 9781.14万 | | 600792 | 云煤能源 | 3.71 | -2.88% | 19.09万 | 7163.25万 | | 601011 | 宝泰隆 | 2.69 | -2.89% | 38.73万 | 1.05亿 | | 601015 | 陕西黑猫 | 3.55 | -3.53% | 32.12万 | 1.15亿 | | 600408 | 安泰集团 | 2.20 | -4.35% | 36.60万 | 8193.03万 | 证券之星消息，8月14日焦炭板块较上一交易日下跌2.73%，安泰集团领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3666.44，下跌0.46%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodities. It assesses market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on macroeconomic data, industry news, and inventory changes in each sector. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: On Wednesday, A - shares rose strongly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.62%. The semiconductor产业链 was hot, while high - dividend sectors such as banks and coal had a slight correction. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, and their basis further repaired [2][3]. - News: China counter - sanctioned two EU banks. The US July CPI was in line with expectations, and the market expected a Fed rate cut in September [3][4]. - Capital: A - share trading volume increased significantly, with a turnover of over 2.15 trillion. The central bank conducted 1185 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan [4]. - Operation suggestion: The basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are - 0.14%, 0.21%, - 0.87%, and - 0.89% respectively. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 with an exercise price near 6400 on rallies, with a moderately bullish outlook [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.10%, 0.02%, 0.05%, and 0.03% respectively. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted 1185 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan. The inter - bank market funds were in a comfortable state, and the liquidity might converge slightly in the short term [5][6]. - Fundamentals: China's M2, M1, and M0 balances increased year - on - year in July. The increase in social financing scale was 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, but entity credit decreased [6]. - Operation suggestion: The credit in July was weaker year - on - year, and the bond market sentiment stabilized. The 10 - year Treasury bond may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.75%. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, focusing on the tax - period funds and new bond issuance pricing [6]. Precious Metals - News: The US Treasury Secretary said that the US might increase sanctions on Russia. Some Fed officials had different views on interest rate cuts, and the market continued to digest the expectation of a September rate cut [7]. - Market: International gold prices rose slightly, closing at $3355.88 per ounce, up 0.23%. International silver prices rose 1.57% to $38.502 per ounce, hitting a three - week high [8]. - Outlook: The market sentiment was affected by trade agreements, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation increased. Technically, gold faced resistance at $3450. It is recommended to build a bullish spread portfolio through gold call options on price pullbacks. Silver may fluctuate in a range, and long positions can be held or a bullish spread strategy can be constructed with put options [8][10]. Shipping - Container Shipping Futures - Spot price: As of August 14, the spot prices of major shipping companies were provided [11]. - Index: As of August 11, the SCFIS European line index and the US West line index declined. The SCFI composite index also fell [11]. - Fundamentals: As of August 11, the global container capacity increased by 7.9% year - on - year. The eurozone and US manufacturing PMIs were provided [11]. - Logic: The futures price declined, and the main contract broke through the 1400 - point support. Due to high container growth and weak European demand, the price of the October contract may be lower than last year [12]. - Operation suggestion: It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and short positions in the 10 - contract can be held [12]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of August 13, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper and SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper increased. The willingness of holders to sell at low prices was low [13]. - Macro: Trump signed the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce for 90 days. The US July CPI data increased the probability of a September rate cut [13][14]. - Supply: The copper concentrate TC increased slightly. The domestic electrolytic copper production in July increased significantly, and it is expected to decline slightly in August [14][15]. - Demand: The weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rods decreased, while that of recycled copper rods increased. The domestic demand was resilient, and the power and new - energy sectors supported the demand [15]. - Inventory: COMEX and LME copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [16]. - Logic: The market expected a Fed rate cut in September, and the short - term tariff risk was released. The supply and demand were weak during the off - season, and the price was expected to fluctuate in a range [17]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 78000 - 80000 [17]. Alumina - Spot: On August 13, the spot prices of alumina in different regions remained unchanged [17]. - Supply: The domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production in July increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in August [18]. - Inventory: The alumina port inventory and warehouse receipts increased [18]. - Logic: The supply - side concerns had limited impact, and the market was slightly oversupplied. The price may fluctuate between 3000 - 3400. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract may run between 3000 - 3400. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short on rallies in the medium term [19]. Aluminum - Spot: On August 13, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum increased, and the premium decreased [19]. - Supply: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production in July increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio decreased [20][21]. - Demand: The downstream was in the off - season, and the operating rates of aluminum profiles, aluminum foil, etc. were generally low [21]. - Inventory: The domestic and LME aluminum inventories increased [21]. - Logic: The market increased the bet on a Fed rate cut in September, and the aluminum price rose slightly. The supply was stable, the demand was weak, and the price may be under pressure in the short term, running between 20000 - 21000 [22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 20000 - 21000, paying attention to the resistance at 21000 [22]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On August 13, the average price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased [22]. - Supply: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in June increased, but it is expected to decline in July due to the off - season and cost factors [23]. - Demand: The demand in July was under pressure, and the trading activity decreased. The inventory increased [23]. - Logic: The price followed the aluminum price and fluctuated strongly. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the demand was weak. The price may fluctuate between 19200 - 20200 [24]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 19400 - 20400 [24]. Zinc - Spot: On August 13, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots increased, and the downstream was reluctant to buy at high prices [24]. - Supply: The zinc ore TC remained stable. The domestic refined zinc production in July increased significantly, and it is expected to increase further from January to August [26]. - Demand: The spot premium of zinc decreased. The operating rates of primary processing industries were at a seasonal low, and the downstream procurement was weak [27]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased, while the LME inventory decreased [28]. - Logic: The supply was loose, and the demand was weak. The zinc price may fluctuate between 22000 - 23000 [28]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 22000 - 23000 [28]. Tin - Spot: On August 13, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the downstream was reluctant to replenish inventory [29]. - Supply: The domestic tin ore imports in June were at a low level, and the actual output from Myanmar may be postponed to the fourth quarter [31]. - Demand: The operating rate of the soldering tin industry declined, and the demand was expected to be weak [30][31]. - Inventory: The LME inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts increased slightly, while the social inventory decreased slightly [30]. - Logic: The rate - cut expectation drove the tin price up. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the Myanmar tin ore imports [31][32]. - Operation suggestion: Wait and see [32]. Nickel - Spot: As of August 13, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel increased [32]. - Supply: The refined nickel production in July was at a high level and is expected to increase slightly [32]. - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloys was stable, while the demand for stainless steel and high - priced nickel sulfate was weak [32]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory remained high, the domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the bonded - area inventory decreased [33]. - Logic: The market sentiment was stable, and the price may fluctuate between 120000 - 126000. The medium - term supply was loose, restricting the upside [34]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 120000 - 126000 [34][35]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of August 13, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged [35]. - Raw materials: The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel - iron price was strong, and the chrome - iron price was weak [35][37]. - Supply: The estimated stainless - steel production in August increased month - on - month [36]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the futures inventory increased slightly [36]. - Logic: The price decreased slightly, the cost was supportive, but the demand was weak. The price may fluctuate between 13000 - 13500 [37]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 13000 - 13500 [37]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of August 13, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased. The upstream was bullish [37]. - Supply: The lithium carbonate production in July increased, and the production in August is expected to increase [38]. - Demand: The demand was optimistic, and the cell orders were okay [38]. - Inventory: The overall inventory increased, the upstream inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory increased [39]. - Logic: The futures price fluctuated widely. The fundamentals were in a tight balance, and the price may fluctuate around 85,000. It is recommended to wait and see and go long on dips [40]. - Operation suggestion: Wait and see cautiously and go long lightly on dips [41]. Ferrous Metals Steel - Spot: The steel futures price decreased, and the basis strengthened. The prices of billets, rebar, and hot - rolled coils decreased [42]. - Cost and profit: The cost increased, but the steel price also rose, and the steel mill profit increased. The profit order was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [42]. - Supply: The iron - element production from January to July increased year - on - year. The current iron - water production was stable, and the scrap - steel consumption increased. The rebar production increased, while the hot - rolled coil production decreased [42]. - Demand: The apparent demand for the five major steel products from January to July was basically flat year - on - year. The current apparent demand decreased [43]. - Inventory: The inventory increased for two consecutive weeks, mainly due to the increase in trader inventory [43]. - Viewpoint: The steel price was supported by the small increase in steel mill inventory. The 10 - contract price may fluctuate at high levels. It is recommended to go long on dips, paying attention to the support levels of 3400 for hot - rolled coil and 3200 for rebar [44]. Iron Ore - Spot: As of August 13, the prices of mainstream iron - ore powders decreased slightly [45]. - Futures: The near - month 2509 contract increased, and the main 2601 contract remained unchanged [45]. - Basis: The basis of different iron - ore varieties was provided [45]. - Demand: The daily average iron - water production decreased slightly, the blast - furnace operating rate increased slightly, and the steel mill profitability increased [45]. - Supply: The global iron - ore shipment and port arrival decreased this week [46]. - Inventory: The port inventory increased slightly, the daily average port clearance increased, and the steel mill inventory increased [46]. - Viewpoint: The 09 contract fluctuated. The iron - ore price may follow the steel price. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see [46]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: The coking - coal futures price decreased, and the spot price of some coal varieties was loose, while the Mongolian coal price was stable [47][49]. - Supply: The coal - mine operating rate decreased, and the production and inventory decreased [47][48]. - Demand: The coking and blast - furnace operating rates were stable, and the iron - water production decreased slightly [48]. - Inventory: The overall coking - coal inventory was at a medium level, with the coal - mine inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing [48]. - Viewpoint: The coking - coal market was stable. There was an expectation of coal - mine production restriction in August. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see [49][50]. Coke - Futures and spot: The coke futures price decreased, and the sixth - round price increase was implemented. The port price followed the increase [51][52]. - Supply: The coke production was stable, and the coal - mine复产 was less than expected [51][52]. - Demand: The iron - water production decreased slightly, and the downstream demand was supportive [52]. - Inventory: The coking - plant inventory decreased, the port inventory increased slightly, and the steel - mill inventory decreased [52]. - Viewpoint: The coke market was in short supply, but the previous bullish expectations were over - exhausted. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see [52]. Agricultural Products Meal - Spot: On August 13, the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices increased. The soybean meal trading volume decreased, and the rapeseed meal trading volume was zero [53][54]. - Fundamentals: The USDA's August supply - demand report showed a decrease in US soybean planting area and ending stocks. The Brazilian soybean and soybean meal exports in August were expected to increase, while the EU soybean imports from July to August 10 decreased [54][55]. - Outlook: The Ministry of Commerce imposed a 75.8% margin on Canadian rapeseed imports. The US soybean price rose, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory increased. It is recommended to hold the previous 01 long positions [55]. Live Pigs - Spot: The live - pig spot price was stable, and the downstream procurement was smooth. The breeding end was reluctant to sell at low prices [56]. - Data: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising sows decreased, and the inventory of breeding sows increased slightly [56]. - Outlook: The current supply and demand were weak. The long - term 01 contract was affected by policies. It is not recommended to short blindly, but also pay attention to the impact of hedging funds [57]. Corn - Spot: On August 13, the corn prices in Northeast China decreased slightly, and the prices in North China were stable. The port prices were stable or increased slightly [58]. - Fundamentals: The corn inventory in the four northern ports decreased, and the inventory in the Guangdong port also decreased [59]. - Outlook: The corn futures price rebounded due to market sentiment, but the overall sentiment was weak. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. In the long term, pay attention to the new - season corn growth [59].

Report Date - The report is dated August 13, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On August 13, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,245.0, down 3.00%. The sentiment declined, and anti - involution varieties saw a correction. The overall mine - end inventory decreased, and clean coal inventory transferred from upstream mines and coal washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for three consecutive months, and the total inventory has increased for four consecutive weeks. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. Considering the price reaching the previous high, it should be treated as a volatile operation [2] - On August 13, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,737.0, down 2.83%. The fifth round of price increase was implemented on the spot side. Market sentiment was volatile. The raw - material inventory increased. The current hot - metal output was 2.4223 million tons, a decrease of 39,000 tons. The hot - metal output was at a high level, and the coal - mine inventory was no longer under pressure, with inventory transferring downstream. The total coking - coal inventory increased for four consecutive weeks. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 16 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. Considering the price reaching the previous high, it should be treated as a volatile operation [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - JM main - contract closing price was 1,245.00 yuan/ton, down 68.00 yuan; J main - contract closing price was 1,737.00 yuan/ton, down 75.00 yuan [2] - JM futures - contract holding volume was 920,978.00 lots, down 56,561.00 lots; J futures - contract holding volume was 54,194.00 lots, down 227.00 lots [2] - Net holding volume of the top 20 coking - coal contracts was - 115,590.00 lots, down 32,614.00 lots; net holding volume of the top 20 coke contracts was - 6,516.00 lots, down 12.00 lots [2] - JM January - September contract spread was 144.50 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan; J January - September contract spread was 77.50 yuan/ton, down 4.50 yuan [2] - Coking - coal warehouse receipts were 800.00 sheets, unchanged; coke warehouse receipts were 800.00 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 1,011.00 yuan/ton, up 25.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of Russian main - coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 147.00 US dollars/wet ton, up 2.00 US dollars; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of Australian imported main - coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi - produced main - coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of medium - sulfur main - coking coal in Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1,320.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1,100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - JM main - contract basis was 75.00 yuan/ton, up 68.00 yuan; J main - contract basis was - 72.00 yuan/ton, up 75.00 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The clean - coal output of 314 independent coal - washing plants was 26.40 million tons, up 0.40 million tons; the clean - coal inventory of 314 independent coal - washing plants was 297.00 million tons, up 8.90 million tons [2] - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal - washing plants was 0.37%, unchanged; the raw - coal output was 42,107.40 million tons, up 1,779.00 million tons [2] - The import volume of coal and lignite was 3,560.90 million tons, up 256.90 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 188.30 million tons, down 5.30 million tons [2] - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 463.05 million tons, down 30.89 million tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 273.55 million tons, up 2.65 million tons [2] - The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises in the full sample was 987.92 million tons, down 4.81 million tons; the inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises in the full sample was 69.73 million tons, down 3.89 million tons [2] - The inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 808.66 million tons, up 4.87 million tons; the inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 619.28 million tons, down 7.41 million tons [2] - The available days of coking coal of independent coking enterprises in the full sample were 12.99 days, up 0.12 days; the available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills were 10.91 days, down 0.26 days [2] Industry Situation - The import volume of coking coal was 910.84 million tons, up 172.10 million tons; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 51.00 million tons, down 17.00 million tons [2] - The output of coking coal was 4,064.38 million tons, down 5.89 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 74.03%, up 0.34% [2] - The profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was - 16.00 yuan/ton, up 29.00 yuan/ton; the output of coke was 4,170.30 million tons, down 67.30 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 83.77%, up 0.29%; the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.07%, down 0.15% [2] - The crude - steel output was 8,318.40 million tons, down 336.10 million tons [2] Industry News - A coking enterprise in Shandong plans to limit production from August 16 - 25 by 30%, from August 26 - September 3 by 50%, and resume normal production at 0:00 on September 4, with an estimated cumulative impact on coke output of about 4.1 million tons. The current operation rate of this coking enterprise is 90% [2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.60%, the lowest level since April 2023, in line with market expectations [2] - The Lithium Industry Branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association issued an initiative to resist disorderly competition, market monopoly, false publicity, etc., and to reasonably arrange new production capacity [2] - China Evergrande announced that it will cancel its listing status on August 25, 2025 [2] - Guizhou Province issued measures to strengthen coal (mine) warehouse management, aiming to reduce the number of coal (mine) warehouses [2]