Core Viewpoint - Xinxiang Chemical Fiber reached its daily limit before retreating, currently up over 8%, with other companies such as Baolidi, Youcai Resources, Huafeng Chemical, Huilong New Materials, and Tongyi also experiencing gains [1] Group 1 - Xinxiang Chemical Fiber's stock performance indicates strong market interest, as it initially hit the daily limit before a slight pullback [1] - The increase of over 8% suggests positive investor sentiment and potential growth prospects for Xinxiang Chemical Fiber [1] - The rise in stock prices of related companies indicates a broader positive trend within the chemical fiber industry [1]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，化纤板块午后异动，新乡化纤触及涨停后回落，现涨超8%，宝丽迪、优彩资源、华峰化 学、汇隆新材、同益中跟涨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX and PTA are in a downward oscillation phase, with their future price centers expected to decline. The demand data during the peak season is mediocre, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is significant. The overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and factors such as tariffs may affect medium - and long - term terminal consumption exports [2]. - The polyester chain is expected to maintain a weak oscillation due to large long - term supply pressure. The current valuation of polyester is low, but there is inventory accumulation during the peak season, and the long - term supply pressure is high. Unilateral strategies are difficult to implement [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Overview and Strategy - **Supply Side**: Three TA devices were put into production this year, and one more is waiting at the end of the year. The upstream supply has large long - term pressure. In the fourth quarter, there are few planned maintenance schedules [8]. - **Demand Side**: Polyester demand data during the peak season is mediocre. The load recovery is slow, with only about 90% currently. Inventory has accumulated to a high level, and terminal orders have not recovered well [8]. - **Valuation**: PX is around 200 US dollars per ton, and the spot processing fee of TA is around 180 yuan per ton. The industry chain valuation is at a low level, and the supply - demand balance has shifted to an inventory accumulation cycle [8]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the 01 contract to reach a low level and then focus on the long - position opportunity of the 05 contract next year. For arbitrage, pay attention to the PX1 - 5 reverse arbitrage opportunity when liquidity increases [8]. 2. Market Review - The PTA market in the third quarter followed the cost of crude oil, oscillating at a high level and then declining. Due to over - capacity pressure, high polyester inventory, and concerns about the impact of pre - peak exports, the price continued to be compressed during the peak season, and the valuation continued to weaken [9]. 3. Production Capacity Situation - **PTA**: In 2025, there are many PTA device production plans, with over 10 million tons expected to be put into production throughout the year. The production capacity is expected to continue to grow steadily in the future, and the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change [23]. - **Polyester**: In 2024, the new polyester production capacity was about 4.5 million tons, with a growth rate of about 5.5%. In 2025, the planned production is the lowest in recent years, with only 2.05 million tons of production capacity put into operation so far, and the expected annual new production capacity growth rate is about 5% [26]. 4. PX Supply Side - **Production**: The cumulative PX production in the first three quarters was about 28 million tons, almost the same as the previous period. The supply is relatively balanced, and there is no severe over - capacity situation like PTA [32]. - **Domestic Device Load**: The average PX load in the third quarter was about 80%, a decrease of about 4 percentage points compared to the previous period [34]. - **Korean Device Load**: The load of Korean devices in the third quarter was not high. Although the logistics volume to the US was almost zero, the import from Korea was normal, and the aromatics import is expected to increase slightly in the future [34]. 5. PTA Supply Side - **Production**: From January to August, the total PTA production was about 48.5 million tons, an increase of 1.7 million tons compared to the previous year. The short - term supply - demand situation is still acceptable [79]. - **Load**: The average daily effective load of PTA in the third quarter was about 77%, a decrease of 7 percentage points compared to the previous period. Thanks to the new device production, the supply output increased instead [79]. - **Export**: From January to August, the total PTA export was 2.53 million tons, a decrease of about 500,000 tons compared to the previous year [87]. 6. Polyester Supply Side - **Production**: From January to August, the total polyester production was about 52.5 million tons, an increase of about 4 million tons compared to the previous year. New devices have been put into production, and the load performance in the off - season was relatively good [91]. - **Benefit and Inventory**: The benefits of various polyester products are poor. The overall polyester inventory accumulation exceeds expectations, and most of the inventory is accumulated in polyester factories, with terminal inventory also reaching a high level this year [92]. - **Export**: From January to August, China's polyester export was about 9.6 million tons, an increase of 1.25 million tons compared to the previous year, with a growth rate of over 15%. The increase was mainly in bottle chips [99]. 7. Terminal Weaving - **Weaving Start - up**: The terminal start - up data is mediocre. After the holiday, the load only reached the historical median level. The actual situation is poor, and the order situation is average [118]. - **Terminal Raw Material Stockpiling**: The terminal raw material and finished product stockpiles have reached a high level this year, which is one of the reasons for the high polyester inventory. The future situation is not optimistic [119]. 8. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **PX Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows data such as production, import, apparent consumption, and inventory changes from January to December, along with their year - on - year growth rates [148]. - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It includes data on apparent consumption, production, export, polyester consumption of PX, and inventory changes, as well as their year - on - year growth rates. It also provides production and import - export projections [148]. 9. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis reflects the strength of the spot market relative to the futures market. When the basis is negative, the spot market is weak [150]. - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The spread sometimes provides arbitrage opportunities and can avoid unilateral risks [150]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: Open interest can reflect the ratio of real to virtual positions and may affect delivery. Trading volume reflects the activity of the main contract [150].

Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. has shown mixed financial performance with a decrease in revenue but an increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating potential resilience in profitability despite revenue challenges [2]. Financing and Trading Activity - On September 29, 2023, Tongkun's stock price increased by 0.13% with a trading volume of 467 million yuan. The financing buy-in amount was 26.94 million yuan, while the financing repayment was 52 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 25.06 million yuan. The total financing and securities balance reached 1.92 billion yuan [1]. - The current financing balance of 1.91 billion yuan represents 5.32% of the circulating market value, which is below the 10% percentile level over the past year, indicating a low financing level [1]. - On the same day, the company repaid 48,600 shares in securities lending, with no shares sold, resulting in a securities lending balance of 1.24 million yuan, which is above the 90% percentile level over the past year, indicating a high level of securities lending [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Tongkun reported operating revenue of 44.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.41%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.93% to 1.10 billion yuan [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Tongkun has distributed a total of 3.20 billion yuan in dividends, with 341 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Tongkun was 70,600, a decrease of 0.22% from the previous period. The average circulating shares per person increased by 0.22% to 33,944 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the seventh largest with 26.46 million shares, a decrease of 7.38 million shares from the previous period. Southern CSI 500 ETF is the eighth largest with 24.99 million shares, an increase of 3.48 million shares, while HSBC Jintrust New Power Mixed A is the ninth largest with 22.89 million shares, marking a new entry [3].

Core Viewpoint - The PTA market is facing increasing supply-demand contradictions, leading to a compression of product profitability, with many companies experiencing losses. There is a strong demand for improvement in industry profitability, and recent discussions among major PTA companies regarding joint production cuts may help optimize the supply-demand structure [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - PTA capacity in China has rapidly expanded from 46.69 million tons in 2019 to an expected 91.35 million tons by August 2025, with a CAGR of 12.5%. The operating rate has declined to 78% in August 2025, down 12 percentage points from 90% in 2019, indicating a historical low [1]. - The price difference for PTA has narrowed to within 200 yuan/ton as of August 2025, resulting in most companies operating at a loss, highlighting the urgent need for profitability improvement [1]. Group 2: Industry Structure - The PTA industry is highly concentrated, with six companies controlling approximately 75% of the market share. This concentration facilitates a self-regulatory mechanism to avoid disorderly competition, and recent discussions among major companies about joint production cuts may enhance industry collaboration [2]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Domestic PTA technology has undergone four iterations, leading to larger production units that significantly improve investment costs, energy efficiency, and raw material consumption. New low-cost facilities are expected to push older, smaller, and higher-cost capacities out of the market [3]. - Currently, about 40% of domestic PTA capacity utilizes older technologies (P7 and below), indicating substantial room for structural optimization [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The expansion of PTA capacity is nearing its end, with only one additional facility expected to come online in October 2025. The pace of new capacity additions is projected to slow significantly, with a CAGR of only 2.8% over the next three years [4]. - With the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, potential industry collaboration, and accelerated technological upgrades, the PTA market is expected to enter a new cycle of prosperity as domestic and international textile and apparel demand stabilizes [4]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Hengyi Petrochemical (000703.SZ), Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233.SH), Xin Feng Ming Group (603225.SH), Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH), Dongfang Shenghong (000301.SZ), and Sanfangxiang (600370.SH) [5].

每经AI快讯，泰和新材（SZ 002254，收盘价：9.75元）9月29日晚间发布公告称，公司收到公司控股股 东烟台国丰投资控股集团有限公司《关于提名董事人选的函》，提名顾丽萍女士担任公司董事候选人， 不再推荐齐贵山先生为董事候选人。 截至发稿，泰和新材市值为84亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——农夫大战怡宝，抢到更多蛋糕的却是宗馥莉！农夫绿瓶上市后，怡宝上 演"滑铁卢"：市占率大跌近5个百分点 （记者 王晓波） 公司第十一届董事会第十八次会议审议通过《关于更换选举董事的议案》，提名顾丽萍女士为公司第十 一届董事会董事候选人。顾丽萍女士现任公司监事，待公司监事会取消、其监事职务相应免除后，经股 东大会选举就任新职务，任期自股东大会审议通过之日起至第十一届董事会任期届满之日止。新任董事 经股东大会选举就任后，齐贵山先生将不再担任公司董事及战略委员会委员职务，战略委员会委员职务 由新任董事接任。 2025年1至6月份，泰和新材的营业收入构成为：化纤行业占比99.18%，其他行业占比0.82%。 ...

Group 1 - The event "Olympic Athletes Public Service Action" in Jilin promotes the integration of sports spirit with industry and healthy living through carbon fiber products [1][3] - Jilin City, known as "Chemical City," leverages its significant carbon fiber raw silk production capacity to innovate applications in sports and leisure [3] - The athletes highlighted the advantages of carbon fiber in enhancing performance due to its lightweight and rigidity, applicable in bicycles and sports equipment [3] Group 2 - The event featured interactive games that engaged employees, promoting participation in sports and sharing of athletic skills [3] - The initiative is part of the Chinese Olympic Committee's broader strategy to merge Olympic spirit with corporate culture and promote public health [3][4] - Future plans include continued efforts to bring Olympic athletes into grassroots and corporate settings to support the "Healthy China" and "Sports Power" strategies [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The cost side is under pressure, while the fundamentals of polyester staple fiber are fair. Upstream TA and EG are expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, putting pressure on prices. PX has a loose fundamental situation, and with crude oil under pressure, PX prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. PTA has a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, and if the planned TA maintenance in the fourth quarter is implemented as scheduled, it will bring some improvement to the fundamentals. Ethylene glycol has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with a loose fundamental pattern and expected inventory accumulation in the future, so its price is expected to be under pressure. [73] - On the supply side, the operating load of polyester staple fiber is at a historical high. From January to September 2025, the average operating load of polyester staple fiber was 89.29%, a 7.58 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year. In terms of device changes, a 200,000 - ton staple fiber device of the former Jingwei resumed production in April, and a 100,000 - ton (including 20,000 - ton staple fiber) device of Xinhongxiang (formerly Xinghong) resumed production in May. It is expected that although there will be no new device put into operation for direct - spinning polyester staple fiber by the end of 2025, the effective production capacity will increase. As of September 26, the inventory of polyester staple fiber was 9.3 days, a decrease of 3.5 days compared to June 27. [73] - On the demand side, there is a pattern of a non - prosperous peak season. As of September 26, the operating rate of polyester yarn was 64.2%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points compared to June 27; the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 70%, a month - on - month increase of 4 percentage points. From January to August 2025, the cumulative yarn production in China was 12.194 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. The cumulative cloth production was 1.6418 billion meters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. As of August 2025, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.58 days, a decrease of 0.65 days compared to the end of the second quarter. The grey cloth inventory was 33.87 days, a decrease of 2.74 days compared to the end of the second quarter. In the off - season of the fourth quarter, the finished - product inventory of textile enterprises is expected to increase. [73] - Overall, compared with other polyester products, the fundamentals of staple fiber are relatively better. The supply operating rate is at a high level, the finished - product inventory is being depleted, and downstream has the ability to digest staple fiber. The performance in October may be similar to that in September. With upstream prices under pressure, it will benefit the profit repair of downstream staple fiber. If the demand for staple fiber exceeds expectations, the price elasticity of staple fiber will be relatively large. [73] Summary by Directory 1. Polyester Staple Fiber Price: Fluctuating with Crude Oil Prices - From June 30 to September 24, 2025, the PF main contract closing price decreased from 6,542 yuan/ton to 6,296 yuan/ton, a decrease of 246 yuan/ton or 3.8%. The 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6,805 yuan/ton to 6,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 345 yuan/ton or 5.1%. The basis decreased from 263 yuan/ton to 164 yuan/ton, a decrease of 99 yuan/ton or 37.6%. [4] - Regarding the price difference of polyester staple fiber, from June 30 to September 24, 2025, the PF01 - PF05 price difference changed from 22 yuan/ton to - 68 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton or 409.1%. The PF05 - PF09 price difference changed from - 82 yuan/ton to - 62 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton or - 24.4%. The PF09 - PF01 price difference changed from 60 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton or 116.7%. [9] - For raw material prices, from June 30 to September 25, 2025, the PTA closing price decreased from 4,798 yuan/ton to 4,678 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton or 2.5%. The MEG closing price decreased from 4,267 yuan/ton to 4,246 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton or 0.5%. The PX closing price decreased from 6,796 yuan/ton to 6,674 yuan/ton, a decrease of 122 yuan/ton or 1.8%. [12] 2. Polyester Staple Fiber Cost Side: Pay Attention to the New Device Commissioning - For PTA, from January to September 2025, the average operating load of domestic PTA was 77.54%, a 1.84 - percentage - point decrease compared to the same period last year. The average processing fee was 241 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the same period last year. In the third quarter, Sanfangxiang's 3.2 - million - ton new production capacity was put into operation, and two 1.2 - million - ton old production lines were shut down. In the fourth quarter, Dushan Energy's No. 4 3 - million - ton production capacity is planned to be put into operation. From January to August 2025, the PTA production was 48.45 million tons, an increase of 1.61 million tons or 3.4% compared to the same period last year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative PTA export volume was 2.5302 million tons, a decrease of 0.5133 million tons or 16.86% compared to the same period last year. [15][19] - For ethylene glycol, from January to August 2025, the average operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 69.71%, a 5.24 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year. The average operating load of coal - based ethylene glycol was 70.18%, a 7.32 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year. From January to August 2025, the domestic ethylene glycol production was 13.398 million tons, an increase of 0.97 million tons or 7.8% compared to the same period last year. The production of the syngas oxalic acid hydrogenation catalytic process was 4.919 million tons, an increase of 0.5795 million tons or 13.4% compared to the same period last year. The production increase of non - syngas - based devices was 0.3905 million tons, an increase of 4.8% compared to the same period last year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative ethylene glycol import volume was 5.0284 million tons, a 16% increase compared to the same period last year. As of September 22, the ethylene glycol port inventory in the East China main port area was about 467,000 tons, a decrease of 78,000 tons compared to June 30. [22][25] 3. Polyester Staple Fiber Supply Side: Sustained High - Level Operation - From January to September 2025, the average operating load of polyester staple fiber was 89.29%, a 7.58 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year. Some devices resumed production this year, and it is expected that although there will be no new device put into operation for direct - spinning polyester staple fiber by the end of 2025, the effective production capacity will increase. [73] - As of September 26, the inventory of polyester staple fiber was 9.3 days, a decrease of 3.5 days compared to June 27. [34][73] 4. Polyester Staple Fiber Demand Side: Slow Order Recovery - As of September 26, the operating rate of polyester yarn was 64.2%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points compared to June 27; the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 70%, a month - on - month increase of 4 percentage points. [38][73] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative yarn production in China was 12.194 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. The cumulative cloth production was 1.6418 billion meters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. [43][73] - As of August 2025, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.58 days, a decrease of 0.65 days compared to the end of the second quarter. The grey cloth inventory was 33.87 days, a decrease of 2.74 days compared to the end of the second quarter. In the off - season of the fourth quarter, the finished - product inventory of textile enterprises is expected to increase. [46][73] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume of uncombed polyester staple fiber (primary + recycled) in China was 1.0964 million tons, an increase of 0.2499 million tons or 29.52% compared to the same period last year. [49] 5. Polyester Staple Fiber Terminal Demand: Expected Contraction of Terminal Demand - From January to August 2025, the cumulative export value of textile and clothing was 197.27 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.2%. Among them, the export value of textiles was 94.51 billion US dollars, an increase of 1.6%, and the export value of clothing was 102.76 billion US dollars, a decrease of 1.7%. [53] - From January to August 2025, the retail sales of consumer goods of above - quota units in the city were 8.967 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 6.874 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.3%. From January to August, the online retail sales of physical goods were 8.0964 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.4%, 0.1 percentage points faster than that from January to July and 1.8 percentage points faster than the same - period total retail sales of social consumer goods, accounting for 25.0% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods. From January to August, among the online retail sales of physical goods, the sales of food, clothing, and daily - use goods increased by 15.0%, 2.4%, and 5.7% respectively. From January to August 2025, the clothing retail sales reached 940 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%, 1.7 percentage points weaker than the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods. [59] 6. Polyester Staple Fiber Positioning Situation - As of September 24, 2025, the positions of PF2601, PF2605, and PF2509 were 30,803 lots, 244 lots, and 3 lots respectively. Compared with June 30, 2025, the positions of PF2601 and PF2605 increased by 29,031 lots and 230 lots respectively, while the position of PF2509 decreased by 70,497 lots. [65] - There are also relevant analyses of the historical volatility and option volume and position put - call ratios of polyester staple fiber options. [66][72]

Core Viewpoint - The price of polyester short fibers in East China experienced a decline followed by a slight increase, with an average price of 6409 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton or -0.82% from the previous week [1] Price Trends - The average price for the week was 6409 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 53 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [1] - The price trend showed a pattern of first declining and then rising during the week [1] Inventory Levels - As of September 25, the physical inventory of polyester short fibers in China was 13.45 days, a decrease of 0.8 days from the previous period [1] Sales Performance - As of September 25, the sales performance in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions showed an increase, with average sales estimated at 180-190% by 3:30 PM [1] - Direct-spun polyester short fiber sales improved, with an average sales rate of 78% by 3:00 PM [1] Market Outlook - New Century Futures indicated that the inventory levels of polyester short fibers are not high, and some intermediaries are in a state of overselling; however, cost support may weaken, making further price increases difficult [1] - Southwest Futures noted that short-term supply of short fibers remains high, with demand showing a month-on-month improvement, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [1] - The market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations, with a focus on downstream stocking progress ahead of the upcoming holidays [1]

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced slight increases during the week from September 22 to September 26, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3828.11 points, a weekly increase of 0.21%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 13209.00 points, up 1.06%, and the ChiNext Index at 3151.53 points, up 1.96% [1] Trading Volume and Activity - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 6759.59 billion shares, a decrease of approximately 15.25% from the previous week. The total trading value was 114606.56 billion yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 22921.41 billion yuan, down about 7.98% from the previous week [2][3] Stock Performance - A total of 1649 stocks rose, while 3729 stocks fell, and 57 stocks remained flat during the week [3] - The top ten stocks with the largest gains included Jianfa Zhixin, Jinhua New Materials, Haocreat Technology, and others, with Jianfa Zhixin seeing a five-day increase of 325.53% [4][5] - Conversely, the ten stocks with the largest declines included Borui Pharmaceutical and Xiangjiang Holdings, with Borui Pharmaceutical experiencing a five-day decrease of 38.36% [6] Market Sentiment and Predictions - Recent market trends indicate a clear divergence between large-cap and small-cap stocks, with large-cap stocks frequently reaching new highs. For instance, Huagong Technology achieved 18 new highs in the last 30 trading days, with a total market value of 927.1 billion yuan [7] - The upcoming week is expected to be influenced by the National Day holiday, with only two trading days remaining. Market sentiment appears to be cooling, as indicated by trading volumes [7][8] Institutional Insights - Financial institutions have noted that ahead of the holiday, some funds may seek to reduce positions to avoid uncertainty, leading to a potential decrease in market risk appetite. The market is expected to remain volatile, with a focus on sectors such as chemical fibers, aerospace, automotive, and wind power equipment for investment opportunities [9][10] IPO Developments - A significant event occurred with the successful IPO application of Moer Thread Technology, known as the "domestic Nvidia," which passed the review by the Shanghai Stock Exchange. This reflects strong policy support for key sectors such as semiconductors and AI computing [11][12] Upcoming Events - Key upcoming events include the start of the National Day holiday transportation on September 29 and the release of the official manufacturing PMI by the National Bureau of Statistics on September 30, which could indicate economic recovery if it rises above the neutral level of 50 [13][14][15]