Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on October 20, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block was 5130 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 50 yuan; the latest price of Inner Mongolia 72 was 5180 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 20 yuan; the latest price of Shaanxi 75 was 5800 yuan, with a daily and weekly decrease of 300 yuan. The export price of Tianjin 72 was 1060 US dollars, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 35 US dollars [2]. - For silicon manganese, on October 20, 2025, the factory - ex price of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5680 yuan, with no daily and weekly change; the factory - ex price of Ningxia 6517 was 5600 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 20 yuan [2]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy production enterprises in China (monthly and weekly) and their capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi (monthly) are provided from 2021 - 2025. Also, the production data of silicon manganese in China (weekly) from 2021 - 2025 are presented [4][6]. Demand - The demand - related data include the estimated and actual production of crude steel in China (monthly), the demand for silicon manganese in China (in ten thousand tons, according to Steel Union's caliber), and the procurement volume and price of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group (monthly) from 2021 - 2025 [4][6][7]. Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, the inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China (weekly), and their inventory in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi (weekly) from 2021 - 2025 are provided. Also, the warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and the sum of them (daily) are presented, as well as the average available inventory days in different regions (monthly) [5]. - For silicon manganese, the warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and the sum of them (daily), the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China (weekly, in tons), and the average available inventory days in China (monthly) from 2021 - 2025 are provided [7]. Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, the electricity prices in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi (daily), the market price of blue carbon small materials in Shaanxi (daily), the production cost and profit in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia (in yuan/ton) from 2021 - 2025 are provided [5]. - For silicon manganese, the profit data in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions (in yuan/ton, according to Steel Union's caliber) from 2021 - 2025 are provided [7].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 锰硅周报10.13-10.17 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每周观点 本周观点： 从成本端来看，焦炭市场暂稳、锰矿市场偏弱暂稳。北方市场成本支撑力度弱于南方市场。 从供应端来看，北方地 区硅锰工厂生产节奏基本稳定，另外，据了解北方地区后期有增产的预期。南方市场来看，广西、贵州两地硅锰工厂 开工率长期维持低位，短期暂无明显变动；而云南地区受丰水期结束影响，电价即将上涨，硅锰生产总成本将显著抬 升。目前已有云南工厂明确表示将在电价调整后启动减产，预计后续云南地区硅锰开工率将逐步下降 从需求端来 看，河钢集团10月硅锰二轮询价5800元/吨，比较首轮询价5750元/吨上调50元，对比看，9月硅锰定价：6000元/吨。 市场观望河钢的最终定价。 总体来看，供需基本面无较大变动，十月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the futures trends of various black - series commodities, indicating that iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, silicon iron, manganese silicon, coke, and coking coal will experience wide - range fluctuations; logs will fluctuate repeatedly. The cost provides bottom support for silicon iron and manganese silicon, while the expectations for coke and coking coal are volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][4] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 771.0 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton (-0.32%); the position increased by 9,848 hands. Among spot prices, the price of Carajás fines (65%) dropped by 4.0 yuan/ton, PB fines (61.5%) rose by 1.0 yuan/ton, etc. The basis and spreads also showed corresponding changes [5]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][7][8] - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,037 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.03%); the trading volume was 854,671 hands, and the position decreased by 35,070 hands. For hot - rolled coil HC2601, the closing price was 3,204 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.16%); the trading volume was 487,804 hands, and the position increased by 16,084 hands. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes, and the basis and spreads also changed accordingly [8]. - **News**: According to the weekly data from Steel Union on October 16, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 2.24 million tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 1.45 million tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 6.36 million tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 18.59 million tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 6.29 million tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 18.46 million tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar increased by 73.74 million tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 24.58 million tons, and the total increased by 139.96 million tons. In early October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.32 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.032 million tons, a 7.5% increase in daily output month - on - month; 18.75 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.875 million tons, a 3.2% increase in daily output month - on - month; 19.61 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.961 million tons, an 8.5% decrease in daily output month - on - month. In August 2025, China exported 9.51 million tons of steel, a 3.3% decrease month - on - month, and imported 500,000 tons of steel, a 10.4% increase month - on - month [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [10] Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Trend**: Cost provides bottom support, wide - range fluctuations [2][12] - **Fundamentals**: For silicon iron 2511, the closing price was 5,458 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; for silicon iron 2601, it was 5,430 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton. For manganese silicon 2511, the closing price was 5,716 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton; for manganese silicon 2601, it was 5,718 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton. Spot prices and various spreads also showed corresponding changes [12]. - **News**: On October 17, the prices of different grades of silicon iron and silicon manganese in various regions were reported. In September, the settlement electricity prices in the main production areas of silicon manganese showed different changes. An Inner Mongolia silicon iron plant carried out maintenance on two furnaces, with one recently restarted and the other expected to restart around the 25th. Steel mills such as Jinshenglan and Hegang had price adjustments and procurement volume changes for silicon iron and silicon manganese. As of this Friday, the manganese ore inventory in ports decreased [12][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Expectations are volatile, wide - range fluctuations [2][17][18] - **Fundamentals**: For coking coal JM2601, the previous day's closing price was 1,179 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan/ton (-0.5%); for coke J2601, it was 1,676 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton (0.2%). Spot prices and various spreads also changed [18]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [19] Logs - **Trend**: Fluctuate repeatedly [2][20] - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, under the background of a gradually loosening macro - environment, the long - term trend of steel prices remains unchanged. In the short - term, the weak real demand pattern of steel is difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the policy strength and direction around the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee [3]. - For iron ore, due to factors such as a decline in steel mill profits, an increase in iron - making production pressure, and an accumulation of port inventories, iron ore prices are under pressure. The overall terminal demand is weak, and macro - level disturbances continue, so the ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. - For manganese silicon and silicon iron, although the current real - world situation is not ideal, most of it has been priced in. Macro - level factors may be more important. The market is not pessimistic about the black sector, and it may be more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities. Manganese silicon and silicon iron are likely to follow the black sector's trend [10][11]. - For industrial silicon, supply pressure persists, and it is likely to fluctuate with the overall commodity environment and consolidate in the short - term [14]. - For polysilicon, there are policy expectations, but real - world constraints also exist. The sustainability of high prices depends on whether the expectations can be substantively implemented [16]. - For glass, with high inventory levels and weak downstream demand, the market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term [19]. - For soda ash, in the context of weak supply and demand, insufficient cost and demand support, the market is expected to continue to operate weakly and stably in the short - term [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3037 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.39%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 277,451 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest was 2.004317 million lots, a decrease of 35,070 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3120 yuan/ton with no change, and in Shanghai it was 3200 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3204 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (- 0.46%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 118,411 tons, a decrease of 2694 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.496079 million lots, an increase of 16,084 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3240 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai it was 3270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy Viewpoints - Macroscopically, the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is expected to have an important guiding significance for the macro - economic trend. Attention should also be paid to the meeting's stance and the progress of Sino - US negotiations. - Fundamentally, rebar production decreased slightly, and post - holiday demand led to a slight reduction in inventory, but overall demand recovery was insufficient. Hot - rolled coil production continued to decline, post - holiday demand also increased, but the inventory level was still high, and the fundamental contradiction was prominent, with the coil - rebar spread continuing to narrow [3]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 771.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.32% (- 2.50), and the open interest increased by 9848 lots to 545,400 lots. The weighted open interest was 905,400 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 778 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.83 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.75% [5]. Strategy Viewpoints - Supply: The latest overseas iron ore shipments decreased seasonally. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both decreased slightly, and shipments from non - mainstream countries remained stable. The near - term arrival volume increased to a high level in the same period. - Demand: The latest average daily pig iron production was 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 0.59 million tons. There were both blast furnace restarts and overhauls, and some blast furnaces began overhauls due to profit declines. The steel mill profitability rate continued to decline. - Terminal: The inventory pressure of sheet metal remained high, and the structural contradiction within the finished products still existed. Overall, iron ore prices were under pressure, and the short - term commodity environment was still under pressure. If a new round of economic and trade consultations is initiated, market sentiment may improve [6]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Information - On October 17, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed down 0.63% at 5718 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the delivery - equivalent price of 5870 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium of 152 yuan/ton over the futures. - The silicon iron main contract (SF601) closed down 0.48% at 5430 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, and a premium of 170 yuan/ton over the futures [8][9]. Strategy Viewpoints - The short - term real - world demand pressure on prices has been reflected in the market. Macro - level factors such as important meetings may be more important. Although the current real - world situation is not ideal, it has mostly been priced in. - The market is not pessimistic about the black sector. It may be more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities. Manganese silicon's potential driver may come from the manganese ore end, and silicon iron is likely to follow the black sector's trend with low operational cost - effectiveness [10][11]. Industrial Silicon Market Information - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) closed at 8430 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.03% (- 175). The weighted contract open interest increased by 12,173 lots to 442,119 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - permeable 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 870 yuan/ton for the main contract. The price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis for the main contract after conversion was 470 yuan/ton [13]. Strategy Viewpoints - The industrial silicon price fluctuated lower. Supply showed a pattern of "increasing in the north and decreasing in the south", with an overall increase in weekly production. Demand was under pressure, and cost factors provided some support. It was likely to fluctuate with the overall commodity environment and consolidate in the short - term [14]. Polysilicon Market Information - The main polysilicon contract (PS2511) closed at 52,340 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.45% (- 235). The weighted contract open interest decreased by 1633 lots to 276,945 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.25 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feed material was 52.8 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of 460 yuan/ton for the main contract [15]. Strategy Viewpoints - There were policy expectations for polysilicon, and the contract price rebounded. However, real - world constraints still existed, with an unexpected increase in production scheduling in October, a decrease in downstream silicon wafer production scheduling, and continuous inventory accumulation pressure. The sustainability of high prices depends on whether the expectations can be substantively implemented [16]. Glass Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1147 yuan/ton on Friday, an increase of 1.59% (+ 18). The quoted price of large - sized glass in North China was 1180 yuan, a decrease of 30 yuan from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1200 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 64.2756 million cases, an increase of 1.4516 million cases (+ 2.31%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 53,303 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 117,133 lots [18]. Strategy Viewpoints - Float glass factories had high inventory levels and faced great pressure to sell. Traders mainly focused on stabilizing prices and reducing inventory. The market lacked substantial positive support, and downstream purchasing willingness was low. The market was expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term [19]. Soda Ash Market Information - The soda ash main contract closed at 1235 yuan/ton on Friday, an increase of 0.24% (+ 3). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1165 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7005 million tons, an increase of 40,700 tons (+ 2.31%), including an increase of 20,000 tons in heavy soda ash inventory and 20,700 tons in light soda ash inventory. The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 11,705 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 31,185 lots [20]. Strategy Viewpoints - The domestic soda ash market continued to be weak and stable, with the price center basically unchanged. The industry's fundamentals had not improved substantially, and the supply - demand pattern remained loose, with enterprises generally in a loss - making state. Supply pressure was difficult to relieve quickly, and demand was weak. The market was expected to continue to operate weakly and stably in the short - term [21].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The core contradictions affecting the ferroalloy market include the imbalance between high supply and weak demand, challenges to cost support, and the conflict between anti - involution expectations and weak reality. Ferroalloy prices are under pressure due to weak downstream demand, high inventory, and international trade frictions. However, there is also a possibility of short - term rebounds driven by market expectations for policy changes [2][3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The contradiction between high supply and weak demand: Ferroalloy production profit is declining, and downstream demand shows no obvious improvement during the peak season. Silicon iron production has started to decline, while silicon manganese production increased slightly this week. Both silicon iron and silicon manganese inventories are at a five - year high, with silicon iron enterprise inventory up 4.5% and silicon manganese enterprise inventory up 8.2% week - on - week [2]. - Challenges to cost support: Although the prices of raw materials such as semi - coke, electricity, and manganese ore are stable, the high - supply and weak - demand pattern challenges the effectiveness of cost support. The rising coking coal price provides some support, but there is a risk of price decline if the meeting results are disappointing [2]. - The contradiction between anti - involution expectations and weak reality: The market still has expectations for supply - side contraction, but there is a lack of substantial action, leading to a high risk of price fluctuations. International trade frictions and weak steel fundamentals further suppress ferroalloy demand [3]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: Technically, the 10 - day moving average of ferroalloy is moving downwards and has broken below the 60 - day moving average. However, the shrinking green bars of MACD indicate weakening downward momentum. There is a possibility of a short - term rebound, but there will be pressure on the upside due to the poor fundamentals [12]. - **Price range**: The price range of the silicon iron main contract 2601 is 5200 - 6400, and that of the silicon manganese main contract is 5500 - 6500 [12]. - **Basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: The basis is expected to narrow slightly, and there is currently no basis strategy. For the calendar spread, although the 1 - 5 spread of ferroalloy is at a five - year low, it is not recommended to go long. The spread may further weaken, but the risk of reverse arbitrage is also high [12]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range forecast**: The monthly price range of silicon iron is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.37% and a historical percentile of 43.9% over three years. The monthly price range of silicon manganese is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.24% and a historical percentile of 9.6% over three years [13]. - **Inventory management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short ferroalloy futures to lock in profits and hedge against inventory depreciation. The recommended short - selling ratio is 15%, with an entry range of 6200 - 6250 for silicon iron and 6400 - 6500 for silicon manganese [13]. - **Procurement management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, it is recommended to buy ferroalloy futures to lock in procurement costs. The recommended buying ratio is 25%, with an entry range of 5200 - 5300 for silicon iron and 5300 - 5400 for silicon manganese [13]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on regulating price competition. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is expected to introduce policies for stabilizing the real estate market and reducing involution [14][15]. - **Negative information**: The EU has tightened steel import restrictions, and Mexico plans to impose additional tariffs on Chinese steel and automobiles. Sino - US trade frictions and weak steel fundamentals have dampened market sentiment [16]. - **Weekly data**: Silicon iron production decreased by 0.3 to 11.28, and silicon iron plant inventory increased by 3050 to 69080. Silicon manganese production increased by 4585 to 208810, and silicon manganese plant inventory increased by 20000 to 262500 [16]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Next Monday, China's Q3 GDP annual rate, one - year loan prime rate, and cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment will be released. Next Friday, the US September unadjusted CPI annual rate will be announced. The evolution of Sino - US trade frictions also needs attention [17]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral trends and capital movements**: The closing price of the silicon iron main contract 2601 was 5430, up 0.63% week - on - week, and the total open interest increased by 8.6% to 411,000 lots. The closing price of the silicon manganese main contract 01 was 5718, down 0.69% week - on - week, and the total open interest increased by 5.85% to 598,000 lots. The net short position of silicon iron is increasing, while the net short position of silicon manganese is decreasing [17]. - **Basis, calendar spread, and structure**: The term structure of ferroalloy is in contango, but the term structure of some silicon iron contracts is improving. The contango structure of coking coal is bearish for ferroalloy prices in the short term. The basis of ferroalloy is fluctuating narrowly, and the 1 - 5 calendar spread is at a five - year low. It is not recommended to go long, and the spread may further weaken [21][22]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Ferroalloy profit is continuously declining. Silicon iron production remains high, giving enterprises a strong incentive to cut production. Silicon manganese production has been falling for several weeks [40]. - The export profit of silicon iron is declining, and its export volume is expected to decrease [64]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - Supply: Although there is an expectation of increased production during the peak season, the continuous decline in production profit is likely to lead to a decrease in ferroalloy production. The production of silicon manganese in the southern region may also decline with the arrival of the flat - water season [68]. - Demand: Seasonally, ferroalloy demand should increase during the peak season, but the decline in the profit of downstream products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, along with the accumulation of five - major steel products' inventory, restrains the demand for ferroalloy. The demand for ferroalloy is expected to decline slightly [68]. - Inventory: Warehouse receipts are expected to continue to be destocked due to approaching forced cancellation months and seasonal patterns. Total inventory is expected to decline slowly [68]. 5.2 Supply - Side Projection - The decline in production profit does not support an increase in ferroalloy production. The production of silicon manganese in the southern region may decrease with the flat - water season. Silicon iron production is expected to decline slightly due to a significant drop in production profit [70]. 5.3 Demand - Side Projection - The demand for ferroalloy is affected by the weak profit of downstream products and the accumulation of five - major steel products' inventory. The high - level iron - water production is difficult to maintain, and the steel - making demand for ferroalloy may decline. The decline in silicon iron export profit will also affect its export volume [74]. 5.4 Inventory - Side Projection - Given the high operating rate of ferroalloy enterprises and weak downstream demand, enterprise inventory is likely to continue to accumulate. However, warehouse receipts are expected to be destocked, and total inventory will decline slowly [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental contradictions in the silicon - iron and manganese - silicon industries remain unresolved, and costs provide bottom - line support. The prices of alloys this week fluctuated around the cost line, with an expected accumulation of fundamental contradictions, and attention should be paid to the rhythm changes of furnace charge negative feedback [3][5]. 3. Summary of Each Section Manganese - silicon Fundamental Data - **Production**: This week, the manganese - silicon output was 208,810 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.46 tons or 2.2%. The weekly operating rate was 43.28%, a 0.09 - percentage - point increase from last week. Guizhou's production expanded as expected, while Yunnan's production contracted [19]. - **Demand**: From the performance of downstream steel mills, production remained at a high level, but the actual output of downstream hot metal decreased week - on - week. The overall demand for manganese - silicon was weak. For example, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.33%, a 0.22 - percentage - point decrease from last week, and the daily average hot - metal output was 240,950 tons, a 0.59 - ton decrease from last week [25]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17, the number of manganese - silicon warehouse receipts was 47,940, a decrease of 6,101 week - on - week, equivalent to 239,700 tons of inventory, with a warehouse - receipt de - stocking of 30,505 tons. The average available days of steel - mill manganese - silicon inventory in September was 15.93 days (+0.95 days). The inventory of 63 domestic manganese - silicon sample enterprises was 262,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons [30][31][35]. - **Raw Materials**: The global manganese - ore departure volume decreased. The departure volume of Australian and Ghanaian ores decreased week - on - week. Alloy plants' raw - material replenishment led to a continuous increase in port clearance. After southern plants enter the dry season, they may cut production, and manganese ore may maintain a slow inventory - accumulation rhythm later. The total inventory on October 10 was 445.7 tons (a 2.5 - ton decrease from the previous period) [42][49][52]. Silicon - iron Fundamental Data - **Production**: This week, the silicon - iron output was 112,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 tons. The weekly operating rate was 35.48%, a 0.46 - percentage - point decrease from last week. The reduction in production was mainly due to power - generation maintenance in Shaanxi factories, but the current willingness of major producing areas to cut production is not obvious [65]. - **Demand**: From the performance of downstream steel mills, production remained at a high level, but the actual output of downstream hot metal decreased week - on - week. The non - steel demand, such as stainless - steel production and metal production, showed an upward trend. The silicon - iron export volume in August was 35,000 tons, a 2.6% decrease from the previous month [78][79][80]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17, the inventory of 60 domestic silicon - iron sample enterprises was 69,080 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,050 tons. The number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts was 12,205, a decrease of 2,835 week - on - week, equivalent to 61,025 tons of inventory, with a warehouse - receipt de - stocking of 14,175 tons. The average available days of steel - mill silicon - iron inventory in September was 15.52 days (+0.85 days) [89]. - **Cost**: The raw - material prices decreased, and the production - cost center of gravity of silicon - iron moved down, but the decline was limited [93].

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights a significant decline in China's ferroalloy exports in April 2025, with a volume of 70,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 31.5% and an export value of 15.3 million USD, down 29.3% year-on-year [1] Industry Overview - The ferroalloy industry in China is experiencing a downturn in export performance, as indicated by the latest customs data [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals show a double - decline in supply and demand. The change in the supply side is slow, while the demand side has a continuous downward expectation, which suppresses the upside space of prices. The valuation level and cost side have certain support, and the overall trend is mainly bottom - range oscillation [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Supply side shows differentiation, with a slight decline in ferrosilicon production but a slight increase in silicomanganese production. The total supply remains high. Demand side has a slight decline in the molten iron output of 247 steel mills. With the end of the traditional steel peak season and poor inventory reduction, there is a downward expectation for raw material demand. The cost side is supported by strong动力煤 prices, stable electricity prices in ferroalloy production areas, and low manganese ore inventory [5] - **Macro - aspects**: The Fourth Plenary Session next week to announce the 14th Five - Year Plan may boost market sentiment, but the short - term stimulus is expected to be limited. The anti - involution trading has also driven the alloy market, but the effect is weakening due to high supply [5] 3.1.2 Strategies - **Single - side**: Bottom - range oscillation - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see - **Options**: Sell straddle combinations on rallies [6] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 2.4095 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0059 million tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types is 19,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 200 tons, and for silicomanganese is 121,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons [11] - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 35.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46%. The weekly supply of ferrosilicon is 112,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,000 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises is 43.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.09%. The weekly supply of silicomanganese is 208,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,600 tons [12] - **Inventory**: In the week of October 17, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 69,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,000 tons. The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises is 263,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons [13] 3.2.2 Other Data - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of silicomanganese and ferrosilicon in different regions are provided, showing losses in most regions [30][40] - **Price and Basis**: Market prices and basis of Inner Mongolia silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are presented [18] - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: Data on the production, operating rate, and capacity utilization of steel mills and ferroalloy enterprises are shown [23][28] - **Import and Export**: Data on the net import of manganese ore and net export of ferrosilicon are presented [66] - **Inventory**: Inventories of alloy factories, steel mills, and ports for manganese ore and ferrosilicon are provided [72][75]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, Trump restarted the trade war against China, imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese products exported to the US, causing a general decline in commodities at the beginning of the week. Relevant measures were introduced to support energy - saving and carbon - reduction transformation in key industries like steel. The domestic steel demand is expected to decline during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, and enterprises should pay attention to the transition from output control to carbon - emission control. Overseas, short - term funds flowed to US Treasury bonds and gold due to Trump's tariff threat. The IMF predicted that the world economy would grow by 3.2% in 2025, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the July forecast [7]. - In terms of supply and demand, manufacturers maintained normal production to fulfill previous orders. The inventory was at a neutral level, and the short - term cost was supported by the stable price of semi - coke. The spot profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were in the red, at - 445 yuan/ton and - 390 yuan/ton respectively. Technically, the weekly K - line of the ferrosilicon main contract was below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend. It is expected that ferrosilicon will oscillate between 5300 - 5600 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Macro and Overseas**: Trump's tariff threat led to a decline in commodities at the beginning of the week. Measures were introduced for energy - saving and carbon - reduction in the steel industry. The domestic steel demand will decline in the future. Overseas, funds flowed to safe - havens due to the tariff threat, and the IMF raised the world economic growth forecast [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Manufacturers maintained normal production, with a neutral inventory level. The short - term cost was supported by semi - coke. The spot profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were negative [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The weekly K - line of the ferrosilicon main contract was below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: With high - level production and a downward trend in subsequent crude steel output, the alloy is likely to remain in the red. Ferrosilicon is expected to oscillate between 5300 - 5600 [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of October 17, the ferrosilicon futures contract持仓量 was 412,000 lots, an increase of 33,000 lots compared to the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract month - spread was 78, a decrease of 34 points. The number of warehouse receipts was 12,611, a decrease of 3,693. The Ningxia ferrosilicon price was 5,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [9][12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of October 17, the ferrosilicon basis was - 300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 points [21]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - **Industry**: This week (October 16), the national capacity utilization rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 35.48%, a decrease of 0.46% from the previous week. The daily average output was 16,115 tons, a decrease of 2.62%. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon from five major steel types was 19,572.5 tons, a decrease of 0.92%. The national ferrosilicon weekly supply was 112,800 tons. The national inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 69,080 tons, an increase of 4.62% [27][31]. - **Upstream**: As of October 13, the electricity price in Ningxia decreased by 0.01 yuan/kWh, while that in Inner Mongolia increased by 0.005 yuan/kWh. As of October 16, the semi - coke price remained unchanged. The ferrosilicon spot production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5,625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11%, and in Ningxia was 5,522 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 0.11%. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 445 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.48%, and in Ningxia was - 392 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.51% [35][38]. - **Downstream**: This week, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 240.95 tons, a decrease of 0.59 tons compared to the previous week but an increase of 6.59 tons compared to last year. From January to August 2025, China's ferrosilicon export volume was 254,200 tons, a decrease of 25,800 tons compared to the same period last year, a decline of 9.21% [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomic factors include Trump restarting the trade war with China, potential for precise macro - policies, support for energy - saving and carbon - reduction in the steel industry, and a predicted decline in domestic steel demand during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. Overseas, short - term funds have shifted to US bonds and gold due to Trump's tariff threats, and the IMF expects the world economy to grow by 3.2% in 2025 [6]. - In terms of supply and demand, pre - holiday inventory has rebounded rapidly, production has slightly declined from a high level, and inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has decreased by 2.1 tons, and iron water production is oscillating at a high level. Profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia are in the negative, and the mainstream steel procurement pricing is still under negotiation [6]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend. It is expected that after October, new production capacity in Inner Mongolia will increase, and the supply pressure will rise. With the national policy of reducing crude steel production, the alloy is likely to remain in a loss state. The manganese - silicon main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5650 - 5850 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Macro**: Trump restarts the trade war with China, adding 100% tariffs on Chinese products exported to the US, causing a general decline in commodities at the beginning of the week. The state may implement precise macro - policies, and the steel industry is supported in energy - saving and carbon - reduction. The domestic steel demand is expected to decline during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [6]. - **Overseas**: Due to Trump's tariff threats, short - term funds shift to US bonds and gold. The IMF expects the world economy to grow by 3.2% in 2025, 0.2 percentage points higher than the July forecast [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Pre - holiday inventory rebounds rapidly, production slightly declines from a high level, and inventory increases for three consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreases by 2.1 tons, and iron water production is at a high level. Inner Mongolia's spot profit is - 145 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is - 270 yuan/ton. The mainstream steel procurement pricing is still under negotiation [6]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy**: After October, new production capacity in Inner Mongolia is expected to increase, and the supply pressure will rise. With the national policy of reducing crude steel production, the alloy is likely to remain in a loss state. The manganese - silicon main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5650 - 5850 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: As of October 17, the silicon - manganese futures contract's open interest is 598,000 lots, an increase of 33,000 lots. The 5 - 1 contract spread is 42, an increase of 8 points. The manganese - silicon warehouse receipts are 48,976, a decrease of 5,359. The spread between the manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon January contracts is 288, a decrease of 76 points [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of October 17, the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot price is 5530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The basis is - 168 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 points [24]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Industry**: The production of silicon - manganese is at a high level, with the national capacity utilization rate at 43.28%, an increase of 0.09%. The daily average production is 29,830 tons, an increase of 655 tons. The weekly demand of five major steel types for silicon - manganese is 121,113 tons, a decrease of 0.79%, and the weekly supply of national silicon - manganese is 208,810 tons, an increase of 2.25% [27]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, the national silicon - manganese inventory is 262,500 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons [32]. - **Upstream**: As of October 17, the price of South32 South African semi - carbonate lump at Tianjin Port is 34.0 yuan/ton - degree, a slight increase. As of October 13, the electricity price in Ningxia has decreased by 0.01 yuan/kWh, and that in Inner Mongolia remains unchanged. The port inventory of imported manganese ore is 445.7 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons. The arrival of manganese ore from different countries shows different trends. The silicon - manganese spot profit remains in a loss state [36][41][46]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills is 240.95 tons, a decrease of 0.59 tons from last week but an increase of 6.59 tons compared to last year. The final pricing of Hebei Iron and Steel Group's silicon - manganese in September is 6000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton [50].