Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. The price is likely to continue weak and volatile in the short term, but there may be a marginal inflection point in demand with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement [3] - For iron ore, in the macro vacuum period, the market is likely to follow the real - world logic. It has strong supply, stable demand, and some resource shortages, and is expected to operate within a volatile range [6] - For ferroalloys, although the downward pressure on prices still exists, there is no need to be overly pessimistic, and the positive impact of December's macro - events on market sentiment is expected. It is recommended to focus on the inflection point of market sentiment and corresponding price changes [11] - For industrial silicon, it is expected to continue to operate in a volatile manner in the short term, and attention should be paid to phased emotional disturbances [15][16] - For polysilicon, it is caught between reality and expectations. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited, and it is expected to oscillate widely within a range [18] - For glass, it is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, with limited room for further decline [21] - For soda ash, it is expected to maintain a weak operation before the glass demand shows substantial improvement [23] Group 3: Summary of Each Category Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3057 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.229%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in Tianjin decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3270 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.091%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai remained unchanged [2] Strategy Views - Rebar has both supply and demand increasing, with continuous inventory reduction, showing a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have rising terminal demand, slightly decreasing production, but still high inventory levels. In the short term, due to weak off - season demand and high plate inventory, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile. However, with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement, steel demand may have a marginal inflection point [3] Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract (I2601) closed at 785.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.38% (- 3.00). The position changed by - 16984 hands to 46.05 million hands. The weighted position was 92.33 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 788 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 52.34 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.25% [5] Strategy Views - Supply: Overseas iron ore shipments rebounded significantly. Both Australian and Brazilian shipments increased, and shipments from non - mainstream countries also rose. Demand: The daily average pig iron output decreased, with more blast furnace overhauls than restarts. Inventory: Port inventory decreased slightly, and steel mill inventory was consumed. Overall, the total inventory is still high, with some resource shortages, and it is expected to operate within a volatile range [6] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On November 21, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.14% at 5606 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 234 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed up 0.48% at 5472 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5450 yuan/ton, at a discount of 22 yuan/ton to the futures [8][10] Strategy Views - The market risk appetite weakened last week. Ferroalloy prices declined significantly but may stop falling. It is recommended to focus on the inflection point of market sentiment and corresponding price changes. For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short - sell. Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not good, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore situation. Ferrosilicon's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, with low operational cost - effectiveness [11][12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2601) closed at 8960 yuan/ton, down 1.27% (- 115). The weighted position changed by - 14960 hands to 427668 hands. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, and the basis was 390 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 was 9800 yuan/ton, and the basis was 40 yuan/ton [14] - Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2601) closed at 53360 yuan/ton, up 1.73% (+ 910). The weighted position changed by - 6326 hands to 232072 hands. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, and the basis was - 1060 yuan/ton [17] Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The price continued to weaken last Friday. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is stable. The cost provides support, and it is expected to operate in a volatile manner in the short term [15][16] - Polysilicon: It is caught between reality and expectations. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited, and it is expected to oscillate widely within a range [18] Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: The main contract closed at 989 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.98% (- 20). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 5.60 million boxes (0.09%) week - on - week [20] - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1158 yuan/ton on Friday, down 2.03% (- 24). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 6.29 million tons week - on - week [22] Strategy Views - Glass: The expectation of cold - repair of production lines in December is increasing, but the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [21] - Soda ash: Although some devices were overhauled last week, the market is still oversupplied. The demand is divided, and it is expected to maintain a weak operation before the glass demand improves [23]

Report Title - Silicon Ferrosilicon & Manganese Silicon Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] Report Date - November 23, 2025 [2] Report Authors - Li Yafei, Jin Yuanyuan [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the raw material segment has cooled, leading to a compensatory decline in alloy prices, with a weak trend [3][5][6]. - The fundamental contradictions in the alloy market continue to accumulate, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of negative feedback from furnace materials [5]. - For ferrosilicon, due to profit compression and seasonal maintenance, some factories in the main production areas have continued to shut down furnaces and reduce production. For manganese silicon, the cost side remains firm, but inventory is high, suppressing the upside potential of the market [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance - This week, the ferrosilicon main contract shifted to the 2603 contract, with a weak and volatile trend, closing at 5,472 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68 yuan/ton from the previous week. Trading volume was 1,512,911 lots, and open interest was 205,123 lots, an increase of 70,578 lots from the previous week [6]. - The manganese silicon 2601 contract also showed a weak and volatile trend, closing at 5,606 yuan/ton, a decrease of 142 yuan/ton from the previous week. Trading volume was 1,101,884 lots, and open interest was 439,441 lots, an increase of 77,685 lots from the previous week [7]. 2. Fundamental Data Ferrosilicon - Supply: Weekly output was 10.83 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.73% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.57%. Due to profit compression and seasonal maintenance, some factories in the main production areas continued to shut down furnaces and reduce production [4][5][61]. - Demand: In September, export volume was 2.56 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 36.14% and a year-on-year decrease of 35.86%. Steelmaking demand was weak, with a slight contraction in hot metal output. Steel procurement volume decreased, and demand was limited [4][74][79]. - Inventory: As of November 21, the inventory of 60 sample enterprises was 73,050 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 8,310 tons. The number of warehouse receipts was 8,276, a week-on-week decrease of 174, equivalent to a decrease of 870 tons. In October, the average number of days of steel mill inventory availability was 15.67 days (+0.15 days) [4][85]. - Profit: The weekly futures profit was -38.00 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 31.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 115.15%. The weekly spot profit was -380.00 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.98% and a year-on-year decrease of 30300.00% [4]. Manganese Silicon - Supply: Weekly output was 19.69 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.33% but a year-on-year increase of 3.06%. Due to high inventory and profit compression, some factories have shut down furnaces and reduced production, but there are still expectations of new furnace startups in the north in the next two months [4][21][57]. - Demand: In September, export volume was 0.32 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 28.34% and a year-on-year decrease of 38.58%. Steelmaking demand was weakly supported, with a slight contraction in hot metal output and weak overall demand for manganese silicon [4][30]. - Inventory: As of November 21, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 363,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 10,500 tons. The number of warehouse receipts was 20,337, a week-on-week increase of 474, equivalent to an increase of 2,370 tons. In October, the average number of days of steel mill inventory availability was 15.67 days (-1.44 days) [4][34][37]. - Profit: The weekly futures profit was -126.09 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 892.67% and a year-on-year decrease of 124.65%. The weekly spot profit was -212.09 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 60.56% and a year-on-year decrease of 190.83% [4]. 3. Macro and Micro Environment - Macro: In China, the CPI turned positive year-on-year in October, and the PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed for three consecutive months. Overseas, the short-term government shutdown in the US ended, and the market's trading focus shifted to interest rate cuts. However, hawkish remarks from Fed officials significantly reduced market expectations for a December interest rate cut [5]. - Micro: Hot metal output decreased slightly week-on-week, weakly supporting the demand for raw materials. The fundamental contradictions in the alloy market continue to accumulate, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of negative feedback from furnace materials [5]. 4. Raw Material Market - Manganese Ore: Global manganese ore shipping volume increased week-on-week, with alternating dominance between South African and Ghanaian ore shipments and Australian ore. The supply and demand of manganese ore are currently relatively balanced, but attention should be paid to potential changes in shipping and the impact of futures prices on port ore quotes [41][48]. - Ferrosilicon Raw Materials: The prices of raw materials such as blue coke and oxidized iron scale remained relatively firm, compressing ferrosilicon profits [95][96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has been weak recently. Although the downward pressure on prices persists and market risks remain, there is still hope for a positive impact on market sentiment from a series of macro - events in December. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for opportunities to rebound rather than short - selling. Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal and lack a major contradiction, and attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore. Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions or driving forces, and its operability is relatively low [15][98] 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Report 3.1.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Summary**: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5650 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures price was 5606 yuan/ton, down 142 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis was 234 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 4.03%. Profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi were - 546, - 682, and - 854 yuan/ton respectively, all in the red. Production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi were 6066, 6142, and 6404 yuan/ton respectively. Weekly manganese silicon output was 19.69 tons, down 0.26 tons week - on - week, but cumulative output was up about 0.77% year - on - year.螺纹钢周产量207.96万吨，环比增加7.96万吨，累计同比下降约2.44%；日均铁水产量236.28万吨，环比下降0.6万吨，累计同比增加约3.44%。显性库存为46.96万吨，环比增加1.09万吨，处于同期高位 [14] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a relatively high level, production profits continue to be in the red, production is declining, demand is mixed (low - level steel production but high - level iron water production), inventory is at a high level, and the tender volume from HeSteel Group has decreased while the tender price is stable. The manganese silicon futures price showed a weak trend last week, and attention should be paid to whether it can be supported at 5600 yuan/ton. If not, the price may fall to 5400 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and price [15] 3.1.2 Spot - Futures Market - As of November 21, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 5650 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures price was 5606 yuan/ton, down 142 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 234 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate was 4.03%, at a relatively high historical level [20] 3.1.3 Profit and Cost - **Profit**: As of November 21, 2025, the estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon (excluding depreciation) remained low. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 546 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, - 682 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi, - 854 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton week - on - week [25] - **Cost**: As of November 21, 2025, the prices of South African, Australian, and Gabonese manganese ores and off - grade metallurgical coke were stable. The estimated immediate production cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6066 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, 6142 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi, 6404 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton week - on - week [27][31] - **Manganese Ore Import and Inventory**: In October, the manganese ore import volume was 310.01 tons, up 1.53 tons month - on - month and 17.17 tons year - on - year. As of November 14, 2025, the manganese ore port inventory was 426.3 tons, down 13.4 tons week - on - week. The port inventory of Australian manganese ore and high - grade manganese ore also decreased [34][37] 3.1.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: As of November 21, 2025, the weekly output of manganese silicon was 19.69 tons, down 0.26 tons week - on - week, but cumulative output was up about 0.77% year - on - year. In October 2025, the output was 91.57 tons, up 1.73 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to October was down 1.23 tons year - on - year or 0.15%. HeSteel Group's tender volume in November 2025 was 16,000 tons, down 500 tons month - on - month but up 3700 tons year - on - year, and the tender price was 5820 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [45][56] - **Demand**: As of November 21, 2025, the weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon was 12.14 tons, up 0.28 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar was 207.96 tons, up 7.96 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of about 2.44%. The daily average hot metal output was 236.28 tons, down 0.6 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.44%. In October 2025, the national crude steel output was 72 million tons, down 1.5 million tons month - on - month and 9.9 million tons year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, down 1.3 pct week - on - week [59][62][63] 3.1.5 Inventory - As of November 21, 2025, the estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 46.96 tons, up 1.09 tons week - on - week, at a high level compared to the same period. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 36.3 tons, up 1.05 tons week - on - week. In October, the average available days of steel mill inventory were 15.7 days, down 0.23 days month - on - month, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period [70][73][76] 3.1.6 Graphical Trends - Last week, the manganese silicon futures price rebounded at the beginning of the week and then declined rapidly, with a weekly decline of 138 yuan/ton or 2.4%. On the daily chart, it broke below the platform since September and was close to the support level of 5600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to whether it can be supported at this level; otherwise, the price may fall to 5400 yuan/ton [82] Silicon Iron Report 3.2.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Summary**: The daily average hot metal output was 236.28 tons, down 0.6 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.44%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 70.19 tons, down 2.55 tons year - on - year or 3.51%. The cumulative export volume of silicon iron from January to October 2025 was 33.67 tons, down 3.1 tons year - on - year or 8.42%. The estimated visible inventory of silicon iron was 11.78 tons, down 0.88 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The spot price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron was 5450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures price was 5472 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was - 22 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate was - 0.40%, at a low historical level. The estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai was - 571, - 577, and - 725 yuan/ton respectively. The weekly output of silicon iron was 10.83 tons, down 0.08 tons week - on - week, but cumulative output was up about 0.77% year - on - year [97] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a low level, production profits continue to be in the red, production has decreased slightly, demand is mixed (high - level hot metal production but weak magnesium metal demand), inventory is at a relatively high level, and the tender volume and price from HeSteel Group have decreased. The silicon iron futures price showed a weak trend last week, remaining in the range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the support at 5400 yuan/ton. The supply - demand fundamentals of silicon iron have no obvious contradictions or driving forces, and its operability is relatively low [98] 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Market - As of November 21, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron was 5450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures price was 5472 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was - 22 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate was - 0.40%, at a low historical level [103] 3.2.3 Profit and Cost - **Profit**: As of November 21, 2025, the estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia was - 571 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, - 577 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Qinghai, - 725 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton week - on - week [108] - **Cost**: As of November 21, 2025, the prices of silica in the northwest region and semi - coke small materials were stable. The estimated production cost of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia was 5771 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, 5707 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Qinghai, 5895 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week [111][114] 3.2.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: As of November 21, 2025, the weekly output of silicon iron was 10.83 tons, down 0.08 tons week - on - week, but cumulative output was up about 0.77% year - on - year. In October 2025, the output was 50.53 tons, up 1.71 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to October was up 5.52 tons year - on - year or 1.24%. HeSteel Group's tender volume of 75B silicon iron alloy in November 2025 was 2716 tons, down 240 tons month - on - month but up 1216 tons year - on - year, and the tender price was 5680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton month - on - month [119][125] - **Demand**: As of November 21, 2025, the daily average hot metal output was 236.28 tons, down 0.6 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.44%. In October 2025, the national crude steel output was 72 million tons, down 1.5 million tons month - on - month and 9.9 million tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 70.19 tons, down 2.55 tons year - on - year or 3.51%. As of November 21, 2025, the price of magnesium metal in Fugu area was 16,050 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The cumulative export volume of silicon iron from January to October 2025 was 33.67 tons, down 3.1 tons year - on - year or 8.42%. The estimated immediate export profit of 75B silicon iron was at a relatively low level [128][131][134] 3.2.5 Inventory - As of November 21, 2025, the estimated visible inventory of silicon iron was 11.78 tons, down 0.88 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level compared to the same period. In October, the average available days of steel mill inventory were 15.67 days, up 0.15 days month - on - month, and the inventory continued to increase slightly but remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period [142][145] 3.2.6 Graphical Trends - Last week, the silicon iron futures price rose sharply at the beginning of the week but failed to break the downward trend and then declined rapidly, with a weekly decline of 56 yuan/ton or 1.02%. On the daily chart, it remained in the range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton (the upper limit of the recent range has narrowed to 5650 yuan/ton). The price briefly broke below 5400 yuan/ton and then rebounded. The current price trend is bearish, and attention should be paid to the support at 5400 yuan/ton [151]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the ferroalloy market continue to show a pattern of both supply and demand decline, with support from the cost side. The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom this week due to the drag of macro - sentiment, but the low valuation of the alloy itself and the production - cut trend on the supply side make the profit - loss ratio of short - selling unfavorable [5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the production of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese sample enterprises has both decreased, and a production - cut trend has initially formed as prices reach low levels and enterprise losses increase. On the demand side, steel production and apparent demand have both increased this week, but steel profits remain low, and future pig iron production is expected to oscillate downward, with a weakening expectation for raw material demand. On the cost side, ferroalloy electricity prices in production areas are generally firm, port manganese ore inventories are at a low level compared to the same period, and spot manganese ore prices are stable with a slight upward trend [5] - **Macro - aspects**: Recently, the sentiment in the risk - asset market has been generally weak. Hawkish remarks from the Fed's Cook led to a sharp decline in US stocks, driving an overall adjustment in the global equity market. In the domestic commodity market, coking coal has led the overall ferrous metals to operate weakly, which also impacts the sentiment in the ferroalloy market. However, due to the low valuation of the alloy itself and the emerging production - cut trend on the supply side, the profit - loss ratio of short - selling is not high, so the market is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom this week [5] Strategies - **Unilateral**: Affected by macro - sentiment, but with a low valuation of the alloy itself and a production - cut trend on the supply side, the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom this week [6] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [6] - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money straddle combinations on rallies [6] Weekly Data Tracking Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: According to Mysteel data, the average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 2.3628 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 million tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel grades (the sample accounts for about 70% of the total demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel grades) is 19,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 500 tons; the weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel grades (70%) is 121,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,800 tons [11] - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises in the country is 33.81%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.03%; the national ferrosilicon production (weekly supply) is 108,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 800 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises in the country is 39.13%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46%; the national silicomanganese production (99% of weekly supply) is 196,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,700 tons [12] - **Inventory**: In the week of November 21, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises in the country is 73,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,300 tons; the inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises in the country (accounting for 79.77% of the national production capacity) is 363,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,500 tons [13] Cost - Profit Analysis - **Silicomanganese**: The production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, and Guizhou are 5,778 yuan/ton, 5,877 yuan/ton, 6,376 yuan/ton, and 6,195 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding losses of 178 yuan/ton, 397 yuan/ton, 806 yuan/ton, and 645 yuan/ton. The production costs in the north and south are 5,809 yuan/ton and 6,268 yuan/ton respectively, with losses of 302 yuan/ton and 713 yuan/ton [32] - **Ferrosilicon**: The production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Qinghai, and Gansu are 5,441 yuan/ton, 5,622 yuan/ton, 5,726 yuan/ton, 5,780 yuan/ton, and 5,828 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding losses of 241 yuan/ton, 472 yuan/ton, 596 yuan/ton, 580 yuan/ton, and 628 yuan/ton [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Unilateral observation; opportunistic participation in spot-futures positive arbitrage for hot-rolled coils, or using options strategies to assist spot sales [7] - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Investment clients should short on rallies, and industrial clients can use put spreads to protect spot exposure [7] - Coking Coal and Coke: Unilateral trading with a short-term focus; medium- and long-term investors should wait and see, and previously recommended hedging short positions should be closed [7] - Iron Ore: Hold short positions [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: Market sentiment is cooling, but weekly data may continue to improve. The static valuation of steel futures prices is not high, but there is a lack of upward momentum, and the concern of steel mill production cuts remains. Steel production is expected to gradually decline [2] - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Supply exceeds demand, and prices are under pressure. The direct demand has weakened significantly, and the supply surplus pressure persists in the medium term, despite stronger cost support [2][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: The spot market sentiment is weakening, and the expectation of coke price cuts is increasing. The decline in coking coal and coke prices may be nearing an end, but the driving force for a rebound may need to wait until mid - December [5] - Iron Ore: The fundamentals are weak, with expected inventory accumulation in the medium term. However, due to strong macro - sentiment, it is difficult to break through the price range, and the operation is biased towards shorting on rallies [6] 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Futures Price Information - On November 20th, the closing prices and price changes of far - month contracts (RB2605, HC2605, etc.) and near - month contracts (RB2601, HC2601, etc.) in the black metal futures market are provided, including price changes and percentage changes [1] 3.2 Spread and Profit Information - On November 20th, information such as thread surface profit, coil - thread spread, thread - ore ratio, coal - coke ratio, and coking surface profit is provided, along with their price changes [1] 3.3 Spot Price Information - On November 20th, spot prices of various products such as Tianjin thread, Guangzhou thread, Tangshan billet, Shanghai hot - rolled coil, and coking coal at different ports are provided, along with their price changes [1] 3.4 Basis Information - On November 20th, basis data for HC, RB, J, and other main contracts are provided, along with their price changes [1]

铁合金早报 供应 需求 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：72%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：75%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁-硅锰主力合约价差（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is under pressure, with major stock indexes generally falling, and the market may experience an oversold rebound due to shrinking trading volume [19][20]. - The bond market shows a differentiated performance under the influence of various news, and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [23]. - In the agricultural products market, most varieties face supply - demand pressures and price fluctuations, such as protein meal under pressure and sugar prices showing a range - bound pattern [27][31]. - The black metal market has steel prices in a range - bound pattern, with potential for iron water reduction, and double - coking and iron ore prices showing weakness [54][57][60]. - The non - ferrous metal market has precious metals, copper, and other varieties in a state of shock, with different influencing factors for each [65][70]. - The energy and chemical market has products such as crude oil and asphalt in a state of shock, with different supply - demand situations for each [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market is under test, with major indexes and stock index futures falling. The market may have an oversold rebound, and trading strategies include going short first and then long, conducting IM\IC futures - spot arbitrage, and using a double - buy option strategy [19][20][21]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed with mixed results. The bond market is affected by multiple factors and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. Trading strategies suggest waiting and trying to go long on the T - contract quarterly - next - quarter inter - period spread [22][23][24]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Protein Meal - The international soybean market has a clear pattern of abundant production, and domestic bean meal has a large supply pressure. Strategies include short - selling far - month contracts of rapeseed meal and using a short - straddle option strategy [26][27]. 3.2.2 Sugar - International sugar prices are in a state of shock, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be range - bound. Strategies include going long on domestic sugar at low prices and selling put options at low levels [30][31]. 3.2.3 Oilseeds and Oils - The palm oil market is in a state of shock, with limited upside potential. Soybean oil follows the overall trend, and rapeseed oil is expected to continue to reduce inventory. Strategies include short - term long - short operations [34]. 3.2.4 Corn/Corn Starch - The external market of corn is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the domestic corn market has different trends in different regions. Strategies include short - term long - short operations and narrowing the spread between 01 corn and starch [37]. 3.2.5 Livestock (Pigs) - The supply pressure of pigs still exists, and strategies include waiting and selling a wide - straddle option strategy [39]. 3.2.6 Peanuts - Peanut prices are at the bottom and fluctuating. Strategies include short - selling 01 peanuts at high prices and conducting a 15 - peanut reverse spread [42]. 3.2.7 Eggs - Egg demand is average, and prices are stable with a slight decline. Strategies suggest waiting [47]. 3.2.8 Apples - Apple production has decreased, and the effective inventory is expected to be low. However, due to large price fluctuations, strategies suggest leaving the market and waiting [48][49]. 3.2.9 Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The cotton market has few fundamental contradictions and is in a state of shock. Strategies suggest waiting [52]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Steel prices are in a range - bound pattern, and there is still room for reducing iron water. Strategies include maintaining a shock strategy and going long on the coil - screw spread [54][55]. 3.3.2 Double - Coking - The spot price of double - coking has回调, and the market is expected to be weak in the short - term. Strategies include gradually closing short positions and waiting to go long at low prices [57][58]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - Iron ore is treated with a bearish mindset. Strategies include short - term short - selling and conducting a 1/5 inter - period reverse spread [60]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys have weak supply and demand, with cost support. Strategies include bottom - bound shock operations and selling out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [61][62]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Precious Metals - Precious metals continue to fluctuate due to mixed signals from the US non - farm data. Strategies include holding long positions cautiously near the support level [65][68]. 3.4.2 Copper - Copper prices are under pressure from the strong US dollar. Strategies include trying to go long at low prices and focusing on the support level [70]. 3.4.3 Alumina - Alumina has not seen substantial production cuts, and prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. Strategies suggest waiting [74][76]. 3.4.4 Electrolytic Aluminum - The Fed's interest - rate decision is uncertain, and aluminum prices follow the sector. Strategies include short - term waiting and focusing on the spread between East China and the Central Plains [77]. 3.4.5 Cast Aluminum Alloys - Cast aluminum alloys follow the aluminum price. Strategies include short - term waiting [81]. 3.4.6 Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuate widely. Strategies include setting stop - profit points for long positions and being vigilant about macro - factors [85]. 3.4.7 Lead - Lead prices are range - bound. Strategies suggest waiting [87]. 3.4.8 Nickel - Nickel prices are in a downward trend, approaching the cost. Strategies suggest waiting for a turnaround in the inventory situation [88]. 3.4.9 Stainless Steel - Stainless steel has weak supply and demand, and prices are weak. Strategies include short - selling on rebounds and selling out - of - the - money call options [92][94]. 3.4.10 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon may have a short - term correction, and strategies include buying at low prices after a full correction [95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 20, ferroalloy futures prices declined overall. For ferrosilicon, the spot price was stable with a slight weakness, and the supply and demand were both weak, but the cost side provided some support. It was not advisable to chase short positions. For silicomanganese, it was expected to fluctuate at the bottom under the background of weak supply and demand and cost support [5]. - Unilateral: With weak supply - demand fundamentals and rising costs, it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5446, down 58 from the previous day and 134 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 315,918 (an increase of 83,681) and an open interest of 165,626 (an increase of 22,700). The closing price of the SM main contract was 5614, down 28 from the previous day and 142 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 148,657 (a decrease of 63,593) and an open interest of 438,614 (an increase of 2,355) [2]. - **Spot Data**: For ferrosilicon, the spot price in some regions decreased by 50 - 150 yuan/ton. For silicomanganese, the spot price in some regions decreased by 20 - 80 yuan/ton. The manganese ore spot in Tianjin was generally stable [2]. - **Basis/Spread Data**: The basis and spread of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed different daily and weekly changes. The SF - SM spread was - 168, down 30 from the previous day and up 8 from the previous week [2]. - **Raw Material Data**: The manganese ore in Tianjin was generally stable, with the price of Australian lump increasing by 0.2 from the previous week, and the price of South African semi - carbonate remaining unchanged. The prices of small - sized blue charcoal in different regions remained unchanged [2]. 3.2 Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - **Ferrosilicon**: On the 20th, the spot price was stable with a slight weakness. The supply was expected to decline slightly due to increased maintenance in Qinghai. The demand had a downward expectation due to low steel profits. The cost was generally stable with a slight strength. It was not advisable to chase short positions [5]. - **Silicomanganese**: On the 20th, the manganese ore spot was stable, and the silicomanganese spot was stable with a slight weakness. The supply decreased slightly as the price fell. The demand had a downward expectation due to low steel profits. The cost was increased because of low port inventory and rising overseas quotes. It was expected to fluctuate at the bottom [5]. - **Important Information**: On the 20th, the price of semi - carbonate Mn37.12% at Tianjin Port was 35 yuan/ton - degree, the price of Gabonese lump Mn46% was 41 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of Australian lump Mn42%Fe 3.6% was 40 yuan/ton - degree. In October 2025, China's exports of ferrosilicon with a silicon content greater than 55% were 24,359.305 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.18%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative exports were 317,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.37% [7]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report includes multiple figures such as the trend review of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM on the disk, the inter - monthly spreads of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the basis of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the ferroalloy electricity price, and the production cost and profit of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [10][12][14][16][18][21]

锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/11/20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,614.00 | -28.00↓ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,446.00 | -16.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 727,626.00 | +12625.00↑ SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 439,983.00 | +16425.00↑ | | | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -7,393.00 | +4977.00↑ 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -13,569.00 | +3157.00↑ | | | SM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 66.00 | +8.00↑ SF5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -10.00 | -8.00↓ | | | SM 仓单（日，张） | 20,343.00 | +599.00↑ SF 仓单（日，张） | 8,354.00 | -42.00↓ | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [5] Core View of the Report - Currently, the supply - demand situation in the industry is marginally weakening, in line with off - season characteristics. The fundamental pattern is expected to continue, with limited trend guidance for prices. In the short term, the market will maintain an oscillatory trend. If there are more positive macro and policy signals later, there may be phased upward opportunities [5] Summary by Directory 1. Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased significantly on a month - on - month basis, and the arrival volume has continued to decline after peaking. Port inventories have decreased slightly. Small - sample hot metal production has slightly decreased, and large - scale maintenance has not occurred. In the short term, hot metal is expected to be supported, and iron ore restocking demand is expected to be released, so iron ore prices are firm. Scrap steel has a weak supply - demand situation, and its spot price is expected to fluctuate with finished products in the short term [1] 2. Carbon Element - After the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, steel mills are still actively producing, and coke demand is still supported. However, cost support has weakened. After four rounds of price increases, coke is in a dilemma of rising or falling, and its futures price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal. Coking coal supply is expected to remain weak. Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level but with limited replenishment. Although downstream procurement is gradually slowing down, the fundamentals are still healthy, and spot coal prices are strongly supported. However, the futures price is still suppressed by finished products, and the warehouse receipt pressure is still large, with a small possibility of further significant decline [2] 3. Alloys - In the short term, the firm cost supports the price of ferromanganese silicon, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. The firm cost also supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, and the price has insufficient upward driving force. It is expected to run around the cost at a low level [2] 4. Glass and Soda Ash - Supply still has disturbance expectations, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, high inventories will always suppress prices, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Otherwise, prices will rise. The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, with obvious bottom support. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the decline in glass prices has dragged down soda ash prices, which are expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline, promoting capacity reduction [2] 5. Specific Product Analysis Steel - The spot market trading is weak, mainly with low - price transactions. Steel mill profits are poor, and production has decreased significantly. Construction site funds have increased slightly, and demand shows some resilience after the off - season decline. Steel inventories are still higher than the same period last year, and there are still fundamental contradictions. It is expected to oscillate widely [7][9] Iron Ore - Port trading volume has increased. Spot prices are oscillating. Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the arrival volume has decreased. Hot metal is expected to be supported in the short term, but there is a seasonal weakening expectation. Inventories are expected to accumulate. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [7][9] Scrap Steel - Supply and demand are both weak. After the price decline, the cost - performance ratio has recovered, and the downward space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate with finished products [8] Coke - The futures price is under pressure and oscillating. The spot price is stable. Supply is temporarily stable, and demand is still supported. Inventories are low. It is expected to follow coking coal to oscillate [8][11][12] Coking Coal - The market sentiment is poor, and the futures price is under pressure and oscillating. Supply recovery is slow, and imports are at a high level but with limited replenishment. The fundamentals are healthy, and the spot price is strongly supported. The futures price is suppressed by finished products, and the warehouse receipt pressure is large. It is less likely to fall significantly, and attention can be paid to the winter storage situation in the industrial chain [13] Glass - Macro is neutral. Supply is expected to decline due to possible cold repair at the end of the year. Demand is weak, and mid - and downstream inventories are high, suppressing the price. If there is no more cold repair, it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13] Soda Ash - Macro is neutral. Production has decreased due to maintenance. Demand is weakening. The cost has increased, with obvious bottom support. The supply - demand surplus suppresses price increases. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long run [14] Ferromanganese Silicon - The futures price has declined due to the weakening of coking coal and coke. The spot price is stable. The cost is supported, but the supply - demand is loose, and the upward pressure is large. It is expected to run around the cost at a low level [17] Ferrosilicon - The futures price is oscillating at a low level. The spot market trading is average. The cost is supported, but the supply - demand is loose, and the upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to run around the cost at a low level [18]