Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on August 27, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferroalloy natural lump is 5350 yuan, with a daily increase of 50 yuan and a weekly decrease of 50 yuan; the factory - price converted to the futures market is 5650 yuan. The price of Inner Mongolia 72 is 5350 yuan, with a daily increase of 50 yuan and a weekly decrease of 50 yuan, and the factory - price converted to the futures market is 5700 yuan. The export price of Tianjin 72 silicon ferroalloy is 1055 US dollars, with a weekly increase of 30 US dollars [2]. - For silicon manganese on August 27, 2025, the factory - price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese is 5750 yuan, with a weekly decrease of 50 yuan, and the factory - price converted to the futures market is 6050 yuan; the price of Ningxia 6517 is 5620 yuan, with a weekly decrease of 210 yuan, and the factory - price converted to the futures market is 6020 yuan [2]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy production enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly production, weekly production (with a capacity share of 95%), and capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - The production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are also provided, including weekly production and the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group [6]. Demand - The demand data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are shown, such as the demand volume of silicon manganese (in ten thousand tons, according to the Steel Union's caliber), and the procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese [4][6][7]. Inventory - The inventory data of 60 sample enterprises of silicon ferroalloy in China from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including weekly inventory in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, as well as the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [5]. - The inventory data of silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, the sum of warehouse receipts and effective inventory, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China (in tons, weekly) [7]. Cost and Profit - The cost and profit data of silicon ferroalloy from 2021 - 2025 are shown, including electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - coke, the production cost in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the profit converted to the main futures contract and the spot profit in Ningxia [5]. - The cost and profit data of silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including the profit in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions (according to the Steel Union's caliber), and the profit of Guangxi silicon manganese converted to the main futures contract [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market cooled yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products declined slightly. The demand for finished steel products is clearly weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weak characteristics of the market are becoming more prominent. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively improved, the prices may continue to decline. [3] - The supply and demand contradictions of iron ore are not prominent for the moment, and its price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent shipping progress and the impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. [6] - The prices of ferrous alloys have dropped rapidly. In the short - term, it is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities. The fundamental problems of over - supply in the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron industries remain. [7][8][9] - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 8300 - 9300 yuan/ton. Polysilicon continues the pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation" and is expected to have high - volatility. [12][13][14] - The price of glass is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and the price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price of soda ash may gradually rise, but the increase is limited. [16][17] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3113 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.79%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3367 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.64%) from the previous trading day. [2] - **Market Analysis**: The export volume of steel increased slightly this week but remained in a weak and volatile pattern. The output of rebar decreased significantly this week, demand improved slightly but remained weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coils continued to rise, production increased rapidly, and inventory increased for six consecutive weeks. [3] Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 776.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.33% (-10.50), and the position changed to 45.29 million hands. The weighted position was 80.85 million hands. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 41.52 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.08%. [5] - **Market Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipping was stable. Australian shipping increased, Brazilian shipping decreased, and non - mainstream shipping decreased slightly. The recent arrival volume decreased. The daily average pig iron output was basically flat, the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline, port inventory increased slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventory decreased slightly. [6] Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Price and Position Data**: On August 26, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.61% at 5862 yuan/ton, and the main contract of silicon iron (SF511) closed down 0.42% at 5656 yuan/ton. [7] - **Market Analysis**: The prices of ferrous alloys dropped rapidly due to the weakening of the "anti - involution" sentiment. The over - supply situation of manganese silicon remained unchanged, and production continued to rise. There were no obvious fundamental contradictions in silicon iron, and supply also continued to increase. [8][9] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 8515 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.84% (-160). The weighted contract position changed to 526046 hands. [11] - **Market Analysis**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand of industrial silicon remained. Production continued to rise, and the support from the demand side was limited. It was expected to fluctuate between 8300 - 9300 yuan/ton. [12] - **Polysilicon** - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 50985 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.15% (-595). The weighted contract position changed to 320439 hands. [13] - **Market Analysis**: Polysilicon continued the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. Production continued to increase, and the number of warehouse receipts increased rapidly. It was expected to have high - volatility. [14] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price in Shahe was 1138 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price in Central China was 1070 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day. As of August 21, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.606 million heavy boxes, up 180,000 heavy boxes (0.28%) from the previous period. [16] - **Market Analysis**: The production of glass remained high, inventory pressure increased slightly, and downstream real - estate demand did not improve significantly. The price adjustment space was limited, and the market expected policy support. It was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. [16] - **Soda Ash** - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of soda ash was 1200 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day. As of August 25, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8881 million tons, down 22,700 tons (1.19%) from last Thursday. [17] - **Market Analysis**: The price of soda ash fluctuated with the coal - chemical sector. The downstream demand was difficult to improve quickly, and the price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term and gradually rise in the long - term, but the increase was limited. [17]

Report Title - The report is titled "Iron Alloy Morning Report" [1] Report Date - The report date is August 26, 2025 [2] Price Summary Silicon Ferrosilicon - Spot prices vary by region and grade. For example, the latest price of 72 silicon ferrosilicon in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia is 5300 yuan/ton, with daily changes of 0 and weekly changes of -180 and -150 respectively. The export price of 72 silicon ferrosilicon in Tianjin is 1055 US dollars, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 30 [2] - Futures prices also show different trends. The latest price of the main contract is 5680 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 38 and a weekly change of -200 [2] Silicon Manganese - Spot prices of silicon manganese also vary by region. The latest price of 6517 silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia is 5750 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -70. The main contract price is 5898 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 66 and a weekly change of -128 [2] Supply Summary Silicon Ferrosilicon - The production data of 136 silicon ferrosilicon enterprises in China shows the monthly and weekly production trends from 2021 to 2025. The production capacity utilization rate of 136 silicon ferrosilicon production enterprises in Inner Mongolia also shows different trends over the years [5] Silicon Manganese - The weekly production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 to 2025 is presented, as well as the annual trends of the procurement price and quantity of 6517 silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group [7] Demand Summary Silicon Ferrosilicon - The demand - related data includes the production of crude steel in China, the production of metal magnesium, the production of stainless - steel crude steel, and the procurement volume of FeSi75 - B by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, which reflect the demand for silicon ferrosilicon in different industries [5] Silicon Manganese - The demand for silicon manganese in China is measured by the steel - linked caliber, and the data shows the demand trends from 2021 to 2025. The production of crude steel also affects the demand for silicon manganese [5][8] Inventory Summary Silicon Ferrosilicon - The inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China shows the weekly inventory trends from 2021 to 2025. The inventory data also includes the inventory in different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi. The warehouse receipt and effective forecast data are also presented [6] Silicon Manganese - The inventory - related data includes the total number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective inventory of silicon manganese on the CZCE. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China and the average available days of inventory in China are also shown [8] Cost and Profit Summary Silicon Ferrosilicon - The cost - related data includes electricity prices in different regions such as Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia. The production cost, profit from converting to the main contract, and spot profit of silicon ferrosilicon in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia are also presented [6] Silicon Manganese - The profit data of silicon manganese in different regions such as Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region are presented, measured by the steel - linked caliber. The profit from converting Guangxi silicon manganese to the main contract and the profit from converting Ningxia silicon manganese to the contract are also shown [8]

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a black metal research report from the Commodity Research Institute, dated August 26, 2025 [1][2] - The researcher is Zhou Tao, with a futures practice certificate number F03134259 and an investment consulting certificate number Z0021009 [3] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF主力合约 closed at 5656, down 24 for the day and 22 for the week, with a trading volume of 158,229 (down 42,351) and an open interest of 224,602 (down 4,847) [4] - SM主力合约 closed at 5862, down 36 for the day and 52 for the week, with a trading volume of 165,527 (down 61,753) and an open interest of 299,744 (down 683) [4] Spot - For silicon iron, 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5420, up 50 for the day and down 80 for the week; in Ningxia, it was 5450, up 70 for the day and down 50 for the week; in Qinghai, it was 5400, unchanged for the day and down 100 for the week; in Jiangsu, it was 5600, unchanged for the day and down 50 for the week; in Tianjin, it was 5880, unchanged for the day and down 50 for the week [4] - For silicon - manganese, silicon manganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5750, unchanged for the day and down 50 for the week; in Ningxia, it was 5620, unchanged for the day and down 210 for the week; in Guangxi, it was 5780, unchanged for the day and down 90 for the week; in Jiangsu, it was 5800, unchanged for the day and down 100 for the week; in Tianjin, it was 5700, unchanged for the day and down 100 for the week [4] Basis/Spread - For silicon iron, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 236, up 74 for the day and down 58 for the week; the Ningxia - main contract basis was - 206, up 94 for the day and down 28 for the week; the Qinghai - main contract basis was - 256, up 24 for the day and down 78 for the week; the Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia spread was 180, down 50 for the day and up 30 for the week; the SF - SM spread was - 206, up 12 for the day and up 30 for the week [4] - For silicon - manganese, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 112, up 36 for the day and up 2 for the week; the Ningxia - main contract basis was - 242, up 36 for the day and down 158 for the week; the Guangxi - main contract basis was - 82, up 36 for the day and down 38 for the week; the Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread was 30, unchanged for the day and down 40 for the week [4] Raw Materials - For manganese ore in Tianjin, Australian lump was priced at 40.5, unchanged for the day and the week; South African semi - carbonate was 34, unchanged for the day and down 0.7 for the week; Gabon lump was 39.5, unchanged for the day and down 0.5 for the week [4] - For blue charcoal small pieces, in Shaanxi, it was 650, unchanged for the day and up 20 for the week; in Ningxia, it was 685, unchanged for the day and the week; in Inner Mongolia, it was 630, unchanged for the day and the week [4] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - On August 26, ferroalloy futures prices declined slightly. The silicon iron main contract closed at 5656, down 0.42%, with an open interest decrease of 4847 lots; the manganese silicon main contract closed at 5862, down 0.61%, with an open interest decrease of 683 lots [8] - For silicon iron, on the 26th, spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend, rising 50 - 70 yuan/ton in some regions. On the supply side, last week's output growth slowed down. On the demand side, sample steel output remained high, supporting raw material demand. The sharp decline in coking coal futures dragged down the overall black metal, but silicon iron had adjusted earlier. Now the futures price is close to the cost in some production areas, and the high - premium risk has been largely released, so it will mainly fluctuate at the bottom recently [8] - For manganese silicon, on the 26th, both manganese ore and manganese silicon spot prices were stable. On the supply side, the output growth of alloy plants also slowed down last week. On the demand side, the sample apparent demand for rebar increased slightly, not showing a downward trend yet. On the cost side, manganese ore port spot prices were stable, supporting manganese silicon. The sharp decline in coking coal futures on the 26th dragged down the overall black metal, but the high - premium risk of manganese silicon at the current price has been largely released, so it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [8] - Unilateral: Futures prices are close to the cost in some production areas, and the high - premium risk has been largely released. It will mainly fluctuate at the bottom recently [9] - Arbitrage: Gradually take profit on cash - and - carry arbitrage [9] - Options: Sell straddle option combinations on rallies [9] Important Information - On the 26th, the price of semi - carbonate Mn36.5% at Tianjin Port was 34.5 yuan/ton degree, Gabon lump Mn46% was 39.8 yuan/ton degree, and Australian lump Mn46% was 42 yuan/ton degree [10] - Rwood Resources FZE announced the CIF offer price of Ivorian manganese ore for shipments to China before September 20, 2025, with a typical Mn content of 34 - 35% at 4.3 US dollars/ton degree [10] Group 4: Related Attachments Cost and Profit - For silicon iron, in Qinghai, the production cost was 5457 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 157 yuan/ton; in Gansu, the production cost was 5609 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 309 yuan/ton [20] - For silicon manganese, in Inner Mongolia, the production cost was 5831 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 81 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the production cost was 5939 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 339 yuan/ton; in Guangxi, the production cost was 6424 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 624 yuan/ton; in Guizhou, the production cost was 6168 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 418 yuan/ton [25] Electricity Price - Ferroalloy electricity prices in different regions: in Gansu, it was 0.4 yuan/kWh today; in Guangxi, 0.515 yuan/kWh; in Guizhou, 0.475 yuan/kWh; in Hunan, 0.5 yuan/kWh; in Inner Mongolia, 0.42 yuan/kWh; in Ningxia, 0.38 yuan/kWh; in Qinghai, 0.375 yuan/kWh; in Shanxi, 0.51 yuan/kWh; in Shaanxi, 0.425 yuan/kWh; in Sichuan, 0.435 yuan/kWh; in Yunnan, 0.37 yuan/kWh [19]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a black metal research report by the Commodity Research Institute, dated August 26, 2025 [3][6] - The researchers are Zhou Tao, Ding Zuchao, and Qi Chunyi [3] Group 2: Steel Related Information - The central government plans to strengthen the national carbon market by 2027 and form a carbon pricing mechanism by 2030 [3] - As of July, the national power generation capacity was 36.7 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power growing rapidly [3] - On August 25, the average cost of 76 independent EAF construction steel mills was 3347 yuan/ton, with an average loss of 99 yuan/ton and a valley electricity profit of 1 yuan/ton [3] - Spot prices in Shanghai and Beijing increased, with Shanghai rebar at 3310 yuan (+320), Beijing rebar at 3250 (+10), Shanghai hot-rolled coil at 3430 yuan (+30), and Tianjin hot-rolled coil at 3380 yuan (+20) [4] Logical Analysis - The black - plate oscillated weakly on the night of August 23. Construction steel sales on the 25th were 11110 tons [5] - Steel production resumed last week, with rebar production decreasing and hot - rolled coil increasing. The five major steel products accumulated inventory, but the speed slowed down [5] - Steel exports remained strong, and hot - rolled apparent demand was high. Building material demand rebounded from the bottom [5] - Steel demand improved, iron - water production remained high, and exports were strong, supporting steel prices [5] - As the parade approaches, iron - water production is expected to decrease next week, relieving supply pressure [5] - A coal mine accident in Fujian increased the expectation of coal mine production cuts, supporting pre - parade steel prices [5] - After August, coal consumption will decline, and if the coal mine production cut expectation fails, post - parade steel prices may face pressure [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Steel prices will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [7] - Arbitrage: Close profitable long - short positions [8] - Options: Wait and see [9] Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Related Information - Henan coke enterprises will limit production by 20 - 35% from August 25 to September 3, and some have already implemented a 30 - 35% limit [10] - The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton [10][17] Logical Analysis - Coking coal prices fluctuated, and downstream procurement enthusiasm weakened. Coke supply and demand were in a tight balance, and mainstream coke enterprises planned an eighth price increase [12] - National coal mine safety work is expected to be stricter, which will affect coal supply and gradually increase the coking coal price center [12] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Oscillate strongly. Buy on dips [13] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [13] - Options: Wait and see [13] - Spot - futures: Wait and see [13] Group 4: Iron Ore Related Information - Shanghai optimized real - estate policies, including relaxed purchase restrictions and tax exemptions [14] - The National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment [14] - From August 18 - 24, global iron ore shipments were 3315800 tons, a decrease of 90800 tons. Australia and Brazil shipments increased by 4400 tons [14] - Qingdao Port PB powder spot was 780 yuan (+13), and the 01 iron ore main contract basis was 36 [14] Logical Analysis - Iron ore prices fell slightly at night, and market sentiment was volatile [15] - In the past month, mainstream mine shipments increased year - on - year, with Australia flat and Brazil growing rapidly. Non - mainstream mine shipments were high in August [15] - In July, manufacturing and infrastructure investment growth slowed down. Manufacturing steel demand growth weakened, suppressing terminal steel demand [15] Trading Strategies - The report does not provide specific trading strategies for iron ore, only indicating that the above views are for reference only [16] Group 5: Ferroalloys Related Information - The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton [17] - Shanghai optimized real - estate policies, including relaxed purchase restrictions [17] Logical Analysis - On the 25th, ferrosilicon spot prices were weak, with some areas up 50 yuan/ton. Last week's production growth slowed down, and futures prices were close to production costs after a sharp decline [18][20] - On the 25th, manganese ore spot prices were weak, and manganese - silicon spot prices were strong, with some areas up 70 yuan/ton. Production growth slowed down, and demand showed no downward trend [20] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Futures prices are close to production costs, and high - premium risks have been released. Expect bottom - oscillating [21] - Arbitrage: Gradually take profits on spot - futures long positions [21] - Options: Sell straddle option combinations at high prices [21]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report Silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy are experiencing wide - amplitude fluctuations driven by sector sentiment [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of silicon ferroalloy 2511 and 2601 are 5680 and 5662 respectively, with changes of 38 and 46 compared to the previous trading day. The closing prices of manganese ferroalloy 2511 and 2601 are 5882 and 5898 respectively, with changes of 62 and 66 compared to the previous trading day. The trading volumes and open interests of different contracts are also provided [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5300 yuan/ton, silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5750 yuan/ton, manganese ore Mn44 block is 39.5 yuan/ton - degree, and semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: The silicon ferroalloy spot - 11 futures spread is - 380 yuan/ton, and the manganese ferroalloy spot - 01 futures spread is - 148 yuan/ton. The silicon ferroalloy 2511 - 2601 spread is 18 yuan/ton, and the manganese ferroalloy 2511 - 2601 spread is - 16 yuan/ton. The manganese ferroalloy 2511 - silicon ferroalloy 2511 spread is 202 yuan/ton, and the manganese ferroalloy 2601 - silicon ferroalloy 2601 spread is 236 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy Price News**: On August 25, the price ranges of 72 and 75 silicon ferroalloy in different regions are provided, and the FOB prices of 72 and 75 silicon ferroalloy are 1030 - 1050 and 1100 - 1130 US dollars/ton respectively. The northern and southern prices of silicon manganese 6517 are also reported [2]. - **Manganese Ore Inventory News**: As of August 22, the manganese ore inventory in Tianjin Port is 361.28 million tons, a decrease of 6.36 million tons compared to the previous period; the inventory in Qinzhou Port is 77.25 million tons, an increase of 1.64 million tons; the inventory in Caofeidian Port is 0; the inventory in Fangchenggang is 4 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons. The total manganese ore inventory is 442.53 million tons, a decrease of 5.72 million tons [2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of silicon ferroalloy is 0, and that of manganese ferroalloy is 0, indicating a neutral view [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore: The macro risk appetite has not significantly declined, and there is still support [2][5]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and prices are in wide - range oscillations [2][9][10]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Driven by sector sentiment, prices are in wide - range oscillations [2][13]. - Coke and coking coal: Prices are in wide - range oscillations [2][16]. - Logs: Prices are fluctuating repeatedly [2][18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental data**: The futures price closed at 787.0 yuan/ton, up 17.0 yuan/ton or 2.21%. The I2601 contract had a position of 464,830 lots, an increase of 12,205 lots. Among spot prices, imported ore prices generally rose by 13 yuan/ton, while domestic ore prices in some areas decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads showed certain changes [6]. - **Macro and industry news**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market", involving six adjustments such as reducing purchase restrictions, housing provident funds, housing credit, and property tax [6]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of iron ore is 1 [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental data**: The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,138 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 0.71%, with a trading volume of 1,200,313 lots and a position of 1,347,830 lots, a decrease of 63,773 lots. The HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,389 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton or 0.92%. Spot prices in various regions generally increased. The basis and spreads also changed [10]. - **Macro and industry news**: On August 21, steel output, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different trends. In mid - August 2025, the output and inventory of key steel enterprises changed. The manufacturing supply index in July decreased. The national general public budget revenue from January to July increased slightly [11][12]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of rebar is 0, and that of hot - rolled coil is 0 [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental data**: Futures prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese had varying increases. Spot prices of related products were provided. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads showed certain changes [13]. - **Macro and industry news**: On August 25, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. As of August 22, the manganese ore inventory in ports changed [14]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of ferrosilicon is 0, and that of silicomanganese is 0 [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental data**: The JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,215.5 yuan/ton, up 53.5 yuan/ton or 4.6%. The J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,736 yuan/ton, up 57.5 yuan/ton or 3.4%. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in some areas remained unchanged, while others changed. The basis and spreads also changed [16]. - **Macro and industry news**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market", involving six adjustments such as reducing purchase restrictions, housing provident funds, housing credit, and property tax [16]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 0 [17]. Logs - **Fundamental data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts of logs showed different trends. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained mostly unchanged. The basis and spreads also had certain changes [19]. - **Macro and industry news**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market", involving six adjustments such as reducing purchase restrictions, housing provident funds, housing credit, and property tax [21]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of logs is 1 [21].

Group 1: Market Information - SF主力合约收盘价5680，日变动38，周变动 -200，成交量200580，日变化53577，持仓量227550，日变化 -2948；SM主力合约收盘价5898，日变动66，周变动 -128，成交量227280，日变化42416，持仓量300427，日变化 -2245 [4] - 72%FeSi内蒙现货价格5370，日变动0，周变动 -180；72%FeSi宁夏现货价格5380，日变动0，周变动 -220等；硅锰6517内蒙现货价格5750，日变动0，周变动 -70；硅锰6517宁夏现货价格5620，日变动70，周变动 -230等 [4] - 硅铁内蒙 - 主力基差 -310，日变动 -38，周变动20；锰硅内蒙 - 主力基差 -148，日变动 -66，周变动58等；SF - SM价差 -218，日变动 -28，周变动 -72 [4] - 锰矿（天津）澳块当日40.5，日变动0，周变动 -0.2；南非半碳酸当日34，日变动 -0.5，周变动 -0.8等；兰炭小料陕西当日650，日变动20，周变动20；宁夏当日685，日变动0，周变动0等 [4] Group 2: Market Analysis - 8月25日，铁合金期货价格小幅上涨，硅铁主力合约收盘5680，上涨0.67%，持仓减少2948手；锰硅主力合约收盘5898，上涨1.13%，持仓减少2245手 [6] - 硅铁25日现货价格稳中偏弱，部分区域现货上涨50元/吨；供应端上周产量继续小幅增加，但增幅放缓；需求端样本钢材产量维持高位，对原料需求有支撑；期货价格临近部分产区成本，高升水风险大幅释放，近期底部震荡为主 [6] - 锰硅25日锰矿现货稳中偏弱，天津港半碳酸下跌0.5元/吨度，锰硅现货稳中偏强，部分区域现货上涨70元/吨；供应端上周产量增幅放缓；需求端螺纹样本表需小幅回升，未形成下行趋势；当前价格下高升水风险大幅释放，预计底部震荡为主 [6] Group 3: Trading Strategies - 单边：期货价格临近部分产区成本，高升水风险大幅释放，近期底部震荡为主 [7] - 套利：期现正套逐步止盈 [7] - 期权：逢高卖出跨式期权组合 [7] Group 4: Important Information - Mysteel煤焦：邢台市场焦炭价格计划提涨，捣固湿熄焦上调50元/吨、捣固干熄焦上调55元/吨，调整后捣固准一干熄报价1675元/吨，出厂价现金含税，自8月26日0时起执行 [8] - 上海6部门联合印发《关于优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通知》，明确进一步调减住房限购政策，符合条件居民家庭在外环外购房不限套数，成年单身人士按居民家庭执行住房限购政策 [8] Group 5: Cost and Profit - 硅铁青海生产成本5457元/吨，利润 -157元/吨；甘肃生产成本5609元/吨，利润 -309元/吨 [16] - 硅锰内蒙生产成本5831元/吨，利润 -81元/吨；宁夏生产成本5939元/吨，利润 -339元/吨等 [21]

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Black Industry Chain [1] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [2] - Report Provider: Huabao Futures [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **Overall Market**: The black market is facing a complex situation with various factors influencing different segments. The market is affected by factors such as supply and demand dynamics, macro - policies, and the approaching 9.3 parade, which may lead to production restrictions [9][10]. - **Steel Products**: The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices likely to fluctuate and trend downward in the short term [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore is expected to be stronger this week, influenced by macro factors. The supply - demand relationship has shifted from tight to balanced, and the price is expected to trade in the range of 775 - 810 yuan/ton for the main contract [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are likely to experience increased volatility. Overseas interest - rate cut expectations and domestic environmental protection policies are key influencing factors [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: Ferroalloy prices are expected to follow the black market trend and trade in a range, with supply increasing slightly and demand remaining resilient but not strongly driving prices [12]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Most futures and spot prices of black products declined last week. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2510 dropped from 3188 to 3119 yuan/ton (-2.16%), and the spot price of HRB400E Φ20 in Shanghai decreased from 3320 to 3280 yuan/ton (-1.20%) [7]. 02. This Week's Black Market Forecast Steel Products - **Logic**: The utilization rate of blast - furnace iron - making capacity increased slightly, while the profitability rate of steel mills decreased. The demand for finished steel products is weak, and the approaching parade may affect both supply and demand. The decline in coking coal and coke prices also contributed to the steel price adjustment [9]. - **Viewpoint**: The price of steel products is expected to be volatile and trend downward in the short term [9]. - **Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [9]. Iron Ore - **Logic**: The supply of iron ore has increased more than expected, with Australian and Brazilian shipments rising. The demand is still resilient but with a weakening support. The inventory is expected to remain stable or increase slightly [10]. - **Viewpoint**: The price of iron ore is expected to be stronger this week, trading in the range of 775 - 810 yuan/ton for the main contract [10]. - **Concerns**: Parade - related production - restriction policies, Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and supply growth rate [10]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Logic**: Coking coal prices were volatile last week, affected by a coal - mine accident and Fed's dovish remarks. Coke completed the 7th round of price increase. Environmental protection policies may lead to production restrictions in steel mills [11]. - **Viewpoint**: The prices of coking coal and coke are likely to be more volatile, with short - term demand showing a downward trend [11]. - **Concerns**: Implementation of environmental protection policies, coal production, steel - mill iron - water output, and import - coal customs clearance [11]. Ferroalloys - **Logic**: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations have increased. The supply of ferroalloys has increased slightly, while the demand has decreased slightly. The inventory has decreased, and the cost support is different for different alloys [12]. - **Viewpoint**: Ferroalloy prices are expected to follow the black market trend and trade in a range [12]. - **Concerns**: Tariff policies, domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel - mill profitability, and domestic production - restriction policies [12]. 03. Variety Data Steel Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the production was 214.65 tons (down 5.8 tons week - on - week), and the apparent demand was 194.8 tons (up 4.86 tons week - on - week). The total inventory increased by 19.85 tons to 607.04 tons [14][22]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The production was 325.24 tons (up 9.65 tons week - on - week), and the apparent demand was 321.27 tons (up 6.52 tons week - on - week). The total inventory increased by 3.97 tons to 361.44 tons [28][32]. Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: The total port inventory of imported iron ore was 13845.20 tons (up 25.93 tons week - on - week), with the Australian ore inventory at 6114.03 tons (down 13.50 tons week - on - week) and the Brazilian ore inventory at 4996.89 tons (up 56.05 tons week - on - week) [45]. - **Steel - Mill Inventory**: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 9065.47 tons (down 70.93 tons week - on - week), and the daily consumption was 297.84 tons/day (down 0.68 tons/day week - on - week) [55]. - **Global Shipment**: The total global shipment was 3406.6 tons (up 359.9 tons week - on - week), with Australian and Brazilian shipments to the world at 2669.7 tons (up 242.0 tons week - on - week) [70]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory was 888.62 tons (up 1.21 tons week - on - week), and the total coking coal inventory was 2610.599 tons (up 17.7 tons week - on - week) [96][103]. - **Profitability and Production**: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coke enterprises was 23 yuan (up 3 yuan week - on - week), and the daily production of 523 coking coal mines was 77.1 tons (up 0.7 tons week - on - week) [111][112]. Ferroalloys - **Spot Price**: The spot price of manganese ore in Tianjin Port (Mn36% semi - carbonate manganese block from South Africa) was 34 yuan/dry - ton degree (down 0.8 yuan week - on - week), the spot price of ferromanganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5750 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan week - on - week), and the spot price of ferrosilicon 72 in Inner Mongolia was 5300 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan week - on - week) [127]. - **Production and Demand**: The weekly production of silicomanganese (187 independent enterprises) was 211190 tons (up 4130 tons week - on - week), and the weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel products decreased by 0.08% week - on - week [133][139]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 156000 tons (down 2800 tons week - on - week), and the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 62080 tons (down 3100 tons week - on - week) [143].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document about the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The macro - environment is generally favorable for commodities. Overseas, Powell's dovish signal strengthens the market's interest - rate cut expectation, and the July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI exceeds expectations. Domestically, although the July domestic demand data is still weak, the market's pessimistic expectation of deflation has changed. However, the fundamentals of both raw materials and finished products are weakening, which suppresses the upward movement of the market. Overall, the steel market is expected to show a range - bound pattern [3]. - The supply of iron ore first increases and then stabilizes. The high demand for hot metal is maintained, but the downstream terminal demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the premium retracement supports the iron ore price. In the short term, the iron ore price is expected to be mainly range - bound [18]. - The details of the "anti - involution" policy need time to be introduced, and the macro - sentiment may fluctuate. The far - month production of coking coal may be restricted by over - production inspections and the 276 - working - day policy. The current main contract has a large open interest, and the long - short game is intense. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished product demand in the peak season, the production changes of coking coal mines, and the implementation effect of macro - policies [30]. - Driven by profit, the production of ferroalloys is gradually increasing, reaching a high level in the same period of the past five years, with great supply pressure. With the production restrictions on some steel mills before the parade and no obvious improvement in demand, the ferroalloy inventory may change from destocking to stocking. The price of ferroalloys is affected by the price of coking coal, and in the long - term, the valuation trend of coking coal is upward, but the short - term fluctuation is intense [48]. - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and normal maintenance continues. The demand for soda ash is expected to be weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory continues to reach a new high. The cost of raw salt and coal has increased. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand for soda ash remains unchanged [57]. - The near - end trading of glass returns to the industry. After Hubei reduces the price, the production and sales situation improves. The policy expectation fluctuates, and the market sentiment also fluctuates. The supply of glass is stable, and the cumulative apparent demand from January to August is estimated to decline by 7%. The mid - stream inventory is at a high level, and the spot negative feedback continues. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [83]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Macro and Fundamental Analysis**: Overseas macro - drivers are upward, and domestic deflation pessimism has changed. However, steel has a high - supply pressure with super - seasonal inventory accumulation. Raw material fundamentals are weakening, but the overall inventory of finished products is not high, and the total demand is acceptable. The market is expected to be range - bound [3]. - **Price Data**: On August 25, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3224, 3261, and 3138 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3377, 3388, and 3389 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The rebar summary price in China on August 25, 2025, was 3354 yuan/ton, and the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 86 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3430 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 53 yuan/ton [8]. Iron Ore - **Supply - Demand and Price Outlook**: Supply first increases and then stabilizes, demand for hot metal is high but terminal demand is weak with inventory accumulation. Coking coal supply supports the price. In the short term, the price is expected to be range - bound [18]. - **Price Data**: On August 25, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 787, 763, and 806.5 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Rizhao PB powder was 780 yuan/ton [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: On August 22, 2025, the daily average hot - metal output was 240.75 tons, the 45 - port port clearance volume was 325.74 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 13845.2 tons [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The "anti - involution" policy details are pending, and the macro - sentiment may fluctuate. The far - month production of coking coal may be restricted. The main contract has a large open interest, and the long - short game is intense. Attention should be paid to multiple factors [30]. - **Price and Basis Data**: On August 25, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost in Tangshan (Meng 5) was 1128 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis was - 88 yuan/ton. The coke warehouse - receipt cost in Rizhao Port (wet - quenched) was 1616 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis was - 120.4 yuan/ton [35]. - **Spot Price and Profit**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1470 yuan/ton, and the immediate coking profit was 397 yuan/ton [36]. Ferroalloys - **Market Situation**: Driven by profit, production is increasing, with high supply pressure. With production restrictions on steel mills and no obvious demand improvement, inventory may change from destocking to stocking. The price is affected by coking coal [48]. - **Data of Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: On August 25, 2025, the ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia was 8 yuan/ton, and the ferromanganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 268 yuan/ton [49][51]. Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Supply is expected to remain high, demand is weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory is at a new high. The cost of raw salt and coal has increased, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [57]. - **Price Data**: On August 25, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1393 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread was 167 yuan/ton [58]. - **Spot Price**: The heavy - soda market price in North China was 1350 yuan/ton, and the heavy - soda to light - soda price difference was 100 yuan/ton [62]. Glass - **Market Analysis**: The near - end trading returns to the industry. After Hubei reduces the price, production and sales improve. Policy expectations and market sentiment fluctuate. Supply is stable, and the cumulative apparent demand from January to August is estimated to decline by 7%. The mid - stream inventory is high, and the spot negative feedback continues [83]. - **Price and Month - Spread Data**: On August 25, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1280 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread was 281 yuan/ton [84]. - **Production and Sales Data**: On August 24, 2025, the production and sales rate in Shahe was 110%, and in Hubei was 131% [85].