1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures opened high and closed low on the first trading day after the holiday, with the rebar 2510 contract closing at 3077 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 92,500 lots. Spot prices were stable with a slight decline, and trading volume fell. Given the challenges in steel exports and the transition of terminal demand from peak to off - peak season in May, the market supply - demand may face weakening pressure. It is expected that the rebar futures will continue to trade in a low - level consolidation range [1]. - Iron Ore: The main contract i2509 of iron ore futures showed a volatile trend, closing at 704.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. With a decrease in Australian shipments due to berth maintenance and an increase in shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream countries, high iron - making output, and an increase in port inventory, the iron ore futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range, and attention should be paid to information on crude steel production cuts [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures declined, with the 2509 contract closing at 911.5 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 2.04% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 25,843 lots. The coking coal market is weak. Although short - term demand is good due to the increase in iron - making output, the weak performance of finished steel prices and inventory de - stocking difficulties make market participants cautious. It is expected that the coking coal futures will trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - Coke: The coke futures declined, with the 2509 contract closing at 1502 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton or 2.34% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 4,825 lots. Spot prices fell. With high coke production and demand, but high inventory in steel mills and weak market confidence, the coke futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - Manganese Silicon: On Tuesday, the manganese silicon futures weakened, with the main contract closing at 5560 yuan/ton, down 2.76% from the previous day, hitting a new low in recent years. With a decrease in cost support and weak terminal demand, the manganese silicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and further production cuts are needed to improve the situation [3]. - Ferrosilicon: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures weakened, with the main contract closing at 5398 yuan/ton, down 3.05% from the previous day. With a decrease in cost support, higher - than - expected production in major producing areas, and weak terminal demand, the ferrosilicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts in major producing areas [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: Rebar futures opened high and closed low, with a decline in spot prices and trading volume. The decline in the April PMI index and the challenges in steel exports led to cautious market expectations. The transition of terminal demand from peak to off - peak season in May may bring weakening pressure on supply - demand. The rebar futures are expected to trade in a low - level consolidation range [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract of iron ore futures showed a volatile trend. There were changes in supply, high iron - making output, and an increase in port inventory. The iron ore futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range, and attention should be paid to information on crude steel production cuts [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures declined, with a weak spot market. Although short - term demand is good due to the increase in iron - making output, the weak performance of finished steel prices and inventory de - stocking difficulties make market participants cautious. The coking coal futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures declined, with a decline in spot prices. With high coke production and demand, but high inventory in steel mills and weak market confidence, the coke futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures weakened, hitting a new low in recent years. With a decrease in cost support and weak terminal demand, the manganese silicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and further production cuts are needed [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures weakened, hitting a new low since the second half of 2017. With a decrease in cost support, higher - than - expected production in major producing areas, and weak terminal demand, the ferrosilicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts in major producing areas [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties showed different changes, such as the 10 - 1 spread of rebar being - 32.0, down 6.0, and the 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil being 43.0, down 10.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of various varieties also changed. For example, the basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 133.0, up 9.0, and the basis of the iron ore 09 - contract was 100.4, up 0.1 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various varieties showed different trends. For example, the Shanghai rebar price was 3210.0, down 10.0, and the PB powder price at Rizhao Port was 759.0, up 1.0 [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profits and spreads of various varieties changed. For example, the rebar futures profit was 120.6, down 2.7, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 119.0, up 11.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the historical closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][10][11][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the historical basis of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical spreads of different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][28][30][32][34][35][38]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical spreads between different varieties, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, and the ratio of rebar to coke [40][41][42]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts show the historical profits of rebar futures, long - process production, and short - process production from 2020 to 2025 [45][46][48][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, he has won many industry awards [51]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many industry awards [51]. - **Liu Xi**: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [51]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and futures - cash trading, and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam [52].

| 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 3109 | -13 | 热卷01 | 3224 | -8 | | 螺纹05 | 3031 | -29 | 热卷05 | 3181 | 2 | | 螺纹10 | 3077 | -19 | 热卷10 | 3196 | -8 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 2940 | 0 | 张家港废钢 | 2120 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3190 | 0 | 热卷:天津 | 3210 | 0 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3210 | -10 | 热卷:上海 | 3240 | 0 | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3210 | -10 | 热卷:杭州 | 3260 | 0 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3430 | -20 | 热卷:广州 | 3300 | 20 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3350 | 0 | 热卷：成都 | 3420 | 0 | | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Today, at 9 am, a news conference will be held to introduce "a package of financial policies to support market stability and expectation management," and it is expected that a series of favorable policies will be released [7]. - The short - term trend of soybean meal is weak, but the downside space is limited. The 09 contract has priced in some negative factors, and there is still trading time left. Attention should be paid to the May USDA supply - demand report, US trade negotiations, and US soybean weather [8]. - Industrial silicon is still bearish in the short term. High inventory pressures will cause futures prices to continue to test the cost line of upstream factories, and the strategy is to short on rallies [11]. - The spot price of polysilicon is expected to decline, and the short - term trend of the futures is weak. The supply - demand pattern is weak on both sides, and the price may have a short - term rebound in mid - to late May [12]. - The trend of styrene is weak. After the May Day holiday, the prices of crude oil and pure benzene declined, and the terminal orders of styrene decreased. Attention should be paid to shorting opportunities on the futures [13]. Summaries by Directory Pre - market Insights - There will be a news conference at 9 am today by the central bank, CSRC, etc. to introduce financial policies, and favorable policies are expected to be released [7]. Recommended by the Director - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term trend is weak, but the downside space is limited. Negative factors have been priced in, and the 09 contract still has trading time. Attention should be paid to relevant events [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term bearish. High inventory, high weekly production, and weak downstream demand will lead to price declines. The strategy is to short on rallies [11]. - **Polysilicon**: Spot price is expected to decline, and the short - term futures trend is weak. The supply - demand pattern is weak on both sides, and there may be a short - term rebound in mid - to late May [12]. - **Styrene**: Trend is weak. After the holiday, the prices of crude oil and pure benzene declined, and the terminal orders decreased. Attention should be paid to shorting opportunities [13]. Commodity Research Morning Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold data is better than expected, and silver is oscillating downward. The trend intensity of gold is 1, and that of silver is - 1 [19][23]. - **Copper**: The spot price is firm, supporting the futures price. The trend intensity is 1 [25][27]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum has insufficient upward momentum, and alumina is consolidating at a low level. The trend intensity of aluminum is - 1, and that of alumina is 0 [28][30]. - **Zinc**: Oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [31][32]. - **Lead**: Under short - term pressure. The trend intensity is - 1 [34]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices are back in a narrow - range oscillation, and the downside and upside spaces are converging. The spot price of stainless steel has declined to repair the basis, and there is still support below. The trend intensity of both is 0 [36][38]. - **Tin**: The price weakened during the holiday. The trend intensity is - 1 [40][44]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The weak state of industrial silicon continues, and the fundamentals of polysilicon are still weak. The trend intensity of both is - 1 [46][48]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply - demand surplus continues, and the weak pattern may be difficult to change. The trend intensity is 0 [49][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The expectation is volatile, and the price is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [52][53]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The demand expectation is poor, and the prices are fluctuating at a low level. The trend intensity of both is 0 [56][60]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon**: The prices are dragged down by costs and are trending weakly. The trend intensity of both is - 1 [62][66]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Affected by policy expectations, the prices are oscillating at the bottom. The trend intensity of both is 0 [67][69]. - **Steam Coal**: There is a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the price is oscillating weakly. The trend intensity is 0 [70][72]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend intensity is 0 [73][74]. - **Para - Xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene is in a positive carry trade for the monthly spread, and the processing margin is expanding. The strategy for PTA is to go long PTA and short SC, and for MEG, it is to go long PTA and short MEG [76][77].

2025 年 5 月 7 日 硅铁：成本拖累价格，硅铁走势偏弱 锰硅：成本拖累价格，锰硅走势偏弱 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 1、铁合金在线：5 月 6 日硅铁 72#：陕西 5400-5450（-50），宁夏 5450-5550，青海 5450-5550， 甘肃 5550-5600，内蒙 5450-5500；75#硅铁：陕西 6000-6100，宁夏 5900-6000，青海 5950-6000 （-50），甘肃 6000-6100（-50），内蒙 5950-6050（-50）（现金含税自然块出厂，元/吨）；硅铁 FOB：72#1060-1090，75#1120-1140（美元/吨，含税）。硅锰 6517#南北主流价格在 5600-5750 元 /吨区间。（现金出厂含税报价） 2、铁合金在线：新余钢铁 4 月 30 日硅铁定价 5950 元/吨承兑，较上一轮跌 200 元/吨，量 500 吨。云 南某钢厂敲定 75B 硅铁采购价为 5950 元/吨现金，量 ...

Group 1: Iron Ore Market - Iron ore prices experienced slight fluctuations, driven by strong shipping intentions from traders and steel companies' low-price procurement ahead of the "May Day" holiday [1] - The overall demand for iron ore remains good due to high operating rates in steel mills, with port arrivals of iron ore increasing and inventory levels continuing to decline, albeit at a slower rate [1] - Despite a slight drop in iron ore futures prices, the fundamentals suggest a potential for slight upward price movement in the near term [1] Group 2: Metallurgical Coke Market - Domestic metallurgical coke prices remained stable, supported by increasing iron output and good demand for metallurgical coke [2] - Some steel companies are experiencing urgency for dry quenching first-grade metallurgical coke, but overall acceptance of price increases is low due to stable steel market conditions and unchanged profits [2] - It is expected that metallurgical coke prices will remain stable in the near term [2] Group 3: Coking Coal Market - Coking coal prices showed a downward trend, with online auction prices fluctuating and instances of unsold lots [3] - Prices for low-sulfur coking coal in Shanxi were reported at 1310 yuan/ton, while prices for gas coal in Shaanxi ranged from 840 to 870 yuan/ton [3] - Overall demand for coking coal remains supported by high operating rates in coke enterprises, with expectations of stable prices leading up to the "May Day" holiday [3] Group 4: Ferroalloy Market - Ferroalloy prices showed a stable to slightly increasing trend, with silicon iron prices remaining stable and production in major regions increasing slightly [4] - The market for silicon manganese is expected to operate steadily with a slight downward bias, as procurement prices from steel companies have decreased [4] - High-carbon ferrochrome prices are stable, with procurement prices from major companies showing a slight increase, but overall demand remains moderate [4] Group 5: Vanadium and Molybdenum Alloys - Vanadium-nitrogen alloy prices decreased by 1000 yuan/ton, while vanadium iron prices remained stable, indicating limited price fluctuation space [5] - Molybdenum iron prices increased by 8000 yuan/ton, driven by rising raw material costs and good demand from steel companies [5] - The procurement pace for molybdenum iron has slowed following price increases, with expectations of stable to slightly fluctuating prices in the near term [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For silicon iron, the latest prices of 72 silicon iron in different regions are as follows: 5500 in Ningxia, 5550 in Inner Mongolia, 5550 in Qinghai, and 5450 in Shaanxi. The prices of 6517 silicon manganese in different regions also vary, such as 5650 in Inner Mongolia, 5500 in Ningxia, etc. [1] - The closing prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese futures contracts, as well as their daily and weekly changes, are presented. For example, the silicon iron main contract is at 5590, with a daily change of -18 and a weekly change of -114. [1] - The export and import prices of silicon iron, as well as the prices of related products like silicon manganese and high - carbon ferromanganese, are shown in long - term time series charts from 2021 - 2025. [2][6] Supply - The production data of 136 silicon iron enterprises in China, including monthly and weekly production, and the capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, are provided. The monthly production of 136 silicon iron enterprises in China ranges from 60,000 to 140,000. [4] - The production data of silicon manganese in China, including weekly production and the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group, are also given. The weekly production of silicon manganese in China ranges from 5500 to 9000. [6] Demand - The demand - related data include the estimated and actual production of crude steel in China, the production of stainless - steel crude steel, the procurement volume of silicon iron by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and the demand for silicon manganese in China. The estimated monthly production of crude steel in China ranges from 6500 to 10500 (in 10,000 tons). [4][6][7] Inventory - The inventory data of silicon iron and silicon manganese are presented, including the inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China and different regions (such as Ningxia and Inner Mongolia for silicon iron), and the inventory of silicon manganese in 63 sample enterprises in China. The inventory of 60 silicon iron sample enterprises in China ranges from 0 to 150,000 (weekly). [5][7] Cost and Profit - The cost - related data involve the electricity prices in different regions (such as Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi), the market price of blue charcoal, and the prices of raw materials like manganese ore. The profit data include the production profit of blue charcoal, the profit of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions (such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi), and the export profit of 75% silicon iron. [5][7]

2025 年 5 月 6 日 硅铁：黑色板块共振，硅铁偏弱震荡 锰硅：矿端信息扰动，锰硅偏弱震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2506 | 5590 | -18 | 134,883 | 121,753 | | 期货 | 硅铁2509 | 5630 | -34 | 29,585 | 108,313 | | | 锰硅2506 | 5688 | -12 | 59,086 | 40,368 | | | 锰硅2509 | 5752 | -6 | 209,287 | 415,119 | | | 项目 | | 价格 | 较前一交易日 | 单位 | | | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | | 5550 | - | 元/吨 | | 现货 | 硅锰:FeMn65Si17 ...

铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5550 | 0 | 0 | 5850 | 主力合约 | 5608 | -40 | -58 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5550 | 0 | -50 | 5900 | 01合约 | 5708 | -52 | -76 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5550 | 0 | 0 | 5880 | 05合约 | 5588 | -32 | -116 | | | 陕西#72 | 5500 | 0 | 0 | 5830 | 09合约 | 5664 | -38 | -68 | | | 陕西#75 | 6000 | 0 | -50 | | 主力月基差 | 242 | 40 | 58 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For silicon manganese, the industry fundamentals have not improved significantly, cost - end support is insufficient, and high inventory suppresses price increases. The market may continue to seek a bottom and is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of [5600, 6000] [5] - For silicon iron, the supply - demand contradiction is gradually alleviating, the industry's production reduction progress is accelerating, but the inventory level is still relatively high. The market may continue to seek a bottom and is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of [5400, 5850] [46] 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Silicon Manganese 3.1.1 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In April, production and operating rates declined significantly. It is expected that the total silicon manganese output in April will be around 810,000 tons. Although the production decline in each production area has slowed down compared with the previous period, the daily average output in Inner Mongolia is still at a relatively high level in the same period, and the operating rate in Yunnan is also at a high level in the same period [4][18] - Demand: In April, the substantial increase in hot metal production provided rigid support for the demand for silicon manganese. However, in steel tenders, the procurement prices of mainstream steel mills decreased, and the overall price - pressing sentiment was strong. Recently, news of production cuts has disturbed the market [4] 3.1.2 Manganese Ore Overview - Price: Manganese ore prices have not stopped falling, and the decline of oxide ore is obvious. Although the inquiry enthusiasm at ports has increased recently, the overall purchasing mentality is still cautious [4] - Inventory: Port inventory has continued to rise but is still at a historically low level. The arrival volume in April increased significantly, and the floating volume at sea surged. It is expected that large ships will arrive at ports in mid - to - late May, and the inventory may return to the normal range [4] 3.1.3 Cost and Profit - The entire industry is still in a loss state, and there are still expectations for production cuts. Special attention should be paid to the production reduction progress in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. Coke's second - round price increase was blocked, and the coke price is expected to be weak. The electricity prices in the north and south production areas have decreased to varying degrees, and there is an expectation of a decrease in Ningxia's electricity price [4] 3.1.4 Market Review - In April, the silicon manganese futures price continued to decline, and the spot price followed the decline. As of April 28, 2025, the closing price of the silicon manganese 509 contract was 5804 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of 6.66% compared with the beginning of the month; the price range of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5680 - 5900 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 220 yuan/ton [6] 3.2 Silicon Iron 3.2.1 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In April, the production and operating rates decreased significantly. It is expected that the national output in April will be 430,000 - 440,000 tons. Since the end of March, news of factory production cuts and shutdowns has been continuously reported, and production area shutdowns and overhauls have gradually increased since mid - April [45] - Demand: With the repair of steel mill profits, blast furnaces have been actively restarted, and hot metal production has increased more than expected. In April, steel tenders progressed slowly, and most steel mills' tender prices decreased to varying degrees compared with the previous round. Non - steel demand remained stable, and downstream pre - holiday restocking was mainly based on demand - based procurement. The cumulative silicon iron export volume from January to March decreased significantly year - on - year [45] 3.2.2 Cost and Profit - The semi - coke market has been stable recently. The price of lump coal in the raw material end has declined, weakening the cost support for semi - coke. The overall operating rate of semi - coke enterprises is low, and they have entered the regular maintenance season, with the overall supply continuing to shrink. The price of small materials in Shaanxi has not changed significantly this month. The electricity price in Inner Mongolia was reduced by 0.015 yuan in mid - April, and there is an expectation of a decrease in Ningxia's electricity price [45] 3.2.3 Market Review - In April, the silicon iron futures price continued to decline, and the spot price followed the decline. As of April 28, 2025, the closing price of the silicon iron 506 contract was 5648 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron 72 in Inner Mongolia was in the price range of 5550 - 5700 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 150 yuan/ton [49]

2025 年 4 月 30 日 硅铁：黑色板块共振，硅铁低位震荡 锰硅：矿端信息扰动，锰硅低位震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2506 | 5608 | -40 | 101,408 | 140,498 | | 期货 | 硅铁2509 | 5664 | -38 | 21,833 | 102,179 | | | 锰硅2506 | 5700 | -46 | 48,234 | 45,332 | | | 锰硅2509 | 5758 | -46 | 206,305 | 405,443 | | | 项目 | | 价格 | 较前一交易日 | 单位 | | | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | | 5550 | - | 元/吨 | | 现货 | 硅锰:FeMn65Si ...