Group 1 - The holiday market is experiencing a peak in sales, with sufficient supply of essential goods and overall stable prices across the country [1][8] - In Tonghai, Yunnan, over 30 varieties of fresh vegetables, including cabbage and garlic sprouts, are being harvested, with a daily processing capacity exceeding 10,000 tons from a 65,000-acre green certified planting area [3] - In Huzhou, Zhejiang, fish farming has been enhanced with digital monitoring technology, allowing for an average of nearly 350 kilograms of fresh fish to reach consumers every minute before the holiday [4] Group 2 - Major markets nationwide are witnessing a surge in sales, with a daily foot traffic of over 30,000 at the seafood distribution center in Xiamen, Fujian, and 270 stalls operating normally [6] - The agricultural market in Harbin, Heilongjiang, is filled with various fruits, vegetables, and specialty products, with merchants selling out of "New Year fruit and vegetable gift packages" [6] - Data from the Ministry of Commerce indicates that inventories of essential goods in key national chain supermarkets have increased by over 20% compared to the same period last month [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of ensuring food safety during the Spring Festival by conducting a special inspection of agricultural product quality in Yangdang Town, Sheyang County, aimed at protecting public health and safety [1] Group 1: Inspection Activities - The local People's Congress representatives, along with officials from the market supervision bureau and agricultural rural office, conducted inspections in key areas such as farmers' markets and supermarkets [1] - The inspection focused on the supply and quality control of essential consumer goods, including fresh fruits and vegetables, meat, eggs, dairy, and seafood [1] Group 2: Key Findings and Actions - During the inspection, representatives checked the implementation of rapid testing, price stability, and emergency support measures, engaging in discussions with vendors and market management [1] - The inspection aimed to identify food safety risks and ensure that relevant parties strictly adhere to food safety responsibilities, ensuring that consumers can buy and consume food with confidence [1] Group 3: Future Actions - The local People's Congress will continue to monitor the resolution of identified issues and strengthen regular supervision to enhance agricultural product quality safety regulation [1] - The goal is to protect public health and ensure a safe and peaceful Spring Festival for the community [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current macroeconomic environment in the U.S. is reminiscent of the 1970s, where fiscal expansion and geopolitical tensions are driving a new commodity bull market, with significant implications for pricing and demand in various sectors [3][4]. - The U.S. is expected to implement a tax reduction of $396 billion in 2026, which could directly boost consumer growth by 1.8 percentage points, while the AI revolution and green transition are creating new demand dynamics [3][4]. - The commodity market is shifting from a supply-demand pricing model to one focused on liquidity and risk hedging, indicating that commodities may outperform other asset classes [4]. Group 2 - AI capital expenditure is reshaping the demand for non-ferrous metals, with significant increases in copper consumption driven by data center construction and energy storage systems [5][6]. - The first phase of AI investment is expected to double copper usage in power distribution systems, with an anticipated increase of 400,000 tons in copper consumption by 2026, representing 2% of global production [6]. - The second phase involves a surge in lithium demand, projected to grow at an annual rate of 15%-20%, while aluminum's application in energy storage systems is expected to rise above 15% [6]. Group 3 - There is a consensus in the market ranking commodities as "non-ferrous > precious metals > agricultural products > energy > ferrous," but this consensus is fragile, with risks of underestimating fundamental pricing and macro structural changes [8]. - The black metal sector faces pressure due to traditional demand drivers, and if fiscal signals do not exceed expectations by March 2026, valuation recovery for black metals may be constrained [8]. - The risk of a rollback in global decarbonization efforts could lead to a reassessment of demand premiums for green metals like copper and aluminum, with potential price adjustments exceeding expectations [9]. Group 4 - In the precious metals market, gold is viewed as a more stable investment compared to silver, supported by strong demand from central banks and ETFs, which enhances its "safe haven" status [10][11]. - Gold's unique financial attributes insulate it from industrial demand fluctuations, and its relatively low volatility makes it attractive for long-term investment [11]. - The current speculative net long positions in gold are below levels seen during last year's rate cuts, suggesting potential for price increases if monetary easing resumes [11].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China, along with other regulatory bodies, has issued guidelines to establish a normalized financial support mechanism aimed at preventing poverty and promoting rural revitalization, in line with the directives from the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Support Mechanism - The guidelines emphasize the need to develop a long-term financial support mechanism for key populations, optimizing microcredit for impoverished individuals and supporting those at risk of falling back into poverty [4]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to create loans for specialized industries and increase the upper limit for entrepreneurial guarantee loans in eligible regions [4]. - A tiered financial support mechanism for underdeveloped areas will be established, prioritizing new financial resources for key rural revitalization counties [4]. Group 2: Investment in Key Areas - The guidelines stress the importance of financial resource allocation in key sectors, particularly in grain and oil production, to enhance agricultural productivity and quality [5]. - Supply chain financial services, such as accounts receivable financing, will be developed to meet the financial needs of the entire agricultural industry chain [4][5]. - There will be increased long-term funding for rural infrastructure projects and support for the integration of agriculture, culture, and tourism [4]. Group 3: Financial Innovation and Collaboration - The guidelines call for enhanced collaboration among various financial sectors, encouraging local financial institutions in underdeveloped areas to issue special bonds for small and micro enterprises and agriculture [5]. - A comprehensive capital market support system will be constructed, including the continuation of a "green channel" policy for company listings [5]. - The implementation of innovative insurance products and services will be promoted, alongside a monitoring mechanism to assess the effectiveness of financial support policies [5].

Core Viewpoint - The document outlines a comprehensive financial support mechanism aimed at preventing poverty and promoting rural revitalization in China, emphasizing the importance of capital market integration and support for local enterprises [1] Group 1: Financial Support Mechanism - The People's Bank of China, along with other regulatory bodies, has issued guidelines to establish a normalized financial support mechanism for rural areas [1] - The guidelines propose the construction of a comprehensive capital market support system to enhance financing opportunities for rural enterprises [1] Group 2: Capital Market Integration - There will be increased efforts to guide and cultivate enterprises in rural areas for listing, enabling them to utilize multi-tiered capital markets for financing [1] - Companies registered in former poverty-stricken areas will continue to benefit from a "green channel" policy for listing [1] Group 3: Financing and Risk Management - Eligible listed companies will be supported in refinancing through methods such as additional issuance, share placement, convertible bonds, and corporate bonds to raise development funds for local specialty industries [1] - The initiative aims to provide more risk management tools that align with the development needs of rural industries [1] - The "insurance + futures" model will continue to be promoted in key counties for rural revitalization, enhancing project security [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the trade agreement between Trump and Modi indicates that India has made significant concessions, particularly in halting oil purchases from Russia and committing to increase imports from the U.S. by five times [1][3] - The agreement includes a mutual reduction of tariffs, with India required to lower tariffs on U.S. agricultural and technology products by 30% to 50% within six months, while the U.S. will reduce its punitive tariffs on India from 25% to 18% [1][3] - India's commitment to purchase $250 billion worth of oil and liquefied natural gas from the U.S. and Venezuela over the next five years raises concerns about the impact on domestic industries and inflation [3][5] Group 2 - The agreement mandates India to increase its total purchases from the U.S. to $500 billion, focusing on energy, technology, agriculture, and coal, with specific figures such as $1,500 billion in technology services and over $600 billion in agricultural products [5][7] - The strategic implications of the agreement suggest that India is caught in a dilemma, losing its non-aligned stance and facing potential backlash from Russia, which has been a key partner in energy and military cooperation [7] - The trade deal may lead to significant pressure on India's domestic industries, particularly small and medium enterprises, as the influx of U.S. goods could disrupt local markets and agricultural sectors [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between the US and India marks a significant reduction in tariffs, facilitating deeper economic cooperation and market access for both nations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - The US has implemented an 18% "reciprocal tariff rate" on Indian-origin goods, a substantial decrease from previous rates that could reach 50% or more [3][21]. - India has committed to significantly lowering tariffs on a range of US industrial and agricultural products, including specific items that benefit US agricultural states and manufacturing hubs [4][5][6]. Group 2: Non-Tariff Barriers - India has agreed to address long-standing non-tariff barriers that have hindered US companies, including the import licensing process for medical devices and market access restrictions for ICT products [7][8]. - The agreement includes a commitment from India to evaluate the adoption of US standards or international testing requirements within six months of the agreement's effectiveness [9]. Group 3: Strategic Goals - The US aims to expand exports, deepen market access, and strengthen regulatory frameworks, seeking not only to sell more products but also to lower entry barriers for US workers and producers in India [13][14][15]. - The agreement reflects a broader strategy where both countries are positioning themselves for future economic and technological collaboration, moving beyond mere tariff reductions [12][32]. Group 4: Procurement Commitments - A notable aspect of the agreement is the procurement commitment of $500 billion over five years, which includes high-value items such as energy, aircraft parts, and technology products [26][27]. - This procurement list is seen as a means to translate political agreements into tangible business contracts, particularly in the technology sector [28][29]. Group 5: Energy and Geopolitical Considerations - The agreement subtly ties tariff reductions to India's commitment to reduce imports of Russian oil, indicating a complex geopolitical exchange [35][37]. - India is gradually diversifying its oil supply sources, reflecting a strategic approach to balance its energy needs while maintaining relations with both the US and Russia [41][53]. Group 6: Future Cooperation and Challenges - The agreement is viewed as a first step towards a more comprehensive bilateral trade deal, with mechanisms in place to adjust commitments if either party alters its tariff arrangements [49][66]. - The real test will be whether the commitments translate into effective execution, particularly in areas like non-tariff barriers and digital trade rules [64][65].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is taking measures to ensure the supply and price stability of essential goods during the upcoming Spring Festival, focusing on collaboration among various departments to support vulnerable populations and maintain market stability [1][2][3] Group 1: Supply Assurance - The NDRC emphasizes the importance of ensuring sufficient supply of essential goods, particularly through enhanced winter agricultural production and management practices [1] - Measures include increasing the planting of fast-growing leafy vegetables and improving logistics efficiency by implementing "green channel" policies for fresh agricultural products [1][3] - Various regions are increasing commercial inventory levels of staple goods by 15% to 20% ahead of the festival to ensure adequate supply [3] Group 2: Price Stability - The government will release vegetable reserves and promote affordable sales through supermarkets and community stores to stabilize prices [1][2] - Market supervision will be strengthened to prevent price gouging and ensure compliance among vendors [1][2] - The NDRC reports that grain production has remained stable at over 1.4 trillion jin for two consecutive years, with sufficient reserves to meet consumption needs [2] Group 3: Support for Vulnerable Populations - The NDRC is monitoring and providing assistance to low-income households and those facing financial difficulties, ensuring timely distribution of social assistance funds [2] - A mechanism linking social assistance standards to price increases is being prepared to prevent poverty [2] - Local governments are encouraged to conduct outreach and provide one-time subsidies to support vulnerable groups during the festive season [2]

Report Investment Ratings - **Buy**: Soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, eggs [1] Core Views - The soybean market is expected to be optimistic, with the price of auctioned soybeans on the policy side rising and the spill - over effect of strong foreign soybean prices [2]. - The soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil markets show a pattern of strong meal and weak oil before the holiday, with a reduction in positions. The price of US soybeans is likely to rise, while the Malaysian palm oil price is weak in the short - term. The price of US soybean oil is likely to be supported, and the price of rapeseed oil is suppressed by policies [3]. - The domestic bean market rebounds with reduced positions, and the US soybean is in a relatively high - level volatile and strong pattern. The USDA February report is neutral to slightly bearish, but the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans boosts US soybean exports. The import of Canadian rapeseed is also boosted [5]. - The prices at Beigang ports and Northeast purchasing enterprises for corn are flat. The number of vehicles at Shandong corn deep - processing enterprises decreases normally. The US corn is in a weak and volatile state, and the Dalian corn futures may fluctuate more after the Spring Festival [6]. - The live pig market is weakly falling with reduced positions. The price stabilizes slightly due to pre - holiday stocking demand, but there may be large supply pressure after the Spring Festival [7]. - The egg market rebounds with reduced pre - holiday funds. The opening price after the Spring Festival should be noted, and there may be a long - buying opportunity after the basis of the first - half - year contract narrows [8]. Sector - by - Sector Summaries Soybean - The soybean market has increased positions and risen strongly. The spot market is lightly traded. The strong auction price and the spill - over effect of foreign soybean prices support the market. The pressure on the US soybean supply - demand balance sheet in the 26/27 season is expected to decrease [2]. Soybean Oil, Palm Oil and Rapeseed Oil - Before the holiday, the oil market shows a pattern of strong meal and weak oil with reduced positions. The US soybean price is likely to rise. The Malaysian palm oil price is short - term weak, and the US soybean oil price is likely to be supported. The rapeseed oil price is suppressed by policies [3]. Soybean and Bean Meal, Rapeseed Meal - The domestic bean market rebounds with reduced positions. The US soybean is in a relatively high - level volatile and strong pattern. The USDA February report is neutral to slightly bearish, but the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans boosts US soybean exports. The import of Canadian rapeseed is also boosted [5]. Corn - The prices at Beigang ports and Northeast purchasing enterprises for corn are flat. The number of vehicles at Shandong corn deep - processing enterprises decreases normally. The US corn is in a weak and volatile state, and the Dalian corn futures may fluctuate more after the Spring Festival [6]. Live Pigs - The live pig market is weakly falling with reduced positions. The price stabilizes slightly due to pre - holiday stocking demand, but there may be large supply pressure after the Spring Festival [7]. Eggs - The egg market rebounds with reduced pre - holiday funds. The opening price after the Spring Festival should be noted, and there may be a long - buying opportunity after the basis of the first - half - year contract narrows [8]

Report Information - Report Title: 2026 Commodity Outlook - Research Team: Guolian Minsheng Securities Forward-looking Research Team - Report Date: February 13, 2026 [1] Investment Recommendations - Industrial metals: Due to the demand from the electric vehicle, energy storage, wind power, and photovoltaic sectors, and the long - term insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity approaching the limit, copper and aluminum are recommended for their potentially positive fundamentals [3]. - Minor metals: Benefiting from China's macro - regulation and supervision of strategic minerals and the supply being restricted by mining quotas, rare earths, antimony, and tungsten are recommended [3]. - Precious metals: With their defensive properties, the prices of silver and platinum are expected to enter an upward cycle, so they are recommended [3]. Core Views - The factors influencing commodity prices are divided into short - to - medium - term disturbances, cyclical factors, and trend/structural forces. Capital expenditure in the next 3 - 5 years will affect commodity supply and pricing [3]. Summary by Section 1. Commodity Price Drivers 1.1 Medium - to - Long - Term Influencing Factors: Capital Expenditure Cycle - Copper prices follow the marginal cost pricing principle, while oil prices do not fully conform. The oil price center may have a 5 - year cycle [12][14][15]. 1.2 Short - to - Medium - Term Disturbing Factors: Geopolitics and Supply - Side Restrictions - Commodity price fluctuations caused by geopolitics and supply - side restrictions usually correct within half a year to a year. The flexibility of US shale oil production can offset the impact of OPEC's production changes on oil prices to some extent, and OPEC+ production agreements affect oil prices within 6 months [23]. 1.3 Impact of Technological Progress - The impact of electric vehicle technology on oil demand is slower than on lithium carbonate demand. The new nickel production process has led to a large release of nickel ore capacity, and nickel prices have not outperformed inflation. US natural gas prices have underperformed inflation due to technological progress, and agricultural technological progress has significantly affected agricultural product prices [24][29][34][38]. 2. Traditional Energy: "Stable with Changes", Reshaping the Supply - Demand Structure 2.1 Oil Market - Global oil and gas upstream investment has been increasing since 2020, but it may not return to the high level of 2014 - 2015. OPEC's production recovery may be limited by remaining capacity. Trump's impact on US oil production may be limited. Global oil consumption is increasing, with China and India being the main contributors. The oil market may be in an oversupply situation in 2025 - 2026 [45][51][63][82][87]. 2.2 Natural Gas Market - Asian natural gas demand is stable, and China's dependence on imported LNG has weakened in 2025. US LNG project capacity is expected to grow rapidly, while Europe faces greater LNG import demand [91][98][104][112]. 2.3 Coal Market - Coal remains an important "ballast stone" in the power system. Global coal consumption growth is slowing, and supply is relatively stable. China's coal market is expected to operate stably under the policy of increasing supply and ensuring stable prices [120][126][132]. 3. Steel Industry: Weak Demand, Excess Capacity - Construction steel demand is in a low - growth state, and China's steel exports may be restricted by trade policies. Iron ore supply is expected to be loose, and the coking coal market supply - demand gap is narrowing, with prices fluctuating [134][139][149][159]. 4. Industrial Metals: Improving Supply - Demand Structure, Positive Fundamentals 4.1 Copper - Copper demand is facing a shift in growth drivers, with new energy sectors such as electric vehicles, wind power, and photovoltaics becoming important demand sources. However, copper exploration investment has been low, and the growth of ore - end resources has been suppressed. The slowdown of recycled copper smelting and the decline of processing fees may support copper prices [165][172][178][192]. 4.2 Aluminum - China's bauxite supply is tight, and imports account for a large proportion, with potential overseas supply disruptions. Global electrolytic aluminum production growth is slowing, and China's production is restricted by the capacity ceiling, which may support aluminum prices [199][208][219]. 4.3 Rare Earths - China's rare earth mining and smelting quota growth has slowed down, and the increase in overseas supply is limited [224]. 4.4 Antimony - The demand for antimony in the photovoltaic glass industry is expected to increase, but domestic antimony mine production growth is limited, and global supply is tightening [230][235]. 4.5 Tungsten - The downstream demand for tungsten is expected to improve with the recovery of the manufacturing industry. However, domestic tungsten mine production growth may slow down, while overseas supply may increase [240][246]. 5. Precious Metals: Entering an Upward Cycle - Silver and platinum - group metals may continue to be in a shortage situation. The industrial demand for silver, especially in the photovoltaic sector, is strong, while the demand for platinum and palladium in the automotive industry may decline due to the increase in electric vehicle penetration [252][257]. 6. Agricultural Products: Climate Change Challenges, Regional Market Differentiation 6.1 Soybeans - The global soybean supply - demand structure is expected to remain loose. China's soybean consumption may decline, the US renewable fuel production has decreased, and trade policies may affect the soybean trade pattern. North American and South American soybean production has different trends, and China's soybean import volume may decrease [264][269][273][278][294]. 6.2 Corn - Global corn supply is tightening, with inventory decreasing. China's corn consumption is growing steadily, the US corn production has decreased but exports have increased significantly, Brazil's corn production has different trends, and its domestic ethanol production restricts exports [299][300][309][315][320]. 6.3 Wheat - The global wheat market is in a tight - balance state. China and India's imports may increase, Russia and the EU's supply has decreased due to bad weather, while North America and Australia's wheat production has been positively affected by the weather. The supply of major exporting countries is tight, and prices are stabilizing [321][331][332][339][340].