gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 (原油) 12月份,国内规上工业原油产量1780万吨，同比下降0.6%;规上工业原油加工量6246万吨，同比增 长5.0%。特朗普暂缓对伊朗军事行动，地缘风险溢价部分回吐。此前我们提示油价波动显著加剧, 地缘犹动消息反复下市场对此逐渐脱敏，除非冲突实际发生，否则地缘溢价空间有限。此外，2026 年第一季度的全球原油供需结构显示库存压力显著,供应过剩仍是压制油价的主要因素。 (责金属) 隔夜贵金属延续强势。近日美联储多位官员讲话对短期内降息持否定态度,一月维持利率不变基本 成为共识。伊朗局势处于紧张状态，欧美围绕格陵兰岛针锋相对，特朗普对于全球秩序的挑战令贵 金属趋势难改，维持多头思路。 【铜】 隔夜铜价反弹,美国市场提前休市,LME美国库开始有库存注册,美伦价差缩窄初步影响市场。题材 上伊朗之外，格陵兰博弈再次引入美对欧关税威胁，贵金属短线延续涨势。国内社库累入到32.94 万吨，高硫酸价格下,国内1月精炼铜产出科环比回暖,国内铜市"供大于求"为主。仍需关注沪铜 减量,目前量价仍有一定潜力。继续持有执行价10.4万卖看涨与9. ...

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - International oil prices rose collectively, with the US crude oil main contract up 0.15% at $59.43 per barrel and the Brent crude oil main contract up 0.08% at $64.18 per barrel [4]. - London base metals rose across the board, with LME tin up 3.87% at $49840.0 per ton, LME nickel up 3.23% at $18145.0 per ton, etc. [4]. - As of 23:00, most domestic futures main contracts fell. Coke, glass, etc. fell more than 2%, while palm oil and PVC rose nearly 1% [4]. - As of 2:30, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 1.35%, the Shanghai silver main contract rose 5.88%, and the SC crude oil main contract fell 0.52% [5]. 2. Important Information Macro Information - In 2025, China's GDP was 1401879 billion yuan, up 5.0% year - on - year. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries increased by 3.9%, 4.5%, and 5.4% respectively [8]. - The IMF raised China's economic growth rate forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 5% and also raised the forecast for 2026. The world economy is expected to grow 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027 [8]. - As of January 19, 2026, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (Europe route) was 1954.19 points, down 0.1% from the previous period [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - In December 2025, China's crude oil imports were 5597000 tons, up 17.4% year - on - year; refined oil imports were 399000 tons, up 21.1% year - on - year; and refined oil exports were 537000 tons, up 43.6% year - on - year [11]. - India's Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd is considering buying Venezuelan oil and stopping importing Russian oil [11]. Metal Futures - In December 2025, China's polysilicon imports were 1873 tons, down 42.8% year - on - year; alumina exports were 210000 tons, up 9.3% year - on - year [14]. - PT Vale Indonesia may face a shortage of mining production quota for its new smelter [14]. - In December 2025, China's primary aluminum output was 3870000 tons, up 3.0% year - on - year; ten non - ferrous metals output was 7210000 tons, up 4.9% year - on - year [14]. - From January 21, 2026, the daily price limit of lithium carbonate futures contracts will be adjusted to 11%, and the margin standards for speculative and hedging trades will be adjusted to 13% and 12% respectively [15][43]. - Chile's copper output is expected to peak at 6.06 million tons in 2033 and then slow down to 5.86 million tons in 2034 [16]. Black - series Futures - Yijinhuoluoqi Dongbo Coal Mine was ordered to suspend production for 2 days due to major safety hazards [19]. - From January 12 - 18, 2026, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 28977000 tons, a decrease of 1173000 tons from the previous period [19]. - In 2025, real estate development enterprises' funds in place decreased by 13.4% year - on - year, construction area decreased by 10.0% year - on - year, and new commercial housing sales area decreased by 8.7% year - on - year [20]. - In December 2025, China's crude steel output was 68.18 million tons, down 10.3% year - on - year; coal output was 437.03 million tons, down 1.0% year - on - year [20]. Agricultural Product Futures - The new China - Canada economic and trade agreement is a positive development for Canadian rapeseed growers, but key details need clarification [22]. - It is expected that the average price of palm oil in 2026 will be 4125 ringgit per ton, down 2.55% year - on - year; Malaysia's output will be 19.75 million tons, down 2.61% year - on - year; and Indonesia's output will reach a record 51.2 million tons, up 0.39% year - on - year [24]. - In 2025, China's total grain output was 714.88 million tons, up 1.2% year - on - year; pig, cattle, sheep, and poultry meat output was 100.72 million tons, up 4.2% year - on - year [24]. - In January, the arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased. The weekly soybean crushing volume of oil mills was below 2 million tons, and the monthly crushing volume is expected to be about 8 million tons [24]. - As of last Thursday, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 2%, slightly higher than 1.7% in the same period last year [25]. - It is expected that Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 will be 105 million tons, and the total supply will reach 183.79 million tons, up 5% year - on - year [25]. 3. Financial Market Financial - The Supreme People's Procuratorate deployed to safeguard economic and financial security and punish securities crimes [29]. - On Monday, the A - share market had a narrow - range oscillation, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.29% at 4114 points [29]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.05% to 26563.9 points [29]. - A total of 451 A - share listed companies disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts, with 156 pre - announcing good news [30]. - Insurance funds' investment preferences may affect the market style, and the AI and non - ferrous metal sectors have investment opportunities [32]. - Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau fined and banned "Jinyongrong" from the securities market for market manipulation [32]. - A fund manager's different operations between personal and fund accounts have sparked controversy [32]. - Rumors about false accounts for Hong Kong stock IPO subscriptions are untrue [32]. - Yunbao Intelligence launched its A - share IPO process, aiming to be the first domestic DPU stock [33]. Industry - Five departments jointly deployed the construction of zero - carbon factories, aiming to cultivate them in multiple industries by 2027 and expand to traditional high - energy - consuming industries by 2030 [34]. - In December 2025, housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities generally declined month - on - month and the year - on - year decline widened [34]. - China successfully launched the 19th group of satellite Internet low - orbit satellites [35]. - Domestic refined oil prices are expected to rise on January 21, 2026 [36]. - Micron Technology warned of a shortage of memory chips due to the surging demand for high - end semiconductors in AI infrastructure [36]. - High - end spirits demand has shrunk, leading to inventory backlogs and production shutdowns in the industry [36]. Overseas - The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3% and also raised the forecasts for China, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan [37]. - The EU will hold an emergency summit to discuss Trump's tariff measures and consider counter - measures [37]. - Germany restarted electric vehicle purchase subsidies of 1500 - 6000 euros, open to all car manufacturers [38]. - Japanese Prime Minister Takamori Sanae will dissolve the House of Representatives on January 23, 2026 [38]. - Ueno Zoo in Tokyo will return the giant panda twins "Xiaoxiao" and "Leilei" to China [39]. International Stock Markets - European stock markets fell across the board, with the German DAX index down 1.34%, the French CAC40 index down 1.78%, and the UK FTSE 100 index down 0.39% [40]. - Asian stock markets had a mixed performance. The Japanese market had a "double - kill" of stocks and bonds, while the South Korean Composite Index hit a new high [40]. - Norway's central bank investment management company significantly reduced its holdings of London small and medium - cap stocks [40]. - US investor Elliott opposed Toyota Industries' privatization proposal [41]. Commodity - The price limit and margin standards of lithium carbonate futures contracts on the GZEX will be adjusted from January 21, 2026 [43]. - International oil prices rose, and London base metals also increased [43]. Bond - The domestic bond market was weak, with most treasury bond futures closing down [44]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 54 points to 6.9636 at 16:30 on Monday [45]. - The US dollar index fell 0.32% to 99.05, and non - US currencies mostly rose [47]. - Hedge funds increased their short positions on the yen before the Japanese election [47]. - JPMorgan Chase downgraded the ratings of emerging market currencies and the South African rand [47]. 4. Upcoming Events - There will be 358.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due in the Chinese central bank's open market at 09:20 [49]. - Press conferences will be held by the State Council Information Office at 10:00 and 15:00 [49]. - Executives from BlackRock, the EU Commission, the UK Treasury, Canada, etc. will speak at the World Economic Forum [49]. - The 40th AAAI Artificial Intelligence Conference and the 2026 Alibaba Cloud PolarDB Developer Conference will be held [49]. - Netflix and 3M will release their financial reports [49].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a collective pullback in major indices, with significant declines in copper and gold prices, while emerging sectors like AI data centers are driving long-term demand for non-ferrous metals [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 20, 2026, major indices have collectively retreated, with copper prices experiencing a sharp drop and gold prices slightly declining [1]. - Gold ETFs, such as Huaxia (518850), fell by 0.2%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) decreased by 2.31%, and the non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) dropped by 2.34% [1]. - The trading volume was active, with a turnover of 216 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.49%, indicating potential fund accumulation [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Demand Drivers - Non-ferrous metal ETFs have seen continuous net inflows over the past 18 days, totaling 10.774 billion yuan [1]. - Emerging fields like AI data centers are becoming core demand drivers for non-ferrous metals, with significant reliance on copper and aluminum for power and cooling systems [1]. - The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to be supported in the long term due to "AI capital expenditure growth" and global energy transition trends [1]. Group 3: Industrial Product Price Dynamics - According to Dongfang Securities, market expectations for short-term interest rate cuts have been dampened following statements from Trump, leading to weakened financial support for industrial product prices [2]. - Increased domestic inventory and lower downstream processing rates have contributed to negative feedback for major industrial products like copper and aluminum [2]. - Despite short-term volatility, strong support for industrial products is anticipated due to internal and external policy expectations, with some inventories at historically low levels [2]. Group 4: ETF Index Composition - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Non-ferrous Metal Industry Theme Index (000811) include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and others, collectively accounting for 52.98% of the index [2].

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2026/1/20 | 星期二 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | | | | | | 前两日收盘价 | 4737.00 | 4725.80 | 4723.20 | 4680.00 | 前日收盘价 | 4732.80 | 4728.60 | 4688.80 | 4633.80 | | | 涨跌 | -3.99 | 5.00 | -30.40 | -44.80 | 沪深300 | 涨跌幅 | -0. ...

劲拓股份：每10股派发现金红利人民币4.10元（含税），股权登记日：2026-1-23，除息除权日：2026- 1-26，数据来源《2025年前三季度权益分派实施公告》；申万一级行业：机械设备，非红利低波 （H30269.CSI）成分股，非红利质量（931468.CSI）成分股。 川仪股份：每股现金红利0.3元（含税），股权登记日：2026-1-23，除息除权日：2026-1-26，数据来源 《2025年三季度权益分派实施公告》；申万一级行业：机械设备，非红利低波（H30269.CSI）成分 股，非红利质量（931468.CSI）成分股。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 东箭科技：每10股派发现金股利0.50元人民币（含税），股权登记日：2026-1-23，除息除权日：2026- 1-26，数据来源《2025年前三季度权益分派实施公告》；申万一级行业：汽车，非红利低波 （H30269.CSI）成分股，非红利质量（931468.CSI）成分股。 锡业股份：每10股派发现金股利1.10元人民币（含税），股权登记日：2026-1-26，除息除权日：2026- 1-27，数据来源《云南锡业股份有限公司2025年前三季度权 ...

美银列举了诸如铜、银、锂、铝和镍等金属。美银表示，金属需求的增长已不再具有周期性特征，因为 各经济体正在重新构建其能源基础设施。 港股有色金属股集体走低，其中，中国有色矿业跌超7%，中国宏桥、中国铝业、洛阳钼业跌4.6%，灵 宝黄金、赤峰黄金跌超4%，五矿资源、江西铜业、山东黄金、招金矿业、紫金矿业、赣锋锂业均跌超 3%以上。 消息上，美国银行策略师提出了一种"完美"的AI投资策略，即投资受益于人工智能热潮的非AI科技股标 的，以抵御AI驱动的波动。该策略建议关注电气化、基础设施与电网扩建、金属和国防等领域，这些 领域可能受益于人工智能交易，但与科技行业本身保持相邻关系。对更多能源的需求也推动了与电气化 相关的某些金属的使用。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 ^ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01258 | 中国有色矿业 | 14.310 | -7.26% | | 02600 | 中国铝业 | 12.580 | -4.62% | | 01378 | 中国宏桥 | 34.000 | -4.60% | | 03993 | 洛阳钼业 | 20.780 | -4.59% | ...

伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周伦镍库存整体有所回升，1月16日库存增至逾七年新高， 本周库存小幅回落，最新库存水平为285,08吨。 注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 2023年以来LME和上期所镍库存对比 以下为2026年1月以来LME和上期所镍库存数据：（单位：吨） 上期所公布的数据显示，1月16日当周，沪镍库存继续回升，周度库存增加3.28%至48,180吨，再刷近八 年新高。 ...

每经AI快讯，1月20日，有色金属板块震荡走弱，西部材料跌超9%，中钨高新、厦门钨业、章源钨业、 翔鹭钨业等跌幅居前。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

当极端天气按下大宗商品"波动键"20260119 摘要 当前为弱拉尼娜事件，预计 2026 年 3 月结束转为中性，但全球变暖背 景下，预计不会出现大范围冷冬，局部地区或有阶段性寒潮。太阳黑子 周期下行期可能加剧极端天气风险，频繁切换拉尼娜和厄尔尼诺现象。 2026 年 3 月后转为中性，7 月起厄尔尼诺转换概率上升，11 月接近 60%，冬季厄尔尼诺影响不容小觑。南美大豆丰产预期增强，美豆价格 预计维持在 1,000-1,150 美分/蒲式耳区间，难突破上限。 弱拉尼娜对棕榈油产量影响小，马来西亚产量恢复。短期关注需求和高 库存去化，上半年看涨。若冬季出现强厄尔尼诺，可能导致棕榈果减产， 影响在 2027 年显现。 国内小麦因延迟播种面临生长压力，寒潮和春季干旱风险提高丰产难度， 减产预期可能推升 2026 年 4-5 月新麦上市价格，并与玉米形成共振， 预计玉米价格震荡上行。 欧美天然气市场受气温影响大，2026 年美国 11 月偏冷但 12 月回暖， 未形成稳定冷冬局面。欧洲库存偏低，但实际消费同比负增长，荷兰 TDF 气价中枢下移，旺季涨价空间低于预期。 Q&A 2026 年及未来三到五年的天气展望有 ...

免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 255 30 理论价差 190 367 铅 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 390 160 理论价差 228 341 跨品种套利跟踪 2026/01/20 铜/锌 铜/铝 铜/铅 铝/锌 铝/铅 铅/锌 沪（三连） 4.14 4.20 5.88 0.99 1.40 0.70 伦（三连） 4.02 4.10 6.29 0.98 1.53 0.64 有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/01/20 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2026/01/20 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 100975 12959 7.74 三月 101360 12892 7.88 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 7.90 -1653.61 现货出口 347.35 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2026/01/20 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 244 ...