Core Viewpoint - The Chinese capital market is undergoing significant reforms aimed at enhancing market order while promoting growth and innovation, with a focus on strict regulation and support for various sectors [4][26]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - In the past five years, the total financing through IPOs and refinancing in the stock market reached approximately 10.6 trillion yuan [6]. - As of the end of August this year, the value of medium to long-term funds held in the market was about 21.4 trillion yuan [11]. - The annualized volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index is reported at 15.9%, indicating resilience and stability in the A-share market [9]. Group 2: Regulatory Actions and Compliance - A total of 207 companies have been subject to strict enforcement actions to eliminate fraudulent practices [12]. - Over the past five years, 2,214 cases of financial fraud and manipulation have been penalized, with fines totaling 4.1 billion yuan [14]. - The regulatory framework has been strengthened to deter financial misconduct, with a focus on comprehensive punishment and prevention measures [20]. Group 3: Foreign Investment and Market Access - Foreign investment in A-shares has been increasing, reflecting the attractiveness of the Chinese capital market [16][17]. - The market is committed to maintaining strict control over new issuances while ensuring stability in the bond market, with a focus on reducing default rates [18]. Group 4: Support for Innovation and Growth - There is a greater emphasis on supporting sectors such as technology and innovation through platforms like the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [24]. - The market is encouraged to foster the growth of various industries and facilitate mergers and acquisitions to enhance overall market vitality [24].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025 年 09 月 22 日 非银行金融 美联储降息与元首通话共振，非银金融板块有望重拾升势-非银周观 点 海外科技映射、美国降息等影响，市场量能、走势波动较大，金融板块陷入 调整。我们判断，宏大叙事、国内 8月经济数据不及预期、美联储降息及市 场流动性充沛或是驱动市场走强的关键因素，两融波动新高，8 月非银存款 继续增加，券商为代表的非银金融震荡调整后有望呈现上行走势。交易节奏 而言，两国领导人再次通话、经济数据走弱、海外货币宽松下的流动性驱动 市场走强的趋势或有望延续，可能要重点聚焦关注贸易摩擦影响、内部问题、 居民存款搬家持续效应及美国经济可能衰退引发降息的效应，中期具体或要 看包括四中全会等重磅会议。需要高度重视券商及金融 IT 板块走强趋势，并 购线建议重点关注以国联民生为代表个股；具有估值扩张空间的公司，推荐 关注综合能力强、风险资本指标优化、受益 ETF 发展的东方证券、华泰证券 等；同时从赔率弹性角度，建议继续关注布局金融 IT 板块，建议重点关注同 花顺、九方智投（中报股东净利润 8.65 亿元，子公司方德证券在港展业；控 股旗下九方智擎入驻"模速空间"，抢滩 ...

Core Insights - As of September 19, the financing balance of the A-share market reached 2.38161 trillion yuan, with a margin trading balance of 16.575 billion yuan, indicating an increase of 46.646 billion yuan in financing balance over the past week [1][2] - The electronic industry saw a significant increase in financing balance, exceeding 16 billion yuan, with Shenghong Technology being the stock with the highest net buying amount [1][3] Financing and Margin Trading Overview - From August 13 to September 19, the A-share market experienced 28 consecutive trading days with transaction volumes and margin trading balances exceeding 2 trillion yuan [2][3] - During the last week, the financing balance increased by 46.646 billion yuan, with notable daily increases on September 15 (18.337 billion yuan), September 16 (22.511 billion yuan), and September 17 (12.711 billion yuan) [2][3] Industry Performance - Among the 31 industries tracked, 25 saw an increase in financing balance, with the electronic, non-bank financial, and power equipment sectors leading in net buying amounts of 16.642 billion yuan, 5.034 billion yuan, and 4.528 billion yuan respectively [3] - Conversely, the non-ferrous metals, defense, and coal industries experienced the highest net selling amounts of 1.158 billion yuan, 0.952 billion yuan, and 0.273 billion yuan respectively [3] Stock-Specific Activity - Last week, financing clients increased their positions in 202 stocks by over 100 million yuan, with the top ten stocks being Shenghong Technology (2.112 billion yuan), SMIC (2.056 billion yuan), and CITIC Securities (1.775 billion yuan) [4] - The top ten stocks with the highest net selling amounts included Xinyi Technology (1.577 billion yuan), Zijin Mining (0.964 billion yuan), and Haiguang Information (0.964 billion yuan) [5] Margin Trading Details - As of September 19, the margin trading balance was 16.575 billion yuan, with a slight decrease of 0.032 billion yuan over the past week [5] - The stocks with the highest margin trading balances included Ningde Times (119 million yuan), Shenghong Technology (98 million yuan), and Kweichow Moutai (82 million yuan) [5][6]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.22% to close at 3828.58 points, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.67% to 13157.97 points. The Sci-Tech 50 index saw a significant rise of 3.38%, closing at 1408.64 points, and the ChiNext index rose by 0.55% to 3107.89 points. Overall, there were 3150 stocks that declined, while 2175 stocks advanced, with 102 stocks remaining flat. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 21215 billion yuan, a decrease of 2023.47 million yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - Among the primary industries, electronics, computers, non-ferrous metals, machinery equipment, non-bank financials, and automobiles led the gains, while sectors such as social services, beauty care, retail, food and beverage, construction decoration, and oil and petrochemicals experienced declines [1][2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic growth momentum in China slowed down in August, with multiple indicators such as prices, investment, and consumption weakening, increasing the necessity for policy support. Policy is guiding the further growth of "service consumption". There are expectations for policies from the upcoming "922" press conference. The overseas situation is positive, with positive signals from the China-US economic and trade talks and the Fed's first interest rate cut this year. However, the domestic economic data is poor, and there is a need for policies to promote consumption, stabilize the real estate market, and expand fiscal spending. The stock index trend remains bullish, but the policy aims for a "slow bull" pattern. It is recommended to adjust and go long, and control positions before the holiday [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influence Factors and Logic** - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: In August, China's economic growth slowed, with industrial production, investment, and consumption weakening. The year-on-year growth of the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5.2%, the year-on-year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.4%, and the year-on-year growth of national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to August was 0.5%. Policy support for the economy is necessary [3]. - **Macro Policy**: The policy is guiding the growth of service consumption, with over 30 policies already introduced and more to come. The "922" press conference has raised policy expectations, similar to the "924" policy "combination punch" last year [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: The China-US Madrid economic and trade talks had a positive tone. The Fed cut interest rates by 20bp in September 2025, and the dot - plot shows possible further rate cuts [3]. - **Liquidity**: As of September 18, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 23946.9 billion yuan, an increase of 509.9 billion yuan from the previous week. The proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was 13.2%, at the 99.7% quantile level in the past decade. The average daily trading volume last week increased by 1609 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3]. - **Investment View and Strategy** - **View**: Control positions before the holiday, adjust and go long, and expect a "slow bull" pattern in the A - share market [3]. - **Strategy**: Control positions unilaterally before the holiday, and pay attention to domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3]. Part Two: Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the CSI 300 fell 0.44% to 4501.9; the SSE 50 fell 1.98% to 2909.7; the CSI 500 rose 0.32% to 7170.3; the CSI 1000 rose 0.21% to 7438.2 [5]. - **Industry Index Performance**: Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, power equipment (3.1%), electronics (3%), automobiles (3%), machinery and equipment (2.2%), and social services (1.7%) led the gains, while banking (-4.2%), non - ferrous metals (-4%), non - bank finance (-3.7%), steel (-3%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-2.7%) led the losses [9]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures increased by 17.61%, 18.63%, 12.92%, and 11.24% respectively, while the open interests decreased by 7.73%, 4.25%, 8.04%, and 2.08% respectively [11]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The CSI 300 - SSE 50 was at 1592.2, at the 94.9% historical quantile level; the CSI 1000 - CSI 500 was at 267.8, at the 43.9% historical quantile level; the CSI 300/CSI 1000 was at 0.6, at the 32.7% historical quantile level; the SSE 50/CSI 1000 was at 0.6, at the 26.6% historical quantile level [16]. Part Three: Stock Index Influence Factors - Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 11923 billion yuan. Next week, 18268 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire, and 3000 billion yuan of MLF will expire on September 25 [22]. - **Market Liquidity Indicators**: As of September 18, the A - share margin trading balance was 23946.9 billion yuan, an increase of 509.9 billion yuan from the previous week. The proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was 13.2%, at the 99.7% quantile level in the past decade. The average daily trading volume last week increased by 1609 billion yuan compared to the previous week. As of September 19, the risk premium rate of the CSI 300 was 5.29, at the 51.8% quantile level in the past decade [29]. Part Four: Stock Index Influence Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In August, various economic indicators showed different trends. For example, the year - on - year growth of industrial added value was 5.2%, the year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.4%, and the year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment from January to August was 0.5%. The CPI was - 0.4%, and the PPI was - 2.9% [32]. - **Industry - Specific Indicators**: Different industries such as real estate, consumption, manufacturing, and infrastructure construction also had their own performance trends. For example, in the real estate industry, the year - on - year decline in real estate investment continued; in the manufacturing industry, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4% [32][34][37]. - **Corporate Earnings**: The earnings of major broad - based indices and Shenwan primary industry indices showed different growth rates and ROE levels. For example, the year - on - year growth rate of the net profit attributable to the parent of the CSI 300 in Q2 2025 was 2.49%, and the ROE (TTM) was 9.71% [44][45]. Part Four: Stock Index Influence Factors - Policy Drive - **Recent Policy Movements**: A series of policies have been introduced, including policies to promote service consumption, optimize real estate policies, and provide fiscal subsidies for personal consumption loans. For example, on September 17, the Ministry of Commerce announced policies to promote service consumption; on September 5, Shenzhen optimized real estate policies [49][50]. Part Five: Stock Index Influence Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data**: In August, the US manufacturing PMI was 48.7%, the non - manufacturing PMI was 52%, the consumer confidence index was 55.4, the unemployment rate was 4.3%, and the number of new non - farm payrolls was 22000. The year - on - year growth of PCE was 0%, and the year - on - year growth of CPI was 2.9% [59][62]. - **Trump Team's Actions**: Trump has proposed and implemented a series of tariff policies, including tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, which have led to trade frictions and counter - measures [66][68].

上周，A股震荡调整。Wind数据显示，截至9月19日，A股两融余额报23981.85亿元，其中融资余额报23816.10亿 元。上周A股市场融资余额增加466.46亿元。9月17日，A股两融余额和融资余额均创历史新高。 具体来看，上周的5个交易日中，9月15日A股融资余额增加183.37亿元，9月16日增加225.11亿元，9月17日增加 127.11亿元，9月18日减少27.62亿元，9月19日减少41.50亿元。 值得注意的是，8月13日—9月19日，A股连续28个交易日成交额与两融余额均超2万亿元。在A股历史上，仅有33个 交易日成交额与两融余额均超2万亿元。 从行业情况来看，上周申万一级31个行业中有25个行业融资余额增加，电子、非银金融、电力设备行业融资净买入 金额居前，分别为166.42亿元、50.34亿元、45.28亿元。在融资余额减少的行业中，有色金属、国防军工、煤炭行业 融资净卖出金额居前，分别为11.58亿元、9.52亿元、2.73亿元。 上周行业融资余额变动情况 | 行业 | | 两融余额(万元) 融资余额(万元) | 融资净买入额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

本文作者为创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春 上期《首席视点》明确指出风险溢价又起波澜，从资产运行的结果看，美联储确实降息了，A股确实调 整了，外部冲击确实存在。我们提醒，不能善意忽视"对等关税"的影响，尽管目前因中美博弈而暂停冲 击。随着国内宏观经济数据预示的经济内生动力的边际弱化，我们从8月中旬提示的动力转化问题开始 成为市场的共识。短期市场出现两大分歧：1）股债要切换了。理由有三，一是国家资产负债表缩表速 度加快，二是风险偏好基本修复完毕，三是监管层在引导长牛和慢牛。2）市场情绪高涨，A股要冲击 3900点的高点，近期人工智能消息层出不穷，风险资产将会势如破竹。 一、上周市场回顾：煤炭一枝独秀 随着美联储降息的兑现，黄金的涨幅开始变慢，伦敦金现上周上涨1.2%，今年以来上涨40%，在预期美 联储进一步宽松、地缘政治紧张局势和强劲的央行购买的背景下，反复创下历史新高。美联储主席鲍威 尔发表了谨慎的言论，称此举为"风险管理式降息"。同时还上调了国内生产总值增长预测，表明经济持 续强劲。失业救济人数低于预期，暗示劳动力市场疲软可能不及担忧程度。即使这样，投资者还是对降 息表达了欢迎，恒生科技上周涨幅为5%，纳斯达 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.32%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling 0.68%. Most tech stocks weakened, with Kuaishou down over 6%, Anta Sports down over 4%, and NetEase down over 1%. Zijin Mining rose over 2% [1] - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a net inflow of funds for 26 consecutive months, with a record monthly net inflow of 112.2 billion HKD in August 2025, indicating strong interest from mainland investors [3] - The average daily trading amount of southbound trading ETFs reached a new high of 3.8 billion HKD in the first half of 2025, with the number of eligible ETFs increasing from 5 to 17 [4] Group 2 - According to CITIC Securities, the Hong Kong stock market's performance stabilized in the first half of 2025, achieving positive growth in earnings, with revenue and profit growth rates of 1.9% and 4.6% respectively [5] - The technology, healthcare, and materials sectors showed high prosperity, supporting the performance of the Hong Kong stock market, while energy, utilities, and real estate sectors faced performance pressures [5] - AI remains a key theme in the Hong Kong stock market, with significant growth in AI cloud services and a shift towards self-developed chips among major AI companies [6]

开源证券指出，近1个月大金融板块有所调整，券商和保险板块呈现出一定的负超额。市场活跃度仍在 较高水平，低利率环境下机构和居民资金入市趋势有望延续，继续看好慢牛启航下非银金融板块战略性 增配机会。券商板块盈利高景气、估值性价比较高，具有较高的胜率和赔率，看好低估值保险H股配置 价值。 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.30%, while sectors like power equipment, electronics, and communications continued to lead in gains, contrasting with the underperforming banking, non-banking, and food and beverage sectors [1] Broker Strategies - Guotai Junan Securities believes that the recent market adjustment presents an opportunity, asserting that the Chinese stock market will not stop here. They highlight the positive implications of the recent US-China talks and the potential for capital market reforms to accelerate, suggesting that the A/H share indices may reach new highs [2] - Guojin Securities indicates that a bull market is in the making, with a focus on cyclical opportunities in manufacturing and a shift from technology-driven growth to export-oriented growth as liquidity constraints ease [2] - Zheshang Securities anticipates continued consolidation in the Shanghai Composite Index, recommending a cautious approach and suggesting adjustments in sector allocations, particularly reducing exposure to technology and media while increasing positions in real estate and infrastructure [3] - Everbright Securities expects the A-share market to maintain a volatile pattern leading up to the National Day holiday, with a focus on structural balance amid potential profit-taking [4] - China Merchants Securities notes a historical pattern of financing trends around the National Day holiday, suggesting a potential rebound in market sentiment post-holiday, with a focus on sectors like solid-state batteries and AI [5] - Industrial Securities emphasizes a rotational investment strategy to navigate market volatility, advocating for a diversified approach across multiple sectors [6][7] - CITIC Securities highlights the clarity in market trading themes following the Fed's interest rate cut, with a focus on AI and domestic demand recovery as key drivers [8] - Huaxia Securities maintains a positive long-term outlook despite short-term fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of structural support from policies aimed at stabilizing the stock market [9] - Galaxy Securities recommends four main investment themes in the construction sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on urban renewal and digital transformation in construction [11]