Market Overview - Global major asset performance shows A-shares leading with a rise of 1.71% this week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Index fell by 1.02% [2][3] - The real estate sector led the A-share market with a weekly increase of 6.12%, while the banking sector saw a decline of 1.00% [2][4] Industry Performance - The real estate industry increased by 6.1% this week, while steel rose by 4.4%, and non-bank financials by 4.0% [4][5] - The banking sector experienced a decline of 1.0% year-to-date, while the real estate sector is down 1.4% [4] Strategic Insights - The market is showing signs of a "bull market atmosphere," with the A-share index breaking through key levels, indicating a potential for sustained upward movement [6][7] - The upcoming fiscal policies in the U.S. and the anticipated improvements in the supply-demand dynamics in China by 2026 are expected to enhance market sentiment [6][8] Key News - The introduction of a long-term assessment mechanism for insurance funds is expected to bring in significant capital inflows into the A-share market [10] - The recent announcements regarding the optimization of the ChiNext index and the implementation of new trading regulations are aimed at enhancing market liquidity and investment quality [11][12]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies on various industries, particularly focusing on manufacturing and trade dynamics between the U.S. and China. [1][3][8] Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Policies**: The Trump administration's tariff policies include reciprocal tariffs, Section 232 investigations, and anti-dumping tariffs, aimed at different objectives with varying negotiation outcomes. [1][3] - **Section 232 Investigations**: This investigation covers ten product categories including copper, steel, aluminum, and automobiles, imposing tariffs ranging from 25% to 50%, with a total scale of approximately $300-400 billion. A new round of investigations includes copper, timber, and semiconductors, estimated at $650 billion, accounting for 20% of total imports. [1][6] - **Fentanyl Tariffs**: The U.S. has imposed a 20% tariff on fentanyl-related products from China and 25% on those from Canada and Mexico, using it as leverage in trade negotiations. [1][7][8] - **Impact on Chinese Manufacturing**: The tariff policies are designed to suppress Chinese manufacturing and serve as negotiation tools in U.S.-China trade talks. [1][8] - **Market Predictions for 2025**: The market is expected to experience a volatile upward trend, shifting from policy-driven to fundamentals and liquidity-driven factors. Key sectors to watch include light manufacturing, non-bank financials, electronics, and social services, with projected profit growth rates of 37.2%, 33%, 19.1%, 17.4%, and 15.9% respectively. [2][9][10] Additional Important Insights - **REITs Market Performance**: The public REITs market has seen a decline, with a negative return of 1.26% this week. The REITs index closed at 142.35 points. [12] - **Market Trading Volume**: The top three trading volumes were in sectors related to housing and infrastructure, indicating a shift in investor interest. [13] - **Investment Style Performance**: Small-cap investment strategies have shown significant excess returns in event-driven opportunities, outperforming broader indices. [17] - **Sector Performance Variability**: Different sectors exhibit varied performance in fundamental factors, with transportation and real estate showing positive returns in key metrics. [16] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the implications of tariff policies, market predictions, and sector performance trends.

Market Performance - The major indices experienced slight increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3510.18, up 0.01%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10696.10, up 0.61% [2] - The ChiNext Index led the gains with a rise of 0.80%, closing at 2207.10, while the STAR 50 Index increased by 1.48% to 994.45 [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Non-Bank Financials, which rose by 2.02%, and Computers, which increased by 1.93% [3] - Conversely, the Banking sector saw a decline of 2.41%, and the Coal sector fell by 0.60% [3] - Concept stocks such as Rare Earth Permanent Magnet and MLOps showed strong performance, with gains of 5.64% and 3.05% respectively [3] Market Outlook - The market showed a mixed performance with a notable rebound in the Rare Earth Permanent Magnet concept stocks and active trading in CRO concept stocks [4] - The overall market sentiment was positive, with more stocks rising than falling, indicating a healthy market environment [4] - The report anticipates a cautious bullish outlook for the market, particularly as it stabilizes around the 3500-point mark, with a focus on technology growth and sectors benefiting from consumer recovery expectations [6]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown strong upward momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3500-point mark and trading volume exceeding 1.7 trillion yuan [2] - The financial sector has led the market rally, supported by a surge in short-term capital chasing high-performing stocks as semi-annual earnings forecasts are released [2] - Institutions suggest that investors should shift from a trading strategy to a holding strategy in light of the market's transition from a stock-based to an incremental market [4][5] Group 2 - Positive factors for the A-share market continue to accumulate, with strong risk appetite reflected in trading behavior and capital flows [3] - The market is increasingly focusing on fundamental factors rather than external disturbances, indicating a shift in pricing dynamics [3] - The strong upward trend in the A-share market is expected to continue, with significant conditions for a major rally accumulating [3] Group 3 - The market has seen a shift from net outflows to net inflows in actively managed public funds since June, marking a reversal in the trend of capital withdrawal [4] - Different sectors, including non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, and gaming, have shown synchronized upward movement, indicating the presence of incremental capital across various funding entities [5] Group 4 - The performance of semi-annual earnings is crucial for trading strategies, with sectors like TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) expected to perform well [6] - High-growth industries such as automotive parts, automation equipment, and consumer goods are recommended for investment, alongside sectors with improving performance like precious metals and pharmaceuticals [6] - Predictions indicate that industries such as light industry, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials may experience high growth rates in their semi-annual earnings [6]

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing macroeconomic adjustments aimed at addressing "involution" in corporate competition, emphasizing the need for quality improvement and orderly exit of outdated capacities [7][8][9] - The A-share market has shown resilience despite external uncertainties, with significant participation from retail investors and a focus on sectors like technology and finance [12][15][19] - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating its industrialization, with key milestones set for 2027 and 2030, indicating a robust growth trajectory [35][36] Macro Economic Analysis - Recent macro policies focus on promoting a unified national market and addressing low-price competition among enterprises, with an emphasis on enhancing product quality [7][8] - The construction and cement industries are implementing "anti-involution" measures, including production cuts to stabilize the market [8] - Consumer policies are being optimized to stimulate spending, with initiatives like tax refunds and subsidies to boost consumption [8] Market Strategy - The report identifies two main opportunities in the market: the resurgence of new stocks and thematic investments in deep-sea technology, which are expected to outperform in the current economic climate [13][19] - A suggested investment strategy includes a diversified approach focusing on technology, military, finance, and stable dividend stocks, alongside gold [19] Industry Insights - The solid-state battery sector is experiencing rapid advancements, with companies like Ningde Times and others making significant progress towards mass production [35][36] - The REITs market is showing strong performance, with environmental REITs leading the way, indicating a favorable investment environment for income-generating assets [39][41] - The non-bank financial sector is witnessing a positive outlook, particularly for brokerage firms, as they report better-than-expected mid-year results [44][45] Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the liquor industry, such as Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, as they are expected to recover from recent demand pressures [32][33] - In the semiconductor sector, companies involved in probe station equipment are highlighted for their growth potential, driven by increasing domestic demand and technological advancements [29][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high point of this round of liquidity has basically been confirmed. The debt - to - GDP ratio of the real sector is expected to decline, and the country is in a marginal deleveraging process. The liquidity of the financial sector has marginally tightened, and the focus is on when the stock - bond ratio will return to favoring bonds. Currently, long - term bonds have a slightly better cost - performance than value - type equity assets. [2][7] - In the contraction cycle, the extent to which the stock - bond ratio favors equities is limited, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. Red - chip stocks are recommended, including an A + H red - chip portfolio of 20 stocks and an A - share portfolio of 20 stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation. [8][62] Summary by Directory 1. National Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In May 2025, the debt growth rate of the real sector was 8.9%, down from 9.0% previously. April is expected to be the high point of the debt growth rate of the real sector this year, with a decline starting in June, a rebound in July, and then a return to deleveraging. By the end of the year, the debt growth rate of the real sector is expected to drop to around 8%. The local government debt growth rate reached a new high of 15.3% in June, exceeding market expectations, and is expected to decline to around 12.5% by the end of the year. The liquidity of the financial sector has marginally tightened, and the peak of the loose liquidity since early June was from July 4th to 8th. [2][16][17] - **Fiscal Policy**: Last week, the net increase in government bonds was 32.14 billion yuan (higher than the planned 340 million yuan), and this week, the planned net increase is 17.83 billion yuan. [3][17] - **Monetary Policy**: Last week, the average weekly trading volume of funds increased, the price of funds decreased, and the term spread slightly narrowed. The yield of one - year treasury bonds trended upward, closing at 1.37% at the weekend. The estimated lower limit of the one - year treasury bond yield is about 1.3%, the term spread between the ten - year and one - year treasury bonds is about 30 basis points, and the lower limit of the ten - year treasury bond yield is about 1.6%. The spread between the thirty - year and ten - year treasury bonds is estimated to be 20 basis points, and the lower limit of the thirty - year treasury bond yield is about 1.8%. [3][17] - **Asset Side**: In May, the physical volume data was weaker than in April. The focus is on the duration of the current economic slowdown. The target for the annual real economic growth rate in 2025 is around 5%, and the nominal economic growth rate target is around 4.9%. It remains to be seen whether a nominal economic growth rate of around 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years. [4][5][18] 2. Stock - Bond Cost - Performance and Stock - Bond Style - **Last Week's Situation**: The liquidity marginally tightened. It was a bull market for stocks and a bear market for bonds. The equity style rotated back to growth - dominance, exceeding expectations. Bond yields rose across the board, with the ten - year treasury bond yield rising 2 basis points to 1.67%, the one - year treasury bond yield rising 3 basis points to 1.37%, and the thirty - year treasury bond yield rising 2 basis points to 1.87%. The stock - bond cost - performance favored stocks. The broad - based rotation strategy underperformed the CSI 300 index by - 0.4 pct last week but has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 4.48 pct since its establishment in July, with a maximum drawdown of 12.1% (compared to 15.7% for the CSI 300). [6][20] - **Trend Judgment**: In 2025, the real GDP growth rate on the asset side is expected to run smoothly between 4 - 5%. On the liability side, the debt growth rate of the real sector will decline. The stock - bond cost - performance will trend towards favoring bonds, and the equity style will trend towards favoring value. Currently, long - term bonds have a slightly better cost - performance than value - type equity assets. If equity - type value assets continue to fall, there may be a good entry opportunity. This week, the recommended portfolio includes the Dividend Index (40% position), the SSE 50 Index (40% position), and the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF (20% position). [7][19][22] 3. Industry Recommendation 3.1 Industry Performance Review - The A - share market rose this week, with trading volume similar to last week. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.8%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.4%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, real estate, steel, non - bank finance, comprehensive, and building materials had the largest increases, rising 6.1%, 4.4%, 4%, 3.8%, and 3.3% respectively. Coal, banking, automobiles, and household appliances had the largest declines, with weekly declines of 1.1%, 1%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively. [27] 3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - **Crowding**: As of July 11th, the top five industries in terms of crowding were computer, electronics, non - bank finance, pharmaceutical biology, and power equipment, with crowding levels of 11.2%, 9.9%, 8.9%, 7.4%, and 6.8% respectively. The bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and environmental protection, with levels of 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.7%, 0.7%, and 0.8% respectively. The top five industries with the largest increase in crowding this week were non - bank finance, non - ferrous metals, computer, banking, and real estate, with increases of 3.9%, 2%, 1.3%, 1%, and 0.7% respectively. The top five with the largest decline were electronics, power equipment, national defense and military industry, pharmaceutical biology, and basic chemicals, with changes of - 3.7%, - 1.4%, - 0.9%, - 0.8%, and - 0.8% respectively. [30] - **Trading Volume**: The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market this week was 1.5 trillion yuan, slightly up from 1.44 trillion yuan last week. Real estate, public utilities, non - bank finance, building materials, and comprehensive had the highest year - on - year growth rates in trading volume, with changes of 78.3%, 58.3%, 48.6%, 37.8%, and 34.5% respectively. National defense and military industry, automobiles, electronics, environmental protection, and basic chemicals had the smallest increases in trading volume, with changes of - 36.7%, - 15%, - 14.4%, - 12.8%, and - 6.8% respectively. [32] 3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - **PE(TTM) Changes**: Among the Shenwan primary industries this week, real estate, steel, non - bank finance, comprehensive, and environmental protection had the largest increases in PE(TTM), with changes of 6.1%, 4.8%, 3.9%, 3.8%, and 3.7% respectively. Banking, coal, automobiles, and household appliances had the largest declines, with valuation changes of - 1%, - 0.9%, - 0.5%, and - 0.4% respectively. [35] - **Valuation - Earnings Matching**: As of July 11, 2025, industries with high full - year 2024 earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banking, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, transportation, beauty care, and consumer electronics. [36] 3.4 Industry Prosperity - **External Demand**: Generally rebounded. The global manufacturing PMI rose from 49.5 to 50.3 in June, with most major economies' PMIs rising. The CCFI index fell 2.18% week - on - week in the latest week. Port cargo throughput decreased. South Korea's export growth rate rose from - 1.3% in June to 4.3%, and to 9.5% in the first 10 days of July. Vietnam's export growth rate slightly decreased from 20.7% in May to 19.3% in June. [40] - **Domestic Demand**: Second - hand housing prices fell in the latest week, and quantitative indicators showed mixed trends. Highway truck traffic decreased. The fitted industrial capacity utilization rate of ten industries significantly declined in April 2025, rebounded from May to June, and continued to rise slightly in July. Automobile sales were at a relatively high level for the same period in history, new - home sales remained at a historical low, and second - hand home sales declined seasonally compared to history. As of July 6th, the national urban second - hand housing listing price index fell 0.27% week - on - week. As of July 4th, the producer price index rose 0.6% week - on - week. [40] 3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the second week of July (July 7 - 11), half of the active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. The 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% weekly returns were 2.1%, 1.6%, 1.3%, and 0.7% respectively, while the CSI 300 rose 0.8% this week. - As of July 11th, the net asset value of active public equity funds was estimated to be 3.57 trillion yuan, slightly down from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024. [56] 3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the contraction cycle, the extent to which the stock - bond ratio favors equities is limited, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. Red - chip stocks are recommended to have three characteristics: no expansion, good profitability, and survival. Combining these characteristics with the under - allocation in the public fund's quarterly reports, the recommended A + H red - chip portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation. [62]

2025 年 07 月 13 日 银行：会跌倒么？ 本周上证指数涨 1.09%，创业板指涨 2.36%，恒生指数涨 0.93%，大盘股涨幅居前，本周全 A 日均交易额 14961 亿，环比上周有所上升。这点符合我们在上期周报《最佳的选择："创"》 的判断："大盘指数维持强势"，但眼下不急于对大盘指数"牛不牛"下判断（尤其是快牛）， "找准结构和方向"依然是最重要的。现阶段风险偏好抬升是定价核心矛盾，科技科创依然 是维持占优推荐，而相对低估值分位的大盘成长（创业板指）或将成为最为受益的方向。同 时，在上周周报中我们强调今年本轮 A 股大盘整体超预期偏强：即银行板块贡献了上半年绝 大多数的涨幅，上证指数从年初的 3347 点涨到最新 3510 点附近，银行对大盘贡献高达到 118.13 点。客观而言，只要银行维持上涨，那么"银行搭台、多方唱戏"将延续，大盘较难"二 次探底"。 本周五大盘指数出现冲高回落，对应银行板块发生下跌，市场生怕"银行跌倒"？目前银行 确实涨很久了，难免会有见顶回落的忧虑。我们认为现在没看到明确的理由，暂不是看空银 行的时候。目前，从估值提升的角度，资金对于银行的抱团大致接近 2020 年中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this week, driven by increased risk appetite and positive market sentiment, with the ChiNext index experiencing the largest gains among major indices [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market has rebounded this week, influenced by rising policy expectations and improved market sentiment, with most major indices showing upward trends [3]. - The ChiNext index recorded the highest increase among major indices this week [3]. - Sector performance varied, with real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors performing relatively well [3]. Group 2: Industry Earnings Outlook - The upcoming earnings season is expected to favor industries with strong mid-year performance, as these sectors typically see better stock price movements in July and August [4]. - Historical data indicates that industries with strong earnings in July and August have a higher probability of achieving excess returns [4]. - The manufacturing sector is predicted to have the highest earnings growth, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 10.0%, followed by TMT and financial real estate sectors [4]. - The TMT sector is expected to show the most significant improvement, with a projected year-on-year growth increase of 5.8 percentage points [4]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Earnings Predictions - High predicted net profit growth rates are expected in the light industry, non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, electronics, and social services sectors [5]. - In contrast, sectors such as steel, real estate, coal, oil and petrochemicals, and public utilities may face profit growth pressures [5]. - The construction materials, electronics, communications, retail, and computer sectors are anticipated to show significant improvement compared to the first quarter [5]. - The overall pre-announcement rate for A-share earnings is currently at 72%, with high pre-announcement rates in real estate, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and environmental protection sectors [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The market is expected to trend upwards in the second half of the year, potentially reaching new highs, with a shift from policy-driven to fundamentals and liquidity-driven market dynamics [6]. - Short-term focus should be on sectors with favorable mid-year earnings, while long-term attention should be on three main lines: domestic consumption, technological self-reliance, and dividend stocks [6]. - In the domestic consumption sector, attention should be given to subsidy-related and offline service consumption [6]. - The technology sector should focus on AI, robotics, semiconductor supply chains, national defense, and low-altitude economy [6].

Key Points Summary Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the financial markets, highlighting the impact of government policies, trade tensions, and market performance across different sectors. Group 1: Important Events Review - On July 11, the Ministry of Finance issued a notice to guide insurance funds towards long-term stable investments, enhancing the performance evaluation system for state-owned commercial insurance companies, with a focus on long-term investment stability and sustainability [1]. - Trump announced tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% on several countries, including Brazil, Canada, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam, effective August 1, which raises concerns about trade relations [1]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year in June, while the PPI fell by 3.6% year-on-year, indicating a weak inflation environment [1]. Group 2: Market Performance - The A-share market continued to rise, driven by expectations of increased real estate policy support, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3500 points [4]. - The Hong Kong stock market saw a slight increase, influenced by the strong performance of financial and real estate sectors, while previous hot sectors like new consumption showed a decline [6]. - The US stock market experienced volatility due to rising tariff risks, leading to a more uncertain trading environment [7]. Group 3: Debt and Equity Market Analysis - The bond market experienced slight adjustments due to the active equity market, but the weak price index data did not create significant negative pressure on bonds [3]. - The equity market showed strong performance, particularly in large financial and capacity-reduction related sectors, although there are signs of divergence in market sentiment [9]. - The bond market's value proposition improved, suggesting a potential for strategic positioning despite short-term adjustments [8].

Market Overview - A-shares have shown a strong upward trend for three consecutive weeks, with the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing above 3500 points, indicating a significant recovery in market sentiment [1][3]. Economic Data - A series of important economic indicators, including import and export data, financial statistics, and GDP figures, are set to be released next week. The second quarter GDP growth rate is expected to be around 5%, slightly lower than the first quarter but still within a reasonable range [3][4]. - Key details to monitor include the resilience of export data and whether M2 growth remains above 8%. Positive data could further boost market confidence, while disappointing figures may lead to short-term volatility [3]. Policy Developments - Recent favorable policies include guidance from the Ministry of Finance to encourage long-term investments from insurance funds, potentially injecting trillions of yuan into the market [3]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting the "AI + Manufacturing" initiative, which supports the application of large models and intelligent systems in enterprises, creating new investment opportunities [3]. Global Market Influence - U.S. stock indices closed higher, with Nvidia surpassing a market capitalization of $4 trillion, reflecting strong global investor confidence in technology [4]. - The Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate meeting is anticipated to maintain a cautious stance, with a low probability of rate cuts, suggesting limited direct impact on A-shares from global market fluctuations [4]. Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently in a pullback phase after breaking through a resistance level, with strong support around the 3500-point mark. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages have formed a golden cross, indicating a positive trend [4]. - The ChiNext Index is supported by the 2000-point level and the 20-day moving average, while the CSI 1000 Index has recently reclaimed its 60-month moving average, signaling potential upward momentum [4]. Capital Flow - Recent data indicates a shift in main capital flows, with non-bank financials, computers, and metals sectors experiencing gains, while the banking sector saw a pullback [5]. - Notably, the electronics and power equipment sectors have attracted significant net inflows, aligning with supportive policies [5]. - Upcoming unlocks of restricted shares from 33 companies, valued at approximately 26.2 billion yuan, may present potential risks, particularly in stocks like Tianyue Advanced and Maiwei Biological [5]. Investment Strategy - The market is likely to maintain a fluctuating upward trend, with intense competition around the 3500-point level. Investors are advised to focus on three key areas: financial technology, high-end manufacturing, and consumption upgrades [6]. - Opportunities for low-entry positions should be considered, especially in sectors that have seen significant prior gains, while sectors like electricity and pharmaceuticals may become the next focus for capital rotation [6]. - Maintaining a flexible position is recommended, with a suggested holding level of 60-70% to accommodate unexpected market changes [6].