Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index rose to 7.08% as of July 6, 2025, up from 6.00% on June 29, marking an increase of 1.08%[2] - Domestic flight executions increased to 14,400 flights in the first five days of July, a year-on-year increase of 3%[8] - The operating rate of asphalt plants rose to 32.7% as of July 9, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%[15] Consumer Trends - Retail sales of passenger cars showed a year-on-year increase of 1% as of July 6, down from 3% previously, and June's total was 15%[8] - The sales area of commercial residential properties in 67 cities decreased by 24% year-on-year in the first 11 days of July, compared to a 17.6% decline in June[3] - The land premium rate fell to 4.88% as of July 6, down from 5.47% in June[9] Price Movements - Resource prices continued to rise, with Shanxi thermal coal prices increasing by 1.4%, and rebar prices in Shanghai rising by 1.9%[46] - The national average price of second-hand homes fell by 0.3% as of June 30, with first-tier cities down by 0.2%[47] - The overall price index for agricultural products rose, with vegetable prices increasing by 1.8% and fruit prices by 2.1%[46] Debt and Interest Rates - New special bond issuance accelerated, with 2.39 trillion yuan issued this year, achieving 54.3% of the annual target, compared to 39.3% last year[54] - As of July 11, 2025, the yields on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds were 1.3702%, 1.5292%, and 1.6653%, respectively, reflecting increases of 3.4bps, 3.63bps, and 2.2bps from the previous week[67]

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" research trend is gaining momentum in the A-share market, with expectations that it may become the main theme for the next market phase, benefiting various sectors such as lithium batteries, photovoltaics, coal, steel, chemicals, energy, and construction materials [2][3][4]. Group 1: Research and Analysis - In the past week, a total of 176 research reports on the "anti-involution" theme were published by institutions, covering multiple industries including strategy, macroeconomics, steel, fossil energy, electrical equipment, building materials, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and aquaculture [2]. - The "anti-involution" theme has become a focal point in analyst roadshows, with 79 related events held in the past week, indicating a strong institutional interest [2]. - Analysts believe that the current round of "anti-involution" has a higher standing, broader coverage, and stronger synergy, with potential implications for the market's next phase [3]. Group 2: Policy and Market Implications - The Central Financial Committee's recent meeting emphasized the need to promote a unified national market and address issues of low-price competition, which has led to increased attention on "anti-involution" in the capital market [3]. - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to unfold in three stages: policy expectations, price increases, and demand expansion, with a focus on sectors that may experience a turnaround [4]. Group 3: Beneficiary Industries - Key sectors expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies include: - Midstream and downstream manufacturing such as lithium batteries, photovoltaics, wind power, passenger vehicles, paper, and medical devices - Service and consumer sectors like food processing, express delivery, and small appliances - Resource materials including steel, cement/glass, consumer building materials, chemical fibers/agricultural chemicals, and energy metals - Real estate-related sectors such as kitchen appliances and home furnishings [5][6]. - The steel industry is highlighted for its potential bottom reversal, with supply-side reforms and improved profitability expected [8]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The photovoltaic industry is entering a high-quality development phase, with significant stock price increases observed in related sectors [9]. - Analysts suggest that the photovoltaic sector's recovery will depend on effective supply-side reforms and the establishment of a long-term mechanism for eliminating outdated capacity [9]. - Recent downgrades in specific photovoltaic stocks indicate a cautious outlook despite the overall positive sentiment in the sector [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index has closed above 3500 points, suggesting a likely medium-term trend of a slow bull market characterized by fluctuations, influenced by recent tariff shocks and rising overseas uncertainties [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities, recommending a focus on sectors that may benefit from unexpected earnings in mid-year reports and those that could gain from anti-involution trends, including photovoltaic equipment, batteries, passenger vehicles, steel, fiberglass, innovative pharmaceuticals/CXO, and optical modules/PCBs [1] - The analysis highlights that the recovery in profits is expected to be gradual, with ample market liquidity and long-term funds playing a stabilizing role, while also noting that the current core incremental funds are dominated by low-risk preference rather than speculative capital [1] Group 2 - The report discusses the recent clear rotation in the market, where the "anti-involution" trend has reinforced the "high-low switch" strategy, suggesting a focus on sectors that have lagged since March 20 and may benefit from this trend, such as lithium batteries, passenger vehicles, steel, and building materials [2] - It also mentions that since July, the market has responded positively to high growth or exceeding expectations in mid-year reports, with a focus on blue-chip leaders reflecting overall industry improvement expectations, particularly in sectors like shipbuilding, CXO, semiconductor equipment, aquaculture, wind power equipment, military electronics, and overseas computing power [2] - The report notes the impact of new tariff policies initiated by Trump, which introduce uncertainties for global markets and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, as well as a recent trade agreement with Vietnam that could affect related transshipment goods with a 40% tariff [2]

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes the positive impact of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's (MIIT) advocacy for reducing internal competition in the automotive industry, which is expected to improve the fundamentals of the passenger car market [4][10]. Weekly Data - In the first week of July 2025 (June 30 - July 6), passenger car sales reached 405,000 units, up 18.7% year-on-year but down 29.9% month-on-month. New energy vehicle (NEV) sales were 215,000 units, up 25.6% year-on-year and down 27.8% month-on-month. The NEV penetration rate was 53.1%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points month-on-month [1][43]. Weekly Market Performance - The automotive sector underperformed the market in the week of July 7-11, 2025, with a decline of 0.26%, ranking 30th among sub-industries. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.15%. Among sub-sectors, automotive services and parts saw increases of 3.52% and 0.33%, while commercial vehicles, passenger cars, motorcycles, and others declined by 0.25%, 1.16%, 1.32%, and 1.78% respectively [2][30]. Investment Recommendations - The article recommends focusing on high-quality domestic brands that are accelerating in smart technology and globalization, specifically highlighting companies such as Geely, BYD, Li Auto, Xiaomi, and Xpeng [3][13]. Policy Impact - The MIIT's recent initiatives to combat internal competition include shortening payment terms for suppliers to 60 days, controlling pricing to prevent below-cost sales, and enhancing product quality checks. These measures are expected to alleviate cash flow pressures in the supply chain and shift competition from price wars to value-based competition [4][10]. Robotics Sector Insights - The acquisition of a 63.62% stake in a new material company by Zhiyuan Robotics is expected to boost interest in the robotics sector, especially with upcoming events like Tesla's Q2 2025 earnings call and the World Artificial Intelligence Conference [5][11]. Motorcycle Market Trends - The motorcycle market is experiencing growth, with sales of 250cc and above motorcycles reaching 101,000 units in May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 31.1%. The cumulative sales from January to May 2025 reached 399,000 units, up 50.4% year-on-year [18][20]. Heavy Truck Market Dynamics - Heavy truck sales in May 2025 were 83,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%. The expansion of the vehicle replacement subsidy program is expected to stimulate demand for new trucks [23][25]. Tire Industry Outlook - The tire industry is witnessing a strong performance with high operating rates and increasing demand. The average operating rate for passenger car tires was 78.11% in late April 2025, indicating robust market conditions [26][52].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive sector is expected to maintain a positive outlook, driven by three main themes: dividends, smart technology, and robotics [5][12][6]. Weekly Review Summary - In the first week of July, the compulsory insurance for vehicles reached 398,000 units, showing a week-on-week decrease of 30.2% and a month-on-month increase of 12.1% [10][51]. - The performance of various automotive segments this week ranked as follows: SW automotive parts (+0.1%) > SW automotive (-0.4%) > SW motorcycles and others (-0.4%) > SW commercial cargo vehicles (-0.6%) > SW passenger vehicles (-1.4%) > SW commercial passenger vehicles (-1.8%) [10][19]. Team Research Achievements - The team released analyses on Huawei's automotive business core competitiveness and a review of Yutong Bus's H1 sales [3][11]. Key Industry Changes - The launch event for the Li Auto i8 is scheduled for July 29 [4][11]. - Seres expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.7-3.2 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a Q2 net profit estimate of 2.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 57% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 195% [4][11]. - Leap Motor's new C11 model has been launched [4][11]. - The third annual meeting of the 2025 China Automotive Research Index (IVISTA & C-AHI) technical committee will be held [4][11]. Sector Viewpoint Reaffirmation - The automotive sector remains a strong investment focus, with a particular emphasis on dividends, smart technology, and robotics as the main investment themes [5][12]. - Key areas of market attention this week included the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's establishment of a feedback window for key automotive enterprises to implement a 60-day payment period, Trump's 30% tariffs on Mexico and the EU, and the potential reverse listing of Zhi Yuan Robotics through the acquisition of Shangwei New Materials [5][12]. Current Automotive Sector Configuration - The company believes that "only by adhering to technological innovation can the automotive industry avoid internal competition and move towards healthy development," and continues to favor the three main themes for 2025: dividends & good structure, AI smart technology, and AI robotics [6][12]. - Recommendations for the dividend & good structure theme include passenger vehicles (Yutong Bus), heavy trucks (China National Heavy Duty Truck Group A-H / Weichai Power), and parts suppliers (Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., New Spring Co., Jifeng Co.) [7][12]. - For the AI smart technology theme, preferred stocks include Hong Kong-listed passenger vehicles (Xpeng Motors-W, Li Auto-W, Xiaomi Group-W) and A-shares (Seres, SAIC Motor, BYD), with parts suppliers including Horizon Robotics-W, China Automotive Research, Desay SV, Bertley, and Heisima Intelligent [7][12]. - The AI robotics theme favors parts suppliers such as Top Group, Junsheng Electronics, Fuda Co., Aikedi, Ruihu Mould, and Jingzhu Technology [7][12]. Weekly Automotive Market Performance - The automotive sector's performance in A-shares ranked 30th this week, while in Hong Kong, the automotive and parts sector ranked 11th [16][19].

Core Insights - The 2025 Forbes China Best CEO list features 25 new CEOs and 19 returning ones, with a record number of 9 CEOs from the post-80s generation [2] - The average stock price increase for the 50 CEOs' companies during the assessment period was 79%, and the average net profit growth rate exceeded 50% [2] - Wang Ning from Pop Mart achieved a net profit increase of 3 times to 3.4 billion RMB and a stock price increase of 9 times, leading to a market capitalization surpassing 300 billion RMB [2] - The list reflects a shift towards consumer sector leaders, with notable entries from companies like BaWang Tea and MiXue Group, indicating a rise in consumer-focused CEOs [4] - The healthcare sector saw a significant increase in representation from CEOs based in midwestern cities, with the number of healthcare CEOs rising from 2 to 5 [5] Group 1: CEO Performance - Wang Chuanfu of BYD retained the title of "Best CEO" for the fifth consecutive year, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 170.36 billion RMB, a 36% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 9.16 billion RMB [3] - The consumer sector's representation on the list increased significantly, with 9 CEOs, including Zhang Junjie from BaWang Tea, marking the first entry of a post-90s CEO [4] - The technology sector also saw emerging leaders, such as Wang Ye from Ninebot, who reported a revenue of 5.1 billion RMB in Q1, a 99.5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit increase of 236% [4] Group 2: Notable Entries and Trends - The list includes 6 returning CEOs, with Ma Huateng of Tencent making a notable comeback after 4 years, reporting a stock price increase of 51.8% and a net profit surge of 68% to 194.07 billion RMB [5] - Female CEO representation decreased to 3 after reaching a historical high last year, with Zhou Qunfei of Lens Technology being a key figure focusing on new consumer electronics [5] - The assessment period for the list was from May 30, 2023, to May 30, 2025, emphasizing long-term performance over short-term financial metrics [11][12]

Group 1: Market Overview - From July 1-6, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 238,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 1%, but a decrease of 6% compared to the previous month. Cumulative retail sales for the year reached 11.14 million units, up 11% year-on-year [1][3] - In the same period, wholesale sales of passenger cars were 233,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 39% and no change from the previous month. Cumulative wholesale sales for the year reached 13.51 million units, up 13% year-on-year [1][5] - The retail penetration rate for new energy vehicles (NEVs) was 56.7%, with retail sales of 135,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 21% but a decrease of 11% from the previous month. Cumulative retail sales of NEVs reached 6.58 million units, up 37% year-on-year [1][3] Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - The domestic economic situation has improved, particularly in exports, stabilizing domestic demand. July is expected to be a month of adjustment in the car market, with a structural differentiation in growth [3][4] - The trend of "old-for-new" vehicle replacement is anticipated to strengthen in the second half of the year, with recommendations for local governments to improve budget planning for subsidies [4][6] - The automotive industry is increasingly driven by both domestic and international demand, with a notable improvement in industry order and a strong start to production and sales in July [5][6] Group 3: Pricing Analysis - The number of models with price reductions has significantly decreased in 2025, with only 14 models in June compared to higher numbers in earlier months. The average price reduction for new energy vehicles was 12% in the first half of 2025 [8][9] - The average price reduction for conventional fuel vehicles was 8.9% in the first half of 2025, indicating a trend of stabilizing prices in the market [9][10] Group 4: Used Car Market Insights - The used car market in China is experiencing growth, with a transaction volume of 7.91 million units in the first five months of 2025, up 0.6% year-on-year, although transaction value decreased by 2.1% [9][10] - The potential for the used car market is significant, especially with the development of new energy vehicles, which provide consumers with lower-cost options for car ownership [10]

Macroeconomic Overview - In June, China's CPI year-on-year was 0.1%, exceeding expectations of 0.0% and the previous month's value of -0.1% [3] - The core CPI year-on-year reached 0.7%, the highest since April 2024, compared to 0.6% in May [3] - June's PPI year-on-year was -3.6%, the lowest since July 2023, with expectations of -3.2% [4] Advanced Manufacturing Sector - In June, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.084 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18.1% and a month-on-month increase of 7.6% [7] - The production of new energy passenger vehicles in June reached 1.2 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28.3% [7] - The top five companies in new energy vehicle exports in June were BYD, Chery, Tesla China, SAIC Passenger Vehicle, and SAIC-GM-Wuling [7] Consumer Sector - Yanjing Beer projected a net profit of 1.06 to 1.14 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 40% to 50% [9] - The second quarter net profit is estimated to be between 900 million to 970 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 36.7% to 48.3% [9] - Despite a slight decline in sales due to a June alcohol ban, the overall profit growth remains robust, with U8's sales ratio exceeding 30% in several provinces [9]

Group 1 - The cumulative retail sales of passenger cars reached 10.901 million units in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.8%. The market share of domestic brands is 64%, an increase of 7.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1][2] - The top ten car manufacturers by sales have undergone a reshuffle, with BYD maintaining the first position, followed by Geely, FAW-Volkswagen, Changan, and Chery, all exceeding 600,000 units in sales. BYD and Geely surpassed one million units sold [1] - The traditional dominance of SAIC Volkswagen, FAW-Volkswagen, and SAIC-GM in the top three has changed, with only FAW-Volkswagen remaining in the top ten, while SAIC-GM has dropped out [1][2] Group 2 - The overall performance of domestic brands in the first half of the year was strong, with significant growth in the new energy vehicle sector led by companies like BYD, Geely, and Changan, as well as breakthroughs in overseas markets [2] - The market is experiencing intensified competition, with some companies facing declining sales and potential marginalization. Sustainable development requires companies to solidify their advantages in electric vehicle technology, expand scale effectively, and build differentiated competitiveness [3] - The market has shown resilience due to policies promoting consumption, with local governments implementing measures to stimulate sales, leading to a positive trend in June. However, a structural differentiation in growth is evident, with traditional fuel vehicle production capacity remaining high amid a shrinking market [3]

Group 1 - Trump expresses dissatisfaction with Putin and threatens additional sanctions against Russia, while approving more defensive weapons for Ukraine [2] - French President Macron's state visit to the UK marks the first since 2008 and the first EU leader visit post-Brexit [3] - Japan reports a record high of 16,943 people hospitalized due to heatstroke in June, the highest since 2010 [4] Group 2 - The State Council of China issues guidelines to enhance the efficiency of administrative services and streamline processes [5] - The National Development and Reform Commission allocates an additional 10 billion yuan for employment initiatives, expected to benefit 310,000 people [6] - A joint notice from several Chinese departments emphasizes the development of zero-carbon parks and renewable energy utilization [7] Group 3 - The National Health Commission aims to increase the availability of childcare services, targeting 4.5 spots for every 1,000 people by 2025 [8] - The China Securities Association initiates a comprehensive survey of the securities industry to inform the upcoming development report [9][10] - The passenger car market in China sees retail sales of 2.084 million units in June, a year-on-year increase of 18.1% [11] Group 4 - The e-commerce logistics index in China reaches a new high in June, driven by consumer demand and promotional activities [12] - Beijing releases the first national model contract for live-streaming e-commerce, aiming to clarify responsibilities and promote industry standards [13] - Jiangsu province leads in leisure and entertainment consumption orders during the "Su Super" event, with a growth rate of around 40% [14] Group 5 - Hangzhou accelerates the development of brain-like intelligence projects, supporting enterprises in scaling up [15] - An investigation in Gansu reveals that abnormal lead levels in children were due to illegal food practices [16] - Trump threatens high tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals, causing a surge in copper prices [18] Group 6 - The U.S. Supreme Court allows the government to proceed with significant federal agency layoffs [19] - Iran denies requesting talks with the U.S., countering Trump's claims of arranged discussions [20] - A forest fire in southern France has burned over 700 hectares, injuring at least nine firefighters [21] Group 7 - Trump announces a 36% tariff on imports from Thailand, prompting a strong response from Thai officials [22] - Zhuhai Wanda undergoes significant leadership changes, marking a departure from its previous management [23] - GAC Fiat Chrysler declares bankruptcy due to an inability to meet debt obligations [24] Group 8 - Institutional investors sold 21 stocks while buying 5.42 billion yuan worth of Dazhihui shares on July 8 [26] - The U.S. stock market shows mixed results, with Intel shares rising over 7% [29] - The competitive landscape between Meituan and Alibaba in the food delivery sector intensifies, impacting service providers [30]