| *业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月11日 | | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解销 | 122800 | 123900 | -1100 | -0.89% | 7C/HT | | 1#金川镇 | 123900 | 125000 | -1100 | -0.88% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镍升贴水 | 2400 | 2400 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇 | 121600 | 122700 | -1100 | -0.90% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镍升贴水 | 100 | 100 | 0 | - | 元/肥 | | LME 0-3 | -189 | -180 | -a | 4.96% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | -3024 | -3476 | 452 | -13.00% | 元/吨 | | ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/11 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/04 130 945 105791 31933 -863.51 389.51 81.0 98.0 48.48 141350 75025 2025/06/05 80 805 105791 31687 -1366.56 279.74 79.0 98.0 93.15 138000 83300 2025/06/06 75 974 107404 32278 -1323.74 19.48 41.0 65.0 69.84 132400 77800 2025/06/09 70 944 107404 34242 -1215.58 217.42 43.0 66.0 95.78 122400 67800 2025/06/10 90 1043 107404 33746 -1195.14 161.13 43.0 66.0 84.10 120400 71725 变化 20 99 ...

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 6 月 10 日收盘，沪铝主力 07 合约下跌 0.12%至 20050 元/吨。几 内亚 AXIS 矿区被划入战略储备区域、禁止开采，博法地区两家矿企发 货中断，另一家矿企仅依靠码头剩余库存维持发货。几内亚矿端扰动尚 未对当下铝土矿供应宽松的局面造成直接冲击，其影响要等到 7 月份才 能体现在进口铝土矿的到港量上。氧化铝运行产能周度环比增加 135 万 吨至 9065 万吨，全国氧化铝库存周度环比减少 2.9 万吨至 313.3 万吨。 随着检修式减产产能的逐步复产，以及部分新产能的逐步释放，氧化铝 运行产能逐步回升。不过几内亚矿端扰动尚未体现到氧化铝的生产，影 响仍不可忽视。电解铝运行产能周度环比持平于 4413.9 万吨。四川省内 铝企复产基本完成，贵州安顺铝厂剩余 6 万吨产能仍在复产，云铝溢鑫 置换产能投产中，百色银海技改项目 12 万吨产能将于三季度通电复产。 需求方面，国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率周度环比下降 0.5%至 60.9%。光伏抢装机退坡和淡季逐步到来，铝下游开工率呈走弱态势。 库存方面，周内铝锭、铝棒社库去化，表现仍然顽强。美国经济数据整 体呈 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [7] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Although downstream consumption is affected by holidays and the short - term开工率 of copper products and wire and cable may be under pressure, the mine - end supply is still highly disrupted. The low TC price and the strong silver price drive up the copper price. It is recommended to buy hedging on dips, with the buying range at 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On June 9, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 78,580 yuan/ton and closed at 78,910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.03% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,920 yuan/ton and closed at 79,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.84% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - There was still a brand price difference problem in the spot market yesterday. Downstream procurement sentiment was poor, and holders did not continue to offer large discounts due to the approaching delivery. Today, as the delivery approaches, low - priced supplies are hard to find. It is expected that the spot will continue to be traded at a small premium in the second half of the week [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: No important economic data was released. There were events such as California suing the Trump administration, and the US Department of Justice asking to extend the suspension of the Trump tariff invalidation judgment. The US government may run out of funds for debt repayment between mid - August and the end of September. The "One Big Beautiful Bill" is under Senate review [3] - **Domestic**: In May, CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year; PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year. In the first five months, China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 2.5% year - on - year, and the trade volume with the US decreased by 8.1% [3] Mine End - In May 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 293.5 tons, and from January to May, it was 12.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. There was a 6.4 - magnitude earthquake in Chile, but no damage to mines or casualties were reported [4] Smelting and Import - The Tsumeb copper smelter in Namibia of Zhongkuang Resources Group has temporarily suspended copper smelting due to the global shortage of copper concentrates. In May 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, and from January to May, it was 2.169 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.7% [4] Consumption - From May 30 to June 5, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises dropped to 74.87%, 1.03 percentage points lower than the previous week and 2.27 percentage points lower than expected. The copper cable industry's operating rate was 76.08%, a week - on - week decline of 2.59 percentage points. New orders were weak, and it is expected that the short - term operating rate will still be under pressure [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000 tons to 122,400 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,964 tons to 34,242 tons. On June 8, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 149,500 tons, an increase of 700 tons compared with the previous week [5]

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/10 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/03 215 1019 105791 31404 -652.82 409.92 85.0 100.0 52.31 143850 74375 2025/06/04 130 945 105791 31933 -863.51 389.51 81.0 98.0 48.48 141350 75025 2025/06/05 80 805 105791 31687 -1366.56 279.74 79.0 98.0 93.15 138000 83300 2025/06/06 75 974 107404 32278 -1323.74 19.48 41.0 65.0 69.84 132400 77800 2025/06/09 70 944 107404 34242 -1215.58 217.42 43.0 66.0 95.78 122400 67800 变化 -5 - ...

◆ 铜： 截至 6 月 9 日收盘，沪铜主力 07 合约上涨 0.13%至 78910 元/吨。关 税对铜价影响再度提升，中美元首通话也带来利多预期，铜价偏强，振 幅扩大。基本面上，国内硫酸市场多区域上行趋势明显，炼厂生产得以 维持，精铜产量依然保持高位，但供应端的扰动及极低的 TC 依然对铜价 有潜在支撑。目前铜社会库存低位企稳，市场消费呈现下滑趋势，炼厂 则考虑安排出口。市场高升水、高月差在铜价上涨之后有所转弱。整体 来看，下游消费逐渐由旺转淡，基本面的支撑相较此前有所减弱，铜价 上行空间将受到限制。但基于目前库存仍维持低位，供应端扰动仍存， 下跌空间同样有限。沪铜近期或仍维持震荡格局。 ◆ 铝： 截至 6 月 9 日收盘，沪铝主力 07 合约下跌 0.20%至 20025 元/吨。几 内亚 AXIS 矿区被划入战略储备区域、禁止开采，博法地区两家矿企发 货中断，另一家矿企仅依靠码头剩余库存维持发货。几内亚矿端扰动尚 未对当下铝土矿供应宽松的局面造成直接冲击，其影响要等到 7 月份才 能体现在进口铝土矿的到港量上。氧化铝运行产能周度环比增加 135 万 吨至 9065 万吨，全国氧化铝库存周度环比减少 2 ...

Industry Overview - The current copper industry chain in China is facing challenges characterized by "tight raw material imports, severe smelting competition, and difficult processing survival" [1] - Copper prices have shown a "roller coaster" trend this year, with the main futures contract experiencing significant fluctuations, reaching a peak before a sharp decline [2] - Analysts predict that copper prices will fluctuate between 75,000 to 83,000 yuan/ton in the coming month, with a strong resistance to decline in the medium to long term [1][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The core contradiction in the recent high-level copper price fluctuations is the "strong reality versus weak expectations" [2] - Domestic social inventory is at a historically low level, and actual copper consumption in China remains strong, supported by investments in power grids, home appliances, and new energy sectors [2] - Supply-side challenges include ongoing tightness in copper concentrate supply and expectations of production cuts at overseas smelting plants [2][3] Profitability and Business Strategies - The copper industry chain is currently under pressure, with upstream mining companies facing rising costs, midstream smelting companies forced to reduce production due to negative processing fees, and downstream processing companies struggling with unstable overseas trade [4] - Companies are adopting strategies such as exploring domestic and international copper resource supply sources and expanding recycled copper resources to ensure supply chain reliability [4] - The proportion of high-end products in copper processing is expected to increase significantly, with high-end products projected to account for 28% of total copper processing materials by 2025, up from 12% in 2020 [4][5] Transition to High-End Products - The copper processing industry is accelerating its transition to high-end products, with companies like Jintian Co. focusing on new energy sectors and advanced technologies [6] - The demand for high-purity copper and environmentally friendly products is increasing, necessitating continuous R&D and product iteration to meet higher technical requirements from downstream clients [6][7] - Jintian Co. employs a pricing strategy based on "raw material prices + processing fees," with profits primarily derived from processing fees [6] Risk Management - To mitigate risks associated with copper price fluctuations, companies like Jintian Co. engage in hedging based on order and production needs [7] - Commodity trading service providers are also playing a role in optimizing inventory, capacity, and risk management for enterprises in the industry [7]

| 产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月9日 | | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解镍 | 123400 | 123100 | 300 | 0.24% | 7C/HT | | 1#多川镇 | 124500 | 124200 | 300 | 0.24% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镍升贴水 | 2450 | 2450 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇 | 122300 | 122100 | 200 | 0.16% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇升贴水 | 250 | 350 | -100 | -- | 元/肥 | | LME 0-3 | -182 | -189 | 7 | -3.68% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | -3595 | -3563 | -32 | 0.90% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to experience high - level oscillations. The long - term strategic allocation value of gold is high due to the ongoing global order reshaping, while short - term uncertainties are numerous [1]. - Silver will have a strong oscillation. With gold's high - level adjustment, there is a potential for silver to make up for the price increase, but it requires the cooperation of multiple forces to continue rising [1]. - Copper will be in a high - level consolidation. Short - term copper long positions should take profit, and there is a risk of a high - level decline, but the long - term outlook for copper remains positive [1]. - Zinc will have a range - bound oscillation. In the short - term, it will be in a low - level oscillation, and in the long - term, it has a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, so opportunities for shorting on rallies should be grasped [1]. - Lead and tin and aluminum and nickel will face pressure on rebounds. For lead, new production capacity is increasing supply while consumption is weak; for tin, short - term supply is tight but prices are under pressure after a rebound; for aluminum, inventory is accumulating and consumption is entering the off - season; for nickel, cost support is weakening and downstream inventory is accumulating [1]. - Industrial silicon and lithium carbonate should be shorted on rebounds. For industrial silicon, there are concerns about oversupply; for lithium carbonate, supply pressure is large and demand is in the off - season [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold prices oscillated at a high level because US employment data was low but consumption data was positive, and the Chinese central bank continued to buy gold, with no concentrated outbreak of systemic risk factors in the short - term [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US employment and consumption data were mixed. The Chinese central bank continued to increase its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month. There was a potential for Russia to retaliate against Ukraine. In the short - term, geopolitical variables were large, and in the long - term, the trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and the dual - loose fiscal and monetary policies remained unchanged, and the bull market was not over [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For gold, pay attention to the support at 765 and control positions for long - term investment. For silver, short - term long positions can wait for an opportunity to enter, relying on the level of 8700 [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated and consolidated at a high level [5]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply was tight. Domestic electrolytic copper production increased in May but was expected to decline in June. COMEX copper was draining global copper inventory, and there was a risk of a soft squeeze. Domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and overseas Russian copper flowed into domestic ports, causing the premium and spot premium to decline [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the better - than - expected US non - farm employment data and the slight rebound of the US dollar index, it is recommended to take profit on previous copper long positions at high levels. Be vigilant about the risk of a decline. In the long - term, there is confidence in the rise of copper prices. Short - term attention should be paid to the range of [77900, 79200] for Shanghai copper and [9600, 9800] dollars/ton for London copper [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc was in a low - level consolidation, oscillating weakly [8]. - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply was expected to be looser. The domestic zinc ore processing fee increased in June. The output of refined zinc decreased in May but was expected to increase in June. Downstream demand weakened, and the start - up rate of zinc - related enterprises decreased, affected by the weak steel demand [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, zinc will be in a low - level consolidation and oscillate weakly. In the long - term, with increasing supply and weak demand, opportunities for shorting on rallies should be grasped. Attention should be paid to the range of [22000, 22600] for Shanghai zinc and [2600, 2700] dollars/ton for London zinc [9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices faced pressure on rebounds, and alumina prices declined again [10]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - trade environment was uncertain. The cost decreased in May, and inventory changes showed a mixed trend. The demand side entered the off - season. For alumina, the overseas bauxite supply was stable, the operating capacity increased in June, and the inventory accumulated slightly [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [19800 - 20500]. Alumina will operate in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices faced pressure on rebounds, and stainless steel prices rebounded and then declined [12]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas, the macro - environment was uncertain. The increase in the shipment of Philippine nickel ore and the decrease in Indonesian nickel ore prices weakened cost support. Domestically, the supply of refined nickel was still in an oversupply situation, and the social inventory was relatively high. For stainless steel, it entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure increased [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [119000 - 125000] [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2507 reduced positions for 5 consecutive days and closed slightly higher [13]. - **Industry Logic**: The supply pressure was still large, and although overseas imports decreased, domestic smelters did not significantly reduce production. The terminal demand entered the off - season, and only the energy storage end provided some support. The production of lithium carbonate recovered quickly, and the expectation of inventory accumulation increased, and the sustainability of the short - term rebound was questionable [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds in the range of [60000 - 61500] [14].

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/09 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/05/30 175 665 105791 34128 -778.22 155.91 86.0 100.0 50.08 149875 74850 2025/06/03 215 1019 105791 31404 -652.82 409.92 85.0 100.0 52.31 143850 74375 2025/06/04 130 945 105791 31933 -863.51 389.51 81.0 98.0 48.48 141350 75025 2025/06/05 80 805 105791 31687 -1366.56 279.74 79.0 98.0 93.15 138000 83300 2025/06/06 75 974 105791 32278 -1323.74 19.48 41.0 65.0 69.84 132400 77800 变化 -5 ...