证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 04 日 [Table_Title] 元旦出行稳健增长，离岛免税持续亮眼 投资建议 展望 26 年，我们建议关注高景气成长赛道以及政策、科技加 持下服务业景气拐点赛道，具体包括：（1）服务消费迎来政 策及行业新需求共振，有望驱动行业拐点，包括免税、银发 旅游、育儿消费等。受益标的包括中国中免、华住酒店、锦 江酒店、首旅酒店、三峡旅游、君亭酒店、孩子王、海底 捞、百胜中国、长白山等。（2）新消费拥有需求长逻辑，景 气度有望维持，当前行业龙头估值处于相对低位，26 年仍然 拥有足够弹性，包括潮玩、茶饮、时尚黄金珠宝、保健品 等。受益标的包括泡泡玛特、名创优品、潮宏基、老铺黄 金、若羽臣、古茗、蜜雪集团等。（3）零售业态创新+出海打 开新成长空间，受益标的包括小商品城、赛维时代等。（4） AI+应用 26 年有望迎来百花齐放，从主题到商业化变现加 速，受益标的包括焦点科技、豆神教育、青木科技、科锐国 际、米奥会展等。 风险提示 宏观经济下行，居民收入及消费意愿恢复不及预期，行业竞 争加剧。 [Table_Title2] 社服零售行业周报 ...

Macro Insights - The New Year's holiday saw a significant increase in travel, with inter-regional mobility growing by 19.5% year-on-year, reaching a recent high. Short-distance "micro-vacations" have become mainstream, with strong performance in service consumption, particularly in entertainment. However, product consumption has declined due to the waning effects of year-end sales [4]. - Real estate sales are showing marginal declines, although the easing of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities has released some demand. Infrastructure and construction are still constrained by insufficient new projects [4]. - The port operations remain stable, but there is a divergence in domestic import freight rates and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). Most industries are experiencing a decline in operating rates, with petrochemicals and automotive sectors showing weak performance due to rising costs and falling demand, while emerging sectors like lithium batteries and photovoltaics are performing well [4]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is generally rising, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows mixed results. The RMB exchange rate has surpassed 7.0, with funding rates and government bond yields trending upward [4]. Strategy Insights - The A-share market is expected to see a "spring opening red" as it closed at 3968.84 points in 2025, marking an 18.41% annual increase. The market sentiment has shifted towards optimism, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut in the U.S. in 2026 [8]. - The influx of incremental capital, particularly through A500 ETF and insurance funds, is expected to solidify liquidity. The government has emphasized the need to stabilize and improve real estate market expectations, indicating a proactive approach to boosting growth [8][9]. - The central bank's fourth-quarter meeting highlighted the importance of price signals for promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with a gradual emergence of price increases in certain sectors due to improved demand and supply constraints [10]. Industry Comparisons - The technology sector, particularly in AI and emerging industrialization trends, is expected to see strong growth. The domestic chip technology breakthroughs and storage price increases are anticipated to continue, with a focus on companies with global competitive advantages [11]. - Non-bank financial institutions are likely to benefit from increased demand for wealth management and the migration of household deposits, with recommendations for insurance and brokerage firms [11]. - The cyclical sectors are showing signs of improvement, with low valuations and positioning, benefiting from policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market. Recommendations include tourism services, hotels, and consumer goods [11]. - Specific themes to watch include AI applications, robotics, commercial aerospace, and domestic consumption, with a focus on new consumption patterns and service sectors [11].

Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to welcome a "spring opening red" with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3968.84 points, marking an annual increase of 18.41% in 2025, confirming the strategic judgment of Guotai Junan [2][7] - Key factors supporting the market include the anticipated announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chair, expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts in 2026, and the influx of incremental capital represented by the A500 ETF [2][8] - The decision-making body has emphasized the need to "promote investment stabilization," indicating a stronger policy push to boost growth, particularly in the real estate sector [2][8] Group 2: Price Signals and Economic Recovery - The central bank's fourth-quarter meeting highlighted the importance of price signals in promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with price increases beginning to emerge in certain sectors since the second half of 2025 [3][11] - Specific sectors experiencing demand improvement but supply contraction include chemicals (e.g., organic silicon, refrigerants) and new energy materials (e.g., lithium carbonate) [3][11] - The current price increase cycle is characterized by demand driven by new technologies such as AI and energy storage, rather than traditional infrastructure [3][11] Group 3: Industry Comparisons - The outlook for technology, non-bank financials, and consumer sectors is positive, with strong growth expected in emerging technologies and capital goods exports [4][13] - Recommendations include technology growth stocks, non-bank financials benefiting from increased wealth management demand, and cyclical stocks positioned for recovery due to domestic demand expansion [4][13] - The focus on cyclical stocks includes those in the tourism, hotel, and consumer goods sectors, which are expected to benefit from policy support for domestic demand [4][13] Group 4: Thematic Recommendations - AI applications are expected to see significant growth, with companies like MiniMax preparing for IPOs and advancements in AI models driving demand [4][22] - The robotics sector is entering a phase of scale development, with new products being launched and significant investments in technology and supply chains [4][23] - The commercial aerospace sector is poised for growth, with new guidelines for IPOs and advancements in reusable rocket technology [4][24] - Consumer spending is expected to increase, driven by new consumption scenarios in sports events and tourism, supported by government policies [4][25]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant recovery in domestic tourism during the 2026 New Year holiday, with 142 million domestic trips, a 5.2% increase compared to the 2024 New Year holiday, and reaching 115% of the 2019 level [6][14] - Total domestic travel expenditure reached 84.789 billion yuan, up 6.3% from the 2024 New Year holiday, recovering to 112% of the 2019 level [6][14] - The average spending per person was 597 yuan, a 1.1% increase from the 2024 New Year holiday, recovering to 97% of the 2019 level [6][14] - There was a notable increase in passenger transport volume, with significant growth in waterway and highway transport [14] - Scenic spots such as Huangshan, Changbai Mountain, and Danxia Mountain saw substantial visitor increases, with ticket bookings for domestic scenic spots increasing over four times year-on-year [16] - Duty-free sales in Hainan experienced rapid growth, with 442,000 items sold, a 52.4% increase, and shopping revenue reaching 712 million yuan, up 128.9% [22] - Cross-border travel demand surged, with 6.615 million people entering and exiting the country, a 28.6% increase [26] - Retail sales in key business districts showed strong consumer vitality, with total sales reaching 4.04 billion yuan, a 16.3% year-on-year increase [34] Summary by Sections Domestic Tourism - Domestic travel during the 2026 New Year holiday reached 142 million trips, a 5.2% increase from 2024, and 115% of the 2019 level [6] - Total expenditure was 84.789 billion yuan, a 6.3% increase from 2024, recovering to 112% of the 2019 level [6] Scenic Spots - Significant visitor growth at scenic spots, with Huangshan, Changbai Mountain, and Danxia Mountain seeing increases of 76%, 66%, and 81% respectively compared to 2024 [16][18] Duty-Free - Hainan's duty-free sales reached 712 million yuan, a 128.9% increase, with 442,000 items sold, reflecting a 52.4% growth [22] Cross-Border Travel - Cross-border travel reached 6.615 million people, a 28.6% increase compared to the previous year [26] Retail - Retail sales in Beijing's key business districts totaled 4.04 billion yuan, with a 16.3% year-on-year increase [34] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the travel chain, including hotels (e.g., Shoulv Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel), scenic spots (e.g., Three Gorges Tourism, Huangshan Tourism), and OTA (e.g., Ctrip Group) [35] - In the retail sector, it recommends focusing on duty-free (e.g., China Duty Free Group, Wangfujing) and retail department stores (e.g., Chongqing Department Store, He Bai Group) [35]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the service consumption sector, particularly in light of the government's efforts to stimulate consumer spending through various holidays and subsidies [1][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in service consumption during the New Year holiday, with a total of 590 million people expected to travel, marking a 19.5% year-on-year increase [2]. - The introduction of a large-scale subsidy program for replacing old appliances is expected to boost consumer spending, with an initial allocation of 62.5 billion yuan (approximately 9.1 billion USD) for 2026 [4]. - Midea's decision to raise air conditioner prices is seen as a strategic move to counteract intense competition in the industry, with price increases of 2% and 4% planned for early January [4]. Summary by Sections Service Consumption Growth - The report notes that during the New Year holiday, railway passenger volume is projected to reach 48.22 million, a 53.1% increase year-on-year, while road travel is expected to account for 540 million people, up 15.5% [2]. - The recovery in travel is anticipated to drive growth in the cultural tourism, hotel, and restaurant sectors, making service consumption a key driver of domestic demand recovery [2]. Domestic and International Tourism - The report indicates a substantial increase in inbound tourism, with ticket bookings for inbound travel during the New Year holiday rising by 110% year-on-year [3]. - Major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou remain popular among international tourists, while smaller cities like Dali and Xishuangbanna have seen a threefold increase in inbound visitors [3]. Government Subsidies and Industry Response - The government has initiated a subsidy program for replacing old appliances, which is expected to support consumer demand during peak seasons like the New Year and Spring Festival [4]. - Midea's price adjustments are viewed as a necessary step to improve the competitive landscape of the air conditioning industry, which has faced rising costs due to increased copper prices [4].

Core Insights - The domestic cultural and tourism market experienced a significant boost during the New Year holiday, with a notable increase in both travel volume and spending [1][8] - The "please 3 days off for 8" holiday arrangement has stimulated travel demand, leading to a rise in long-distance travel and outbound tourism [8][9] Group 1: Travel Volume and Spending - An estimated 590 million people traveled across regions during the New Year holiday, averaging 198 million daily, a 19.5% increase from the previous year [1] - Domestic travel reached 142 million trips, with total spending amounting to 84.789 billion yuan [1] - Railway passenger volume saw a significant increase, with 48.223 million trips over the holiday, a 53.1% year-on-year growth [2] Group 2: Popular Destinations and Activities - Ice and snow tourism led the market, with 40% of the top twenty domestic flight routes being ice tourism-related [2] - Hainan's duty-free shopping surged, with a 156.6% increase in shopping amounts compared to the previous year [4] - Traditional and immersive cultural experiences gained popularity, with non-heritage tourism searches increasing by 85% [5] Group 3: Accommodation Trends - The demand for hotels and traditional accommodations was high, leading to a surge in bookings for nearby homestays, which provided a more personalized experience [6][7] - Bookings for homestays near popular tourist spots like Shanghai Disneyland and Guangzhou's Chimelong Resort increased by 120% and 63% respectively [6] Group 4: Outbound Tourism - Outbound tourism saw a remarkable increase, with hotel bookings covering nearly 3,000 cities globally [9] - Popular themes for outbound travel included island vacations and destinations with visa-free access, with significant growth in bookings for countries like Argentina and Poland [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [5] Core Insights - The consumption market shows strong growth during the New Year holiday, with significant increases in travel and spending among younger demographics [1][2][4] - The cross-year travel and ice-snow tourism are gaining popularity, with notable increases in ticket bookings and hotel reservations [2] - Hainan's duty-free sales doubled in the first two days of the New Year holiday, indicating robust consumer interest [3] - Various cities reported double-digit sales growth during the holiday, reflecting a vibrant consumption environment [4][7] Summary by Sections Travel Trends - High travel enthusiasm was noted during the New Year holiday, with a significant increase in ticket bookings and hotel reservations, particularly among younger travelers [1][2] - The search volume for "cross-year travel" increased by 125% year-on-year, with theme parks and concerts being major attractions [2] Duty-Free Sales - Hainan's duty-free sales reached 30.7 million items, with a 121.5% year-on-year increase in sales amounting to 5.05 billion yuan [3] - The sales in Sanya alone saw a remarkable increase, with sales amounting to 1.63 billion yuan on January 1, marking an 83.2% increase [3] Consumption Growth - Beijing's sales during the holiday reached 4.04 billion yuan, with a 16.3% year-on-year increase [4] - Shanghai reported an average daily consumption of 12.2 billion yuan, with online sales growing by 5.5% year-on-year [4] - Other cities like Qingdao and Nanjing also reported positive sales growth, indicating a broad recovery in consumer spending [4][7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on Hainan and sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, including duty-free, cross-border e-commerce, and certain scenic spots [8] - It highlights the potential of new consumption trends and the importance of adapting to market changes in 2026 [8]

11月25日，亚朵集团(NASDAQ:ATAT)披露的2025年第三季度财务报告显示，报告期内，亚朵整体经营 指标保持稳健，营收同比增长38.4%，平均可出租客房收入(RevPAR)达371.3元，延续逐季改善态势。酒 店主业的稳定表现，与零售端的高增长共同构成了本季财务亮点，其中零售业务的增速仍然让行业关 注。 财报显示，三季度亚朵零售GMV达9.94亿元，同比增长75.5%，线上渠道占比持续超过90%。从增长曲 线来看，零售业务不仅保持了高增速，也在集团营收结构中承担了更重要的角色，成为推动整体增长的 重要动力。 深睡核心品类走强，"爆品效应"持续放大 作为亚朵零售的核心发力点，深睡品类在三季度持续展现市场竞争力。在枕头品类，深睡枕Pro3.0上市 仅25天即实现销售额破亿，较上一代产品破亿时间缩短19天。截至目前，深睡枕系列累计销量已超过 800万只，在电商平台持续位居枕头品类前列。 被子品类同样表现强劲。三季度推出的深睡控温被・四季Pro2.0与冬季Pro2.0，通过升级双层控温系 统，实现对睡眠微环境的动态调节，满足不同季节、不同体质用户的睡眠需求。截至目前，深睡控温被 系列累计销量已突破200万条 ...

Core Insights - The hotel RWA (Real World Assets) model represents an innovative approach that combines blockchain technology with the digital economy, allowing hotel assets to be tokenized and traded as security tokens, thus facilitating digitalization, liquidity, and global asset allocation [1][3]. Group 1: Core Logic of Hotel RWA Model - Traditional hotels are capital-intensive, with core assets including property rights, facilities, brand value, and stable cash flows from various revenue streams [3]. - The RWA model enables the tokenization of these assets, allowing investors to indirectly hold shares in hotel assets through the purchase of standardized digital tokens, which entitle them to profit-sharing and potential capital gains [3][5]. Group 2: New Opportunities for Traditional Hotel Transformation - The RWA model addresses several pain points in the traditional hotel industry, such as high capital investment, limited financing channels, poor asset liquidity, and weak digital capabilities [5]. - It facilitates a shift towards asset-light operations by allowing hotels to tokenize part of their assets, thereby releasing liquidity and reducing capital requirements [6]. - The model promotes digital upgrades through blockchain's smart contract capabilities, enhancing operational efficiency and cost reduction [6]. - Token trading on blockchain networks allows hotels to reach a global customer base, attracting small investors and high-net-worth individuals [6]. Group 3: New Entrepreneurial Opportunities - The implementation of the hotel RWA model creates new business avenues for entrepreneurs, including RWA technology service providers that offer asset tokenization solutions [8]. - Vertical platforms focusing on hotel asset tokenization and trading can emerge, providing more flexibility than traditional real estate investment trusts (REITs) [10]. - Innovative product offerings such as fractional ownership and time-sharing rights can be developed, allowing tourists to invest in hotel revenue streams [10]. - Compliance and consulting services are needed due to the regulatory aspects of RWA, creating demand for professionals with expertise in law, finance, and blockchain [10]. Group 4: New Financing Channels - The RWA model opens up low-cost, efficient, and widely accessible financing channels for traditional hotels [13]. - Tokenization lowers financing thresholds by allowing large assets to be divided into smaller shares, attracting a broader range of investors [13]. - The model shortens financing cycles through automated processes, significantly reducing time costs compared to traditional methods [13]. - Global fundraising is facilitated by the open nature of blockchain networks, enabling hotels to attract investors from around the world [13]. - The dynamic valuation and liquidity of tokens allow real-time reflection of hotel asset values, addressing traditional real estate valuation and liquidity challenges [13]. Conclusion - The hotel RWA model represents a dual innovation of asset financialization and digitalization, revitalizing traditional hotel operations and enhancing financing flexibility [18]. - It serves as a critical lever for traditional hotels transitioning from heavy asset operations to a model that combines light assets with capital operations [18]. - For entrepreneurs, it presents a new avenue for integrating digital economy with traditional industries [18]. - For investors, it offers a new tool for participating in the growth of the hotel industry [18].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The travel industry is expected to continue outperforming expectations, with a positive outlook on the travel chain including OTA (Ctrip, Tongcheng), hotels (Atour, Huazhu, Jinjiang, Shoulv), duty-free (China Duty Free), and scenic spots (Emei Mountain, Three Gorges Tourism, Changbai Mountain) [4]. - The competitive landscape has significantly improved, particularly for companies like Huatu Mountain Ding, Caibai Co., and Laopu Gold [4]. - Notable dividend stocks include Sumida, Action Education, and Chongqing Department Store [4]. - The AI+ sector shows promise with companies like Konnate Optical, Fenbi, Tianli International Holdings, Kevin Education, and Doushen Education [4]. - Oversold stocks identified include China Oriental Education, Guoquan, Gaoxin Retail, and Junting Hotel [4]. Industry Updates - In the social service industry, Sanya's duty-free sales reached 163 million yuan on January 1, 2026, marking an 83.2% year-on-year increase, indicating a strong start for duty-free sales in 2026 [4]. - Ctrip's New Year travel report indicates that domestic scenic spot ticket bookings have increased over fourfold year-on-year, with significant growth in inbound travel bookings, sparking the first consumption boom of 2026 [4]. - Tongcheng Travel's report highlights a surge in travel demand during the New Year holiday, driven by a three-day holiday and the "request 3 days off for 8 days" trend, leading to increased bookings for flights, hotels, and homestays [4]. - Retail sector updates include: - Pang Donglai Group's sales in 2025 reached 23.531 billion yuan, a 39% increase from 16.9 billion yuan in 2024 [4]. - Hema's overall revenue growth exceeded 40% in 2025, with its core formats serving over 100 million consumers [4]. - Sam's Club in China surpassed 140 billion yuan in sales in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 40% [4]. Company Announcements - Kid King announced a profit forecast for 2025, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 275 million to 330 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 51.72% to 82.06% [4]. - Qingmu Technology's chairman reduced his stake by 464,100 shares, accounting for 0.50% of the company's total share capital, with a reduction price of 59.68 yuan [4].