1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - For the corn market, the USDA report is slightly bearish, but the recent strength of US soybeans and wheat has boosted the price of US corn. In the domestic market, the purchase price in the Northeast region has increased, but the upward momentum is insufficient. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the price increase has slowed down. The corn futures price has slightly declined recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - For the starch market, the supply pressure has increased with the increase in new - season corn supply and industry operating rate. However, the current supply - demand structure is good, and the downstream demand is acceptable. The starch inventory has decreased. The starch price has declined in tandem with the corn market recently, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2168 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan/ton; corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2473 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holdings of corn starch is - 116,653 hands, and that of corn is - 43,793 hands. The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn are 69,337 hands, and those of corn starch are 12,453 hands. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 343 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Outer - disk Market - The futures closing price of CBOT corn (active contract) is 429.75 cents per bushel, down 5.75 cents per bushel. The total position of CBOT corn is 1,550,059 contracts, an increase of 6,994 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is - 81,307 contracts, a decrease of 30,121 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2,278.82 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory quotes of corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2,560 yuan/ton, 2,800 yuan/ton, and 2,730 yuan/ton respectively, with an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The import CIF price of corn is 2,034.86 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.17 yuan/ton. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton; the basis of the corn main contract is 110.82 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 427.11 million hectares, 131 million hectares, 53 million hectares, 295 million hectares, and 32 million hectares respectively. The predicted yields are 36.44 million tons, 22.6 million tons, 7.5 million tons, 44.3 million tons, and no data respectively. The corn inventories in southern ports, northern ports, and deep - processing enterprises are 86.6 million tons, 124 million tons, and 273.5 million tons respectively, with the deep - processing inventory decreasing by 6 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 12,780 tons, a decrease of 2,020 tons. The monthly output of feed is 2,015 million tons, and the sample feed corn inventory days are 25.61 days [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The deep - processing corn consumption is 138.65 million tons. The processing profits of corn starch in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are 27 yuan/ton, 110 yuan/ton, and 28 yuan/ton respectively. The operating rates of alcohol enterprises and starch enterprises are 67.29% and 60.89% respectively, with the starch enterprise operating rate decreasing by 2.59 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities of corn are 8.2% and 7.69% respectively, with the 60 - day historical volatility decreasing by 0.03 percentage points. The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options of corn are both 7.99%, with an increase of 0.07 percentage points [2]. 3.8 Industry News - Brazil's corn export volume in November 2025 is expected to reach 6.36 million tons, higher than the previous estimate and last year's level. The estimated sown area of US corn in 2026 is 95 million acres, a decrease of 3.7 million acres or 3.8% compared to 2025. The US corn harvest is almost over, and the short - term supply pressure is high [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific variety, it gives the following outlooks: - Oils and fats: Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, while rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate [9]. - Protein meal: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and CBOT soybeans are expected to fluctuate, with an expected upward - trending range - bound movement for soybean and rapeseed meal [10]. - Corn and starch: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [12]. - Hogs: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend [15]. - Natural rubber: Expected to fluctuate [16]. - Synthetic rubber: Expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to short at high prices [20]. - Cotton: Short - term, there is a risk of correction but limited space; long - term, it is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [21]. - Sugar: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend in the medium - to - long term [22]. - Pulp: Expected to fluctuate [24]. - Offset paper: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend following pulp [24]. - Logs: Expected to fluctuate at a low level [28]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, international trade, weather, and policies to provide short - term and medium - to - long - term outlooks for each product [9][10][12]. 3. Summary by Variety Oils and Fats - **Logic**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans declined due to technical resistance, while CBOT soybean oil rose. The domestic oil market showed a differentiated trend, with palm oil and soybean oil being stronger. The market is waiting for US economic data, and there are uncertainties in the Fed's monetary policy and Russian oil supply. The US soybean harvest is nearing completion, and the planting progress in Brazil and Argentina is normal. The expected arrival volume of imported soybeans in China is relatively high, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased in November, while exports decreased. The consumption of palm oil for biodiesel in Indonesia increased, and its inventory remained low. Indian vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. The supply of domestic rapeseed is currently tight, but it is expected to increase later [2][9]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, while rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate [9]. Protein Meal - **Logic**: The USDA's supply - demand report lowered the export forecast for US soybeans. The premium of US soybeans over South American soybeans is high, but Chinese purchases have returned. The crushing volume of US soybeans in October reached a new high. South American soybean sowing is progressing smoothly. In China, the import profit of soybeans has recovered, and there are expectations of soybean auctions. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills is at a high level in recent years, and the sales and pick - up volume of soybean meal have increased. The soybean inventory of oil mills is high, and the soybean meal inventory is seasonally decreasing but still high year - on - year [10]. - **Outlook**: CBOT soybeans and Dalian soybean meal are expected to fluctuate. Soybean and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate within a range with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 3000 [10]. Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The domestic corn spot price has a narrow fluctuation range, with a "strong in the south, weak in the north" pattern in ports. On the supply side, cold weather has led to farmers' reluctance to sell, and the selling rhythm has slowed down. In the demand side, the demand for feed grains in the sales area is concentrated in the Northeast, and the transportation capacity is tight. The wheel - storage of the China National Grain and Oil Information Center continues [12][13]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, as the bullish factors have not been fully digested, and the spot price is expected to remain strong [13]. Hogs - **Logic**: The supply of hogs is abundant, and there is sporadic bacon - curing in the south. In the short term, the planned daily slaughter volume of large - scale farms in November has increased slightly, but the slaughter progress in the first ten days is slow. In the medium term, the supply of hogs in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. In the long term, the sow production capacity is showing signs of reduction [14]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend. The near - term contracts face high - capacity realization and post - poned inventory from secondary fattening, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction [15]. Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The market sentiment is currently strong, but there are no new marginal bullish factors from the fundamental perspective. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the raw material price is firm, which supports the market to some extent. The demand has not changed significantly in the past two weeks, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is still okay after the price decline [16][17]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited variables, and the rubber price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a wide range with high elasticity. There is no obvious trend in the short term [17]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR futures showed a volatile trend and rose rapidly before the close, which was affected by overseas device news. The main reason for the support of the futures is the relatively stable trading of the raw material butadiene. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the downstream buying sentiment is cautious. Some downstream enterprises have made low - price replenishments, and the market has received short - term bottom support [20]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals and the raw material side are under great pressure. It is recommended to short at high prices before there are obvious supply - demand contradictions in butadiene [20]. Cotton - **Logic**: In October, the Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded due to the downward adjustment of production expectations and the firm purchase price of Xinjiang cotton seeds. In November, the driving force for the rebound weakened, and the supply pressure increased as the production expectation was raised again and the listing peak season arrived. The downstream demand also weakened seasonally [21]. - **Outlook**: Short - term, there is a risk of correction but limited space; long - term, it is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. It is advisable to buy at low prices [21]. Sugar - **Logic**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures fell again this week. In the medium - to - long term, both domestic and international sugar prices have downward drivers. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. The new sugar pressing in the Northern Hemisphere has started, and the supply pressure will gradually increase [22]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to short at high prices, and the short - term price range is expected to be between 5350 - 5550 yuan/ton [22]. Pulp - **Logic**: The pulp futures continued to decline, mainly because the long - side funds left after the price reached above 5500. There is an obvious position - shifting behavior this week, which has accelerated the exit of funds from the 01 contract. The supply - demand relationship has no serious contradictions, and both supply and demand are high [24]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate. The futures market is dominated by funds, and the pulp futures are expected to fluctuate widely [24]. Offset Paper - **Logic**: The tender for offset paper has limited support. The offset paper futures have followed the pulp to weaken, but the overall fundamentals are still at the bottom in November. In the short term, factors such as paper mills' price - holding intention, downstream printing factories' rigid demand, and the limited driving force of tender prices affect the price. In December, the "volume - boosting price - cutting" by dealers may drag down the market, and in the first quarter of 2026, the market is expected to enter a sideways - consolidation phase [24]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend following pulp [24]. Logs - **Logic**: The log futures rebounded slightly in the first half of the week and then weakened again. The supply pressure is expected to ease seasonally in the first quarter of next year, but there is still long - term supply pressure. The demand is expected to be weak and stable in 2026, with a seasonal decline in the first quarter. The inventory is expected to decline slowly in the short term and then increase seasonally [27]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level [28]. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of CITICS Futures showed different degrees of increase on November 19, 2025. The agricultural product index increased by 0.07% on that day, decreased by 1.18% in the past five days, increased by 0.52% in the past month, and decreased by 2.70% since the beginning of the year [186][187].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides investment analysis and strategies for various agricultural products including soybean oil, rapeseed oil, palm oil, soybeans, corn, and livestock products such as pigs and eggs [3][4][5]. - It analyzes the market trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and provides corresponding trading strategies and support/resistance levels for each product [3][4][5]. Group 2: Product - Specific Analysis Soybean Oil - On Wednesday, the main 01 contract of soybean oil continued to rise, closing at 8356 (daily change of 36 or 0.43%). International diesel price increase and strong US soybean crushing consumption drove up domestic oil prices. Although the domestic soybean oil inventory is high, it has entered a decreasing stage, with obvious support below. Suggest holding long positions in the main contract, continuing to hold previously sold out - of - the - money put options, and considering long - oil short - meal arbitrage. Support is at 8000 - 8030 yuan/ton, and resistance is at 8450 - 8500 yuan/ton [3]. Rapeseed Oil - On Wednesday, rapeseed oil declined. The main OI2601 contract closed at 9813 yuan/ton, down 0.91% month - on - month. The fundamentals have no significant change. The inventory is high compared to the same period, but the marginal destocking trend continues. With Australian seeds arriving soon, supply is expected to ease, and the rapeseed sector has given back some premium. Considering reducing or taking profit on previous long positions, and maintaining a long - on - dips strategy before the China - Canada relationship improves. Support for the OI2601 contract is at 9300 - 9350, and resistance is at 10050 - 10100 [3]. Palm Oil - On Wednesday, palm oil trended strongly upward, with the main 01 contract closing at 8852, up 1.89% month - on - month. International energy supply tightened due to sanctions on Russia and attacks on Russian oil facilities, boosting palm oil's bio - diesel attribute. However, domestic demand is weak and inventory may accumulate. As Malaysian palm oil enters the production - reduction season, supply pressure may ease. It is recommended to wait and see or go short - term long on dips. Support is at 8530 - 8550, and resistance is at 8950 - 9000 [4]. Soybeans - **Soybean 1**: On Wednesday, the main 01 contract of soybean 1 adjusted weakly, closing at 4145 (daily change of - 4 or - 0.10%). The market logic is unchanged. On November 18, 35,692 tons of state - reserve soybeans were auctioned at the base price. The new - season soybean market in the Northeast is stable, with high - quality soybeans having firm prices. Farmers' selling willingness is okay, and traders' purchases are cautious. The price may adjust weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see. Support is at 4000 - 4020 yuan/ton, and resistance is at 4250 - 4280 yuan/ton [7]. - **Soybean 2**: On Wednesday, the prices of DCE soybean 2 and soybean meal continued to be weak. Media reports that China may have purchased US soybeans worried the market about the release of reserve soybeans. With sufficient domestic soybean supply for oil extraction, the prices of soybean 2 and soybean meal are expected to bottom weakly in the short - term. It is recommended to exit long positions and hold long - oil short - meal arbitrage. Support for the main soybean 2 contract is at 3680 - 3700 yuan/ton, and resistance is at 3850 - 3900 yuan/ton [5]. Corn and Corn Starch - On Wednesday, the prices of corn and corn starch fluctuated. For US corn, the inventory accumulation expectation in the 2025/26 season remains unchanged, with pressure from concentrated listing. Although there are some weather disturbances in Argentina, the overall pressure persists. For domestic corn, concerns about grain quality in North China increased the purchase enthusiasm for Northeast grain, and the decrease in imported grains also boosted the purchase in the southern sales areas. However, the subsequent concentrated supply pressure still exists, restricting the rebound height of futures prices. It is recommended to go short in the short - term. Support for the corn 01 contract is at 2050 - 2070, and resistance is at 2200 - 2220. For the corn starch 01 contract, support is at 2350 - 2360, and resistance is at 2520 - 2540 [6]. Livestock Products - **Pigs**: On Wednesday, the futures price of pigs fluctuated weakly at a low level. The 2601 contract followed the spot price weakly, while the far - month contracts were relatively resistant to decline. The spot price of pigs first rose and then fell this week. Farmers' slaughter decreased at the beginning of the month, and the slaughter weight increased slightly. The expectation of falling feed costs made the far - month futures prices pessimistic. The national average spot price of pigs is about 11.54 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from last week. It is recommended to wait for capacity reduction to be confirmed and then go long on the 2607 contract at low prices. Cautious investors can wait and see. The reference range for the 2601 contract is 11,500 - 12,600 points [7]. - **Eggs**: On Wednesday, the egg futures price opened low and closed high, fluctuating weakly. The near - month futures prices dropped significantly this week. The overall consumption is gradually entering the peak season. After the egg price fell below the breeding cost, the laying - hen inventory capacity is gradually being reduced, and the new - laying hens at the end of the year are expected to decrease month - on - month. It is recommended that cautious investors wait and see, and aggressive investors can go long on the 2601 contract at prices below the farmers' cost. The reference range for the 01 contract is 3000 - 3250 points [8]. Group 3: Strategy Recommendations Market Judgment Strategies - For different products, different market judgment strategies are given, such as holding long positions, short - term trading, or waiting and seeing based on the supply - demand situation and market trends [3][4][5]. - For example, for soybean oil, it is recommended to hold long positions and long - oil short - meal arbitrage; for rapeseed oil, it is recommended to reduce long positions or take profit and then go long on dips [3]. Arbitrage Strategies - Cross - period and cross - product arbitrage strategies are provided. For cross - period arbitrage, most contracts are recommended to wait and see, while for some contracts like corn 5 - 1, it is recommended to go long at low prices [12]. - For cross - product arbitrage, strategies such as long - oil short - meal arbitrage are recommended, and different strategies are given according to the price differences between different products [12]. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides data on spot prices, price changes, and basis for various products, which can be used for basis and spot - futures trading strategies [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][6][9] Core Views - **Cotton**: Short - term cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may回调 after cost solidification. In the long - term, considering low initial inventory and resilient consumption, cotton prices are expected to be positive after seasonal pressure [2] - **Sugar**: In the short - term, the decline of raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar prices is limited. In the long - term, raw sugar may remain in a low - level shock, and Zhengzhou sugar may have a pessimistic outlook next year [4][6] - **Pulp**: The fundamental improvement of pulp is insufficient, and the continuous rebound space of pulp prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [9] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,485 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (+0.67%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,557 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,779 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Pakistan: As of November 15, 2025/26, the cumulative listing of new - season seed cotton in terms of lint was about 753,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% [1] Market Analysis - International: USDA's November report increased US cotton production, and global cotton supply and demand data were adjusted negatively. The short - term external market is under pressure [1] - Domestic: After the National Day holiday, the expected decline in new cotton production and the stable increase in seed cotton purchase prices supported the previous rebound. However, new cotton is expected to increase, and downstream demand is weak [1] Strategy - Short - term: Cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may回调. Long - term: Cotton prices are expected to be positive after seasonal pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,381 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-0.48%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - India: The central government approved the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season and will consider raising the minimum selling price [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Global sugar production is expected to increase, suppressing the market. In the short - term, the decline space is limited; in the long - term, the rebound is restricted [4] - Zhengzhou sugar: New - season domestic sugar production is expected to increase, but the price is near the cost line, and the decline space is limited [4] Strategy - Short - term: Focus on the support around 5,400 yuan/ton, and treat Zhengzhou sugar with a shock mentality before the Spring Festival. Long - term: The domestic supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price may reach a new low next year [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5,396 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.22%) from the previous day [7] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,125 yuan/ton, unchanged [7] - Market: The import pulp spot market price was basically stable, and the trading volume was limited [7] Market Analysis - Supply: European pulp port inventory decreased in September but remained high. Domestic port inventory decline was slower than expected [8] - Demand: Global pulp mill inventory pressure is increasing, and domestic demand is weak, which suppresses pulp prices [8] Strategy - The continuous rebound space of pulp prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [9]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The report anticipates a 4% expansion in the US soybean planting area in 2026, while the latest forecast for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is 178.76 million tons, a reduction of over 2 million tons from the September prediction due to irregular rainfall in some regions [2]. - Night trading of protein meal showed a weak trend. The USDA供需 report lowered the US soybean yield forecast for 2025/26, resulting in a decrease in production and ending stocks. However, as the market's expectation for the report's adjustment strength was high, the actual data was less favorable. Recently, the US soybean crushing demand has been strong, but the US soybean futures price has corrected due to significant increases. The domestic soybean meal market remains loose with high inventory, and it is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will adjust following the US soybean in the short term [2]. - Night trading of oils and fats showed a weak and volatile trend. The MPOB report indicated an increase in Malaysian palm oil production and exports, leading to continued inventory accumulation to 2.46 million tons. After the report was released, the market showed a situation of "bad news is out." Regarding soybean oil, market rumors suggest that the EPA is preparing to submit the final RVO plan to the White House, boosting the demand expectation for soybean oil in biodiesel. It is expected that the futures prices of related oils and fats will strengthen in the short term. However, due to the upcoming arrival of Australian rapeseeds and frequent state reserve sales, the supply of rapeseed raw materials has increased, putting pressure on rapeseed oil prices [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 8,356, 8,852, 9,813, 3,022, 2,419, and 8,844 respectively, with price changes of 36, 144, -61, -19, -12, and 26, and percentage changes of 0.43%, 1.65%, -3.15%, -0.62%, -0.49%, and 0.29% [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, Y - P09, OI - Y09, OI - P09 are -290, -236, -451, -920, 1,353, and 433 respectively, compared with previous values of -288, -264, -460, -952, 1,484, and 532. The current values of M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, M/RM09, Y/M09, Y - M09 are -26, 80, 491, 1.20, 2.73, and 5,038 respectively, compared with previous values of -53, 88, 467, 1.19, 2.75, and 5,026 [1]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4,176 ringgit/ton, 1,135 cents/bushel, 51 cents/pound, and 321 dollars/ton respectively, with price changes of 241, -15, -1, and -6, and percentage changes of 6.12%, -1.33%, -1.30%, and -1.72% [1]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8,640 and 8,670 respectively, with a percentage change of 0.70%; the spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 8,810 and 8,740 respectively, with a percentage change of 1.38% and 1.39%; the spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 9,780 and 9,860 respectively, with a percentage change of -0.31% and -0.30%. The spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal are 2,990, with a percentage change of -0.99% and -1.32%; the spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal are 2,400 and 2,490 respectively, with a percentage change of -1.64% and -1.58%; the spot prices of Linyi and Anyang peanuts are 7,450 and 7,400 respectively, with a percentage change of -1.32% and 0.00% [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil is 284 and 314; the spot basis of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil is -42 and -112; the spot basis of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil is -33 and 47; the spot basis of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal is -32; the spot basis of Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal is -19 and 71; the spot basis of Linyi and Anyang peanuts is -344 and -394. The current spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is -20; the spot spread between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil is 1,500; the spot spread between Dongguan soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 510 [1]. Import Profit and Crush Margin - The current import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is -411, compared with a previous value of -469. The current import profit of near - month US Gulf soybeans is -337, compared with a previous value of -339. The current import profit of near - month Brazilian soybeans is -32, compared with a previous value of -267. The current import profit of near - month US West soybeans is -253, compared with a previous value of -260. The current import profit of near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil is 491, compared with a previous value of 554 [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 24,627, 730, 4,161, 40,890, 2,000, and 0 respectively, compared with previous values of 24,731, 730, 5,253, 41,073, 2,745, and 0 [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures, all of which are "oscillating weakly" with a medium - term "oscillating" view [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5]. - **Core Logic**: The market has digested the positive news in advance, and the US soybean export data is weak, especially the sales to China far below expectations. The cost support for the domestic soybean meal market exists but lacks continuous driving force. The domestic supply is loose, with high port soybean inventories, increased oil mill operating rates leading to high soybean meal inventories. The arrival of previously purchased Argentine soybean meal has further expanded the supply and increased supply pressure concerns, causing the futures price to weaken [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [7]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term trends depend on external markets like soybean oil and the bio - diesel policy expectations of major producing countries. The current situation of loose supply and weak demand in the palm oil market is the main pressure. The short - term futures price will continue to oscillate, and it is necessary to pay attention to Malaysian production and export data, the final implementation of the US bio - diesel policy, and changes in global vegetable oil trade flows [7]. Other Related Information - **Price Calculation Method**: For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price, and the rise - fall range is calculated accordingly [2]. - **Strength and Weakness Definition**: A decline of more than 1% is considered weak; a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillating weakly; a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillating strongly; a rise of more than 1% is strong. Oscillating strongly/weakly only applies to intraday views [3]. - **Time - Cycle Definition**: Short - term is within one week, and medium - term is from two weeks to one month, with the previous day's night - trading closing price as the benchmark [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views Pig Industry - Recently, the sentiment of small - scale farmers holding back sales has increased, and the spot price shows signs of stabilizing. With colder weather and the start of curing in the southwest, the demand expectation has improved, providing short - term price support. However, the market is not optimistic about the medium - term pig price. After the price recovers, the enthusiasm for slaughter increases, which is unfavorable for the near - month futures. There are sporadic outbreaks in the Northeast, and the spread of the epidemic needs continuous tracking. The 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can continue to be held [2]. Grains Industry - The NOPA's October crushing data exceeded market expectations, supporting US soybeans. But the export demand is weak, and China's 13% tariff on US soybeans is still unfavorable for US soybean exports. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the high - level operation of crushers continues the loose pattern of soybean meal. The current futures price has limited downward space, but it is difficult to strengthen only based on cost and crushing profit. Continue to pay attention to the state - reserve soybean trends, and soybean meal is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [5]. Corn Industry - The supply in the Northeast is sufficient, but the enthusiasm for selling grain is average, and the price is stable. In North China, the number of trucks arriving at enterprises is acceptable, and enterprises purchase as needed, with prices also stable. It is the stage of new - season corn supply, and about 20% of the grain has been sold. There is still selling pressure due to the bumper harvest. On the demand side, the deep - processing profit is relatively good, and the enthusiasm for replenishing inventory is high. The feed industry has increased the inventory - replenishing enthusiasm of low - inventory enterprises, but the increase is limited, and purchases are still cautious. In the short term, corn trading is relatively stable, and the futures price will fluctuate narrowly. Pay attention to the grain - selling rhythm and traders' sentiment [7]. Oil Industry - For palm oil, due to the decline in production, improvement in exports, and the boost from the rise of peripheral vegetable oils, Malaysian palm oil may reach 4300 ringgit again. Affected by the continued strengthening of Malaysian palm oil, domestic palm oil futures may reach the 8900 - 9000 yuan range. For soybean oil, the US EPA has proposed to set the biodiesel quota for 2026 at 71.2 billion RIN, which is equivalent to about 56.1 billion gallons, higher than the industry's previous proposal. Policies on biodiesel in Canada and Indonesia have boosted the vegetable oil market. However, the NOPA data shows that the US soybean oil inventory at the end of October increased and exceeded market expectations. The CBOT soybean is stagnant, affecting the cost side of CBOT soybean oil. In China, the supply of soybean oil is sufficient, and the demand is limited, but the domestic fundamentals have been digested by the market. If the CBOT soybean oil rises after the shock, the January contract of domestic soybean oil futures may rise to around 8500 yuan [9]. Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures closed lower due to sufficient sugar supply. It is expected that the global sugar supply will remain in surplus in the 2025/26 season. Brazil's end - season production is strong, and the harvest in India and Thailand in the Northern Hemisphere has started well, strengthening the expectation of sufficient supply during Brazil's off - season. The supply is loose, and the raw sugar price will be weak. The old - sugar market has basically cleared inventory, new sugar pressure is increasing in Guangxi, and China's sugar imports in October increased by 39% year - on - year, slightly exceeding expectations. The overall sugar price is expected to remain weak [12]. Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures closed lower as traders awaited the US weekly export sales report. Domestically, the new cotton is concentrated on the market in the short term, and the production is high, bringing short - term supply pressure. However, the downstream textile enterprises' finished - product inventory pressure is not large, which supports the cotton price. In the short term, the cotton price may be under pressure and run weakly within a range [13]. Egg Industry - The number of newly - laying hens is at a low level, but the number of old hens for slaughter has not increased significantly. The inventory of laying hens remains high, and the supply pressure persists. With favorable storage conditions, there is inventory backlog at all levels, and the loose supply pattern is difficult to change in the short term. The demand is weak, and trading at all levels is cautious. After the continuous decline of egg prices, the sentiment of holding back sales is strong in low - price areas, and the sales in high - price areas are slow. The current egg price has reached the bottom of the stage, and the space for further sharp decline may be limited. The short positions in the 2512 contract can gradually stop losses at the previous low [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Industry Futures Indicators - The basis of the main contract increased by 45.45%, the price of "Pig 2605" decreased by 0.37% to 11995 yuan/ton, the price of "Pig 2601" increased by 0.22% to 11560 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 13.86% to - 435, the main - contract position decreased by 2.87% to 138334, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 90 [2]. Spot Prices - The spot prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, Liaoning, Guangdong, Hunan, and Hebei changed to 11800, 11800, 11350, 11550, 12210, 11800, and 11800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Spot Indicators - The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 1.84% to 202202, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.97% to 18.42 yuan/kg, the weekly piglet price increased by 1.47% to 17.25 yuan/kg, the weekly sow price remained unchanged at 32.47 yuan/kg, the weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.14% to 128.48 kg, the weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 28.70% to - 115 yuan/head, the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 17.15% to - 206 yuan/head, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased by 0.07% to 40350000 heads [2]. Grains Industry Soybean Meal - The current price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.33% to 3050 yuan/ton, the futures price of "M2601" decreased by 0.62% to 3022 yuan/ton, the basis of "M2601" increased by 47.37% to 28, the spot basis quote remained unchanged at "m2601 - 50", the crushing profit of Brazilian February shipments increased by 127.7% to 13, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.4% to 40890 [5]. Rapeseed Meal - The current price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.64% to 2400 yuan/ton, the futures price of "RM2601" decreased by 0.49% to 2419 yuan/ton, the basis of "RM2601" decreased by 311.11% to - 19, the crushing profit of Canadian January shipments decreased by 8.16% to 630, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 27.14% to 2000 [5]. Soybeans - The current price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3920 yuan/ton, the futures price of the main soybean - one contract decreased by 0.10% to 4145 yuan/ton, the basis of the main soybean - one contract increased by 1.75% to - 225, the current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3950 yuan/ton, the futures price of the main soybean - two contract decreased by 0.19% to 3748 yuan/ton, the basis of the main soybean - two contract increased by 3.59% to 202, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 12832 [5]. Spreads - The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal decreased by 5.26% to 198, the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 5.88% to 32, the spot oil - meal ratio increased by 0.91% to 2.84, the main - contract oil - meal ratio increased by 1.06% to 2.77, the spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased by 4.84% to 650, and the 2601 soybean - rapeseed meal spread decreased by 1.15% to 603 [5]. Corn Industry Corn - The price of "Corn 2601" increased by 0.32% to 2175 yuan/ton, the Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port decreased by 0.45% to 2220 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 27.42% to 45, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 4.11% to - 70, the bulk grain price at Shekou remained unchanged at 2360 yuan/ton, the north - south trade profit increased by 25.64% to 40, the CIF price increased by 0.04% to 2033 yuan/ton, the import profit decreased by 0.23% to 327, the number of early - morning remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises decreased by 30.03% to 508, the position increased by 1.17% to 1903247, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 69337 [7]. Corn Starch - The price of "Corn Starch 2601" increased by 0.53% to 2480 yuan/ton, the spot price in Changchun increased by 1.99% to 2560 yuan/ton, the spot price in Weifang increased by 1.82% to 2800 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 86.05% to 80, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 8.05% to - 80, the 01 contract spread between starch and corn increased by 2.01% to 305, the Shandong starch profit remained unchanged at 31, the position decreased by 0.57% to 282790, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 12453 [7]. Oil Industry Soybean Oil - The current price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 0.58% to 8670 yuan/ton, the futures price of "Y2601" increased by 0.43% to 8356 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 4.67% to 314, the spot basis quote decreased by 10 to "01 + 260", and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.42% to 24627 [9]. Palm Oil - The current price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 1.39% to 8740 yuan/ton, the futures price of "P2601" increased by 1.65% to 8708 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 27.27% to - 88, the spot basis quote decreased by 30 to "01 - 50", the January import cost at Guangzhou Port increased by 1.31% to 9256.7 yuan/ton, the January import profit at Guangzhou Port increased by 5.64% to - 405, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 730 [9]. Rapeseed Oil - The current price of first - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 0.97% to 10270 yuan/ton, the futures price of "Ol601" decreased by 0.62% to 9813 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 9.85% to 357, and the spot basis quote remained unchanged at "01 + 350" [9]. Spreads - The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil decreased by 12.28% to 200, the 01 - 05 spread of palm oil decreased by 14.99% to - 114, the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed oil decreased by 9.85% to 363, the spot soybean - palm oil spread remained unchanged at - 70, the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 7.67% to - 730, the spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 9.09% to 1500, and the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 6.24% to 1457 [9]. Sugar Industry Futures Market - The price of "Sugar 2601" decreased by 0.48% to 5381 yuan/ton, the price of "Sugar 2605" decreased by 0.35% to 5338 yuan/ton, the price of the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.34% to 14.66 cents/pound, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 14.00% to 43, the main - contract position increased by 6.83% to 388009, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.13% to 8428, and the effective forecast remained unchanged at 183 [12]. Spot Market - The price in Nanning decreased by 0.54% to 5550 yuan/ton, the price in Kunming decreased by 0.90% to 5500 yuan/ton, the Nanning basis decreased by 4.93% to 212, the Kunming basis decreased by 16.06% to 162, the price of imported Brazilian sugar within the quota decreased by 0.73% to 4060 yuan/ton, the price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota decreased by 0.75% to 5143 yuan/ton, the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and Nanning remained unchanged at - 1490, and the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota and Nanning decreased by 2.26% to - 407 [12]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1116.21 million tons, the cumulative national sugar sales increased by 9.17% to 1048.00 million tons, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi increased by 4.59% to 646.50 million tons, the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi decreased by 41.20% to 26.66 million tons, the cumulative national sugar sales rate decreased by 2.60% to 93.90%, the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi increased by 4.80% to 93.90%, the national industrial sugar inventory decreased by 41.20% to 68.21 million tons, the industrial sugar inventory in Guangxi increased by 62.90% to 44.21 million tons, the industrial sugar inventory in Yunnan increased by 26.60% to 33.65 million tons, and the sugar import increased by 37.50% to 55.00 million tons [12]. Cotton Industry Futures Market - The price of "Cotton 2605" increased by 0.63% to 13490 yuan/ton, the price of "Cotton 2601" increased by 0.67% to 13485 yuan/ton, the price of the ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 0.78% to 63.94 cents/pound, the 5 - 1 spread decreased by 50.00% to 5, the main - contract position decreased by 2.05% to 553421, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 20.52% to 3486, and the effective forecast increased by 23.92% to 1150 [13]. Spot Market - The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton of grade 3128B decreased by 0.01% to 14557 yuan/ton, the CC Index of grade 3128B decreased by 0.07% to 14779 yuan/ton, the FC Index of grade M decreased by 0.47%

美国能源信息署19日发布数据显示，美国上周乙醇产量为3.21亿加仑，比前一周增加500万加仑，但同 比下降2%；美国乙醇库存为9.37亿加仑，增加600万加仑；上周美国日汽油消费量增长1%，达到853万 桶。 （文章来源：新华财经） 美国环保署消息称美国总统特朗普可能将进口RIN（可再生能源识别码）的决定推迟数年，芝加哥期货 交易所农产品期价下跌。 此外，市场预计从9月到12月中旬，美国损失了3.5亿至4亿蒲式耳大豆的中国进口需求，且这些损失的 销售额无法弥补。这将导致2025-2026年度美国大豆出口量低于15亿蒲式耳，甚至可能低至14.5亿蒲式 耳。 新华财经纽约11月19日电（记者徐静）芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）玉米、小麦和大豆期价19日全线下 跌。 当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳4.4150美元，比前一交易日下跌8.00美分，跌 幅为1.78%；小麦2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳5.4975美元，比前一交易日下跌9.25美分，跌幅为 1.65%；大豆2026年1月合约收于每蒲式耳11.3525美元，比前一交易日下跌18.25美分，跌幅为1.58%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Grain Index experienced a decline of 1.68%, closing at 30.4683 points, indicating a bearish trend in the grain market [1] Grain Futures Summary - CBOT corn futures fell by 1.72%, settling at $4.4175 per bushel [1] - CBOT wheat futures decreased by 1.60%, closing at $5.4975 per bushel [1] - CBOT soybean futures dropped by 1.58%, ending at $11.3525 per bushel [1] - Soymeal futures declined by 2.30%, while soybean oil futures fell by 1.98% [1] Livestock Futures Summary - CBOT lean hog futures increased by 1.19% [1] - Live cattle futures decreased by 1.68% [1] - Feeder cattle futures fell by 1.44% [1]

研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 11 月 19 日 【粕类日报】利多体现明显 美豆逐步回落 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/11/19 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 3022 | -19 | 天津 | 3 0 | 2 0 | 1 0 | | 0 5 | | 2824 | - 8 | 东莞 | -40 | -40 | 0 | | 0 9 | | 2937 | -10 | 张家港 | -50 | -50 | 0 | | | | | | 日照 | -20 | -30 | 1 0 | | 0 1 | | 2419 | -12 | 南通 | 2 1 | 1 9 | 2 ...