农产品期货

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CBOT农产品期货主力合约收盘全线上涨,小麦期货涨1.44%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-20 22:11
每经AI快讯,当地时间8月20日,芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)农产品期货主力合约收盘全线上涨,大 豆期货涨0.17%报1035.50美分/蒲式耳,玉米期货涨0.25%报404.25美分/蒲式耳,小麦期货涨1.44%报 528.75美分/蒲式耳。 (文章来源:每日经济新闻) ...
现货价格坚挺,豆粕震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 05:21
Report Industry Investment Ratings - For the粕类market, the strategy is neutral [4] - For the corn market, the strategy is cautiously bearish [6] Core Views - The domestic soybean supply remains abundant, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The result of the anti - dumping investigation on rapeseed in the policy end has a significant impact on the price of meal products. The Sino - US trade policy is still uncertain. The Brazilian premium remains strong, and the cost side is still supported [3] - In the domestic corn market, the supply side shows that the channel inventory in Northeast and North China is relatively low, and traders are more active in selling. The demand side indicates that the start - up of deep - processing enterprises is stable, and the inventory continues to decline. Feed enterprises mainly conduct sporadic replenishment. The price has insufficient upward momentum, and the market focuses on the listing of new grains [5] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data -粕类 - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2509 contract was 3161 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.19%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2604 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.54%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3000 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2980 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2720 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1] - US market: As of the week of August 17, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the flowering rate was 95%, and the pod - setting rate was 82%. As of the week of August 14, the US soybean export inspection volume was 47.4 tons. The 2024/25 US soybean export inspection volume was 4886.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.6%, reaching 95.8% of the annual export target [2] Market News and Important Data - Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2170 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.32%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2509 contract was 2563 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-1.20%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2730 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] - Forecast: ASAP Agri expects Ukraine's 2025 corn production to reach 3090 tons, an increase of 330 tons from the previous forecast. As of the week of August 14, the US wheat export inspection volume was 39.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.6%. The 2025/26 US wheat export inspection volume was 481.2 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [4] Market Analysis -粕类 - The domestic soybean supply is still abundant, and the fundamentals have no major changes. The result of the rapeseed anti - dumping investigation on the policy end has a significant impact on the price of meal products. The Sino - US trade policy is uncertain, and the Brazilian premium remains strong, providing cost support [3] Market Analysis - Corn - On the supply side, the channel inventory in Northeast and North China is relatively low, and traders are more active in selling. On the demand side, the start - up of deep - processing enterprises is stable, and the inventory continues to decline. Feed enterprises mainly conduct sporadic replenishment. The price has insufficient upward momentum, and the market focuses on the listing of new grains [5]
农产品日报:郑棉承压回落,白糖延续震荡-20250820
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 05:19
Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][7][10] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the global supply - demand pattern has shifted from loose to tight, but the market doubts the tight pattern. In China, short - term supply shortage supports cotton prices, but weak downstream demand limits the upside. In the medium - term, new cotton listing will suppress prices [2] - For sugar, the Brazilian sugar market has complex changes in exports. The domestic sugar market faces pressure from imported sugar, but potential delays in the new sugar - making season may lead to a price increase in the fourth quarter [4][6][7] - For pulp, the supply pressure remains in the second half of 2025, and the demand is weak both at home and abroad. The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [9][10] Summary by Product Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 14,100 yuan/ton yesterday, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 15,080 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the national average was 15,243 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton. India will exempt cotton import tariffs from August 19 - September 30 [1] Market Analysis - International: USDA cut global cotton production and ending stocks, but the market doubts the tight pattern, and ICE cotton is in a shock range. Domestic: Zhengzhou cotton rose with the external market. Short - term supply shortage supports prices, but weak downstream demand limits the upside. Medium - term, new cotton listing will bring new pressure [2] Strategy - Neutral. Low inventory and upcoming textile peak season support prices, but policy regulation and long - term industrial factors limit the upside [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,661 yuan/ton yesterday, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.19%) from the previous day. Spot: Sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,980 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,855 yuan/ton. In July 2025, Brazilian sugar exports decreased, while ethanol exports increased [4] Market Analysis - International: Brazilian sugar production and crushing data are mixed, and some institutions are lowering Brazilian sugar production estimates. Domestic: The sales progress of domestic sugar has slowed down, and the pressure of imported sugar is increasing [6] Strategy - Neutral. Pressured by processed sugar supply, Zhengzhou sugar will oscillate. In the medium - term, low inventory and potential delays in the new sugar - making season may lead to a price increase in the fourth quarter [7] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2511 contract closed at 5,178 yuan/ton yesterday, down 74 yuan/ton (-1.41%) from the previous day. Spot: Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,850 yuan/ton; Russian needle pulp was 5,200 yuan/ton. The imported wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some prices following the decline of the futures [8] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, wood pulp imports increased, and domestic production capacity will be put into operation in the second half. Port inventory is high, and supply pressure remains. Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the US, and weak domestic demand due to the off - season. Terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited [9] Strategy - Neutral. The pulp market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [10]
豆粕:隔夜美豆收跌,连粕调整震荡,豆一,豆类氛围偏弱,调整震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 03:10
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overnight, US soybeans closed lower, and Dalian soybean meal adjusted and fluctuated; the soybean market sentiment was weak, with adjustment and fluctuation [1] - On August 19, CBOT soybean futures closed lower mainly due to good soybean yield potential found by inspectors and long - position profit - taking [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - DCE soybean 2511: The daytime closing price was 4046 yuan/ton, the night - time closing price was 4019 yuan/ton, with a decline of 10 yuan/ton (-0.25%) during the day and 33 yuan/ton (-0.81%) at night [1] - DCE soybean meal 2601: The daytime closing price was 3161 yuan/ton, the night - time closing price was 3134 yuan/ton, with an increase of 14 yuan/ton (+0.44%) during the day and a decline of 33 yuan/ton (-1.04%) at night [1] - CBOT soybean 11: The price was 1033.25 cents/bushel, a decline of 7.25 cents/bushel (-0.70%) [1] - CBOT soybean meal 12: The price was 295.7 dollars/short - ton, an increase of 4.1 dollars/short - ton (+1.41%) [1] Spot - Shandong: The spot price of soybean meal (43%) was 3070 - 3090 yuan/ton, with different basis prices for different delivery months [1] - East China: The spot price of soybean meal was 3000 yuan/ton (Taizhou Huifu), with various basis prices for different months [1] - South China: The spot price of soybean meal was 3050 - 3110 yuan/ton, with different basis prices for different delivery months [1] Industrial Data - The trading volume of soybean meal was 31.4 million tons/day in the previous trading day and 9.65 million tons/day two trading days ago; the inventory was 97.4 million tons/week in the previous week and 96.09 million tons/week two weeks ago [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On August 19, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. The ProFarmer organization's inspection found that the number of soybean pods in Ohio and South Dakota was above average on the first day, and traders were waiting for more reports on the second day. The USDA reported that private exporters sold 228,606 tons of US soybeans to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/26 season [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal was 0, and that of soybean was 0 (only referring to the price fluctuation of the main contract in the daytime on the reporting day) [3]
申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250820
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 02:42
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The USDA has adjusted the planting area and yield of new - crop soybeans in the United States, leading to a decrease in the estimated production of new - crop soybeans and a significant tightening of the ending stocks. The prices of soybean meal futures are supported by the cost of imports. For palm oil, the increase in production and exports in Malaysia, along with concerns about Indonesia's production and policy, will cause short - term oscillations in the oil market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Domestic Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties are provided, along with their price changes, price differences, and price - to - price difference ratios. For example, the previous day's closing price of soybean oil futures was 8526, with a price increase of 10 and a price increase rate of 0.12%. The current value of the Y9 - 1 spread was 32, compared to a previous value of 28 [1] - **International Futures**: The previous day's closing prices, price changes, and price increase rates of international futures such as BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, and others are presented. For instance, the previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil was 4473, with a price increase of 135 and a price increase rate of 3.11% [1] Spot Market - **Domestic Spot**: The current spot prices, price increase rates, spot basis, and spot price differences of domestic products like soybean oil, palm oil, and others are given. For example, the current spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8730, with a price increase rate of 0.00%, and the spot basis is 204 [1] - **Import and Profit**: The current and previous values of import profit for varieties such as Malaysian palm oil, U.S. Gulf soybeans, and others are provided. For example, the current import profit of Malaysian palm oil is - 195, compared to a previous value of - 204 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The current and previous values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties are presented. For example, the current value of soybean oil warehouse receipts is 15,310, the same as the previous value [1] Industry Information - **Crop Inspection**: ProFarmer's crop inspection estimates that the corn yield per acre in Ohio in 2025 will be 185.69 bushels, and the average number of soybean pods in Ohio will be 1287.28, showing an increase compared to 2024 [2] - **Protein Meal**: The USDA has adjusted the planting area and yield of new - crop soybeans in the United States, resulting in a decrease in the estimated production of new - crop soybeans from 43.35 billion bushels to 42.92 billion bushels. The export estimate of U.S. soybeans has been further reduced to 17.05 billion bushels, and the ending stocks of U.S. soybean futures in the 25/26 season have decreased to 2.9 billion bushels [2] - **Oils**: According to high - frequency data, the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 15, 2025, increased by 0.88% compared to the same period last month, and the export volume increased by 34.5%. Indonesia's policies and actions have also affected the palm oil market [2]
大越期货豆粕早报-20250820
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 02:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Bean Meal - The short - term trend is likely to be in a moderately strong oscillation pattern. The price of M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3100 and 3160. The support comes from factors such as the uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas, slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, and relatively low inventory in domestic oil mills. However, the high volume of imported soybeans arriving in August and the spot price discount limit the upside potential [8]. 2.2 Soybeans - The short - term trend is affected by multiple factors and is in a neutral state. The price of A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3960 and 4060. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand support the price, while the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppress the price [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Bean meal: In the short - term, it may enter a moderately strong oscillation pattern. The price of M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3100 and 3160. - Soybeans: In the short - term, it is affected by multiple factors and is in a neutral state. The price of A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3960 and 4060 [8][10]. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth and harvest, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China in August remains high, and the inventory of oil mill bean meal is at a relatively high level. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise in rapeseed meal prices, bean meal is in a short - term moderately strong oscillation [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Bean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil mill bean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas. - Bearish factors: High volume of imported soybeans arriving in July, the end of Brazilian soybean harvesting, and the continuous expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans. - Bearish factors: Continuous expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Bean Meal - Spot price in East China is 3000, with a basis of - 161, indicating a discount to futures. - Oil mill bean meal inventory is 100.35 tons, a 3.66% decrease from last week and a 31.74% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. 3.4.2 Soybeans - Spot price is 4300, with a basis of 254, indicating a premium to futures. - Oil mill soybean inventory is 710.56 tons, an 8.38% increase from last week and a 0.59% decrease compared to the same period last year [10]. 3.5 Position Data - For both bean meal and soybeans, the long positions of the main players are increasing, and capital is flowing in [8][10].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:农产品-20250820
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 01:32
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil: Follow macro trends and undergo a corrective adjustment [2][4] - Soybean oil: Lack of driving force from US soybeans, undergo a corrective adjustment [2][4] - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans closed lower, Dalian soybean meal adjusted and fluctuated [2][10] - Soybean: Weak atmosphere in the soybean sector, adjusted and fluctuated [2][10] - Corn: Run weakly [2][15] - Sugar: The import volume in July increased significantly year-on-year [2][18] - Cotton: Pay attention to the listing situation of new cotton [2][23] - Eggs: Weak long - term expectations [2][29] - Live pigs: Wait for the spot market verification at the end of the month [2][31] - Peanuts: Pay attention to the situation of new peanuts [2][37] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil futures had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.57% and a night - session decrease of 1.06%. Soybean oil futures had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.07% and a night - session decrease of 1.99%. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects palm oil prices to stay above 4300 ringgit [4][5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is - 1 [9]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean meal 2601 had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.44% and a night - session decrease of 1.04%. DCE soybean 2511 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 0.25% and a night - session decrease of 0.81%. CBOT soybeans 11 closed down 0.70% [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 19, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to good soybean yield potential and long - position profit - taking. Private exporters reported selling 228,606 tons of US soybeans to Mexico for 2025/26 delivery [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean is 0 [12]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2509 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 1.10% and a night - session decrease of 0.27%. C2511 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 0.60% and a night - session decrease of 0.23%. The northern corn collection port price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong Shekou price decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of corn is 0 [16]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 16.3 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5990 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5661 yuan/ton. China imported 740,000 tons of sugar in July, an increase of 320,000 tons [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of sugar is 0 [21]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 0.18% and a flat night - session. ICE cotton 12 closed down 0.46%. Cotton spot trading was average, and the cotton yarn market showed a slight recovery [23][24]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of cotton is 0 [27]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2509 closed down 4.27%, and Egg 2601 closed down 1.64%. The 9 - 1 spread was - 485, a decrease from the previous day [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [29]. Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 13,880 yuan/ton, and the futures prices of different contracts increased year - on - year. The trading volume and open interest of most contracts decreased [33]. - **Market Logic**: The planned slaughter volume of group farms increased in August, demand growth was limited, and the market pressure was high. The short - term support level of LH2509 is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [35]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of live pigs is - 1 [34]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: PK510 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 0.02%, and PK511 had a decrease of 0.38%. New peanuts in some areas are gradually being listed, with limited supply [37][38]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [39].
棕油继续领涨,油脂油料偏强运行
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 13:54
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating Strongly [1][5] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [6] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating Weakly [7] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [10] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [14] - **Cotton**: Oscillating Strongly [15] - **Sugar**: Oscillating [17] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [18] - **Logs**: Oscillating Weakly [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - Mid - term, oils and fats are likely to continue strong due to factors like increased overseas biodiesel demand, potential reduction in US soybean yield, and the approaching palm oil减产 season [1][5]. - The protein meal market may shift from a structure of strong domestic and weak overseas, near - term weak and far - term strong. The futures price is expected to strengthen gradually [6]. - Corn prices may face short - term uncertainty due to old crop de - stocking and a downward trend after new crop listing [7][8]. - Hog prices are expected to oscillate, with a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern in the industry [9]. - Natural rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to good macro sentiment and short - term fundamental support [13]. - Synthetic rubber prices may oscillate strongly in the short term as butadiene prices are likely to rise slightly [14]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate strongly within the range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [15][16]. - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the long term and within the 5,600 - 5,900 yuan range in the short term [17]. - Pulp futures are expected to oscillate, with the main 11 - contract running in the 5,100 - 5,500 range [18]. - Log prices are expected to run within the 790 - 840 range, with marginal improvement in fundamentals [20][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: Last Friday, US soybeans and soybean oil rose due to technical buying. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend yesterday, with palm oil strong and soybean oil oscillating weakly [1][5]. - **Macro Environment**: The market has a strong expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Last Friday, the US dollar weakened and crude oil prices fell [1][5]. - **Industrial Factors**: USDA's August report expects a record - high US soybean yield. US soybean exports face uncertainties due to Sino - US trade relations. US biodiesel demand for soybean oil is expected to increase, but this year's demand is down year - on - year. Palm oil is in the production season, with an expected high output in August. Indonesian biodiesel demand for palm oil may be better than expected. China's import of Canadian rapeseed is expected to decline, but imports from other regions may increase [1][5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **International Situation**: US soybean good - quality rate is 68%. Brazilian soybean exports have peaked, and the premium has declined. CFTC's net short position in US soybeans has decreased. US soybeans are expected to oscillate around 1,050 cents [6]. - **Domestic Situation**: The market recognizes near - term inventory pressure and far - term supply gaps. Some oil mills will conduct maintenance or reduce operating rates, and forward - purchase contracts are popular among downstream. The market should watch for Sino - US relations and hog industry impacts on demand [6]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Price Information**: Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price is 2,300 yuan/ton, and the domestic average corn price is 2,375 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is gradually released, and demand is weak due to low profits in the livestock and deep - processing industries. Policy - related imports have a lower transaction rate. There may be short - term price rebounds in some regions, and new crop supply is expected to be abundant [7][8]. 3.4 Hogs - **Price Information**: On August 18, the price of Henan's live hogs (outer ternary) was 13.59 yuan/kg, and the futures closing price was 13,820 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term supply is increasing, and mid - term supply is expected to rise due to high sow capacity. Long - term supply may decrease due to anti - involution policies. Demand shows a stable pork - to - hog price ratio and an expanding premium for fat hogs. The industry has a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [9]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Price Information**: Qingdao Bonded Area's RMB - denominated Thai mixed rubber is 14,420 yuan/ton, and Thailand's raw material prices have declined [10][12]. - **Market Logic**: Rubber prices rose last Friday due to rumors of state reserves release and then adjusted. Seasonal factors and various rumors support price increases. Short - term supply may decrease, and demand is stable [13]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Price Information**: The spot price of butadiene rubber has declined, and butadiene prices have shown a mixed trend [14]. - **Market Logic**: The BR futures followed the overall commodity market's decline. The market is influenced by natural rubber sentiment and butadiene supply shortages. Butadiene prices are expected to rise slightly [14]. 3.7 Cotton - **Price Information**: As of August 18, Zhengzhou Cotton's 09 contract closed at 13,830 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract closed at 14,125 yuan/ton [15]. - **Market Logic**: Positive factors include the extension of the suspension of mutual tariff increases between China and the US, a reduction in the US cotton output forecast, low domestic commercial inventories, and improved downstream demand. However, new - crop production is expected to increase, and there is pressure on the futures at 14,300 yuan/ton [15][16]. 3.8 Sugar - **Price Information**: As of August 18, Zhengzhou Sugar's 09 contract closed at 5,736 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract closed at 5,672 yuan/ton [17]. - **Market Logic**: The market has revised down the forecast of Brazil's sugar production in the new season, which has adjusted the global sugar surplus expectation. The domestic market has limited downside space but faces supply pressure from imports [17]. 3.9 Pulp - **Price Information**: Shandong's coniferous pulp prices have shown a mixed trend [18]. - **Market Logic**: The pulp market has both positive and negative factors. Broad - leaf pulp has short - term rebound momentum, but long - term supply and demand are still a concern. The futures are expected to oscillate within the 5,100 - 5,500 range [18]. 3.10 Logs - **Market Logic**: The market is trading based on the product's fundamentals. Positive factors include increased cost - side valuation and improved port arrival pressure. Negative factors include weak demand, undigested warehouse receipts, and new warehouse receipt registrations. The market is expected to run within the 790 - 840 range [20][21].
天富期货玉米、鸡蛋持续下挫
Tian Fu Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 11:58
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn prices are under pressure due to ample supply, including continuous auctions of imported corn, strong substitution advantage of wheat, and high expectations of a new corn harvest, and the weak trend is expected to continue [1][2] - Egg prices are also declining as egg - laying hen inventory is high, new production is increasing, and cold - storage eggs are continuously hitting the market, and the weak trend is likely to persist [1][4] - Palm oil prices are rising due to strong exports of Malaysian palm oil and concerns about subsequent supply in production areas [5][7] - Soybean oil shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with short - term supply increase and long - term supply shortage expectations [8][10] - Hog prices are rebounding from a low level, with supply being relatively loose and demand showing signs of mild recovery [11] - Cotton prices are in high - level consolidation, with factors such as declining commercial inventory and weak downstream demand [13] - Jujube prices are fluctuating at a high level, with concerns about production and expectations of improved downstream consumption [16] - Sugar prices are fluctuating at a high level, with supply - side pressure from increasing imports and improved domestic market trading [19] - Soybean meal prices are rising, supported by uncertain Sino - US economic and trade relations and expectations of less imported soybeans in the fourth quarter [20][22] - Apple prices are adjusting at a high level, with low inventory and different situations in different production areas [23] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Corn prices are falling continuously because of ample supply, and the weak trend is expected to continue; egg prices are also in a downward trend due to high supply pressure [1] 2. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Corn - The main 2511 contract of corn is falling continuously to new lows because of ample supply, including continuous auctions of imported corn, strong substitution advantage of wheat, and approaching new corn listing. Technically, it is weak, and a light - short position strategy is recommended. The support level is 2150, and the resistance level is 2180 [2] (2) Egg - The main 2510 contract of eggs is falling under supply pressure, with high egg - laying hen inventory, increasing new production, and continuous release of cold - storage eggs. Technically, it is weak, and a light - short position strategy is recommended. The support level is 3050, and the resistance level is 3080 [4] (3) Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil is rising, boosted by strong exports of Malaysian palm oil and concerns about subsequent supply in production areas. Technically, it is strong, and a light - long position strategy is recommended. The support level is 9508, and the resistance level is 9736 [7] (4) Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil is fluctuating at a high level, with short - term supply increase due to concentrated arrival of imported soybeans and long - term supply shortage expectations. Technically, it is in an upward trend, and a long - position holding strategy is recommended. The support level is 8500, and the resistance level is 8580 [8][10] (5) Hog - The main 2511 contract of hogs is rebounding from a low level. Supply is relatively loose, and demand is showing mild recovery. Technically, the main downward trend is still in place, and a short - position reduction strategy is recommended. The support level is 13800, and the resistance level is 14950 [11] (6) Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton is in high - level consolidation, with declining commercial inventory, less imported cotton, and weak downstream demand. Technically, it is recommended to close long positions. The support level is 14050, and the resistance level is 14200 [13] (7) Jujube - The main 2601 contract of jujubes is fluctuating at a high level. There are concerns about production decline, and downstream consumption is expected to improve. Technically, it is strong, and a long - position holding strategy is recommended. The support level is 11435, and the resistance level is 11825 [16] (8) Sugar - The main 2601 contract of sugar is fluctuating at a high level. Domestic market trading is improving, but import volume is increasing, putting pressure on the supply side. Technically, it is strong, and a long - position holding strategy is recommended. The support level is 5647, and the resistance level is 5700 [19] (9) Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal is rising, supported by uncertain Sino - US economic and trade relations and expectations of less imported soybeans in the fourth quarter. Technically, it is strong, and a light - long position strategy is recommended. The support level is 3154, and the resistance level is 3190 [20][22] (10) Apple - The main 2510 contract of apples is adjusting at a high level, with low inventory and different situations in different production areas. Technically, the upward trend remains, and a long - position holding strategy is recommended. The support level is 8108, and the resistance level is 8250 [23]
农产品日报-20250819
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 11:25
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ☆☆☆ [1] - Doupo: ★☆☆ [1] - Douyou: ★☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Caipo: ★☆☆ [1] - Caiyou: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides a daily analysis of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It assesses the supply and demand, price trends, and market factors affecting each product, offering investment suggestions based on short - and long - term outlooks [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybeans - Domestic soybeans had a 44,521 - ton auction, with 27,733 tons sold at an average price of 4,145 yuan/ton. Market supply increased marginally, while demand was weak. The price gap with imported soybeans is shrinking. US crop inspections showed increased pod numbers in some states. Weather, policies, and imported soybeans should be monitored [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - As of August 17, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%. Future weather may challenge new - season crops. China's anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed boosted meal prices. 8 - 10 month soybean arrivals are expected to be around 10 million tons. Supply is sufficient this year, but there are uncertainties in the far - month. The market is cautiously bullish on soybean meal [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US crop inspections showed positive results for soybeans. The FOB price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is negative. The price difference between Malaysian and Indonesian crude palm oil is weakening. Long - term, a buy - on - dips strategy is maintained, but short - term volatility risks should be noted [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed futures had a weak rebound. Chinese companies may import Australian rapeseed, with new crops expected to arrive at the end of the year. The market is expected to rebound in the short - term, and new import trends should be watched [6] Corn - As of August 19, China's CGSCA had 15 imported corn auctions, with a low total成交 rate of 36.38%. The US corn good - to - excellent rate was 71% as of August 17. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - Short - term spot prices are strengthening, but mid - term prices are expected to decline due to high supply. Policy may support prices at a certain level. A sell - on - rallies hedging strategy is recommended [8] Eggs - Egg futures are accelerating downward. Spot prices are weak, and over - capacity is a long - term issue. Mid - term, prices may continue to fall to reduce capacity. Short - term, profit - taking risks should be watched [9]