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芝加哥期货交易所农产品期价预期走低
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-29 13:13
Core Insights - Wheat futures remained flat to down by 2 cents per bushel as traders await the USDA's quarterly grain stocks data to be released on Tuesday [1] - Analysts expect U.S. wheat stocks as of September 1 to be 2.043 billion bushels, up from 1.992 billion bushels year-over-year [1] - Global wheat supply is ample, but Russian export prices have risen for the second consecutive week due to increased demand [1] Wheat Market Summary - CBOT December soft red winter wheat futures fell by 1 cent to $5.1875 per bushel [1] Corn Market Summary - Corn futures declined by 1 to 3 cents per bushel as U.S. corn harvesting progresses, putting pressure on prices [1] - The USDA anticipates record harvest yields for corn [1] - Analysts project September 1 corn stocks to be 1.337 billion bushels, down from 1.763 billion bushels year-over-year [1] - CBOT December corn futures dropped by 2.25 cents to $4.1975 per bushel [1]
国投期货农产品日报-20250929
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 12:48
| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月29日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 显一 | な☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕櫚油 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 菜粕 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆陆续展开收购,目前东北产区毛粮价格集中在1.85元/斤,刚上市的大豆主要以低蛋白为主。我 们上周东北产地调研了解的结果是市场对今年国产大豆产量预期跟去年比较是持平或微增,主要是得益于面积 增长。国产大豆短期表现好于进口大豆,国产和进口大豆价差走强。美豆表现偏弱,目前处于收获李节,面临 季节性 ...
格林大华期货官方微信
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 11:04
时间:2025.09.29 研究员:张晓君 从业资格: F0242716 交易咨询: Z0011864 黑龙江区域玉米产业调研总结 证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 Ø 调研背景: 进入9月下旬,国内玉米主产区新季玉米陆续收获上市,玉米 市场进入新陈交替阶段。当前,主产区新作玉米定产情况、基层售 粮情绪及下游建库节奏等成为近期市场关注焦点;亦是新陈玉米价 格如何对接的关键驱动因素。 在此业内瞩目的重要时间节点,笔者在大商所的带领下,历时 5天,走访了黑龙江区域玉米市场上、中、下游全产业链,包括玉 米种植户/农场、贸易商、深加工企业以及交割库等,总计13家相 关企业。深入了解了东北地区新季玉米整体产量/质量、开秤价、 种植端售粮情绪、下游企业建库意愿以及相关企业运用玉米期货和 衍生品的情况。 Ø 调研线路: 西北线:哈尔滨→绥化→青冈→海伦→克东→北安→五大连池→嫩江→讷河→大庆→哈尔滨 东北线:哈尔滨→佳木斯→宝泉岭→富锦→宝清→虎林→密山→牡丹江→哈尔滨 Ø 调研对象:农户、贸易商、加工企业、大型农场等 Ø 调研目的:新季玉米上市相关情况(面积、单产、产量、 ...
中辉期货品种策略日报-20250929
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 10:02
| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美豆本周优良率环比下降,但收获开启,利多支撑不足。本周豆粕库存环比增加, | | | | 豆粕 | | 国内短期供应充足。前日豆粕整理,短线反弹对待,节前看多追多操作需谨慎。由 | | ★ | 短线下跌 | 于中美贸易关税问题,豆粕持续下行空间预计暂有限。假期关注 9 月底美豆季度库 | | 存数据,美生柴及美豆收获季下中美贸易进展。 | | | | 菜粕 | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织,区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | 调查时间,显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日,但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通,利多程度有 | 短线下跌 | | | ★ | | 限。菜粕走势暂以跟随豆粕趋势为主,关注中加贸易进展。 | | 美生柴政策变数频发,拖累棕榈油调整,考虑美豆油端近期利空因素较多,或抑制 | | | | 棕榈油 | 短线延续调整 | 本月棕榈油表现。此外,市场预计马棕榈油 9 月将继续累库,或抑制双节前表现。 | | ★ | | 短期偏弱震荡行情对待。关注马棕榈油本月出口情况以及美豆油端表现。 | | 豆油 | 短线延续调整 ...
银河期货花生日报-20250929
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 09:43
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 | 第一部分 | | | | | 数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2025/9/29 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | 7842 | 16 | 0.20% | 52 | 205.88% | 437 | 1.63% | | PK510 | 7800 | 12 | 0.15% | 1,733 | -32.46% | 1,628 | -48.72% | | PK601 | 7820 | 48 | 0.61% | 24,514 | 83.69% | 57,942 | 5.55% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 | | 今日报价 | 8800 | 8600 ...
大越期货豆粕早报-20250929
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 03:01
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-09-29 大越期货投资咨询部:王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询资格证号:Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 CONTENTS 目 录 4 基本面数据 1 每日提示 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2601:2900至2960区间震荡 1.基本面:美豆震荡收涨,阿根廷出口创汇达到70亿美元目标后结束,美豆千点关口上方震 荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落,短 期技术性震荡整理,九月进口大豆到港维持偏高位和现货价格贴水压制盘面预期,短期 或回归震荡格局。中性 2.基差:现货2880(华东),基差-57,贴水期货。偏空 3.库存:油厂豆粕库存116.44万吨,上周113.62万吨,环比增加2.48%,去年同期134.68万 吨,同比减少13.54%。偏多 ...
豆粕:震荡,规避国庆长假风险,豆一,新豆上市,市场预期政策支持
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-28 11:03
二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 09 月 28 日 豆粕:震荡,规避国庆长假风险 豆一:新豆上市,市场预期政策支持 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读: 上周(09.22-09.26),美豆期价偏弱运行,主要因为阿根廷免税事件扰动、中美贸易摩擦忧虑(中 方尚未开启美豆采购)。从周 K 线角度,9 月 26 日当周,美豆主力 11 月合约周跌幅 1.17%,美豆粕主力 12 月合约周跌幅 3.27%。 上周(09.22-09.26),国内豆粕期价偏弱,豆一期价偏强。豆粕方面,主要因为阿根廷出口免税政 策扰动、"缺货"担忧缓解。豆一方面,主要因为政策支持预期。从周 K 线角度,9 月 26 日当周,豆粕主 力 m2601 合约周跌幅 2.55%,豆一主力 a2511 合约周涨幅 0.79%。(上述期货价格及涨跌幅数据引自文华 财经) 上周(09.22-09.26),国际大豆市场主要基本面情况:1)美豆净销售周环比下降、符合预期,影响 中性偏空。据 USDA 出口销售报告,9 月 18 日当周,装船方面,2025/26 年美豆出口装船约 51 万吨 ...
农产品周报:新棉陆续开秤,增产预期压制盘面-20250928
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-28 09:08
Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [4] - Sugar: Neutral [8] - Pulp: Neutral [11] 2. Core Views - Cotton: New cotton production increase expectations continue to suppress the market, and with the weak peak season in September and insufficient demand support, cotton prices still have the risk of further decline [4] - Sugar: The fundamental driving force is still downward, but there is cost support after continuous decline, so the short - term downside space may be limited [8] - Pulp: The current pulp fundamentals have insufficient improvement, the entire industry chain lacks positive driving forces, and short - term pulp prices may remain at the bottom and continue to fluctuate at a low level [11] 3. Summary by Industry Cotton - **Market News and Key Data** - Futures: As of Friday's close, the cotton 2601 contract was at 13,405 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan/ton, a 2.30% decline. Spot: Xinjiang cotton spot price was 14,995 yuan/ton, down 203 yuan/ton. The national weighted average spot price was 15,043 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton [1] - Internationally, from September 12 - 18, US 2025/26 upland cotton net signings were 19,527 tons, a 54% decrease from the previous week. Shipments were 31,116 tons, a 14% increase from the previous week. As of September 23, about 49% of the US cotton - growing areas were affected by drought, an 8 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [1] - Domestically, in August 2025, China's cotton cloth exports were 563 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 8.27% and a year - on - year increase of 14.20%. From January - August 2025, exports were 4.2 billion meters, a year - on - year increase of 10.50% [2] - **Market Analysis** - Internationally, the September USDA report increased global cotton production and consumption, and reduced beginning and ending stocks. The US cotton supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but the short - term upside is limited due to slow export sales [3] - Domestically, Xinjiang cottonseed has started to be purchased. The expected panic buying has not occurred. The estimated Xinjiang production is about 7.3 million tons, and the market may face pressure during the peak listing period [3] Sugar - **Market News and Key Data** - Futures: As of Friday's close, the sugar 2601 contract was at 5,478 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase. Spot: Guangxi Nanning's sugar spot price was 5,780 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; Yunnan Kunming's was 5,810 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton [5] - Internationally, it is estimated that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of September was 45.92 million tons, a 6.8% year - on - year increase, and sugar production was 3.6 million tons, a 15% year - on - year increase [5][6] - Domestically, as of September 23, two sugar enterprises in Inner Mongolia have started production for the 2025/26 season, and the estimated sugar production is 650,000 - 680,000 tons, slightly increasing from the previous season [6] - **Market Analysis** - Internationally, Brazilian sugar production is increasing, and the short - term supply is strong, suppressing the raw sugar futures price. However, there is support from the ethanol price [7] - Domestically, sugar sales in August were poor, imports reached a new high, and beet sugar has started to be crushed, so the short - term supply is sufficient [7] Pulp - **Market News and Key Data** - Futures: As of Friday's close, the pulp 2511 contract was at 5,016 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton, a 0.04% decline. Spot: The average spot price of "Yinxing" softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,610 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the average price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,110 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [9] - Internationally, in August 2025, European chemical pulp consumption was 700,800 tons, a 2.35% year - on - year increase, and inventory was 707,800 tons, an 11.34% year - on - year increase [9] - Domestically, the total pulp inventory in one region and eight ports decreased by 4.46% week - on - week, with an expanded decline [9] - **Market Analysis** - Supply: Overseas pulp mills' price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans have some positive impact, but the actual transactions in September were poor, and the global supply pressure remains. Domestic imports decreased in the third quarter, but port inventory remains high [10] - Demand: European and American pulp consumption has been weak. Domestic demand is the main factor suppressing pulp prices. Although there is new paper production capacity, effective demand is insufficient, and paper mills' purchasing is cautious [10]
短期补库动力不足 玉米期价上方或有一定压力
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-28 02:11
9月26日,大商所玉米期货仓单21814手,环比上个交易日持平。 一、行情回顾 9月26日夜盘,玉米期货延续震荡运行走势,主力合约小幅收涨0.37%,报2184.00元/吨。 二、基本面汇总 西南期货:短期国内玉米供需趋向平衡,消费延续回暖,陈粮较为紧俏,港口库存快速回归,库存压力 减退,基差偏强。1-8月玉米进口锐减,进口毛利水平仍偏高,后续进口或有上量空间;中储粮玉米网 拍持续净销售,进口玉米持续轮出,北方主产区玉米逐步开始收获,丰产预期较强,成本或下修,玉米 价格上方或有一定压力,或观望为宜 当前饲企玉米库存季节性减少,延续随用随补。据对全国18个省份,47家规模饲料厂的最新调查数据显 示,截至9月25日,全国饲料企业平均库存26.01天,较上周减少0.15天,环比下跌0.57%,同比下跌 6.94%。 美国农业部(USDA)将在北京时间10月1日(周三)零点发布季度谷物库存报告。分析机构对美国9月 1日玉米库存的平均预估为13.37亿蒲式耳,创四年低位,较之前一年同期下滑24%。然而,这一数字高 于美国农业部9月供需报告中对美国2024/25年度玉米年末库存预估值13.25亿蒲式耳。 三、机构观点 国 ...
格林大华期货鸡蛋周报:现货如期回落,鸡蛋高空思路不变-20250927
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-09-27 08:06
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Corn: The price is expected to explore the planting cost range, and there are opportunities for low - long positions. Maintain an interval trading idea in the medium - and long - term [4][5][6]. - Pig: The downward space of pig prices is limited, and short positions should enter the profit - taking range. Near - month contracts operate based on supply - demand logic, while far - month contracts focus on the expected difference of sow de - capacity [10][11][12]. - Egg: The spot price has fallen as expected, and the short - selling idea remains unchanged. Before large - scale concentrated chicken culling, maintain the short - selling strategy [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn - **Important Information** - On the 26th, the north - south port prices were stable in the north and strong in the south, and the purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises continued to decline in the northeast and rose in the north [4]. - As of the 26th, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the wheat - corn price difference was positive and continued to expand [4]. - On the 26th, the corn auction sales and procurement transactions of CGC were held. The planned sales volume was 371 tons and all were sold, while the planned procurement volume was 11,800 tons with a transaction rate of 30% [5]. - As of the 39th week of 2025, the grain inventory in Guangzhou Port increased month - on - month and year - on - year, with a significant increase in corn inventory [5]. - **Market Logic** - Short - term: The opening price of new grain in the northeast has dropped from a high level. The lower support of the futures price is the port price range of the new season's corn planting cost, and the upper pressure is the wheat - corn price difference [5]. - Medium - term: Conduct band trading around the new season's corn drive, and maintain a wide - range trading idea [5]. - Long - term: Maintain the pricing logic of import substitution + planting cost, and focus on policy orientation [5]. - **Trading Strategy** - Maintain the interval trading idea in the medium - and long - term. Pay attention to the low - long opportunities of the band. The support levels of the 2511 and 2601 contracts are 2100 - 2130 and 2100 - 2120 respectively, and long positions can be held [6]. Pig - **Important Information** - On the 27th, the national average price of live pigs decreased slightly, and it is expected to be stable with a slight increase on the 28th [10]. - In July 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.42 million, and the number of sows culled in large - scale pig farms increased month - on - month [10]. - The price difference between fat and standard pigs narrowed, the average weekly slaughter weight decreased, and the number of futures warehouse receipts decreased [14]. - The central reserve frozen pork will be rotated out on the 28th [14]. - **Market Logic** - Short - term: The temporary supply - demand imbalance suppresses the pig price [11]. - Medium - term: The expected increase in pig supply in the second half of the year restricts the rise of pig prices [11]. - Long - term: The number of fertile sows is still higher than the normal level, and the pig production capacity will continue to be realized throughout the year [11]. - **Trading Strategy** - Near - month contracts operate based on supply - demand logic, and short positions should enter the profit - taking range and be gradually closed. Far - month contracts focus on the expected difference of sow de - capacity [12]. - The support levels of the 2511, 2601, 2603, 2605, and 2607 contracts are 12300 - 12500, 12800 - 13000, 12500, 12900 - 13000, and 13500 - 13600 respectively [12]. Egg - **Important Information** - On the 26th, the egg prices were weakly stable, and the downstream sales slowed down with an increase in inventory [17]. - The price of culled hens decreased, and the weekly culling age increased [17]. - In August, the number of laying hens in stock increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the theoretical estimated value in September decreased month - on - month [17]. - **Market Logic** - Medium - and short - term: As the festival approaches, the stocking intensity weakens, the downstream sales slow down, and the inventory rises, putting pressure on egg prices [17]. - Long - term: Focus on the scale of hen culling. The supply pressure may be realized again in the fourth quarter [17]. - **Trading Strategy** - Before large - scale concentrated chicken culling, maintain the short - selling idea, and hold previous short positions. The pressure levels of the 2511, 2512, 2601, and 2602 contracts are 3090 - 3100, 3200, 3370 - 3380, and 3120 - 3140 respectively. Breeding enterprises can also pay attention to the selling - hedging opportunities of the 2607 and 2608 contracts to lock in breeding profits [18].