Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [12] Core Views - The pig sector shows a narrowing increase in breeding sows, indicating a need to focus on the expectation gap in the pig market [1][3] - The poultry sector, particularly broilers, is experiencing low valuations and potential elasticity in prices due to supply and demand dynamics [19][21] - The planting sector emphasizes food security and the strategic importance of biological breeding, with a focus on self-sufficiency [23] - The pet sector is witnessing a rise in domestic brands and exports, indicating a robust growth trajectory [24][25] - The feed sector is recommended for investment due to its fundamental turning point and relatively low valuations [26] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - As of April 12, the average price of pigs in China is 14.70 CNY/kg, remaining stable week-on-week, with a profit of approximately 164 CNY per head for self-breeding farms [1][16] - The supply side shows a slight decrease in average weight of pigs slaughtered, while demand remains weak, leading to a potential seasonal decline in prices [2][17] - The sector is characterized by low valuations, with major companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs trading at historical lows [3][18] Poultry Sector - The broiler market faces uncertainties due to import restrictions and trade tensions, impacting supply [19][20] - Prices for broiler chicks have increased, with the average price for broiler chicks in Shandong at 3.25 CNY per chick [20] - Investment recommendations include Shengnong Development and Yisheng Livestock, with a focus on the potential for price recovery [20][21] Planting Sector - The report highlights the importance of food security, with significant imports of soybeans, corn, and wheat from the US [23] - The government is pushing for advancements in agricultural technology, particularly in biological breeding [23] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [23] Pet Sector - The domestic pet brand market is growing rapidly, with sales on Douyin reaching 818 million CNY in March, a year-on-year increase of 24.32% [24] - Exports of pet food are also increasing, with a total of 52,800 tons exported in the first two months of 2025, reflecting a 17.11% year-on-year growth [24][25] - Key companies to watch include Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [25] Feed Sector - Hai Da Group is highlighted as a key investment opportunity due to improving market conditions in aquaculture feed [26] - The report notes a significant recovery in prices for various aquatic products, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [26][27]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Insights - The average price of commodity pigs has weakened, with a week-on-week decline of 0.07%, currently at 14.45 CNY/kg. The average price of piglets remained stable after three weeks of decline [8][18] - The planned slaughter volume for March is expected to increase by 2.74% month-on-month, indicating increased market supply pressure [3][27] - The U.S. has imposed tariffs on certain agricultural products, which may affect domestic prices and increase costs for downstream industries [4][32] Summary by Sections Commodity Pig Prices - The average price of commodity pigs has decreased by 0.07% week-on-week, while the average price of piglets has remained stable [8][18] - The average weight of commodity pigs at slaughter has increased, with an average of 123.61 kg, up 0.08% week-on-week [26] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The number of breeding sows has decreased slightly, with a total of 40.62 million sows reported in January, down by 160,000 from the previous month [3][27] - The planned slaughter volume for March is 11.4759 million heads, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.74% [3][27] Profitability and Cost Analysis - The average profit for self-bred pigs is 33.56 CNY/head, down by 9.52 CNY from the previous week, while the average loss for purchased piglets is 12.52 CNY/head, a decrease of 21.91 CNY [28] - The price ratio of culling sows to commodity pigs is 0.71, indicating a slight decline from the previous week [18][26] Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading companies with scale and cost advantages in pig farming, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe [11][33] - In the poultry sector, consider companies with proprietary white feather chicken breeding sources [11][33]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [11] Core Insights - The pig sector shows slight inertia growth in breeding stock, highlighting the undervaluation and expectation gap in the sector [3][16] - The poultry sector emphasizes the fundamentals of white chickens and the marginal changes in breeding imports [17][18] - The feed sector recommends Hai Da Group due to its fundamental turning point and relatively low valuation [21] - The pet sector sees a rise in domestic brands and a positive trend in pet food exports [25][26] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - As of March 8, the national average pig price is 14.68 CNY/kg, remaining stable week-on-week, with a profit of approximately 154 CNY per head for self-breeding farms [1][15] - The supply side shows an average market weight of 127.06 kg for pigs, with a 4.23% share of pigs over 150 kg, indicating a potential seasonal decline in prices due to weak demand [2][15] - The sector is characterized by low valuations, with major companies like Muyuan and Wens below 2000 CNY per head, suggesting a historical low valuation [3][16] Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector faces uncertainty in breeding imports due to outbreaks of avian influenza, leading to a significant drop in domestic breeding stock [4][17] - Chicken prices have rebounded, with the average price for live chickens in Shandong at 3.30 CNY per bird, supported by positive restocking sentiment [4][18] - Investment recommendations include Shengnong Development and attention to Yisheng and Minhe [5][18] Feed Sector - Hai Da Group is recommended due to its market share increase and expected improvement in the aquaculture feed market after a prolonged downturn [21] - Prices for various aquatic products have shown significant increases, indicating a potential recovery in the aquaculture sector [21] Pet Sector - Domestic brands like Guibao Pet are expanding their market share through independent brand operations, targeting different price segments [25][26] - Pet food exports have seen a substantial increase, with a year-on-year growth of 26% in volume and 22% in value, reflecting a robust market [25][26] Agricultural Technology - The application of genetically modified technology is expected to accelerate, enhancing agricultural productivity and competitiveness among leading seed companies [23][24] - The low-altitude economy is projected to grow significantly, with policies supporting the development of smart agriculture and drone applications [23][24]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [11] Core Views - The pig sector shows a divergence between pig prices and piglet prices, with pig prices rebounding while piglet prices continue to decline. The average price of pigs is 14.87 CNY/kg, up 1.09% from last week, with an average profit of approximately 225 CNY per head for self-breeding and self-raising operations [1][15] - The poultry sector is experiencing low valuations and elasticity, particularly in the white chicken segment, where supply pressures are exacerbated by restrictions on overseas breeding imports due to avian influenza outbreaks [3][17] - The feed sector is recommended for investment due to a fundamental turning point and relatively low valuations, with Hai Da Group highlighted as a key player [5][21] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - Pig prices have rebounded, with an average price of 14.87 CNY/kg as of February 22, 2025, while piglet prices are declining, indicating a potential short-term weakness in piglet pricing [1][15] - Supply remains low with an average slaughter weight of 125.68 kg, and the proportion of pigs over 150 kg is 4.11% [1][15] - The sector is considered undervalued, with major companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs having head valuations below 2000 CNY per head, suggesting potential for recovery [2][16] Poultry Sector - The white chicken segment faces supply pressure due to halted overseas breeding imports, leading to a significant drop in domestic breeding stock [3][17] - Chicken prices have stabilized, with the average price for live chickens at 2.80 CNY per bird, and expectations for price recovery as processing plants resume operations [3][17] - Investment recommendations include Shengnong Development and other companies in the poultry sector due to anticipated demand recovery [4][18] Feed Sector - Hai Da Group is highlighted as a key investment opportunity due to improving market conditions in aquaculture feed after a prolonged downturn [5][21] - The prices of various aquatic products have shown a mixed trend, with some prices increasing due to supply constraints [5][21] Seed and Agricultural Technology - The application of genetically modified technology is expected to accelerate, enhancing the competitiveness of leading seed companies [7][23] - The low-altitude economy is identified as a growth area, with significant potential for agricultural applications of drones [7][23] Pet Sector - Domestic pet brands are rapidly growing, with significant sales increases in pet food, indicating a robust market for local brands [9][25] - Pet food exports have also seen substantial growth, reflecting a healthy export market [9][25] - Recommended companies in the pet sector include Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., Ltd. due to their strong market positions [9][27]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Accumulate" [5] Core Insights - The average price of piglets has decreased for two consecutive weeks, while the price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs has narrowed week-on-week [1][11] - The average selling price of commodity pigs has increased by 1.17% week-on-week, reaching 14.76 yuan/kg as of February 21, 2025, but short-term price support is lacking due to post-Spring Festival demand decline [15][26] - The average price of piglets has dropped by 5.70% week-on-week, ending a six-week upward trend, with the average price for 7kg piglets at 488.57 yuan/head [15][29] - The average price of culling sows has increased by 1.56% week-on-week, reaching 10.42 yuan/kg [15][26] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The average weight of commodity pigs at the time of sale has increased by 0.08% week-on-week to 123.48kg, and the average post-slaughter weight has increased by 0.24% to 91.52kg [26] - The price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs is -1.28 yuan/kg, indicating a narrowing week-on-week, with downstream slaughter volumes showing a week-on-week increase [26][29] Profitability Insights - As of February 21, 2025, the average profit for self-bred pigs is 46.84 yuan/head, an increase of 24.72 yuan/head week-on-week, while the profit for purchased piglets is 27.69 yuan/head, up by 31.93 yuan/head week-on-week [29][30] Investment Strategy - Recommendations include focusing on leading companies with breeding scale and cost advantages such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others in the pig farming sector [9][31] - In the poultry sector, attention is drawn to companies with proprietary breeding sources like Shennong Development and others [31][33] - The animal health sector is also highlighted, with suggestions to invest in companies benefiting from the upward pig cycle [32][33]