Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the black building materials are expected to oscillate, including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and ferromanganese [2][6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16] 2. Core Viewpoints - The black series as a whole has rebounded, driven by the rebound of coking coal and coke. However, due to the approaching off - season in the domestic construction and manufacturing industries, demand is hard to increase. With the large increase in iron ore shipments and the lack of obvious improvement in the supply of coking coal and coke, the market is expected to oscillate in the future [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines are expected to increase shipments seasonally before early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. Steel mills' profitability and hot metal production have slightly decreased, but are expected to remain high in the short term. Last week, the arrival decreased, leading to a slight decline in inventory. With the seasonal increase in overseas shipments, there is an expectation of a small - scale phased increase in ore inventory, but the amplitude is expected to be limited. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [2][8] Carbon Element - The number of coal mines shut down due to inventory pressure and environmental inspections has increased, and coking coal production has declined, but the overall market supply is not tight. Coke production has declined from a high level, and there is an expectation of further decline. During the price cut cycle, coke enterprises' enthusiasm for raw material replenishment is poor, and the upstream inventory of coking coal remains at a high level in recent years. The supply contraction is limited, and the downstream demand in the off - season tends to decline. The coking coal price lacks a driving force for a trending increase in the short term [3] Alloys - **Silicon Manganese**: There was a rumor about a mine dam failure, but it was verified that production and transportation are normal. Manganese ore prices have stabilized, and traders are reluctant to sell at low prices. A factory in Inner Mongolia plans to put new production capacity into operation in the second half of the month, and silicon manganese production may continue to increase. With the off - season approaching, the supply - demand of silicon manganese tends to be loose, and the manganese ore price is expected to loosen. The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3][15] - **Silicon Iron**: Affected by the improvement in the energy sector, the silicon iron futures price rose from a low level. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the downstream is about to enter the off - season, with a strong willingness to destock. The market sentiment is still cautious. The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel procurement and production [16] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: In the off - season, demand is declining, deep - processing demand is weakening, and the spot price is falling. There is a production line planned for cold repair, and 5 production lines are waiting to produce glass. The supply pressure remains. The market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [6][13] - **Soda Ash**: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. After the resumption of maintenance, the short - term is expected to oscillate, and the price center will decline in the long term [6][13] Individual Commodity Analysis - **Steel**: The domestic policy is in a vacuum period, and the war between Iran and Israel has repaired the valuation of overseas commodities. The overall supply and demand of steel have weakened this week, but inventory is still being depleted. The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - **Scrap Steel**: With the deepening of the off - season for building materials, the apparent demand for rebar has decreased. The supply of scrap steel is tight, but the market is pessimistic about off - season demand. The scrap steel price is expected to oscillate [9] - **Coke**: Terminal steel demand is in the off - season, and downstream procurement is cautious. The supply has decreased, but the upstream inventory is high, and the demand is expected to decline. The coke price is under downward pressure [10][11] - **Coking Coal**: The spot market is pessimistic, and the supply remains loose. The production decline is limited, and the downstream demand in the off - season is expected to fall. The coking coal price increase is restricted in the short term [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is mainly "oscillating", with glass and soda ash having a "weak - oscillating" outlook [6][7][10][11][12][14]. 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, the black - building materials market is in a state of oscillation. Although the previous price decline has accumulated strong momentum, and there was a large - scale rebound after macro - positive and coking coal news, the approaching off - season in the domestic construction and manufacturing industries, combined with factors such as increased iron ore shipments and unimproved fundamentals of coking coal and coke, have led to the price returning to a weak state [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Iron Element - Overseas mines are increasing shipments at the end of the fiscal year and quarter, with shipments expected to remain high until early July. Steel enterprises' profitability is stable, and hot metal production has slightly decreased but is expected to remain high in the short term. The supply - demand balance is tight, with limited short - term inventory accumulation pressure. There may be a slight increase in port inventory at the end of the month, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [2][7]. Carbon Element - Some coal mines have slightly reduced production due to factors such as changing working faces, inventory pressure, and safety, but most coal mines are operating normally, and coking coal production remains relatively high. Mongolian coal transactions are limited, and port inventory is accumulating. On the demand side, coke production has started to decline, and coke enterprises' inventory pressure is increasing, with shrinking coking profits. During the price - cut period, coke enterprises' enthusiasm for replenishing raw material inventory has decreased, and the upstream inventory pressure of coking coal has increased. The supply contraction of coking coal is limited, and there is no driving force for a trend - like price increase [3]. Alloys - **Silicon Manganese**: The cost side is under pressure as manganese ore prices may decline. The supply in some regions has slightly increased, but due to cost inversion, manufacturers' willingness to sell is low. The demand is weak as the black market enters the off - season, and downstream buyers are pressing for lower prices. The supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and the short - term disk is expected to oscillate [3][5][14]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply has slightly increased, and the terminal steel - using industry is about to enter the off - season. Downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to reduce inventory, and the market sentiment is cautious. The cost may still have a negative impact. The short - term disk is expected to be under pressure and oscillate, and future steel procurement and production conditions should be monitored [5][14]. Glass - In the off - season, demand is declining, and the deep - processing demand is still weak compared to the same period last year, leading to a decline in spot prices. On the supply side, there are expectations of both cold - repair and ignition, and there are 6 production lines waiting to produce glass, so supply pressure remains. The upstream inventory has increased significantly, while the mid - stream inventory has decreased. There are rumors in the supply side, but the actual impact is limited. Coal prices are also expected to decline, and market sentiment fluctuates. The disk price is lower than the spot price, but the price cut of Hubei's spot glass has led the disk price to decline. The short - term view is weak - oscillating [5]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the resumption of maintenance has increased supply. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, the price center will continue to decline [5][12]. Other Products - **Steel**: The domestic policy is in a vacuum period after the Sino - US talks. The demand for the five major steel products has weakened this week, and the supply has not decreased significantly, but hot metal production may have peaked. The inventory is still decreasing, and the main factors suppressing the disk price are the decline in raw material prices and the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand. The short - term steel price is expected to oscillate [7]. - **Scrap Steel**: As the building materials off - season deepens, the apparent demand for rebar has decreased. The market is pessimistic about off - season demand, and the finished product disk price is under pressure. The supply of scrap steel has decreased this week, which supports the price. The demand has slightly increased overall, but the inventory in steel mills has decreased due to a significant drop in arrivals. The scrap steel price is expected to oscillate following the finished product price [7]. - **Coke**: After the third price cut, the terminal steel - using demand is in the off - season, and the market is pessimistic. There is an expectation of further price cuts. The supply has slightly decreased in some regions, but overall production is stable, and the inventory of coke enterprises is accumulating. The demand is weakening as hot metal production declines. The price is under downward pressure due to weak demand support and cost drag [7][9][10]. - **Coking Coal**: The market transaction price has continued to decline. Some coal mines have reduced production, but the overall supply is still abundant. The demand for coking coal is declining as coke production weakens. The upstream inventory pressure has increased during the price - cut period. The short - term price lacks the driving force for a trend - like increase and is expected to be weak [7][11].

中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-06-11 宏观扰动频繁，⿊⾊在成本⽀撑附近震 荡运⾏ 中美谈判消息繁多，⿊⾊系价格在成本⽀撑位附近震荡运⾏。临近淡 季，建材需求弱势不改，⼯业材需求也⾯临⾼位回落压⼒，市场前景 依然偏悲观。⽬前电炉和部分⾼炉已亏损，铁⽔产量拐点显现。海外 矿⼭财年末冲量，虽然是预期内动作但仍对市场情绪产⽣利空作⽤。 不过钢⼚整体盈利率持稳，减产空间暂时有限，负反馈条件尚不成 熟。价格在⽀撑位附近探涨等待利好契机，但⽬前上⽅压制⼒度仍较 强。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 ⿊⾊：宏观扰动频繁，⿊⾊在成本⽀撑附近震荡运⾏ 中美谈判消息繁多，黑色系价格在成本支撑位附近震荡运行。临近淡 季，建材需求弱势不改，工业材需求也面临高位回落压力，市场前景 依然偏悲观。目前电炉和部分高炉已亏损，铁水产量拐点显现。海外 矿山财年末冲量，虽然是预期内动作但仍对市场情绪产生利空作用。 不过钢厂整体盈利率持稳，减产空间暂时有限，负反馈条件尚不成 熟。价格在支撑位附近探涨等待利好契机，但目前上方压制力度仍较 强。 1、铁元素方面，海外矿山开始财年末和季末冲量，发运量有季节性 增加预期，7月上 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-06-06 宏观情绪提振，价格延续⼩幅回暖态势 双焦尽管有利好消息刺激，但现货供给和库存仍有压⼒，钢材周度供 需数据偏弱，市场对淡季前景依然偏悲观，⽇盘呈现回落迹象。不过 盘后中美关系传来缓和信号，夜盘价格随之反弹。产业情况变化有 限，国内需求季节性⾛弱，⽬前电炉和部分⾼炉已开始亏损，铁⽔产 量预期内回落，但整体盈利率尚可限制减量空间。综合来看，估值低 位叠加消息炒作带来反弹驱动，但⾼度有限。 ⿊⾊：宏观情绪提振，价格延续⼩幅回暖态势 双焦尽管有利好消息刺激，但现货供给和库存仍有压力，钢材周度供 需数据偏弱，市场对淡季前景依然偏悲观，日盘呈现回落迹象。不过 盘后中美关系传来缓和信号，夜盘价格随之反弹。产业情况变化有 限，国内需求季节性走弱，目前电炉和部分高炉已开始亏损，铁水产 量预期内回落，但整体盈利率尚可限制减量空间。综合来看，估值低 位叠加消息炒作带来反弹驱动，但高度有限。 1、铁元素方面，供应端海外增量释放不及预期，全年累计发运同比 下降，且新项目爬坡放缓，全年增量下调；需求端钢企盈利率持稳， 铁水微降，预计短期可 ...

| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月4日 | | | 問敏波 | 20010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3090 | 3120 | -30 | 185 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3150 | 3160 | -10 | 245 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3200 | 3230 | -30 | 295 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2910 | 2973 | -63 | 180 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2928 | 2961 | -33 | 162 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 2905 | 2967 | -62 | 185 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3170 | 3170 | 0 | 125 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3100 | 3140 | -40 | ਵੇਂ | | | 热卷现 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Oscillating [6] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [6] - Scrap Steel: Oscillating [7] - Coke: Oscillating Weakly [7] - Coking Coal: Oscillating Weakly [10] - Glass: Oscillating Weakly [11] - Soda Ash: Oscillating Weakly [11] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [13] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [14] Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the Dragon Boat Festival, the macro - sentiment was weak, and the US further imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, causing the prices of black building materials to decline. However, the actual impact of tariffs was limited, and there were rumors of Mongolia increasing resource taxes, leading to a price rebound at night. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the manufacturing's rush for exports is less than expected. Although some electric furnaces and blast furnaces are in the red, the overall profitability provides cost support. Low valuations drive price rebounds, but the upside is limited [1][2]. - In terms of iron elements, the overseas supply increase is lower than expected, and the annual cumulative shipment is down year - on - year. The new projects' progress is slow, and the annual increase is revised down. Steel enterprises' profitability and orders are good, and the molten iron output is expected to remain high. Before September, the inventory accumulation pressure is small, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [2]. - For carbon elements, the coking coal production remains high, and the Mongolian coal port clearance is also at a high level, resulting in a loose supply. The coke production is at a high level, but coke enterprises face inventory reduction pressure, and the coking profit is shrinking. The coking coal inventory pressure upstream is increasing, and it's difficult to find price support [2]. - Regarding alloys, the arrival of South32 Australian ore at the port increases the pressure on oxidized ore spot. The ban on manganese ore exports by Gabon has no obvious impact on the domestic market. With the recovery of manganese ore shipments, the port inventory is rising, and the cost drag persists. The ferrosilicon supply increases slightly, and the downstream is eager to reduce inventory. The glass demand decline in the off - season is not obvious, and the supply - side news can cause market fluctuations. The soda ash supply surplus pattern remains unchanged [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Core Logic: The overseas supply increase is lower than expected, and the annual cumulative shipment is down year - on - year. New projects' progress is slow, and the annual increase is revised down. Steel enterprises' profitability and orders are good, and the molten iron output is expected to remain high, so the annual molten iron output is expected to be higher than last year. Before September, the inventory accumulation pressure is small, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The black sector rebounded last night, and iron ore also rose slightly [2][6]. - Outlook: The US tariff policy has limited actual negative impact on iron ore, but may cause pessimistic sentiment. Considering the uncertain policies, the tight supply - demand balance, and the fact that the price has factored in many negative factors, the room for further significant decline is limited [6]. Steel - Core Logic: The domestic policy is in a vacuum, and there are still tariff risks. The demand for the five major steel products rebounded this week, but the domestic demand outlook is weak. The molten iron output is high, and the steel production has increased. Although the supply - demand fundamentals improved this week and the inventory decreased, the falling raw material prices and pessimistic demand expectations suppress the price [6]. - Outlook: The fundamentals improved this week, but the outlook is still pessimistic, and the raw material prices are weakening. The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The post - holiday scrap steel arrival was low, and the loss during off - peak electricity hours increased. The apparent demand for rebar rebounded slightly, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The supply was tight after the holiday, and the demand from electric furnaces and blast furnaces was affected. The inventory increased slightly [7]. - Outlook: The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, the finished product price is under pressure, and the electric furnace loss is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [7]. Coke - Core Logic: The second round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the market is pessimistic. The supply is stable, but the demand is weakening as the molten iron output declines and the off - season approaches [7][9]. - Outlook: The falling coking coal price weakens the cost support, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [9]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: The market trading atmosphere is weak, and coal mines face shipment pressure. The supply is still loose as the production remains high and the Mongolian coal port clearance is high. The coke production is high, but coke enterprises face inventory reduction pressure, and the coking profit is shrinking. The upstream inventory pressure is increasing [10]. - Outlook: The market is pessimistic, the supply - demand is loose, and the high inventory suppresses the price. The price is expected to remain weak [10]. Glass - Core Logic: The off - season demand decline is not obvious, and the deep - processing demand improved month - on - month but is still weak year - on - year. There was cold - repair and复产, and the supply pressure remains. The inventory decreased slightly, and the market is sensitive to supply - side news [3][11]. - Outlook: The real - world demand faces pressure in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price cuts in Hubei [11]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. The supply pressure persists as some enterprises' production has recovered. The demand for heavy alkali is for rigid needs, and the increase in float glass daily melting is uncertain. The short - term inventory decreased due to maintenance, but the long - term surplus remains [11]. - Outlook: The supply surplus remains, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and decline in the long term [11]. Ferrosilicon Manganese - Core Logic: The ferrosilicon manganese price was weak. The cost pressure is high as the market is bearish on raw materials, and the South32 Australian ore is arriving at the port. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak as the black market enters the off - season [13]. - Outlook: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to continue to decline as the manganese ore inventory rises and the coke price is falling [13]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The ferrosilicon price was weak. The supply increased slightly as some furnaces were restarted. The demand is weak as the steel market enters the off - season and the metal magnesium market is sluggish [14]. - Outlook: The supply and demand are both weak, and the demand may weaken further. The price is expected to oscillate under pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel procurement and production [14].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-05-28 现货转弱，悲观情绪不改 ⿊⾊连续多⽇增仓下跌，现货市场⼼态趋于谨慎，跟随降价出售。 从基本⾯看，国内需求季节性⾛弱，出⼝悲观情绪加剧，"抢出⼝" 似乎不及预期。部分⾼炉检修，铁⽔⾼位回落，限产传闻进⼀步利空 炉料。不过对⽐去年情况来看，今年钢材库存压⼒不⼤，钢⼚利润尚 可。海外矿⼭新增产能增量不明显，港⼝库存持续去化。综合来看， 若出⼝未出现明显恶化，⽬前产业供需情况不⽀持趋势性下跌。 ⿊⾊：现货转弱，悲观情绪不改 黑色连续多日增仓下跌，现货市场心态趋于谨慎，跟随降价出售。 从基本面看，国内需求季节性走弱，出口悲观情绪加剧，"抢出口" 似乎不及预期。部分高炉检修，铁水高位回落，限产传闻进一步利空 炉料。不过对比去年情况来看，今年钢材库存压力不大，钢厂利润尚 可。海外矿山新增产能增量不明显，港口库存持续去化。综合来看， 若出口未出现明显恶化，目前产业供需情况不支持趋势性下跌。 1、铁元素方面，铁矿短期供给增量不明显，因海外新项目爬坡进度 不及预期，年内供应增量预期将下调；需求端钢企短期被动减产压力 依然较小；库 ...