Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/ bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability in the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, similar to crude oil, with a bias but limited operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, same as above [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, with a bias but limited operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability and a wait - and - see approach [1] Core Viewpoints - The global oil market will have supply surpluses of 1.84 million barrels per day and 3.31 million barrels per day this year and next year respectively, and the surplus will gradually expand quarter by quarter. There is still a downward risk in the crude oil market this year [1] - The fuel oil market is affected by geopolitical factors, and the upward drive for high - sulfur cracking is limited. The low - sulfur market has improved fundamentals [2] - The 2601 asphalt contract has some support at 3000 yuan/ton, and the fundamental bearish factors still suppress the market in the medium - to - long term [3] - The LPG market is expected to fluctuate strongly due to tightened supply - demand margins [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Based on the latest adjustments of the supply - demand balance sheets by three major institutions in November, considering OPEC+ suspending production increases and strictly implementing production cut compensation in the first quarter of next year, the global oil market will have supply surpluses of 1.84 million barrels per day and 3.31 million barrels per day this year and next year respectively. The supply surplus will gradually expand quarter by quarter, and the most relaxed quarter (Q1 next year) has not arrived yet. Since the fourth quarter, the inventory accumulation rate of global oil at 2.4% has exceeded that of the previous three quarters, and the supply surplus is increasingly evident in the inventory. There is still a downward risk in the crude oil market this year, and attention should be paid to the realization of geopolitical risks related to Venezuela [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The drone attack on Russia's Novorossiysk today damaged the oil terminal facilities, driving up the prices of crude - related products, and fuel oil followed suit. In terms of fundamentals, high - sulfur fuel oil is still supported by geopolitical factors in the short term. Sanctions and attacks on Russia continue to disrupt the supply side, and the possible further sanctions on Venezuela by the US also bring uncertainties. However, the actual reduction in supply needs further observation. The demand side is at the end of the power - generation peak season, and the increase in Middle - East supply offsets the impact, and the demand for refinery feedstock is also weak, so the upward drive for high - sulfur cracking is limited. The low - sulfur market has seen a relief in supply pressure due to unstable operation of overseas refineries. The strengthening of the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel provides support from the perspective of production conversion. Coupled with the peak season of bunker fuel demand in the fourth quarter and the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the fundamentals have improved compared with the previous period [2] Asphalt - The 2601 contract has some support at 3000 yuan/ton. The worse - than - expected shipment volume not only disproves the expectation of rush - demand in the final year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" but also sends a negative signal that the demand is lower than the same period last year. The destocking of the latest commercial inventory continues to slow down, and the year - on - year increase in social inventory has widened after reaching an inflection point of being higher than the same period last year at the end of October. In the medium - to - long term, the bearish fundamentals still suppress the BU market [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international LPG market has been trending strongly recently, and the supply of imported resources is tight. The improved profitability of butane dehydrogenation plants has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start production, and the significant cooling in many places has led to an improvement in combustion - end demand. The storage capacity utilization rates of refineries and ports have decreased. The tightening of supply - demand margins has boosted the LPG market to be regarded as fluctuating strongly [3]

Group 1 - In the first half of 2025, Anhui Province's industrial enterprises produced a total of 435,000 tons of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), marking a 0.10% increase compared to the same period in 2024, but a significant slowdown of 39.3 percentage points [1] - The production growth rate in Anhui is 2.7 percentage points higher than the national average, which stands at 26,259,000 tons for the same period [1] - In June 2025, the LPG production in Anhui reached 72,000 tons, reflecting a 1.00% decrease from June 2024, with a growth rate decline of 53.0 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] Group 2 - The June 2025 LPG production in Anhui accounted for 1.7% of the national total of 4,359,000 tons for that month [2] - The data reflects a trend of slowing growth in LPG production within Anhui, despite being above the national average in certain months [1][2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The domestic civil LPG market may show a pattern of stronger in the south and weaker in the north, with an overall expectation of a peak season [1]. - The contraction of PDH profits may lead to a decline in propane demand, and the current domestic market valuation is high and may fall [1]. - The international propane market is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to weather and US cold wave conditions [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Day - to - Day Changes - In the civil gas market on Wednesday, prices in East China were 4378 (-9), in Shandong 4440 (+40), and in South China 4490 (+0). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4630 (+0). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 85 (+68), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 96 (+11). FEI was 498.71 (+3.71) and CP was 473.71 (+5.71) dollars/ton [1]. - The PG main contract fluctuated. The basis was 102 (+116), the 12 - 01 month spread was 72 (-8), and the number of warehouse receipts was 4444 (+250). The cheapest delivery product was East China civil LPG at 4374; prices in Shandong were 4380 (+80), in East China 4374 (+95), and in South China 4450 (+50). The price of Shandong ether - post carbon four was 4500 (+80) [1]. - The external market price declined; the domestic - foreign spread strengthened, with PG - CP reaching 137 (+4), PG - FEI reaching 113 (+15.6), and FEI - MB reaching 153 (-1.8). The CIF discount of propane in East China was 85 US dollars (+6), and the freight rate was basically flat. The FEI - MOPI spread widened, and the switching window remained open, with the latest value at - 73 (-6) [1]. Weekly Viewpoints - The cracking spread of naphtha changed little and remained at a relatively high level this year. The profit of PDH production of propylene in Shandong decreased significantly (some plants were shut down), the profit of alkylation plants rebounded, the production gross profit of MTBE changed little, and the export profit fluctuated [1]. - Domestic production decreased, factory inventories were basically flat, the arrival potential was limited, terminal sales improved, and port inventories decreased. The PDH operating rate was 75.49% (+1.6) due to Li Huayi Weiyuan operating at full capacity, while Binhua, Xintai, and Haiwei shut down successively [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic civil gas may show a pattern of stronger in the south and weaker in the north, with an overall expectation of a peak season. The profit contraction of PDH may lead to a decline in propane demand, and the current domestic market valuation is high with a possible decline. The international propane market is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to the weather and cold snaps in the United States [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price Changes - On Tuesday, for civil gas, the price in East China was 4387 (+10), in Shandong was 4400 (+20), and in South China was 4490 (+35). The price of etherified C4 was 4630 (+0). The lowest delivery location was East China, with the basis changing by 17 (-37) daily, and the December - January spread was 85 (-5). FEI was 493 (-1.75) and CP was 468 (+0) US dollars per ton [1]. - The PG main contract fluctuated. The basis was 102 (+116), the December - January spread was 72 (-8). The number of warehouse receipts was 4444 lots (+250). The cheapest deliverable was the civil gas in East China at 4374; in Shandong it was 4380 (+80), in East China it was 4374 (+95), and in South China it was 4450 (+50). The price of Shandong etherified C4 was 4500 (+80). The external market price declined; the domestic - foreign spread strengthened, with PG - CP reaching 137 (+4), PG - FEI reaching 113 (+15.6); FEI - MB was 153 (-1.8). The arrival discount of propane in East China was 85 US dollars (+6), and the freight was basically flat. The FEI - MOPI spread widened, and the switching window remained open, with the latest at -73 (-6) [1]. Industry Profit and Operation - The profit of propylene production from Shandong PDH dropped significantly (some plants were shut down). The profit of alkylation plants rebounded. The production gross profit of MTBE changed little, and the export profit fluctuated. Domestic production decreased, the factory inventory was basically flat; the arrival was limited, the terminal sales improved, and the port inventory decreased. The PDH operating rate was 75.45% (+1.6), as Lihuayi Weiyuan started to full - load operation, while Binhua, Xintai, and Haiwei shut down successively [1].

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region reached 501,000 tons, representing a decline of 14.1% compared to the same period in 2024, with a growth rate 29.9 percentage points lower than that of 2024 and 11.5 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - In June 2025, the LPG production in Guangxi was 105,000 tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, but the growth rate was 7.5 percentage points lower than in June 2024, while it was 11.4 percentage points higher than the national growth rate for the same month [2] Production Analysis - The total LPG production from large-scale industrial enterprises in Guangxi accounted for 1.9% of the national total of 26,259,000 tons in the first half of 2025 [1] - In June 2025, Guangxi's LPG production represented 2.4% of the national total of 4,359,000 tons for that month [2] Monthly Trends - The monthly production data indicates a slowdown in growth for Guangxi's LPG sector, with the first half of 2025 showing a significant decline compared to the previous year [1] - The June 2025 production figures suggest a mixed performance, with a positive growth rate compared to the previous year but still reflecting a slowdown in growth momentum [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The IPG main contract fluctuated upward. The domestic trading atmosphere is expected to improve, and prices may rise slightly, but the upward momentum may be limited due to the decline in the official CP price [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Changes - On Thursday, for civil gas, the price in East China was 4374 (+33), in Shandong 4360 (+0), and in South China 4440 (+50). The price of etherified carbon four was 4520 (-90). The lowest delivery location was Shandong [1] - The FEI was 490 (-14) and the CP was 463 (-7) dollars per ton. The IPG main contract fluctuated upward. The basis was -14 (+55), and the December - January spread was 80 (-33) [1] - The cheapest deliverable was civil gas in East China at 4279; Shandong was 4300 (-60), East China 4279 (+0), and South China 4400 (-5). The etherified carbon four in Shandong was 4420 (-50) [1] - The number of warehouse receipts was 4194 lots (+1778). The external market price increased, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. The FEI monthly spread was -5 dollars (-1.75), and the CP monthly spread was -14.4 dollars (-6.4) [1] - The official November CP price dropped to 475/460 (-20/-15). The domestic and foreign PG - CP was 133 (-18); PG - FEI was 97 (-18.6). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. The FEI - CP was 35.75 (+0.75) [1] - The on - shore account water for propane in East China was 85 (+6). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 129 (+13), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 68 (+12). The FEI - MOPI was -66.7 (-15.8) [1] Profit and Demand - The profit of PDH decreased slightly. The profit of alkylation units declined significantly, and the production gross profit of MTBE changed little. Domestic production decreased, imports increased, port inventory rebounded, but there was an expected increase in chemical demand [1] Market Structure - The basis changed by +55 to -14, and the December - January spread changed by -33 to 80. The lowest delivery location was Shandong, and the basis changed by +63 to 26, and the December - January spread changed by -16 to 72 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - end crude oil facing supply - surplus pressure and geopolitical disturbances, with the current price oscillating around $65, and OPEC maintaining an increasing production state [2] - The November CP contract price was announced, with propane at $475/ton (-$20) and butane at $460/ton (-$15), better than expected. The equivalent RMB landed cost is about 4394 yuan/ton for propane and 4276 yuan/ton for butane [2] - US propane inventories continued to accumulate this week, reaching a historical high and waiting for an inventory inflection point [2] - The State Council adjusted tariff - adding measures on November 10, 2025. The 24% tariff on US imports will be suspended for one year, and the 10% tariff on PG will remain, which helps stabilize logistics [3] - During the Sino - US talks this week, an agreement was reached on issues such as tariffs and export controls, and the Sino - US economic and trade friction was suspended [4] - The domestic LPG fundamentals are relatively stable. Supply increased this week, while demand remained stable. However, due to the rise in propane price and the decline in PL/PP price, PDH profits were significantly compressed. Continuous or deepening losses may cause negative feedback [4] - PDH losses may cause negative feedback, and propane cracking profits have also shrunk below zero [5] Summary by Related Catalogs LPG Price Range Prediction - The predicted monthly price range for LPG is 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.37% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentage of 35.54% [1] LPG Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short PG2512 futures at 4400 - 4500 yuan/ton with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs; also, sell PG2512C4400 call options at 60 - 70 yuan with a 25% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [1] Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy PG2512 futures at around 4000 yuan/ton with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs; also, sell PG2512P4000 put options at 50 - 70 yuan with a 25% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot buying price if the PG price drops [1] Industry Data Summary - The report provides price, spread, monthly spread, price ratio, and profit data for various LPG - related products on different dates, including Brent, WTI, MOPJ, etc., along with their daily and weekly changes [7] Seasonal Data - The report presents seasonal data for prices, spreads, monthly spreads, price ratios, profits, and freight rates of various LPG - related products, such as LPG futures, FEI, CP, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [9][11][17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic trading atmosphere is expected to improve, and prices may rise slightly. However, the downward trend of CP official prices may limit the upward momentum of prices, despite the positive impact of the settlement of Sino - US tariffs on FEI and MB [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - **Daily price changes**: In the civil gas market, prices in East China were 4341 (+26), in Shandong 4360 (+0), and in South China 4390 (+0). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4610 (-90). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 110 (+38), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 76 (-4). FEI was 494 (-10) and CP was 466 (-12) dollars per ton [1] - **IPG contract situation**: The main IPG contract fluctuated upward. The basis was - 14 (+55), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 80 (-33). The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4279. Shandong's price was 4300 (-60), East China's was 4279 (+0), South China's was 4400 (-5), and Shandong's ether - post - carbon four was 4420 (-50). The number of warehouse receipts was 4194 (+1778) [1] External Market and Spread - **External market price changes**: External market prices rose, and the oil - gas ratio declined. The FEI month spread was - 5 (-1.75) dollars, and the CP month spread was - 14.4 (-6.4) dollars. The November CP official price dropped to 475/460 (-20/-15). The domestic and foreign PG - CP spread was 133 (-18.6), and the US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. The FEI - CP spread was 35.75 (+0.75). The arrival discount of propane in East China was 85 (+6). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 129 (+13), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 68 (+12). The latest FEI - MOPI was - 66.7 (-15.8) [1] Profit and Demand - **Profit situation**: PDH profit decreased slightly, the profit of alkylation units declined significantly, and the production gross profit of MTBE changed little [1] - **Supply, demand and inventory**: Domestic production decreased, imports increased, and port inventories rebounded. However, there was an expected increase in chemical demand. The PDH operating rate was 73.85% (+2.6 pct). Next week, Binhua will undergo maintenance, but Lihuayi Weiyuan will increase production, and Donghua Zhangjiagang will restart [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The IPG main contract fluctuated upward. The domestic trading atmosphere is expected to improve, and prices may rise slightly, but the upward momentum may be limited due to the decline in CP official prices despite the positive impact of the China - US tariff agreement on FEI and MB [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price Data - **Daily Changes in Civil Gas and Ether - After Carbon Four**: On Tuesday, for civil gas, the price in East China was 4315 (+18), in Shandong 4360 (+0), and in South China 4390 (-5). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4700 (+20). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 76 (+90), and the 12 - 01 monthly spread was 96 (+18). FEI was 503 (-15) and CP was 471 (-11) dollars/ton [1] - **IPG Main Contract Data**: The IPG main contract fluctuated upward. The basis was - 14 (+55), and the 12 - 01 monthly spread was 80 (-33). The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4279. Shandong was 4300 (-60), East China 4279 (+0), South China 4400 (-5), and Shandong ether - after carbon four was 4420 (-50). The number of warehouse receipts was 4194 hands (+1778) [1] - **External Market and Related Price Data**: External market prices rose, and the oil - gas ratio declined. The FEI monthly spread was - 5 dollars (-1.75), and the CP monthly spread was - 14.4 dollars (-6.4). The November CP official price dropped to 475/460 (-20/-15). The domestic and foreign PG - CP was 133 (-18.6). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. FEI - CP was 35.75 (+0.75). The East China propane arrival discount was 85 (+6). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 129 (+13), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 68 (+12). FEI - MOPI was - 66.7 (-15.8) [1] Industry Conditions - **Profit and Inventory**: PDH profit decreased slightly, the profit of alkylation units declined significantly, and the production gross profit of MTBE changed little. Domestic production decreased, imports increased, and port inventories rebounded, but there is an expected increase in chemical demand [1] - **Operating Rate and Equipment Status**: The PDH operating rate was 73.85% (+2.6 pct). Next week, Binhu will undergo maintenance, while Lihuayi Weiyuan will increase production and Donghua Zhangjiagang will restart [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic trading atmosphere is expected to improve, and prices may rise slightly. However, the decline in CP official prices may limit the upward momentum of prices, despite the positive impact of the Sino - US tariff agreement on FEI and MB [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price Changes - On Monday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4297 (+18), in Shandong 4360 (+60), and in South China 4395 (-5). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4680 (+260). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 4 (+57), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 100 (+24). FEI was 518 (+1), and CP was 483 (-5) dollars/ton [1] - The main contract of IPG fluctuated upward. The basis was - 14 (+55), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 80 (-33). The cheapest delivery product was civil LPG in East China at 4279. The price in Shandong was 4300 (-60), in East China 4279 (+0), and in South China 4400 (-5). The price of ether - post carbon four in Shandong was 4420 (-50). The number of warehouse receipts was 4194 (+1778) [1] - The outer - market price increased, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. The FEI month spread was - 5 (-1.75) dollars, and the CP month spread was - 14.4 (-6.4) dollars. The November CP official price dropped to 475/460 (-20/-15). The domestic and foreign PG - CP was 133 (-18); PG - FEI was 97 (-18.6). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. FEI - CP was 35.75 (+0.75). The arrival cost of propane in East China was 85 (+6) [1] Device Profits and Operating Rates - PDH profit decreased slightly, the profit of alkylation units declined significantly, and the production gross profit of MTBE changed little [1] - The PDH operating rate was 73.85% (+2.6 pct). Next week, Binhuahua will undergo maintenance, but Lihuayi Weiyuan will increase production, and Donghua Zhangjiagang will restart [1] Inventory and Demand - Domestic production decreased, imports increased, and port inventory rebounded, but there is an expected increase in chemical demand [1]