Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic trading atmosphere is expected to improve, and prices may rise slightly. However, the downward trend of CP official prices may limit the upward momentum of prices, despite the positive impact of the settlement of Sino - US tariffs on FEI and MB [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - **Daily price changes**: In the civil gas market, prices in East China were 4341 (+26), in Shandong 4360 (+0), and in South China 4390 (+0). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4610 (-90). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 110 (+38), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 76 (-4). FEI was 494 (-10) and CP was 466 (-12) dollars per ton [1] - **IPG contract situation**: The main IPG contract fluctuated upward. The basis was - 14 (+55), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 80 (-33). The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4279. Shandong's price was 4300 (-60), East China's was 4279 (+0), South China's was 4400 (-5), and Shandong's ether - post - carbon four was 4420 (-50). The number of warehouse receipts was 4194 (+1778) [1] External Market and Spread - **External market price changes**: External market prices rose, and the oil - gas ratio declined. The FEI month spread was - 5 (-1.75) dollars, and the CP month spread was - 14.4 (-6.4) dollars. The November CP official price dropped to 475/460 (-20/-15). The domestic and foreign PG - CP spread was 133 (-18.6), and the US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. The FEI - CP spread was 35.75 (+0.75). The arrival discount of propane in East China was 85 (+6). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 129 (+13), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 68 (+12). The latest FEI - MOPI was - 66.7 (-15.8) [1] Profit and Demand - **Profit situation**: PDH profit decreased slightly, the profit of alkylation units declined significantly, and the production gross profit of MTBE changed little [1] - **Supply, demand and inventory**: Domestic production decreased, imports increased, and port inventories rebounded. However, there was an expected increase in chemical demand. The PDH operating rate was 73.85% (+2.6 pct). Next week, Binhua will undergo maintenance, but Lihuayi Weiyuan will increase production, and Donghua Zhangjiagang will restart [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The IPG main contract fluctuated upward. The domestic trading atmosphere is expected to improve, and prices may rise slightly, but the upward momentum may be limited due to the decline in CP official prices despite the positive impact of the China - US tariff agreement on FEI and MB [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price Data - **Daily Changes in Civil Gas and Ether - After Carbon Four**: On Tuesday, for civil gas, the price in East China was 4315 (+18), in Shandong 4360 (+0), and in South China 4390 (-5). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4700 (+20). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 76 (+90), and the 12 - 01 monthly spread was 96 (+18). FEI was 503 (-15) and CP was 471 (-11) dollars/ton [1] - **IPG Main Contract Data**: The IPG main contract fluctuated upward. The basis was - 14 (+55), and the 12 - 01 monthly spread was 80 (-33). The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4279. Shandong was 4300 (-60), East China 4279 (+0), South China 4400 (-5), and Shandong ether - after carbon four was 4420 (-50). The number of warehouse receipts was 4194 hands (+1778) [1] - **External Market and Related Price Data**: External market prices rose, and the oil - gas ratio declined. The FEI monthly spread was - 5 dollars (-1.75), and the CP monthly spread was - 14.4 dollars (-6.4). The November CP official price dropped to 475/460 (-20/-15). The domestic and foreign PG - CP was 133 (-18.6). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. FEI - CP was 35.75 (+0.75). The East China propane arrival discount was 85 (+6). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 129 (+13), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 68 (+12). FEI - MOPI was - 66.7 (-15.8) [1] Industry Conditions - **Profit and Inventory**: PDH profit decreased slightly, the profit of alkylation units declined significantly, and the production gross profit of MTBE changed little. Domestic production decreased, imports increased, and port inventories rebounded, but there is an expected increase in chemical demand [1] - **Operating Rate and Equipment Status**: The PDH operating rate was 73.85% (+2.6 pct). Next week, Binhu will undergo maintenance, while Lihuayi Weiyuan will increase production and Donghua Zhangjiagang will restart [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic trading atmosphere is expected to improve, and prices may rise slightly. However, the decline in CP official prices may limit the upward momentum of prices, despite the positive impact of the Sino - US tariff agreement on FEI and MB [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price Changes - On Monday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4297 (+18), in Shandong 4360 (+60), and in South China 4395 (-5). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4680 (+260). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 4 (+57), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 100 (+24). FEI was 518 (+1), and CP was 483 (-5) dollars/ton [1] - The main contract of IPG fluctuated upward. The basis was - 14 (+55), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 80 (-33). The cheapest delivery product was civil LPG in East China at 4279. The price in Shandong was 4300 (-60), in East China 4279 (+0), and in South China 4400 (-5). The price of ether - post carbon four in Shandong was 4420 (-50). The number of warehouse receipts was 4194 (+1778) [1] - The outer - market price increased, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. The FEI month spread was - 5 (-1.75) dollars, and the CP month spread was - 14.4 (-6.4) dollars. The November CP official price dropped to 475/460 (-20/-15). The domestic and foreign PG - CP was 133 (-18); PG - FEI was 97 (-18.6). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. FEI - CP was 35.75 (+0.75). The arrival cost of propane in East China was 85 (+6) [1] Device Profits and Operating Rates - PDH profit decreased slightly, the profit of alkylation units declined significantly, and the production gross profit of MTBE changed little [1] - The PDH operating rate was 73.85% (+2.6 pct). Next week, Binhuahua will undergo maintenance, but Lihuayi Weiyuan will increase production, and Donghua Zhangjiagang will restart [1] Inventory and Demand - Domestic production decreased, imports increased, and port inventory rebounded, but there is an expected increase in chemical demand [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Low sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ (indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [3] Core Viewpoints - The oil market has been rapidly accumulating inventory since September, with a 2.8% inventory increase in the fourth quarter. Despite OPEC+ pausing production increases in the first quarter of next year, the market supply - demand surplus may still expand. Short - term oil prices will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after geopolitical risks are priced again [1] - The fuel oil market shows a structural differentiation. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be loose in the medium term, facing a callback pressure on high valuations, while the low - sulfur market has short - term support, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to widen [2] - The asphalt market has multiple fundamental negatives, with a decline in the main contract and a trend of negative year - on - year changes in shipments and an increase in social inventory [2] - The LPG contract continues to oscillate narrowly. The overall demand is expected to improve, with a slight decrease in refinery storage capacity ratio and an increase in port storage capacity ratio [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - The oil market has been rapidly accumulating inventory since September, with a 2.8% inventory increase in the fourth quarter, including a 5.9% increase in crude oil inventory and a 2.1% decrease in refined oil inventory. The inventory increase in upstream crude oil is concentrated in transit, and the surplus pressure will be more obvious in on - shore crude oil inventory [1] - The OPEC+ meeting on Sunday slightly exceeded expectations by pausing production increases in the first quarter of next year, but the market supply - demand surplus may still expand marginally in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The medium - term surplus pressure in the oil market persists, and short - term oil prices will oscillate [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market shows a structural differentiation. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be loose in the medium term due to factors such as full pricing of Russian supply reduction, high seasonal cracking spreads, end of peak power generation demand, and steady OPEC+ production increase, facing a callback pressure on high valuations [2] - The low - sulfur market has short - term support due to the accidental shutdown of part of the Kuwaiti Al - Zour refinery, which is expected to resume by early November. The restart of the Dangote refinery eases the regional supply pressure to some extent. The market also focuses on the progress of fuel oil quota conversion, which may affect the port supply structure [2] Asphalt - The BU futures market rose with crude oil in the morning but then declined due to multiple fundamental negatives, with the main contract closing down 0.58% [2] - In late October, some refineries in Shandong and Hebei switched to producing residual oil or shut down, resulting in a week - on - week decrease in production. Construction in the north is coming to an end, while there is still a rush - to - build demand in the south. The year - on - year change in the shipment volume of 54 asphalt sample enterprises has turned negative since late October, and this trend is likely to continue [2] - The decline in the overall commercial inventory has slowed down, and the social inventory has increased year - on - year for the first time this year at the end of October [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG contract continues to oscillate narrowly. The weekly LPG commercial volume has slightly decreased, while the arrival volume has increased significantly [3] - The improvement in chemical profits has promoted demand growth, and the significant cooling in many places has boosted the demand for combustion. The market expects overall demand improvement. The refinery storage capacity ratio has slightly decreased, while the port storage capacity ratio has increased [3]

Core Insights - The liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production in Shaanxi Province for the first half of 2025 reached 576,000 tons, marking a 13.1% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with a growth rate 9.6 percentage points higher than 2024 and 15.7 percentage points above the national average [1] - In June 2025, the LPG production in Shaanxi Province was 97,000 tons, reflecting a 10.7% increase year-on-year, with a growth rate 2.8 percentage points higher than 2024 and 15.2 percentage points above the national average [2] Summary by Category Production Data - In the first half of 2025, Shaanxi's LPG production accounted for 2.2% of the national total of 26.259 million tons [1] - The June 2025 LPG production in Shaanxi also represented 2.2% of the national total of 4.359 million tons [2] Growth Comparison - The growth rate of Shaanxi's LPG production in the first half of 2025 was significantly higher than the national average, indicating strong regional performance [1] - The June 2025 production growth in Shaanxi was also above the national average, showcasing consistent growth trends [2]

Group 1 - An explosion occurred at a liquefied petroleum gas filling station in Shiraz, Iran, on November 1 [1] - The incident resulted in two minor injuries, and firefighters quickly responded to control the fire [1]

Core Viewpoint - The LPG market is experiencing significant fluctuations due to its strong correlation with crude oil prices, seasonal variations, and recent tariff issues affecting price dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - LPG is a terminal product and chemical raw material used in producing polypropylene and gasoline blending products, with its price closely tied to crude oil [1] - The price ratio between LPG and crude oil has seen substantial volatility, reaching a near five-year high in April [1] - The U.S. is the largest source of LPG imports for China, accounting for approximately 50% of total imports, followed by countries in the Middle East [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand - China's LPG imports are diversifying, with a notable decrease in propane imports from the U.S. to the lowest level since 2021 [1] - Domestic LPG demand is primarily driven by chemical needs, particularly from propane dehydrogenation (PDH) processes, with potential benefits for alternative production methods if PDH feedstock is restricted [1] - Current supply pressures are indicated by the October CP (Saudi LPG contract price) opening lower than expected, suggesting a significant supply burden [3] Group 3: Cost Factors - The current weak trend in crude oil prices contrasts sharply with the performance of precious and base metals, influenced by factors such as the rise of new energy vehicles and ongoing trade tensions [2] - LNG prices are currently lower than LPG prices, with an expanding price gap accelerating LNG's market penetration [2] - Shipping costs for LPG are relatively low, with favorable conditions in key transit areas like the Panama Canal [2] Group 4: Inventory and Utilization - Port inventory levels are at mid-range historical levels, while refinery inventory rates are near multi-year lows, indicating a mixed supply situation [3] - The overall chemical industry is facing profitability challenges, with declining margins in PDH and related products, contributing to a bearish outlook for LPG prices [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [6] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [6] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [6] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ (Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [6] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ (Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - The international oil price continued to rebound, and the SC11 contract rose 2.33% during the day. The decline in US API crude oil inventories and the US crude oil purchase plan supported the market. In the medium - term, there is still pressure of loose supply and demand, but the downward momentum of oil prices may slow down this week. Uncertainties in international talks will bring new fluctuations [2]. - FU and LU followed the rise driven by the strong cost - end. High - sulfur fuel oil is currently supported but may face supply pressure in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's fundamentals are weak, but its cracking spread may be supported in the fourth quarter [3]. - The asphalt main contract rose nearly 3% driven by the rebound of crude oil. The market is in a tight - balance pattern, and the inventory is slightly decreasing [4]. - The LPG main contract rose about 1.7% led by the rebound of crude oil. The supply increased slightly this week, and the fundamentals improved marginally [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The international oil price continued to rebound, with the SC11 contract rising 2.33% during the day. The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 298,100 barrels last week, and the US 1 - million - barrel crude oil purchase plan supported the market. OPEC +'s production increase strategy and the decline in demand after the peak consumption season bring medium - term supply - demand pressure, but the downward momentum of oil prices may slow down this week. Uncertainties in international talks will bring new fluctuations [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - FU and LU followed the rise driven by the strong cost - end. High - sulfur fuel oil is currently supported by geopolitical factors, ship - fuel demand, and feedstock improvement, but supply may be loose in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's fundamentals are weak, with sufficient overseas supply. Its cracking spread may be supported in the fourth quarter [3]. Asphalt - The asphalt main contract rose nearly 3% driven by the rebound of crude oil. The national weekly operating rate decreased, and the refinery production plan in November decreased. Terminal demand was affected by weather, and the inventory decreased slightly. The market is in a tight - balance pattern [4]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG main contract rose about 1.7% led by the rebound of crude oil. The supply increased slightly this week. Chemical demand increased, while combustion demand was weak. The inventory at refineries and ports decreased, and the fundamentals improved marginally [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Fuel Oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor market operability, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: ☆☆☆, indicating the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor market operability, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, the global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated since September, with OPEC+ production increase and post-peak demand decline causing supply-demand pressure. However, considering the low oil price and net long positions, the downward momentum may slow this week [1]. - For fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil, the absolute price of fuel oil follows the cost side with a weakening trend. High-sulfur fuel oil has a "strong current, weak expectation" pattern, and its supply-demand will turn loose. Low-sulfur fuel oil supply remains loose [2]. - For asphalt, the contract prices rose slightly today, with开工率 decreasing, demand weaker than expected, and the market in a tight balance with price support at the bottom [3]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, the main contract oscillates narrowly, supply increases slightly, chemical demand grows while combustion demand is flat, and inventories decline [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since September, the global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated, especially the in-transit crude oil inventory. In the fourth quarter, global oil inventory increased by 1.5% (crude oil inventory by 3.3% and refined oil inventory decreased by 1.3%) [1]. - OPEC+'s continuous production increase and post-peak demand decline bring supply-demand pressure, and geopolitical factors also weigh on the market [1]. - Considering the low oil price and net long positions, the downward momentum of oil prices may slow this week, and attention should be paid to the China-US and Russia-US talks [1]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil follows the cost side with a weakening trend [2]. - High-sulfur fuel oil has a "strong current, weak expectation" pattern, and its supply-demand will turn loose as geopolitical tensions ease and other factors change [2]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil supply remains loose, and the impact of the restart of the RFCG device at Dangote Refinery needs further observation [2]. Asphalt - Today, asphalt contracts rose slightly, with near-month contracts relatively stronger [3]. - The weekly national asphalt production rate decreased, demand in October is weaker than expected, and the cumulative shipment volume in mid-October increased 1 percentage point less year-on-year compared to the end of September [3]. - Social inventory is steadily decreasing, factory inventory is decreasing weakly, and the overall commercial inventory decreased slightly. The market remains in a tight balance with price support at the bottom [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The main LPG contract oscillates narrowly, with far-month contracts under pressure [3]. - This week, supply increased slightly, chemical demand grew while combustion demand was flat, and both refinery and port inventories decreased [3]. - Today, the spot price in Shandong rose while the futures price oscillated, and the basis changed from flat to a slight premium [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US delays the G7 plan to expand the use of frozen Russian assets, indicating an intention to reduce tensions before Trump meets Putin, leading to a rise in market risk appetite [17]. - Affected by news such as Sino - US negotiations, on October 20, the A - share market rose with shrinking volume. Currently, market liquidity is rapidly contracting, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Future trends depend on domestic and foreign policy changes [2]. - During the Fourth Plenary Session, there are relatively many policies. It is advisable to be cautious in the short - term. If the market risk preference fails to strengthen, the bond market will turn stronger [25]. - The cost of imported soybeans supports the soybean meal price, but the current supply - demand situation is weak, and sufficient soybean supply is expected in the fourth quarter. The soybean meal futures price is likely to remain volatile [4]. - In September, economic data continued to show structural differentiation. The overall terminal demand was weak, with real estate and infrastructure demand remaining sluggish and manufacturing showing resilience. High pig iron production will suppress the subsequent inventory reduction speed, limiting the upward space for steel prices [5]. - The continuous inventory reduction during the peak season supports the lithium carbonate price, but further upward momentum may depend on unexpected supply - side disruptions [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US government continues to be shut down. The gold price hit a new high, and overseas gold and silver ETF holdings increased, while the domestic market was weak. Gold is expected to fluctuate at a high level this week, and attention should be paid to the callback risk [13]. - Investment advice: The gold price will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the callback risk caused by long - position profit - taking [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and Australia signed a key minerals agreement, and the US Senate will "pause" the new round of sanctions against Russia. The US delays the G7 plan to expand the use of frozen Russian assets, indicating an intention to reduce tensions before Trump meets Putin, and market risk preference has recovered [15][16][17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to decline in the short - term [18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year - on - year. Affected by news such as Sino - US negotiations, on October 20, the A - share market rose with shrinking volume. Currently, market liquidity is rapidly contracting, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment [2][19]. - Investment advice: Allocate various stock indices evenly [21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The LPR quotation in October remained stable. China's economic data in September showed differentiation. The bond market fluctuated and declined today due to Trump's softened stance towards China, but market risk preference has not been strongly activated [22][23][24]. - Investment advice: Be cautious in short - term trading this week. If market risk preference fails to strengthen, look for opportunities to build long - term long positions at low prices [25]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On October 20, the steam coal price in the northern port market was strong. The downstream demand increased last week, and the coal price rose. After the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway maintenance ends, the supply of port spot will increase, and the coal price increase is expected to narrow this week [26]. - Investment advice: The coal price will remain strong in the short - term [26]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Fenix Resources' iron ore production in the third quarter increased significantly. The iron ore price continued to be weak and volatile. The terminal orders weakened, the steel mill inventory pressure increased, and the steel mill profit was compressed. It is expected that the pig iron production will decline in November [27]. - Investment advice: The potential for production cuts is approaching. The iron ore price will remain weak in the short - term, but the downward valuation space is limited [27]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of October 17, the inspection volume of US cotton was slow. In September, the export unit price of cotton products rebounded slightly month - on - month. China imported 100,000 tons of cotton and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn in September [28][29][30]. - Investment advice: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price has been resistant to decline recently. However, as the new cotton is listed, the hedging pressure will limit the upward space, and the downstream orders are insufficient. Attention should be paid to the new cotton listing, downstream orders, and Sino - US relations [31][32]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - As of October 17, the national port soybean inventory decreased, the soybean inventory of major oil mills increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unexecuted contracts decreased. In September, China imported 0 tons of soybeans from the US, and the Brazilian soybean planting rate reached 24% [34][35][36]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the weather in the Brazilian production area and Sino - US relations. The soybean meal futures price is likely to remain volatile [36]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From October 1 to 20, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased by 3.4% month - on - month. As of October 17, the domestic palm oil inventory increased slightly [37][38]. - Investment advice: The market lacks driving forces in the short - term and is expected to remain volatile. In the long - term, pay attention to the long - position opportunities of palm oil [39][40]. 2.6 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - From January to September, China's infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year. In the first three quarters, China's steel exports showed different trends, and the real estate investment continued to decline. The overall terminal demand was weak, and the high pig iron production limited the upward space for steel prices [41][42][44]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices in the short - term [46]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - In Xinjiang, jujubes in some areas are in the drying stage. The futures price of the main contract CJ601 fluctuated and closed down today. The price of jujubes in the distribution areas is stable, and merchants purchase goods as needed [47][48]. - Investment advice: Wait and see before the market logic becomes clear. Pay attention to the price game in the production area and downstream consumption [48]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - On October 20, the theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in different regions showed differentiation. In the future, the inventory pressure and production reduction expectations of starch may be mainly concentrated in the Northeast [49]. - Investment advice: The price difference between starch and corn futures is expected to recover after entering the delivery month. The price difference of 01 and 03 contracts is at a low level and is not expected to shrink further [49]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The domestic corn price is rising. Snowy weather and farmers' reluctance to sell have led to a decrease in downstream arrivals. The spot price is expected to decline, while the futures price may enter a volatile bottom - grinding period [50]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short - term. Pay attention to the implementation of wheat auction rumors [50]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - In September, China's polysilicon export volume decreased by 28.17% month - on - month. The spot price of polysilicon is expected to remain stable. The terminal demand has weakened marginally since late October, and the silicon wafer price is under pressure [51][52]. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the spot price will not decline in October. Consider long - position opportunities when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. Pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of PS2511 - PS2512 at around - 2000 yuan/ton [53]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In September, China's industrial silicon export volume increased by 7.73% year - on - year. Some silicon plants in the South are expected to reduce production in late October. The inventory is expected to be difficult to reduce in November and will be reduced by 15,000 tons in December [54][55]. - Investment advice: It is more cost - effective to go long on industrial silicon at low prices [55]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On October 17, the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $41.85/ton. In September, the import of lead concentrates increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. The export of lead - acid batteries decreased, and the import increased [55][56]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading. Pay attention to the medium - term positive spread opportunity for cross - market trading [56]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Vedanta's zinc concentrate production in the third quarter increased by 6%. In September, the export volume of galvanized sheets increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volume of zinc concentrates increased [57][58][60]. - Investment advice: Wait and see for single - side trading. Pay attention to the medium - term positive spread opportunity. Maintain a positive spread trading strategy for cross - market trading and take profits in batches at low prices [61]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In September, China's unforged nickel import volume increased significantly, especially from Russia. The short - term macro situation is still volatile. The global visible inventory has increased significantly, and the price is fluctuating above the cash cost. The nickel ore price is expected to rise in the fourth quarter [62]. - Investment advice: Allocation portfolios can consider long - position opportunities at low prices. Speculative portfolios can consider selling near - the - money put options and buying deep - out - of - the - money call options [63]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - In September, China's lithium ore import volume increased by 14.7% month - on - month. The first batch of lithium concentrate from the Bougouni lithium project was shipped. The inventory has been decreasing, which supports the price, but further upward momentum depends on supply - side disruptions [64][66]. - Investment advice: Use range - bound trading in the short - term. Consider short - position opportunities after the demand peaks this year. Pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of LC2511 - LC2601 and the positive spread opportunity of LC2601 against more distant contracts [67]. 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Peru's Las Bambas copper mine is being affected by illegal mining. In September, China's scrap copper import volume increased by 14.84% year - on - year [68][69]. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short - term. Consider long - position opportunities at low prices for single - side trading. Wait and see for spread trading [70]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Guangzhou Petrochemical's partial device maintenance has reduced the liquefied gas production. The East China liquefied gas price has declined due to factors such as fundamental imbalance and falling paper - futures prices [71][72]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [73]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - A Russian refinery was affected by a drone attack. The oil price is weak and volatile. Market risk preference supports the oil price, but concerns about supply surplus continue to put pressure on it [74]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain weak and volatile in the short - term [75]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price has been slightly stronger. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, and the spot trading is light. The PVC fundamentals remain weak, and the inventory is high [76][77][78]. - Investment advice: The PVC price is expected to remain weak and volatile in the short - term, and the downward space is limited [78]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - As of October 20, the styrene inventory in the East China main port increased. The styrene price declined, and the inventory is a key issue. The production profit has decreased, and the cost support is not obvious [79]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the negative feedback of pure benzene downstream products. The styrene industry needs a low - profit level to slow down the inventory accumulation in the main port [80]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - As of October 20, the asphalt factory and social inventories decreased. The BU futures price was weak last week, and the spot price continued to decline. The demand recovery is limited, and the weak international oil price may affect the asphalt price [81][82]. - Investment advice: The asphalt price will be volatile in the short - term [83]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of October 20, the domestic soda ash factory inventory increased slightly. The soda ash futures price rose and then fell, affected by the bearish sentiment in the glass market. The downstream demand is stable, and the inventory in the delivery warehouse is high [84]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling strategy at high prices for soda ash in the medium - term, and pay attention to the new capacity release [84]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On October 20, the float glass price in the Hubei market declined. The glass futures price continued to fall due to the failure of supply - reduction expectations and the cooling of macro - positive expectations [85]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short - term as the market is bearish, but the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the risk of short - selling is high [85].