商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 9 日 LPG：需求疲软，短期承压 | | | LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2507 | 4,098 | 0.22% | 4,092 | -0.15% | | 期货 | PG2508 | 3,998 | 0.28% | 3,998 | 0.00% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2507 | 61,036 | -1838 | 57,393 | -4453 | | | PG2508 | 8,239 | 952 | 39,054 | 395 | | 价差 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 广州国产气对07合约价差 | 452 | | 461 | | | | 广州进口气对07合约价差 | 552 | | 561 | | | 产业链重要 价格数据 | PDH开工率 | 本周 63.0% | | 上周 63.3% | | | | MTBE开工率 | 54.7% ...

2 国泰君安期货·能源化工 液化石油气周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 期货从业资格号：F03128004 日期：2025年6月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 供应 03 需求 04 期货纸货 月差结构 现货基差 美国 中东 国内 化工需求 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 综述 1 综述 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 资料来源：隆众资讯，Argus，国泰君安期货研究 ◆ 我们的观点：需求疲软，短期承压 ◆ 我们的逻辑：5月31日-6月6日，宏观预期转好，盘面窄幅整理，现货市场因供需宽松承压。国际液化气市场价格成交重 心下移，截至6月6日，AFEI丙烷指数小幅波动，MA5下跌0.85%至540.30美元/吨；美国整体丙烷库存充足，MB价格 MA5下跌2.46%至373.75美元/吨；华 ...

Core Insights - In the first three months of 2025, the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production in Hainan Province reached 387,000 tons, representing a 0.8% decrease compared to the same period in 2024, with a growth rate that is 44.6 percentage points lower than the previous year, but 0.7 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - In March 2025 alone, Hainan's LPG production was 121,000 tons, down 2.6% year-on-year, with a growth rate 30.6 percentage points lower than March 2024, yet 0.2 percentage points higher than the national average [2] Summary by Category Production Data - Hainan's LPG production for the first quarter of 2025 accounted for 2.9% of the national total of 13.57 million tons [1] - The March 2025 LPG production in Hainan represented 2.7% of the national total of 4.515 million tons [2] Year-on-Year Comparison - The first quarter production decline of 0.8% in Hainan is significant compared to the previous year's growth rate [1] - The March production decline of 2.6% also indicates a downward trend compared to the same month in 2024 [2] Growth Rate Analysis - The growth rate for Hainan's LPG production in the first quarter is notably lower than the previous year, indicating potential challenges in the industry [1] - The March growth rate comparison shows a similar trend, with a significant drop compared to the previous year, although it remains slightly above the national average [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly indicated, but the operation rating implies an unclear short - term trend [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but with limited operability on the market [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly indicated in terms of a star rating, but implied to follow the crude oil trend [1][3] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term market for crude oil is oscillating strongly, but there may be short - selling opportunities after the peak - season expectations and geopolitical fluctuations are fully priced. The fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil markets show different trends, with high - sulfur fuel oil facing weak demand and low - sulfur fuel oil following the crude oil trend. The asphalt market has a short - term callback pressure on the cracking spread but the upward trend is not reversed. The LPG market has stabilized with limited downward space and remains in low - level oscillation [2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued to rise, with the SC07 contract rising 0.69% during the day. The crude oil month - spread and spot premium are stronger than the single - side price, indicating tight physical supply as the peak season approaches. Since the second quarter, global oil inventory accumulation has exceeded that of the first quarter. Last week, the US API crude oil inventory unexpectedly decreased by 3.3 million barrels. The market is short - term oscillating strongly, but the rapid production increase by OPEC+ may make the supply - demand tightness unsustainable [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The futures of the fuel oil system showed a differentiated trend today, with LU performing relatively strongly. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in ship bunkering and deep - processing is still low. The summer power - generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa has some support, but the expected lower temperature in Saudi Arabia and Egypt this summer and the high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread may lead to more crude oil used for power generation. In May, the arrival volume of Russian fuel oil in Asia increased by 42% to 2.45 million tons. The high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread and EFS are expected to weaken together. The low - sulfur fuel oil bunkering volume in Fujairah decreased significantly last week, and the overseas ship - fuel demand peak season is approaching the end. With low supply in China, the port bonded inventory has decreased significantly, and low - sulfur fuel oil mainly follows the crude oil trend [3] Asphalt - Asphalt performed relatively weakly today, and the BU cracking spread continued a slight downward trend. The June diluted asphalt premium is still at a high of - $6.5 per barrel, and refinery production depends on crude oil quotas. After the peak of major refinery overhauls, the refinery's operation is still restricted by poor comprehensive refining and export profits, and the supply increase lacks resilience. The seasonal demand improvement has been realized, but the real driving force is still awaited. The balance sheet estimates that the de - stocking trend will continue and the inventory level is low. The BU cracking spread faces short - term callback pressure, but the upward trend is not reversed [4] LPG - The June CP reduction is relatively small. Although the Middle East supply is still abundant, the recovery of domestic chemical demand and the rebound of crude oil have boosted the market sentiment, and the market decline has stabilized. The domestic arrival volume at the beginning of the month and the domestic - produced gas have both declined month - on - month, and the supply pressure has weakened, limiting the downward space. The spot - market surplus pressure has eased, and the futures market has stabilized with the rise of crude oil, but the improvement of chemical profit margins lacks momentum, and it remains in low - level oscillation [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The cost of LPG fluctuates widely, and the short - term support weakens. The LPG trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [1][6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - PG2507 had a yesterday's closing price of 3,992 with a daily decline of 3.11%. The trading volume was 79,663, an increase of 8244 from the previous day, and the open interest was 71,892, an increase of 339 from the previous day [1]. - PG2508 had a yesterday's closing price of 3,908 with a daily decline of 3.10%. The trading volume was 15,582, an increase of 4357 from the previous day, and the open interest was 36,288, an increase of 2865 from the previous day [1]. Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 07 contract was 708, compared with 580 the previous day. The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 07 contract was 758, compared with 660 the previous day [1]. Key Price Data in the Industry Chain - The PDH operating rate this week was 63.3%, up from 61.2% last week. The MTBE operating rate was 54.2%, down from 55.4% last week. The alkylation operating rate was 48.3%, up from 39.9% last week [1]. 2. Market Information Saudi CP Expectations - On May 29, 2025, the expected price of propane for July Saudi CP was 574 USD/ton, up 2 USD/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 544 USD/ton, down 3 USD/ton from the previous trading day. The expected price of propane for August Saudi CP was 555 USD/ton, and the expected price of butane was 525 USD/ton [7]. Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple domestic PDH devices have maintenance plans, including those of companies such as Puyang Yuandong Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., with some start - times dating back to 2023 and end - times mostly undetermined [7]. Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Many domestic refineries and plants have device maintenance plans, with varying normal production volumes, loss volumes, start - times, and end - times. For example, Zhenghua Petrochemical in Shandong has had a device under maintenance since May 14, 2024, with a normal production volume and loss volume of 400 [10].

Group 1 - The article highlights the significant shift in trade dynamics between the US and China, illustrated by American LPG carriers rerouting to Southeast Asia instead of China due to escalating tariff conflicts [1][3] - Despite a temporary agreement reached in mid-May to gradually dismantle tariffs, Chinese companies have already established new partnerships with suppliers from Canada and the Middle East, indicating a long-term shift away from US goods [3][12] - The retention of a 20% "fentanyl tariff" by the Trump administration has exacerbated distrust among American businesses, leading to concerns about the stability of future trade relations [7][11] Group 2 - The article discusses the implications of the trade agreement signed in Geneva in May 2025, which aims to eliminate 95% of tariffs on goods, but also notes the hidden challenges posed by the retained tariffs [8][9] - The article points out that American companies are facing significant losses due to reduced exports to China, with soybean exports dropping by 16.3% [16] - Chinese companies are actively restructuring their global supply chains, reducing reliance on US suppliers, as seen in the shift towards sourcing from countries like Russia, Brazil, and the Middle East [12][17] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the resilience of Chinese companies in the lithium battery sector, with exports to the US reaching a record high of $15.315 billion, despite US sanctions [19] - It highlights the challenges faced by American companies in finding alternatives to Chinese manufacturing, as many industries remain heavily dependent on China's production capabilities [22][24] - The article concludes with the notion that the ongoing trade war may lead to significant economic repercussions for the US, with potential losses in various sectors, including agriculture and semiconductors [24][28]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the LPG market are generally weak, with expected supply growth, increased chemical demand, and weak combustion demand [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Price and Market Conditions - **Day - to - day Changes**: On Monday, for civil gas, prices in Shandong increased by 10 to 4490, in East China increased by 2 to 4495, and remained stable in South China at 4820. For imported gas, prices in East China decreased by 24 to 4929, and in South China decreased by 20 to 4900. The price of ether - post carbon four remained stable at 4740. The lowest price was Shandong civil gas at 4490. The PG futures market was weak, with the basis of the 06 contract slightly weakening to 375, the 06 - 07 spread remaining unchanged at 53, and the 07 - 09 spread basically flat at 128. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window was closed [1]. - **Recent Trends**: Civil gas prices significantly declined, ether - post carbon four prices rebounded, and the cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4480. The PG futures market declined due to weak spot prices. The basis of the 06 contract was 385 (+139), the 06 - 07 spread was 54 (-27), and the 07 - 08 spread was 61 (-15). In the external market, FEI and MB declined, CP increased, and the oil - gas ratio fluctuated. The internal - external price difference significantly decreased, and FEI - MOPJ slightly declined. Freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East decreased [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Port inventory decreased as arrivals dropped significantly and exports were sluggish. Factory inventory was basically flat. Commodity volume slightly increased and is expected to continue rising. Arrivals are also expected to increase [1]. - **Demand**: - PDH operating rate rebounded to 61.15% (+3.17pct), production margin declined, and the operating rate is expected to continue rising next week. - The operating rate and commodity volume of alkylation remained flat, profitability significantly declined to - 40.5 (-308), and the operating rate is expected to slightly increase next week. - MTBE prices generally dropped by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, production was basically flat, and the profits of gas - fractionation etherification and isomerization etherification declined. MTBE supply is expected to fluctuate slightly, gasoline demand is unlikely to improve, and prices may not change much. - As temperatures rise, combustion demand is expected to decline [1].

| 11/12 国技期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月26日 | | 原油 | 女女女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | ななな | F3063857 Z0016599 | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 上周国际油价总体震荡，布伦特07合约周度小幅下跌0.46%，SC07合约跌0.75%。上周五特朗普威,励6月1日起对欧盟 征收50%关税,此举将再次引发欧盟油品需求承压预期,同时欧洲对美出口汽油若未得豁免将在北美进入驾驶旺季 后拉动美国汽油裂解。关于6月1日OPEC+8国会议延续7月41.1万桶/天快速增产的担忧同样令市场承压，但周五美伊 第五轮核谈未达成协议,特朗普亦表示或因俄乌军事冲突持续而对俄罗斯加大制裁。制裁油供应风险仍对 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Liquefied Petroleum Gas Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: May 25, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The futures market is oversold, and short - term support is strengthening [5] - The expectation of OPEC+ production increase from May 17 to May 23 pressured oil prices, weakening the cost side of PG, and the overall market was weak [5] - The overall demand support is insufficient, and the price is further pressured downwards. It is recommended to closely monitor the subsequent PDH device and logistics dynamics [5] Summary by Directory 1. Overview - From May 17 - 23, OPEC+ production increase expectation suppressed oil prices, weakening the PG cost side. As of May 23, the AFEI propane index MA5 dropped 2.13% to $541.05/ton; the US Gulf MB price MA5 dropped 2.26% to $388.47/ton; the CIF price of South China propane refrigerated cargo MA5 was $626/ton, down $5.4/ton or 0.86% from the previous average [5] - In terms of supply, domestic LPG production increased 1.09% month - on - month to 509,600 tons, mainly due to a 2.7% increase in civil gas production; propane import arrivals decreased 37.42% month - on - month to 375,800 tons; port inventory decreased 3.83% month - on - month to 3,094,300 tons (East China 1,443,300 tons / - 6.96%, South China 614,000 tons / + 4.6%) [5] - In terms of demand, the domestic propane dehydrogenation unit operating rate this week was 61.15%, up 3.17 percentage points month - on - month. Next week, the PDH units of Qingdao Jinneng Phase II and Ningbo Formosa Plastics are expected to resume operation, so the domestic PDH operating rate is expected to continue to rise [5] 2. Price & Spread - The report presents multiple price and spread charts, including LPG and propane futures and spot prices, term spreads, and regional basis prices, as well as historical data on regional quotes, premiums, and freight rates [8][11][13] 3. Supply 3.1 US Exports - Total exports decreased, exports to China increased slightly, and exports to Japan and South Korea decreased significantly [26] 3.2 Middle East Exports - Overall exports decreased with regional differentiation [32] 3.3 Imports in China, India, Japan, and South Korea - Imports in China and India increased, while those in Japan and South Korea decreased slightly [40] 3.4 Domestic LPG Production - Total production was 509,600 tons (+ 1.09%), and civil gas production was 207,000 tons (+ 2.7%) [45] 3.5 Domestic Propane Supply - This week, China's propane supply was 411,300 tons, a 35.48% month - on - month decrease. Domestic refinery commodity volume was 35,500 tons, a 4.05% decrease from last week. International ship arrivals were 375,800 tons, mainly in South China [49] 3.6 Domestic Inventory - Civil gas in East China and ports in South China saw inventory accumulation, while civil gas in South China and ports in East China saw inventory reduction. Propane in Shandong had a slight inventory increase [50] 4. Demand - The PDH operating rate was 61.15% (+ 3.17), and the MTBE operating rate was 55.35% (- 0.74) [53]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "LPG: Crude Oil Fluctuates Widely, Domestic Support Weakens" and is dated May 22, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: LPG Futures Data - PG2506 closed at 4,236 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.26%, and at 4,210 in the night session with a decline of -0.61%. PG2507 closed at 4,182 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.63%, and at 4,151 in the night session with a decline of -0.74% [3] - PG2506 had a trading volume of 40,710 yesterday, a decrease of 500 from the previous day, and an open interest of 31,963, a decrease of 7065. PG2507 had a trading volume of 34,136, an increase of 2888, and an open interest of 61,795, an increase of 2354 [3] - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 06 contract was 614 yesterday, compared with 675 the previous day. The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 06 contract was 744 yesterday, compared with 775 the previous day [3] Group 3: Industry Chain Important Price Data - The PDH operating rate this week was 58.0%, down from 59.6% last week. The MTBE operating rate was 56.1%, down from 61.4% last week. The alkylation operating rate remained unchanged at 41.0% [3] Group 4: LPG Trend Intensity - The LPG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance [9] Group 5: Market Information - PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple companies' PDH devices are under maintenance or have scheduled maintenance, including Puyang Yuandong Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. Some maintenance start times date back to 2023, and many end times are still undetermined [10] Group 6: Market Information - Saudi CP Expectations - On May 20, 2025, the expected Saudi CP for propane in June was 585 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day; the expected butane price was 565 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton. The expected Saudi CP for propane in July was 559 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton; the expected butane price was 539 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton [11] Group 7: Market Information - Refinery Maintenance Plans - Many refineries across the country are undergoing or have planned maintenance, including Zhenghua Petrochemical, Panjin Haoye, etc., with varying normal production volumes, loss volumes, start times, and end times [12]