Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recently, the overall supply of coal and coke has increased month-on-month, the downstream replenishment rhythm is average, the spot market of coal and coke has a weak rebound, and individual coal types have turned down. The futures market lacks upward drivers, so it is necessary to operate cautiously [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Performance - This week, ferrous metals generally declined, and the prices of coal and coke futures led the decline. The night session yesterday continued the weak trend; the spot market was stable after rising, and the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal turned down this week, with a decline of 45 yuan/ton [2] Production Data - In December 2025, the coke output was 42.74 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.04%; the annual cumulative output was 502.222 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.34%, and the output hit a new historical high [2] Supply Side - The overall supply of coal is relatively strong. After the new year, coal mines have gradually resumed production. Last week, the output of coking raw coal and clean coal increased to 1.978 million tons and 768,000 tons respectively (the statistical sample increased). The raw coal at the mine end continued to increase in inventory, and the clean coal inventory was further depleted. On the import side, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week was 1.958 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 312,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 488,000 tons, and the port inventory remained at a relatively high level [2] Demand Side - The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, rising to about 40%; the blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly last week, mainly due to maintenance. The daily average pig iron output was 2.2801 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 14,900 tons and a year-on-year increase of 35,300 tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It points out the supply - demand situations, price trends, and investment strategies for each sector. For instance, in the financial derivatives sector, A - share markets are expected to be volatile, and investors are advised to control risks; in the commodity futures sector, different commodities face different supply - demand pressures and price trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed accordingly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Alumina**: The market is in a surplus situation with supply increasing and demand weakening. The price lacks upward momentum and is expected to fluctuate between 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Seasonal inventory accumulation is expected, and the price in January is under pressure. Strategies such as EG5 - 9 anti - arbitrage are recommended [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is strong before the Spring Festival, but the futures price has over - anticipated the increase. After the festival, the market is expected to be loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150 [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Driven by export growth, it attempts to break through resistance levels. Domestically, it may try to break through 8750 yuan and may briefly reach 9000 yuan [5]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts boost safe - haven demand, and the price is expected to be strong in the long - term. Hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average [6]. 3.2 Financial Futures 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: A - share major indices declined, and the four major stock index futures contracts also fell. The market is divided, and small and medium - sized indices corrected [7][8]. - **News**: The government will implement more active fiscal and monetary policies to promote economic growth and price recovery [8]. - **Funding**: Trading volume increased slightly, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal. - **Operation Suggestion**: Control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [9]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures rose, and bond yields generally declined [10][11]. - **Funding**: The central bank had a net capital withdrawal, and the inter - bank market liquidity was generally stable [11]. - **Policy**: The fiscal policy in 2026 will be more active to support economic stability [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market may fluctuate in the short - term. Adopt range - bound operations and pay attention to basis - widening strategies [12]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Geopolitical and trade conflicts led to the selling of US and Japanese bonds, a decline in the US dollar and US stocks, and the precious metals market remained strong [13][14][15]. - **Outlook**: Gold is expected to be strong in the long - term due to geopolitical and trade risks. Silver is expected to have a rising price center, and platinum and palladium will follow gold with narrowed fluctuations [15][16]. 3.4 Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index**: The SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index declined [17]. - **Fundamentals**: Container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [17]. - **Logic**: The futures price is under pressure from the downward trend of spot prices [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Expect short - term fluctuations [17]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - **Spot**: The spot discount widened, and the inventory continued to accumulate [18][21]. - **Macro**: The US is promoting negotiations on key minerals, which affects the tariff expectations for copper [19][22]. - **Supply**: The copper concentrate TC decreased, and the electrolytic copper production showed different trends in December and is expected to decline slightly in January [19]. - **Demand**: The downstream copper processing industry's operating rate was low, and the terminal demand was weak [20]. - **Logic**: The copper price may return to fundamental pricing, and attention should be paid to the CL premium and LME inventory changes [22]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe, and enter long positions after adjustment. Pay attention to the support at 97500 - 98500 [23]. 3.5.2 Alumina - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the inventory increased weekly by 7.9 tons [23][24]. - **Supply**: The production may decrease slightly in January due to some enterprises' losses [24]. - **Logic**: The market is in surplus, and the price lacks upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate between 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [25]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short at high prices within the range of 2600 - 2900 [25]. 3.5.3 Aluminum - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the transaction was cold [25]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to increase slightly, and the aluminum - water ratio may continue to decline [26]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing industry's operating rate was low, and the demand was weak [26]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely between 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton in the short - term [28]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Do not chase high prices. Enter long positions after a pullback within the range of 23000 - 25000 [29]. 3.5.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the market maintained rigid demand [29]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline slightly in January due to raw material shortages [29][30]. - **Demand**: The demand is in a mild recovery, but the terminal demand transmission is not smooth [30]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton in the short - term [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Long AD03 and short AL03 for arbitrage within the range of 22000 - 24000 [31]. 3.5.5 Zinc - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the transaction was general [32]. - **Supply**: The zinc ore supply is tight, and the refined zinc production decreased in December [33]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing industry's operating rate declined, and the demand was weak [34]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes [35][36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to the support at 23800, and hold long positions in the long - term. Hold cross - market anti - arbitrage [36]. 3.5.6 Tin - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the transaction was general [36]. - **Supply**: The tin ore and tin ingot import and export showed different trends in December [37]. - **Demand**: The downstream tin - soldering industry's operating rate declined, and the terminal demand was divided [38]. - **Logic**: The price is affected by market sentiment and is expected to be volatile. Consider low - buying after the sentiment stabilizes [39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe [39]. 3.5.7 Nickel - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the transaction was weak [39]. - **Supply**: The refined nickel production increased, and the market supply was sufficient [40]. - **Demand**: The demand in different sectors showed different trends, and the stainless - steel demand was general [40]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely between 138000 - 148000 [42]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range - bound operations [42]. 3.5.8 Stainless Steel - **Spot**: The spot price was stable, and the basis declined [43]. - **Raw Materials**: The prices of nickel ore and ferronickel increased, and the price of ferrochrome was firm [43]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to increase in January, and the supply is relatively loose [44]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 13800 - 14600, and attention should be paid to the ore news and downstream inventory [45]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Operate within the range of 13800 - 14600 [46]. 3.5.9 Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the market sentiment was boosted [46][47]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January due to pre - holiday maintenance [47]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to be optimistic, but the 1 - month demand may decline [48]. - **Logic**: The futures price increased sharply due to supply - side speculation. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [49]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe in the short - term, and enter long positions at low prices in the medium - term [50]. 3.5.10 Polysilicon - **Spot Price**: The spot price increased slightly [50]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January and the first quarter of 2026 [50]. - **Demand**: The demand may be improved by export demand, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased [51]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be supported at 48000 yuan/ton. Wait and observe and consider hedging [52]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe at high - level fluctuations [52]. 3.5.11 Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price**: The spot price was stable [53]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January and February [53]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to decline in January, and attention should be paid to the polysilicon production [53]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the demand changes [55]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe at low - level fluctuations and pay attention to the production cut [55]. 3.6 Ferrous Metals 3.6.1 Steel - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the basis of rebar strengthened [56]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost decreased, and the profit increased. The profit order is billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar [56]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline seasonally [56][57]. - **Demand**: The demand declined seasonally, and the post - holiday demand elasticity is limited [57]. - **Logic**: The steel price may decline due to cost reduction. The rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges [57]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Exit long positions on the steel - ore ratio at high prices and hold long positions on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread [57]. 3.6.2 Iron Ore - **Spot**: The spot price declined [58]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment decreased, and the port inventory increased [58][59]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand was weak, and the iron - making production declined [58]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the pre - holiday restocking [59]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range - bound operations within the range of 770 - 830 [60]. 3.6.3 Coking Coal - **Spot**: The Shanxi coal price increased more than it decreased, and the Mongolian coal price declined [61][63]. - **Supply**: The coal mine production increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased slightly [63]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand for replenishment increased, and the coking plant's profit declined [63]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150 [63]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - term weakness and operate within the range of 1000 - 1150 [63]. 3.6.4 Coke - **Spot**: The mainstream coke enterprises started to raise prices, and the port price declined [64][65]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the coking plant's profit was under pressure [64][65]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand increased, and the iron - making production increased [65]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1600 - 1750 [65]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - term weakness and operate within the range of 1600 - 1750 [65]. 3.6.5 Ferrosilicon - **Spot**: The spot price was stable [66]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost was stable, and the profit was negative [66]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the output was at a low level [66][67]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel industry and non - steel industries declined [67]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5300 - 5800, and attention should be paid to macro and policy factors [67]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe and pay attention to the price range of 5300 - 5800 [67]. 3.6.6 Manganese Silicon - **Spot**: The spot price declined slightly [69]. - **Cost**: The cost was relatively high, and the profit was negative [69]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the output was at a low level [70][71]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel industry declined, and the inventory was high [71]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5600 - 6000, and attention should be paid to macro and policy factors [71]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe and pay attention to the price range of 5600 - 6000 [71]. 3.7 Agricultural Products 3.7.1 Meal - **Spot Market**: The soybean meal price was stable, and the rapeseed meal price increased [72]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazilian soybean production and export are affected by weather and other factors [73]. - **Outlook**: The domestic soybean and soybean meal supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate around 2700 [74]. 3.7.2 Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price declined slightly [75]. - **Market Data**: The breeding profit improved, and the slaughter weight increased [75]. - **Outlook**: The market is in a game between supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [76]. 3.7.3 Corn - **Spot Price**: The price was stable in most areas [77]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain inventory in Guangzhou Port increased [78]. - **Outlook**: The price is supported by supply shortage and pre - holiday demand but limited by policy supply. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [79]. 3.7.4 Sugar - **Analysis**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is in the pre - holiday stocking period. The price is expected to be weak [80]. - **Fundamentals**: The Indian sugar production increased, and the Brazilian sugar production decreased [80]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe in the short - term [80]. 3.7.5 Cotton - **Analysis**: The ICE cotton price is under pressure, and the domestic cotton supply is sufficient. The price is expected to be adjusted [82]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton inspection progress is behind, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory is increasing [82]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to continue to be adjusted [82]. 3.7.6 Eggs - **Spot Market**: The price was stable in most areas, and the supply and demand were balanced [84]. - **Supply**: The inventory of laying hens is stable, and the inventory pressure is relieved [84]. - **Demand**: The trader's purchasing is cautious, and the inventory has increased [84]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [84]. 3.7.7 Oils - **Analysis**: The palm oil price is boosted by exports, and the soybean oil and rapeseed oil prices are affected by multiple factors. The prices are expected to fluctuate [85][87][88]. - **Fundamentals**: The Malaysian palm oil export and reference price change, and the US soybean oil supply is sufficient [86][88]. - **Outlook**: The palm oil may break through resistance levels, and the

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal sector experienced a slight increase of 0.21% on January 20, with Shaanxi Black Cat leading the gains, while the overall market indices showed a decline [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65, down 0.01% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14155.63, down 0.97% [1] Group 2: Coking Coal Sector Stocks - Shaanxi Black Cat (601015) closed at 3.95, up 2.33% with a trading volume of 796,400 shares and a turnover of 313 million yuan - Antai Group (600408) closed at 4.32, up 2.13% with a trading volume of 1,496,200 shares - Yunmei Energy (600792) closed at 4.10, up 0.99% with a trading volume of 297,000 shares - Shanxi Coking Coal (600740) closed at 4.02, up 0.25% with a trading volume of 285,500 shares - Meijin Energy (000723) closed at 4.73, unchanged with a trading volume of 753,200 shares - Baotailong (601011) closed at 3.36, down 1.47% with a trading volume of 567,700 shares - Yunwei Co. (600725) closed at 4.46, down 2.19% with a trading volume of 346,900 shares [1] Group 3: Capital Flow Analysis - The coking coal sector saw a net outflow of 54.59 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 18.54 million yuan - Speculative funds had a net inflow of 73.13 million yuan [1] - Shaanxi Black Cat had a main fund net outflow of 15.48 million yuan, with a retail net outflow of 27.69 million yuan [2] - Antai Group experienced a main fund net outflow of 12.19 million yuan, with speculative funds seeing a net inflow of 48.75 million yuan [2] - Shanxi Coking Coal had a significant main fund net outflow of 31.69 million yuan, while retail funds had a net inflow of 16.99 million yuan [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Before the Spring Festival, domestic demand is weak, and prices have fully factored in the weak demand. The decline in production and the accumulation of raw materials have led to a weakening of raw material prices, and the recent cost reduction may cause the steel price center to shift downwards. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan/ton, and for hot - rolled coils, it is 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton. It is recommended to hold long positions in the steel - to - iron ore ratio and long positions in the hot - rolled coil to rebar price spread [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market faces a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is constrained by high inventory on the upside and supported by the expectation of steel mill restocking on the downside. In the short term, attention should be paid to the resumption of iron - making production, macro - level narratives, and the rhythm of steel mill restocking. In the long term, negotiation situations need to be monitored. It is expected that the iron ore price will fluctuate widely, with a recommended trading range of 770 - 830 [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, after the fourth round of spot price cuts, some coke enterprises are resisting further price cuts and are considering production cuts to maintain prices. The mainstream coke enterprises have initiated a price increase, which is expected to be implemented. The futures price of coke has fallen in advance, and the spot price decline depends on the decline of coking coal. It is recommended to be bearish on the futures price and consider an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke. - For coking coal, although there is a demand for spot restocking before the Spring Festival, the futures price has already factored in the increase. After the Spring Festival, the market supply and demand are expected to be loose. It is also recommended to be bearish on the futures price and consider an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is limited, and there is a lack of upward momentum at the industrial level. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 5300 - 5800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - level and policy - related narratives. - Ferromanganese: It is in a situation of weak supply and demand. High inventory suppresses the price in the short term, but manganese ore provides support. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined, except for the 01 contract of rebar and hot - rolled coil, which increased [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased, while plate billet prices remained unchanged. The costs of different types of steel production varied, and the profits of most regions showed an upward trend [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average iron - making production decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The production of five major steel products increased slightly by 0.6 tons to 819.2 tons, a rise of 0.1%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 6.9 tons to 1247.0 tons, a decline of 0.6% [1]. Trading and Demand - The daily average building material trading volume decreased by 1.0 to 8.5, a decline of 10.4%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 29.3 tons to 826.1 tons, a rise of 3.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of iron ore spot, warehouse - receipt costs, and price indices mostly declined. The 5 - 9 spread and 1 - 5 spread also decreased [3]. Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrival volume decreased by 260.7 tons to 2659.7 tons, a decline of 8.9%. The global weekly shipping volume decreased by 251.0 tons to 2929.9 tons, a decline of 7.9%. However, the national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 tons to 11964.7 tons, a rise of 8.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average iron - making production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decline of 0.6%. The 45 - port daily average ore - unloading volume decreased by 3.4 tons to 661.3 tons, a decline of 1.0%. The national monthly pig - iron and crude - steel production also decreased [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 279.8 tons to 16555.1 tons, a rise of 1.7%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 272.6 tons to 9262.2 tons, a rise of 3.0%. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increased by 2 days to 21 days, a rise of 10.5% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices showed a slight upward trend, while the basis of some contracts decreased. The coking profit decreased, while the coal - mine profit increased [5]. Supply - The daily average coke production of full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased slightly. The production of raw coal and clean coal in sample coal mines also decreased slightly [5]. Demand - The iron - making production of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, and the demand for coke and coking coal showed mixed trends [5]. Inventory - Coke inventory increased slightly overall, with ports and steel mills accumulating inventory and coking plants reducing inventory. Coking coal inventory also increased slightly, with all links in the supply chain accumulating inventory [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices - The futures prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese declined slightly, and the spot prices of most regions also decreased [6]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions showed different trends, and the production profits generally decreased [6]. Supply - The weekly production of ferrosilicon decreased slightly, and the production of ferromanganese remained stable. The production start - up rates of both decreased [6]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly, and the iron - making production and blast - furnace start - up rate also decreased [6]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly, and the average available days of inventory also decreased [6].

Group 1 - The coke sector experienced a rise of 2.51% on January 19, with Baotailong leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4114.0, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14294.05, up 0.09% [1] - Key stocks in the coke sector showed various performance metrics, with Baotailong closing at 3.41, up 4.60%, and Yunmei Energy at 4.06, up 3.57% [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of main funds in the coke sector was 108 million yuan, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 79.42 million yuan [1] - Detailed fund flow data indicates that Yunwei Co. had a main fund inflow of 30.45 million yuan, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 25.46 million yuan [2] - An Tai Group recorded a main fund inflow of 24.25 million yuan, with retail funds showing a net outflow of 37.83 million yuan [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel supply and demand are both weak, with controllable real - inventory pressure and limited industrial contradictions. Prices follow raw material fluctuations, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore - Iron ore faces a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is suppressed by high inventory on the upside and supported by steel mill restocking expectations and hot - metal复产 on the downside. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility, with a reference range of 770 - 830 [4]. Coke - After the fourth round of price cuts for coke, some coke enterprises resist further cuts and initiate price increases, which are expected to be implemented. It is recommended to go long on the dips and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - Driven by pre - Spring Festival restocking demand, it is recommended to go long on the dips and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon - Short - term ferrosilicon supply - demand contradictions are limited, and there is a lack of upward drivers at the industrial level. After a pullback, one can try to go long on the dips, with a bottom support reference of around 5500 [7]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese is in a situation of weak supply and demand. High inventory suppresses prices in the short term, but manganese ore provides support. It is expected to fluctuate widely, with a local support reference of around 5800 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions have varying degrees of increase or decrease. The spread between the May contracts of hot - rolled coils and rebar has widened to 161 [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remain unchanged. The costs of different types of steel production have different changes, and the profits of different regions and varieties also vary [1]. Supply - The daily average hot - metal output has decreased by 0.7%, and the output of the five major steel products has increased slightly by 0.1%. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coils has different trends [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products has decreased by 0.6%. The inventory of rebar remains unchanged, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils has decreased by 1.6% [1]. Demand - The demand has decreased month - on - month, mainly due to the seasonal weakening of rebar demand. The apparent demand for rebar remains low, while that for hot - rolled coils has recovered month - on - month, better than the seasonal average in previous years [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs and 05 - contract basis of various iron ore varieties have slightly decreased. The 5 - 9 spread and 1 - 5 spread have changed to different extents [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume has increased by 5.9%, the global shipment volume has decreased by 1.0%, and the national monthly import volume has increased by 8.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills has decreased by 0.6%, the 45 - port daily average desulfurization volume has decreased by 1.0%, and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output have decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory has increased by 1.7%, the 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory has increased by 3.0%, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills have increased by 10.5% [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal spot and futures prices have decreased to different extents. The basis and spreads of different contracts have also changed [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants has decreased by 0.2%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills has decreased by 0.3% [6]. Demand - The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills has decreased by 0.6% [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory has increased by 0.5%, and the coking coal inventory of different entities has different trends [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap has increased by 188.0% [6]. Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures and spot prices have decreased. The spreads between different regions and contracts have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon in different regions have slightly changed, and the production profits have decreased. The prices of manganese ore raw materials remain stable [7]. Supply - The weekly output of ferrosilicon has decreased slightly, and the production enterprises' operating rate has decreased by 1.4% [7]. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon has decreased, and the iron - making - related demand indicators have also decreased [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises has decreased by 7.5%, and the average available days of downstream ferrosilicon have decreased [7]. Silicomanganese Prices and Spreads - Silicomanganese futures and spot prices have decreased, and the spreads between different regions and contracts have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of silicomanganese in different regions remain stable, and the manganese ore prices are strong [7]. Supply - The weekly output of silicomanganese remains unchanged, and the operating rate has decreased by 0.1% [7]. Demand - The demand for silicomanganese has decreased, and the iron - making - related demand indicators have also decreased [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample silicomanganese enterprises has decreased by 2.5%, and the average available days of silicomanganese inventory have decreased [7].

Industry Investment Ratings - Macrofinance: Index (Long-term bullish, short-term shock adjustment), Treasury bonds (Shock), Copper (Shock), Aluminum (Shock), Alumina (Shock), Zinc (Shock), Nickel (High-level shock), Stainless steel (High-level shock), Tin (Potential for increase), Precious metals (High-level wide-range shock), Industrial silicon and polysilicon (Bearish), Lithium carbonate (No clear rating), Rebar (Shock), Iron ore (Shock), Coke (Shock), Coking coal (Bullish), Anthracite (Bullish), Palm oil (Shock), Soybean oil (Bullish), Rapeseed oil (Bearish), Cotton (Shock), Sugar (Bearish), Corn (Shock), Soybeans (Bearish), Pulp (Shock), Logs (Shock), Live pigs (Shock), Fuel oil (Shock), Bitumen (Shock), BR rubber (Bullish), PTA (Shock), Ethylene glycol (Shock), Styrene (Bearish), Urea (Shock), PF (Shock), PVC (Shock), LPG (Bullish), Container shipping European line (Shock) [1] Core Views - The policy aims for a "slow bull" in the stock index rather than suppressing the market. The short-term shock adjustment space is expected to be limited, and long-term bulls can choose opportunities to layout. Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. The downstream demand is relatively pressured, and with the US suspending the tax on key minerals, the short-term concern about copper hoarding has eased, causing copper prices to fall from high levels. The supply of nickel ore remains tight, but the continuous accumulation of global nickel inventories may restrict the rise of nickel prices. The prices of precious metals are expected to shift to high-level wide-range shocks. The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are bearish. The prices of black metals are affected by weak reality and strong expectations. The prices of agricultural products are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather. The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical situations, and cost support [1] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - Index: The stock index rose strongly in the first half of the week and then adjusted with policy regulation. The short-term shock adjustment space is limited, and long-term bulls can choose opportunities to layout [1] - Treasury bonds: Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Pay attention to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: The downstream demand is relatively pressured, and with the US suspending the tax on key minerals, the short-term concern about copper hoarding has eased, causing copper prices to fall from high levels [1] - Aluminum: The recent industrial drive is limited, and the macro sentiment has weakened, causing aluminum prices to fall from high levels [1] - Alumina: The alumina production capacity still has a large release space, and the industrial side weakens the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1] - Zinc: The cost center of the zinc fundamentals is stable, but the inventory pressure is obvious. The current price has insufficient fundamental support, and the zinc price fluctuates in a range under the repeated macro sentiment [1] - Nickel: The supply of nickel ore remains tight, but the continuous accumulation of global nickel inventories may restrict the rise of nickel prices. The short-term nickel price fluctuates at a high level and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy changes in Indonesia, the macro sentiment, and the futures positions [1] - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel iron continues to rise, the social inventory of stainless steel decreases slightly, and the steel mill's production schedule in January increases. Pay attention to the actual production situation of the steel mill. The stainless steel futures fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term [1] - Tin: The short-term macro sentiment is repeated, and the tin price has corrected. However, the supply vulnerability of tin ore still exists, and it still has the driving force to rise. Pay attention to the opportunity of low absorption [1] - Precious metals: The geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the rise of precious metal prices has slowed down. The silver price has fallen under pressure. The short-term gold and silver prices are expected to shift to high-level wide-range shocks. In the long term, it is recommended to allocate platinum at low levels or choose the arbitrage strategy of [long platinum, short palladium] [1] Black Metals - Rebar: The expectation is strong, but the spot is weak, and the sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth. The continuous rise kinetic energy is insufficient. Unilaterally long orders should leave the market and wait and see; participate in the positive arbitrage position in the spot and futures [1] - Iron ore: The sector rotates, but the upper pressure of iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long at this position. The weak reality and strong expectation are intertwined. The actual supply and demand continue to be weak, and the energy consumption double control and anti-involution may disturb the supply [1] - Coke: The short-term market sentiment warms up, and the supply and demand are supported, but the medium-term supply and demand continue to be surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - Coking coal: If the expectation of "capacity reduction" continues to ferment and the spot replenishes the inventory before the Spring Festival, coking coal may still have room to rise, but the actual rise space is difficult to judge, and the volatility increases after a large rise. It is necessary to be cautious [1] - Anthracite: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural Products - Cotton: The domestic new crop production expectation is strong, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream start-up maintains a low level, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "supported but no driving force." Pay attention to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document on direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas in the first quarter of next year, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, the weather during the planting period, and the peak season demand from March to April [1] - Sugar: The global sugar is in surplus, and the domestic new crop supply increases. The short consensus is relatively consistent. If the disk continues to fall, the lower cost support is strong, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Pay attention to the changes in the capital side [1] - Corn: The grain sales progress of Northeast corn is relatively fast, the port inventory is low, and the middle and lower reaches have a certain replenishment demand before the festival. The short-term spot is still relatively strong, and the disk is expected to fluctuate in a range [1] - Soybeans: With the progress of the Brazilian harvest, the Brazilian CNF premium is expected to reflect the selling pressure of the soybean harvest. Coupled with the pressure on the rapeseed sector from the Sino-Canadian easing, the MO5 is expected to be under pressure, and the MO5 - M09 is expected to be in a reverse arbitrage [1] - Pulp: The pulp fell today due to the decline of the commodity macro. The overall did not break through the shock range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has recently shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding. It is expected that the further decline space of the futures price is limited. However, the external quotation in January still shows a slight decline, and the spot and futures markets of logs lack driving factors for rising. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] - Live pigs: The spot and futures of live pigs gradually stabilize. The demand support and the unsold slaughter weight, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Products - Fuel oil: OPEC+ suspends production increase until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement affects. The US sanctions the Venezuelan crude oil export. The short-term supply and demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five-Year Plan rush work is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The asphalt profit is high [1] - Bitumen: The raw material cost support is strong. The spot-futures price difference rebounds greatly. The intermediate inventory increases [1] - BR rubber: The disk position decreases, and the new warehouse receipts increase. The BR increase slows down periodically. The spot leads the rise to repair the basis, and the BR continues to pay attention to the upward driving force above 12,000. The BD/BR listing price continues to be raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber narrows. The overseas cracking device capacity is cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The naphtha tax also has a positive support for the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high operation and high inventory, and the transaction center is average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber [1] - PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, and this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The PX fundamentals are indeed supported, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. The domestic PTA maintains high operation. The gasoline price difference is still at a high level, which supports the aromatics [1] - Ethylene glycol: The market spreads the news that two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, with a total annual production capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline due to the stimulation of supply-side news. The current polyester downstream start-up rate maintains above 90%, and the demand performance slightly exceeds expectations [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. The suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while the buyers insist on pressing prices due to the weak downstream polymer demand and profit compression. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a bullish sentiment due to the export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward driving force needs to pay attention to the drive of the overseas market [1] - Urea: The export sentiment eases slightly, and the domestic demand is insufficient. The upper space is limited. The lower has the support of anti-involution and the cost side [1] - PF: The geopolitical conflict intensifies, and the crude oil has a rising risk. The maintenance decreases, and the operation load is at a high level. The long-distance arrival increases the supply. The downstream demand operation weakens. The price returns to a reasonable range [1] - PVC: There is less global production in 2026, and the future expectation is optimistic. The fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate is cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing to export later. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the PVC production capacity to be cleared [1] - LPG: The January CP rises unexpectedly, and the cost support of imported gas is strong. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East escalates, and the short-term risk premium rises. The EIA weekly C3 inventory accumulation trend slows down, and it is expected to gradually turn to destocking. The domestic port inventory also decreases [1] - Container shipping European line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. The airlines are still cautious in their tentative re-navigation. The pre-festival replenishment demand still exists [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Baotailong's stock has experienced fluctuations in price and trading volume, with a recent increase of 2.15% in a single trading session, despite a year-to-date decline of 2.06% [1][2] - As of January 19, Baotailong's stock price was reported at 3.33 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 6.379 billion yuan [1] - The company has seen a significant decrease in revenue for the first nine months of 2025, reporting 479 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.55%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 118.44% to 50.36 million yuan [2] Group 2 - Baotailong's main business segments include coal mining, washing and processing, coking, chemical production, power generation, heating, new energy, and new materials, with the largest revenue contributions coming from raw coal (28.60%), clean coal (22.92%), and heating and electricity (21.68%) [2] - The company has not distributed any dividends in the last three years, with a total payout of 332 million yuan since its A-share listing [3] - As of September 30, 2025, Baotailong had 83,100 shareholders, a decrease of 10.86% from the previous period, with an average of 23,062 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 12.18% [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - After four rounds of price reductions, the coking coal price has initiated its first price increase plan for 2026, with many companies receiving the price increase notice last week [1]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - Since late December 2025, coking plants have transitioned from profitability to losses, with losses continuing to expand [6]. - The average loss per ton of coke last week was 65 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan week-on-week, while the profit for rebar steel fluctuated around 60 yuan per ton [7]. - Coking profits have been declining due to relatively stable coking coal prices, leading to a situation where coking plants are now operating at a loss [7]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall supply and demand for coke are weak, with total inventory accelerating accumulation. Both independent coking plants and steel mills have seen slight declines in production [7]. - The average daily production of independent coking enterprises is 634,500 tons, while steel mill coking enterprises maintain a daily production of 467,200 tons, both remaining stable but below last year's levels [8]. - Steel mills currently hold 6.5 million tons of coke inventory, which is at a relatively low level, with only 12 days of available supply [8]. Group 3: Winter Storage and Market Outlook - Due to the late timing of the Spring Festival this year, winter storage replenishment has been delayed, and most steel mills remain cautious about replenishing inventory due to poor terminal demand expectations [9]. - The independent pricing ability of the coking industry is still weak, with coke prices primarily influenced by coking coal and steel prices [9]. - The outlook for coke prices is limited, as steel mill profits have not improved, and the overall supply of raw materials remains relatively loose, suggesting that coke prices may experience limited upward movement [9].

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the growth in China's coke and semi-coke exports, with a notable increase in both quantity and value in November 2025 [1] Export Data Summary - In November 2025, China's coke and semi-coke exports reached 720,000 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 34.1% [1] - The export value for the same period was $11.5 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [1] Industry Analysis - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services for investment decisions [1]