2025年1-9月空调/冰箱/洗衣机内销量同比增长8%/2%/5%，其中9月开始出现下降，国补高基数压力初 显。后续看，国补高基数压力主要集中在2025Q4及2026Q2，后续增速有望逐步修复。中长期看，我国 空调需求仍具备增长潜力，尚有30%以上的家庭住房未安装空调；冰洗规模则相对稳定，行业需求韧性 充足。格局方面，空冰洗行业集中度均有所提升，1-9月空调行业CR3同比提升0.2pct，冰洗龙头海尔、 美的份额持续提升。 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，当前白电板块估值处于历史低位，内外销短期承压但中长期 韧性充足。内销在空调渗透率提升和龙头份额集中下仍有空间，外销随关税影响减弱、海外降息及产能 出海布局，有望逐季复苏。2026年基数压力缓解后有望回归稳健增长，龙头公司凭借份额提升与品牌出 海具备更强增长动能。 国信证券主要观点如下： 白电当前位置 通过复盘家电下乡期间家电的股价表现，该行发现，家电相对收益有望在销量同比增速最差的时间点触 底，并随着降幅的收窄而有所反弹。随着销量增速逐步回正并实现一定幅度的正增长，家电有望取得明 显正相对收益。在这期间，收入业绩增长稳健、市占率提升的家电龙头公司股价 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the home appliance industry [11] Core Insights - The home appliance sector shows strong profitability resilience despite challenges from domestic subsidy reductions and external tariff impacts. The overall valuation remains at a reasonable low level, suggesting opportunities for growth in high-performing leaders and stable value recovery in established companies [2][10] Overall Industry Summary - The home appliance industry achieved a revenue growth of 7.52% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with quarterly growth rates of +13.97%, +5.46%, and +3.59% respectively. The growth trend is expected to slow down due to subsidy reductions and diminishing marginal effects [4][21] - The gross profit margin for the industry in Q3 2025 was 24.75%, reflecting a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.54 percentage points, while the gross sales difference improved by 0.64 percentage points to 16.35% [31][39] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1,048.77 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.76%, with Q3 net profit growing by 4.22% [38][44] White Goods - The white goods sector reported a revenue growth of 9.06% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with Q3 growth at 5.29%. The sector benefits from a reduction in domestic price competition, leading to a recovery in gross profit margins [5][27] - The net profit for the white goods sector increased by 11.32% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with Q3 showing a growth of 3.50% [43][44] Black Goods - The black goods sector experienced a revenue growth of 3.09% year-on-year in the first three quarters, but Q3 saw a decline of 2.64%. The sector's performance is influenced by a low base effect and increased non-recurring gains [6][24] - The net profit for the black goods sector surged by 37.26% in Q3, reflecting a strong recovery [42][43] Kitchen Appliances and Post-Cycle - The kitchen appliance sector faced a revenue decline of 4.09% in Q3 2025, attributed to a downturn in the real estate market and cautious consumer spending [7][25] - The net profit for the kitchen appliance sector decreased by 12.73% year-on-year in Q3 [42][43] Small Appliances - The small appliances sector achieved a revenue growth of 5.92% in Q3 2025, with the cleaning segment showing a remarkable growth of 30.70% [8][24] - The net profit for the small appliances sector increased by 16.52% year-on-year in Q3 [42][43] Upstream Components - The upstream components sector reported a revenue growth of 8.13% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with Q3 growth at 3.31%. The sector's profitability significantly improved due to order and business structure optimization [9][26] - The net profit for the upstream components sector grew by 30.29% in Q3 [42][43] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-growth leaders with strong organizational, technological, and brand capabilities, such as Anker Innovations, Roborock, and Ninebot. Additionally, it recommends paying attention to stable leaders like Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Gree Electric for value recovery opportunities [10]

Core Insights - The home appliance industry shows resilient growth with a 3.6% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3, totaling 366.3 billion yuan, despite external pressures from reduced government subsidies and high export bases [13][14][22] - The overall net profit for the industry increased by 4.4% year-on-year, reaching 30.1 billion yuan, with a slight improvement in net profit margin by 0.1 percentage points [13][14][22] Segment Analysis White Goods - The white goods segment reported a revenue of 268.7 billion yuan in Q3, reflecting a 5.0% year-on-year growth, with a net profit margin of 9.5% [30][31] - Major players like Midea and Haier showed strong performance, with Midea's revenue growing by 9.9% and Haier's by 9.5% [33][34] Kitchen Appliances - The kitchen appliance segment experienced a revenue decline of 4.8% in Q3, totaling 5.96 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 8.4% [37][44] - Traditional kitchen appliance companies like Boss and Vanward maintained relatively stable performance, while integrated stove manufacturers faced significant pressure [43][44] Black Goods - The black goods segment saw a revenue decrease of 3.6% in Q3, amounting to 47.29 billion yuan, but net profit increased by 41.9% to 1.4 billion yuan [45][53] - Companies like Hisense maintained stable growth, benefiting from balanced domestic and international operations [52][53] Small Appliances - The small appliance segment achieved a revenue growth of 6.3% in Q3, reaching 30.62 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 6.7% [54][59] - Emerging categories within small appliances, such as robotic vacuum cleaners, contributed significantly to revenue growth [59] Lighting and Components - The lighting and components segment reported stable revenue of 13.73 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1%, but faced profit pressure with a net profit margin of 4.6% [3][28]

Core Insights - The home appliance industry shows resilient growth with a 3.6% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3, totaling 366.3 billion yuan, despite a slowdown due to the reduction of national subsidies and high export bases [13][14][22] - The overall net profit for the industry increased by 4.4% year-on-year, reaching 30.1 billion yuan, with a slight improvement in net profit margin by 0.1 percentage points [13][14][22] Segment Analysis White Goods - The white goods segment reported a revenue of 268.7 billion yuan in Q3, reflecting a 5.0% year-on-year growth, with a net profit margin of 9.5% [30][31] - Major players like Midea and Haier showed strong performance, with Midea's revenue growing by 9.9% and Haier's by 9.5% [33][34] Kitchen Appliances - The kitchen appliance segment experienced a revenue decline of 4.8% in Q3, totaling 5.96 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 8.4% [37][44] - Traditional kitchen appliance companies like Boss and Vanward maintained relatively stable performance, while integrated stove companies faced significant pressure [43][44] Black Goods - The black goods segment saw a revenue decrease of 3.6% in Q3, amounting to 47.29 billion yuan, but net profit increased by 41.9% to 1.4 billion yuan [45][53] - Companies like Hisense maintained stable growth, benefiting from balanced domestic and international operations [52][53] Small Appliances - The small appliance segment achieved a revenue growth of 6.3% in Q3, reaching 30.62 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 6.7% [54][59] - Emerging categories within small appliances contributed significantly to revenue growth, with companies like Roborock and Xiaobear showing strong performance [59] Lighting and Components - The lighting and components segment reported stable revenue of 13.73 billion yuan in Q3, with a slight decline in net profit margin to 4.6% [3][28] - The segment faced challenges due to declining downstream demand and tariff impacts [3][28] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Midea Group, Haier, TCL, and Gree in the white goods sector, while Hisense is suggested for black goods, and Roborock and Xiaobear for small appliances [4][5] Key Data Tracking - The home appliance sector's relative return in October was +0.70%, indicating positive market performance [3][4] - Raw material prices showed increases in October, with copper and aluminum prices rising by 5.7% and 7.6% respectively [3][4]

Core Insights - Zhang Ruimin's contributions to Haier Group include creating a global enterprise, establishing a world-class brand, pioneering a leading business model, and fostering a maker culture, with the "Ren-Dan-He-Yi" model being central to his management philosophy [2][3] Group 1: Business Model and Culture - The "Ren-Dan-He-Yi" model emphasizes aligning employees with user needs, encouraging each employee to find their own users [2] - In 2012, Haier implemented a network strategy that dismantled hierarchical structures, resulting in the elimination of over 10,000 middle management positions, leading to a focus on three roles: platform owners, micro-entrepreneurs, and makers [2][3] Group 2: Current Challenges - Despite the initial success of the "Ren-Dan-He-Yi" model, internal communication and collaboration have become challenging over time, leading to inefficiencies within Haier Smart Home [4] - Li Huagang, the current head of Haier Smart Home, has emphasized the need for digital restructuring to enhance internal efficiency, but his performance has been seen as mediocre, reflecting the company's overall performance [4][10] Group 3: Financial Performance - Haier Smart Home reported a revenue of 775.6 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.51%, with a total revenue of 2,340.54 billion for the first three quarters, up 9.98% year-on-year [6][7] - The company's performance has outpaced the overall market, as the Chinese home appliance industry saw a decline of 3.2% in retail sales during the same period [9] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The recent government subsidies have temporarily boosted consumption but are expected to lead to a decline in demand in the latter half of 2025, raising concerns about future revenue growth for Haier Smart Home [10][12] - The capital market has shown caution towards Haier Smart Home, with its price-to-earnings ratio dropping from approximately 15 times at the beginning of the year to about 11.9 times by the end of October [10] Group 5: Operational Efficiency - Haier Smart Home has been facing "big company disease," characterized by low operational efficiency and high costs compared to competitors, resulting in the lowest profit margins among major domestic players [14][16] - The company's sales expense ratio has been consistently higher than that of its competitors, indicating inefficiencies in cost management [17][18] Group 6: International Market Performance - Haier Smart Home's North American market, which accounts for over half of its overseas revenue, has shown stagnation, limiting the company's growth potential in international markets [19][20] - The North American market has seen a decline in revenue growth, contributing to the overall challenges faced by Haier Smart Home in expanding its overseas presence [20] Group 7: Future Directions - The company is undergoing a transformation under the leadership of Zhou Yunjie, who has called for embracing AI and organizational changes, but achieving these goals will require overcoming internal efficiency challenges [13][21] - The complexity of the organizational structure and the proliferation of brands have created barriers to effective communication and collaboration, hindering the company's ability to innovate and respond to market demands [24][25]

Core Insights - The home appliance industry is experiencing a decline in domestic sales growth while external sales are improving, with a focus on self-owned brands [5][6][11] Industry Overview - The home appliance sector reported a revenue of 12,678 billion yuan and a net profit of 955 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.4% and 10.2% respectively [11][12] - The overall profitability of the industry remains stable, with a gross margin of 24.3% and a net profit margin of 7.5% [11][12] White Goods Sector - In Q3 2025, the domestic sales growth of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showed a decline, with external sales down by 13%, 5%, and 1% respectively [6][16] - The revenue and net profit growth for key white goods companies in Q3 2025 was 9.0% and 2.7% respectively, indicating a slowdown compared to Q2 2025 [26][28] Small Appliances Sector - The small appliances segment saw rapid growth in cleaning appliances, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 21.5%, while traditional small appliances maintained a stable growth rate of 5.6% [35][37] - Key players like Ecovacs and Roborock reported significant revenue growth of 29.3% and 60.7% respectively [35][37] Black Goods Sector - The black goods sector experienced a revenue decline of 4.5% in Q3 2025, but net profit increased by 94.4%, showing a significant recovery from the previous quarter [50][52] - Companies like XGIMI led the industry with a revenue growth of 2.9% and a net profit increase of 79.7% [50][51] Kitchen Appliances Sector - The traditional kitchen appliance segment reported a slight revenue decrease of 0.7% but a net profit increase of 2.0%, indicating an improvement compared to Q2 2025 [59][60] - Boss Electric showed strong performance with a revenue growth of 1.4% and a net profit increase of 0.2% [59][60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance industry, particularly recommending investments in the white goods sector due to its low valuation, high dividends, and stable growth potential [3][4][5]. Core Insights - The home appliance industry experienced a revenue growth of 4.57% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 356.1 billion yuan. Net profit increased by 3.49% to 30.158 billion yuan [3][20]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1) White goods benefiting from favorable real estate policies and trade-in incentives; 2) Export-oriented companies like Ousheng Electric and Dechang Co. showing stable profitability; 3) Core components suppliers like Huaxiang Co. and Shun'an Environment poised for growth due to increased demand [3][4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - The home appliance sector underperformed compared to the broader market, with an 8.3% increase from July to September 2025, lagging behind the 17.9% rise of the CSI 300 index [9][10]. 2. Q3 2025 Revenue and Profit Growth - The home appliance industry saw a total revenue of 356.1 billion yuan in Q3 2025, marking a 4.57% increase year-on-year. The net profit for the same period was 30.158 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.49% growth [3][20]. 3. Subsector Performance 3.1 White Goods - The white goods sector achieved a revenue of 254.924 billion yuan, up 5.64% year-on-year, with a net profit of 25.049 billion yuan, a growth of 3.42% [40][41]. 3.2 Kitchen Appliances - The kitchen appliance sector reported a revenue decline of 6.38% to 7.257 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 18.66% to 548 million yuan [47][48]. 3.3 Small Appliances - Small appliances saw a revenue increase of 11.36% to 36.739 billion yuan, with a net profit rise of 2.13% to 2.201 billion yuan [53][54]. 3.4 Black Goods - The black goods sector experienced a revenue decline of 4.02% to 26.898 billion yuan and a significant net profit drop of 28.12% to 332 million yuan [59][61]. 3.5 Components - The components sector reported a revenue increase of 6.85% to 30.238 billion yuan and a net profit surge of 29.07% to 2.027 billion yuan [64][65]. 4. Key Investment Targets - The report highlights key companies for investment, including Midea, Haier, and Gree in the white goods sector, as well as Ousheng Electric and Shun'an Environment in the components sector [3][4][5]. 5. Investment Analysis - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the home appliance sector driven by domestic trade-in policies and recovering overseas demand, suggesting a favorable outlook for the industry in 2025 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance industry, particularly focusing on the white goods sector and core components [3][4]. Core Insights - The home appliance industry experienced a revenue growth of 4.57% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 356.1 billion yuan. Net profit increased by 3.49% to 30.158 billion yuan [4][27]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1) White goods benefiting from favorable real estate policies and trade-in incentives; 2) Export-driven companies like Ousheng Electric and Dechang Co. showing stable profitability; 3) Core components suppliers like Huaxiang Co. and Shun'an Environment leading in demand due to the white goods sector's unexpected growth [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - The home appliance sector underperformed compared to the broader market, with an 8.3% increase from July 1 to September 30, 2025, lagging behind the 17.9% rise of the CSI 300 index [14][19]. 2. Q3 2025 Home Appliance Industry Performance - Revenue growth of 4.57% year-on-year, with a total of 356.1 billion yuan in revenue. The net profit growth was 3.49%, totaling 30.158 billion yuan [4][27]. - The gross margin decreased by 0.68 percentage points to 25.38%, while the net margin slightly increased by 0.06 percentage points to 8.65% [30][36]. 3. Subsector Performance - **White Goods**: Revenue increased by 5.64% to 254.924 billion yuan, with net profit growth of 3.42% [48][49]. - **Kitchen Appliances**: Revenue decreased by 6.38% to 7.257 billion yuan, with a significant net profit decline of 18.66% [56][59]. - **Small Appliances**: Revenue grew by 11.36% to 36.739 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 2.13% [4][42]. - **Black Goods**: Revenue fell by 4.02% to 26.898 billion yuan, with net profit down by 28.12% [4][12]. - **Components**: Revenue rose by 6.85% to 30.238 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 29.07% [4][43]. 4. Key Investment Targets - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the white goods sector such as Hisense, Midea, Haier, and Gree, as well as component suppliers like Huaxiang and Shun'an Environment [4][6].

Core Insights - The impact of the national subsidy reduction on domestic sales of core home appliance categories is limited in both time and magnitude, with leading companies performing better than industry shipment trends [1][3] - The overall domestic sales growth rate for home appliances is expected to be low initially and then increase towards 2026, indicating a recovery trend [1][3] - Long-term growth in the home appliance sector is anticipated to come from overseas markets, despite short-term disruptions from tariffs and inventory cycles [1][3] Group 1: Home Appliance Dividend Assets - Home appliance dividend assets, represented by leading white goods companies, offer high dividend yields and have room for improvement in cash dividends and share buybacks [2] - The recognition of the dividend attributes of white goods assets by medium to long-term funds is crucial for the valuation uplift of leading home appliance companies [2] - The governance and operational efficiency of leading home appliance companies provide them with potential for valuation expansion in the medium to long term [2] Group 2: Growth Dynamics Post-Subsidy Era - The home appliance industry is entering a post-subsidy era, with domestic sales expected to stabilize regardless of whether national subsidies continue [3] - The emergence of "industry catfish" is accelerating innovation and organizational changes among leading companies, reinforcing their competitive advantages [3] - Chinese home appliance brands are expected to continue gaining market share globally, with an increasing focus on localized operations [3] Group 3: Emerging Growth Categories - The penetration of AI and robotics is giving rise to new technology-driven consumer categories, with domestic brands rapidly emerging in these segments [4] - Chinese companies are achieving global leadership in niche categories such as robotic vacuum cleaners and action cameras, often positioning themselves in the high-end market [4] - Continuous product innovation and effective supply chain management are enabling Chinese firms to surpass overseas leaders in certain segments [4]

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the home appliance industry demonstrated resilience in Q3 2025, with revenue and profit showing steady growth, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 2.6% and a net profit increase of 4.8% [3][15][18] - The white goods sector continued to show stable growth, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 3.7%, while the kitchen appliances and lighting sectors saw a narrowing decline [3][15][25] - The small appliances sector experienced a year-on-year revenue growth of 6.4%, with notable performance from companies like Bear Electric and Beiding, which benefited from low base effects and improved internal operations [3][39] Group 2 - In the white goods segment, major companies such as Gree Electric and Midea Group reported mixed results, with Gree's revenue declining by 15.1% while Midea's increased by 9.9% [25][26] - The profitability of the white goods sector remained stable, with a year-on-year net profit increase of 3.5% and a slight decline in net profit margin by 0.1 percentage points [29][30] - The small appliances sector showed internal performance differentiation, with leading companies like Ecovacs and Roborock achieving significant revenue growth of 29.3% and 60.7% respectively [39][40] Group 3 - The black goods sector maintained stable volume and price increases, with companies like Hisense and Skyworth reporting revenue growth of 2.7% and 9.1% respectively [3][15] - The overall profitability in the black goods sector improved, with a year-on-year net profit margin increase of 0.7 percentage points for Hisense [3][18] - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on leading companies in the white goods sector such as Midea Group and Haier, as well as the black goods leader Hisense, due to their stable operational performance and dividend value [3][39]