投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/7/1 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/27 | 2025/6/30 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 498.5 | 496. 7 | -1.80 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情上涨,盘中PX行情偏强,成本支撑PTA。 或担忧下游聚酯减产,PTA现货基差走弱。 | | | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1155. 4 | 1188. 4 | 33. 08 | | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3189 | 1. 3292 | 0. 0103 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 868 | 874 | 6 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 298 | 304 | 6 | | | | PTA主力期价(元/吨) | ...

化工日报 | 2025-07-01 PX基本面偏强，关注浮动价商谈 市场要闻与数据 聚酯产业链期货产品重新回归基本面交易，关注前期原料高价下的瓶片减产计划在原料下跌后还能否兑现；另外 PX基本面依然偏紧，现货浮动价偏强维持，后期宏观方面7月还有OPEC+会议: 关税延期时限到期等需要关注，地 缘端也需要关注反复风险。 市场分析 成本端，在博弈完中东冲突后，原油市场短期将会聚焦基本面以及关税影响，短期受到交割地库欣低库存影响， 结构依然偏强，强现实弱预期的格局并未改变。但展望今年四季度，旺季结束后需求增长弹性将显著小于供应端， 原注预计进入到供过于求的状态，中期市场驱动偏空。 汽油和芳烃方面，近期美国汽油裂解再度回撤，在新能源替代的背景下预计汽油裂解价差上涨空间有限，今年的 调油需求已不值得过多的期待，国内外间歇性调油需求依靠石脑油基本可以满足，限制芳烃进入汽油池的积极性。 芳烃方面，3月以来韩国出口到美国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX有明显下降，近期关注利润恢复下PX短流程装置恢 复情况，短流程利润修复下，PX 工厂重新开始外采 MX 。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN298美元/吨(环比变动+14.00美元/吨 ...

聚酯数据周报 国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年6月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 观点汇总：需求淡季，估值偏低，短期不追空 PX 供应继续收缩，PX单边反弹。上周的周报中，由于对中东地缘冲突结束的迅速程度才出现误判，单边价格PX跟随原油价格大幅回落，同时月差 同步走弱。多PX空SC。就供需层面而言，PX7月份继续维持紧平衡的去库格局，其中下周浙石化、福海创、天津石化均有检修可能，海外韩国 装置这存在提负荷计划，总体亚洲开工率降进一步下降。需求方面，PTA装置下周供应稳中有升，东营威联计划检修、恒力大连重启，逸盛新 材料计划提负荷，整体负荷回升1-2%。PX整体格局偏紧。另外原油价格回落速度较为可观，但成品油消费旺季叠加低库存，近端下探空间有 限，因此单边价格PX预计偏强，月差仍以正套为主。 PTA 成本有支撑，但是月差有压力，单边震荡略偏强。多PTA空MEG止盈。 7月份聚酯短纤长丝工厂预计 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-27 宏观回归平淡，PX基本面偏强维持 市场要闻与数据 市场分析 成本端，如果伊以停火期间没有出现新的变数，则未来油市主要运行逻辑将从地缘政治重回基本面驱动。就当前 原油基本面而言，油市进入供需双增阶段，短期压力有限。但展望今年四季度，旺季结束后需求增长弹性将显著 小于供应端，原注预计进入到供过于求的状态，中期市场驱动偏空。 汽油和芳烃方面，近期美国汽油裂解再度回撤，在新能源替代的背景下预计汽油裂解价差上涨空间有限，今年的 调油需求已不值得过多的期待，国内外间歇性调油需求依靠石脑油基本可以满足，限制芳烃进入汽油池的积极性。 芳烃方面，3~5月韩国出口到美国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX有明显下降，近期关注利润恢复下PX短流程装置恢复 情况，短流程利润修复下，PX 工厂重新开始外采 MX 。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN270美元/吨(环比变动-3.00美元/吨）。近期中东地缘冲突导致伊朗、以色列PX装置停车， 沙特Rabigh芳烃装置重启延后, 海外PX开工下滑相对明显。月底国内几套PX装置计划检修，目前现货市场货源仍 较紧张，PX浮动价依然偏强，关注后续PTA检修和新装置投产进展 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/6/26 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/24 | 2025/6/25 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 518. 6 | 508. 6 | -10.00 | 成交情况: | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1007. 3 | 1094. 0 | 86. 67 | PTA: PTA行情下跌,地缘局势缓和,市场预估原油续 跌,PTA行情下跌。PTA现货货少,现货基差仍然较强 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1.2673 | 1. 2960 | 0. 0287 | | | | CFR中国PX | 859 | 849 | -10 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 217 | 263 | 46 | | | | PTA主力 ...

正信期货聚酯周报 20250623 作者：赵婷 审核：王艳红 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 投资咨询编号：Z0010675 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 内容要点 PTA：地缘冲突加剧，PTA跟随成本波动为主 MEG：中东冲突扰动EG进口，短期偏强运行 数据来源：WIND,隆众 成本端：地缘扰动加剧，国际原油短期上涨为主。PX方面，PX供需基本面向好，维持去库，若原油继续 上涨，PX绝对价格有望继续上扬。 供应端：PTA：下周，福海创有检修计划，PTA产量持续下降。乙二醇：下周来看供应端国产量提升，进 口货微降，总供应预计稳中小增加，但中东局势扰动下，进口担忧明显。 需求端：下周聚酯装置存负荷下滑预期，华润多个基地计划减产2成。纺织服装行业渐入淡季，当前电商 平台仍有零散订单支撑，但坯布市场整体销售明显放缓，工厂库存压力持续加大，需求端持续低迷，部 分企业存在降负预期。订单方面，淡季影响持续深入，品牌订单较前期出现下滑，仅有少量秋冬打样订 单，厂家对于后市预期不尽乐观，后市来看，整体开机率趋弱。 策略：PTA：地缘局势不确定性较强放大油价波动，PTA新投装置投 ...

聚酯数据周报 国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年6月22日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 观点汇总：成本推升估值走强 PX 成本继续支撑PX估值上升，单边预计偏强，月差正套持有，PXN走强。 当前行情的核心驱动继续维持在成本端。终端聚酯纺服需求进入季节性淡季，但PX方面，受中东地缘冲突影响，多套PX装置停车检修，中东地 区供应整体收紧，对应的亚洲其区域PX供需或稍显偏紧，对中国PX进口量产生影响。下周福海创、东营威联存在检修预期，市场也在交易7月 份浙石化PX检修计划，预计国内PX开工率将进一步下降。亚洲其他地区，韩国SK仁川、Soil、韩华计划提负荷，SK蔚山计划重启。PTA方面， 负荷预计进一步下降，东营威联预计检修。但整体而言，6-7月份PX恭喜继续偏紧。月差难以明显走弱。 PTA 单边价格预计偏强。月差建议正套逢高止盈。多PX空PTA持有。 当前PTA仍是成本驱动型行情。周末美国参与以伊冲突 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-20 聚酯负荷坚挺，地缘情绪下价格偏强运行 市场要闻与数据 近期原油价格走势偏强，成本支撑PX/PTA价格，主要驱动依然来自于地缘冲突。中东局势当前仍较为紧张，关注 时态进一步发展。 据CCF数据，周四聚酯负荷92%（较上周+1.1%），减产计划下聚酯负荷不降反升，需求端依然坚挺。 市场分析 成本端，近期油价在中东冲突加剧下暴力拉涨，上周末以色列袭击伊朗石油、天然气等能源基础设施，近期关注 地缘变化，如果伊以冲突对能源设施的破坏加剧，甚至对霍尔木兹海峡产生影响，则油价面临进一步的上行风险。 如果事态控制在一定程度内，则地缘溢价可能会再度回落。 汽油和芳烃方面，近期美国汽油裂解再度回撤，在新能源替代的背景下预计汽油裂解价差上涨空间有限，今年的 调油需求已不值得过多的期待，国内外间歇性调油需求依靠石脑油基本可以满足，限制芳烃进入汽油池的积极性。 芳烃方面，3~5月韩国出口到美国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX有明显下降，近期关注利润恢复下PX短流程装置恢复 情况，短流程利润修复下，PX 工厂重新开始外采 MX 。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN255美元/吨(环比变动-3.50美元/吨）。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, it is expected that crude oil prices will continue to rise, and the chemical industry as a whole will follow. The polyester downstream load remains at 91.3% despite the expectation of a reduction, and the actual polyester output has reached a new high. PTA will go through a destocking process, and the spot is becoming tight. For ethylene glycol, although the overall import volume from Iran is limited, it will continue to destock, and the arrival volume will decrease [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil rose from 529.9 yuan/barrel on June 13, 2025, to 541.6 yuan/barrel on June 16, an increase of 11.7 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC decreased from 931.2 yuan/ton to 830.1 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio dropped from 1.2418 to 1.2109. The PTA main contract futures price fell from 4782 yuan/ton to 4766 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped slightly from 5010 yuan/ton to 5005 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 382.6 yuan/ton to 311.5 yuan/ton, and the futures processing fee decreased from 154.6 yuan/ton to 72.5 yuan/ton. The PTA warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 1002 to 84853 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG main contract futures price rose from 4334 yuan/ton to 4374 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread increased from (135.61) yuan/ton to (131.80) yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price rose from 4400 yuan/ton to 4426 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX rose from 854 to 866, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 234 to 246. The PX operating rate remained unchanged at 83.07% [2]. - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, and DTY150D/48F prices all increased, with cash flows turning positive. The long - filament sales rate dropped from 447% to 30% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber rose from 6665 to 6690, and the cash flow increased from 7 to 28. The short - fiber sales rate dropped from 105% to 52% [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The semi - bright chip price rose from 5925 to 5960, and the chip cash flow increased from (183) to (152). The chip sales rate dropped from 257% to 40% [2]. 3.2 Industry Operating Rates - The PX operating rate remained unchanged at 83.07%, the PTA operating rate decreased from 83.56% to 81.57%, the MEG operating rate increased from 54.40% to 56.16%, and the polyester load increased slightly from 89.64% to 89.74% [2]. 3.3 Device Maintenance - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China has restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6, and a 3 - million - ton PTA device in East China has been shut down for maintenance recently, with an expected maintenance period of about 10 days [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the context of the intensified Israel-Iran conflict over the weekend, the crude oil price first soared and then declined, and the polyester industry chain fluctuated significantly accordingly. The planned production cuts of bottle chips increased, and the polyester industry chain was under pressure due to the weakening demand expectation [1]. - Regarding the cost side, the recent oil price has risen sharply due to the intensified Middle - East conflict. If the conflict causes more damage to energy facilities or affects the Strait of Hormuz, the oil price may face further upward risks; otherwise, the geopolitical premium may decline again. The gasoline cracking spread in the US has retracted, and the blending demand is not promising. The PX short - process plants may restart as the profit recovers [2]. - For PX, the PXN was 234 dollars/ton (with no change from the previous period). The PX load at home and abroad has generally increased recently, but it will decline again in July. The tight supply - demand situation needs further attention [2]. - For TA, the spot basis of the main contract was 231 yuan/ton (a 6 - yuan increase from the previous period), and the spot processing fee was 310 yuan/ton (a 70 - yuan decrease from the previous period). The PTA load continued to increase this week, and the supply became more abundant. It is expected that the PTA spot price will oscillate following the cost side in the short term [3]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate was 90.9% (a 0.2% decrease from the previous period). The terminal orders have weakened again since late May, and the downstream operating rates have declined slightly. The polyester load has remained stable recently after a decline, and the demand is expected to be weak in the off - season [3]. - For PF, the spot production profit was - 26 yuan/ton (a 26 - yuan increase from the previous period). The price will remain high under the low inventory of short - fiber factories and the operation to maintain the processing margin [3]. - For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips was 309 yuan/ton (a 5 - yuan decrease from the previous period). The bottle - chip price increased following the raw materials, but the new order procurement enthusiasm of overseas customers was not high due to the high ocean freight in June. The inventory pressure of polyester bottle - chip factories has increased again. The production cuts of major factories are being implemented, and the processing fee is expected to face pressure in the short term [4]. - The trading strategy suggests that PX/PTA/PF/PR are bullish in the short term under the Israel - Iran conflict, and attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. The fundamentals are gradually weakening, and further production - cut actions of polyester and the geopolitical conflict need to be monitored [5]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Price and Basis - The report presents the trends of TA and PX main contracts, their basis and inter - period spreads, as well as the PTA East - China spot basis and the basis of 1.56D*38mm semi - dull pure - white short fibers [9][10][12]. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It shows the PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21]. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report includes the toluene US - Asia spread, the spread between South Korean FOB toluene and Japanese CFR naphtha, and the PTA export profit [26][28]. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - It provides information on the PTA loads in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX loads in China and Asia [29][32][33]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory are presented [38][41][42]. Downstream Polyester Load - It shows the production and sales of filaments and short fibers, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester bottle - chip load, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Also, the inventory days and profits of different types of filaments are provided [50][52][62]. PF Detailed Data - The report includes the polyester short - fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, the operating rates and production profits of pure - polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn, and the spread between raw and recycled polyester short fibers [73][81][83]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It presents the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, and the price spreads between different periods of bottle chips [90][92][97].