Core Viewpoint - The narrative of "China Shock 2.0" is a politically constructed discourse that misrepresents China's rapid development as a threat, while ignoring the benefits and opportunities it brings to the global economy [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Performance and Innovation - China's high-tech manufacturing profits increased by 10% year-on-year from January to November 2025, outpacing the average growth of all industrial sectors by 9.9 percentage points [2]. - The growth in China's high-tech sector is attributed to a mature innovation ecosystem, a complete industrial chain, and a large pool of R&D personnel, rather than "unfair competition" [2]. Group 2: Contribution to Global Sustainability - China has become a core player in global clean energy deployment, with renewable energy capacity leading the world and contributing significantly to climate crisis mitigation [3]. - By providing affordable solar panels and batteries, China is helping developing countries reduce reliance on fossil fuels, establishing itself as a reliable source of clean technology products [3]. Group 3: Open Market and Foreign Investment - China is committed to high-level openness, expanding access in sectors like telecommunications and healthcare, and has seen significant foreign investment in high-tech industries, amounting to 221.26 billion RMB in the first 11 months of 2025 [4]. - The Belt and Road Initiative and international capacity cooperation are enhancing infrastructure in developing countries, reducing global logistics and transaction costs [4]. Group 4: Global Economic Relations - In response to the U.S. imposing tariffs on Chinese products, China has taken decisive countermeasures while also engaging in dialogue to maintain communication channels between the two largest economies [4]. - The narrative of "China Shock 2.0" reflects anxieties in some Western circles about their declining competitiveness, which leads to a misallocation of blame towards China instead of addressing internal economic issues [5].

Economic Overview - Hong Kong's GDP grew by 3.8% year-on-year in Q3 2025, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from Q2, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.7% [3][6] - Private consumption expenditure rose by 2.1% year-on-year in Q3 2025, up 0.2 percentage points from Q2 [3][8] - Local fixed capital formation increased by 4.3% year-on-year in Q3 2025, a rise of 2.4 percentage points from Q2, indicating a recovery in real estate-related investments [3][9] External Demand - Goods exports accelerated, with a year-on-year growth of 12.1% in Q3 2025, up 0.6 percentage points from Q2 [10] - Service exports grew by 6.3% year-on-year, but this was a decrease of 2.3 percentage points from Q2, primarily due to a slowdown in transportation and tourism services [11] Employment and Inflation - The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in Q3 2025, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from Q2, with notable rises in the consumption, real estate, and manufacturing sectors [13] - The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 1.1% year-on-year in Q3 2025, a decline of 0.7 percentage points from Q2, indicating moderate inflation [14] Financial Market - The Hong Kong dollar experienced fluctuations, initially weakening before strengthening due to interest rate differentials and capital inflows [16] - The benchmark interest rate was lowered in Q3 2025, while the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) rebounded significantly [18] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 11.6% in Q3 2025, continuing its upward trend, with average daily trading volume increasing by 20% compared to Q2 [21][25] Real Estate Market - The total transaction volume in Hong Kong's real estate market grew significantly, with new and second-hand home transactions increasing by 125% and 43% year-on-year, respectively [4][26] - Rental prices continued to rise, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3% in Q3 2025 [27] - The number of new housing starts and land auctions improved, signaling potential increases in housing supply [31][32] Banking Sector - The net interest margin for Hong Kong banks remained stable or slightly increased, outperforming expectations, with credit structure adjustments continuing [5][37] - Customer deposits grew at a rate of 2.4% in Q3 2025, although the growth rate for Hong Kong dollar deposits declined [38] - Asset quality remained stable, with non-performing loan ratios holding steady, while the commercial real estate sector showed signs of stabilization [45][47]

Group 1: Core Themes - The global situation in 2025 is characterized by four key terms: rare earths, regulation, tariffs, and bubbles, indicating a shift from traditional geopolitical competition to a complex interplay of technology, resources, and rules [1] Group 2: Rare Earths - Rare earths have become a focal point of strategic competition among major powers, essential for manufacturing electric vehicle batteries, electric motor magnets, wind turbines, and various electronic devices [2] - The security and resilience of the global rare earth supply chain have reached national security levels, prompting the U.S. government to initiate large-scale public investments to bolster domestic supply chains [2] - The EU has launched a resource autonomy plan aiming for a 10% self-sufficiency rate in mineral resources by the end of 2030, although establishing a complete and economically viable rare earth industry will take time [2] Group 3: Regulation Challenges - The "Brussels Effect," which describes the EU's ability to shape global standards through its regulatory power, faces significant challenges in 2025, revealing limitations in its ambition to be a global regulatory superpower [3] - Despite ongoing efforts in digital markets and data governance, the EU's regulatory ambitions must find a new balance with the realities of political and economic competition [3] Group 4: Tariff Policies - In April 2025, the U.S. announced new tariffs on imports, reaching the highest levels since the 1930s, aiming to reshape global trade rules and encourage manufacturing to return to the U.S. [4] - The implementation of these tariffs has not resulted in the expected return of manufacturing jobs, instead leading to increased domestic compensation costs and revealing the limitations of unilateral tariffs in a highly interconnected global economy [4] Group 5: AI Investment - In 2025, there was an unprecedented surge in global investment in artificial intelligence (AI), with total investments reaching $375 billion in just one year [5] - Major tech companies, including established firms and newcomers, are competing fiercely to dominate the AI sector, raising questions about whether this investment frenzy constitutes a "bubble" [5] - Governments are providing funding and regulatory support for the AI industry, viewing it as a core strategic asset, which complicates traditional assessments of investment bubbles based on profit valuations [5][6]

作为制造业重镇与全球大港，宁波正将金融"活水"精准引向科技创新与产业升级，在国家多项金融改革 试点的赋能下，构建起服务新质生产力发展的现代金融生态。日前，宁波市委金融办相关负责人在接受 中国证券报记者专访时表示，宁波金融系统正着力推动金融资源与实体经济特别是先进制造业、未来产 业高效融合，通过深化改革与创新服务，强化"耐心资本"供给，为区域经济高质量发展构筑坚实的资本 支撑。 ● 本报记者杨梓岩 畅通血脉：融资攻坚与直融扩围 服务实体经济，是宁波金融改革的出发点和落脚点。宁波市委金融办相关负责人指出，过去几年，宁波 金融系统着力构建"大金融"生态，核心目标就是破解融资难题，推动社会融资规模实现量质双升。 他介绍，针对重大项目融资的堵点，宁波借助"甬金通"等数字化平台开展"投融攻坚"，2025年上半年即 支持重大项目融资1460亿元，并靠前参与政策性金融工具申报。强有力的金融支持，使得制造业贷款增 量稳居浙江省首位，稳固了实体经济的根基。 在间接融资持续发力的同时，宁波大力拓展直接融资渠道，改变过度依赖银行的传统格局。"我们支持 优质企业通过上市、发债、并购重组等多元工具融资发展。"宁波市委金融办相关负责人表示 ...

1月5日，A股市场在2026年首个交易日迎来"开门红"行情。上证指数上涨1.38%，站上4000点，日线"十 二连阳"。当日市场成交放量，A股成交额为2.57万亿元，较前一个交易日增加5015亿元。A股总市值突 破120万亿元，再创历史新高。（详细报道见A09版） ● 本报记者 吴玉华 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - Private equity firms are focusing on long-term growth logic for 2026, with a consensus emerging around the AI wave transitioning from a "arms race" at the model level to a "blooming" application level [2] - The restructuring of global supply chains is benefiting Chinese manufacturing, which is leveraging hard technology to break through in this new environment [2] - The rebalancing of global asset allocation is expected to continue, with a reassessment of the value of Chinese assets ongoing [2] Group 2: AI Wave - AI remains a critical area for investment, with firms like Jinglin Asset emphasizing that companies lacking AI capabilities may be marginalized [3] - The AI sector, particularly in areas like autonomous driving and AI healthcare, is anticipated to present significant long-term opportunities in 2026 [3][4] - The proliferation of AI smartphones and AI glasses is expected, although challenges such as user privacy and technical issues need to be addressed [4] Group 3: Chinese Manufacturing - Chinese manufacturing is a key investment focus for private equity in 2026, with firms like Dushuquan highlighting the competitive edge of Chinese manufacturers in the global market [5] - The export performance of Chinese manufacturing in 2025 exceeded market expectations, indicating strong competitiveness in various sectors [5] - The potential for Chinese manufacturers to apply domestic management experience abroad is seen as a long-term growth strategy [5] Group 4: Global Asset Allocation Rebalancing - There is a noticeable shift among international institutional investors towards increasing allocations to Chinese assets, driven by a recognition of China's competitive strengths [6] - The Chinese stock market is transitioning from a cautious investment perception to one viewed as having strategic allocation value [6] Group 5: Incremental Capital - The reallocation of assets by residents and institutions is expected to support structural market trends in 2026, with high-net-worth individuals and insurance funds leading this shift [7] - A significant amount of long-term deposits accumulated since 2022 is expected to flow into the stock market through various channels, providing substantial incremental capital [7] - The demand for equity asset allocation is recovering, supported by a low-interest-rate environment, which is likely to enhance market liquidity [7]

一是以政务环境"优"促运转高效。汕头以"能取消的取消、能下放的下放、能上网的上网、能秒批的秒 批"为原则，深化综合审批制度改革，在简政放权、数字赋能、服务升级三方面取得积极成效。简政放 权方面，累计形成三批免提交清单，涉及211项政务服务事项、290项证明材料；争取7项省级行政职权 由南澳县实施，进一步便利基层企业。数字赋能方面，实现高频政务服务事项全流程网办275项、跨域 通办事项超1500项；推出119项"秒报"和40项"秒批"服务，大幅提升办事效率。服务升级方面，创新推 出"新办纳税人开业"等11项本地"特色一件事"，上线23项"高效办成一件事"服务；12345热线涉企诉求 按时办结率100%，满意率达99.63%。提供重点项目代办服务，实现功能区和产业园区全覆盖。 二是以市场环境"好"助安商惠商。汕头聚焦企业关切，多措并举降低经营成本、激发市场活力。降本减 负方面，全市新发放贷款加权平均利率同比下降0.69个百分点，为企业节约利息成本4.02亿元；"汕金惠 企通"平台撮合融资197.2亿元，承保金额26.63亿元。便利准入方面，全面落实市场准入负面清单制度， 在2024年省效能评估中获评"优秀"。优化 ...

围绕关税政策的法律争议，预计将在2026年初迎来关键节点。美国最高法院将就特朗普征收关税所依据 的法律前提作出裁决。根据耶鲁大学预算实验室的测算，相关政策已将美国进口商品的平均关税水平从 特朗普今年1月重返白宫前的不足3%，推高至接近17%。最高法院在去年11月的相关听证中已对这一做 法表示质疑，市场因此猜测，若裁决不利于特朗普，关税政策可能被推翻，并迫使其转向其他贸易手 段，从而带来新的不确定性。 尽管制造业持续萎缩，ISM指出，PMI仍高于42.3这一长期来看与整体经济扩张相一致的水平。宏观层 面，美国经济在第三季度以年化4.3%的速度高于趋势水平增长。虽然创纪录时长的政府停摆预计对第 四季度经济活动造成拖累，多数经济学家仍预计，随着减税政策效应释放以及人工智能投资持续升温， 美国经济有望在2026年重新加速。 不过，除受AI热潮提振的少数领域外，特朗普政府大规模加征进口关税对制造业形成明显压制。尽管 特朗普将关税视为重振长期衰退的美国制造业基础的必要手段，经济学家普遍认为，受制于劳动力短缺 等结构性问题，制造业难以恢复到昔日规模。 周一，美国制造业在2025年12月的收缩幅度超出市场预期，低迷态势已连续 ...

2026年伊始，多地密集举办"新年第一会"，成为观察区域经济和产业发展走向的重要窗口。 2026年1月4日，2026年新年第一个工作日，上海市召开2026年全市优化营商环境大会，并对外发布了《上海市加快打造国际一流营 商环境行动方案（2026年）》。据悉，这一大会往年均选择在农历春节后召开，但今年提前至阳历元旦后召开。 《中国经营报》记者注意到，江苏省南京市、苏州市和浙江省嘉兴市等地召开的"新年第一会"，则聚焦科技创新与产业发展。例 如，软件产业发达的南京市重点聚焦AI产业，将深入推进"人工智能+"行动。 "在长三角地区，多地聚焦营商环境优化、产业升级、科技创新等主题，这是扛起经济大省挑大梁使命责任、打造新质生产力发展策 源地的战略担当，也是应对当前全球科技革命和产业变革加速迭代、破解自身发展瓶颈的现实选择。"江苏省城市经济学会副会长、 南京信息工程大学江北新区（自贸区）发展研究院院长丁宏向记者表示。 打响营商环境"攻坚战" 锚定建设"五个中心"目标的上海市，在2026年"新年第一会"上发出了打响营商环境"攻坚战"的"最强音"。 （2026年1月4日，上海市召开2026年全市优化营商环境大会。图片来源：上海发 ...

The Institute for Supply Management said that its purchasing managers index of manufacturing activity fell to 47.9 in the month, compared with 48.2 in November. ...