Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange have drafted the "Interbank Foreign Exchange Market Management Regulations (Draft for Comments)" to enhance regulation and promote the foreign exchange market's service to the real economy [1] Group 1: Regulatory Enhancements - The draft aims to improve the management and service capabilities of foreign exchange market infrastructure [1] - It specifies the responsibilities, collaboration mechanisms, abnormal handling, and information reporting requirements for interbank foreign exchange market infrastructure [1] - The infrastructure is tasked with managing trading and clearing qualifications and fulfilling supervisory responsibilities [1] Group 2: Market Development - The draft emphasizes the need to enhance the forward-looking nature of foreign exchange market management [1] - It proposes to continuously enrich trading varieties and currencies based on market demand, providing data services according to market principles [1] - The regulations aim to standardize the behavior of financial information service providers in distributing data [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - No explicit core viewpoints are presented in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: On August 21, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields in the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.329, 4.729, 3.461 respectively. The latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes varied across countries. For example, the US had a latest change of 0.037, a weekly change of 0.043, a monthly change of - 0.069, and an annual change of 0.485 [3] - **2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: On August 21, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields in the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.750, 3.966, 1.969 respectively. The latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes also differed. For instance, the US had a latest change of - 0.020, a weekly change of 0.030, a monthly change of 0.030, and an annual change of - 0.300 [3] - **Exchange Rates of the US Dollar against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: On August 21, 2025, the exchange rates against the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, South African rand, etc. were 5.476, - (not available), 17.718 respectively. The latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes showed different trends. For example, against the Brazilian real, the latest change was - 0.12%, the weekly change was 1.08%, the monthly change was - 0.81%, and the annual change was 0.37% [3] - **Stock Indices of Major Economies**: On August 21, 2025, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ, etc. had values of 6370.170, 44785.500, 21100.310 respectively. The latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes varied. For example, the Dow Jones had a latest change of - 0.40%, a weekly change of - 1.52%, a monthly change of 17.22%, and an annual change not fully shown [3] - **Credit Bond Indices**: The emerging economies' investment - grade and high - yield credit bond indices, US investment - grade and high - yield credit bond indices, and euro - zone investment - grade and high - yield credit bond indices had different latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes. For example, the emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of - 0.26%, a weekly change of - 0.27%, a monthly change of 1.00%, and an annual change of 3.91% [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The A - share, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 had closing prices of 3771.10, 4288.07, 2862.18, 2595.47, and 6704.17 respectively on the reporting date, with corresponding percentage changes in price [5] - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were 13.73, 11.71, 32.02, 27.00, and 20.07 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [5] - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium of S&P 500 and German DAX were - 0.63 and 2.23 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [5] - **Fund Flow**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flow in A - shares, main board, small and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were presented. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was - 1351.53, and the 5 - day average was - 312.50 [5] - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - cap board, and ChiNext were given. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 24240.57, with a环比 change of 158.23 [5] - **Main Contract Premium or Discount**: The basis and percentage of basis for IF, IH, and IC were - 5.87 (- 0.14%), 3.22 (0.11%), and - 47.77 (- 0.71%) respectively [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.000, 105.500, 107.875, and 105.450 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes in price [6] - The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M had values of 1.5143%, 1.5356%, and 1.5500% respectively, with daily changes in basis points [6]

Group 1: Price Performance - The latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, WTI Crude Oil, and LME Copper are 3344.65, 37.08, 1347.00, 1127.00, 62.71, and 9699.00 respectively, with changes of 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, and -11.00 [2] - The latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, US Dollar to Japanese Yen, and US 10 - year TIPS are 98.24, 1.17, 1.35, 147.31, and 1.94 respectively, with changes of 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00 [2] Group 2: Trading Data - The latest COMEX silver inventory is 15816.09 with no change, the latest SHFE silver inventory is 1115.06 with a change of -25.14, the latest gold ETF holding is 958.21 with no change, the latest silver ETF holding is 15305.76 with no change, the latest SGE silver inventory is 1368.95 with no change, the SGE silver deferred - fee payment direction is 1, and the SGE gold deferred - fee payment direction is 2 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the performance data of global asset markets on August 19, 2025, including major economies' 10 - year and 2 - year treasury bond yields, dollar exchange rates against major emerging economies' currencies, major economies' stock indices, stock futures trading data, and treasury futures trading data [3][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **Treasury Bond Yields**: - **10 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: On August 19, 2025, the 10 - year treasury bond yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.307%, 4.739%, 3.435% respectively. The latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes varied across different economies. For example, the US had a latest change of - 0.027, a weekly change of 0.016, a monthly change of - 0.039, and a yearly change of 0.366 [3] - **2 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: The 2 - year treasury bond yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.750%, 3.975%, 1.955% respectively on August 19, 2025. Their latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes also differed. For instance, the US had a latest change of 0.010, a weekly change of - 0.010, a monthly change of 0.060, and a yearly change of - 0.250 [3] - **Exchange Rates**: - **Dollar against Emerging Economies' Currencies**: On August 19, 2025, the dollar - to - Brazilian real exchange rate was 5.506, with a latest change of 1.28% and a weekly change of 2.17%. The exchange rates and their changes against other emerging economies' currencies also varied [3] - **Renminbi**: The on - shore, off - shore, mid - price, and 12 - month NDF of the renminbi on August 19, 2025 were 7.182, 7.187, 7.136, and 7.026 respectively, with different latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes [3] - **Stock Indices**: - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: On August 19, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ were 6411.370, 44922.270, and 21314.950 respectively. Their latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes were different. For example, the S&P 500 had a latest change of - 0.59%, a weekly change of - 0.53%, a monthly change of 1.61%, and a yearly change of 19.97% [3] - **Other Stock Indices**: The performance of other stock indices such as the Nikkei, Hang Seng Index, and Shanghai Composite Index also had their own characteristics in terms of latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes [3] Stock Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3727.29, 4223.37, 2812.42 respectively on August 19, 2025, with corresponding percentage changes [5] - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 13.53, 11.50, and 31.78 respectively, with their respective环比 changes [5] - **Fund Flow**: The latest values of fund flow for A - shares, the main board, etc. were - 1132.47, - 717.50 respectively, and the 5 - day average values also varied [5] - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were 25883.69, 5535.36 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [5] - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC were - 7.17, 2.98, - 55.31 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [5] Treasury Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Percentage Changes**: The closing prices of treasury futures T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 108.055, 105.540, 107.950, 105.475 respectively on August 19, 2025, with percentage changes of - 0.26%, - 0.19%, - 0.30%, - 0.27% respectively [6] - **Funding Rates**: The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.5473%, 1.5581%, 1.5500% respectively, with daily changes of 5.00BP, 6.00BP, 0.00BP respectively [6]

来源：智昇财论 黄金方面：美国与俄罗斯的初步谈判已经结束，与市场预期基本一致，根本矛盾使得双方的谈判并未取 得实质性成果。双方实际谈判时间远超预期的5-6小时，随后俄罗斯总统快速离开，表明了对美国的不 信任，同时传递出信息：不愿按照美国的节奏行事。 原油方面：隔夜油价整体以震荡为主，多头虽有反击但力度较弱，操作上建议顺势高空为主。目前原油 基本面持续恶化，供需矛盾突出，在此背景下，油价很可能长期疲弱。 原油供应增加的预期也加大了油价的下行压力，美国能源信息署发布的月度短观能源展望报告显示，由 于油井生产率的提高，2025年美国页岩油产量将达到创纪录的1341万桶/日，较此前预期上调4万桶。此 外，OPEC月报显示，OPEC+7月原油产量增加33.5万桶至4194万桶/日，但该产量增长幅度低于此前 OPEC+8国达成的产量恢复协议。库存方面，美国原油库存增加也利空油价，EIA数据显示，截至8月8 日当周，包括战略储备在内的美国原油库存总量较一周前增加326.3万桶至8.299亿桶，美国商业原油库 存量较一周前增加303.7万桶至4.26698亿桶。 技术面：原油日线有冲击长期均线的动作，但明显上攻动能较弱，长期 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields**: On August 18, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields in the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.334%, 4.737%, 3.447% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.033 (Italy) to 0.041 (UK), weekly changes from - 0.004 (Japan) to 0.173 (UK), monthly changes from - 0.126 (Switzerland) to 0.155 (France), and annual changes from - 0.274 (Japan) to 0.760 (UK) [2]. - **2 - Year Treasury Yields**: On August 18, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields in the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.740%, 3.959%, 1.956% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.024 (Australia) to 0.070 (US), weekly changes from - 0.200 (US) to 0.186 (Italy), monthly changes from - 0.703 (Italy) to 0.553 (Japan), and annual changes showed various trends [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: On August 18, 2025, the US dollar - to - emerging - economy currency exchange rates such as South African rand, Brazilian real, etc. had different values. The latest changes ranged from - 0.69% (Russian ruble) to 0.65% (South African rand), weekly changes from - 2.35% (South African rand) to 0.38% (South Korean won), monthly changes from - 8.22% (Thai baht) to 0.77% (South Korean won), and annual changes also varied [2]. - **Stock Indices**: On August 18, 2025, major global stock indices like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, etc. had different closing values. The latest changes ranged from - 0.50% (Mexican index) to 0.21% (Nasdaq), weekly changes from - 0.18% (UK index) to 8.70% (Spanish index), monthly changes from 8.78% (Mexican index) to 44.46% (Spanish index), and annual changes also showed different trends [2]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The latest changes in credit bond indices ranged from - 0.08% to 0.08%, weekly changes from - 0.06% to 0.56%, monthly changes from - 0.13% to 2.43%, and annual changes from 4.84% to 15.88% [2][3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were 3728.03, 4239.41, 2838.87, 2606.20, and 6668.17 respectively, with daily changes of 0.85%, 0.88%, 0.21%, 2.84%, and 1.52% [4]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were 13.54, 11.56, 31.94, 27.34, and 20.08 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.08, 0.04, 0.37, 0.00, and - 0.04 [4]. - **Risk Premium**: The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 and German DAX were - 0.68 and 2.22 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.02 and 0.04 [4]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest values of fund flows in A - shares, main board, SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were 78.73, - 179.13, N/A, 216.70, and 110.91 respectively, and the 5 - day average values were - 306.54, - 333.88, N/A, 26.76, and 51.22 [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, SME board, and ChiNext were 27641.63, 6353.66, 1621.58, 5485.68, and 8295.86 respectively, with环比 changes of 5195.51, 1166.79, 199.53, 1082.87, and 1773.47 [4]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC were - 1.61, 9.53, and - 60.17 respectively, with basis ratios of - 0.04%, 0.34%, and - 0.90% [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices**: The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.015, 105.455, 107.865, and 105.380 respectively, with daily changes of 0.00% [5]. - **Funding Rates**: The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.5037%, 1.5030%, and 1.5490% respectively, with daily changes of 1.00 BP, 1.00 BP, and 0.00 BP [5]

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China has maintained stable operations despite increased volatility in the international currency market, with a notable rebound and subsequent decline in the US dollar index [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In July, the scale of bank foreign exchange settlement and sales increased by 12% and 16% respectively, continuing a surplus trend with a total scale of 22.8 billion USD [1] - The exchange rate for enterprises and individuals showed a slight increase in settlement rates while the sales rates remained stable, indicating stable market expectations and active trading [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - Cross-border income and expenditure for non-bank sectors reached historical highs in July, with a balanced revenue and expenditure [1] - Net inflow of funds from goods trade increased by 33% month-on-month, maintaining a high level, while net outflows from service trade and investment income rose by 34% and 7% respectively, attributed to seasonal factors such as summer travel and corporate dividend payouts [1] Group 3: Economic Context - The steady progress of high-quality economic development in China, along with the increasing resilience of the foreign exchange market, is expected to provide strong support for the stable operation of the foreign exchange market [1]

Group 1 - In July, banks in China settled foreign exchange transactions amounting to 16,700 billion yuan and sold 15,070 billion yuan, indicating a continued surplus in foreign exchange settlement and sales [1] - For the first seven months of the year, banks cumulatively settled 98,835 billion yuan and sold 99,020 billion yuan, with total foreign exchange income at 326,705 billion yuan and payments at 318,116 billion yuan [1] - The foreign exchange market in China has remained stable, with a slight increase in the settlement rate and a stable sales rate, reflecting a stable market expectation and active trading [1] Group 2 - In July, the net inflow of funds from goods trade increased by 33%, maintaining a high level, while net outflows from service trade and investment income rose by 34% and 7% respectively, primarily due to seasonal factors such as summer travel and corporate dividend payments [1] - The international foreign exchange market has experienced increased volatility, with the dollar index rebounding and then retreating, leading to adjustments in non-dollar currencies [1] - The cross-border capital flow has remained generally stable, with non-bank sectors' cross-border income and expenditure at historically high levels, indicating a balanced income and expenditure situation [1]

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China showed a robust performance in July, with a settlement surplus of 22.8 billion USD, indicating market resilience and stability [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Performance - In July, banks settled 233.6 billion USD and sold 210.8 billion USD, resulting in a settlement surplus of 22.8 billion USD [1] - The settlement and sales volumes increased by 12% and 16% respectively compared to the previous month, maintaining a surplus trend [3] - The cross-border income and expenditure of non-bank sectors reached historical highs, reflecting a balanced state of receipts and payments [5] Group 2: Market Expectations - Market participants exhibited rational behavior, with a slight increase in settlement willingness and stable sales willingness, supporting stable market expectations [4] - The active trading environment indicates enhanced confidence among various market participants despite increased volatility in the international foreign exchange market [4] Group 3: Cross-Border Capital Flows - The cross-border capital flow remained stable, with a slight deficit of 0.077 billion USD in July, indicating no significant inflow or outflow [5] - The net inflow from goods trade increased by 33% month-on-month, showcasing strong performance in foreign trade and improved international competitiveness [5] - Cumulative surplus of 119.5 billion USD in cross-border receipts and payments over the first seven months further confirms the stability and sustainability of capital flows [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting stance of the Federal Reserve from a hawkish to a dovish approach, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts, which could significantly impact the foreign exchange market and create opportunities for non-USD currencies [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Shift - The Federal Reserve is transitioning from a high interest rate environment aimed at controlling inflation to signaling potential interest rate cuts, with futures markets indicating nearly an 80% probability of a rate cut in September and possibly two 25 basis point cuts within the year [2][5]. - The shift from hawkish to dovish policy is expected to weaken the dollar's high-interest rate advantage, leading to downward pressure on its value [2][3]. Group 2: Impact on Non-USD Currencies - Major non-USD currencies such as the Euro, British Pound, and Japanese Yen are gaining momentum against the dollar as the latter's appeal diminishes [3][4]. - Emerging market currencies are experiencing relief as financing pressures ease alongside the weakening dollar, allowing for a temporary recovery in their exchange rates [4]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Strategy 1 involves trend-following by focusing on long positions in major non-USD currency pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD, with specific technical levels identified for entry and exit [5][6]. - Strategy 2 suggests a carry trade approach, where traders go long on high-yield currencies (e.g., Mexican Peso, New Zealand Dollar) while shorting currencies expected to face rate cuts [7]. - Strategy 3 emphasizes volatility trading around key economic data releases and Federal Reserve announcements, which are likely to cause significant price movements [9][10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Risk Management - The article highlights that a weak dollar does not guarantee a linear decline, as market corrections and geopolitical events may lead to temporary rebounds [11]. - It stresses the importance of independent assessments of currency strength based on central bank policies and economic fundamentals, along with strict risk management practices [11].