Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in October but gave a hawkish hint, with uncertainty about December rate - cut and the Fed's access to official data due to government shutdown and the expected announcement of the next Fed chair by Trump [2] - The 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded after breaking below 4%, and caution is needed when it breaks below this level due to uncertainty in US tariff policy and fiscal balance [2] - The cooling trend in the US employment market is difficult to change, and high - interest rates may suppress the employment market and macro - economy, especially if it impacts the real estate market [2] - The US government shutdown may end in November. After that, the rate - cut process can continue, and November's consumption and inflation data may clarify the trend of the US Treasury market [2] - The producer price index has rebounded, with various commodity prices showing different trends in the week of November 1, 2025 [2] Summary by Directory High - Frequency Data Scanning - **Sino - US Leaders' Meeting**: On October 30, Sino - US leaders agreed to strengthen cooperation in economy, trade, energy and promote cultural exchanges [2] - **Fed's Interest - Rate Cut and Hints**: The Fed cut rates by 25BP in October. Powell said December rate - cut is not certain, and there is strong internal disagreement. Uncertainty exists in the amount of official data the Fed can receive due to government shutdown, and the market may have concerns about Powell's conservatism at the end of his term [2] - **US Treasury Yield Movement**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded after breaking below 4% following the Fed's hawkish rate - cut. Caution is needed when it breaks below 4% due to uncertainties in tariff policy and fiscal balance [2] - **US Employment Market Situation**: The cooling trend in the US employment market is difficult to change. The 9 - month non - farm employment data is not released, and the ADP private non - farm employment growth rate declined with a net loss of 32,000 jobs in September. The government shutdown impacts federal government employment, and it's hard to change the overall non - farm employment situation [2] - **US Government Shutdown Outlook**: The shutdown may end in November. After that, the rate - cut process can continue. November's consumption and inflation data may clarify the US Treasury market trend [2] - **Price Index Changes**: In the week of November 1, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork increased 1.46% week - on - week and decreased 27.10% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables increased 8.09% week - on - week and 3.83% year - on - year. The producer price index increased 0.40% week - on - week and decreased 4.27% year - on - year [2] High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scanning - **High - Frequency Data and Key Macro - Indicator Trends Comparison**: Multiple charts show the relationship between high - frequency data such as copper prices, steel production, and key macro - indicators like industrial added value, PPI, and export volume [18][20][29] - **Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe**: Charts display the relationship between US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, same - store sales growth, and economic growth, inflation, and financial conditions, as well as the implied interest - rate adjustment prospects of the US and the Eurozone [86][88][97] - **Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data**: Charts show the seasonal trends of high - frequency data such as steel production, producer price index, and real estate - related data [99][103][109] - **High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen**: Charts present the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in these four cities [153][156]

Core Viewpoint - Daqing Oilfield has successfully implemented cable-controlled intelligent layered water injection technology, achieving a qualified rate of over 92% for experimental water wells, addressing issues of long operation time and low efficiency in conventional single-well measurement and adjustment [1][2]. Group 1: Technology Development - The cable-controlled intelligent layered water injection technology utilizes cables as power and communication carriers for downhole water distribution devices, enabling continuous monitoring and adjustment of water injection in different layers [2]. - This technology allows for remote monitoring of water injection flow, temperature, and pressure, facilitating dynamic adjustments to optimize water distribution and improve oil recovery [2]. Group 2: Historical Context - Daqing Oilfield developed China's first hydraulic pressure differential packer in the 1960s to meet the needs of water injection development, marking a significant advancement in layered water injection technology [1]. - The oilfield has since developed multiple generations of layered water injection technologies, supporting high and stable production at different stages of oilfield development [1]. Group 3: Implementation and Impact - A project team has been established to promote the large-scale application of the cable-controlled intelligent layered water injection technology, with 83 water wells in Daqing Oilfield's production plant already implemented [2]. - The technology not only ensures a high qualified rate for layered water injection but also reduces the workload for verification and sealing measurements, providing substantial data support for reservoir analysis and evaluation [2].

Group 1 - The public fund industry is undergoing significant changes to address issues like investment style drift and misleading product names, with new regulations aimed at ensuring performance benchmarks effectively guide investment behavior and link directly to fund manager compensation [3] - As of the end of Q3, insurance institutions held over 650 billion yuan in A-shares, with a 14% increase in shareholding compared to Q2, and financial stocks making up nearly 50% of their total holdings [5] - The gold trading tax policy has been refined, marking a step towards a more detailed and standardized tax system for gold transactions, which is expected to primarily impact production, processing, and trading companies [6][7] Group 2 - The storage chip sector is entering a "golden age," driven by AI infrastructure and HBM technology, with demand shifting from personal consumption to enterprise-level AI capital expenditures [12] - The ETF market has seen explosive growth, with an increase of over 2 trillion yuan in scale within 10 months, highlighting its importance as a tool for market entry [13] - Agricultural Bank of China reported a net profit of 222.3 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a 3.28% year-on-year growth, and its stock price has been on the rise, positioning it as a leader in A-share market capitalization [17]

Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited significant structural differentiation last week, with the Every Day Brand 100 Index declining by 1.48% to close at 1204.11 points, influenced by a pullback in technology stocks and pressure from the Hong Kong market [2] - Despite this, the market is expected to maintain a slow bull trend due to supportive policies and liquidity easing [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.5%, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index fell by 3.19% [2] Company Performance - Weichai Power reported strong performance, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in revenue to 170.57 billion yuan and a 5.7% rise in net profit to 8.88 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [5] - In Q3 alone, Weichai Power achieved a revenue of 57.42 billion yuan, up 16.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.23 billion yuan, marking a 29.5% increase, both being the best results for the same period historically [5] - The company is focusing on strategic emerging business breakthroughs while consolidating its traditional advantages, leading to improved profitability and a collaborative development model [5][6] Industry Insights - Weichai Power is a leading manufacturer of large-bore diesel engines, with significant investments in R&D and market expansion, making its products globally competitive [6] - The demand for large-bore diesel engines is increasing, particularly as they serve as important backup power sources for AI data centers, which are rapidly developing due to ongoing investments in AI infrastructure [6] - The M-series large-bore engines saw sales exceed 5,000 units in the first half of the year, a 41% increase year-on-year, with data center market sales approaching 600 units, reflecting a nearly fivefold increase [6] - The company anticipates continued high growth in this business segment, with substantial year-on-year increases in revenue and profit contributions [6]

Core Insights - The current job market is experiencing significant challenges, with many companies adopting a "hiring freeze" while also not laying off employees, leading to a stagnation in job creation [2] - Rising operational costs, including new tariffs and shifts in consumer spending, are cited as reasons for this trend, alongside broader corporate restructuring efforts [2] - The shift towards investment in artificial intelligence is seen as a factor that may lead to job losses, as companies prioritize infrastructure over hiring [2] Employment Market Dynamics - Federal employees face increased uncertainty due to job cuts and government shutdowns, impacting overall worker sentiment in the job market [3] - The government has paused official hiring data releases during the shutdown, but a survey indicated a surprising loss of 32,000 private sector jobs in September [4] Company-Specific Layoffs - Amazon announced a reduction of approximately 14,000 corporate positions, nearly 4% of its total workforce, as it shifts focus towards AI investments [5] - UPS has cut around 34,000 jobs as part of its business turnaround efforts, exceeding earlier predictions of 20,000 layoffs [6] - Target plans to eliminate about 1,800 corporate positions, representing 8% of its global corporate workforce, to streamline operations [7] - Nestlé is set to cut 16,000 jobs globally over the next two years as part of a cost-cutting initiative amid rising commodity costs [8] - Lufthansa Group plans to reduce 4,000 jobs by 2030, primarily in administrative roles, despite strong demand for air travel [9] - Novo Nordisk announced a layoff of 9,000 employees, about 11% of its workforce, as part of a broader restructuring effort [10] - ConocoPhillips plans to cut up to 25% of its workforce, affecting approximately 2,600 to 3,250 employees by the end of 2025 [11] - Intel is reducing thousands of jobs as it seeks to revitalize its business, with a target of reducing its core workforce to 75,000 by year-end [12][13] - Microsoft initiated layoffs affecting 15,000 employees, marking its largest job cuts in over two years, as it undergoes organizational changes [14][15] - Procter & Gamble plans to cut up to 7,000 jobs, about 6% of its global workforce, as part of a restructuring amid tariff pressures [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the company Zhongman Petroleum (603619.SH) is rated as "Buy" by Xinda Securities due to various factors affecting its performance [1] Group 2 - In Q3, the company's profit decreased year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in international oil prices and an increase in financial expenses [1] - However, Q3 profit showed improvement compared to Q2, attributed to a recovery in oil prices, increased production from domestic and overseas projects, and a reduction in management expenses [1] - The overseas Kenko oilfield continues to see increased production [1] - New overseas projects are progressing steadily [1]

Core Insights - The total number of oil drilling rigs in the United States as of the week ending October 31 is 414, a decrease from the previous count of 420 [1] Industry Summary - The current count of 414 oil drilling rigs indicates a decline in drilling activity, which may reflect changes in market conditions or oil prices [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhongman Petroleum (603619.SH) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that in Q3 2025, Zhongman Petroleum's revenue decreased by 2.18% year-on-year to 2.985 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 32.18% to 453 million yuan. The basic earnings per share (EPS) was 0.98 yuan, down 41.32% year-on-year [1][2] - The report notes that Q3 profits improved sequentially compared to Q2, primarily due to a slight increase in oil prices and an increase in production from domestic and overseas projects [4] - The overseas projects are progressing steadily, with significant production increases expected to positively impact future operating performance [4] Financial Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported a single-quarter revenue of 1.003 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.44% and a sequential decrease of 3.31%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for the quarter was 153 million yuan, down 36.38% year-on-year but up 117% sequentially [2] - The report provides financial forecasts for 2025-2027, predicting net profits of 596 million yuan, 733 million yuan, and 987 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -17.9%, +23.0%, and +34.6% respectively. The EPS for these years is projected to be 1.29 yuan, 1.59 yuan, and 2.13 yuan [4][5] - The report also includes key financial metrics such as a projected P/E ratio of 16.26 for 2025 and a P/B ratio of 2.17 [5][7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - As of the close on October 31, most domestic futures main contracts declined, with polysilicon and precious metals rising, and lithium carbonate and some industrial products falling. The capital flow shows significant inflows into polysilicon and soybean meal, and large outflows from copper and gold futures. Different varieties have different market conditions due to factors such as supply - demand, cost, and macro - policies [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of October 31, domestic futures main contracts mostly fell. Polysilicon rose over 2%, and silver, soybean meal, and gold futures rose over 1%. Lithium carbonate fell over 3%, and many other commodities like 20 - rubber and methanol fell over 2%. In stock index futures, IF, IH, and IC declined, while IM rose slightly. In bond futures, 2 - year and 5 - year contracts fell slightly, and 10 - year and 30 - year contracts rose [6][7]. - In terms of capital flow, polysilicon 2601, soybean meal 2601, and PVC2601 had capital inflows, while copper 2512, gold 2512, and CSI 1000 2512 had large outflows [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis of Specific Varieties - **Copper**: The Fed's reduced probability of a December rate cut and a stronger dollar suppress copper prices. Although the supply of copper concentrates is tight due to overseas mine accidents, high copper prices have curbed downstream demand. In the long - term, copper prices remain strong due to tight supply - demand [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate decreased during the day. The cost of lithium ore supports the price, and both supply and demand are strong. However, today's market was affected by news, and attention should be paid to the authenticity of the news [11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + plans to increase production, the demand peak season has ended, and the market is worried about demand. Although the US sanctions on Russian oil companies may limit exports, the overall supply is still in excess, and the price is expected to fluctuate [12][14]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is expected to decrease in November. The downstream demand has increased, and the inventory is at a low level. Considering the impact of crude oil price fluctuations, it is recommended to observe the asphalt futures price cautiously [15]. - **PP**: The downstream and enterprise operating rates are at a low level. The cost is affected by crude oil, and the demand is less than expected. PP is expected to fluctuate weakly [16][17]. - **Plastic**: The operating rate has increased slightly, and the downstream demand is in the peak season but less than expected. The cost is affected by crude oil, and plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly [18]. - **PVC**: The supply and downstream operating rates have increased. Exports are expected to weaken, and the inventory is still high. The real - estate market is still adjusting, and PVC is expected to fluctuate [20]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply is tight, and the inventory is being transferred downward. Although the downstream demand has decreased, the winter - storage demand will be released, and coking coal remains strong [21][22]. - **Urea**: The supply is high, and the cost is supported by coal prices. The demand has improved slightly, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [23].

Core Insights - On October 31, 2025, Alibaba-W (09988), SMIC (00981), and Tencent Holdings (00700) ranked as the top three companies by trading volume in the southbound trading of the Stock Connect, with trading volumes of 58.52 billion, 43.31 billion, and 30.98 billion respectively [1][2] - In the southbound trading of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Alibaba-W (09988), SMIC (00981), and Tencent Holdings (00700) also held the top three positions, with trading volumes of 43.07 billion, 28.25 billion, and 26.32 billion respectively [1][2] Southbound Trading Highlights - **Top Active Companies in Southbound Trading (Hong Kong Stock Connect)** - Alibaba-W (09988): Trading amount of 58.52 billion, net buy of -4.81 billion [2] - SMIC (00981): Trading amount of 43.31 billion, net buy of -78.06 million [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700): Trading amount of 30.98 billion, net buy of -1.72 billion [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810): Trading amount of 19.39 billion, net buy of +5.56 billion [2] - Huahong Semiconductor (01347): Trading amount of 18.61 billion, net buy of -1.67 billion [2] - **Top Active Companies in Southbound Trading (Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect)** - Alibaba-W (09988): Trading amount of 43.07 billion, net buy of +1.15 billion [2] - SMIC (00981): Trading amount of 28.25 billion, net buy of -6.34 billion [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700): Trading amount of 26.32 billion, net buy of -10.47 billion [2] - Huahong Semiconductor (01347): Trading amount of 11.90 billion, net buy of -3.07 billion [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810): Trading amount of 11.13 billion, net buy of +904.39 million [2]