文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 景气向上 1 、外贸：港口集装箱吞吐量同比维持高位。 截至 11 月 30 日，我国港口集装箱吞吐量环比 -0.3% ，上周环比为 +5.4% ，四周同比微幅回落至 9.6% ，上周为 10% ， 10 月 26 日四周同比 为 6.6% 。 2 、耐用品消费：乘用车零售周度增速转正，但月度增速转负。 截至 11 月 30 日当周，乘用车零售 同比增速 +2% ，前值 -7% 。乘联分会发布初步统计数据， 11 月全国乘用车市场零售同比 -7% 。 10 月全月同比为 +5.8% 。 3 、地产：住宅销售降幅缩窄，二手房价格暂时止跌。 我们统计的 67 个城市， 12 月前 5 日，商品 房成交面积同比为 -26% 。 11 月同比为 -34% 。 10 月同比为 -26% 。 11 月 24 日当周，二手 房挂牌价，一线和全国均持平。今年以来，一线城市二手房挂牌价累计下跌 5.1% ，全国累计下跌 5.5% 。 4 、价格：国内外大宗品价格普涨，农产品价格普涨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report As of December 8, 2025, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like live pigs, low-sulfur fuel oil, and Shanghai silver rose over 2%, while others such as coking coal and coke declined significantly. Different commodities have different market trends and influencing factors, with some showing short - term risks and others having long - term upward potential [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - As of the close on December 8, domestic futures main contracts had mixed results. Live pigs, low - sulfur fuel oil, and Shanghai silver rose over 2%, while coking coal fell over 6% and coke fell over 5%. In the stock index futures, the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM all rose, and in the bond futures, the performance varied [5][6]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Copper**: The CSPT announced a joint production cut of over 10% in 2026. The price of Shanghai copper has been rising due to factors such as the increase in LME cancelled warrants, the anti - internal competition in the domestic copper industry, and the expected Fed rate cut. The supply is tight, and the downstream has some resilience. However, the downstream's ability to accept the price is insufficient after continuous price increases, so short - term small corrections should be watched out, and it is bullish in the long - term [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Although CATL did not resume production as scheduled on December 5, the upstream production capacity is increasing. The production in November continued to rise, but the growth rate slowed down in December. The downstream demand has slowed down and is differentiated. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [10]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ agreed to maintain the overall oil production in 2026. The end of the consumption peak season, concerns about demand, and continuous production increase have led to an oversupply situation. However, due to factors such as the difficulty of reaching a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine and the Fed's expected rate cut, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [11][13]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is decreasing, and the downstream demand is general. The price of crude oil is oscillating at a low level. The start - up rate of asphalt will increase slightly, but the demand will weaken further. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate weakly [14]. - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate is at a low level, and the supply is increasing. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The start - up rate has increased slightly, but the downstream demand is weakening. The supply is increasing, and the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17]. - **PVC**: The start - up rate has decreased slightly, the downstream demand is poor, and the inventory is high. Although there are some policy boosts, it is expected to oscillate weakly [19]. - **Coking Coal**: The price dropped by over 6%. The supply is under pressure from imported coal, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory transfer is difficult, and it is expected to remain weak in the short - term [20][21]. - **Urea**: The price dropped on Monday. The supply pressure is relieved due to the shutdown of gas - fired devices, and the demand for winter storage and other aspects still exists. It is difficult for the price to drop significantly, and caution is needed in trading [22].

大庆杏南开发区创新 "梯度治理" 模式 破解套外漏井修复难题 中新网大庆12月8日电 (裴宇)油水井套管腐蚀破漏难题有了新解法！8日，记者从大庆油田采油五厂获 悉，该厂创新推行由浅到深的套外漏井"梯度治理"模式，通过技术组合与工艺升级，不仅高效修复漏 井，还从源头遏制套漏井增长，实现安全环保与降本提效双赢。 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 在此基础上，技术人员进一步整合技术资源，根据套外漏井深度差异，将水泥封漏、定点取套、大修取 换套三项技术科学结合，形成具有杏南油田区块特色的"梯度治理"模式，针对不同深度漏井精准匹配修 复方案，全面提升套外漏井治理效率。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 大庆油田采油五厂的技术人员在录取套外漏井数据 裴宇 摄 编辑：熊思怡 随着开发周期延长，大庆杏南开发区油水井受地质、工程及腐蚀环境等因素影响，套管损坏问题日益突 出，每年套漏井数量约占大修井的1/5。套漏井不仅存在环保安全隐患，注 ...

每经AI快讯，潜能恒信（300191.SZ）12月8日在投资者互动平台表示，涠洲5-3油田合作项目首船提油 约45000方。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment**: Anticipation of a potential easing of monetary policy in early 2026, with the Financial Regulatory Bureau lowering risk factors for insurance companies' equity investments, which may enhance market risk appetite. The period from December to February is seen as a window for policy, liquidity, and fundamentals to resonate positively [3][6] - **A-Share Earnings Growth**: Expected growth of approximately 10.6% in non-financial A-share earnings for 2026, indicating a shift away from reliance on traditional cyclical industries [6] Sector-Specific Insights Aviation Sector - **Optimistic Outlook**: The aviation sector is expected to significantly reduce losses in Q4 2025 and turn profitable for the year. Demand growth in 2026 is projected to drive ticket prices and profitability upward. Companies recommended for investment include Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [7] Oil and Shipping Sector - **Record Profits Expected**: Anticipation of record profits in the oil shipping sector for Q4 and the entire year, driven by increased production in the Middle East and South America, and a reduction in Indian imports of Russian oil. Recommended companies include COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy Shipping, China Merchants South Oil, and China Ship Leasing [8] Chemical Sector - **Current Position and Recommendations**: The chemical sector is at a bottoming phase, with some products beginning to recover. Companies with cost advantages and new capacity that can enhance performance are recommended, such as the coal chemical leader Hualu Hengsheng. Investment opportunities are also noted in lithium iron phosphate electrolyte, n-butanol, and new alcohols due to price increases [9][10] Industrial Metals - **Upward Trend**: The industrial metals sector is experiencing a resonant upward trend, with copper, aluminum, and tin being highlighted as key investment areas. Factors include increased supply disruptions for copper and high domestic capacity utilization for aluminum [4][27] Coal Market - **Price Dynamics**: Recent rapid decline in port coal prices, with a drop of 27 yuan per ton, attributed to winter demand dynamics. Current coal prices are around 830 yuan per ton, with expectations of stabilization around this level [20][21] New Materials - **High-Growth Opportunities**: In the new materials sector, high-growth products such as lubricating oil additives and high-frequency, high-speed resins are highlighted. Companies like Ruifeng New Materials and Shengquan Group are noted for their potential [15] Investment Recommendations - **Focus Areas**: Continued emphasis on technology growth, large financials, and cyclical assets. The technology sector is seen as a medium-term growth driver, while large financials are expected to benefit from seasonal effects and insurance sector dynamics [5][28] - **Dividend Stocks**: High dividend assets are expected to outperform in the cross-year period, with companies like China State Construction, Sichuan Road and Bridge, and China Minmetals International highlighted for their attractive dividend yields [28][17] Conclusion - **Overall Market Sentiment**: The outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of policy support and economic recovery. Key sectors such as aviation, oil shipping, chemicals, and industrial metals are poised for growth, while investment strategies should focus on high-quality dividend stocks and sectors benefiting from structural changes in the economy [3][6][29]

Macroeconomic Highlights - The State Council held a meeting on December 5 to discuss further energy conservation and carbon reduction efforts, emphasizing the importance of these initiatives in achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals [1] - The meeting highlighted the need for higher quality and more effective energy conservation and carbon reduction work, enhancing internal motivation and improving market mechanisms [1] Securities Industry - On December 6, the Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), Wu Qing, addressed the eighth member meeting of the China Securities Association, emphasizing the responsibility of the financial sector in national development [2] - Wu Qing indicated that regulatory policies would encourage differentiated supervision, with a focus on loosening capital space and leverage limits for high-quality institutions to improve capital efficiency [2] Insurance Sector - On December 5, the Financial Regulatory Bureau announced adjustments to risk factors for insurance companies, lowering risk factors for long-term holdings of stocks in the CSI 300 index and STAR Market [3] - The new regulations also reduce premium and reserve risk factors for export credit and overseas investment insurance, while requiring insurers to enhance internal controls and strengthen solvency management [3] Gold Reserves - As of November 2025, China's gold reserves reached 74.12 million ounces (approximately 2,305.39 tons), marking an increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) and continuing a streak of 13 consecutive months of gold accumulation [4] Regulatory Developments for Listed Companies - On December 5, the CSRC released a draft for public consultation on the "Regulations on the Supervision and Management of Listed Companies," aimed at enhancing corporate governance, information disclosure, and investor protection [5] - This draft represents the first specialized administrative regulation for the supervision of listed companies in China [5] Pharmaceutical Sector - The 2025 National Medical Insurance Drug List and the first version of the commercial insurance innovative drug list were released, adding 114 new drugs, including 50 innovative drugs, with an overall success rate of 88%, up from 76% in 2024 [6] - The new lists include advanced treatments such as CAR-T and T-cell therapies, as well as drugs for rare diseases that are not currently covered by basic medical insurance [6] Company News - Muxi Co., Ltd. reported a final online issuance success rate of 0.03348913% [10] - China Pacific Insurance's Vice President Yu Ze is under investigation for serious violations of discipline and law [10] - Guolian Aviation's controlling shareholder and chairman Wang Zengduo has been released from detention [10] - Annie Co., Ltd. is planning a change in control, with stock resuming trading on December 8 [10] - ST Tianrui has terminated plans for a change in control, with stock resuming trading on December 8 [10] - Several pharmaceutical companies, including Heng Rui Medicine and Junshi Bioscience, have successfully added multiple drugs to the national medical insurance directory [10]

Group 1: Major Assets & Overseas Events & Data - Most developed countries' government bond yields have risen significantly, with the US 10-year Treasury yield increasing by 12.0 basis points to 4.14% [15] - The S&P 500 rose by 0.3% and the Nasdaq by 0.9% during the week, while the dollar index fell by 0.5% to 98.98 [94] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 2.6% to $60.1 per barrel, while COMEX gold prices decreased by 0.6% to $4197.6 per ounce [33][94] Group 2: US National Security Strategy - The US released its 2025 National Security Strategy, emphasizing the protection of US territory and security in the Western Hemisphere as top priorities [62] - The strategy criticizes the decline of Europe and demographic changes, insisting that Europe must bear the primary costs of its own defense [62] - The importance of the Middle East has been downgraded, with a focus on avoiding re-engagement in prolonged ground wars [62] Group 3: Employment and Consumption Data - In November, ADP employment in the US decreased by 32,000, contrary to market expectations of an increase of 10,000, with weakness concentrated in small businesses [69] - The actual PCE consumption in September was flat at 0%, below the market expectation of 0.1%, indicating weakness in consumer spending [72] Group 4: Commodity Prices - The prices of most commodities rose, with LME copper increasing by 5.7% to $11,616 per ton and WTI crude oil rising by 2.6% [33][38] - The inflation expectations rose by 3 basis points to 2.26% [42]

Group 1: Market Overview and Asset Allocation - Global stock markets mostly rose in the week ending December 5, with A-shares performing relatively well; major commodity futures such as copper, crude oil, and aluminum increased, while gold declined; the US dollar index slightly decreased, and non-US currencies appreciated [2][11] - The report highlights the expectation of US dollar interest rate cuts and Japanese yen interest rate hikes, indicating a rebalancing of assets; the market is expected to seek certainty, with recommendations for sectors such as non-ferrous resources, chip technology, export sectors, and dividend stocks [8][9] Group 2: Domestic Equity Market Review - In the week ending December 5, the domestic equity market showed a preference for cyclical stocks over growth, finance, and consumption, with an average daily trading volume of 1.6843 trillion yuan; 17 out of 31 sectors rose, with non-ferrous metals (+5.35%), communication (+3.69%), and defense industry (+2.82%) leading the gains [19][11] - The report notes that the central bank's bond purchases in November were slightly below market expectations, but regulatory adjustments favoring equity investments are positive for the market [11] Group 3: Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The report indicates a shift towards cautious sentiment in the bond market, with yields generally rising; this is attributed to increased inflation expectations and commodity price rises, alongside banks adjusting their asset portfolios due to regulatory requirements [9][21] - The report also discusses the narrowing of the China-US interest rate differential, positioning the renminbi favorably; the offshore renminbi appreciated slightly against the US dollar, reflecting strong market expectations for the currency [29][12] Group 4: Commodity Tracking - As of December 5, WTI crude oil prices experienced a slight increase to $60.08 per barrel, with US crude oil production rising to 13.815 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 302,000 barrels per day [30][31] - The report notes that geopolitical factors are expected to have a diminishing impact on oil prices in the short term, with Brent crude projected to fluctuate between $50 and $70 per barrel in the fourth quarter [35][36]

试验成功之后，工作重点随即转向了提质增效的自动化升级。该站迅速上报管理区，并协同生产指挥中 心，为曲104-斜101井安装了自动加药罐。该设备能实现精准的自动加药，不仅将员工从繁重重复的劳 动中解放出来，更确保了加药过程的连续性与稳定性。从发现问题、精准定位到成功解决并实现自动 化，整个攻坚战用时不到一个月。 这次成功实践，为冬季安全生产积累了宝贵经验。他们利用晨会开设"小课堂"，鼓励一线员工走上讲 台，将此类典型案例转化为生动的培训教材。"让行之有效的经验持续发光发热，就是我们提质增效 的'捷径'。"王岐认为，这既能节约时间，让员工把更多精力投入到技术革新、精细巡检和日常维护 中，还持续提升油藏经营管理水平。 目前，曲104注采站已将主干线、跨河管线等关键部位纳入重点监护清单，全力保障所有油井管输在严 寒中依然"血脉"畅通。(大众新闻记者顾松通讯员陈赞旭) "压力下来了！井组干压从0.8兆帕以上降到了0.6兆帕！"看着刚刚传回的数据，胜利油田鲁明公司济北 采油管理区曲104注采站站长王岐长舒一口气。站上"老大难"的曲104-斜101井，在完成自动加药罐安装 后，彻底告别了回压高、套管气小、无法升温的生产困境 ...

点击上图▲立即了解 " 美国战略收缩，意在美洲重组供应链和再工业化，而美国绝对主导的东亚旧秩序出现松动。 " 文 /巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 据CCTV国际时讯、参考消息报道，特朗普政府于当地时间12月4日晚，发布最新的《国家安全战略》报告，堪称重磅。 报告中最关键的一点是，美国战略重心将从"重返亚洲"转向美洲地区，中国不再被定义为"首要威胁"，而是经济领域的竞争对手。 文件中出现了一个历史词汇：门罗主义。它是1823年美国总统门罗提出的外交政策，从早期孤立主义演变为对美洲的经济控制和政治干预。 这也意味着，美国战略收缩，意在泛美地区重组供应链和再工业化，而美国绝对主导的东亚旧秩序出现松动。 很多人猜想，美国重返美洲，会对哪个国家率先开刀？首先跳出脑海的，自然是那个近日被美国军事威胁的反美国家——委内瑞拉。 巧合的是，2013年美国电子游戏公司动视暴雪曾推出了一款名为《使命召唤：幽灵》的游戏，第一次将美国和南美国家对立： 2020年代前后，拉美国家联合成一个强大政权，迅速崛起成新的超级大国，劫持了美国的太空武器并对美国本土发动毁灭性打击。 而这个联盟的中心，正是委内瑞拉的首都加拉加斯。 委内瑞拉首都加 ...