1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "shock - biased upward" [6]. - Specific varieties' ratings: - Steel: "Shock" [8] - Iron ore: "Shock" [8][9] - Scrap steel: "Shock" [10] - Coke: "Shock" [10][11][12] - Coking coal: "Shock - biased upward" [11][12] - Glass: "Shock" [14] - Soda ash: "Shock" [15][16] - Manganese silicon: "Shock" [17] - Ferrosilicon: "Shock" [18] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The implementation of the US interest rate cut has consolidated the support for the black building materials sector. Although the impact of production restrictions in Tangshan and Inner Mongolia on the supply - demand structure of black building materials has not been reflected, the positive effects of the US interest rate cut are still present. The black building materials sector is expected to maintain a shock - upward rhythm. The replenishment logic before the end of the month strongly supports the furnace charge end, which in turn supports steel prices. Despite internal differentiation, the overall support for the sector remains strong [2][6]. - In the iron element aspect, the fundamentals of iron ore are relatively healthy, but the peak - season demand for rebar needs further verification, which limits the upside space of iron ore. Scrap steel follows the finished products and is expected to maintain a shock trend. - In the carbon element aspect, coking enterprises have started to replenish raw materials, and the cost support is strong. The price of carbon elements is expected to remain in a shock state in the short term. - For alloys, although the peak - season expectations support the prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon in the short term, the supply - demand situation is expected to be pessimistic in the long - term, and there is downward pressure on prices. - For glass, the current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. There may be a shock after the mid - stream destocking. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed. For soda ash, the oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the price is expected to have a wide - range shock in the short - term and a downward trend in the long - term. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - Core logic: The spot market trading volume of steel is generally weak, with better trading at low prices. The profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces are shrinking, and steel mills have limited willingness to increase production. The peak - season demand recovery is less than expected, and the inventory pressure still exists. - Outlook: The steel inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamental contradictions are accumulating. The fundamentals of rebar are weaker than those of hot - rolled coils. Although the macro - environment is warm, the rebar is expected to perform worse than hot - rolled coils. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar [8]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Core logic: The overseas mine shipments have returned to normal, the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased, and the overall supply is stable. The demand is supported in the short - term, and the overall inventory level is neutral. - Outlook: The demand for iron ore has recovered to a high level, and there is an expectation of pre - festival replenishment. However, the peak - season demand for rebar needs further verification, so the price is expected to be in a shock state in the short - term [8][9]. 3.3 Scrap Steel - Core logic: The supply of scrap steel has decreased slightly, the demand has increased slightly, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly. - Outlook: The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent, and the price is expected to follow the finished products in the short - term [10]. 3.4 Coke - Core logic: The second - round price cut has been implemented, and the profits of coking enterprises are under pressure, but the production enthusiasm is still okay. The demand is strongly supported by rigid demand, and the overall inventory of steel mills is at a good level. - Outlook: Coking enterprises have started to replenish raw materials before the National Day, and the cost support is strong. Considering the possible production restrictions in Tangshan and the warm macro - environment, the price is expected to remain in a shock state in the short - term [11][12]. 3.5 Coking Coal - Core logic: The production of coal mines has basically recovered, and the import is normal. The demand for coking coal has increased, and the inventory pressure is not prominent. - Outlook: Although the production verification of coal is strict, the supply change is limited. With the pre - festival replenishment and good macro - sentiment, the price is expected to be shock - biased upward in the short - term [11][12][14]. 3.6 Glass - Core logic: The demand is weak in the off - season, but there is an upward trend in deep - processing orders. The supply uncertainty increases. The fundamental is still weak, and the spot price is easy to rise but hard to fall. - Outlook: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. There may be a shock after the mid - stream destocking. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to decline [14]. 3.7 Soda Ash - Core logic: The supply capacity has not been cleared, and the long - term suppression still exists. The demand for heavy soda ash is stable with a slight increase, and the demand for light soda ash is flat. The mid - stream inventory has accumulated. - Outlook: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. After the decline of the futures price, the spot - futures trading volume has increased slightly. The price is expected to have a wide - range shock in the short - term and a downward trend in the long - term [16]. 3.8 Manganese Silicon - Core logic: The peak - season expectation still exists, and the futures price has strengthened. The supply pressure is increasing, and the market is waiting for the steel procurement pricing. - Outlook: The peak - season expectation supports the futures price, but the supply - demand situation is expected to be pessimistic in the long - term, and the price center may decline [17]. 3.9 Ferrosilicon - Core logic: The downstream demand expectation is warm during the peak - season, and the futures price is strong. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand for ferrosilicon is relatively stable. - Outlook: The downward space of the ferrosilicon futures price is limited in the short - term, but the supply - demand relationship will be looser in the long - term, and there is downward pressure on the price [18].

Core Viewpoint - The impact of production restrictions in Tangshan and Inner Mongolia on the black metal sector has not yet manifested, while the favorable conditions from the US interest rate cut are maintaining high prices in the sector [1] Group 1: Black Metal Sector - Current production restrictions in Tangshan and Inner Mongolia have not yet affected the supply-demand structure of black metal products [1] - The US interest rate cut, being the first of the year, aligns with expectations and sets a positive tone for upcoming domestic meetings, suggesting a potential upward trend in the black construction materials sector [1] - Iron ore fundamentals remain healthy, with production recovering and low inventory levels, although demand for rebar during peak season is yet to be validated, limiting the upward price potential for iron ore [1] Group 2: Steel and Raw Materials - The scrap steel market shows no significant contradictions in fundamentals and is expected to follow the trends of finished products, indicating short-term price fluctuations [1] - Coking coal prices are stabilizing due to cost support, with potential production restrictions in Tangshan's coking steel enterprises, leading to expected short-term price fluctuations [1] - The coal production review is becoming stricter, but supply changes are limited, with downstream restocking beginning and a positive macro sentiment, suggesting a strong short-term price outlook [1] Group 3: Alloy and Glass Markets - The manganese-silicon market is supported by peak season expectations, but long-term supply-demand outlook appears pessimistic, indicating potential downward pressure on prices [1] - The silicon iron market has limited downward space, but the supply-demand balance is expected to loosen in the long term, leading to price pressures [1] - The glass market is experiencing weak demand, but seasonal and policy expectations may lead to fluctuations, with a need for market-driven capacity reduction in the long term [1] Group 4: Overall Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment is influenced by "anti-involution" dynamics, with the US interest rate cut fostering positive expectations for domestic meetings, supporting sector prices [1] - Inventory replenishment before the end of the month is expected to support raw material prices, with cost support for steel prices, indicating a strong overall market despite sector differentiation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The continuous decline in soda ash inventory since mid-August and the recent price rebound may not indicate a fundamental improvement in the industry, as supply remains excessive and effective destocking has not occurred [1][2][3][5]. Group 1: Inventory Trends - Soda ash factory inventory has decreased for four consecutive weeks, reaching 1.7975 million tons, down 113,300 tons or 5.93% from the historical peak of 1.9108 million tons [2]. - However, social inventory has increased to 540,000 tons, up 90,000 tons from 450,000 tons in early August, indicating a transfer of inventory rather than effective destocking [2]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - There is a slight improvement in downstream demand as glass prices strengthen with the arrival of the peak season, leading to an increase in glass production [3]. - Daily production of float glass rose to 160,175 tons, up 600 tons from August, while photovoltaic glass production also increased by 600 tons to 88,780 tons [3]. - Despite the overall increase in glass production, light soda ash inventory has been accumulating, indicating limited improvement in its downstream demand [3]. Group 3: Export Considerations - Soda ash exports have significantly increased, with a total of 1.154 million tons exported from January to July, a year-on-year increase of 128.38% [4]. - However, rising domestic prices may hinder export growth, as the export price in July was approximately 1,260 yuan per ton, which could lead to diminished export profits and exacerbate domestic oversupply [4]. Group 4: Production and Supply Outlook - The summer maintenance period for soda ash plants is ending, leading to a rise in operating rates and production levels, with a record output of 761,100 tons reported [5]. - The weekly demand for heavy soda ash from glass production is estimated at 348,500 tons, indicating a surplus of approximately 73,200 tons [5]. - With new production capacities coming online and the production season starting, soda ash supply is expected to remain high, and factory inventories may begin to accumulate again [5].

Industry Research Summary - Soda Ash Industry Industry Overview - The soda ash industry is characterized by simple processes and limited competition due to resource barriers. The main production methods include ammonia-soda process, dual-soda process, and natural soda process. The natural soda process is favored for its cost advantages, with production costs as low as 500-600 RMB per ton [2][3]. Key Insights - **Natural Soda Process Market Share**: Currently, the natural soda process holds a market share of only 15%, primarily contributed by Boyuan Chemical. This is a significant increase from less than 5% in 2022. Future expansions, such as the Alashan Phase II project, are expected to increase this share [1][3][4]. - **Price Influences**: Soda ash prices are primarily influenced by supply-demand dynamics rather than upstream raw material costs. Prices surged during 2020-2021 due to supply shortages but declined in 2022 with new capacity additions. A continued increase in supply pressure is expected to lead to further price declines in 2024-2025 [1][5][11]. - **Downstream Demand**: The main downstream applications for soda ash include flat glass (46%), daily-use glass (20%), and photovoltaic glass (13%). The demand for flat glass is expected to decline due to a weakening real estate market, while photovoltaic glass is projected to be a significant growth area, with a 54% increase in production in 2023 [1][6][7]. Future Projections - **Demand Growth**: Soda ash demand is projected to grow by approximately 2.64% by 2025, with photovoltaic glass contributing the most significant growth rate of 3.9%. The decline in flat glass demand due to real estate market pressures necessitates a focus on photovoltaic and flat glass sectors [7][8]. - **Capacity Expansion**: The industry is expected to see significant capacity expansion, with Boyuan Chemical's Phase I project reaching 5 million tons, leading to a total capacity of 43.5 million tons by the end of 2024. This increase will contribute to rising inventory levels, which may pressure prices [1][9][10]. Inventory and Price Trends - **Current Inventory Levels**: Soda ash inventory is currently high at approximately 1.8 million tons, which poses a significant challenge for price recovery. Future price movements will largely depend on inventory digestion [10][11]. - **Price Forecast**: Prices are expected to stabilize between 1,250 and 1,350 RMB when supply-demand balance is achieved, particularly as higher-cost producers exit the market [11][12]. Competitive Landscape - **Key Players**: Boyuan Chemical remains a leading supplier due to its cost advantages. Other companies like Zhongyan Chemical and Shandong Haohua are also noteworthy as they have secured mining rights for natural soda projects, although their market impact will not be felt until 2027 [13]. Boyuan Chemical faces risks related to its Mengda Mining project, which may affect its stock performance [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term market shows an upward trend due to anti - deflation and anti - involution expectations. The key to disproving the bullish logic lies in the delivery, with the next delivery pressure possibly in the 11 - contract. The time window from late September to the end of October is difficult to disprove the bullish view [4][140]. - From 2022 - 2024, real estate and glass spot markets showed quarterly improvements in the fourth quarter. However, the glass spot price has rarely increased by over 20% during these periods. Exceeding expectations in anti - involution measures is needed to address the current weak basis [4][140]. - From 2025 - 2026, the glass industry will trend towards energy cleaning and electrification, as indicated by policies from the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and local environmental protection departments [13][140]. - The soda ash industry has a more severe supply surplus than the glass industry. Its future trend is expected to be similar to that of glass, but it may be weaker during the upward phase and stronger during the downward phase [5][140]. - Currently, bonds and stocks are trading based on the anti - deflation logic. The weak reality of glass and soda ash has to yield to the capital logic. The market will return to the weak - reality delivery logic during the policy - free period in the late fourth quarter [7][140]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Glass Market Outlook - The glass market is expected to be volatile and bullish until facing delivery pressure again. The rise is driven by expectations, while the fall is due to delivery [4]. Bullish and Bearish Logics - **Bearish**: Terminal demand has not improved, real estate transactions are weak, futures are at a significant premium (01 contract is about 200 higher than the spot), and the anti - involution policy for glass is not clear, so significant production cuts may not occur [4]. - **Bullish**: The delivery pressure of the 09 contract has ended, the anti - involution policy may exceed expectations and cannot be disproven in the short term, and real estate and glass spot markets usually improve quarter - on - quarter in the fourth quarter [4]. Points to Note - Before the National Day, there may be a squeeze on virtual positions. The next delivery pressure is expected in the 11 - contract, and the time window from late September to early November is more favorable for bulls [7]. - Inventory in Shahe has decreased by 50% year - on - year, in Hubei by 16.5%, and nationally by 15%. After the end of August, national inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month. In the past three years, the glass industry has mainly reduced inventory in the fourth quarter, limiting the downside of spot prices [7]. - The limit of the forward premium due to warehouse receipt pressure in the past three years is about 200 yuan/ton, and the current spread between the 01 and 11 contracts is 110 yuan/ton [7]. - The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe may be a market speculation point, but its real impact is limited [7]. Supply - Cold - repaired production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 11,680 tons/day, newly ignited production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 13,210 tons/day, potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 14,790 tons/day, potential old - line复产 production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 9,930 tons, and potential cold - repaired production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 6,900 tons/day [51][52][53]. - Current in - production capacity is about 160,000 tons/day, with a peak of 178,000 tons/day in 2021. The net capacity in 2024 decreased by 17,000 tons compared to the beginning - of - year high, but there has been no significant contraction in 2025 [57][58][61]. - The most likely devices to stop production are those ignited before 2017, accounting for 22.5% of the total capacity. Most domestic devices were cold - repaired between 2017 - 2021, accounting for nearly 44% [61]. Price and Profit - Shahe prices are around 1,120 - 1,160 yuan/ton, Hubei prices are around 1,040 - 1,120 yuan/ton, and prices in East China are around 1,220 - 1,320 yuan/ton. Recent spot prices have changed little, with a weakening basis and month - spread [71][72]. - Profits are about 30 yuan/ton for petroleum - coke - fueled devices, - 174 yuan/ton for natural - gas - fueled devices, and 100 yuan/ton for coal - fueled devices [75][79]. Inventory and Spread - Recent transactions have improved slightly, and inventory has declined. Most regions have seen a slowdown in inventory accumulation. Downstream restocking is mainly due to low prices, and terminal demand has not expanded significantly [82][84]. - Comparing the market in the past three years, there has been a high probability of quarter - on - quarter improvement, but the spot price rarely increases by over 20%. The glass industry needs to improve both supply and demand to change the long - term negative feedback [87][88]. - Regional arbitrage shows that prices in different regions are stable, and low - price regions have slightly better transactions than high - price regions [90]. Photovoltaic Glass - The domestic photovoltaic glass market has good overall transactions, with prices fluctuating upward. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is about 13 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels is about 20 yuan/square meter [98][100]. - Production capacity has changed little recently, trading has improved, and inventory has declined. The number of in - production production lines is 408, with a total daily melting capacity of 89,290 tons/day, a year - on - year decrease of 15.34%. The sample inventory days are about 16.13 days, a 12.13% decrease month - on - month [102][104][109]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Maintenance devices are gradually resuming production, and the operating rate has increased slightly. The capacity utilization rate is 87.3% (86.2% last week), and the current weekly output of heavy soda ash is 422,000 tons/week [113][115]. - Inventory is about 1.8 million tons, with 76,000 tons of light soda ash and 1.04 million tons of heavy soda ash [120][121]. Price and Profit - Futures have rebounded, and spot traders' quotes have increased slightly, while manufacturers' quotes have changed little. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are around 1,210 - 1,400 yuan/ton [129][130]. - The profit of the combined - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 54.5 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 36.3 yuan/ton [136]. Market Scenario - The soda ash market is moving towards a weaker situation. Under different demand assumptions (weak, neutral, and optimistic), there are different supply - demand gaps [137].

房地产依旧表现低迷，下游深加工订单小幅抬升，采购以刚需为主，整体库存虽然重新累库，后续市场将 会围绕需求端进行波动，整体去库存趋势依旧不变，联储即将开启议息会议，国内维持汇率升值压力，后 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-09-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1334 | -5 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1234 | -3 | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 100 | -2 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1339542 | 913 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1304305 | 24237 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -247815 | -13809 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -173987 | -13710 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 5672 | -578 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 1040 | -565 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | -124 | -11 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "oscillating upward", with individual variety ratings as follows: - Steel: Oscillating [7] - Iron ore: Oscillating [8] - Scrap steel: Oscillating [9] - Coke: Oscillating [11] - Coking coal: Oscillating upward [12] - Glass: Oscillating [13] - Soda ash: Oscillating [16] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [17] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [18] Core View of the Report - The "anti - involution" sentiment has strengthened again, providing an upward driver for the sector. Combined with the replenishment logic, strong macro - expectations, and the approach of the National Day with enterprises starting pre - holiday stockpiling, it is expected that the sector will oscillate upward before the holiday. However, attention should be paid to the dynamics of China - US talks and the possible negative impact of overseas countries imposing additional tariffs on China [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Sector - Policy - level mention of "anti - involution", along with production restrictions in Tangshan's coking and steel enterprises and coal over - production inspections in Inner Mongolia, has boosted market sentiment. Steel, coking coal, glass, and soda ash have shown strong performance, while iron ore has been relatively weak. In the later stage, although the "anti - involution" sentiment may fluctuate, it is expected to push up the sector's prices further considering the macro - level benefits during the peak season and the industry's replenishment [2]. Situation of Each Variety Iron Element - Iron ore: The fundamentals are healthy. The environmental protection - related production restrictions in Tangshan may have a limited impact on the overall demand, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. Port trading volume increased, overseas mine shipments returned to normal, 45 - port arrivals decreased, demand was supported in the short term, and the overall inventory level was neutral [2][8]. - Scrap steel: The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and it follows the trend of finished products. The short - term price is expected to oscillate. The supply decreased, demand increased slightly, and the factory inventory decreased slightly [2][9]. Carbon Element - Coke: The second - round price cut has been implemented. The futures market is strong, and the spot market sentiment has improved. The supply is basically stable, and the demand is strongly supported. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - Coking coal: The supply is temporarily stable, and the demand for pre - holiday replenishment from downstream coking enterprises has been released. The price is expected to oscillate upward in the short term due to the strong "anti - involution" atmosphere, limited coal production growth, and macro - policy benefits [12]. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The short - term cost and peak - season expectations support the price, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is expected to move downward [3][17]. - Ferrosilicon: The short - term cost supports the price, and the decline space during the peak season is limited. However, the medium - and long - term supply - demand relationship will loosen, and the price center will move downward [3][18]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be oscillations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if it returns to fundamental trading, the price is expected to decline [3][6][13]. - Soda ash: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. After the decline in the futures market, the spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the long - term price center will move downward to promote capacity reduction [6][16]. Steel - The spot market trading volume is average, and the inventory is accumulating, but the rate has slowed down. The fundamentals of rebar are weaker than those of hot - rolled coils. The market is cautious about the peak - season demand. Although the cost support has weakened, the "anti - involution" sentiment and the warming macro - environment still support the price. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar [7]. Indexes - On September 16, 2025, the comprehensive index, special indexes (including the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index, PPI commodity index), and the steel industry chain index all showed an upward trend [105][106].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the price trend of finished products shows a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. The economic data in August slowed down overall and was lower than expected, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales are still weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. The export volume declined slightly last week and remains in a weak and volatile pattern. The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively strong, and their trends have diverged. Although it has entered the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar is still weak, and the demand for hot - rolled coils still has some resilience. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices still have the risk of decline. The raw material side is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the possible disturbances caused by safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. In the long - term, although the black sector prices may have a short - term correction risk due to real - demand factors, in the face of the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary double - easing and the opening of China's policy space, the black sector may gradually have the cost - effectiveness of long - allocation, and the key node may focus on the "Fourth Plenary Session" around mid - October [3][10]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3166 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.956%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 269,959 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,941 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.956248 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 21,822 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3230 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30 yuan/ton. The rebar apparent demand continued to be sluggish, with weak demand in the traditional peak season and increasing inventory pressure [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3402 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (0.949%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 58,841 tons, with no month - on - month change. The position of the main contract was 1.390939 million lots, a month - on - month increase of 42,984 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3420 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 40 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3430 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton. The output of hot - rolled coils increased, the apparent demand was relatively good, the overall demand was neutral, and the inventory decreased slightly [2]. Iron Ore - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2601) was 803.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.94% (+7.50), and the position changed by - 3458 lots to 532,400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 845,800 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.25 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.22%. The overseas iron ore shipments in the latest period rebounded to a high level in the same period. The shipments from Australia increased month - on - month, and the shipments from Brazil rebounded significantly. The shipments from non - mainstream countries also increased. The recent arrival volume decreased slightly. The daily average pig iron output in the latest period was 240,550 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,710 tons. The inventory in ports and steel mills' imported ore increased slightly. In general, the iron ore price will fluctuate in the short term [5][6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: On September 16, the price of coking coal rose significantly during the day, driving the alloy price stronger. The main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) rose in the morning and then gradually declined, closing up 0.647% at 5944 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton, with a premium of 66 yuan/ton over the futures price. The daily - line level of the manganese silicon futures price maintains a range - bound pattern, and it is recommended that speculative positions mainly wait and see [8][9]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) opened higher and then gradually declined, closing flat at 5700 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/ton, with a premium of 50 yuan/ton over the futures price. The daily - line level of the ferrosilicon futures price also maintains a range - bound pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see. The fundamentals of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the black - sector market, with relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [9][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2511) was 8915 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.31% (+115). The weighted contract position increased by 4487 lots to 512,319 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - containing 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton, with a basis of 185 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 115 yuan/ton. The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The fundamentals are weak, but if the market continues to discuss relevant topics such as "anti - involution", the price may rise further [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract (PS2511) was 53,670 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.23% (+125). The weighted contract position decreased by 6229 lots to 293,968 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon in the SMM caliber was 49.5 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.5 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 1170 yuan/ton. The polysilicon price is more policy - driven, and the market focus is on capacity - integration policies and downstream price - passing progress. The price is volatile, and attention should be paid to position and risk control [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The main contract of glass closed at 1237 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 2.49% (+30). The quoted price of large - size glass in North China was 1150 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the quoted price in Central China was 1110 yuan, also unchanged. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 61.583 million cases, a month - on - month decrease of 1.467 million cases (-2.33%). The industry supply increased slightly, and the enterprise inventory decreased month - on - month. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1339 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 2.37% (+31). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1244 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 26 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.7975 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24,600 tons (-2.33%), of which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1.0345 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37,400 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 763,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons. The industry supply decreased slightly due to the maintenance of production lines in Hubei Xindu and Haijing Yuehe. The market trading atmosphere was tepid, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly [19].

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory levels. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. In the short term, soda ash is expected to move in a volatile manner [2][5]. Key Points by Section 1. Daily View - Fundamental analysis shows that alkali plants have few maintenance activities, supply remains high, downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable while photovoltaic daily melting volume continues to decline, and terminal demand is average. Soda ash factory inventory is at a historically high level, which is bearish [2]. - The basis is -114 yuan, with futures at a premium to spot, which is bearish [2]. - National soda ash factory inventory is 179.75 million tons, a 1.35% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][35]. - The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, showing a neutral signal [2]. - The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [2]. - Overall, soda ash fundamentals are weak, and short - term volatility is expected [2]. 2. Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: The peak maintenance period is approaching this year, and production is expected to decline [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with industry output at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, leading to weaker demand for soda ash. The positive sentiment of macro - policies has faded [4]. 3. Main Logic The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 4. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1339 yuan/ton, a 2.37% increase from the previous value. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1225 yuan/ton, a 2.08% increase from the previous value. The main basis is -114 yuan, a 5.56% increase from the previous value [6]. 5. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1225 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan increase from the previous day [11]. - The profit of heavy soda ash production using the North China ammonia - soda process is -96.30 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production process is -92.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.29%. The weekly output of soda ash is 76.11 million tons, including 42.17 million tons of heavy soda ash, with output at a historical high [17][19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity, with a total planned increase of 1570 million tons and an actual planned increase of 1030 million tons in 2025 [20]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 103.23% [23]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 16.02 million tons, and the operating rate is 76.01%, showing stability [26]. - The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production has continued a significant downward trend [32]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory National soda ash factory inventory is 179.75 million tons, a 1.35% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [35]. 8. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides a supply - demand balance sheet for soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, showing changes in effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, and growth rates in various aspects [36].

| 象胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年9月17日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 9月16日 | 9月15日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | 15150 | 15000 | 150 | 1.00% | | | 全乳基元 | -890 | -ddc | 105 | 10.55% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 15150 | 14950 | 200 | 1.34% | | | 非标价差 | -890 | -1045 | 155 | 14.83% | | | 杯胶：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 52.20 | 52.55 | -0.35 | -0.67% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 56.20 | 56.00 | 0.20 | 0.36% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 13200 | 13200 ...