Core Points - The Ministry of Commerce announced the initiation of a final review investigation on anti-dumping measures applicable to imported polyphenylene sulfide from Japan, the United States, South Korea, and Malaysia, effective December 1, 2025 [1] - During the review period, the anti-dumping duties will continue to be levied according to previously published announcements [1] Summary by Company - **Japanese Companies**: - Toray Industries, Inc. 26.9% - DIC Corporation 27.3% - POLYPLASTICS CO., LTD. 25.2% - Tosoh Corporation 25.6% - IDEMITSU FINE COMPOSITES CO., LTD. 33.6% - Sumitomo Bakelite Co., Ltd. 34.5% - Other Japanese companies 69.1% [2] - **American Companies**: - Solvay Specialty Polymers USA, LLC 214.1% - Fortron Industries LLC 220.9% - Other American companies 220.9% [2] - **South Korean Companies**: - Toray Advanced Materials Korea Inc. 26.4% - HDC POLYALL Co., Ltd. 32.7% - Other South Korean companies 46.8% [2] - **Malaysian Companies**: - Polyplastics Asia Pacific Sdn. Bhd. 23.3% - DIC Compounds (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. 40.5% - Other Malaysian companies 40.5% [2] Investigation Periods - The dumping investigation period is from July 1, 2024, to June 30, 2025, while the industry damage investigation period is from January 1, 2021, to June 30, 2025 [3]

徐绍祖（联系人） 投产错配叠加季节性， LL1-5反套或将持续 聚烯烃周报 2025/11/29 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号： Z0022675 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 聚乙烯供给端 07 聚丙烯供给端 02 期现市场 05 聚乙烯库存&进出口 08 聚丙烯库存&进出口 03 成本端 06 聚乙烯需求端 09 聚丙烯需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 聚烯烃周度策略 【行情资讯】 政策端：美国大型科技公司财报好于预期，资本市场情绪转暖，国内能化品种回归各自基本面，涨跌各现。 估值：聚乙烯周度跌幅（期货＞成本＞现货），聚丙烯周度跌幅（期货＞现货＞成本）。 成本端：上周WTI原油下跌-1.33%，Brent原油下跌-0.60%，煤价下跌-1.80%，甲醇上涨4.49%，乙烯上涨0.23%，丙烯上涨2.27%，丙 烷上涨0.88%。成本端支撑尚存。 供应端：PE产能利用率84.12%，环比上涨0.42%，同比去年上涨3.44%，较5年同期下降-5.17%。PP产能利用率77.97%，环比上涨 ...

Group 1 - The petrochemical industry is facing multiple challenges such as severe price fluctuations, escalating trade barriers, and tight capital chains amid a global economic downturn and overcapacity [1][2] - The conference held on November 27 aimed to discuss how to use futures tools to build a more resilient operating defense line for the petrochemical industry [1][2] - The newly listed monthly average price futures for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene are designed to hedge against price volatility risks, providing more stable price expectations for enterprises [4][5] Group 2 - The PVC market is under pressure due to high inventory and low demand, but future price prospects may improve with reduced production capacity pressure and rising export demand to regions like India and Southeast Asia [5] - A roundtable discussion highlighted the industry's transition from quantity to imbalance, analyzing global mismatches in supply and demand, particularly in the appliance and automotive sectors [7][8] - The event received positive feedback from industry participants, emphasizing the need for more high-quality professional exchange activities to provide valuable insights and practical guidance for the resin industry in South China [12]

Core Insights - The chemical industry is facing significant challenges due to global economic downturn and overcapacity, leading to price volatility, trade barriers, and tight cash flow [1] - The conference "DCE. Industry Action - Focus on Monthly Average New Tools, Building the Resin Industry Chain" was successfully held, highlighting the importance of futures markets in supporting the real economy [1][2] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The resin industry chain is experiencing a complex market environment with increasing price fluctuations and a growing need for risk management [2] - High supply, high inventory, and weak demand are creating a challenging landscape for downstream production enterprises [8] Group 2: Futures Market Innovations - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has launched monthly average price futures for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene, which are the first cash-settled futures in the domestic market [4] - Monthly average contracts provide a stable pricing mechanism that helps companies manage long-term price volatility risks and enhances the resilience of the entire industry chain [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - The PVC market is under pressure due to high inventory and a sluggish real estate sector, but future demand from regions like India and Southeast Asia is expected to rise, potentially stabilizing prices [5] - The conference included discussions on how to drive inventory destocking and optimize procurement and sales pricing through a combination of spot and futures trading [8] Group 4: Industry Recognition - The conference received positive feedback from industry participants, who appreciated the depth and relevance of the discussions, indicating a strong desire for more high-quality professional exchange events in the future [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, PX and PTA have limited supply pressure, polyester demand remains stable, and the futures market has support at the bottom. However, the continuous weakening of the terminal restricts the rebound momentum, and the market is in a range - bound pattern. The price of ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate at a low level due to insufficient demand. In the medium - to - long - term, the demand drive is insufficient, and supply changes dominate the market rhythm. The polyester sector shows a differentiated trend in the fourth quarter, with PX and PTA being relatively strong and ethylene glycol having limited upward potential [33]. - For methanol, in the short - term, although the shutdown of Iranian plants and tight supply in the inland region boost the market, the high - supply and high - operation situation will continue, and the demand support is insufficient, so the upward space of the futures market is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the import is expected to decrease from mid - December to next year, but the demand increase is still weak, and the market may fluctuate widely. - For plastics, in the short - term, the social inventory continues to decline, but the supply remains high, and the demand support is weak. The market may continue to fluctuate in a low - level range. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure may not decrease, and the overall demand is expected to weaken significantly, so the plastic market may continue to be weak [61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Crude Oil Important News - Geopolitical news: Ukrainian President Zelensky plans to continue implementing the Geneva Conference results with the US. Russian President Putin said that the US delegation will visit Moscow next week, but Russia will not make concessions on key issues, and negotiating with the current Ukrainian leadership is meaningless at this stage. OPEC+ is expected to maintain the current crude oil production policy and may establish a new mechanism to assess member countries' production capacity [5]. - Crude oil supply and demand: Russian seaborne crude oil imports decreased by 23% in the week ending November 25. US sanctions on Russian oil companies have led to a reduction in purchases by major buyers. US commercial crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased in the week ending November 21 [6][7]. - Market sentiment: Fed officials' dovish speeches have increased the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut, with the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut rising to 86.9%. The US dollar index is under pressure, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield has declined rapidly [6]. 3.2 Polyester Sector Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: WTI crude oil increased by 0.65% week - on - week, PX601 decreased by 1.64%, TA601 decreased by 1.36%, EG601 increased by 1.33%, PF602 decreased by 0.93%, and PR601 decreased by 0.70%. - Spot prices: Naphtha decreased by 1.24%, PX CFR Taiwan decreased by 0.96%, PTA spot decreased by 0.39%, ethylene glycol in East China increased by 0.34%, polyester staple fiber in East China decreased by 0.40%, and polyester bottle chips in East China decreased by 0.35% [9]. 3.3 Supply and Demand of Polyester Raw Materials - PX: The 800,000 - tonne unit of Sinochem Quanzhou has been shut down for maintenance, but the restart of Shanghai Petrochemical has increased supply. As of November 28, the domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 89.74%, and the output was 752,600 tonnes. Asian PX capacity utilization decreased slightly to 79.4%. Next week, supply is expected to decline slightly, and PX processing fees have bottom - end support [14]. - PTA: The restart of Shenghong's unit was offset by the maintenance of Yisheng Ningbo and Sichuan Energy Investment units, resulting in a slight decrease in supply this week. As of November 28, the domestic PTA weekly capacity utilization rate was 71.92%, and the output was 1.3747 million tonnes. Social inventory continued to decline. Next week, supply is expected to increase slightly [17]. - Ethylene glycol: The shutdown of Sinochem Quanzhou's unit and the delay of Puyang's restart led to a slight decrease in supply this week. As of November 28, the domestic ethylene glycol weekly average capacity utilization rate was 62.67%. The restart of Hongsifang's unit and the planned restart of Huayi's unit are expected to increase supply next week, but supply is expected to decline in December [19]. 3.4 Polyester End and Terminal Situation - Polyester end: The weekly average polyester operating rate was 87.38%, a decrease of 0.21 percentage points week - on - week. - Terminal: As of November 28, the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 66.93%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points. The order days of Chinese weaving sample enterprises were 13.04 days, a decrease of 0.50 days, and the坯布 inventory days were 23.45 days, an increase of 0.60 days [20][30]. 3.5 Methanol and Polyethylene Data - Price trends: The futures price of MA2601 increased by 6.54%, and the spot price of methanol in Taicang increased by 3.71%. The futures price of L2601 increased by 0.28%, while the spot prices of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE decreased [35]. - Methanol supply: As of November 27, the domestic methanol operating rate was 89.09%, and the output was 2.0235 million tonnes. This week, some units resumed production, and next week, Jiutai New Materials plans to resume production [42]. - Methanol demand: The overall downstream operating rate increased slightly, but MTO operating rate has limited room for further increase, and traditional downstream is in the off - season. The 1.2 - million - tonne acetic acid unit of Celanese has been shut down for maintenance since November 28 [45]. - Methanol inventory: As of November 26, the port inventory was 1.3635 million tonnes, a decrease of 7.83%, and the inland inventory was 373,700 tonnes, an increase of 4.19%. Iranian units have entered the gas - restricted shutdown state [48]. - Plastic supply: As of November 27, the domestic plastic operating rate was 84.51%, and the output was 684,800 tonnes. This week, some units were under maintenance, and some units resumed production. Next week, no units are planned for maintenance, and some units are expected to resume production [51]. - Plastic demand: As of November 27, the plastic downstream operating rate was 44.3%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points. The demand for greenhouse films is expected to decline, and the packaging film is still digesting previous orders, with a decreasing scale [55]. - Plastic inventory: As of November 26, the social plastic inventory was 471,100 tonnes, a decrease of 3.05%, and the two - oil enterprise inventory was 384,000 tonnes, a decrease of 9.43%. Manufacturers are actively reducing inventory [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On November 28, 2025, new maintenance devices such as Maoming Petrochemical LDPE were added, causing the plastic operating rate to drop to around 88%, and the current operating rate is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased, and the overall is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The destocking of petrochemicals slowed down in November, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The supply of new production capacity was put into operation, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline. Downstream enterprises have insufficient purchasing willingness, and traders are cautious about the future market. Although relevant meetings have given some boost to bulk commodities, the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics has not changed, and it is expected that the upside space of plastics will be limited in the near future [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The addition of new maintenance devices led to a decline in the plastic operating rate. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased, and the destocking of petrochemicals slowed down. The cost - end crude oil price fluctuated at a low level. New production capacity was put into operation, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase on a rigid - demand basis, and traders are cautious about the future market. Although relevant meetings have given some boost to bulk commodities, the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics has not changed, and the upside space of plastics is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6702 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6793 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 6789 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.10%. The trading volume decreased by 38333 lots to 457393 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market rose, with price changes ranging from - 80 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6770 - 7150 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8620 - 9280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6930 - 7600 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On November 28, new maintenance devices such as Maoming Petrochemical LDPE were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 88%, at a neutral level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of November 28, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.39 percentage points to 44.3% month - on - month. The agricultural film entered the end of the peak season, orders decreased, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE was still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] - **Inventory**: The early inventory of petrochemicals on Friday was flat month - on - month at 650,000 tons, 70,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The destocking of petrochemicals slowed down in November, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 02 contract rose to $63/barrel, the Northeast Asian ethylene price was flat month - on - month at $720/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price was flat month - on - month at $730/ton [4]

Market Overview - The plastic sector increased by 1.12% on November 28, with Daoming Optics leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3888.6, up 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12984.08, up 0.85% [1] Top Gainers in the Plastic Sector - Daoming Optics (002632) closed at 12.44, up 9.99% with a trading volume of 107,800 shares and a transaction value of 134 million yuan [1] - Foshan Plastics (000973) closed at 13.78, up 8.50% with a trading volume of 1,297,700 shares and a transaction value of 1.747 billion yuan [1] - Ping An Electric (001359) closed at 59.52, up 5.53% with a trading volume of 45,900 shares and a transaction value of 27 million yuan [1] - Heshun Technology (301237) closed at 50.83, up 5.00% with a trading volume of 19,300 shares and a transaction value of 9.754 million yuan [1] - Zhonglun New Materials (301565) closed at 27.60, up 4.90% with a trading volume of 119,900 shares and a transaction value of 330 million yuan [1] Top Losers in the Plastic Sector - Guofeng New Materials (000859) closed at 7.63, down 9.92% with a trading volume of 2,030,300 shares and a transaction value of 1.561 billion yuan [2] - Ningbo Color Masterbatch (301019) closed at 24.72, down 5.00% with a trading volume of 127,200 shares and a transaction value of 31.7 million yuan [2] - Xingye Co., Ltd. (603928) closed at 15.52, down 3.12% with a trading volume of 84,500 shares and a transaction value of 13.2 million yuan [2] Capital Flow in the Plastic Sector - The plastic sector saw a net inflow of 65.1441 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 32.0341 million yuan [2] - Speculative funds experienced a net outflow of 97.1783 million yuan [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Foshan Plastics (000973) had a net inflow of 16.6 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 38.0491 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Dongcai Technology (601208) saw a net inflow of 96.2674 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 25.3946 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Daoming Optics (002632) experienced a net inflow of 37.2661 million yuan from institutional investors, but had a net outflow of 16.2180 million yuan from speculative funds [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The raw material end crude oil price fluctuates, the profit of the monomer link is compressed, the PE market fluctuates at a low level, the downstream agricultural film and packaging film industries have strong rigid demand support, but the downstream's willingness to hold goods has weakened after the recent decline, the upstream mainly maintains prices, the factory inventory accumulates passively, and the basis strengthens slightly. The supply side has no major near - term contradictions, but medium - term attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2601 yesterday was 6699, with a daily decline of 0.12%, the trading volume was 393,483, and the position decreased by 1,873 [1] - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of the 01 contract was 41 yesterday (43 the day before), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 64 yesterday (- 61 the day before) [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6,740 yuan/ton, 6,900 yuan/ton, and 7,030 yuan/ton respectively yesterday, with North China and South China prices decreasing compared to the day before [1] Spot News - The futures market opened lower and fluctuated. The basis of North China LL gradually recovered to a slight premium, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased recently. Traders reduced prices to promote sales, and downstream buyers were not very active. The US and Middle East offers decreased, and the shipments are expected to arrive in Q1 2026 [1] Market Condition Analysis - The raw material end crude oil price fluctuates, the profit of the monomer link is compressed, the PE market fluctuates at a low level. The downstream agricultural film and packaging film industries have strong rigid demand support, but the downstream's willingness to hold goods has weakened after the recent decline. The upstream mainly maintains prices, the factory inventory accumulates passively, and the basis strengthens slightly. The supply side has no major near - term contradictions, but medium - term attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0 [3]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the Chinese chemical industry is entering a critical turning point between 2024 and 2025, characterized by a combination of cyclical stabilization and deepening industrial upgrades, with features such as demand differentiation, supply optimization, cost fluctuations, and clear policy guidance [1][19]. Overall Overview - The report focuses on 431 A-share listed chemical companies, analyzing the industry's development trends from multiple dimensions [1][8]. - The chemical industry is currently in a new stage of innovation-driven and global development, with significant influence in the A-share market, reflected in the number of companies, market capitalization, and revenue [1][19]. - Chemical products dominate in terms of company numbers, market capitalization, revenue, and profit, followed by plastics, agricultural chemicals, and chemical raw materials [1][19]. - Zhejiang, Shandong, and Jiangsu provinces lead in key indicators, while other provinces show a gradient development pattern based on resource endowments and industrial upgrade pace [1][19]. Market Performance - Chemical product prices faced pressure after fluctuations in 2024, continuing to operate at low levels in 2025, indicating the industry is still in a bottoming phase [1][19]. - Price differentials for chemical products showed increased volatility in 2024, with a shift from negative to positive in early 2025 before slightly narrowing [1][19]. - Although stock prices rebounded, they underperformed compared to the broader market, with valuations remaining at historical lows [1][19]. - There is significant divergence in market capitalization performance, with leading companies and high-growth targets standing out [1][19]. Operating Conditions - Revenue showed resilience in scale, with a slight growth in 2024, while net profit attributable to shareholders exhibited structural differentiation [2][20]. - Revenue growth turned positive, while profit growth remained negative but significantly narrowed [2][20]. - Profitability faced deep pressure, reflecting a differentiated pattern amid industrial transformation challenges [2][20]. - Operational capabilities showed significant differentiation, with asset and account management reflecting operational resilience [2][20]. - The asset-liability ratio increased marginally, with financial strategies adapting to industrial upgrade needs [2][20]. Capital Operations - In 2024, equity financing saw a comprehensive contraction, with capital focusing on quality tracks and core projects [2][20]. - Bond financing showed moderate recovery, with funds concentrating on quality projects and leading entities [2][20]. Capacity Construction - Capital expenditure contracted year-on-year, with fixed assets continuing to grow but at a slower pace, shifting from scale expansion to stock optimization and high-end upgrades [2][20]. - The total amount of ongoing projects steadily increased, but the growth rate slowed, with significant differentiation among sub-industries and a pronounced clustering effect among leading companies [2][20]. Technological Innovation - R&D intensity increased overall, with resources concentrating on high-end tracks and leading specialized companies, highlighting the logic of innovation-driven transformation [2][20]. - The proportion of R&D personnel continued to rise, with significant differentiation among sub-industries and companies, particularly among leading technology firms [2][20]. International Development - Overseas revenue showed overall recovery growth, with significant differentiation among sub-industries and leading companies deeply embedded in the global market [2][20]. - Foreign ownership showed increasing differentiation, with high-end technology companies receiving focused allocation, reflecting global capital's recognition of China's chemical industry's high-end transformation [2][20]. Policy Guidance - Encouraging policies focus on green low-carbon, high-end, and park-intensive development, promoting industrial upgrades [2][20]. - Restrictive policies rigidly eliminate backward production capacity and optimize inefficient layouts, strengthening environmental and safety constraints [2][20]. - Capital market policies support advanced chemical new materials, deepen market-oriented reforms in mergers and acquisitions, and guide capital towards strategic areas [2][20]. Case Insights - Wanhua Chemical builds a scale moat through integrated and global layouts, maintaining a stable traditional business while expanding new growth areas [2][20]. - New Hope achieves counter-cyclical growth through technological barriers and specialized routes, demonstrating the growth value of technology-driven and niche deep cultivation [2][20]. - Upwind New Materials highlights the mismatch between valuation and fundamentals, warning against over-reliance on capital sentiment and short-term events, emphasizing the importance of profit realization for valuation support [2][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The plastics market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state in the near future due to the unchanged supply - demand pattern and weakened cost support [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On November 27, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. New capacities of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE (500,000 tons/year) and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons/year) were recently put into production. The plastics operating rate decreased slightly [1][4] - As of the week of November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69% week - on - week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders, but the peak season is less than expected. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The procurement willingness of downstream enterprises is insufficient, mainly for rigid demand [1][4] - In November, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral to high level in the same period in recent years. The cost support weakened as the crude oil price dropped [1][4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastics 2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6,694 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,742 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,699 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.61%. The position volume decreased by 1,873 lots to 495,726 lots [2] - **Spot**: The PE spot market was mostly stable, with price fluctuations between - 80 and + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,770 - 7,150 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,620 - 9,280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,930 - 7,600 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On November 27, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69% week - on - week. The agricultural film is in the peak season with stable orders and slightly increased raw material inventory. The packaging film orders also increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - **Inventory**: On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 65 million tons week - on - week, 4.5 million tons higher than the same period last year. In November, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current inventory is at a neutral to high level in the same period in recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 02 contract fell below $63/barrel. The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia remained flat at $720/ton week - on - week, and that in Southeast Asia remained flat at $730/ton week - on - week [4]