Core Viewpoint - The bond market is under pressure, with a significant decline in long-term treasury futures and rising yields, indicating a shift in market expectations and trading dynamics [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 12, the 30-year treasury futures fell by 0.71%, and continued to decline on December 15, reaching a low of 111.43 yuan, marking a new low in the current adjustment phase [3]. - The yield on the 30-year treasury bond has risen to 2.277%, while the 10-year bond yield increased by 1.5 basis points to 1.8575% [5][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The widening of the yield spread in the bond market is attributed to a change in institutional expectations rather than central bank tightening or liquidity issues, leading to a reduction in long-term bond allocations [1][7]. - The bond market has experienced significant volatility this year, influenced by various factors including the "stock-bond seesaw" effect and cautious institutional behavior as year-end approaches [7][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Most institutions maintain a conservative short-term outlook for the bond market but remain optimistic about the long-term trend, suggesting a focus on medium to long-term strategies [8]. - Analysts recommend that investors consider the current yield levels as potentially satisfying their return objectives for the coming year, while also advising caution in adjusting positions amid market fluctuations [8][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report In the second week of December 2025, significant meetings were held, focusing on the effectiveness of existing policies with limited new increments. After the previous adjustment, the bond market's cost - effectiveness became prominent. In the first half of the week, the bond market overcame negative factors, with the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds showing significant recovery, and China Development Bank bonds performing better than Treasury bonds. On Friday, the expectation of fiscal expansion led to profit - taking pressure, driving the bond market to correct again, and the 30 - year Treasury bond almost erased its previous gains. Throughout the week, the yield of the 1 - year Treasury bond active bond decreased by 1.25BP to 1.3875%, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond increased by 1.4BP to 1.8425%, and the yield of the 30 - year Treasury bond decreased by 0.45BP to 2.2470%. The central bank had a net injection of 47 billion yuan, the capital sentiment index was generally below 50, the capital market was stable and loose, the issuance price of 1 - year certificates of deposit of state - owned and joint - stock banks dropped to 1.6517%, and the weighted price of DR007 rose to 1.4691% [4][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Interest - rate Bond Market Review: Bond Market First Strong Then Weak after "Double Cut" Mentioned in Important Meetings - **Monday (December 8)**: The central bank had a net injection of 147 billion yuan in the morning. With better - than - expected exports in November and the adjustment of insurance business risk factors, the equity market opened high and moved higher. After the Politburo meeting in the afternoon, there was limited new information, and bond yields first decreased and then increased under the influence of easing expectations. The long - term and ultra - long - term bonds remained weak. The 7 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 0.25BP to 1.7325%, the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield increased by 0.40BP to 1.8325%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 0.85BP to 2.2600% [2][9][11] - **Tuesday (December 9)**: The central bank had a net withdrawal of 390 billion yuan in the morning. DR001 dropped below 1.3%. With the weak adjustment of the equity market and the conclusion of the Politburo meeting, the bond market sentiment stabilized marginally. China Development Bank bonds performed better than Treasury bonds. The 7 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.75BP to 1.7250%, the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield increased by 0.25BP to 1.8350%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.65BP to 2.2535% [2][12] - **Wednesday (December 10)**: The central bank had a net injection of 1015 billion yuan in the morning. Inflation data met expectations, the expectation of real - estate incremental policies increased, and the expectation of loose money spread. The bond market continued to recover throughout the day. The 30 - year Treasury bond active bond yield decreased by 1.65BP. The 7 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.85BP to 1.7165%, the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield remained unchanged at 1.8350%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1.75BP to 2.2360% [2][13] - **Thursday (December 11)**: The central bank had a net withdrawal of 622 billion yuan in the morning. With the continued adjustment of the equity market, the bond market continued to recover due to the stock - bond seesaw effect. At the end of the day, the Central Economic Work Conference mentioned "double cut", and the bond - buying sentiment briefly flared up, with yields accelerating the recovery. The 30 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by nearly 3BP. The 7 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1.65BP to 1.7000%, the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield decreased by 2.00BP to 1.8150%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 2.80BP to 2.2080% [2][14] - **Friday (December 12)**: The central bank had a net withdrawal of 193 billion yuan. The equity market opened low and moved high. The Financial Times quoted experts saying that the supply of ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds would increase next year. Profit - taking pressure drove most bond yields up. Treasury bonds with maturities over 5 years increased by 2 - 4BP, and the 30 - year Treasury bond almost erased all its previous gains. The 7 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 2.75BP to 1.7275%, the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield increased by 2.75BP to 1.8425%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 3.9BP to 2.2470% [3][15][16] 3.2 Capital Market The central bank had a net injection of 47 billion yuan through open - market operations (OMO), the capital sentiment index was generally below 50, and the capital market was stable and loose. The issuance price of 1 - year certificates of deposit of state - owned and joint - stock banks dropped to 1.65%, and the weighted price of DR001 dropped below 1.3% to 1.2747% [4][8] 3.3 Primary Issuance The net financing of Treasury bonds, policy - bank financial bonds, and local government bonds increased, while the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [5] 3.4 Benchmark Changes The term spreads of both Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds widened. Specifically, the yields of short - term Treasury bonds decreased by 1.37BP, and those of short - term China Development Bank bonds decreased by 1.99BP. The yields of long - term Treasury bonds decreased by 0.84BP, and those of long - term China Development Bank bonds decreased by 1.75BP. The short - term varieties of both Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds performed better than the long - term ones. In terms of the absolute level of term spreads, the 10Y - 1Y spread of Treasury bonds widened by 0.53BP to 45.17BP, and the 10Y - 1Y spread of China Development Bank bonds widened by 0.24BP to 37.90BP [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market rebounded slightly, with the yield curve continuing to steepen. Affected by the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, the bond market was bullish from Monday to Thursday, but turned weak on Friday due to concerns about bond supply pressure. Overall, long - term bond yields declined, and short - term bond yields declined more than long - term ones, resulting in a wider term spread. [3] - This week, the bond market is expected to oscillate weakly. Despite the weak fundamentals shown by November's economic data, the market reaction has been dull. With factors such as year - end profit - taking by institutions, the upcoming implementation of new regulations on public fund sales, expected increase in nominal GDP growth rate, and the stock - bond ratio, market sentiment remains cautious. [3] Summary by Sections 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market warmed up last week, with long - term bond yields declining slightly. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.09% for the whole week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.84bp and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1.37bp compared to the previous Friday, and the term spread continued to widen. [4] - On December 8, the bond market was weak in the morning and then recovered in the afternoon after the Politburo meeting mentioned a "moderately loose monetary policy". The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.19bp, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.02%. [4] - On December 9, after the Politburo meeting clarified the "moderately loose" monetary policy for 2026, the bond market oscillated bullishly. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.74bp, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.12%. [4] - On December 10, the release of worse - than - expected November PPI data and loose funds continued to boost the bond market. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.22bp, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.06%. [4] - On December 11, the Central Economic Work Conference's statement on maintaining liquidity drove the bond market to continue to recover. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.43bp, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.09%. [4] - On December 12, concerns about bond supply pressure led to a weak bond market. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased slightly by 0.08bp, and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.13%. [4][5] 1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 97 interest - rate bonds were issued, an increase of 19 compared to the previous week. The issuance volume was 12959 billion, a significant increase of 8652 billion, and the net financing was 3953 billion, an increase of 4751 billion. The issuance volume of Treasury bonds increased significantly, while that of policy - bank bonds and local bonds decreased. The net financing of all three types of bonds increased. [12] 2. Last Week's Important Events - In November, export growth rebounded unexpectedly, with a year - on - year increase of 5.9%, 7.0 percentage points faster than in October. Import growth was 1.9%, 0.9 percentage points faster than in October. [14] - The Politburo meeting on December 8 analyzed and studied the 2026 economic work, affirming the current economic situation and setting goals for next year. It is estimated that the 2025 GDP growth target will be set between 4.5% and 5.0%. [14] - In November, CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to rising vegetable prices and international gold prices. PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, with a slightly wider decline due to a higher base. [14][15] - In November, new RMB loans were 3900 billion, 1900 billion less than the same period last year, mainly due to weak domestic and external demand. New social financing was 24885 billion, 1597 billion more than the same period last year, mainly driven by increased corporate bond financing. [16] - The Central Economic Work Conference from December 10 - 11 set the tone for 2026's macro - policies, maintaining continuity and stability. It is expected that the low - price situation will ease, and there is room for macro - policies to stimulate growth. [16] 3. Real - Economy Observation - Last week, high - frequency production data showed mixed trends. Blast furnace operating rates and daily hot - metal production declined, while asphalt plant operating rates and semi - steel tire operating rates increased. [18] - From the demand side, the BDI index dropped significantly, the CCFI index rebounded slightly, and the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities rebounded slightly. [18] - In terms of prices, pork prices continued to decline slightly, and most commodity prices fell, including steel and oil, while copper prices rose. [18] 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's net open - market investment last week was 47 billion. [30] - R007 and DR007 both increased, the issuance rate of joint - stock bank certificates of deposit decreased slightly, and the discount rates of national and joint - stock banks' direct bills increased. [31] - The trading volume of pledged repurchase continued to increase, and the inter - bank market leverage ratio increased significantly. [31][32]

这正是理财估值整改与新型估值探索引发广泛热议的深层背景。传统估值方法高度依赖并敏捷反映市场 成交价格，在流动性充沛且不存在信用风险的利率债市场运转良好。然而，如果应用于信用债领域，则 可能面临"样本代表性问题"。 新华财经北京12月15日电（王菁）近期，多家银行理财公司试水新型第三方估值，在资管行业激起阵阵 涟漪。这一动向并非孤立事件，而是净值化转型步入深水区后，市场对债券估值公允性与稳定性的深切 追问。 随着政策定调"鼓励多估值源交叉验证"，行业讨论的焦点已悄然升级：从论证"为什么需要多个估值 源"，转向探寻"什么是能经得起市场检验的优质估值源"。这场寻"锚"之旅，正牵引着债券市场定价逻 辑的深层变革。 当前，市场对第三方估值体系的讨论也出现不同声音。 一方观点认为，资管新规要求采用净值法以来，主流第三方估值机构提供了净值计量的重要参考，特别 是在利率债领域，在债券市场建设方面发挥了积极作用。 另一方则指出，无论是银行理财还是公募基金，要想获取更高收益，信用债都是主要方向。全市场信用 债规模超50万亿元，除了部分大行二永债和部分高评级债券之外，大部分债券并没有活跃成交，仅靠每 天数百笔的信用债成交价格来决定 ...

国债期货方面 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 2025 年 12 月 15 日 债市观点及组合策略推荐 债券择券思路及个券关注 债券策略周报 20251215 当前债市策略的三个问题 glmszqdatemark [Table_Author] 分析师 徐亮 执业证书： S0590525110037 邮箱： xliang@glms.com.cn 针对当前债券市场，建议投资者可以关注三个问题： 1.为什么投资者在 30 年利率修复后的离场情绪浓厚？以 30 年活跃券 25T6 来衡 量本轮行情，其从 11 月中旬 2.13%左右上行 15BP 至 2.28%左右，其修复行情 从高点回落超过 8BP。如果投资者认为债市可以反转变好，那么继续关注利率下 行机会是合适的；但如果认为是反弹行情，在利率修复上行幅度的一半后，其继 续修复的空间和可能性则较小，此时应该及时降低关注。而当前可能使得债市反 转向好的因素需要关注两点，即央行是否在短期有降息可能性、银行保险等配置 力量有没有明显增加迹象。预计这两点在明年一季度中后期可能较为明显。 2.在 30-10Y 利差明显走扩后，1 ...

Group 1: Silver Fund Premium - The only silver fund in China has reached a historical high premium of 12%, indicating that investors are buying at a price higher than the actual asset value [9][10] - The fund manager has issued multiple warnings about the risks of blindly purchasing high-premium fund shares, suggesting potential significant losses for investors [7][10] - Investors in the silver fund need the silver price to increase by at least 12% to make a profit, or find someone willing to buy at a higher price, otherwise, they face compounded losses [10] Group 2: Yield Curve Steepening - The yield curve is becoming steeper, meaning that long-term interest rates are rising faster than short-term rates, which poses risks for long-term bond fund investors [11][16] - The recent steepening of the yield curve is attributed to an increase in long-term debt issuance and a shift in investment focus towards the stock market, leading to a gradual rise in interest rates [18] - The current economic policy outlook suggests that the steepening trend in the yield curve may continue, indicating a potential for long-term interest rates to rise further [18] Group 3: Market Imbalances - Both the silver fund and the bond market reflect structural imbalances that could lead to value corrections, highlighting the importance of understanding the underlying causes of market distortions [20] - The silver fund's popularity is influenced by external factors such as trade conflicts, while the bond market's previous low rates were a result of supply shortages during an asset scarcity period [20] - Investors are advised to be cautious of potential pricing bubbles driven by market distortions, especially when many retail investors are involved [20]

2025/12/14 20:50 BCA：美联储最友好政策遇上最窄涨幅——2026 年十大关键观点 | ZeroHedge 优质的 BCA：美联储最友善的政策遭遇最窄涨幅——2026 年⼗⼤关键观点 泰勒·德登 2025年12⽉14⽇，星期⽇ - 凌晨3:00 由 Dhaval Joshi 通过 BCAResearch.com 撰写， " 朋友们的帮助让我嗨翻天， "披头⼠乐队唱道。这⾸列侬和⻨卡特尼的歌曲道出了2025年股市的真谛。与流⾏的说法相 反，推动股市的主要因素并⾮特朗普的贸易战，也不是⼈⼯智能的狂热。股市的主要驱动⼒是美国实际利率的波动（图表 1）。 2025年，在美联储的扶持下，股市⼤幅上涨。2026年，美联储若采取更加友好的政策，可能会推动股市进⼀步⾛⾼。 话虽如此，即使是最好的朋友也⽆法创造奇迹。进⼊2026年，股市进⼀步上涨⾯临的最⼤挑战是，此轮上涨⾏情是史上最为 集中的。 如今，全球股市三分之⼆的市值集中在美国股市，其中40%的市值⼜集中在⼗只股票上，⽽这⼗只股票的命运都押注于⼀个 赌注：它们都将成为⼈⼯智能浪潮的赢家。结果是，全球股市超过四分之⼀的市值直接⾯临这⼀赌注失败的⻛险。 因此 ...

Policy Insights - The political bureau meeting emphasized "increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts," balancing growth stabilization and risk prevention for the medium to long term[2] - The central economic work conference provided detailed explanations of the political bureau's statements, confirming or refuting various market expectations[2] Interest Rate Dynamics - Long-term interest rates experienced significant volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.84% and the 30-year bond yield slightly decreasing to 2.25% during the week of December 8-12[11] - Market concerns regarding monetary policy for 2026 include whether there will be increased monetary easing and the extent of fiscal stimulus[3][4] Fiscal Policy Projections - The target fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is expected to remain around 4.0%, with new special bond issuance potentially increasing to approximately 5 trillion yuan and long-term special government bonds expanding to about 1.8 trillion yuan[4][24] - The projected increase in narrow deficit scale, special government bonds, and local special bond quotas for 2026 compared to 2025 is approximately 2.8 billion, 5 billion, and 6 billion yuan respectively, with a total increase in the range of 1.3 to 1.4 trillion yuan[4][24] Market Outlook - The combination of loose monetary policy and stable fiscal policy is expected to support the bond market in 2026[4][24] - The 10-year government bond yield is currently at 1.84%, close to the effective upper limit of 1.90%, indicating limited potential for adjustment in the bond market[6][30] Investment Strategies - For long-term investors, the focus should be on medium to long-term returns, as current yields may meet next year's return targets, suggesting gradual entry into the market[6][30] - For short-term traders, maintaining discipline and waiting for clearer signals before adjusting positions is recommended, with potential for small-scale contrarian operations during market adjustments[6][30] Risk Factors - Potential unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy shifts pose risks to market stability[7]

Fixed Income - The central economic work conference indicates a continuation of moderately loose monetary policy, suggesting that the current environment remains conducive to rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions [2][10] - The net financing scale of government bonds in 2026 is expected to slightly increase to around 14.5 trillion yuan, maintaining a stable issuance without significantly increasing supply pressure [10][12] - Social financing growth is projected to decline to approximately 7.3% in 2026, with a total increment of around 34 trillion yuan [10][12] - The bond market in 2026 may perform better than expected, with a potential policy interest rate cut of about 20 basis points anticipated [12][18] Pharmaceutical Industry - The collagen market shows significant potential, with animal-derived products having distinct advantages; Baijin Medical has three types of animal collagen products, with the first type recently approved [4][23] - The domestic market for animal-derived collagen in functional skincare and medical dressings is projected to reach 243 billion yuan by 2027 [23] - Baijin Medical is expected to submit 12 product registrations this year, with ongoing product launches anticipated, driving long-term growth [4][23] New Consumption - The CPI in November increased by 0.7%, primarily driven by rising food prices, marking the highest growth since March 2024 [28][29] - Lin Qingxuan, a high-end domestic skincare brand, reported a revenue of 1.052 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 98.3% [29][30] - The company has a strong offline presence with 554 stores, over 95% of which are located in shopping malls, positioning it as a leader among domestic and international high-end skincare brands [29][30] Metal New Materials - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut of 25 basis points has led to an increase in copper prices, with expectations of a supply-demand shift towards a shortage in the future [32][33] - The lithium market is experiencing strong demand, with lithium prices entering an upward cycle due to ongoing inventory depletion [35] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to a tight supply situation, with recent changes in export regulations from the Democratic Republic of Congo impacting the market [36] North Exchange - The recent adjustments to the North Exchange 50 and specialized indices are expected to enhance the quality and scale of listed companies, with a focus on performance and strong growth potential [39][40] - The market is showing signs of stabilization, with an emphasis on identifying undervalued assets and companies in strong growth sectors such as commercial aerospace and AI [40]

证券研究报告 | 固定收益定期 gszqdatemark 2025 12 14 年 月 日 固定收益定期 哪些力量能够帮助债市企稳？ 本周债市总体小幅走强，但过程中震荡明显。 本周债市在前半周逐步修复，周 四中央经济工作会议再度提及降准降息之后，利率下行明显，但周五却再度明 显调整并基本回吐此前涨幅。全周来看，10 年国债和 30 年国债均累计下行 0.8bps，分别至 1.84%和 2.25%。而 3 年和 5 年 AAA-二永债分别下行 3.9bps 和 0.4bps 至 2.02%和 2.24%。1 年 AAA 存单累计小幅上行 0.5bps 至 1.66%。 虽然债市情绪依然偏弱，但随着债市调整，我们也需要看到一些变化，可能成 为债市的企稳的支撑力量。从供给端来看，未来一段时期供给压力或将缓和。 从今年状况来看，政府债券供给任务基本已经完成，截止 12 月 12 日，普通 国债净融资 5.04 万亿元，特别国债净融资 1.8 万亿元，新增专项债发行 4.6 万亿元，新增一般债发行 7700 亿元，即使考虑到后续增加的 5000 亿地方债 结存限额使用，全年政府债券发行任务也基本完成。下周政府债券将净偿 ...