Report Overview - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the global asset market performance on August 1, 2025, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data [3][5][6] Global Bond Market 10 - Year Treasury Bond Yields - In major economies on August 1, 2025, the US was at 4.218%, the UK at 4.526%, France at 3.346%, etc. There were various changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change in the US was -0.172, and the one - year change was -0.067 [3] 2 - Year Treasury Bond Yields - Yields and their changes are presented for different countries. For instance, China (1Y) was at 3.940 on August 1, 2025, with a latest change of 0.080 [3] Exchange Rate Market Dollar against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On August 1, 2025, the exchange rate of the dollar against the Brazilian real was 5.542, with a latest change of -1.04%. There were also changes in weekly, monthly, and yearly periods [3] RMB Exchange Rates - The on - shore RMB was at 7.193, the offshore RMB at 7.194, etc. on August 1, 2025, with different changes in different time frames [3] Global Stock Index Market Major Economies' Stock Indices - As of August 1, 2025, the Dow Jones was at 6238.010, the S&P 500 at 43588.580, etc. There were different latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes. For example, the latest change in the Dow Jones was -1.60%, and the one - year change was 14.94% [3] Other Stock Indices - The report also includes data on the Russian, Japanese, and other countries' stock indices, such as the Nikkei at 40799.600 on August 1, 2025, with a latest change of -0.66% [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, etc. are provided. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3559.95 with a -0.37% change [5] Valuation - PE (TTM) and its环比 changes are given for CSI 300, S&P 500, etc. For example, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 13.12 with a -0.07环比 change [5] Risk Premium - The risk premium and its环比 changes are presented for some indices. For example, the 1/PE - 10 rate of the S&P 500 was -0.44 with a 0.22环比 change [5] Fund Flows - The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows for A - shares, the main board, etc. are shown. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was -522.29 [5] Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. are provided. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 15983.51 with a -3376.84环比 change [5] Main Contract Basis - The basis and basis ratio of IF, IH, and IC are given. For example, the basis of IF was -25.33 with a -0.62% basis ratio [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of T00, TF00, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of T00 was 108.435 with a 0.17% change [6] - The money market shows the R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M rates and their daily changes in basis points [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing an upward trend against the US dollar (USD), supported by strong domestic demand and encouraging retail sales data, despite short-term pressure from a strong USD index [1] Economic Indicators - July retail sales data in Australia exceeded expectations, providing solid support for the AUD [1] - Ongoing decline in inflation pressures offers the Reserve Bank of Australia greater flexibility in monetary policy [1] - A robust employment market further strengthens the economic fundamentals of Australia [1] Market Outlook - Analysts believe that structural advantages in the Australian economy will dominate exchange rate trends once market volatility subsides [1] - Most institutions anticipate that the AUD/USD exchange rate will gain upward momentum in the coming months as the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle nears its end [1] Upcoming Data - Market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming Australian business confidence index and employment data, which will further validate the sustainability of the economic recovery and provide new guidance for AUD movements [1] Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD exchange rate has shown a noticeable adjustment after reaching a peak of 0.6624, with short-term pullback momentum increasing [1] - The current RSI indicator is at 49.5615, indicating a neutral zone without overbought or oversold signals; however, a drop below 45 could signal further downside risks [1]

在亚市早盘交易中，美元指数走弱，原因是市场对美联储降息的预期不断上升，这降低了美国固定收益 资产的吸引力。美元指数下跌 0.3%，至 98.842。NAB 的雷·阿特里尔在一篇评论中表示，美元受到了一 系列因素的影响，包括美国非农就业报告表现不佳。美联储联邦基金 期货市场显示，美联储在 9 月降 息 25 个基点的可能性从非农就业报告公布前的约 40%提高到了 88%。外汇研究部门的负责人阿特里尔 还指出，美联储理事库格勒的辞职增加了美联储董事会更早采取行动降低利率的可能性。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report continues the previous analytical framework of "USD - mid - price - spot price" to judge the direction and rhythm of the USD/CNY exchange rate. With the "steep cooling" of the non - farm payrolls data, the spot exchange rate of USD/CNY will have increased volatility and a slowdown in appreciation expectations. Whether the 7.20 level is "effectively broken" depends on the policy signals from the mid - price. Currently, the mid - price of USD/CNY shows a clear "stabilizing" orientation. In the context of sufficient policy tools and reduced external pressure, the RMB has no one - way depreciation risk against the USD in the short term, with a short - term trading range of 7.15 - 7.23 and a central level around 7.20 [1][14]. - The report is cautious about the view that the US economy can withstand the impact of tariffs. The seemingly strong US economic data are just short - term fluctuations, and problems such as slow domestic demand growth, persistent inflation pressure, and weak investment activities remain unsolved. The July non - farm payrolls report indicates that the cooling of the US labor market has exceeded expectations, and the reliability and transparency of official employment data are declining [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Foreign Exchange Market Review - As of 16:30 on August 1, the US Dollar Index continued to appreciate compared to the previous Friday. The on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, Japanese Yen, Euro, and British Pound all remained under pressure against the US Dollar [3]. - Market quotes for various exchange rates are provided, including the USD/CNY mid - price, spot rates, and cross - exchange rates. For example, the USD/CNY mid - price increased by 0.108%, the USD/CNY spot rate rose by 0.596%, and the USD/CNH spot rate increased by 0.736% [4]. 3.2 USD/CNY Spot Exchange Rate Weekly Review - Last week, the US Dollar Index continued to rebound, supported by the market's selling pressure on the Euro due to the agreement between the US and Europe and overall positive economic data. The USD/CNY spot exchange rate also rose steadily. However, the weak non - farm payrolls data on Friday caused a significant drop in the US Dollar Index [9]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The report is skeptical about the view that the US economy can resist tariff impacts. The seemingly good economic data are short - term fluctuations, and underlying problems in the US economy persist. The July non - farm payrolls report is a key evidence. It shows that the cooling of the US labor market has exceeded expectations, and the reliability of official employment data is decreasing [10][12][13]. - The report continues the previous analytical framework. With the poor non - farm payrolls data, the volatility of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate will increase, and the appreciation expectation will slow down. The 7.20 level's "effective breakthrough" depends on the mid - price policy signals. In the short term, the RMB has no one - way depreciation risk against the USD, with a trading range of 7.15 - 7.23 and a central level around 7.20 [14]. 3.4 RMB Market Observation 3.4.1 Policy Tools Tracking - Counter - Cyclical Factor - As of last Friday, the mid - price of the USD/CNY exchange rate was reported at 7.1496, depreciating 77 basis points from the previous Friday [16]. 3.4.2 Investor Expectations and Sentiment Tracking - **Enterprise Sector Expectations**: In June 2025, banks settled 14900 billion RMB and sold 13083 billion RMB. From January to June 2025, cumulative settlements were 82135 billion RMB, and cumulative sales were 83950 billion RMB. In US dollars, June settlements were 2077 billion, and sales were 1823 billion. From January to June, cumulative settlements were 11432 billion, and cumulative sales were 11685 billion. Bank - customer foreign - related income and payments data are also provided [18]. - **Overseas Investor Expectations**: As of last Friday, the spread between the off - shore and on - shore RMB indicated a slight increase in overseas investors' depreciation sentiment towards the RMB against the USD [24]. - **Professional Investor Expectations**: As of last Friday, the 1 - year NDF closing price of USD/CNH was 7.0269, up from the previous Friday. Most risk - reversal option indicators (25Delta) showed a slight increase in the market's depreciation sentiment towards the RMB [26]. 3.4.3 Derivatives Market Tracking - **Hong Kong RMB Futures Market**: Charts of the Hong Kong Exchange's USD/CNH futures main - contract transaction price and related basis are provided [30][31]. - **Singapore RMB Futures Market**: Charts of the Singapore Exchange's USD/CNH futures main - contract transaction price and related basis are provided [33][35]. 3.5 Key Data and Events 3.5.1 One - Week Global Key Events Review - **China**: Sino - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm. The national childcare subsidy system was announced, with a subsidy of 3600 yuan per child per year. In June 2025, China had a trade surplus of 701 billion US dollars in goods and services. In 2024, the "Three New" economic added value was 24.29 trillion yuan, growing by 6.7%. The July manufacturing PMI was 49.3% [39][40]. - **US**: The US Treasury increased the borrowing estimate to 1 trillion US dollars this quarter. The June goods trade deficit narrowed by 10.8%. The second - quarter GDP grew by 3% annually. The July non - farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, with significant downward revisions to previous months' data. The US will resume "reciprocal tariffs" [41][42]. - **UK**: No key events were reported. - **Eurozone**: Although the general framework of the EU - US trade agreement was determined, details remained to be negotiated. The second - quarter GDP grew by 0.1% quarter - on - quarter and 1.4% year - on - year. Germany and Italy's economies contracted in the second quarter [43]. - **Japan**: No key events were reported. - **Other**: Australia's second - quarter CPI rose by 2.1% year - on - year. The Bank of Canada kept the interest rate at 2.75% [44][45]. 3.5.2 One - Week Global Central Bank Statements - **People's Bank of China**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm, and the suspension of part of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures will be extended for 90 days. The Politburo emphasized maintaining policy continuity and implementing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will strengthen foreign exchange monitoring and management [45][46]. - **Federal Reserve**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged. Trump made a series of tariff - related announcements. Fed理事Kugler will leave office early. New York Fed President Williams expects the US economic growth to slow to about 1% this year [48][50]. - **Bank of Japan**: The Bank of Japan kept the interest rate at 0.5% and raised the 2025 core CPI forecast [51]. - **European Central Bank**: ECB hawkish official Kazimir said the ECB is not in a hurry to cut borrowing costs [52]. - **Bank of England**: No statements were reported. - **Other**: The Bank of Korea's meeting minutes showed that most members considered further interest - rate cuts, and the bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 2.50% [54]. 3.5.3 This Week's Key Financial and Economic Data and Events - A list of key data and events for this week is provided, including US Treasury bill auction rates, Eurozone PPI, US trade data, and China's CPI and PPI [55]. 3.6 International Related Quotes 3.6.1 Major Countries' Exchange Rate Quotes - Charts of exchange rates such as the US Dollar Index, Euro/USD, USD/KRW, and others are provided [58][60]. 3.6.2 Correlation of Major Asset Classes - Charts of assets including the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX), Brent crude oil, London gold, and others are provided [80][81][83]. 3.6.3 Liquidity - Charts of central bank open - market operations, Shibor quotes, and SOFR quotes are provided [90][91][92]. 3.6.4 Sino - US Interest Rate Spread - Charts of Sino - US interest rate spreads at different tenors, 10 - year US Treasury yields, and 10 - year Chinese Treasury yields are provided [94][95]. 3.6.5 RMB Exchange Rate Index - A chart of the three major RMB exchange rate indices is provided [97].

Core Insights - China's cross-border travel revenue increased by 42% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1] - The service trade revenue grew by 13% year-on-year, with cross-border travel being a significant contributor [1] - The service trade deficit decreased by 14% year-on-year, indicating a narrowing gap between service trade income and expenditure [1] Economic Performance - The foreign exchange market in China showed strong resilience and vitality, performing better than market expectations [1] - The current account has been stable, with an increase in the international competitiveness of productive service trades such as computer information services and business services [1] - The overall balance of international payments is expected to remain stable due to ongoing economic structural optimization and financial market opening [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the depreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, highlighting recent exchange rate movements and the factors influencing these changes [1][3][6]. Exchange Rate Movements - On August 1, the central parity rate of the yuan against the US dollar was reported at 7.1496, a decrease of 2 basis points from the previous day [1]. - Both onshore and offshore yuan depreciated against the dollar, with the onshore rate at 7.2034 and the offshore rate at 7.2136, reflecting daily declines of 0.06% and 0.05% respectively [3][7]. - The yuan's exchange rate reached a two-month low, with a continuous decline over five days leading to a 0.38% drop in July [7]. Factors Influencing Exchange Rate - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) officials indicated that the yuan's exchange rate is influenced by multiple factors, including economic growth, monetary policy, and geopolitical risks [9][10]. - The PBOC emphasized that it does not seek to devalue the yuan for competitive advantages and aims to maintain a stable exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level [10][11]. Market Outlook - Analysts expect the yuan to stabilize at a reasonable equilibrium level in the second half of the year, supported by improving domestic economic conditions and anticipated interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve [10][12]. - The article notes that foreign capital inflows into Chinese assets are expected to continue, providing support for the yuan's stability [11][12]. Industry Impacts - The article outlines the potential impacts of yuan fluctuations on various industries, indicating that a stronger yuan could benefit import-dependent sectors while posing challenges for traditional export-oriented industries [14]. - Specific sectors such as textiles, aviation, and high-tech equipment may see advantages from a stronger yuan, while traditional foreign trade sectors may face difficulties [14].

Core Insights - The outlook for the Asia-Pacific foreign exchange market in the second half of 2025 is heavily influenced by potential trade agreements with the United States, which will determine the relative performance of Asian currencies, although the impact is expected to be temporary [2][5] - A long-term structural downtrend for the US dollar against Asian currencies is anticipated to persist, as doubts about the dollar's status may continue [2] Currency Performance Summary - The assessment of Asian currencies has been revised upward for Q2 2025 due to an earlier-than-expected decline in the US dollar, which is seen as a lasting trend [5] - Despite potential trade agreements, Asian economies are expected to face pressures, particularly in exports, which may be impacted by a rapid decline in the dollar's exchange rate against Asian currencies [5] - Central banks in Asia may need to intervene to slow the appreciation of their currencies, which could lead to tensions with the US government [5] Currency Scores - The currency scores for Q2 and Q3 2025 indicate varying expectations for different currencies against the US dollar: - CNY: -3 (Q2) to +1 (Q3) - HKD: 0 (Q2) to -1 (Q3) - KRW: -3 (Q2) to +2 (Q3) - TWD: -3 (Q2) to +3 (Q3) - SGD: -1 (Q2) to +3 (Q3) - MYR: -1 (Q2) to +1 (Q3) - THB: -2 (Q2) to +1 (Q3) - PHP: -1 (Q2) to +2 (Q3) - INR: -2 (Q2) to +2 (Q3) - IDR: -2 (Q2) to +2 (Q3) - VND: -3 (Q2) to +2 (Q3) [6] Trade Agreement Implications - A potential trade agreement between the US and China may not fully eliminate tariffs, which could continue to pressure the Chinese yuan [9] - The timing of any trade agreement will significantly influence the upward movement of Asian currencies, with China's situation likely benefiting Northeast Asian currencies more [9] Geopolitical Context - President Trump's threats regarding tariffs on countries aligning with BRICS nations reflect concerns over the dollar's status, potentially leading to further depreciation of the dollar [7] - The perception of threats to the dollar may prompt policy adjustments from the Trump administration, despite calls for a weaker dollar [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the content. The report mainly provides data on the performance of various global asset markets. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: - On July 30, 2025, yields in the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.372%, 4.603%, 3.358% respectively. Latest changes ranged from -0.029 to 0.073, weekly changes from -0.051 to 0.066, monthly changes from -0.057 to 0.157, and annual changes from -0.575 to 0.443 [3]. - **2 - year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: - On July 30, 2025, yields in the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.910%, 3.873%, 1.951% respectively. Latest changes ranged from -0.017 to 0.020, weekly changes from -0.008 to 0.175, monthly changes from -0.054 to 0.127, and annual changes from -1.081 to 0.486 [3]. - **USD Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies**: - On July 30, 2025, rates against the Brazilian real, South African rand, etc. were 5.571, 17.998, etc. Latest changes ranged from -0.06% to 0.61%, weekly changes from 0.13% to 2.68%, monthly changes from 0.11% to 2.70%, and annual changes from -9.45% to 0.14% [3]. - **Stock Indices of Major Economies**: - On July 30, 2025, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, etc. had values of 6362.900, 44461.280, etc. Latest changes ranged from -1.22% to 2.22%, weekly changes from -1.63% to 4.13%, monthly changes from 3.15% to 31.81%, and annual changes showed various trends [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: - A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 had closing prices of 3615.72, 4151.24, 2819.35, 2367.68, and 6314.69 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.17%, -0.02%, 0.38%, -1.62%, and -0.65% [5]. - **Valuation**: - PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 13.35, 11.40, and 30.97 respectively, with no环比 changes [5]. - **Fund Flows**: - Latest values of A - shares, main board, small - and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were -1164.11, -709.25, -, -366.27, and -41.53 respectively [5]. - **Trading Volume**: - Latest values of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - and medium - sized board, and ChiNext were 18442.79, 4451.68, 1125.97, 3578.93, and 4998.73 respectively, with环比 changes of 411.08, 164.04, 6.43, 11.72, and 76.38 [5]. - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: - IF, IH, and IC had basis of -14.84, 0.65, and -99.29 respectively, with amplitudes of -0.36%, 0.02%, and -1.57% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Percentage Changes**: - T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 had closing prices of 108.300, 105.630, 108.210, and 105.675 respectively, with percentage changes of -0.24%, -0.17%, -0.26%, and -0.17% [6]. - **Funding Rates**: - R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3642%, 1.6113%, and 1.5640% respectively, with daily changes of -25.00, 0.00, and 0.00 BP [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has significantly strengthened the US dollar, leading to a notable decline in gold prices, which hit a four-week low [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On Wednesday, the international spot gold price opened at $3325.85, reaching a high of $3333.94 and a low of $3267.70, closing at $3275.29, down $51.09 or 1.54% [1]. - The US dollar index opened at 98.92 points, peaked at 99.97 points, and closed at 99.94 points, up 1040 points or 1.05%, marking a five-week high [3]. - The Wellxin precious metals index (gold, silver, palladium, platinum) opened at 7022.10 points, fell to a low of 6766.65 points, and closed at 6839.58 points, down 184.12 points or 2.62%, reaching a three-week low [4]. Group 2: Economic Data Impact - The US ADP employment data for July showed an increase of 104,000, exceeding expectations and the previous month's decline of 33,000 [11]. - The second quarter GDP growth was reported at 3.0%, significantly above the expected 2.4% and the previous quarter's decline of 0.5% [13]. - The real estate market indicators suggest a peak in the US housing cycle, with the May national home price index at 326.994 points, down from April's 327.899 points, indicating a slowdown in price growth [15]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The dollar's strong upward movement has broken through quarterly resistance, while precious metals have seen significant declines, with gold prices confirming a breakdown below key support levels [6][19]. - The current market dynamics suggest that while the dollar is experiencing a bullish trend, gold prices are under pressure, indicating a potential for further declines if economic data continues to support the dollar [19][23]. - The gold price has tested the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous bull market, indicating a critical support point that may influence future price movements [23].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Asian stock market is showing increased sensitivity to global macroeconomic data, particularly after key countries release economic data and central bank policy updates [1] - Recent performance indicates a 0.7% decline in the MSCI Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) index, although it is still on track for a fourth consecutive month of gains [1] - The decline is primarily attributed to underwhelming economic activity in certain Asian economies and significant fluctuations in commodity prices [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for July in the region fell short of market expectations, indicating weakened business activity and raising concerns about the economic recovery outlook [1] - The Japanese yen strengthened following the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain interest rates while raising its annual inflation forecast, signaling a potential future interest rate hike [1] Group 3: U.S. Economic Context - The market is closely monitoring the trade agreement between the U.S. and South Korea, as well as the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [5] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates for the fifth consecutive time, with rare dissent from two members, indicating internal disagreements on the interest rate path [5] - Despite a stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter, core data suggests that economic momentum may be weakening [5] Group 4: Technology Sector Performance - Strong earnings reports from Microsoft and Meta have led to a 1.2% increase in Nasdaq futures and a 0.8% rise in S&P 500 futures, indicating robust profitability in large tech firms, particularly in cloud computing and AI advertising [6] - This performance provides positive support for the overall market [6] Group 5: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to closely monitor inflation and growth data from major economies, as uncertainty in monetary policy may lead to continued volatility in exchange rates and stock markets [6] - It is recommended that investors adjust their positions to manage risk exposure and capitalize on trading opportunities amid market fluctuations [6]