Group 1: Price Performance - The latest price of London Gold is 3380.55 with a change of 12.30 [1] - The latest price of London Silver is 36.13 with no change [1] - The latest price of London Platinum is 1264.00 with a change of -12.00 [1] - The latest price of London Palladium is 1045.00 with a change of 4.00 [1] - The latest price of WTI Crude is 68.51 with a change of -5.33 [1] - The latest price of LME Copper is 9639.00 with a change of 68.00 [1] - The latest value of the US Dollar Index is 98.38 with a change of -0.38 [1] - The latest exchange rate of Euro to US Dollar is 1.16 with a change of 0.01 [1] - The latest exchange rate of British Pound to US Dollar is 1.35 with a change of 0.01 [1] - The latest exchange rate of US Dollar to Japanese Yen is 146.14 with a change of 0.03 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - The latest COMEX silver inventory is 15501.65 with a change of 90.90 [1] - The latest SHFE silver inventory is 1247.10 with a change of 16.87 [1] - The latest gold ETF持仓 is 957.40 with a change of 7.16 [1] - The latest silver ETF持仓 is 14950.99 with a change of 200.71 [1] - The latest SGE gold deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [1] - The latest SGE silver deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [1] Group 3: Others - The data sources for the above charts are Bloomberg, Yong'an Yuandian Information, and Wind [3]

Core Points - The central bank's foreign exchange market has reported the RMB exchange rate against various currencies, indicating fluctuations in the value of the RMB [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate Changes - The USD/RMB rate is reported at 7.1656, showing a depreciation of 54 points, indicating an appreciation of the RMB [1] - The EUR/RMB rate is at 8.3106, reflecting an increase of 597 points [1] - The HKD/RMB rate is at 0.91283, down by 6.9 points [1] - The GBP/RMB rate is at 9.7018, up by 585 points [1] - The AUD/RMB rate is at 4.6426, increasing by 150 points [1] - The CAD/RMB rate is at 5.2194, down by 56 points [1] - The JPY/RMB rate is at 4.9137, up by 24 points [1] - The RMB/RUB rate is at 10.9442, increasing by 151 points [1] - The NZD/RMB rate is at 4.2938, up by 111 points [1] - The RMB/MYR rate is at 0.59761, increasing by 47.6 points [1] - The CHF/RMB rate is at 8.8174, up by 392 points [1] - The SGD/RMB rate is at 5.5877, increasing by 150 points [1]

Group 1 - The US dollar against the Japanese yen rose by 0.05%, closing at 146.17 yen, with a trading range of 148.03 to 146.00 yen throughout the day [1] - The euro against the Japanese yen increased by 0.52% [1] - The British pound against the Japanese yen saw a rise of 0.62% [1]

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes that the stock market is at a technical support level, but volatility has reached a new low since 2024, indicating that a trend change may be imminent [5][21]. - The A-share market's trading volume reached 1.12 trillion, an increase of 54.9 billion compared to the previous trading day, with market focus on stablecoins, port shipping, and solid-state batteries [21]. - The report suggests that the probability of an upward trend in the index is low, and managing positions is the best strategy [21]. Group 2: Bond Market Insights - The bond market is expected to benefit from inflows of risk-averse capital, as the overall market remains volatile with a lack of positive news [18][8]. - The report notes that the bond market may regain upward momentum due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [8]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Market Analysis - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1876, an increase of 91 basis points from the previous close, indicating a potential strengthening of the RMB [33]. - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term trend for the USD remains bearish [33]. Group 4: Commodity Market Trends - The Wenhua Commodity Index fell by 0.13%, with strong performance in the energy sector but poor performance in agricultural and chemical products [38]. - The report advises caution for investors who have not participated at lower levels, suggesting a wait-and-see approach due to high volatility in oil and related products [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From June 16th to June 20th, the Fed's June FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged, the Middle - East geopolitical situation further escalated, the US dollar index rose weekly, stocks and bonds were weak, and commodities continued to rise. In general, commodities > bonds > stocks in terms of USD - denominated assets [3][6]. - In China, from June 16th to June 20th, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries in May was lower than expected, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in May was higher than expected, and the year - on - year growth rate of urban fixed - asset investment from January to May was 3.7%, lower than expected. The year - on - year decline of national real estate development investment from January to May was 10.7%. The stock market declined, and the bond market and commodities rose. Generally, commodities > bonds > stocks [3]. - The market will focus on the Middle - East situation in the short term. The price fluctuations of related large - scale assets, especially energy prices, may increase. It is necessary to closely monitor the situation [3][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Large - scale Asset Overall Performance - **Global Stock Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the Middle - East situation increased market risk - aversion, and most global stock markets declined. European stocks performed poorly, and emerging markets were slightly more resilient than developed markets. The VIX index fluctuated weekly [8]. - **Global Bond Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the Fed's June FOMC meeting maintained the target range of the federal funds rate at 4.25% - 4.5%, in line with market expectations. The divergence of Fed officials' monetary policy expectations increased. Medium - and long - term US bond yields declined, and the 10 - year US bond yield fell 3BP to 4.38% weekly. The bond market fluctuated weekly. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [13]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the US macro data was generally stable, market risk - aversion increased, and the US dollar index rose weekly. Most major non - US currencies depreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated narrowly. The US dollar index rose 0.63% weekly [14]. - **Global Commodity Market**: The escalation of the geopolitical situation supported the high - level operation of international oil prices. Precious metal prices declined, and the prices of major agricultural products and non - ferrous metals showed mixed trends [16]. 3.2 Domestic Large - scale Asset Performance - **Domestic Stock Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the geopolitical situation continued to affect equity assets, and most major broad - based A - share indexes declined. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. In terms of style, large - cap blue - chips were relatively more resilient. Among sectors, banks had the highest gains, while pharmaceuticals and textile and apparel underperformed. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51% weekly [18]. - **Domestic Bond Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 799 billion yuan. The capital market remained stable overall. The bond market fluctuated strongly weekly. Generally, government bonds > credit bonds > corporate bonds [21]. - **Domestic Commodity Market**: The domestic commodity market rose overall. Among major commodity sectors, energy had the highest gains, while precious metals underperformed [22]. 3.3 Large - scale Asset Price Outlook - The market will continue to focus on the Middle - East situation in the short term. The price fluctuations of related large - scale assets, especially energy prices, may increase. It is necessary to closely monitor the situation [23].

Commodity Prices - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1279.934, up by 10.304 or 0.81% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1064.157, up by 20.048 or 1.92% [2] - Gold (COMEX GC) is priced at 3383.300, down by 1.100 or 0.03% [2] - Silver (COMEX SI) is priced at 36.080, up by 0.130 or 0.36% [2] Foreign Exchange Rates - EUR/USD is down by 0.51% at 1.146 [3] - GBP/USD is down by 0.49% at 1.338 [3] - USD/JPY is up by 1.29% at 147.982 [3] - AUD/USD is down by 1.11% at 0.638 [3] - USD/CHF is up by 0.06% at 0.819 [3] Virtual Currencies - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 101463.210, up by 499.340 or 0.49% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is up by 0.700 at 80.910 or 0.87% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 2247.010, up by 19.310 or 0.87% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 1.994, down by 0.023 or 1.14% [4] Treasury Bonds - The yield on the US 2-year Treasury bond is 3.923, up by 0.014 or 0.36% [5] - The yield on the US 5-year Treasury bond is 3.975, up by 0.014 or 0.35% [5] - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond is 4.384, up by 0.009 or 0.21% [5] - The yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond is 4.904, up by 0.015 or 0.31% [5] - The yield on the UK 10-year Treasury bond is 4.541, unchanged [5] - The yield on the German 10-year Treasury bond is 2.532, up by 0.017 or 0.68% [5] - The yield on the French 10-year Treasury bond is 3.266, up by 0.021 or 0.65% [5] - The yield on the Italian 10-year Treasury bond is 3.542, up by 0.015 or 0.43% [5] - The yield on the Japanese 10-year Treasury bond is 1.421, up by 0.028 or 2.01% [5]

Market Reaction - Asian markets opened in a typical risk-averse mode following the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, but there was no panic selling [1] - U.S. stock futures initially opened down about 1% but narrowed the decline to around 0.4% [1] - Oil prices surged initially, with WTI crude reaching $79 per barrel before retreating to $76, reflecting a 2.95% increase [5] - The dollar strengthened against the euro and most major currencies, with the dollar index rising 0.22% to 98.99 [7] - Gold prices initially spiked but then fell back, currently reported at $3,369 per ounce [9] Geopolitical Context - President Trump announced the completion of airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities, suggesting a potential regime change in Iran [1] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Iran's nuclear and missile programs have been significantly damaged, with military actions nearing completion [1] - Despite the escalating geopolitical tensions, Iran has not shown clear signs of retaliation, leading to a relatively restrained market response [2] Oil Market Implications - Analysts warn that if Iran were to block the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could spike to $120-$150 per barrel, significantly impacting the global economy [2][7] - The market is closely monitoring Iran's potential actions, with a 35% probability estimated for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [7] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, falling below the $100,000 mark for the first time since May, while Ethereum also saw substantial declines [10]

2025年6月23日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.1710，上调（人民币贬值）15点； 欧元/人民币报8.2509，下调94点； 港元/人民币报0.91352，上调1.9点； 英镑/人民币报9.6433，下调268点； 澳元/人民币报4.6276，下调253点； 加元/人民币报5.2250，下调142点； 100日元/人民币报4.9113，下调289点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报10.9291，上调186点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.2827，下调227点； 人民币/林吉特报0.59285，下调2.1点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.7782，下调105点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.5727，下调108点。 ...

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market shows an overall increase in interest rate bonds, with long-term bonds outperforming short-term ones. The report suggests that the stock market's low volatility and weak fundamentals will limit upward potential, indicating a likely downward adjustment in the future. The bond market is expected to benefit from inflows of risk-averse capital due to increasing geopolitical tensions [18][6][22]. Group 2: A-Share Market - The A-share market experienced a volume decline, with the ChiNext index falling by 0.84%. The total trading volume was 1.09 trillion, down by 0.19 trillion from the previous day, with 1,465 stocks rising and 3,455 stocks falling. The report emphasizes that under weak fundamentals, the probability of a bullish index is low, and future market movements are likely to amplify volatility downward. Investors are advised to take profits and shift to lower-priced dividend and agricultural stocks [22][24][27]. Group 3: U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market is currently in a state of consolidation, with the potential for a second adjustment. The report notes that the long-term U.S. Treasury bond issuance is facing challenges, with rates briefly exceeding 5%. The report anticipates that as U.S. Treasury rates rise, recession narratives may regain market focus, suggesting that investors should wait for better buying opportunities [27][8][29]. Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1843, a decline of 80 basis points from the previous close. The report indicates that the RMB has appreciated significantly due to unexpectedly positive trade data between China and the U.S. The offshore RMB shows signs of strengthening, with the previous high of 7.42 potentially marking the peak of this depreciation cycle. The RMB is expected to rise to around 7.1 [31][32]. Group 5: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index remained flat, with coal, polyester, and construction materials leading gains, while precious metals, coal chemicals, and non-ferrous sectors lagged. Given the high volatility in oil prices and geopolitical uncertainties, the report recommends a cautious approach. However, it notes a technical trend indicating stabilization at the bottom, suggesting that optimistic investors may consider light positions [36][10][37].

面对不可预测的美国政策以及全球贸易战带来的风险，交易员纷纷避开美元，欧元随之在全球外汇期权 市场中扮演起了更重要的角色。对比美国存管信托及清算公司(DTCC)今年头五个月与2024年最后五个 月的数据，可以看到约15%-30%与美元兑主要货币挂钩的合约已变成欧元。此外，还有迹象表明，欧元 正被用作避险资产（传统上由美元扮演的角色），以及用于押注大幅波动。 ...