第三条 公司住所是中国辽宁省鞍山市铁西区鞍钢厂区，邮政编码： 114021。 第四条 公司董事长为公司的法定代表人。公司董事长辞任的，视为同时辞去法 定代表人。法定代表人辞任的，公司将在法定代表人辞任之日起三十日内确定新的法 定代表人。 | | | 目 录 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第一章 | 总则 | ···························································································1 | | 第二章 | | ··············································································2 经营宗旨和范围 | | 第三章 | | 股份和注册资本 ··············································································2 | | 第四章 | | ··········································· ...

政策干预叠加情绪退潮，商品市场"急刹车"后的危与机 哈喽各位老乡，帮主郑重来了！二十年财经老炮儿，陪大家穿越牛熊。今儿这行情，真是冰火两重天——上周还烈火烹油的焦煤、焦炭，今天突然集 体"速冻"，玻璃、纯碱、工业硅也跟着扑通跌停，期货盘面一片"绿油油"。群里炸锅了，都在问："反内卷行情结束了？资金跑路了吗？" 二、资金往哪跑？A股"跷跷板效应"浮现 商品期货跌得惨，A股却悄悄分化。煤炭、钢铁板块挨了重锤，柳钢、山西焦煤跌超5%，但另一边——算力、AI、影视股逆势狂欢： • 算力硬件集体暴动：上海甩出6亿"算力券"，租用智能算力最高补100%租金！PCB龙头大族数控、胜宏科技直接涨停创新高； • 影视股"暑期档红利"：幸福蓝海、中国电影一字板，暑期票房爆款预期升温； • 创新药出海大突破：恒瑞医药联手GSK，一笔125亿美元大单引爆板块，出海逻辑再成主线。 一、跌停潮背后：政策出手，炒作情绪紧急"降温" 今天这波大跌，直接导火索是交易所的"紧箍咒"。上周五盘后，大商所突然对焦煤动手：单日开仓量直接砍到500手以内，其他合约也限到2000手。广期 所紧随其后，碳酸锂也被套上开仓限制。政策一出，热钱瞬间"熄火"—— ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 一、景气向上 ： 1 、物价："反内卷"情绪延续，国内资源品价格继续大幅上涨。 山西产动力末煤 (Q5500) 秦皇岛港 平仓价、京唐港山西主焦煤库提价、钢之家焦炭价格指数、螺纹钢上海现货价、铁矿石价格指数 :62%Fe:CFR 中国北方、南华玻璃指数分别上涨 1.7% 、 16.7% 、 7.7% 、 5.5% 、 4.3% 、 26% 。 2 、土地溢价率回升。 7 月 20 日当周，百城土地溢价率回升至 7.8% ，近三周平均为 6.5% 。 6 月 为 5.47% 。 3 、贸易：港口集装箱吞吐量有所反弹 。 7 月 20 日当周，我国港口集装箱吞吐量环比 +2.6% ，上 周为 -0.9% ；四周累计同比为 4.3% ，上周为 4.4% 。 二、景气向下： 1 、华创宏观 WEI 指数继续回落。 截至 7 月 20 日， WEI 指数为 5.84% ，较 7 月 13 日下行 0.12% 。 4 月以来，上行的主要因素是沥青开工率、乘用车批零。 2 、 ...

Market Overview - The market is expected to continue rising in August, driven by liquidity conditions[5] - As of July 28, the Wind All A Index surpassed its peak from October 8 of the previous year, indicating a bullish market sentiment[5] Market Drivers - The upward market movement is attributed to ample incremental capital and improved supply-demand dynamics, particularly in cyclical stocks[7] - Recent trends show a significant increase in public and retail investor participation, with new fund issuance in June reaching nearly 30 billion, the highest monthly level since 2022[8] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on large financial and technology assets, highlighting the potential for banks and insurance companies to benefit from reduced economic risks and lower liability costs[9] - Technology assets are suggested for contrarian trading due to their low trading congestion, with historical performance showing a strong correlation with trading dynamics[9] Key Stock Recommendations - The August stock selection includes: Hong Kong Tech 50 ETF, Fuda Co., Su Neng Co. (automotive), Zhujiang Co., Core International (trading), Wanhua Chemical, Dongcai Technology (chemicals), and others[17] - The report emphasizes the importance of sectors like steel and pharmaceuticals, which are expected to perform well due to demand recovery and policy support[9] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected economic downturns and insufficient policy support, which could impact market performance[18]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant reduction in the proportion of stocks with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1-2x, dropping from approximately 45% in early April to below 30% by late July, indicating a market trend towards eliminating low PB stocks [1][11][12] - Historical analysis shows that the complete elimination of 1-2x PB stocks occurred only during specific periods, such as 2014-2015, driven primarily by active leverage in the market [14][17][22] - The report identifies necessary but insufficient conditions for the systematic elimination of 1-2x PB stocks, including the continuous expansion of profit effects, influx of incremental funds, and alignment of fundamental expectations across various styles [2][26] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" phenomenon is characterized by a two-phase excess return path in heavy asset industries, transitioning from "ROA→, PB↑" to "ROA↑, PB→" [3][36] - The report references the previous supply-side structural reforms in 2016, where industries like coal and steel experienced significant price and volume reversals, driven by policy changes that addressed overcapacity [29][32] - Current core industries under the "anti-involution" theme include photovoltaic materials, cement, and basic chemicals, with a focus on selecting companies that maintain cash flow despite profit losses [39][43]

广发期货研究所负责人张晓珍认为，外部因素也显著放大了市场波动，美联储7月议息会议临近，市场对降息 预期降温，美元指数反弹，对大宗商品整体估值形成压制。同时，中美贸易谈判及关税最后期限的不确定性， 使避险情绪进一步抑制了风险资产表现。 热门期货品种的调整仍在继续！ 28日晚间，夜盘交易时段，多个期货品种在日盘交易跌停的基础上，出现进一步调整。其中，焦煤跌幅一度超 11%，玻璃跌幅一度超8%，纯碱跌幅一度超5%。 28日下午收盘，焦煤、玻璃、纯碱、工业硅、焦炭、碳酸锂期货主力合约均收于跌停板。 随着资金退潮，黑色系产品和基建类产品的调整仍未结束。在期货市场调整的同时，现货市场也出现同步回 落，钢铁焦炭等现货价格出现降温。山西一家煤焦企业人士告诉记者，在上周五夜盘大跌的情况下，现货市场 情绪有所降温，市场交投也趋于谨慎，部分涨幅较大的焦煤竞拍价格下跌，流拍率有上升迹象。 另外，根据我的钢铁网统计，7月28日，国内钢材市场下跌，唐山迁安普方坯资源出厂含税跌30元/吨，报3090 元/吨。全国31个主要城市20mm三级抗震螺纹钢均价3421元/吨，较上个交易日下跌50元/吨。全国24个主要城 市4.75mm热轧板卷均价 ...

Market Overview - The major market indices mostly rose last week, with the STAR Market 50 index showing the largest weekly increase of 4.63%[20] - The average daily trading volume of the Wind All A index increased to 18,486.97 billion yuan, up from 15,462.51 billion yuan, indicating a high trading activity level[33] - As of July 25, 2025, the Wind All A valuation (PE TTM) was 20.73, an increase of 0.31 from the previous week, reflecting a recovery in valuations across sectors[40] Sector Performance - Among 30 major sectors, 27 sectors experienced gains, with the materials sector leading with an increase of 5.26%, followed by the energy sector at 4.38%[24] - Notable performers included construction materials (up 8.20%), coal (up 7.98%), and steel (up 7.67%), while banking, telecommunications, and utilities sectors saw declines of 2.87%, 0.77%, and 0.27% respectively[30] Policy and Economic Outlook - Recent policies are not indicative of immediate expansion in cyclical commodities, as the current "anti-involution" policies resemble last year's "trade-in" initiatives rather than comprehensive supply-side reforms[12] - The central urban work conference did not introduce additional macroeconomic stimulus policies, suggesting a tightening of fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies in the future[12] - The geopolitical implications of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project are emphasized, indicating a focus on energy security and sustainable regional development rather than traditional infrastructure expansion[12] Investment Recommendations - It is advised to focus on technology and military sectors, as well as dividend assets outside the banking system, to navigate the current market conditions[18]

Report Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is under triple pressure, but a short - term small - scale rally may be expected. The bond market sentiment was suppressed due to the triple factors of the "anti - involution" sentiment driving up commodity prices, the continuous improvement of the stock market diverting funds, and the marginal improvement of some macro signals boosting risk appetite. From July 21st to 25th, the bond market underwent a rapid adjustment, with the yields of government bonds, policy - bank bonds, local government bonds, and credit bonds of all tenors rising across the board. Currently, there is a phased bullish view on the bond market, and the 10Y government bond yield may return to around 1.65%. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will significantly cut interest rates in 2026, presenting prominent opportunities in short - to medium - term US Treasury bonds [3][11][83]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro News - From January to June this year, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 3.44 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The total operating income was 66.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%, and the operating cost was 57.12 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. The operating profit margin was 5.15%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.22pct. On July 19th, the construction ceremony of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project was held. The project has a total investment of about 12 trillion yuan and a total installed capacity of about 60 million kilowatts. On December 18, 2025, the full - island customs closure of Hainan Free Trade Port will be officially launched. The scope of "zero - tariff" goods will be expanded to about 74% of all commodity tariff items, an increase of nearly 53 percentage points compared to before the closure. On July 23rd (local time), US President Trump stated that he would impose simple tariffs of 15% to 50% on most other countries in the world. On July 24th (local time), EU member states overwhelmingly passed a decision to impose tariffs on US products worth 93 billion euros [12][15]. 2. Medium - term High - frequency Data 2.1 Consumption - As of July 20th, the daily average retail volume of passenger car manufacturers was 58,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 16.8%, and the daily average wholesale volume was 58,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. As of July 25th, the total box office revenue of domestic movies in the past 7 days was 984.43 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 33.6% but an increase of 110.2% compared to a month ago. As of July 11th, the total retail volume of three major household appliances was 2.471 million units, a year - on - year increase of 26.5%, and the total retail sales were 5.81 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 28.9% [13][21]. 2.2 Transportation - As of July 20th, the container throughput of ports was 6.642 million TEUs, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. As of July 25th, the CCFI composite index was 1261.4, a year - on - year decrease of 42.2%. The average daily subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the past 7 days was 39.519 million person - times, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2% but an increase of 1.0% compared to a month ago. As of July 20th, the postal express pick - up volume was 3.67 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 13.8% but a decrease of 10.0% compared to 4 weeks ago. The railway freight volume was 80.488 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, and the highway truck traffic volume was 53.431 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.0% [26][28][31]. 2.3 Capacity Utilization - As of July 23rd, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of major steel enterprises in China was 77.6%, a year - on - year increase of 2.3 percentage points. As of July 24th, the average asphalt capacity utilization rate was 26.0%, a year - on - year increase of 3.0 percentage points. As of July 24th, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 82.8%, a year - on - year decrease of 6.5 percentage points, and the PVC capacity utilization rate was 74.9%, a year - on - year increase of 1.8 percentage points. As of July 25th, the average PX capacity utilization rate was 80.8%, and the average PTA capacity utilization rate was 80.7% [34][37]. 2.4 Real Estate - As of July 18th, the transaction area of second - hand houses in 9 sample cities decreased by 16.0% compared to 4 weeks ago. As of July 25th, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days was 1.564 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.6% [41][42]. 2.5 Prices - As of July 25th, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.7 yuan per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 17.5% but an increase of 2.4% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average wholesale price of vegetables was 4.4 yuan per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% but an increase of 0.5% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average wholesale price of 6 key fruits was 7.1 yuan per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% and a decrease of 4.2% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average price of thermal coal at northern ports was 641 yuan per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 24.5% but an increase of 4.7% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of WTI crude oil was 65.7 US dollars per barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7% and a decrease of 2.5% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of rebar was 3310.4 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% and an increase of 7.9% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of iron ore was 799.6 yuan per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% but an increase of 10.8% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of glass was 15.1 yuan per square meter, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8% but an increase of 9.2% compared to 4 weeks ago [46][49][54]. 3. Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On July 25th, R001 was 1.55%, up 15.10BP from July 21st; R007 was 1.69%, up 19.60BP from July 21st. DR001 was 1.52%, up 15.65BP from July 21st; DR007 was 1.65%, up 16.22BP from July 21st. Most government bond yields rose. On July 25th, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bonds were 1.39%, 1.59%, 1.73%, and 1.98% respectively, up 4.1BP, 6.0BP, 6.8BP, and 8.7BP respectively from July 18th. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.52%, 1.70%, 1.81%, and 2.08% respectively, up 4.6BP, 9.5BP, 9.0BP, and 5.2BP respectively from July 18th. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year local government bonds were 1.44%, 1.67%, and 1.83% respectively, up 5.2BP, 6.2BP, and 6.1BP respectively from July 18th. The yields of 1 - month and 1 - year AAA and AA + inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.57%, 1.67%, 1.58%, and 1.70% respectively, up 6.0BP, 5.3BP, 6.0BP, and 5.3BP respectively from July 18th. As of July 25th, 2025, the 10 - year government bond yields of the US, Japan, the UK, and Germany were 4.4%, 1.6%, 4.6%, and 2.8% respectively, down 4BP, up 8BP, down 4BP, and up 6BP respectively from July 18th. On July 25th, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan were 7.14 and 7.17 respectively, down 79 and 87 pips respectively from July 18th [56][61][70]. 4. Institutional Behavior - As of July 27th, the net - loss rate of public - offering wealth management products of wealth management companies was about 1.2%, down 0.77 percentage points from 1.97% at the beginning of the year, and the current percentile of the net - loss rate within the year was 36.7%. Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds investing in interest - rate bonds has shown a trend of first decreasing and then increasing, with a slight decline in the past week. On July 25th, 2025, the estimated average duration was about 5.3 years, a decrease of about 0.17 years compared to the previous week (July 18th), and the weekly data showed the first decline since early May. The duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds investing in credit bonds has shown a fluctuating trend since the beginning of 2025, and has risen rapidly in the past two weeks. On July 25th, 2025, the estimated median duration was about 2.5 years, and the estimated average duration was about 2.6 years, an increase of about 0.3 years compared to the previous week (July 18th) [77][80][81]. 5. Investment Recommendations - Currently, there is a phased bullish view on the bond market, and the 10Y government bond yield may return to around 1.65%. In 2025, there is no trend - based bond market rally, so it is advisable to take profits in a timely manner. Due to the rapid adjustment of the bond market and the rapid reduction of the duration of bond funds, it is believed that the bond market risks may have been mitigated. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will significantly cut interest rates in 2026, presenting prominent opportunities in short - to medium - term US Treasury bonds [83].

今日盘面大幅回落。螺纹表需环比回暖，产量小幅回升，库存低位小幅下降。热卷需求有所回落，产量继续下滑，库存小幅累 积。铁水产量维持高位，低库存格局下，市场负反馈压力不大，成本抬升对钢价形成明显支撑。从下游行业看，地产投资继续 大幅下滑，基建、制造业投资增速放缓，内需整体依然偏弱，出口维持相对高位。 "反内卷"有所降温，由于近一段时间涨幅 较大，相关工业品全线大幅回落，短期相对承压，波动明显加剧，关注商品市场整体风向变化。 【铁矿】 铁矿 今日盘面走弱。 供应端，本期铁矿全球发运环比增加，强于去年同期水平，其中澳洲发运大幅反弹，巴西和非主流发运有 所回落。国内到港量本期继续回落，短期仍然受到前期海外发运季节性下滑的影响。需求端，终端需求淡季弱稳，钢厂盈利情 况较好，现阶段主动减产动力不足，上周铁水产量高位基本持稳。反内卷带来的乐观情绪有所降温，盘面波动开始加剧。铁矿 受反内卷直接影响较小，目前基本面变化不大，预计走势震荡为主。 | | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年07月28日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ...

| 网材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年7月28日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3430 | 3380 | 50 | 31 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3380 | 3340 | 40 | -19 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3510 | 3470 | 40 | 111 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3418 | 3378 | 40 | 12 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3356 | 3294 | 62 | 74 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3399 | 3353 | 46 | 31 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3500 | 3470 | 30 | -18 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3440 | 3410 | 30 | -78 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | ...