1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts and iron ore supply disturbances have led to a strong cost side, with high energy valuations and tight liquidity expectations for some iron ore spot varieties. Although iron - water production has dropped due to environmental restrictions, there is an upward expectation during the peak season. The prices of iron ore and coking coal are likely to rise and difficult to fall, which boosts the sector's valuation. However, the off - season fundamentals lack highlights, and the peak - season expectations are cautious, with limited upward drive from the real end. Attention should be paid to geopolitical and iron ore supply disturbances [1][2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Short - term oscillation is expected, but the high - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term, maintaining a loose pattern. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure will be large, and the medium - term performance is expected to be weakly oscillating [2][10] - **Scrap Steel**: The short - term supply - and - demand pattern of the scrap - steel market has marginally improved, with demand recovery slightly faster than supply. The fundamentals support the price. Driven by the rise in finished - product prices, scrap steel is expected to follow the upward trend, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the price rebound and the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [2][12] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, although iron - water production is disturbed, there is still long - term rigid demand support. After the first round of price cuts, the possibility of continuous multiple - round cuts is small. The futures market is expected to follow coking coal. If the geopolitical conflict persists, it may be strong with energy prices; if it eases, it will oscillate [3][13] - **Coking Coal**: The resumption of coal - mine production is limited, but with high Mongolian coal imports, there is real - world pressure on the fundamentals. The spot market is expected to oscillate. The futures price is affected by macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts. If the conflict persists, it may follow crude - oil prices; if it eases, it will oscillate [3][14] 3.3 Alloys - **Silicomanganese (MnSi)**: The market supply and demand are loose, with high upstream inventory. There is resistance in cost transmission, and there is significant selling - hedging pressure above the futures price. When the futures price rises above the cost line, there is a risk of a high - level correction [3][18] - **Ferrosilicon (FeSi)**: Currently, the supply - and - demand contradiction is not significant, but the continuous profit repair may accelerate the resumption of production, making the supply - and - demand relationship gradually loose. The current futures valuation is higher than the comprehensive cost, and attention should be paid to the risk of a high - level correction [3][20] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. The current supply and demand are in surplus. If production and sales do not improve continuously, high inventory will always suppress prices, and short - term oscillation is expected [7][15] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply and demand are in surplus. Short - term oscillation is expected, and in the long run, the surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [7][17] 3.5 Steel - After the festival, downstream demand has gradually started, and price rebounds have stimulated the entry of futures and spot markets and rigid - demand restocking. The production of rebar has increased significantly, but the production of hot - rolled coils has decreased. The overall supply of the five major steel products is still low. Demand shows resilience but lacks highlights. Steel inventory continues to accumulate, but at a slower pace. The upward price increase is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and peak - season demand [9] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 12, 2026, the comprehensive index, special index (including commodity 20 index, industrial product index, PPI commodity index), and plate index (steel industry chain index) all showed varying degrees of increase [105][106]

Group 1: Investment Strategy and Market Analysis - The report emphasizes the investment value of the Bank of China CSI All-Index Free Cash Flow ETF (563760), highlighting its large scale and liquidity advantages in the market [1][6][9] - It discusses the current economic environment characterized by a Kondratiev wave downturn, suggesting that cash flow assets are superior "safe assets" during this period [6][7] - The report predicts that 2026 will be a "value investment year" in China, with cash flow assets expected to undergo systematic revaluation due to improved cash flow generation capabilities of Chinese companies [7] Group 2: Company Overview - Jiu Li Special Materials (002318.SZ) - Jiu Li Special Materials is pursuing a strategy focused on high-end products, international expansion, and platform development, which is expected to drive growth in various sectors including nuclear power and aerospace [2][10][11] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.789 billion, 1.999 billion, and 2.228 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.83, 2.05, and 2.28 CNY [10] - The report assigns a target price of 42.85 CNY per share for 2026, based on a PE ratio of 23, and initiates coverage with a "buy" rating [2][10] Group 3: Company Overview - Far East Horizon (03360.HK) - Far East Horizon reported total revenue and net profit of 35.785 billion and 3.889 billion CNY for 2025, reflecting a year-over-year change of -5.20% and +0.67% respectively [14][15] - The company has optimized its liability structure, resulting in a significant increase in net interest margin, with a net interest margin of 4.39% for 2025, up by 0.39 percentage points year-over-year [15] - The report maintains a "buy" rating, forecasting net profits of 4.061 billion, 4.254 billion, and 4.367 billion CNY for 2026 to 2028, indicating a positive growth outlook [14][15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the war between the US, Israel and Iran disrupting Middle - East crude oil and raw material exports, many Asian refineries and petrochemical enterprises are cutting production capacity and declaring force majeure [3]. - For crude oil futures, in the medium - term, three variables need to be focused on: the sustainability of geopolitical risk premium, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy implementation rhythm. It is recommended to trade within a range and avoid unilateral chasing [4]. - For the stock market, the adjustment in the early trading tomorrow is a good low - buying opportunity. The market showed strength today as it did not decline when it should [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The war between the US, Israel and Iran has disrupted Middle - East crude oil and raw material exports. Asian steam cracking plants with over 60% of naphtha raw materials from the Middle - East have declared force majeure [3]. - Three operators are reducing production loads to use raw material inventory for the next month to avoid full - scale shutdown. Restarting a steam cracking unit takes up to two weeks, and factories usually don't store more than a month's worth of raw materials [3]. - In the medium - term, focus on three variables: the sustainability of geopolitical risk premium (the 8 - 10 dollars/barrel premium will fade if the strait passage recovers), supply - demand fundamentals (OPEC + production cuts and slow US shale oil production increase form a tight balance, but global demand recovery is weak), and policy implementation rhythm (US measures to stabilize oil prices and OPEC + production adjustments will determine the volatility center). It is recommended to trade within a range (Brent: 80 - 100 dollars/barrel, SC crude: 600 - 800 yuan/barrel) and set stop - losses, avoiding overnight positions [4]. Stock Market - The market adjustment today was slightly weak, with the Shanghai Composite Index being relatively strong. The fact that it didn't decline when it should indicates strength. The adjustment in the early trading tomorrow is a good low - buying opportunity [6][7]. Gold - The daily - level red - green line of gold has turned to a volatile state. The daily amplitude of gold is small, maintaining in the range of 1140 - 1155. It should be treated with a volatile mindset [10]. Iron Ore - Australian and Brazilian shipments maintain a normal rhythm. In the medium - to long - term, it is in the mine production capacity release cycle, with a loose supply expectation. On the demand side, steel mills are resuming production after the festival, but the terminal demand needs time to start. Technically, the commodity sentiment is high recently, and iron ore is running strongly. A bullish view can be maintained [12][13]. Glass - The daily melting change is small. In the seasonal off - season, factory inventories are accumulating. The post - festival resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises needs to be concerned. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall commodity sentiment. Technically, it rebounded today and should be treated as a wide - range volatile market [17][18]. Methanol - Iran is the world's second - largest methanol producer and a major methanol exporter, significantly affecting global methanol supply. Driven by Middle - East geopolitical emergencies, methanol has had continuous large fluctuations. With a significant reduction in supply, it has entered a destocking channel, and the methanol port inventory decreased by 13.07 tons this week [21]. Pulp - Most pulp and paper plants have resumed normal production schedules, with some undergoing maintenance. Domestic port inventories are continuously increasing and under pressure. The downstream paper mills' operating loads are expected to continue to increase. Due to low paper enterprises' gross profits, there is an expectation of price increases for cultural paper and white cardboard, which may support pulp prices [24].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - CSN achieved a 15% increase in EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by record volumes in mining and logistics, lower steel costs, and a recovering cement price environment [3][4] - The company reported an EBITDA of BRL 11.8 billion for the year, representing a 15% growth compared to the previous year [9] - The leverage indicator reached 3.47 times, marking the first increase after three consecutive quarters of decline due to increased investments and expenses [12][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In mining, CSN recorded the second-largest production and sales volume in its history, exceeding 45 million tons for the first time, which is an 8.4% annual growth since the IPO in 2021 [5][18] - The steel segment saw a reduction in production costs, reaching the lowest levels since 2021, contributing to a consolidated growth of 2.6% in annual average prices despite challenges from imports [16][17] - The cement segment experienced a slight drop in net revenue due to seasonality, but the annual performance showed the highest revenue recorded for the company, with profitability close to 30% in the second half of the year [21][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The logistics segment achieved record EBITDA for the year, with a margin of 44%, slightly below the previous year due to lower contributions from the port modal [23] - The energy segment also reported historical records, with a 79% growth in EBITDA and an adjusted margin of 54% [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - CSN announced a strategic movement to improve its capital structure, aiming to raise up to BRL 18 billion to reduce leverage and facilitate growth [4][13] - The company is prioritizing results over volume in its cement strategy, reflecting a shift in focus towards profitability [6] - Investments in logistics and energy are seen as key pillars for organic growth, with a new logistics sub-segment being developed [7][23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the operational resiliency of the company, despite challenges from seasonality and external market pressures [3][4] - The outlook for 2026 is positive, with expectations of increased performance in cement and steel, while mining and logistics will benefit from operational efficiencies [9][34] - Management highlighted the importance of anti-dumping measures to support local producers and stabilize the market [6][30] Other Important Information - The company reported a significant release of working capital during the quarter, reflecting a higher volume of iron ore purchases from third parties [11] - CSN's ESG initiatives included investments of BRL 750 million in environmental management and a commitment to reducing CO2 emissions [25][26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Details on the disinvestment plan and timing for operations - Management confirmed that the signing of processes is expected in the third quarter of this year, with several proposals received from potential buyers [37][38] Question: Insights on steel price initiatives and market dynamics - Management indicated a forecasted price increase of 4.5% to 6% for the first quarter, with expectations of stable volumes in steel [40][41] Question: Concerns regarding imports and anti-dumping measures - Management acknowledged ongoing concerns about imports from countries like Korea and emphasized the importance of anti-dumping measures to protect the domestic market [46][52] Question: Clarification on net debt increase and cash flow - Management explained that the increase in net debt was due to concentrated investments and prepayment variations, with a focus on improving cash flow in the future [62]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US February CPI annual rate was 2.4%, and the core CPI annual rate was 2.5%, in line with market expectations. Due to concerns about the escalation of the Middle - East conflict, energy prices rose again, the US dollar index rebounded, and global risk appetite cooled. Domestically, China's economic sentiment in February showed a slight slowdown, but exports exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover, with the economy and inflation remaining relatively stable. The government work report's 2026 development targets and policy intensity are lower than in 2025. The market's trading logic currently focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks. In the short - term, with the decline in global inflation expectations, market sentiment has improved, and the stock index has rebounded. [2] - For assets: The stock index may experience increased short - term volatility, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Treasury bonds will be in short - term oscillation, and cautious observation is advised. In the commodity sector, black metals will be in short - term oscillation, and short - term cautious observation is recommended; non - ferrous metals will be in short - term oscillation, and short - term cautious observation is recommended; energy and chemical products will be in short - term oscillation with an upward bias, and cautious long positions are recommended; precious metals will be in short - term oscillation, and cautious long positions are recommended. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as chemicals, batteries, and coal, the domestic stock market has rebounded in the short - term. Fundamentally, China's economic sentiment in February showed a slight slowdown, but exports exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover. The government work report's 2026 development targets and policy intensity are lower than in 2025. The market's trading logic focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks. In the short - term, with the decline in global inflation expectations, market sentiment has improved, and the stock index has rebounded. Follow - up attention should be paid to changes in the Middle - East geopolitical situation, domestic two - sessions policies, and market sentiment. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended. [3] - **Precious Metals**: On Wednesday night, the precious metals market declined overall. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 1151.48 yuan/gram, a 0.37% decline; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 21997 yuan/kilogram, a 2.8% decline. Affected by the strengthening of the US dollar and market expectations of rising interest rates, the price of gold oscillated downward. Spot gold fell continuously during the day and reached an intraday low of 5149.01 US dollars during the US trading session, finally closing down 0.32% at 5175.91 US dollars per ounce; spot silver followed gold down, finally closing down 2.98% at 85.69 US dollars per ounce. Precious metals will oscillate in the short - term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended. [3] 3.2 Black Metals - **Steel**: On Wednesday, the domestic steel spot market declined slightly, and the futures price continued to oscillate, with low trading volume. The steel futures did not follow the decline in crude oil but showed some resilience. Ansteel and Bengang announced price policies for April, with plate prices increased by 200 yuan/ton. The actual fundamentals of steel have not improved significantly, and steel and billet inventories remain at high levels. Although the apparent consumption of the five major steel products rebounded last week, the inventory has exceeded the 2025 high. In terms of supply, the output of the five major steel products increased slightly, and the hot metal output decreased significantly, mainly due to temporary production restrictions during the two - sessions. Future supply will remain at a high level. Recently, cost and macro - logic dominate the steel market, and an interval oscillation approach is recommended. [4][5] - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore rebounded slightly. Iron ore prices did not follow the decline in crude oil prices. Last week, the average daily hot metal output of blast furnaces decreased by 56,000 tons month - on - month, mainly due to production restrictions in the north during the two - sessions. Given that steel mills still have certain profits and strong production enthusiasm, future demand depends on the resumption of production process. In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 4.429 million tons month - on - month this week, and the short - term supply of iron ore is still in the off - season. An interval oscillation approach is recommended for iron ore. [5] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat, and the futures prices continued a slight rebound. The spot price of manganese ore remained stable. The semi - carbonate in Tianjin Port was quoted at 40 yuan/ton - degree and above, the South African high - iron index was quoted at 33 - 35 yuan/ton - degree, Gabon was quoted at 45 yuan/ton - degree, South32 Australian lump was quoted at 44 yuan/ton - degree, and cml Australian lump was quoted at 45 - 46 yuan/ton - degree. In terms of supply, the capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises in the country was 35.7%, an increase of 0.08% from last week; the daily output was 27,980 tons/day, a decrease of 225 tons. Currently, the start - up situation in the north is relatively stable, and factories are gradually hedging, with a good profit margin. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is 5550 - 5700 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron is 6100 yuan/ton. Downstream steel mills have started to implement procurement tender plans after the Spring Festival, and the resumption of the trader market is also progressing steadily. On March 5, a steel mill in Jiangsu tendered for silicon iron at 5930 yuan/ton, with a quantity of 1000 tons, delivered to the factory with acceptance. Other steel mills are waiting for HBIS's tender. An interval oscillation approach is recommended for the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese, and attention should be paid to the risk of a sharp fall after a rise. [6] 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: On Wednesday, domestic and foreign inventories continued to accumulate. The LME copper inventory reached 312,000 tons, and the visible inventory of the three major exchanges exceeded 1.2 million tons, hitting a record high. Recently, LME copper and Shanghai copper have oscillated at high levels without a clear direction, and the future trend is uncertain. Technically, the current situation is similar to the months - long oscillation of gold last year. Fundamentally, although it is weak, it is not the main factor of concern for funds, and the macro - situation is the main influencing factor. Future attention should be paid to changes in the US interest - rate cut expectations. Fundamentally, due to the high price of sulfuric acid and the relatively high prices of gold and silver, the overall income of smelters is still guaranteed, so the refined copper output is at the highest level in the same period in history, with a year - on - year increase close to double - digits. The refined copper output in March is expected to reach 1.2 million tons, a record high. [7] - **Aluminum**: Currently, the news is fluctuating, and the market is volatile. Technically, the form has not deteriorated. With the short - term continuation of the Middle - East situation, the aluminum price will still be supported. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the support at 24,500 yuan. For the medium - term trend, it is relatively cautious, mainly due to the restart of European aluminum smelters and the high domestic aluminum output. [7] - **Zinc**: In 2026, the supply of zinc concentrate will be further released, with an expected increase of about 300,000 - 400,000 tons. The domestic smelting capacity is still expanding, and the by - product income makes up for the losses, so the domestic smelting output remains at a relatively high level. Overseas smelters reduced production in 2025 but will resume production in 2026, with output increasing. The demand side is not optimistic. Real estate, infrastructure, transportation, and emerging fields such as photovoltaics are difficult to significantly boost the demand for zinc, and it may even decline. The domestic zinc ingot inventory has increased seasonally and is currently at a high level; the LME zinc inventory remains at around 100,000 tons, and the overall inventory pressure is not large but has increased significantly compared with the previous period. [8] - **Lead**: In the short - to - medium term, the lead output is at a high level. The demand side is affected by the over - consumption of the trade - in policy, and the peak season has passed, gradually entering the off - season. Since 2026, the social inventory of primary lead has continued to increase, with the fastest inventory accumulation rate in recent years. The inventory reached 73,700 tons, decreased briefly, and then increased again. In terms of absolute inventory level, it still exceeds the same period in 2023, 2024, and 2025. Since 2025, the LME lead inventory has remained at a high level. [8][9] - **Nickel**: The intensification of the Middle - East conflict has tightened the sulfur supply, and the cost side supports the price of MHP. Indonesia's RKAB quota in 2026 has dropped significantly to 260 million wet tons, and there is still room for improvement in the future, but the increase is expected to be limited, and a year - on - year decline compared with 2025 is basically a foregone conclusion. Since the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources allows mining enterprises to use one - quarter of the "old quota" in the first quarter, mining enterprises will maintain normal production in the first quarter without a supply gap. The nickel price has strong support at the bottom, but the upward momentum and space are restricted by its own poor fundamentals. As of March 9, the LME nickel inventory reached 287,418 tons, much higher than the same period in recent years. Since September 2025, the inventory has accumulated rapidly, when it was only 210,000 tons. The domestic inventory is similar. Since September 2025, especially since late September, the inventory accumulation has accelerated, reaching the highest level in recent years. [9] - **Tin**: On Wednesday, the LME inventory increased by 590 tons to 8605 tons, the highest level in two years. On the supply side, the smelting start - up rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased seasonally, with an increase of 6.61% to 57.99%. With the progress of the pumping process in the tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, full resumption of production will be achieved, and the tin ore output and exports to China will further increase. On the demand side, the industry is highly differentiated. The production and demand of integrated circuits are still growing rapidly, but the traditional consumer electronics industry is in the off - season. China's photovoltaic installation scale in 2026 will decline compared with 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles have slowed down significantly, and the household appliance production plan in March has continued the decline in February, confirming the over - consumption effect of the previous trade - in policy. As the price has dropped significantly, market transactions have improved, and downstream enterprises have made concentrated purchases at low prices. The social inventory of tin ingots has decreased by 206 tons to 13,250 tons. In summary, the actual fundamentals have not changed much, and the price decline is due to the ebb of sentiment. In the future, it will still be a game between long - term narratives and weak real - world fundamentals, and the price will continue to be weak in the short - term. [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Wednesday, the main contract of lithium carbonate 2605 fell 5.14%, with the latest settlement price of 159,840 yuan/ton. The weighted contract reduced its position by 3290 lots, and the total position was 625,900 lots. SMM quoted the battery - grade lithium carbonate at 159,000 yuan/ton (a 500 - yuan increase month - on - month), and the basis between futures and spot was - 980 yuan/ton. For lithium ore, the latest CIF price of Australian spodumene was 2240 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month). The production profit of purchasing lithium mica was 21 yuan/ton, and the production profit of purchasing spodumene was - 855 yuan/ton. The social inventory of lithium carbonate is continuously decreasing, and the strong reality persists. It is expected that lithium carbonate will oscillate at a high level. Do not chase the rise, and patiently wait for opportunities to enter long positions after the price drops. [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main contract of industrial silicon 2605 rose 0.17%, with the latest settlement price of 8610 yuan/ton. The weighted contract's position was 355,000 lots, an increase of 10,946 lots. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 was 9200 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the futures price was at a discount of 580 yuan/ton. In a situation of weak supply and demand, over - capacity, and high - level inventory accumulation, industrial silicon is priced close to the cost. The cost side is driven by coking coal. Attention should be paid to the cost support at the bottom, and interval operations are recommended. [12] - **Polysilicon**: On Wednesday, the main contract of polysilicon 2605 fell 0.47%, with the latest settlement price of 42,735 yuan/ton. The weighted contract's position was 55,000 lots, a reduction of 399 lots. The latest N - type re -投料 price from Steel Union was 49,500 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), the N - type silicon wafer price was 1.05 yuan/piece (unchanged month - on - month), the single - crystal Topcon battery piece (M10) price was 0.415 yuan/watt (unchanged month - on - month), and the Topcon component (distributed): 210mm price was 0.77 yuan/watt (unchanged month - on - month). The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 10,690 lots (an increase of 120 lots month - on - month). The polysilicon inventory continues to accumulate at a high level, the number of warehouse receipts is increasing rapidly, and the downstream silicon wafer price is dropping rapidly. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly, and short - position holders should be cautious. [13][14] 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market has generally declined, and the basis of the port methanol market has remained stable. In mid - March, it was 2640 yuan/ton, with a basis of 05 + 40 yuan/ton; in late March, it was 2640 - 2700 yuan/ton, with a basis of around 05 + 35/+50; in late April, it was 2670 yuan/ton, with a basis of around 05 + 50. The conflict between the US and Iran has eased temporarily, oil prices have fallen, and energy and chemical products have collectively risen and then fallen. The methanol futures price has declined, and the basis is relatively stable, indicating that the spot side still has some support. In the short - term, it is expected to decline, but due to the intertwined long and short factors such as the non - substantial cease - fire of the US - Iran conflict and the non - restart of Iranian methanol plants, the actual progress needs to be monitored. [15] - **PP**: The spot price has been range - bound, strengthening by about 100 - 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The mainstream price of East China drawn wire is 8100 - 8400 yuan/ton. Crude oil has fallen sharply, the geopolitical premium has been reversed, and polypropylene has risen and then fallen. The development of the geopolitical conflict is still uncertain, and short - term volatility has increased. Attention should be paid to geopolitical dynamics. [15] - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price has been adjusted, and the LLDPE transaction price is 7750 - 8500 yuan/ton. The price of North China LL has increased by 50 - 200 yuan/ton, the price of East China has increased by 50 - 250 yuan/ton, and the price of South China has decreased by 100 - 500 yuan/ton. The crude oil price has risen and then fallen, the cost of polyethylene has loosened, and the price has fallen significantly under the influence of market sentiment. The short - term volatility is severe. Temporarily observe and wait for the end of the price decline, and pay attention to the progress of the US - Iran conflict. [16] - **Urea**: The domestic urea market has been generally stable. The supply pressure has continued to increase, and the daily output of urea has remained at a high level of over 220,000 tons. The expectation of resuming production and

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The steel price maintained a volatile trend today, rising in the morning and falling in the afternoon. The overall spot trading volume of steel was average, with most purchases at low futures and spot prices. This week, the output of the five major steel products increased slightly, with rebar production continuing to increase and hot-rolled coil production decreasing. Steel mills are still in the mode of shutdown and maintenance, and it is expected that the molten iron output will continue to decline this week. Recently, downstream demand has seasonally rebounded, and the demand performance is acceptable, but the inventory is still accumulating rapidly. Among them, the inventory of rebar is accumulating at a faster rate, while the hot-rolled coil has started to destock this week. Recently, the capital availability of downstream construction sites across the country has improved, but the resumption of work and capital situation are still weaker than in previous years. Recently, the export orders have been performing well, which has improved the supply and demand of hot-rolled coils, but the overall inventory level is still high, and there is pressure on supply and demand. However, recently, the geopolitical friction overseas has increased, and the energy prices and shipping freight rates have continued to rise. If the friction intensifies in the future, it may drive up the raw material costs of steel. After the market closed, there was news that the sales of Newman powder were blocked, which may affect the subsequent iron ore supply. Therefore, the steel price will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term. In the future, attention still needs to be paid to the molten iron production situation, downstream demand performance, and overseas geopolitical frictions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Rebar Futures**: The prices of RB05, RB10, and RB01 increased by 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, and 4 yuan/ton respectively compared to yesterday. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as RB01 - RB05 decreased by 1 yuan/ton, and RB10 - RB01 increased by 1 yuan/ton. The disk profits of 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 12 yuan/ton, 12 yuan/ton, and 15 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Rebar Spot**: The prices of rebar in various regions increased by 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the cheapest delivery product for 05, 10, and 01 contracts is 70 yuan/ton, 41 yuan/ton, and 16 yuan/ton respectively. The regional price differences remained mostly unchanged, and the spot profits in different regions also changed to varying degrees, such as the adjusted rolling profit increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the East China rebar profit increased by 5 yuan/ton [2]. - **Hot-rolled Coil Futures**: The prices of HC05, HC10, and HC01 increased by 6 yuan/ton, 6 yuan/ton, and 7 yuan/ton respectively compared to yesterday. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as HC01 - HC05 increased by 1 yuan/ton, and HC10 - HC01 decreased by 1 yuan/ton. The disk profits of 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 11 yuan/ton, 11 yuan/ton, and 12 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Hot-rolled Coil Spot**: The prices of hot-rolled coils in various regions increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The basis of the cheapest delivery product for 05, 10, and 01 contracts is -15 yuan/ton, -24 yuan/ton, and -39 yuan/ton respectively. The regional price differences remained mostly unchanged, and the spot profits in different regions also changed to varying degrees, such as the Tianjin hot-rolled coil profit increased by 19 yuan/ton, and the East China hot-rolled coil profit increased by 5 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Market Judgement - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3190 yuan (+10), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3140 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil is 3250 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil is 3170 yuan (-) [5]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Follow the overseas sentiment and maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [7]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high prices, and continue to hold the short position of the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [7]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Important Information** - As of March 11 (the 23rd day of the first lunar month), the resumption rate of 10,692 construction sites across the country is 42.5%, a month-on-month increase of 19 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.2 percentage points in the lunar calendar; the labor attendance rate is 43.9%, a month-on-month increase of 14.2 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.8 percentage points in the lunar calendar; the capital availability rate is 42.8%, a month-on-month increase of 7.4 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 percentage points in the lunar calendar [9]. - On March 12, Minister of Justice He Rong stated at the third "Ministers' Passage" of the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress that this year's government legislation work will focus on several aspects, one of which is to optimize the business environment, formulate regulations for the construction of a unified national market, and address issues such as local protection, improper access conditions, and "involutionary" competition [10]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the base price of rebar and hot-rolled coil contracts in different periods, the price difference between contracts, the disk profit, the cash profit, and other data trends over the years [15][17][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts increase energy valuation, and the expectation of stable growth provides support for domestic demand. Steel mills are expected to resume production during the peak season, leading to strong cost support and firm prices in the sector. However, there are still inventory contradictions in steel products, and the peak - season expectations are cautious. High inventory pressure in iron ore is difficult to relieve, Mongolian coal imports are high, the supply - demand surplus in glass and soda ash remains unchanged, and the fundamentals of alloys provide limited support. Thus, the upward potential of the futures prices is restricted [1] - In the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the peak - season expectations are cautious. The upward driving force from the real - world situation is limited. Uncertainties such as domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the futures prices may fluctuate sharply. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and the fulfillment of peak - season demand [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: The supply - side shipping has recovered but there are still expectations of disruptions. The high inventory pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term. With the Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, there are still macro uncertainties. Recently, commodities have shown strength. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be greater, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [1][8] - Scrap steel: The supply - demand pattern of the short - term scrap steel market, which was previously weak in both supply and demand, has marginally improved. The demand recovery rhythm is slightly faster than the supply, and the fundamentals provide some support for the price. Driven by the rise in finished - product prices, it is expected to follow the upward trend in the short term [9] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: In the short term, there are disturbances in hot metal production, but there is still long - term rigid demand support for coke. The possibility of multiple consecutive rounds of price cuts after the first round of spot price cuts is small. The futures prices are expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. If the geopolitical conflict persists, it may follow the energy prices and show strength; if the conflict eases, it is expected to maintain an oscillating operation [2][10] - Coking coal: The resumption of coal mine production is still restricted, but there is still real - world fundamental pressure on coking coal due to high Mongolian coal imports. The spot prices are expected to oscillate. The current futures prices are greatly affected by domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts. If the conflict persists, it may follow the crude oil prices and show strength; if the conflict eases, it is expected to maintain an oscillating operation [2][12] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand of the manganese silicon market is loose, the upstream inventory is high, and there are obstacles in cost transmission. There is obvious selling - hedging pressure above the futures prices. Attention should be paid to the risk of price correction when the futures prices rise above the cost line [2][15] - Ferrosilicon: Currently, there is not much supply - demand contradiction in ferrosilicon, but the continuous repair of profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, making the supply - demand relationship gradually turn loose. The current futures valuation is higher than the comprehensive cost of ferrosilicon, and attention should be paid to the risk of high - level price correction [2][17] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventories of middle - and downstream enterprises are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If the production and sales cannot improve continuously, the high inventory will always suppress the price [2][13] - Soda ash: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [2][15] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis - Steel: There is still cost support, and the futures prices have risen slightly. After the festival, downstream demand has gradually started, and price rebounds have stimulated the entry of futures - spot traders and rigid - demand replenishment. However, the overall supply level is low, demand is at a low level, and inventories are accumulating. The upward potential of prices is limited, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand [7] - Iron ore: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the futures prices oscillate. Overseas mine shipping has decreased, arrivals have increased, demand has declined in the short term but is expected to recover seasonally later. The inventory has increased slightly, and the futures prices oscillate. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamentals will face greater pressure [7][8] - Scrap steel: The supply - demand has marginally improved, and the spot prices have risen slightly. Supply recovery is slow, demand has recovered faster, and inventories have decreased. It is expected to follow the upward trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the finished - product price rebound and the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [9] - Coke: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the futures prices follow the oscillation. After the first round of price cuts, supply has decreased slightly, demand has rigid support, and inventories have accumulated at a slower pace. The futures prices follow the cost - side coking coal [10] - Coking coal: There is still a geopolitical premium, and the futures prices follow the oscillation. Supply has basically recovered, imports are high, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is general. The spot prices are expected to oscillate, and the futures prices are affected by macro and geopolitical factors [12] - Glass: The improvement in sentiment has driven the production and sales of spot products, and the upstream expects to reduce inventories. Supply may decline in the long term, demand has not fully recovered, and middle - stream inventories are large, suppressing the futures valuation. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [13] - Soda ash: Driven by the increase in energy costs, the price center has rebounded. Supply is stable at a high level, demand is stable, and the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [13][15] - Manganese silicon: The cost remains high, and the futures prices oscillate strongly. The cost has support, supply is relatively loose, demand recovery is slow, and there is selling - hedging pressure above the futures prices. Attention should be paid to the risk of price correction [15] - Ferrosilicon: The futures valuation is high, and attention should be paid to the risk of price correction. The cost has support, demand recovery is slow, supply is expected to increase, and the current futures valuation is higher than the cost. Attention should be paid to the risk of high - level price correction [17] 3.6 Index Information - On March 11, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures was 2565.65, a decrease of 0.28%; the commodity 20 index was 2921.03, a decrease of 0.32%; the industrial products index was 2484.54, a decrease of 1.01% [102] - The steel industry chain index on March 11, 2026, had a daily increase of 0.06%, a 5 - day increase of 1.85%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.24%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.55% [104]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall decline on March 12, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4129.1 points, down 0.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 14374.87 points, down 0.63%, the ChiNext Index at 3317.52 points, down 0.96%, the Sci-Tech Innovation Index down 1.01%, and the North Star 50 Index down 1.12% [1]. Capital Flow - The main capital outflow from the A-share market reached 51.176 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 15.036 billion yuan at the opening and 1.85 billion yuan at the close [2]. - Over the past five trading days, the main capital flow in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has shown significant outflows, with March 12 recording a net outflow of 51.176 billion yuan [3]. Sector Performance - The CSI 300 index saw a net outflow of 11.619 billion yuan, while the ChiNext experienced a net outflow of 19.792 billion yuan, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board had a net outflow of 0.418 billion yuan [4]. - Among the major sectors, the coal industry led with a net inflow of 3.985 billion yuan, while the banking sector followed with 3.831 billion yuan [6]. Institutional Activity - The top five sectors with net inflows included coal, banking, public utilities, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, while the sectors with the largest outflows were electronics, machinery equipment, electric power equipment, defense, and communications [7]. - Institutional investors showed interest in several stocks, with notable net purchases in Yuyin Co. and others, while stocks like Dongli New Science and Technology faced net selling [9]. Stock Recommendations - Recent institutional focus includes stocks like Jiuli Special Materials with a target price of 42.85 yuan, representing a potential upside of 29.89% from the latest closing price of 32.99 yuan [11].

Investment Highlights - In February 2026, the equity market experienced fluctuations with mixed performance across indices, while the bond market saw increased volatility. Most major indices recorded gains except for the ChiNext and STAR 50 indices, which declined. The steel, building materials, and machinery sectors led the gains with increases of 9.52%, 7.72%, and 7.56% respectively, while media, non-bank financials, and consumer services sectors faced deeper declines of -4.22%, -3.48%, and -3.37% respectively [1][6][8] Equity Market Review - The A-share market is expected to maintain a wide fluctuation pattern in March 2026, supported by increased liquidity and policy expectations from the National People's Congress. Key focus areas include price increases driven by geopolitical tensions, sectors benefiting from AI technology maturity, and policy implementation post-NPC [2][12][15] Bond Market Review - The bond market in February saw decreased trading activity due to the Spring Festival, but strong liquidity support from the central bank helped maintain stability. The 10-year government bond yield briefly fell below 1.80%. Major bond fund indices showed positive performance, with the long-term pure bond fund index rising by 0.17%, and the convertible bond fund index increasing by 1.17% [8][20] Fund Performance Overview - The active equity fund indices showed a slight increase in February, with the active stock fund index rising by 1.20%. The market's risk appetite improved post-Spring Festival, leading to a recovery in equity performance, particularly in resource-related sectors [7][17] Thematic Fund Performance - The military industry theme fund ranked first in performance due to geopolitical tensions and the commercial aerospace sector's growth. Environmental theme funds also performed well, while the AI application sector faced a downturn due to concerns over profitability and regulatory scrutiny [9][11] Fund Index Construction - The active equity fund selection index aims to balance value, growth, and balanced styles, focusing on performance competitiveness and stability. The short-term bond fund index is designed to provide stable returns with low risk, while the medium to long-term bond fund index focuses on balancing yield and risk control [16][18][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is generally strong. Last week, the futures market fluctuated upward. Due to geopolitical factors overseas, the market has strong expectations for future energy prices. Coal may be a strong substitute for crude oil, but geopolitical conflicts also have an impact on steel exports. In the short term, hot metal production decreased significantly, while the total output of five major steel products increased slightly week-on-week, and inventory accumulated. The apparent demand increased seasonally. There is a divergence between hot metal and steel mill production data, mainly due to production cuts by some long-process steel mills in the north. Rebar production increased and inventory accumulated, while hot-rolled coil production decreased and inventory accumulated. In the short term, the fundamentals of rebar are stronger than those of hot-rolled coil. The profits of long-process steel mills in the spot market have recovered, while the valley electricity profits of short-process steel mills have declined slightly. The price difference between scrap iron and steel has widened, and the profit margin of the futures market has narrowed. Raw materials are stronger than steel products. In terms of strategies, investors can consider shorting the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar when prices are high [3]. - The rebar month spread is neutral. The 5 - 10 month spread of rebar is -27 yuan/ton, which has strengthened slightly week-on-week [3]. - Steel mill profits are strong. This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises is 38.1%, which has decreased slightly week-on-week and is still significantly lower than the same period last year [3][13]. - Scrap steel is strong. According to calculations, current flat electricity production of electric arc furnaces in East China results in a loss of 142 yuan/ton, and valley electricity production results in a loss of 38 yuan/ton [3]. - The inventory of steel products is neutral. The overall inventory of five major steel products has accumulated seasonally [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of March 6, 2026, the daily average pig iron output was 227.59 tons, a significant week-on-week decline of 5.69 tons, lower than the same period last year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel enterprises was 77.71%, a significant week-on-week decline; the capacity utilization rate of 85 electric arc furnaces was 20.71%, a significant week-on-week increase [13]. - This week, the total output of five major steel products was 797.24 tons, an increase of 0.47 tons from last week. Among them, rebar production was 173.31 tons, an increase of 8.21 tons from last week; hot-rolled coil production was 301.11 tons, a significant week-on-week decline of 8.5 tons. The production of cold-rolled and medium-thick plates was significantly higher than the historical average [20]. - In terms of demand, the total consumption of five major steel products this week was 691.35 tons, a seasonal increase week-on-week. Rebar consumption was 98.23 tons, a slight week-on-week increase; hot-rolled coil consumption was 281.6 tons, a slight week-on-week decline [41]. - After the Spring Festival, spot trading volume has increased seasonally, but overall it is lower than the same period last year. Attention should be paid to the subsequent recovery [60]. - This week, the billet inventory of 55 billet-rolling mills was 59.7 tons, a significant week-on-week increase, approaching the same period last year. The mainstream warehouse billet inventory was 247.57 tons, a significant week-on-week increase, reaching a record high [76]. 3.2 Valuation - Rebar warehouse receipts increased slightly but are still significantly lower than the same period last year. Hot-rolled coil warehouse receipts increased significantly week-on-week, reaching a high level for the same period in history [109]. 3.3 Balance Sheet - The report provides a monthly balance sheet for crude steel from July 2025 to July 2026, including data such as initial steel mill and social inventory, pig iron and crude steel production, imports and exports, total consumption, production-demand balance, ending steel mill and social inventory, surplus, year-on-year production and consumption growth, and cumulative year-on-year production and consumption growth [110].