Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - SAIC is set to launch a solid-state battery vehicle priced at 100,000 RMB, while QS has announced a partnership with Volkswagen to advance solid-state battery technology [1] - The Optimus robot from Tesla aims for an annual production of 1 million units within five years, indicating a strong growth trajectory in the robotics sector [2] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project has commenced with a total investment of 1.2 trillion RMB, marking a significant development in the hydropower industry [2][62] - The new energy installed capacity in China saw a year-on-year increase of 18.7% in the first half of 2025, with wind and solar power growing by 22.7% and 54.2% respectively [63][64] Summary by Sections Electric Vehicle Sector - SAIC's MG brand will introduce a new electric vehicle model, MG4, featuring a semi-solid-state battery [1] - QS and Volkswagen are expanding their strategic cooperation on solid-state batteries, with a focus on the QSE-5 battery [1][52] Robotics Sector - Tesla's Optimus robot is currently in version 2.5, with plans for mass production of 1 million units in five years [2][58] - The WAIC conference showcased a surge in participation from robotics companies, indicating a vibrant market [2][59] Renewable Energy Sector - The Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower project, with an investment of 1.2 trillion RMB, is expected to significantly enhance clean energy output [62] - In the first half of 2025, China's total installed power generation capacity reached 364.807 million kW, reflecting an 18.7% year-on-year growth [63] - Wind and solar power installations are driving the growth, with wind power capacity reaching 57.26 million kW and solar power at 110.003 million kW [63][64] Solar Industry - New energy installed capacity in China increased by 18.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with solar energy seeing a 54.2% growth [63][64] - The report highlights the rising prices of polysilicon and silicon wafers, indicating a tightening supply chain in the solar industry [21][27] Wind Energy Sector - Three offshore wind power projects in Jiangsu have begun the bidding process, signaling accelerated development in the wind energy sector [4][53]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the photovoltaic and wind energy sectors, indicating potential for recovery and growth in demand and pricing [1][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments in the "Price Law" to combat "involution" in the industry, which is expected to stabilize pricing and improve market conditions [7][8]. - There is a notable increase in demand for wind turbines, with significant orders and tenders indicating a robust market outlook for the second half of the year [8][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the supply chain dynamics and pricing trends across various segments, particularly in photovoltaic materials and components [7][23]. Summary by Relevant Sections Photovoltaic & Energy Storage - The report discusses the recent legislative changes aimed at improving product quality monitoring and energy consumption standards in the photovoltaic sector, which are expected to positively impact market dynamics [1][7]. - Despite concerns over potential negative feedback on terminal demand due to price increases, the report anticipates a recovery in demand as the market enters the traditional stocking season in Q3 [1][7]. Wind Energy - The signing of a €4.3 billion order by a major company for offshore wind turbine foundations is highlighted, along with an upward revision of expected shipments and performance for 2026 [8][10]. - The report notes a significant increase in tender sizes for wind turbines, reinforcing optimistic demand expectations for 2026 [8][10]. Power Grid - The commencement of a major hydropower project with an investment of approximately ¥1.2 trillion is expected to drive significant demand for ultra-high voltage (UHV) and gas-insulated line (GIL) equipment [2][11]. - The report indicates a strong growth trend in the export of major electrical equipment, with a notable increase in transformer and high-voltage switch exports [2][12]. Lithium Battery - The report identifies advancements in semi-solid and solid-state battery technologies as key areas for commercialization, with companies making progress in overcoming existing technical challenges [13][16]. - The application of lithium metal anodes is highlighted as a significant development that could enhance energy density in solid-state batteries [16][17]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The report notes a recovery in fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) registrations and a significant increase in the bidding for electrolyzers, indicating a growing market for hydrogen technologies [3][20]. - The report emphasizes the potential for green hydrogen projects, particularly in maritime applications, to drive demand for hydrogen production equipment [20][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong valuation margins and those positioned to benefit from technological advancements and market recovery in the photovoltaic sector [8][10]. - In the wind energy sector, the report recommends companies that are expected to benefit from increased orders and favorable pricing dynamics [10][11]. - For the hydrogen sector, the report highlights companies involved in fuel cell systems and hydrogen storage as key investment opportunities [20][21].

基本内容 沿着阻力最小的方向，既符合物理规律，也符合人性，但阻力最小的方向不一定通往最优的结果。要实现最优结果， 就要突破很多阻力，这是改革的应有之义。以改革的方式综合整治内卷，需要标本兼治，这个过程涉及中央部委、地 方政府和司法体系的协同配合，针对的是出现了无序价格战和不正当竞争，威胁到行业高质量发展，且与地方政府行 为密切相关的行业，简单说，就是"新三样"和电商平台。"反内卷"并不简单等同于"涨价去产能"，明确改革起步 的重点方向后，就是要高度重视改革的潜在效果。第一，反内卷改革将成为相关行业提升产品质量、优秀企业提升利 润率和投资回报的重要催化剂。第二，反内卷改革不会是"一阵风"，而是有望写入即将出炉的"十五五"规划，这 也意味着后续大概率还会有更多政策落地。第三，如果到明后年，国内需求侧如房地产业进入新的长期稳态，改革对 相关行业和宏观经济会起到更明显的效果。 风险提示 1）对政策精神的学习和贯彻落实不到位，导致出现运动式去产能；2）外部风险可能有所波动，影响国内政策重心 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 宏观经济报告 一、阻力最小的方向 物理学里有一个"最小阻力定律"，指材料在塑性形变 ...

Core Viewpoint - The root cause of "involution" competition lies not in industries or enterprises, but in the improper intervention of local governments in micro-level affairs [2][3]. Group 1: Government Intervention and Involution - The "anti-involution" policy will become a mainline policy in supply-side reforms starting from mid-2024, focusing on regulating local government and enterprise behavior [2]. - Local governments' selective industrial policies and various subsidies are significant drivers of market supply-demand imbalance, which is the essence of "involution" [3][16]. - The need for local governments to abandon selective industrial policies and restrict their micro-level interventions is emphasized as crucial for addressing "involution" [3][16]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Demand Management - China's GDP growth in the first half of the year showed resilience, but nominal GDP growth has slowed, with the second quarter's nominal GDP growth dropping to 3.9% [4]. - The nominal GDP growth is critical for enterprises, local governments, and households, as it directly impacts cash flow and financial health [4]. - Consumption should be the focal point for stimulating total demand, as insufficient consumption can hinder economic growth [5]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations for Consumption - Expanding the scope of consumption subsidies, such as including service consumption, is suggested to further stimulate demand [6]. - Issuing quasi-cash vouchers to residents is proposed as a viable option to enhance purchasing power and alleviate financial pressure on enterprises [6]. - Increasing the issuance of special government bonds to support financial institutions and improve liquidity for enterprises is recommended [6]. Group 4: Supply-Side Reforms and Long-Term Strategy - Supply-side reforms must continue alongside demand management to ensure sustainable economic growth [7]. - The experience of Japan in the 1980s highlights the importance of improving supply-side efficiency to complement demand-side stimulus [7]. - A shift in economic growth model towards innovation and technological advancement is necessary to address the root causes of demand insufficiency [8]. Group 5: Innovation and Market Dynamics - The distinction between Schumpeterian entrepreneurs, who drive original innovation, and Kirznerian entrepreneurs, who capitalize on market opportunities, is crucial for understanding market dynamics [9][10]. - The rapid entry of Kirznerian entrepreneurs, spurred by government subsidies, can lead to market saturation and reduced profitability for original innovators [11][12]. - The role of local governments in fostering competition can inadvertently stifle original innovation, as seen in various industries like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [11][14]. Group 6: Regulatory Framework and Market Competition - The need for a legal framework to constrain local government interventions is emphasized, as many interventions are self-assigned rather than mandated by central government [17]. - Market competition should be the primary mechanism for clearing inefficient capacities, rather than relying on administrative measures [18]. - The emergence of "trusts" or monopolistic behaviors in the market, as seen in historical contexts, necessitates stringent regulatory oversight to prevent anti-competitive practices [20].

（二）券商最新研判 （一）重磅消息 据新华社报道，国务院总理7月26日在上海出席2025世界人工智能大会暨人工智能全球治理高级别会议 开幕式并致辞。围绕如何把握人工智能公共产品属性、推进人工智能发展和治理，提出三点建议。一是 更加注重普及普惠，充分用好人工智能发展的已有成果。二是更加注重创新合作，力求更多突破性的人 工智能科技硕果。三是更加注重共同治理，确保人工智能在造福人类上最终修成正果。 信达证券：当下市场具备政策和流动性驱动牛市的条件 牛市重要的驱动力量之一是股市政策驱动股权融资减少。2023年下半年以来，随着股权融资规模的下 降，股市的供需结构也在扭转。当下市场也具备政策和流动性驱动牛市的条件。 战略上，2025年下半年可能会出现类似2014年下半年的突破，战术上要等待经济或政策的催化。估值位 置偏低、上市公司盈利偏弱、政策基调积极、各类主题机会活跃，这些很像2013年~2014年年中和2019 年的震荡市，最终的结局大概率是更全面的牛市。战术层面，之前突破的临界点均有政策和经济高频数 据催化，目前需要等待观察1~2个月。 行业配置方面，稳健策略包括非银、银行，指数权重大且机构低配。需要轮动的策略上， ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is currently experiencing significant losses despite a crowded conference scene, indicating a complex environment of both challenges and efforts for survival [1][4]. Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry is in a deep adjustment period with severe losses reported by many companies, yet there is a sense of optimism for long-term development among industry professionals [3][4]. - The term "anti-involution" has emerged as a key theme, with some companies like Longi and Aiko showing signs of recovery, but many still face substantial pressure [3][5]. Financial Performance - As of July 24, 2025, 72.73% of the 68 A-share listed companies in the photovoltaic equipment sector reported expected losses for the first half of the year [10]. - Longi Green Energy is projected to report a net loss of approximately 2.4 to 2.8 billion yuan, a significant reduction in losses compared to the previous year [11]. - Aiko is the first major company in the supply chain to report a quarterly profit, with an expected net loss of 170 to 280 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [10]. Challenges and Concerns - Overcapacity and supply-demand imbalance remain the most critical issues facing the photovoltaic industry [4][10]. - Many companies in the supply chain express reluctance to claim profitability due to the prevailing negative sentiment in the industry [7][8]. Future Directions - Industry leaders emphasize the need for capacity clearance and self-discipline to avoid low-price competition, which is detrimental to the industry [13][14]. - There is a consensus on the importance of expanding application markets and enhancing product quality to foster a healthier industry environment [14][15]. - The introduction of a new evaluation mechanism by industry associations or government bodies is suggested to maintain order and promote sustainable growth [14].

一群工程师正在修改图纸文件。他们撰写了一份厚厚的30页说明书，详细解释了技术上的各种不同之处。光是快递这份文件的费用就高达两万多块。 当场听到这番言论的人们都不知该如何回应。印度尼西亚刚刚同意不设关税，而美国却仍坚持对他们征收高达19%的关税。这两种标准的冲突直接摆在了全 世界的面前。 尤其让人感到不安的是，那些多年前就在印度尼西亚建厂的中国光伏企业老板们。他们最初的计划是通过印度尼西亚将产品销往美国，从而避开美国的301 关税。然而，现在他们面临的问题是：\"生产线上的产品必须标明非中国技术来源。\" 这一技术要求看似简单，实则极具挑战性。这意味着，即使产品中只有一个小小的螺丝是从中国运过来的，这整批货物都有可能被美国海关扣留检查。 隆基和天合光能等公司的仓库已经堆满了太阳能板的组件。而在码头上，出产的镍矿石必须优先给美国船只装载。因此，光伏组件若要装船出口，只能排队 等候。 面对这一局面，老板们别无选择，只能临时改变航运路线，先将组件运往新加坡，重新包装后再运往美国。这样一来，每个集装箱的运输成本就增加了8美 元。 这一切背后的情况是什么呢？就在印度尼西亚与美国之间签署了一项协议，而这个协议并未涉及关税问 ...

Group 1 - The core policy direction from mid-2024, especially into 2025, is the comprehensive rectification of "involutionary" competition, which has gained significant market attention across various industries such as photovoltaics, automotive, and e-commerce [2] - The essence of "involution" is identified as a market supply-demand imbalance, primarily driven by local government interventions through subsidies and industrial funds [2][18] - The need for local governments to abandon selective industrial policies and restrict their micro-intervention capabilities in industries and enterprises is emphasized as a key aspect of the "anti-involution" initiative [18] Group 2 - In the first half of 2023, China's GDP growth showed resilience, but nominal GDP growth slowed marginally, with a second-quarter nominal GDP growth rate of 3.9% and a real GDP growth rate of 5.2% [3] - The nominal GDP growth is crucial for businesses, local governments, and households, as it directly impacts cash flow and tax revenues, highlighting the importance of managing total demand effectively [3] - Consumer spending is identified as the primary focus for stimulating demand, as insufficient consumption can hinder economic growth and lead to ineffective investments [4] Group 3 - Measures such as expanding the scope of subsidies to include service consumption and considering the issuance of quasi-cash vouchers are suggested to further stimulate consumer spending [5] - The issuance of special government bonds could provide liquidity to repay local government debts to enterprises, thereby improving their financial conditions [6] - Continuous supply-side reforms are necessary alongside demand management to ensure a balanced economic growth model [7][8] Group 4 - The supply-side also relies on capital accumulation, labor input, and total factor productivity improvement, with a focus on enhancing labor's contribution to GDP growth through innovation [9][10] - The current industrial upgrades in China are primarily technology improvements in engineering, with significant room for breakthroughs in original innovation [10][11] - The lack of profitability in industries like photovoltaics and new energy vehicles is attributed to excessive competition driven by local government policies that encourage rapid market entry without fostering original innovation [11][12] Group 5 - The relationship between local governments and industries has evolved since the 1980s, with local governments often supporting similar industries due to tax revenue motivations and distorted performance metrics [17] - The need for regulatory reforms to limit local government interventions and promote a market-driven economy is highlighted, as excessive government support can lead to inefficiencies and market distortions [18][20] - Establishing a legal framework to constrain local government decision-making and interventions is essential for fostering a competitive market environment [19]

多个品种夜盘跳水 周五晚夜盘交易时段，大部分工业品期货都呈现减仓快速下跌的情况。截至夜盘交易收盘，焦煤、焦炭、玻璃、纯碱这些近 期的热门品种，跌幅都超过了6%。持仓量变化方面，焦煤期货市场减仓13万手，减仓幅度达到14%。 | 序号 | 合约名称 | 最新 涨幅%↑ 持仓量 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | | T | 焦煤加权 | 1159.0 -7.69% 792070 -13万 | | 2 | 焦炭加权 | 1638.0 -7.09% 52929 -1799 | | 3 | 玻璃加权。 | 1284 -6.14% 1378330 -88640 | | 4 | 纯碱加权○ | 1376 -6.14% 1831488 50793 | | ട | 氧化铝加权○ | 3245 -5.50% 409363 4879 | | 6 | 烧碱加权 ○ | 2548 -4.43% 211697 -1882 | | 1 | 甲醇加权◎ | 2455 -2.66% 1013712 -51500 | | 8 | 20号胶加权 | 12925 -2.42% 111091 -344 | | ਰੇ | 沪银加权 。 ...

同日收到监管函 【导读】*ST沐邦因涉嫌财务数据虚假披露等违法行为被立案 中国基金报记者 若文 7月25日，*ST沐邦发布公告称，公司收到中国证监会《立案告知书》，因公司涉嫌年报等定期报告财务数据虚假披露等违法行为，中国证监会决定对公 司立案。 同日，*ST沐邦还公告称，近日收到中国证监会江西监管局下发的《行政监管措施决定书》。 | 截止日期 | | 2025-03-31 | 2024-12-31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告期 | | 一季报 | 年报 : | | 报表类型 | | 合并报表 | 合并报表 | | 筹资活动产生的现金流量： | | | | | 吸收投资收到的现金 | = | | 14.05 : | | 取得借款收到的现金 | - | 0.54 : | 4.56 : | | 收到其他与筹资活动有关的现金 | = | 3.23 : | 25.05 | 如今，巨额债务负担下的偿债能力困局正全面显露。7月22日，*ST沐邦发布公告，因子公司与杭州晟泽盈贸易有限公司之间的民间借贷纠纷，公司的部 分募集资金账户资金被司法划扣，划扣金额为9747.08万元。 经查，公司 ...