Group 1: Market Performance - The domestic futures market showed a mixed performance from January 19 to January 23, with strong performance in precious metals and energy chemicals, while the black series experienced a general pullback [2] - In the energy chemical sector, fuel oil rose by 4.01% and crude oil increased by 0.79%. In contrast, the black series saw coking coal decline by 1.07% and iron ore drop by 2.21% [2] - Precious metals saw significant gains, with Shanghai gold up by 6.10% and Shanghai silver up by 8.39% [2] Group 2: Precious Metals Insights - On January 23, international silver prices surpassed $100 per ounce, marking a historical high with an annual increase of over 44%. The rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to geopolitical factors [3] - Silver's price increase is driven by both financial and industrial demand, with ongoing supply shortages exacerbated by tightening export controls and low inventory levels [3][4] - Analysts suggest that the recent price increases in gold and silver are primarily influenced by geopolitical tensions and market liquidity expectations rather than solely by safe-haven demand [4][5] Group 3: Platinum and Palladium Market Trends - On January 23, overseas platinum futures prices exceeded $2,600 per ounce, while palladium prices approached $2,000 per ounce, with platinum futures rising by 10.39% [6] - The platinum market has faced supply shortages for three consecutive years, with a projected supply gap of 69,200 ounces by 2025, leading to low inventory levels [6] - The demand for platinum is expected to be bolstered by the accelerating hydrogen energy industry, while palladium faces long-term pressure due to its reliance on internal combustion engine vehicles [7] Group 4: Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced new guidelines for public fund performance benchmarks, effective March 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing the stability and seriousness of benchmark applications [8][9] - The guidelines emphasize the need for internal controls and management by fund managers, as well as external oversight by custodians and sales institutions [8][9] Group 5: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices rose over 3% due to escalating geopolitical tensions and increased U.S. sanctions, with Brent crude and NYMEX crude closing at $65.44 and $61.29 per barrel, respectively [11] - Analysts note that while the oil market currently faces an oversupply, geopolitical uncertainties provide a support base for prices, leading to potential short-term price spikes [11]

豆粕周报 2026 年 1 月 26 日 阿根廷产区偏干 连粕震荡收敛 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆3月合约涨11.25收于1067.5美分/蒲式 耳，涨幅1.07%；豆粕05合约涨24收于2751元/吨，跌幅 0.88%；华南豆粕现货收于3100元/吨，较上周持平；菜 粕05合约跌20收于2235元/吨，跌幅0.89%；广西菜粕现 货跌20收于2430元/吨，跌幅0.82%。 ⚫ 美豆止跌后震荡上涨，一是美国生柴政策即将发布预期 作用下，美豆油走强提振美豆；二是美豆出口销售进度 加快，对价格亦形成支撑；三是巴西 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term due to increased domestic conflicts over illegal immigration in the US [11][12]. - US stocks are expected to maintain high - level volatility during the earnings season, with increased volatility [16][17]. - Precious metals are likely to see increased short - term volatility, and investors should be aware of the risk of a pullback after a continuous sharp rise [20]. - The bond market is experiencing a short - term rebound, and it is more cost - effective to short after the upward momentum fades [21][22]. - The stock index long - position strategy should be continued [23][24]. - Coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term as supply is at a high level and downstream restocking has ended [25][26]. - Steel prices are expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to hedge inventory at high prices if there is a price rebound [31]. - Palm oil is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term, and the price of soybean oil is expected to be supported before the US biofuel policy is released [35]. - The outlook for soybean meal exports is not optimistic, and the 5 - month contract is likely to be weak if there are no major abnormalities in South American production [37][38]. - The domestic sugar market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term due to seasonal supply pressure and limited demand [42]. - Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner before the Spring Festival, with long - term bullish views unchanged [47]. - Copper prices are likely to be volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [51]. - Lead prices are expected to be in low - level volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see both unilaterally and in arbitrage [53][54]. - Zinc prices are expected to remain in high - level volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, pay attention to long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts for arbitrage, and wait and see in the domestic - foreign arbitrage [57]. - Lithium carbonate prices are likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and a bullish strategy is recommended with attention to position control and risk management [60][61]. - Tin prices are expected to be in wide - range volatility in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of supply recovery expectations and consumption recovery [65]. - Nickel prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices [66][67]. - EU carbon prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [68][69]. - Oil prices are expected to be supported by short - term geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions [71][72]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to see a mild recovery in processing fees around the Spring Festival [76]. - The container shipping index is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [78]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Europe is estimated to need $1 trillion to restructure its defense industry. The shooting of a US citizen by ICE has intensified domestic conflicts over illegal immigration, causing the dollar index to weaken. The Trump administration is expected to maintain a tough stance on illegal immigration, and market volatility will remain high. The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [9][11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the US in January was 56.4, reaching a five - month high. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in January was 51.9. The US economy shows resilience, and the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short - term. The market is worried about the Fed's independence, and US stocks are expected to maintain high - level volatility during the earnings season [13][14][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US is expected to obtain "sovereignty" over the area where the US military base on Greenland is located. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in January was 51.9. The New York Federal Reserve Bank conducted a "rate check" on the US dollar/yen exchange rate. Precious metals continued to rise strongly on Friday, reaching a new high. The market is trading on the safe - haven and de - dollarization needs caused by the tense situation between the US and Europe. The sharp rise of the yen and the fall of the dollar after the US and Japan jointly signaled to intervene in the foreign exchange market boosted the precious metals. However, the short - term market is dominated by sentiment and funds, and the risk is increasing. Precious metals are likely to see increased short - term volatility, and investors should be aware of the risk of a pullback [18][19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 125 billion yuan, with a net investment of 38.3 billion yuan. The bond market continued to strengthen, mainly due to the alleviation of previous concerns. However, there are still long - term negative factors, and it is more cost - effective to short after the upward momentum fades [21][22]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The CSRC issued a guidance on the performance comparison benchmark for public funds. Due to strong bullish expectations, funds flowed into small - cap stocks, causing market differentiation. The regulatory authorities are expected to take stricter and more precise measures to limit excessive speculation, and the market is likely to remain in high - level volatility. It is recommended to continue to hold the long - position strategy for the stock index [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Changzhi market remained stable. The supply in some areas increased slightly, while the downstream restocking ended, and the market sentiment declined. Coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [25][26]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The global crude steel output in 2025 was 1.849 billion tons. In mid - January 2026, the daily output of key steel enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. Before the Spring Festival, steel prices are expected to be volatile and may rebound slightly. It is recommended to hedge inventory at high prices if there is a price rebound [27][29][31]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The EU plans to gradually phase out soybean biofuels. The establishment of the Southeast Asian Sustainable Aviation Fuel Council. The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills increased, and the estimated volume for the next week is higher. The palm oil market is supported by inventory reduction and Ramadan expectations, and the price of soybean oil is expected to be supported before the US biofuel policy is released [32][34][35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The US weekly soybean export sales reached the highest level of the year. The domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume increased, and it is expected to remain high. The outlook for soybean meal exports is not optimistic, and the 5 - month contract is likely to be weak if there are no major abnormalities in South American production [36][37][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The amount of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports increased. The sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil decreased in the second half of December. The domestic sugar market is under seasonal supply pressure, and the demand is limited. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [39][41][42]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The import of Indian cotton yarn decreased, while the import of polyester - cotton blended yarn increased. The EU's clothing import rebounded in November 2025, and the import from China increased. The US cotton export signing reached a new high, but the export progress is still behind. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner before the Spring Festival, with long - term bullish views unchanged [43][44][47]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Chilean contractor protests blocked access to mines. Tibet Julong Copper's second - phase project was put into operation. The Chilean Mining Association warned that it will take several years for copper supply to increase. The short - term macro factors support copper prices, but the fundamental factors may suppress price increases. Copper prices are likely to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [48][50][51]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount. The production of primary lead was stable, the profit of secondary lead refineries narrowed, and the consumption of lead batteries was weak. The social inventory increased, and lead prices are expected to be in low - level volatility. It is recommended to wait and see both unilaterally and in arbitrage [52][53][54]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A gold mine in Mexico was temporarily shut down. The LME zinc spread was at a discount, and MMG's zinc ore output in the fourth quarter of 2025 increased. The zinc concentrate port inventory increased, the smelting profit improved slightly, and the demand was affected by multiple factors. Zinc prices are expected to remain in high - level volatility. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, pay attention to long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts for arbitrage, and wait and see in the domestic - foreign arbitrage [55][56][57]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The retail and wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in the first 18 days of January 2026 decreased year - on - year. Lithium carbonate prices rose sharply last week. The demand is strong, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to take a bullish strategy with attention to position control and risk management [58][60][61]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The first domestic satellite computing power module was launched. The LME tin spread was at a discount, and the inventory increased. The import of tin concentrate in December increased year - on - year. The supply is expected to increase in 2026, but there are uncertainties. The demand is weak, and tin prices are expected to be in wide - range volatility in the short - term [62][63][65]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The port logistics of the Indonesian Qing Shan Industrial Park was suspected of monopoly. The nickel ore production quota in Indonesia is expected to be adjusted, and the global primary nickel gap is expected to be more than 100,000 metric tons. The raw material price rose, and the demand for nickel salt increased. Nickel prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices [66][67]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of the EUA main contract decreased. The EU carbon price remained high and volatile last week. The CoT data helped boost the market. The carbon price is expected to be strong in the short - term [68][69]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The production of a Kazakhstani oil field was delayed due to a power failure and export problems. The number of US oil rigs increased. The oil price rose on Friday, supported by the risk of supply disruptions and the increase in diesel cracking spreads [70][71][72]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle - chip factories continued to rise. The polyester raw material price rose strongly, and the bottle - chip factory quotation increased. The market trading atmosphere was fair, and the downstream was cautious. The industry operating rate decreased, and the inventory pressure was transferred smoothly. The processing fee is expected to recover mildly around the Spring Festival [73][75][76]. 3.2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Wildfires and rough seas restricted the operation of some ports in Chile. The short - term market is weak, and the European - line futures are expected to be weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to whether the index will be higher due to container dumping and late ship departures [77][78].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 油脂油料：需求支撑 油粕震荡偏强 （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 本周油粕价格走高，国际领涨国内，棕榈油强于豆系强于菜籽系。 美豆市场聚焦需求预估。首先压榨数据利好，市场预期生柴政策即将发布，有助于美豆压榨前景。其 次，出口需求预期分歧，变数在于中国和巴西。中国1200万吨大豆采购结束，美国预计中国仍家继续大 量采购，但也有预计中国将放缓采购。巴西大豆丰产，但1月收割进度慢，大量上市需要等到3月，给美 豆短暂喘息机会。处于对需求的乐观预期，美豆价格震荡走高中。国内方面，豆粕价格止跌上涨，现货 领涨期货。大豆进口成本走高，终端积极采购，豆粕终端需求旺盛等均提振市场。豆粕现货去库预期支 撑价格基差走强。市场对3-4月国内豆粕供需缺口大小有分歧，大豆总量充足，但节奏可能造成阶段性 紧张，取决于巴西大豆出口及国内检验速度。预计下周豆粕震荡偏强思路。期权策略，双卖策略。 油脂市场上，印尼决定推迟实施B50生物柴油，美国计划3月初公布生柴决定，生柴政策喜忧参半。市 场预期美国将增加生柴备货，基于政策落地。盘面交易 ...

农产品早报 2026-01-26 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 目前原糖价格已经跌破巴西乙醇折算价的支撑，在今年 4 月后巴西新榨季生产存在着下调甘蔗制糖比例 的可能性。等待 2 月北半球开始收榨，增产利空基本兑现以后，国际糖价可能会迎来一波反弹。国内当 前进口糖源供应逐步减少，随着糖价跌至低位水平，短线往下空间或有限，暂时观望。 【行情资讯】 棉花 周五郑州棉花期货价格震荡，郑棉5月合约收盘价报14695元/吨，较前一个交易日下跌35元/吨，或0.24%。 现货方面，中国棉花价格指数(CCIndex)3128B 报 15870 元/吨，较上个交易日上涨 31 元/吨。 组长、生鲜品研究员 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 据 UNICA 数据显示，2025 年 12 月下半月巴西中南部压榨甘蔗 217.1 万吨，同比增长 26.60%，糖产量为 5.6 万吨，同比减少 14.93%，甘蔗制糖比 21. ...

市场趋于分化 作为"十五五"规划的开局之年，2026年，投资市场的结构性特征日益显现。钱往哪里流，又该往哪里 投？关注版今天起推出"2026年钱往哪儿投"系列报道，展望市场前景，探寻市场机会。 2026年，大宗商品市场站在新一轮周期的关键节点。传统的"经济复苏—需求回升—价格上涨"线性模式 被打破，一个由地缘政治、产业转型、金融属性与政策博弈交织驱动的复杂体系正在形成。在全球经济 深度调整的背景下，大宗商品市场正在用价格语言，注释一场关于发展模式、资源配置与未来竞争力的 深刻变革，大宗商品市场正在从"宏观风向标"，进一步变成"安全温度计""产业晴雨表""金融放大器"。 代"，而是"并行"，新旧能源在较长时期内共存，任何一端的短板都会引发价格波动。对企业而言，能 源成本管理的重心正在从"低价采购"转向"稳定供给"，更重视中长期合同、跨区域采购、多能源替代与 用能效率。 金属市场再定价 长期以来，大宗商品往往呈现出较强的同涨同跌特征：全球增长预期上行，工业品普涨；衰退担忧升 温，商品普跌。但进入2026年，这种"宏观共振"正在退潮，"品种逻辑"成为主导。所谓品种逻辑，就是 每一种商品的价格更取决于自身产业链结构、 ...

Group 1: Seasonal Products - Seasonal seafood, fruits, and fresh vegetables are abundantly available as the Spring Festival approaches, enriching the dining tables of the public [1] - In county-level agricultural wholesale markets, various citrus fruits such as sugar oranges and jelly oranges are being showcased [3] - The introduction of new strawberry varieties in Shandong's agricultural wholesale market has led to increased sales [5] Group 2: Agricultural Market Dynamics - Guangxi is a major production base for autumn and winter vegetables, with around 700 tons of agricultural products being transported daily to consumers [7] - The development of cold chain logistics has enabled a wider variety of fresh vegetables to reach markets quickly, ensuring same-day and next-day delivery [7] - The seafood trading center in Fuzhou is experiencing peak trading volumes, with high-end seafood sales, such as grouper and king crab, significantly increasing as the festival approaches [9] Group 3: Home Service Industry - The demand for home cleaning services is surging as families prepare for the Spring Festival, with orders for full-house cleaning increasing by 20% to 30% weekly [12][15] - Home service companies are adapting by offering new services like pet care and storage solutions, targeting younger consumers [14][17] - Digital services are becoming integral to the home service industry, allowing consumers to easily book cleaning services through various online platforms [22] Group 4: Winter Sports and Consumer Trends - The popularity of winter sports is rising, contributing to a boost in consumer spending as schools enter winter break [25] - Skiing winter camps are experiencing a surge in participation among youth, reflecting a growing interest in winter sports [27] - New urban night skiing facilities are being developed, making skiing more accessible to residents and enhancing local recreational options [30]

作为"十五五"规划的开局之年，2026年，投资市场的结构性特征日益显现。钱往哪里流，又该往哪里 投？关注版今天起推出"2026年钱往哪儿投"系列报道，展望市场前景，探寻市场机会。 2026年，大宗商品市场站在新一轮周期的关键节点。传统的"经济复苏—需求回升—价格上涨"线性模式 被打破，一个由地缘政治、产业转型、金融属性与政策博弈交织驱动的复杂体系正在形成。在全球经济 深度调整的背景下，大宗商品市场正在用价格语言，注释一场关于发展模式、资源配置与未来竞争力的 深刻变革，大宗商品市场正在从"宏观风向标"，进一步变成"安全温度计""产业晴雨表""金融放大器"。 市场趋于分化 长期以来，大宗商品往往呈现出较强的同涨同跌特征：全球增长预期上行，工业品普涨；衰退担忧升 温，商品普跌。但进入2026年，这种"宏观共振"正在退潮，"品种逻辑"成为主导。所谓品种逻辑，就是 每一种商品的价格更取决于自身产业链结构、供给约束、政策与地缘扰动，而非简单跟随某一个宏观变 量。 其背后是三种分化在同时发生。第一种分化，发生在需求端：传统需求（地产、传统制造、燃油交通） 边际放缓，而新需求（电网升级、储能与算力基础设施、新能源车产业链）仍 ...

Core Insights - In 2025, Yunnan's import and export volume with ASEAN reached 132.08 billion yuan, marking a historical high with a year-on-year growth of 20.8% [1] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, Yunnan's total import and export volume reached 1.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 40.8% compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan [1] - Yunnan's trade partners have expanded to 193 countries and regions, with 146 of them experiencing growth in import and export activities [1] Trade Performance - In 2025, Yunnan's total goods trade import and export volume was 273.74 billion yuan, growing by 10.2%, which is 6.4 percentage points faster than the national average [1] - The import and export volume with Belt and Road countries was 235.86 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 16.1% [1] - Trade with the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa saw significant increases of 3.7%, 51.1%, and 75.6% respectively, collectively accounting for 33.4% of Yunnan's total import and export value [1] Cross-Border Trade Developments - The cross-border freight volume on the China-Laos Railway increased by 13.9%, with the value growing by 42.9% [1] - Yunnan has implemented a pilot project for the smart import of Lao cement at the first land port in the country [1] - Nine new categories of high-quality agricultural and food products from neighboring countries have been approved for import [1] Agricultural Exports - Yunnan has taken the lead in batch inspection and quarantine reforms in the country, with agricultural exports reaching 19.79 billion yuan in 2025, accounting for 21% of total exports [2] - The export scale of fresh-cut flowers and coffee ranks first in the country, while vegetables and fruits rank third [2] - Exports of "new three items" such as photovoltaic products and lithium batteries reached 3.35 billion yuan, increasing by 140% [2] - Tin ingot exports also saw a significant rise to 5.04 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 140% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The event "Media + 12221: Let the Brand Shine" held in Guangzhou aims to promote the global sales of Lechang Golden Kai Li, a premium fruit from Guangdong, through innovative media integration and agricultural branding strategies [2][3][4]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "Media + 12221" seminar and the launch of the publication "Singing the Eastern Sincerity of Lechang Golden Kai Li" took place on January 25 [2][3]. - The event focused on exploring the integration of media and agricultural products to enhance brand visibility and market reach [4][10]. Group 2: Product Highlight - Lechang Golden Kai Li is referred to as the "Hermès of plums," known for its golden flesh and sweet, juicy taste [9][25]. - The fruit has gained significant recognition, being featured in major global locations such as Times Square in New York and is now available in international markets including Indonesia, UAE, France, and the USA [30][34]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The "Media + 12221" initiative has led to a substantial increase in the farm gate price of Lechang Golden Kai Li, rising from 4.5 yuan per jin in 2021 to 10 yuan per jin, resulting in over 500 million yuan in additional income for farmers [31][32]. - The program has also significantly boosted e-commerce sales, accounting for over 60% of total sales, while reducing logistics costs [31]. Group 4: Future Directions - The local government plans to continue leveraging the "Media + 12221" model to enhance media empowerment, strengthen technology and quality, and promote the integration of agriculture, culture, and tourism [42][44]. - There is a commitment to improving mechanisms that benefit farmers and ensure that the results of industrial development are more widely shared among rural communities [43][44].